TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 1.18.11

Morning Corner 1.18.11

10YR NOTE
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 119.594
rev= 123.578; mid= 121.586

The 10yr note has held its 50% retrace for the past month. Has it bottomed? The lows have held the SMA(55). Is that the level if broken that will initiate QE3?

MUB
new low 96.26
trend=down
low= 96.26
rev= 101.61; mid= 98.94

And I thought IQI was having a bad day.

IYR
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
rev= 57.62; mid= 55.68

Running out of steam as it continues to get rejected at its 50% retrace. Considering that home prices are still on the decline what is holding it up? 10yr and 30yr yields are still moving higher and foreclosures are being held up (for good reason). Por favor explique.

279 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 279 of 279 Newer› Newest»

Anonymous said...: get a good mental picture going for yourself

MENSA meeting?

No wonder you switched to frou frous; January 18, 2011 at 3:39 PM
Cold Steel said...: Ramp, anyone?; January 18, 2011 at 3:43 PM
AmenRa said...: ben22

Anything like knocking back 7 shots on Seagrams 7 on a challenge and then 9 more after that?; January 18, 2011 at 3:43 PM
ben22 said...: come on 1,300, you know you want to; January 18, 2011 at 3:44 PM
Lord Blankfiend said...: Giles, prepare the device....

We are going to report tomorrow that we are in fact a hollowed out shell corporation and all of our assets have been transferred to the Clayman Islands.; January 18, 2011 at 3:44 PM
Giles Straightarrow said...: Don't you mean Cayman Islands, Lloyd..?; January 18, 2011 at 3:45 PM
Lord Blankfiend said...: Sorry. If you watch FOX biz channel you can't get your mind off them. The Islands, I mean.; January 18, 2011 at 3:46 PM
ben22 said...: Ra,

I didn't even come close to finishing it, I'll leave it at that.

shots + me = projectile vomiting

no way could I ever put down that much seagrams, no way.; January 18, 2011 at 3:46 PM
Cold Steel said...: Ramp it, BITCHEZ...; January 18, 2011 at 3:46 PM
karen said...: cnbcfastmoney
617K calls versus 387K puts in $AAPL into the final 15 minutes - Jon; January 18, 2011 at 3:47 PM
Jennifer said...: Ben (or other Neely followers) -- what is Neely River? He refers to it all the time but I haven't been able to find a description/explanation yet.; January 18, 2011 at 3:47 PM
ben22 said...: tons of open interest on SPY around that $125 level today

lots of eyes on that target it would seem

I lean with Andy, not that'd I put money on gut feelings, but it does feel like there are lots of people that want to short this pig.; January 18, 2011 at 3:48 PM
Jennifer said...: My brother-in-law got married this past summer. His batchelor party was on the hottest day of the year. My husband learned the hard way that margaritas by the pitcher actually do have tequila in them and should not be consumed like lemonade.; January 18, 2011 at 3:49 PM
ben22 said...: Jennifer,

he hasn't revealed what NeelyRiver is, but combing through the questions of the week he mentioned at one point last year that soon he will reveal in detail how he developed it and what it is.; January 18, 2011 at 3:49 PM
Jennifer said...: Thanks! Guess I'll have to keep subscribing if I want to know the answer...very clever.; January 18, 2011 at 3:52 PM
karen said...: $rut did not make a new high as $wlsh and $tran did.. whatever.; January 18, 2011 at 3:52 PM
AmenRa said...: AAPL est $5.37, whisper $5.90
http://earningswhispers.com/stocks.asp?symbol=AAPL

We shall see...; January 18, 2011 at 3:52 PM
karen said...: AR, i thot aapl would better $6..; January 18, 2011 at 3:55 PM
Jennifer said...: TAE was good today too...

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/; January 18, 2011 at 3:55 PM
Anonymous said...: Don't short AAPL.
Short the disgusting necrotic banks if you want to short.; January 18, 2011 at 3:56 PM
karen said...: $bkx/xlf didn't make a new high either..; January 18, 2011 at 3:57 PM
AmenRa said...: karen

