Last week's market action should be called "Revenge of Bucky." The weekly candlestick was certainly impressive and the overall "look" of the DXY the last few months is eerily similar to the 2008 lows. I will work harder this week to get some ideas about the ol' beaten down U.S. Dollar.
The S&P 500 doesn't look good at all in this position. When the best case scenario for bulls is some sort of 10% grinding rally higher followed by a 30-40% collapse, then you know which way you should be 'betting' your fiat currency.
This update is a bit more short term oriented. I think there's some traction to betting on a "new low" below 1100 in the next few weeks.
Sp500 Update 11sep11
Addendum:
There was a lot of patriotic remembrances this weekend. Not too many 'commercial' things get me that choked up, but this Budweiser re-airing did it for me. I saw it today in a 'typical' American Sports Bar. I almost shed a tear until the drunken lady behind me screamed at the top of her cigarette smoke-filled lungs: "God Bless America, Fuckers!" (Seriously)
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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.
24 comments:
Andy T
DXY had a weekly 3Lb reversal up last week. It's now trading above its monthly 3LB reversal price. Plus there's a gap higher (real gap) on the weekly chart.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Germany-Readies-Surrender-bloomberg-2533229394.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Germany Readies Surrender Over Greece
...Probably not the best day to buy the Greek 2 year...
Or from Hussman, with graphs and biting commentary:
"With the soaring level of Greek yields last week, the default probability schedule has now become white space. Except on the assumption of disastrously low recovery rates well below 40%, the probability of default, regardless of the time horizon, plots as a bunch of horizontal lines, all at 100%. Simply put, the Greek debt market is screaming "Certain default. Amésos."
Will somebody please look at this foto & tell me WHY Cam Newton is smiling (when his team just LOST a football game)...
http://fantasy-sports-nation.blogspot.com/
---
This won't be the first time you ever hear me say this... But this is the PROBLEM I see with all these 'hotshot's' that come in to the NFL...
I don't give a FF about your 422 passing yards (most by an NFL rookie debut since Otto Graham)... You're team LOST... You're paid to win football games (not compile fantasy stats - Hear that Michael Vick)?...
This is a PROFESSIONAL SPORTS LEAGUE... The franchise that pays you doesn't pay you to make fantasy footballers happy or sad... They PAY YOU TO WIN GAMES & bring CHAMPIONSHIPS to your team & city...
OK... I'm glad we've covered that now...
You know??? This is PERFECT... I was watching some of the EAGLES-RAMS game yesterday & there was some banter going on from one of the commentators in the network studio (I think it was Deion Sanders) & Phil Sims (who was the game commentator in the booth)...
At one point, while Sanders was watching Michael Vick make a play, he says to Sims... "See - don't you wish you could do that when you were playing"?... Sims didn't answer, but his colleague jumped right in & said... "Sims is just here polishing up his Super Bowl ring while you said that"...
Oh snap!
Then, not missing a step... Sims said... "Next week I'll bring my OTHER one to polish"...
Oh snap! II
"your" team list... (& I'm not smiling)
I caught that exchange CV
exactly....
@Andy (Watercooler Mondays)
I sent you a trade proposal in our fantasy league...
Look it over &/or make a counter offer... (I don't know how you're looking to structure your team yet)...
After all... this is TRADERS-Anonymous... lol
I'm still trying to figure how the markets went positive. ES futures were down 10 right before the open.
@ben
I'm glad you caught that exchange...
You (more than most people at large) ought to be able to appreciate the dynamic...
You're a PRO at what you do... You're paid to produce results in a way that go beyond one good game (or one good trade)...
& ultimately you're paid on WINS & LOSSES...
Can Newton & Michael Vick (until proven otherwise), are nothing more than these people like Kass (or any "Fast Traders") who go on CNBS... Make a call... Take credit if it's right... But have no accountability for the ones that go wrong...
CV,
I'm not sure if it was Sanders on that game or not I changed over and mostly watched the Ravens game pretty early on.
your team looked really good man, really good. They just abused the Steelers. I really think a lot of games were interesting this week.
I get annoyed hearing stuff like that from the likes of a Cris Carter, at least if it was D. Sanders he's won a couple rings, still a dumb thing to say though
Phil Simms doesn't need to wish he could do anything, he won the ultimate prize
Vick hasn't, period.
and yeah, Cam had a huge game, but I'm betting Steve Smith won't be doing that against every defense they see this year
no
Mark Zandi is out claiming the new proposal from O would "add 2 million jobs"
should I even bother saying something smart-ass now?
Mark Zandi....pffffft
MEH is so right, Sociopath couldn't be more fitting for this guy
Zandi looks to me like he just walked off the set of the 'Night of the Living Dead'...
..."add 2 million jobs"...
So let's see... What's the monthly total of the BIRTH/DEATH adjustment multiply that by the number of months Obama still has in office (assuming he gets re-elected)...
Then... If the numbers don't work... Just say that the timeframe on adding the 2 million jobs extends to 2030 or something (& or, 'fudge' the B/D adjustment)...
Then... way after the fact... when nobody remembers or cares what you ever said or did... The numbers work (because there are still no jobs, but you can say you created them)...
Zandi-nomics...
looking at the trade proposal. will shoot you backs something tomorrow AM
mark zandi = tool.
BTW...
Despite what I said about Cam Newton... I picked him up in my fantasy leagues...
I could give a rats ass about whether he wins a ring, or brings Carolina a championship... All I care about is that SOMEBODY brings CV a championship in fantasy football...
I can't take Mike Vick... EVER... On philosophical grounds... But Cam Newton hasn't killed any dogs yet... So I don't mind HIM putting up fantasy numbers...
When you put up those kind of numbers... ON THE ROAD... In your first NFL game ever... Umm... Well... You ought to be able to do it again (in spots)...
& since Carolina will probably be crappy anyway, then they may rely on him to make some things happen...
Plus... My WHOLE TEAM (in the league with ben & Andy), is AUTOPICKED (due to draft day technical problems)...
I have to take some chances & make some drastic moves in order to HOPE to compete...
""I'm still trying to figure how the markets went positive""
AR, prolly the same reason a company with -1.64 EPS still stays above $7, and it's up today, all day. LOL, BAC starts cutting 30,000 jobs same day PrezØ presents his jobs bill, or should I say futures taxpayers bill.
C
ØBAMA
R
R
U
P
T
Had a good laff at this chart... country corruption index
I wouldn't mind being locked in a 1000 point trading range forever.
I reckon I could make money pretty easily between SPX 1100-1200.
A bit like being locked in an elevator with Karen.
Just like heaven.
speaking of spoiled players...
Serena Williams...
nice.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XGFBP22EMM
That umpire was surely a racist...
In any case... At least Serena didn't jump up into the umps chair...
In South Florida... Here's how they handle it when they don't like an official's call...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auBDhAJHeHA
Oh man. That's a rough refereeing gig there....
geez.
sports stars are somewhat like traders in that often when they make a mistake they first look to blame the ref, ump, whatever
no different than the trader that loses money because of the Fed, the PPT, gnomes, etc.
the whole parents coming on the field to physically attack someone that makes a call, even if it's a bad call
pathetic
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