SWI (Swiss Mrkt Idx) (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 5172.06
rev= 5974.30; mid= 5573.18
It's bad enough that the Swiss Franc is still rising as the Swiss stock market plumbs new lows. It's below all SMA's. It's trying to close below its 50.0% minor retrace (5253.66). Now we find out the SNB needed the swap lines from the Fed. If their currency comes into question then "Who Can You Run To".
CAC 40 (weekly info)
WEEKLY CONFIRMATION new low 3213.88
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 3213.88
rev= 4157.14; mid= 3685.51
France is having problems of their own as this week may close below its 61.8% retrace. It's already below all SMA's. A lower close this week will have the weekly 3LB trending down. Might start hearing more of this "Voulez-vous coucher avec moi ce soiree?" and less worrying about the sad state of affairs.
DAX (weekly info)
WEEKLY CONFIRMATION new low 5997.74
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 5997.74
rev= 7514.46; mid= 6756.10
The economic results coming out of Germany pretty much says that the help for the EU is now in its waning stages. The DAX is now below all SMA's. It broke below its 38.2% retrace and may close the week below its 50.0% retrace. A lower close this week will have the weekly 3LB trending down. Seems like economic bad news is taking a "Trans Europe Express" train throughout the continent.
31 comments:
interesting times. completely invested for Great Contraction part II....
morning
here is another chart that should give longer term players caution:
http://mediacdn.disqus.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/137/8688/original.jpg
among other signals, consider this with the fact that long term investors also got the 8/2/11 dow theory sell signal, first one since November 2007.
*Not my chart
Try this link instead
Also, Dealbreaker had this up yesterday, maybe worth a look as its on the serious side:
http://dealbreaker.com/2011/08/fed-researchers-say-europe-borrowed-from-china-to-buy-crappy-american-mortgages/
The gold, it rises. Very powerful.
guest on CNBC just revealed what we really, really need
just a housing stimulus.....that'd solve all our problems
apparently his congressperson liked the idea so much he's going to present a bill, wow!
off to rip the rest of my hair out now
Spoonman! We've been waiting for you to chime in on the precious.
USDJPY down to 76.30. Calling BOJ. Pick up the phone. We know you're there.
CV's 2011 NFL Pre-season Picks (sponsored by GOLD - it's what's for dinner - even though you can't eat it)
I hit both of my picks last night (including a 2 unit pick on the Pats...
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2011/08/morning-corner-81811.html?showComment=1313689320149#c8571446030817265264
Which gets me back into the plus column (on unit picks), & takes me to 5-2 overall for the pre-season & on a 5 game winning streak)... Winning streaks always get peoples attention (even if your inclination is to fade them)...
--- Friday Night Games - (8/19) ---
Washington (-4) at Indianapolis
This seems like a nutty line to the casual observer, but the "casual observer" is someone who doesn't follow trends an as result is often separated from his money...
Mike Shanahan (going all the way back to 1997 & before), for some reason, puts a lot of stock into winning pre-season games... His record is one of the best pre-season ones of any active (or former) head coach... Jim Caldwell, OTOH, is 1-8 in the pre-season, an still has no idea as to when Peyton Manning will return to the practive field... The last thing Caldwell needs is to put players at risk of injury before the season starts in a division that the Colts can practically win in their sleep...
If the ENTIRE Redskins team went down with injuries, it actually might be an IMPROVEMENT...
Anyway, this game ought to be different though from an INTERESTED Rex Grossman torching a
DISINTERESTED Steeler defense last week (the Steelers got MORE interested last night & picked off Mike Vick 3 times [yeah - THAT Mike Vick - the one who thought he'd be better off with Cincy or the Bills]... dog knows there's still a chance!!! & if he went to Cincy, he'd get to face Troy Polamalu TWICE a season)...
Anyway - Shanahan is going to roll out John Beck here... Probably a big waste of time, but you know how it is... He must have gone to the Nancy Pelosi school of decision making (we have to PASS this bill to see what's in it)...
All in all... The line is probably right (which means NO BET)...
Carolina at Miami (-5.5)
I told you all last week NOT to trust Tony Sparano (how could ANYBODY trust a name like 'Sparano' unless you were his pizza or canoli delivery boy waiting for a tip)?
Last week, he said that playing Atlanta was just like an intrasquad game (& folks trusted that piece of wisdom like 'Hope & Change', 'hoped' the Falcons would cover & ended up with only pocket change when the bookie took their hundo...
Still... 5 & a half points are a lot to GIVE here for a team that has Chad Henne at QB who gets booed louder than:
- Shapiro at a "the U" alumni rally
- Le Bron James at the Cleveland Cavaliers arena
- Luther Campbell at a KKK rally
Ron Rivera says he's going to play Cam Newton for a half... I just don't know, I'd be tempted for a play on Carolina here, but I suppose I'll pass...
