3mth vs Overnight Libor (daily info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 0.187
rev= 0.170; mid= 0.179
This spread is really starting to blow out. It's back to levels not seen since August 2010. I guess all is not well after all.
Comparative Currency Performance
The fiat currencies are not in the same league as gold. It's up 162.34% since January 2007. The closest currency is the Swiss Franc which is up 53.71%. The laggard is…DXY which is down 11.94%.
56 comments:
Skank and Zandi comedy hour in full force.
http://news.yahoo.com/tsunami-warning-alaskas-aleutians-quake-113410272.html
CNBS?
Fed taking on GS.
USG taking on TBTF.
Funny what happens when your poll numbers are in the toilet.
ZERO!!!
Private added 17k
Temp added 4.7k
Weekly hours -0.1 to 34.2
Participation rate +0.1 to 64.0
Unemployment rate 9.1% (unchanged)
U6 +0.1 to 16.2%
zandi and swank have never even come close on their projections, it would seem the average margin of error for both is 100%
does this cross their mind when they sit down each month to "run the numbers"
it's hilarious from where I'm sitting, if I were them though, I'd be ashamed of myself and not sure that I could keep going on tv and smiling. Wow.
USS BAC
Yeah...
selling any number above 1200 was a good idea....at least so far.
What I find odd is that TICK hasn't gone below 1000.
We may be in the final days of algos levitating the market. Which one of them would really give the SEC their actual code? One of the best ways to hinder HFT is to institute a mandatory holding period of all trades.
GS back to late March 2009 levels.
Low from earlier taken out (around 9:45AM ET). Time to exit before the long weekend is running out.
@ben22
agreed on zandi.
terrible.
he speaks without saying anything most of the time.
"...if I were them though, I'd be ashamed of myself and not sure that I could keep going on tv and smiling. Wow..."
McB,
but, that's, just, it..
you, actually, are, quite, different from the 'Skank and Zandi'-style "Clowns"/"Actors"/"Pretenders"..
you know, it's difficult to find the right Words, for them..
even, to Call them "Ho's", sullies one of the oldest Professions..
"Sociopaths" is, probably, the most accurate..
AAIP
AR, selling some here and there. Although it may seem like my trades are erratic, or too early... it's days like today that make it all worth while :)
BAC puts... got in to early, then doubled-doubled down... $ha-$hing! (I POMP'd on top of my POMP!) ok, actually I martingaled it but BAC is shit... they should be selling BAC shares at the checkout stand in the $0.99 store, right next to the phone cards. THX for the gift Uncle Warren!
GLD, well, up 80%+ since the 25th, bot more a couple days later.
FXE, may be my most fav trades, buy puts above 144ish, always a win last few months.
UNG calls, a little up one day, a little down the next...pfft, prolly gonna exit soon... no action other than it getting smacked down again today. my thinking natty won't ever stay below $4 for long isn't working this time.
Got in and out of SPXU calls to fast... grrr, oh well.
ALL in all a great week, wish all were like this.
B22, I listen to cnbs on XM, believe me, it better to only listen to them and not see their faces. Try it, put cardboard on your TV, it's better :)
Well, I'm glad I'm not the only one that thinks that about them
I swear it's got to be 8-9 months in a row now and those two are always on during NFP and they are always wildly wrong. somebody in the consensus according to bloomberg had -5,000. Why not bring that person in and ask them why?
One of my office mates pointed out to me how hilarious it is that Zandi was talking about what he tought Obama would say next thursday and his comment was that they'll extend the payroll tax cut for starters....
he was then asked "what do your models tell you that means for GDP?"
it's like, why are people asking this guy what his models say?
He just blew the jobs number for the n-th month in a row and the first question you ask is what his models tell us about GDP?
really?
market looking fugly today but Neely's words keep ringing in my ears
"it's concerning the move down started on bad news"
it seems there are tons of people in the camp for the August lows to be tested at minimum.
Hard really to disagree with that but an awful lot of people seem to think it.
ben22
Now do you see why I don't like to trade off of spinning tops? Need to wait for the direction to appear.
Zandi was just on Bloomberg. TV was on mute.
What I have noticed today is that every push higher is quickly followed by heavy selling.
some fibo stuff to ponder:
2000 + 0 = 2000 Orthodox Top/cycle degree min.
2000 + 1 = 2001 9/11, acceleration of bear
2000 + 2 = 2002 Bear Market Lows
2000 + 3 = 2003 Confirmation of new bull mkt
2000 + 5 = 2005 Katrina, weakest of 03-07 bull
2000 + 8 = 2008 Self explanatory
2000 + 13 = 2013 ???
2007 + 0 = 2007 Nominal Top
2007 + 1 = 2008 Self Explanatory
2007 + 2 = 2009 Bear market lows, QE1
2007 + 3 = 2010 Flash Crash, QE2
2007 + 5 = 2012 ?
Also, I keep seeing 2017 and 2021 come up all over various cycle dates using orthodox and nominal tops of the 1900's as I continue to play with the numbers. those seem as though they will be very important years + or - 1.
For those familiar with the Benner cycle, EWI gets really pissy if you ever ask them about it because they were convinced 1987 would be like 1929-1933 based on Benner, I've written them thre times about it and they responses are a bit aggressive each time....it's like, well then why's it still in the updated EWP's then?
