A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight!
Creditcane™: Funny what a few double expressos can do for a Creditcane sighting.
SPXBearish long day (completed evening star). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1276.56). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the 23.6% retrace (78.72). Still below SMA(144), SMA(21), SMA(55) and now SMA(89). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 81.01).
VIXBullish long day (confirmed homing pigeon). Midpoint at EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.75). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Still has a monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDSpinning top day. Still below SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Back above the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1387.00). Must have the precious.
EURUSDBullish short day (resolved doji higher). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed test of its 50.0% retrace at 1.3506. Back above SMA(55). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1.2929). Above the weekly 3LB reversal price (1.3364).
JNKBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed to hold SMA(55). Still can't close gap post dividends. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).
10YR YIELDSpinning top day. The 14.6% retrace at 33.86 was tested and failed. Back below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Held above upper trend line.
CRBBearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 323.94).
XLFBearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failed the 14.6% retrace (16.41). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 16.72).
IQIBearish short day (failed bullish piercing confirmation). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Held new 0.0% retrace (11.15). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30).
MUBSpinning top day (confirmed bullish engulfing). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Held the 14.6% retrace (97.24). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 99.96).
TLTBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Held lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 90.94).
LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT
The Bond Report 1.19.11
The big market yawned today for the most part while the yappy little market was taking a downward excursion for the first time since the Dickensian era. (We know the ladies like Dickens).
Moves of note today were a modest flattener from yesterday's record 401 bps 2s30s spread in the YC and a move into safety in the muni market with MUB up and IQI down. Think of the muni spread widening and I think you can identify a trend. The MUB/IQI ratio is like the LQD/HYG ratio.
Corpies: LQD -0.07%; AGG 0.02%; JNK -0.15%; HYG -0.31%
Govies: TLT 0.72%; IEI 0.12%; TIP 0.04%
Munis: IQI -1.24%; MUB 0.16%
Mortgages: MBB 0.22%
Hedgies: TBT -1.38%
We did nothing in fixed income but were jolly amused by our equity hedging performance, and added a small widowmaker for fun.
Carry on, chaps.
29 comments:
look at the 'whisker' on this one..
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=MNKD&b=2
(AP:VALENCIA, Calif.) Diabetes drug developer MannKind Corp. said Wednesday the Food and Drug Administration has asked for two additional clinical trials of its inhaled insulin Afrezza using next-generation inhalers.
Shares of the Valencia, Calif., company were halted in trading after sinking more than 7 percent, or 72 cents, to $9.11.
MannKind said the FDA wants trials of the new inhalers in patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. The agency wants at least one to measure the performance of those inhalers against the MedTone inhaler the company used in late-stage clinical testing. Regulators also are looking for more information on performance characteristics, usage, handling and storage of the next-generation device.
MannKind, which has no drugs on the market..."
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68975827684080
http://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?oc=1008051&tc=7
ibid.
'Retail' RE being converted..
(AP:FORT SMITH, Ark.) The owner of a former shopping mall says a Florida company that provides customer-support services will open a call center in a renovated section of the mall, adding 600 new jobs.
FSM Redevelopment Partners LLC said in a news release Wednesday that Sykes Enterprises Inc. of Tampa, Fla., plans to put its call-center operation in a section of the former Phoenix Village mall. FSM Redevelopment said the call center would occupy more than 40,000 square feet of space.
Sykes Enterprises' web site says the company provides customer-support services to other companies, with an emphasis on technical support for customers calling in for help.
The release did not say when Sykes would begin operations at Fort Smith.
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897582766978790
ibid.
My mind may say Steelers win, but I will have to cheer for the Jets. And I think I'd like to see Chicago win, but Aaron Rogers showed this year he loves to play in the big games.
....Kinda like BinT...
I'm rooting for Chicago (and nothing like a cup of Old Style and a shot of Schnapps while freezing your ass off at Soldier's Field)
Although- anyone who watches football has to love a player like Clay Matthews- BEASTLY!
and let me segue into a CV love fest- dude had a lot of cool style points- the ALL CAPS, the elipses . . ., the parenthesis (inside the body of paragraph)- I find myself using them all the time-
dude had some style . . .(see I did it again!)
I like Dickens! Its nice that none of you have pointed out that sometimes I write as if I, too, were being paid by the word :-)
Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks are within a week of “a significant market top” that is likely to precede a drop of at least 11 percent in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, said Tom DeMark, creator of a set of market-timing indicators.
DeMark’s Sequential and Combo indicators, designed to identify market tops and bottoms, are giving a sell signal on the main U.S. stock benchmark for the first time since mid-2007, he said in a telephone interview. The S&P 500 began its 57 percent plunge from a record in October 2007.