Wouldn't BKX/KRX work better? TBTF vs Regionals; January 18, 2011 at 3:59 PM
karen said...: what i want to know is.. why the pre announce on jobs.. why not do it all at the earnings report.. and if their hand was forced on jobs because of leaks.. surely earnings are no secret.. so maybe the whole thing was gamed to produce the sell-off pre stellar earnings?? whatever; January 18, 2011 at 3:59 PM
ben22 said...: lol, yeah, he's not a dumb guy, it's like the commercial just before the best parts on the Bachelor

not that I watch that trash, or even glance when my wife has it on

I don't, I swear

I'm a glenn Neely fanboy for sure at this point, there is no emotion in his analysis at all, it's one trade at a time and move on to the next one, you win some, you manage your losses when they come and go back to the drawing board. I do think he's added some valuable insights to waves as well, I don't know how people won't acknowledge for example that one wave in an impulse needs to be an extended wave, or simple things like lesser degree wave 2's shouldn't retrace more than your larger degree 2's. These are very valuable insights in today's market, imo.

Reading EWI has now become more of an intellectual exercise for me rather than really being into their analysis, they are too biased to be sure, as I've been bitching about since last summer, and as I will continue to do until they respond to one of my e-mails, lol.; January 18, 2011 at 3:59 PM
karen said...: AR, i wasn't posting a ratio.. $hui:$gold, for example, i was meaning and/or !!!; January 18, 2011 at 4:01 PM
ben22 said...: Karen,

remember last time he left how angry people were that Apple didn't disclose what was happening properly to shareholders. There was a lot of confusion and misinformation surrounding all of that. Though the end result was that the stock went up something like 70% while he was out.

maybe it had something to do with that, who knows.; January 18, 2011 at 4:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Another day, another dollar....; January 18, 2011 at 4:02 PM
karen said...: oops on CREE.; January 18, 2011 at 4:02 PM
karen said...: where is CV? this is for him:

U.S. stocks finish higher; Dow rises 51 points, boosted by Boeing
01/18/2011 04:02:34 PM

why not just say, US stocks finish higher as always? LOL; January 18, 2011 at 4:05 PM
Jennifer said...: Had a nice chunk of MOS...took my profits on Friday. Crap.; January 18, 2011 at 4:06 PM
AmenRa said...: karen

Gotcha!; January 18, 2011 at 4:06 PM
karen said...: Jenn, you mean you weren't in the know?!

Jon Najarian
$MOS news breaking via WSJ, Cargill could relinquish stake, shares moving up BIG in post: http://yfrog.com/hsdzng; January 18, 2011 at 4:08 PM
AmenRa said...: And to think POMO was for TIPs today. Wait until tomorrow when they return to USTs.

AAPL like to wait until 4:16 to release earnings. That way there are no trades until AH opens. Or is is 3:16 CT? ;-); January 18, 2011 at 4:09 PM
Jennifer said...: Nope...not buds w/the Najarians!; January 18, 2011 at 4:10 PM
Anonymous said...: ROR

What do you call a cricket field full of Australians ?
A vacant lot.

Why do Australians call their favourite drink Castlemaine XXXX?
Because they can't spell piss.

Why can't Australian blokes take their girlfriends to the cricket?
They eat all the grass.; January 18, 2011 at 4:11 PM
ben22 said...: but do you have a ponytail like them?

when my hair falls out, I will not be going with that style.; January 18, 2011 at 4:11 PM
karen said...: $IBM reports Q4 earnings of $4.18 versus estimates of $4.08. $IBM reports Q4 revenues of $29 billion versus estimates of $28.26 billion.; January 18, 2011 at 4:13 PM
Anonymous said...: BTE BTE BTE....!!!

Now it is all about the banks. Remember they are not all GS and two of them at least are a real pile of manure.; January 18, 2011 at 4:14 PM
AmenRa said...: BAC release 1/21/11 before open. Wild guess...wikileaks releases file on BAC Thursday night.; January 18, 2011 at 4:16 PM
karen said...: would someone show this to cramer?

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/111848/the-eight-states-running-out-of-homebuyers?mod=realestate-buy; January 18, 2011 at 4:18 PM
karen said...: i think this is fantastic.

http://www.nypost.com/p/entertainment/why_love_my_strict_chinese_mom_uUvfmLcA5eteY0u2KXt7hM; January 18, 2011 at 4:27 PM
karen said...: Keith McCullough
$CREE down -14% and $COOL down 9% on earnings; buy-de-dip; January 18, 2011 at 4:28 PM
AmenRa said...: AAPL 1Q EPS $6.43. Geezus.; January 18, 2011 at 4:31 PM
AmenRa said...: Beat estimates by 19.74% and whisper by 8.98%.; January 18, 2011 at 4:32 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: The Bond Report 1.18.11

What began as a rout in the long end moderated by the close. The long bond was off by 2-3 bps in the end. The big news was a rally, perhaps aided by a squeeze in munis. Nice, nice trading, Colin.

