The weekly candlestick tells the tale of the week:
I don't think it can be called a classic "Hammer Bottom" because the body is still red, but the image certainly suggests a temporary selling climax and some minor capitulation.
The wave count also suggests some sort of shorter term bottom. I'm expecting volatility to fall in the next few weeks as we witness a corrective, grinding type of move back towards the 1200s. As was the suggestion last week, longer term players should be "punching out" of this market on any good rallies, if not being completely "out" of the market already.
Short term traders can attempt to be long this market, but it's a dangerous trade. Please use 1156 and 1118 for support points/stop loss levels on any 'fast' length.
SP500 Update 13AUG11
ADDENDA
I wonder if this the "low" in the Tiger Woods cycle? Can it get any worse for that guy? Last week his just fired caddie wins a big event with Adam Scott. This week he shoots some really ugly golf and misses the cut at the PGA Championship. If I were Tiger Woods' "Life Coach" I would suggest the following things:
1) Focus on your dwindling financial situation; restructure your businesses and assume much smaller cash flows for the rest of your life.
2) Take the ENTIRE 2012 Season Off. Recommit to your game outside of the bright lights of Television. Maybe play a few International events where they PAY you to show up....
3) Come back fresh and clean in 2013 with a clear head and clean game.
Bottom Line: It's "OK" to disappear from your sport for a little while. Other great athletes have done this and come back stronger. Michael Jordan and Andre Aggasi come to mind.....
20 comments:
Great work, Andy.
Your count is incredible on many levels. The fibo's are near perfect matches on daily and weekly.
If this plays out as you forsee, a lot of people are going to be burned.
When anecdotal stories from a guy like Ben who is looking after OPM is receiving calls about buying this dip, it is not going to end good. This should have caused mass panic but after last year's 'flash', 2008, and the tech bubble, I guess people are conditioned over the last 10 years to think this is 'normal' or routine or a great opportunity (like here: http://mobile.cnbc.com/us_news/44135130)
CNBC reporting stocks are cheap but not cheerful.
nice Ideas, on the Markets, AT..
you wwere, certainly, 'in the Ballpark', :) last week, something tells me that these, too, will be, as well..
~~~
"...Today, we take for granted knowledge about the deadly effects of nuclear weapons. In fact, this knowledge was hard-won, and not with the aid of government grants and oversight but quite the opposite. Doctors and researchers had to fight the official keepers of public opinion in order to first discover and then reveal the truth about the effects of these weapons.
In the fall of 1945, the U.S. Army Surgeons Investigation Team declared that all people who were expected to die from radiation effects of the bomb had already died and that no new cases would be acknowledged. Hospitals put out optimistic reports, downplaying the concerns of survivors, and telling pregnant women not to worry about any ill effects on their unborn babies. Doctors like Dr. Fumio Shigeto, the director of the Hiroshima Red Cross Hospital, surrounded by a society that seemed hell-bent on denying the effects of the bombs, worked to document the controversial connection between bomb exposure and leukemia. Even after the ban on discussing such things had been lifted, these doctors came under harsh criticism from the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission for making their concerns public.
The story of those who cared for the bomb’s victims is emphatically a story of people, not institutions: "The leading role in A-bomb medical care," writes Oe, "was not taken by the national government; quite the opposite, it was started with virtually no initial resources through the energy and efforts of the unbowing, persevering local people who had to contend with reluctant national authorities every step of the way." The A-Bomb Hospital which Dr. Shigeto also ran, says Oe, ..".was not built by, nor is it maintained by, the national government. It was built with proceeds from the New Year’s postal lottery."
Dr. Shigeto – a man with "neither too little nor too much hope" – had arrived in Hiroshima only a week before the bombing. Following the blast, he worked tirelessly to understand its effects on his patients:..."
http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=36193
Japanese Burning Radioactive Materials Causing ‘Rainouts’ Around Japan and Elsewhere in Northern Hemisphere
August 15th, 2011
Via: Washington’s Blog:
Nuclear expert Arnie Gundersen says in a new interview that the Japanese are burning radioactive waste from Fukushima. This ends up not only in neighboring prefectures, but in Hawaii, British Columbia, Oregon, Washington and California.
Radioactive rain-outs were documented recently in British Columbia and Oklahoma with geiger counters.