“I’m pretty confident that in one to two weeks, the market will be in a descent,” said DeMark, founder and chief executive officer of Market Studies LLC. “It could be pretty sharp.”
DeMark’s forecast follows projections from Wall Street strategists that the S&P 500 will climb to 1,384, an annual gain of 10 percent, through the end of the year, according to the average of 12 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Short selling of companies in the index has fallen to the lowest level in a year, according to Data Explorers, a New York-based research firm.
On a weekly basis, the two indicators signaled on Jan. 14 that a reversal is imminent as the S&P 500 closed at its highest level since August 2008. DeMark expects a decline of at least 11 percent because his work shows that markets move in increments of 5.56 percent, he said. Assuming a drop twice that size is “a conservative estimate,” he said.
The indicators are based on comparisons of the current closing level of the index with closing and intraday levels over previous periods. The reading Jan. 14 was the first signal of a reversal in the S&P 500 since March 2009, when the indicators showed a rebound was imminent, he said. That month the S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low from which it has rebounded more than 90 percent.
The index has risen for seven straight weeks, the longest stretch since May 2007. The S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent to 1,295.02 at 4 p.m. in New York.
from other thread -
"I only buy hershey bars with american eagles and maple leafs....better?"
Response: Yes - "better". I can handle that.
---
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbA84QCZEns
---
Come on y'all let's take a ride
Don't you say shit just get inside
It's time to take your ass on another kind of trip
cuz you can't have the hop if you don't have the hip
Grab your gat with the extra clip and,
close your eyes and hit the switch
We're going to a place where everybody kick it
kick it, kick it, yeah... that's the ticket
ain't no bloodin', ain't no cripin'
ain't no punk-ass nigga's set trippin'
everybody's got a stack and it ain't no crack
and it really don't matter if you're white or black
I wanna take you there like the Staple Singers
put something in the tank and I know that I can bring ya
If you can't take the heat get yo' ass out the kitchen
we on a mission
Come along and ride on a Fantasic Voyage
slide slide slippity-slide
(with switches on the block in a '65)
Come along and ride on a Fantasic Voyage
slide slide who-ride
ain't no valley low enough for mountain high
I'm tryin' to find a place where I can live my life and
maybe eat some steak with my beans and rice, a
place where my kids can play outside
without livin' in fear of a drive-by
and even if I get away from them drive-by killers
I still got to worry about those snitch-ass niggas
I keep on searchin' and I keep on looking
but niggas are the same from Watts to Brooklyn
I try to keep my faith in my people
but sometimes my people be acting like they evil
you don't understand about runnin' with a gang
coz you don't gang bang, and
you don't have to stand on the corner and slang
coz you got your own thang
you can't help me if you can't help yourself
you better make a left
Come along and ride on a Fantasic Voyage
slide slide slippity-slide
I do what I do just to survive
Come along and ride on a fantasic voyage
slide slide who-ride
that's why I pack my .45
Life is a bitch and then you die
still tryin' to get a peace of the apple pie
every game ain't the same, coz the game still remains
don't it seem kinda strange, ain't a damn thing change
if you don't work then you don't eat
and only down-ass niggas can ride with me
hop-hop-hop your five quickly down the block
stay sucka-free and keep the busters off your jock
you gotta have heart son, if you wanna go,
watch this sweet chariot swing low
ain´t nobody cryin` ain´t nobody dyin
ain´t nobody worried, everybody ´s tryin
nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin'
if you wanna have something, you better start frontin'
what ya gonna do when the 5 roll by
you better be ready, so you can ride
Come along and ride on a Fantasic Voyage
slide slide slippity-slide
when you're living in a city it's do or die
Come along and ride on a fantasic voyage
slide slide who-ride
you better be ready when the 5 roll by
just roll along- that's what you do
just roll along- that's right
just roll along- that's what you do
Jennifer
Currently most fundamental and technical analysis are rendered moot thanks to ZIRP. It's just a crap shoot.
"most fundamental and technical analysis are rendered moot thanks to ZIRP. It's just a crap shoot"...
---
That couldn't have anything to do with central bankers though, could it?
I mean... The "market" is just a bunch of average joe "BUYERS & SELLERS" on each side of the trade...
Isn't that correct?
"That couldn't have anything to do with central bankers though, could it?"
or as Faber said:
“Don’t underestimate the power of printing money”
CV
Yes there are buyers and sellers. But many of them are not looking behind the curtain.