It should be mentioned that this doesn't make sense though that it would have played out that way in 1987. Why?, the reason is that much like the nautilus shell, the further the shell extends outward the less it will conform to fibonacci ratios. I know that in textbooks they don't picture them that way but the textbooks are mathematical theory, the shell is reality. People that argue that "fibos never work" would do well to remember that fact.
anyway, it's true that the larger the wave the less it will conform to fibo, such as a supercycle wave, much in the same way that the larger tails of spirals in a spiral galaxy will not coform to fibo as well either and the same way with a million other things in nature. or take a human that is abormally large or small, their bodies will not match the fibonacci ratios that the average person will have. One might even wonder if those amongst us that are extremely smart might have a slightly different DNA make-up with regard to fibo than the rest of us. Stuff to think about....
anyway, the long term benner cycle wouldn't match the fibo in the same way as 29-33 for that extact reason is my rationale
the benner cycle has painted some important near term dates if one extrapolates out the figures presented in the EWP book.
it might be worth a look
"Now do you see why I don't like to trade off of spinning tops? Need to wait for the direction to appear."
Indeed, makes a lot of sense.
Dish now will offer streaming service. Talk about kicking a man when he's down.
"somebody in the consensus according to bloomberg had -5,000. Why not bring that person in and ask them why?"
also, we all know the answer. I think they call this a rhetorical question....
TICK & PC Ratio seem to indicate the selling for the day isn't over...
Can't have truth tellers ruin the good vibe before the long weekend.
One of my office mates pointed out to me how hilarious it is that Zandi was talking about what he tought Obama would say next thursday and his comment was that they'll extend the payroll tax cut for starters....
he was then asked "what do your models tell you that means for GDP?"
it's like, why are people asking this guy what his models say?
---
I guess it doesn't stop folks from making 'bets' on the outcome... though... does it?
This is wrong but does Romer remind anyone of Jabba the Hut? She's on Bloomberg right now.
In an 'aggregate' sense... of course...
CV
It's not the weight. It's the facial features.
"I guess it doesn't stop folks from making 'bets' on the outcome... though... does it?"
why would it?
Actually Ra, that's a lot closer to right than wrong
Whenever I go to a big advisor dinner I feel like I'm at the Star Wars bar
@Amen
If you want... I'll lay up a WEEKEND thread & have it launch tomorrow morning at 7 or 8 AM...
It's football season... It's all easy street now for cv...
---
Plus... Cv has Doug Flutie's daughter (Alexa) helping me out on this one... So it's a slam dunk
http://fantasy-sports-nation.blogspot.com/
LOL... So Øbama is going to now help out the peeps that don't have electricity from when the hurricane their town. ...wtf, he can't even fix the crap he said he would while campaigning...pfft
does Romer remind anyone of Jabba the Hut?
Ummm... yes...
witness CV's 'multiple' threads with Romer in them last year (mostly - which featured donut references)...
I think if I'd have 'monetized' this blog last year with 'ad sense'... I mighta made a million from Dunkin' Donuts clickthrus alone...
Figures. I see someone is trying to get the SPX under 2.00% before the close.
@ben22
"why would it?"
EXACTLY!
& since the "fun never stops"... why should it stop at 4PM on Fridays???
That's why the world (even you) needs...
http://fantasy-sports-nation.blogspot.com/
How long before BAC is under Buffett's price?
...it's not Labor Day weekend in Europe.
""Plus... Cv has Doug Flutie's daughter (Alexa) helping me out on this one... So it's a slam dunk""
cv, put a helmet on her and she'd be ok ;)
CV,
I was just there this morning
"cv, put a helmet on her and she'd be ok"
Are you trying to say she plays for the Bengals?
(good uniform, bad helmet, this is preferred at PSU over the more commono "butterface")
I see Goldman et al. are pushing the angle that the FED HAS TO INTERVENE. Possible clues from Bernocchio's speech on Thursday.
CV
She looks pissed off.
@ben
"butterface"... LOL
Last time I hear that... it was applied to Tiffany-Amber Thiessen (appropriately so)...
But look... If QQQQ (& co.) want to kick Alexa Flutie out of bed for eating crackers... Then...
Please... Marvel us all with your 'Supermodel squeezes' in your home stable...
I mean your 'actual' home stable...
@Amen
it's not Labor Day weekend in Europe...
---
That's prolly what Hugh Hendry is thinking in this moment...
Naw... It's 9PM in the UK right now... He's prolly toasted on vodka mixers...
LOL cv, wuz kid'n, I'd need meds before, during AND after if I hooked up with her.
...which means 'Alexa Flutie' prolly looks pretty good to him right about this moment...
See peeps?
U have to cover ALL bases... (& CV means that 'literally')...
AR, Buffy's price was 7.14?... it'll be there soon enough.
out of almost all trades for the long weekend, cept some BAC Oct/Nov $7 puts and 5 Oct GLD 175 calls.
@QQQQ
well from what I hear... She's "19" (not "18")...
So she's prolly way out of your league... :-)
cv, I get ya... I use to look at 18 y/o, now I look at 36 y/o, won't be long before I'm look'n at 56 y/o!
@qqqq
When you get to 56... do a 'trade in' for 3x18...
Words of wisdom...
I'm back
just to remind you all, you'll probably get a lot of magic insight on Thursday about what companies are going to "create jobs".....thanks to the government. Just like this:
"Last year, we made the largest investment in basic research funding in history -– (applause) -- an investment that could lead to the world's cheapest solar cells or treatment that kills cancer cells but leaves healthy ones untouched. And no area is more ripe for such innovation than energy. You can see the results of last year's investments in clean energy -– in the North Carolina company that will create 1,200 jobs nationwide helping to make advanced batteries; or in the California business that will put a thousand people to work making solar panels."
What California business would that be? Oh right, this one:
https://lpo.energy.gov/?projects=solyndra-inc
problem is of course, they just went bankrupt.
new thread
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