Gundersen is working with scientists who will publish a paper soon definitively debunking the Canadian and American health officials claims that only harmless levels of radiation are being released...."
http://cryptogon.com/?p=24229
AAIP
Nice presentation AT, as always.
Pretty much sticking with your count all around, it has been the best road map for months.
Anyone notice that neither CNBS or BloomBS mentioned the horrendous Empire State Mfg report when it was released?
Sorry, was checked out all Sunday afternoon...
Ended up introducing the game of golf to my 12 year old daughter....
Was a long afternoon on the course...
But, good bonding experience.
Didn't get to the gold/silver.
Funny. The first 30 min volume on SPY keeps decreasing. Thur 22.86m, Fri 13.55m, Mon 6.37m. Of course that means the market is trading higher (/sarc).
@Andy @ben
I checked with Booey to see if I could get you guys co-opted into his $100 entry FF league...
He says OK, but here's the deal... It's going to be a 10 team league & already 8 teams are signed in & registered... (don't bother asking if he wants to expand it to 12 - no dice)...
Another friend of mine in the league also has 2 guys that might want in...
Bottom line is this... First ones to register get the spots... That's it... It's a YAHOO league (& Yahoo is down for 10 hours today in the FF dept due to site maintenance)...
I sent BOTH of you an e-mail with the league number & password for the league to register a team... Both of you ought to have yahoo accounts cause that's where my league was the past 2 years...
See what you can do to sign up... If its already full, I can't help you there...
The draft is Sept 4 (Labor day weekend Sunday at 9PM est - so keep that in mind before committing)...
CV
@ben @Andy
PS... Most of the guys in the league are pretty seasoned fantasy players (as you remember Booey was in our league last year & he's not an easy out)...
Good news is that if you get in... It may also open you up for Fantasy Baseball next year if you wanted (another cash league)...
Amen:
I suspect you've noticed as I have the global fall in industrial production the last couple of months...and Hussman today says it is 100% certain we are heading into another recession...
http://www.rttnews.com/CorpInfo/EconomicCalendar.aspx
the decrease in industrial output globally is striking...
BinT
Just looked at the IP of China, Great Britain, France and the EMU. All were lower M-o-M and WTE.
It appears the new mantra for gold is BTFD!!!
AT,
re: Gold & Silver
some things are more Important, than Bullion..
w/'Golf', and 'Introductions' to it..
if she shows any Interest, it may be a good Idea to sign her up for an age-group specific 'Clinic' w/ a decent Instructor--(if one can be found down thataway..)
Reason being, ~"Golf is Hard", and, the, additional, "Social"-element may give her another facet, through which, to 'enjoy the Game' ..
also, you could 'sign her up'...
https://members.usga.org/ (gets her a 'Free' Hat, too~)
the "Rules of Golf" is a + (as with the Clinic)
and, here
http://www.usga.org/Etiquette.aspx?id=7790#show=Rules.aspx%3Fid%3D7788
is the biggest Reason for the 'Clinic'..easier, I think to hear about 'Rules' & 'Etiquette', for starters/at the start, from a 'non-affiliated' third party..
also, this, from the USGA, as well..
http://www.juniorlinks.com/Detail.aspx?id=104&libID=125
past that, Good Luck, hope she takes a liking to it, there's much to be derived from it..
AAIP
I wonder if someone at the exchanges is walking around with a hat that says "1200 or bust".
@Amen(12:36)
Yeah... "new" as in pretty much since 1972...
@Andy
CV can teach her "club throwing" & "cussing" & all the other finer aspects of the game when she's ready...
I can also teach anyone who is interested how to win a $10 nassau with only $5 in your pocket...
"teach anyone..."
cv--
if that twere True..
you're in the wrong Racket..
and, should be hanging up you Fantasy Football 'Cleats' to avail yourself to the 'opportunity' ...
also, lay the (h/t) to Lee Trevino..~
ibid.
At the risk of sounding like a pothead (I'm not, honest,really...all things in moderation)...one can eliminate cussing, club throwing, and more importantly, a couple of strokes from your game...
by the simple expedient of tucking a couple of spliffs in your bag and losing a ball in the bush off the first fairway.
So close and yet so far as 1204.58 is the 50.0% retrace. Don't get me wrong. There was a big push at the close. Just not enough.
@Mel.
Bwahahahahaha.
That's hilarious.
"spliffs?" I had never heard that name before.
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