Corpies: LQD -0.06%; AGG -0.07%; JNK 0.05%; HYG -0.01%
Govies: TLT -0.46%; IEI -0.16%; TIP 0.02%
Munis: IQI 2.07%; MUB 1.15%
Mortgages: MBB 0.08%
Hedgies: TBT 0.93%

We did nothing in the end. We are now looking ahead tactically to Thursday's claims number. We would fade any strong selling in Ts after that number. It will be interesting to see the next move in munis from here.; January 18, 2011 at 4:34 PM
Anonymous said...: thought this was worthwhile:

"The Fraud at the Heart of Social Security (January 17, 2011)

To understand the fraud at the heart of the Social Security Trust Fund, we start with a very simple fact: cash can only be spent once.
There are two frauds at the very heart of the Social Security system, and I am going to describe and source them in detail. After spending a number of hours poring over public data from the Social Security Administration (SSA), The U.S. Treasury and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and additional hours searching the Web for other published analyses, I can state with some authority that there are no published analyses or accounts of Social Security which incorporate the actual outlays and receipts from fiscal year 2010 in a context which includes the Social Security Trust Fund.

In other words, all published analyses are based either on SSA or CBO estimates, not the actual numbers from the Treasury, and all media reports I could find are simply cut-and-paste repetitions of these estimates.

I cannot find a single source which provided any evidence of digging through the data and assembling a coherent picture of the Social Security system.

The media simply repeats "conclusions" published by "official sources" based on estimates, not facts. The laziness this implies is staggering. Meanwhile, pundits such as Paul Krugman and Robert Reich, however knowledgeable and talented they may be, have obviously never performed a single minute of original data collection and analysis of the voluminous public accounts available to anyone with a computer and web browser.

If this is the best our most prestigious pundits and media resources can manage, then we truly are in dire straits..."
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan11/Social-Security-fraud01-11.html

ibid.; January 18, 2011 at 4:34 PM
Anonymous said...: See. No point in shorting good companies. Just silly.

Scumbanks, on the other hand, are a different matter. Let's see what kinds of numbers the weasels can concoct..... and then there are any number of miserable little "growth stocks" that are going to report no earnings whatever, but that will all come later.; January 18, 2011 at 4:36 PM
karen said...: this is something: Apple Says International Sales Were 62% Of 1Q Revenue >AAPL
Dow Jones; January 18, 2011 at 4:38 PM
Tiny Tim said...: Shhh... we don't have any money for SS.

The gold is gone too....
What's that? Oh, the usual. Hookers and coke.; January 18, 2011 at 4:38 PM
ben22 said...: those apple earnings were big, who cares how they got them, earnings don't drive stocks and all anyone will look at is the bottom number.

still not sure if we can get to 1350 but clearly 1,300 is a layup now

bulls have to be feeling invisible now if they weren't already.; January 18, 2011 at 4:40 PM
Anonymous said...: What people have missed about AAPL is the inexorable march of the Mac into the mainstream of desktop computer buyers. The 10% ceiling that analysts used to put on it (geeks and graphix segment) is ancient history. This is a good thing that should be celebrated. The MS-DOS/Windows-based lineage PCs are the horse and buggy of computing.

Bye bye, Dell. One day it will be bye bye MSFT as well.; January 18, 2011 at 4:43 PM
Anonymous said...: After Hours: 341.26 0.61 (0.18%) 4:25PM EST

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL&ql=1

4:00PM EST: 340.65 -7.83 (2.25%)

I'm sure that whole 'Jobs'/'Earnings', and, subsequent, reaction to..has a lot of peep 'crossed-up'..

ibid.; January 18, 2011 at 4:43 PM
Anonymous said...: bulls have to be feeling invisible now

I don't see your point...; January 18, 2011 at 4:43 PM
AmenRa said...: ben22

Invisible or INVINCIBLE :-); January 18, 2011 at 4:44 PM
karen said...: LOL! he meant invincible!! don't be mean : ); January 18, 2011 at 4:45 PM
Anonymous said...: Remember 2008? The Qs were the last thing to go.

