A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
"Will someone step up and keep me from crying?"
Creditcane™: My troops are memorizing Invictus as we prepare.
SPX
Spinning top day (possible evening star). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). Tested and held the 50.0% retrace (1204.58). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1254.05). QE2infinity. Back above daily & weekly mids but still below monthly 3LB reversal.
DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (73.51). Failing the 38.2% minor retrace (74.40). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.75).
VIX
Doji day (possible bullish doji star). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). Failing its 0.0% retrace (45.40). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (33.51). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.25). Escaped the "extreme fear" zone.
GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (1828.28). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1891.90). Must have the precious.
EURCHF
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (1.1717). Tested and held SMA(55). New high on daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.1445).
JNK
Spinning top day (possible bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). Holding its 38.2% retrace (38.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.59).
10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (20.92). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.71).
WTI
Bullish short day. Still above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (80.32). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (88.47). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 92.08).
SILVER
Spinning top day. Holding above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (40.74). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.94).
BKX
Bearish short day (possible bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (39.61). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 35.49).
HYG/LQD
Bullish short day. Holding above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of its 0.0% retrace (0.7427). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (0.7682). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7910).
USDJPY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (76.561). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.46).
CRB
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (337.22). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 316.12).
IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNED.
11 comments:
I'm friggin' amazed, that among all the sturm and drang related to the U.S. Dollar and QE3...etc, etc...
The DXY has been in narrow range congestion for nearly 4 MONTHS!
Crazy.
Andy
did you have any ideas on the general structure of the Z wave
I think you were originally thinking it'd be 38.2 of the Y, is that right?
a basic 5-3-5, perhaps some sort of diametric
Or did you punt that count completely at this point?
I was also curious if you still keep charts on AAPL
I've got some work I'd like to share with you if so
please share whatever you have on Apple. wud love to see it.
oh, I'm not sure if I'm bold enough to put it up on a blog, but in an email....ha!
because what I'd say is probably worthy of public ridicule
I love apple, it's an awesome company, I use lots of their products
but you know, I might be inclined to fade the beast in 4-5 months.
in re: S&P500 wave count.
It's difficult for me to say where that last e-wave ended, but if it ended where I think it did, then the 38.2% of y=z would target 1252....
I really like the idea of scale up selling the s&p....we probably have a little bit of time on our side here, but I would be "loaded" short into 1250....
Thx AR/AT for the charts!
I keep hearing more and more about the FAA dudes that got furloughed won't get paid for the weeks they we off. Most didn't apply for unemployment benefits thinking they would get free backpay. So sad, to bad.
Also, there's chatter about another furlough end of fiscal year. I give the Oman less than a year before he's asking for more $,$$$,$$$,$$$,$$$.¢¢
Gold, it's what's for breakfast!
I've got 1259-1266 on the $spx
I've seen some calls for 1280...I've seen some calls for potentially 900 by the end of September!
we'll see....
SPX possible highs 1251.36 to 1256.87 (the SMA55 & SMA13). But it has to close above 1235.92 (38.2% retrace first.
Waiting for the next act in the circus. I have no conviction.
Amusing interview with Bill Gross on Kudlow and Company this evening. Gross says that junk bonds are terrible in a low growth environment.
I am curious about your opinions on junk in a low growth environment. My opinion is the opposite of Gross'. I think that equities are bad because the multiples have to compress, but junk bonds just need to be paid back, which companies can do in a low growth environment. At these rates, as long as there aren't massive defaults, you get the equity market premium with less risk (in my opinion). Taxes are the great equalizer here, but if you have IRAs and Roth IRAs, you can shelter some of it.
Speaking of Bill Gross, check out the "catalogue notes & provenance" link here:
http://www.sothebys.com/en/catalogues/ecatalogue.html/2011/the-philatelic-collection-of-lord-steinberg-great-britain-mint-multiples#/r=/en/ecat.fhtml.L11841.html+r.m=/en/ecat.lot.L11841.html/11/
I guess government paper really holds an allure for some folks. Personally, I hold pannapictagraphists in higher esteem than philatelists..
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