AR,
that's a good part of what I was getting at, earlier, when I was 'correcting' McB on his use of 'Money'..
or as Faber said:
“Don’t underestimate the power of printing money”
~~
Why peep put up with the FedRes' Counterfeiting is, still, a puzzle to me..
At the least of it, 'Legal Tender' "Laws" need to die..
AAIP
@ahab
“Don’t underestimate the power of printing money”
---
This past weekend, (9:50) on link... I attempted to express that concept...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGDtDAMvIn4&feature=player_embedded#!
But I doubt many bothered to watch my CRACKPOT video links...
"Empirically" - CV believes that we're in the POST "TRAJAN" - PRE "HADRIAN" (117-138 AD) period of "AMERICAN RULE"...
The CONQUEST phase is over...
One could dispute how long the Roman Empire withstood thereafter... "Emperor" (including "Constantine" (the first HOLY ROMAN emperor - who arrived in 306 AD [168 years after HADRIAN] was a VISSILE designation...
One could also argue that "Commodus" (who assumed the status of "Emperor" - 42 years after HADRIAN, was a SYMBOL for the downturn of the Roman Empire...
Notwithstanding... We've MADE THE TURN as an EMPIRE...
Bush was TRAJAN... Obama is HADRIAN...
This could go on for quite awhile (assuming the world itself isn't innundated by some natural disaster, meteor strike, or some OTHER such phenomenon)...
The Roman Empire went on for CENTURIES (despite the degradation after the TRAJAN-HADRIAN transition)...
None of that really matters - because the long term HISTORICAL EFFECTS won't be written on how YOU OR I live today, but instead how the WEALTHY prospered, and how the SLAVES provided that prosperity...
---
Going back to the subject of CENTRAL BANKS... It is EXACTLY on how the ENTIRE process of the video progresses... as to HOW a seemingly prosperous POPULACE become DEBT SLAVES... & where our modern day civilization might find ourselves at any given moment based on our CLASS, KNOWLEDGE, & SOCIAL STATUS...
@Amen
"many of them are not looking behind the curtain"
I would agree with that 100%
Yes, there were buyers at 1278 but today there were sellers at 1296
1314...maybe, just maybe this or next month
1296...high this year
1278...was resistance, now support?
1260... good support
1242... eh
CV should spend some of his free time on the "18" numbers, it might work on gold also, triple top @ 1422. 1386 was support but now may turn out to be resistance. trading within inches of 1368 nowadays.
1386 / 18 = 77
1386 * 18 = 24,948
That's how I see it...
It makes no difference except for what someone wants to sell me an "egg" for (that is - assuming I don't have my own hen house & therefore don't have to GO TO MARKET to buy eggs)... and/or their NEED for WHISKEY (cans or not) or VODKA, or tool implements...
I'll trade ya an egg for a can of whiskey... anytime :)
Mark,
while I appreciate the money comments because they are true, I've been typing the same things on these pages for 3 years now, pretty sure you and I had our first discussion on what is a dollar two years ago right?, didn't realize we were into this thing now where when we use the term money on the blog we have to clarify we are talking about fedres notes, you all shopping with gold bars now too? We can't even have a serious discussion on this. It all started with some ten year comparison of buying actual commodities or buying stocks and holding them, cause thats what you do with stocks apparently, but last I checked, you can't purchase stocks with "real money" anyway, I've never sent off any gold bars for deposit into a clients brokerage account to buy some BAC calls. That we're again stuck on a conversation from a week ago is also odd, but so it goes.
as for this:
"Why peep put up with the FedRes' Counterfeiting is, still, a puzzle to me.."
what's so puzzling about it? I've not met one person in the day to day that could explain to me correctly where money comes from, it's not that people are putting up with it, very few people have any clue at all what is going on and it's a 70+ year old story now, anything hard to think about, I'd guess that's the end of story for 85% of people, you know there's tv to watch. Have you not come across countless people that have said to you something along the lines of "they had to do something" knowing damn well they have no idea what that something is, they just know they are doing it.
Bottom line, I trust Amex more than the Federal Reserve... if Amex wants to extend me credit and let me pay it back in fiat, fine.. the Fed has extended "credit" to insolvent banks that can never repay. Their credibility is already in shambles from (1) ignoring the irrational exuberance of the dot.com bubble by not raising margin requirements to (2) turning another blind eye on the housing bubble and fraudulent lending practices (SIVs!!), then (3) announcing "subprime is contained" to (4) bailing out their banking cartel cronies; and (5) punishing the prudent with ZIRP.. and this is just in my little lifetime.. they have been wreaking havoc for far longer.
MackieFear,
really, didn't mean that much by it..