---other games to be posted later---
Detroit at Cleveland (-2)
Kansas City at Baltimore (-6.5)
Arizona at Green Bay (-7)
Atlanta at Jacksonville (-3)
Remember Germany?
PPI
MoM 0.7% previous 0.1%
YoY 5.8% previous 5.6%
CV's 2011 NFL Preseason Picks (continued)
---
Detroit at Cleveland (-2)
The Lions looked pretty impressive dismantling the Bengals last week (you know - THOSE Bengals - the ones that Mike Vick would have chosen to play for OVER the Eagles, so that inbetween the 2 games a year that Troy Polamalu picked him off 3 times each, he could have Ndamukong Suh come by & rip his head like he did to Andy Dalton last week...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3qobyvv1AI
(I won't bother to mention Ray Lewis & the Ravens - "Any dogs in the house"???)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Usze6_KAc0s
Well anyway... Back to the game at hand, & Namukong, for that matter... You know, for the Browns, Colt McCoy looked pretty good last week vs. the Packers (which CV had for a unit)... But Colt better not screw up & wear the Jake Delhomme jersey number...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8mt83ugqDI
I'm telling you... If I'm Jim Schwartz... I don't even PLAY Suh in this game (for fear of Fritz Shurmer sending in a hit squad of 'to be cut' taxi squadders to cut block him an put him in a knee brace for the rest of the season)...
I actually LIKE both of these teams (& plan on making some money with both of them when the regular season starts)... But here they cancel each other out...
Kansas City at Baltimore (-6.5)
Arizona at Green Bay (-7)
Atlanta at Jacksonville (-3)
CV's 2011 NFL Preseason Picks (continued)
---
Kansas City at Baltimore (-6.5)
In the press conference after the Ravens lost to the Eagles last week, Jim Harbaugh looked pretty upbeat...
He wasn't upset about the loss (maybe if he was CV & had 3 units on the game, he'd have been a little more pissed)...
Truth is... Ravens are just keeping things on the steady... They're not a team that's going to WOW anyone... They just take care of business when it counts (except against the Steelers)...
The Ravens totally annihilated the Chiefs (in KC) in the playoffs last year...
What REALLY sucked about the Chiefs winning their division (with an easy schedule) last year was that the CHARGERS came in 2nd... Which means, the RAVENS, have to play a '2nd place' non-divisional scheule (usually good - but this year it means a trip to San diego late in the year instead of what would probably be an automatic win vs. KC (sans Charlie Weis)...
The Chiefs are going to regress & the Ravens will end up where they usually do (winning playoff games on the road)...
Gotta pass on this line though...
---
Arizona at Green Bay (-7)
Atlanta at Jacksonville (-3)
@Ra,
I'm wondering if we get some sort of piercing candle today
"The Chiefs are going to regress....
here, let me finish that for you
.....and Da Raiderz are going to win the division!
ben22
That would mean a close above 1165.14 on the SPX to make a piercing candle. I'm thinking bullish thrusting (minor victory for the bulls) or the bears take over and it becomes a bearish long day.
CV's 2011 NFL Preseason Picks (continued)
---
Arizona at Green Bay (-7)
I've stated clearly that I think Kevin Kolb is the "right fit" in Arizona & that the Cardinals will get back to their winning ways (which means 8-8 - lol)... But which ALSO is usually good enough to win the NFC West and get some punk ass team from the East to underestimate you while they're looking to gameplan for the Packers the following week...
Oh yeah... The Packers (good segue there)...
I'm a little disturbed that Jermichael Finley isn't on the playing field yet... The Packers are going to be solid, but let's face the facts, it wasn't just TALENT that got them to the SuperBowl last year (it was a little luck - even though they had their share of bad luck early in the season with injuries)...
Still... They've largely forgotton the 'bad bounces' by now, & the key is going to be how HUNGRY they are to overcome them when they arrive...
I don't think I'd be laying 7 points here (in fact, if the bookmakers are determined to make people OVERPAY for the Pack this year - I'll gladly fade that action)...
But I can't yet put enough faith in the Cards just yet until the 1st team offense really gets it going... It was mostly the scrubs who beat the Raiders last week...
@ben
I'm not as keen on the Raiders as I was earlier this year...
I'll give you two words... 'Nnamdi Asamogha'...
Look - The Chargers lost TWICE to the Raiders (largely because Vincent Jackson wasn't on the field until week 12 - & the Raiders blocked two punts in the end zone)...
The Chargers will 'fix' all that... The difference will be the two game swing (Chargers play a 2nd place schedule while the Raiders play a 3rd place schedule - which gives them a slight advantage because, playing the AFC North & South
Chargers get: Baltimore, Jacksonville
Raiders get: Cleveland, Houston
All the rest evens out...