Small caps, banks and commodity stocks are the weak spot in this market from here.; January 18, 2011 at 4:45 PM
Anonymous said...: We know... we didn't mean it.; January 18, 2011 at 4:45 PM
AmenRa said...: This is going to hurt tomorrow. Hopefully housing starts misses big.; January 18, 2011 at 4:45 PM
ben22 said...: lol, this is why you don't read someone's post to literally when they can't spell (me)

I didn't go to an Ivy League school, don't think too hard about what I say; January 18, 2011 at 4:46 PM
ben22 said...: Karen,

I thought it was funny, I earned that one

but thanks for having my back.; January 18, 2011 at 4:47 PM
Anonymous said...: Who dat?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12212843; January 18, 2011 at 4:47 PM
Anonymous said...: 1300 or bust.; January 18, 2011 at 4:48 PM
karen said...: up 15, now up 12.. yeah, i'd sell, lol..; January 18, 2011 at 4:52 PM
Jennifer said...: Ha! My ponytail is much nicer. It wishes we were still in mosaic.; January 18, 2011 at 4:52 PM
karen said...: good buzz: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/01/18/buzz-tracker-11/?src=twt&twt=nytimesdealbook; January 18, 2011 at 4:55 PM
karen said...: aap only up 7 now..; January 18, 2011 at 4:58 PM
I-Man said...: Might have a scare on the 21st, but you know the drill, and if you dont, then you wont.

The window has closed, and if you are dead set on shorting US equities, then you better learn to chill until early March.

Somedays, your strength is to sit still. Victory.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6wU78y6zuY

Last post for awhile, be good, and good luck.; January 18, 2011 at 4:58 PM
Anonymous said...: Demand Destruction rearing its Head..

Summary Box: Delta Air Lines fuel
6 minutes ago

By The Associated Press

PAY AT THE PUMP: Delta Air Lines Inc.'s fuel costs jumped during the fourth quarter. Delta and other airlines have been raising fares to make up for it, and Delta said it could park planes if fuel prices keep climbing.

HOW DOES THAT HELP? Some routes on some planes are profitable at lower fuel prices, but become money-losers if prices climb too high. Less flying is one way for an airline to offset higher fuel prices.

WHAT'S NEXT: Delta currently plans to increase 2011 flying 1 percent to 3 percent. It says those plans could change if fuel prices keep rising.

http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=689758207667790; January 18, 2011 at 4:59 PM
Jennifer said...: So, from premarket to AH, aapl had a greater than 8% move today....that was a dip I should have bought.; January 18, 2011 at 4:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Sell the news, K?

We hate this news. How can they tow our favorite restaurant? No doubt the local bricks and mortar places paid to get this guy taken out...

http://www.dnainfo.com/20110118/upper-east-side/police-tow-taco-truck-upon-upper-east-side-homecoming

Now where can we dine at 2am after futbol?; January 18, 2011 at 5:00 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: The I-

Chillin'...

Jah Bond Mon; January 18, 2011 at 5:02 PM
karen said...: aapl below 52 week high in AH now..

the whole thing wreaks if you ask me.. the timing of the jobs announcement to the earnings report.. an engineered dip?

anyway, let's see what buyers do in the free market tomorrow, lol..; January 18, 2011 at 5:03 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: One day closer...

I-Man..gonna hike the Smokies this weekend, assumes no torrential downpours or multiple feet of snow.; January 18, 2011 at 5:04 PM
karen said...: LB.. what a story! tacos are probably something you don't need at 2AM, especially after a few rounds of boddingtons.. bet you are bursting your buttons these days : ); January 18, 2011 at 5:09 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Don't listen to me, listen to Mish:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/01/treasury-spreads-yield-curve-steepest.html

That 2s30s is really the most amazing spread - in fact it is quite the most attractive spread that this bond analyst has seen in a long time....; January 18, 2011 at 5:09 PM
karen said...: one more aapl post: BergenCapital Mike Bergen
$AAPL EPS of $6.43 beat its own guidance by 34% - this was the smallest beat vs. its guidance in 9 qtrs (since Q4 2008); January 18, 2011 at 5:10 PM
karen said...: okay.. finally running off. later all.; January 18, 2011 at 5:15 PM
Anonymous said...: bet you are bursting your buttons these days : )

Only when you are at your most provocative.....; January 18, 2011 at 5:18 PM
Anonymous said...: will have to say that it is nice having "Light",
after 5 p.m., these Days..

definitely, "Bullish" Daylight~

AAIP; January 18, 2011 at 5:31 PM

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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Morning Corner 1.18.11

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