1/2 the reason I chose your Post, to point it out, was that I know that you, already, get it..
the other 1/2, with the 'Arizona-Words have 'meaning'/'effect(s)'' "outpouring", of recent vintage, is that We are "always" calling the FedRes scrip "Money"--it perpetuates the delusion..
as an aside, it's little wonder that the MSM is, totally, Silent on that score..
and, w/that, this: "...few people have any clue at all what is going on and it's a 70+ year old story now, anything hard to think about, I'd guess that's the end of story for 85% of people, you know there's tv to watch..." should be, even, more obvious..
I appreciate it, I mean 'intellectually', I get it--peep aren't exposed to the factual basis, trained to 'leave it to the 'experts'', haven't developed critical thought processes, it makes their heads hurt thinking about it, easier to m-wave another bag of Popcorn than to ponder K-Waves/Neely NeoWave, et al..
past all that, it's, still, a puzzle--peep are, literally, trading their Lives for 'less than', if not nothing..
and, in the mix, for their troubles, get showered w/ s*** like
http://hplusmagazine.com/editors-blog/science-proves-youre-stupid
(as, but, one ex.)
some of this is Age Old, but, really, Zounds~!, you'd think peep would recognize that they've "seen this Play b4"..
AAIP
karen,
this: "...I trust Amex more than the Federal Reserve..."
is, exactly, why "At the least of it, 'Legal Tender' "Laws" need to die.."
ibid.
Mark,
I hear ya man, it's sad, and it is the whole design of the Fed. I'd guess it took me a good 5-6 years to finally understand how things went together, just don't see most people putting anywhere near that kind of time into it, especially what with the stock market rally to get involved with, and there are so many fun things to be interested in.
One thing I think people should be careful about is all the one sided talk regarding fed actions, in other words, everyone loves to talk about the Fed printing money. I've read Faber via subscription for years, he's blown many a call doing this especially in fixed income. I'm a big Faber fan as well, but reading for years you notice this blindspot eventually.
From all the data that I can review the Fed's actions in 2007, 2008, and 2009 were nothing more than swapping new money into the hands of people that formerly held IOU's for dollars. This results in a net change in the money supply + credit of, well, zero. The most recent data on this front was reviewed in detail by Rosenberg maybe 3-4 days ago when Dimon made the comment that credit is flowing again, but according to the data DR showed, it certainly is not, despite the Fed's best efforts, this is not because credit isn't cheap or available, it is, but banks don't want to give and consumers don't want to take it, the "mood" has changed. Faber is correct and I agree, printing money CAN be a powerful thing, but one still has to consider the activity on the credit side of the ledger because the printing is powerful but only to the extent it relates to the credit side, in none of the comments above did I see any mention of that side of the ledger, I rarely see anyone mention it when this discussion comes up, in fact yesterday I think "anon" tried to explain to me there was no deflation and then went on to type a novel about prices....... Reality is that the credit side is orders of magnitude larger than the money supply, everyone is just repeating, they are printing money, they are printing money, but when the Fed simply swaps money for previously existing debt, there is no net change in the amount of dollar-based purchasing power.
Fast forward to the second batch of QE as it is "different this time" by design and I'd challenge any of you to show me how all this new money in the banks hands is going to ending up multiplying through the system in the form of loans, it's the whole reason they are doing it, it's in Bernanke's statements and as I've maintained it isn't going to work, after all, the Fed wants them to lend it for more mortgages. The way I see it, even at this site there are always two conversations going on when this all comes up in public debate, some of us focus on the ledger and the long term impacts, others are like a magnet to prices of things, time will tell who is focused on the right thing.
My own little personal dream is the Fed destroys itself in all of this. That said, I think a compelling argument can be made that the Fed is simply there to accommodate what everyone is asking for, as they always have, it's the very reason why we elevate the very people that were blindsided by the crisis to the podium of TIME Person of the Year shortly afterward. Whether or not people realize what they are asking for is another debate.
Ben,
I hear yas..thanks fot the response.
LSS: from the way I see it, is, as you say ~"The FedRes is swapping Cold Cash for Dead Paper", that, in itself is "Inflationary"..
Peep, many of them, are 'trying to de-levereage'/'get their "Financial Houses" in order, and, b/c of the "Gov't assisted Life Support"(and its attendant Costs) are facing Higher, than otherwise, Prices..
if the FedRes/USTreas wasn't 'bailing out' their friendz, I think we'd see Prices lower, across the board--some say this would make the problem(Bal.Sheets) worse, but from the lower levels it, just, might be easier to re-build..