It'll all probably be decided on New Year's day... Week 17... Chargers @ Raiders...
Ra,
Yeah, the thrusting candle might be more likely but I dont' think a close above the 50% of yesterdays real body is totally out of the question
it seemed to me a lot of peopple on the boards were pressing shorts near the close yesterday, that might provide some more juice on the upside.
CV,
Yeah, can't disagree with anything you say there, I'm biased since its my team, they are getting a lot better though, it's been a lot of rough years lately.
CV's 2011 NFL Preseason Picks (continued)
---
Atlanta at Jacksonville (-3)
Yes, CV is finally going to reach into his wallet & lay down a bet... I'll take the FALCONS & the points here...
The Jags looked absolutely miserable vs. the Pats last week... I don't think they were as good of a team as their record inicated last year (punctuated by lucky wins like this)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlvOUG8nuZ4
Which broke a lot of FF <3's in the process...
Now - with figuring out whether or not Blaine Gabbert can be a QB... I think the Jags might be in the running to be the next Carolina Panthers (past), or KC Chiefs (present), in the regression category...
Yeah... I'll take the points (Falcons), for (1 unit)...
---BONUS---
Referring to a prior comment (Browns-Lions)... On 2nd thought... Maybe Colt McCoy should not wear the 'COLT MCCOY' jersey either...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeaT3vw4bak&feature=related
@ben
Jason Campbell (I promise you), is not going to lead them to the promised land...
Best thing they had going was Nnamdi Asamogha...
Hopefully they'll be able to keep darren mcfadden healthy enough to get into 70 yard fg range for Sebastian Janikowski...
With kickoffs now back at the 35 yard line... 80% of the kickoffs in the NFL are going to be touchbacks... (Which means teams are going to be starting drives at the 20 yard line (instead of about the 33)...
Only 16% of NFL drives that start at the 20 yard
line result in Td's...
Unwittingly - the NFL has turned this into a PASSING league...
The rich are going to get richer (in that dept), the poor will get poorer...
RICHER:
Patriots, Saints, Packers, Chargers, Colts, Texans, Rams, Lions
POORER:
Seahawks, Raiders, Bengals, dolphins, Chiefs, Vikings, Titans, Jags, Panthers, 49ers, Redskins
ABOUT THE SAME (balanced w/serviceable QB & solid
running):
Steelers, Ravens, Falcons, Bears, Bucs, Cowboys, Eagles, Bills, Jets
---
Of note would be teams who have good defensive secondaries combined with a good blitz package on 3rd & long... Those include:
Steelers, Jets, Ravens, Patriots (this year), Saints (this year), eagles (this year)...
Field position bitchez!
@CV
You once mentioned a book on golf/life that had a particular influence on you...and I've misplaced my notes...mind repeating the title/author?
And thanx for the morning links AR...forgot all about the Jones...nice grooves.
@Mel
There are several golf books eminently worth reading...
First & foremost is...
Golf in the Kingdom - Michael Murphy
It's in the tops of all 21st century literature...
- in addition I recommend -
"The Legend of Bagger Vance" (though the movie with Matt damon, basically sucked by comparison to the book)...
&
"Follow the Wind" - (I forget the author) was a nice read...
---
All those books... read them & you will feel happy & inspired afterwards...
@Mel
CV is somewhat of a 'Shivas Irons' character in real life...
Which is prolly why I relate to the book so much...
@Mel
coming soon... (after a long wait)
http://tzvee.blogspot.com/2011/07/times-shivas-irons-golf-in-kingdom.html
@CV
Thanks man...Golf in the Kingdom was what I was after.
I was compiling a late summer/fall reading list...and messing with some conceptual notions vis a vis modernism giving way to post-modernsm...giving way to something resembling (possibly) or hinting at a new age of "authenticity"...which wouldn't be a bad thing. Just gathering possible ammunition.
>> interesting times. completely invested for Great Contraction part II....
Stay skeptical, my friend.
Missed most of the day. Good to know that the bears held strong and rebuffed any rally attempt by the bulls.
if anyone missed it above...
The only action CV is taking tonight is the FALCONS for (1 unit)...
There are write-ups on the other games (which are basically reasons to NOT bet those games) - unless your name is:
- John Paulson
- Ken Fisher
- Barry Ritholtz
- Barton Biggs
- Barry Soetoro
- an avatar, named after a poodle, named after a mythical Nordic God (who probably never existed in the first place)
- a canned meat sauce that rhymes with 'sandwich'
In which case... Go ahead... TELL US ALL what you think... ENLIGHTEN US...
Go ALL IN...
(after all - the world needs mirth & entertainment to help us thru the 'SUMMER OR RECOVERY 2.0'...
CV,
11:00
nice analysis there, you should try out for ESPN man.
Corner is up.
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