AAIP
Mark,
this is the detail I think a lot of people are missing, here:
"from the way I see it, is, as you say ~"The FedRes is swapping Cold Cash for Dead Paper", that, in itself is "Inflationary""
isn't exactly true or it's not what I'm saying anyway, let me see if I can explain and you can pick it apart:
From what can be seen only $55 billion of fiat money underlay the entire edifice of bank credit earlier this decade, which at the time amounted to $5.5 trillion. The stock of currency plus Fed reserves, was in total about $600 billion earlier in the decade and that underlay the entire stock of dollar-denominated debt outstanding, which was $30 trillion. Through 2007, dollar-denominated debt soared to $50 trillion, while the total of currency plus Fed reserves was still below $1 trillion, hence my comments that all the focus is on the tiny side of the ledger, the really, really tiny side….this is why I say there is focus here on only one side of the ledger/fed actions, the focus is all about "money printing".
None of these debt figures include derivatives and governments’ unfunded liabilities, which are in the range of another $200 trillion. To be sure unfunded liabilities are a touchy concept so I never bring them up but I consider them often.
Over the past year, the Fed has doubled the stock of base fiat money what we call monetary base in the form of reserves by creating new dollars and exchanging them for outstanding IOUs as discussed above. The total of base fiat money backing bank deposits has soared many multiples to $1 trillion, so I agree, lots of new “money” has been created. But total bank debt, including off-balance-sheet debt, is $18 trillion. So, the stock of bank credit, not to mention all credit, is still huge compared to the stock of base fiat money even after all this printing, when this is considered in full, QE2 is small, very small, and others can see this and that's why there was already discussion of QE3 before QE2 even began. As long as this is true, deflation can and likely will continue, despite the Fed’s best efforts. The increase in the monetary base has caused commentators to state, loudly I might add, that the Fed has created inflation and sadly but surely people are confirming this by looking at PRICES on things like Orange Juice. But inflation is not measured by base money but by base money plus total credit. The fact is, credit still outweighs money by a huge margin. Most economists including my econ prof's at PSU narrowest definition of the money supply (M1) includes $7 trillion worth of checking account deposits. The problem with this formulation is that almost none of these deposits are in fact money, nor are most deposits backed by money. As we have been discussing for a few years now, demand deposits at banks are IOUs of the bank to the depositor. Put anther way, they aren't dollars but IOUs for dollars. M2 includes savings deposits and retail money market funds, and people should certainly know by now, if they haven't been asleep for the last few years, that money market funds are not dollars, these are all debt too (see, the Primary Reserve MM Fund). The broader the measure used you just see the same trend, they simply include even more debt. None of it is money.
WTF, for some reason blogger continues to cut off the last half of my message, annoying as hell:
So yes, we agree about all these things but that background is important in explaining where I differ:
Inflationists currently argue that the Fed can simply replace as many mortgages, corporate bonds and state and municipal IOUs as it likes with new money. Ok, fine, this is Faber’s “beware the power of printing money”. Even if the Fed were to replace all bad debts with base money, and I do mean all of them, I perceive no net inflation thereby created because there would be no change in the total of money plus credit, again, they simply swapped new money with old debts, so now people that held IOU's for dollars just hold dollars, the only way it becomes inflationary in the true sense is if they are lent out and multiplied as a result, it’s not happening, and we are going on 3 years of this now.
and trying again.....
Many commentators talk about inflationary forces running wild, and then go immediately to prices to “prove it”. We all know that the Fed created $1.4 trillion new dollars in 2008. It has told the world that it will inflate to save the monetary system. So that is the news that most people hear and what everyone talks about, which is funny because they are only then focused on the Feds statements, you know, like "subprime is contained" rather than paying attention to how this is all going down. But the Fed’s dramatic money creation in 2008 only seems to force inflation because people focus on only one side of the Fed’s action. Even though the Fed created a lot of new money, it did not affect the total amount of money-plus-credit one bit, because the other side of the action is equally deflationary. The size, scope, and speed of the credit deflation is making the Fed helpless against it.
So I'll submit to inflation in the sense of, when the Fed buys a Treasury bond, net inflation occurs, because it simply monetizes the government’s brand-new IOU so yes, this is true, that’s inflationary. But in 2008, in order for the Fed to add $1.4 trillion new dollars to the monetary system, it removed exactly the same value of IOU-dollars from the market.
Therefore, I think there is much confusion right now between speculation driving prices and actual inflation happening, the real meaning of inflation, and the impact of said inflation showing up in the form of price increases. People are jumping straight to the price increase and screaming that it's inflation but they just aren't following this all the way through from where I sit, and are therefore drawing incorrect conclusions about how this continues to play out moving forward.
In a few yeas we’ll have our answer as to who saw it correctly, it’s going to take that long.
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