But I did, I think, check all of the appropriate "sex", and "ethnicity" boxes (so as to assure myself the most favorable affirmative action status - so I have THAT going for me)... As an example of my work, I submitted an "edit" to a recent page (because I'm a firm believer in a "Truth in Advertising" agenda)... Here's a sample of my offering...
ORIGINAL POST
MY VERSION - (Note: I opted for the "Facebook" approach)
Personal BIO info:
My BFF
My Secret Ambition:
My Welcome Mat (to your ideas & participation):
(Note: CV actually suggested "ditching" this approach and going with the cute little doggy icons)
My Motto:
Oh no wait... That resume was submitted last Friday... We've now learned that the word "AIM" is to be "stricken from the record" from all of Pharoah's monuments, tablets, and scrolls... Shucks! What am I going to do now? I just spent a couple of BILLION of the taxpayers dollars to put this campaign onto the airwaves...
Well... What can I say? That was going to be my best "shot"... "Shoot"... Looks like I'm clearly "outgunned" here... I'd better just "bite the bullet" and let "sleeping dogs lie" (or is it "lying dogs sleep")? Can't remember...
- So that's why Obama admires the fact that Michael Vick kills pitbulls -
If somebody does a "Sirhan Sirhan" On Rudy Guliani in the next election... I wonder if all the blogeteers are going to go after Katie Couric (0:56)...
---INTERVIEW OVER---
I humbly and respectfully now return to my normal everyday routine of "NOT MAKING MONEY" because I'm "TRYING TO BE SMART"...
I'll hereby leave you to your humble pursuits... (Or, you know, the pursuits that a "hobbyist" like yourself enjoys pursuing when you're not busy trying to "top tick" the S&P as the 10y note approaches a 4 handle and the 30y at 5 (because that's what happens in "typical recoveries)...
Confucious say: "He who shoot from hip need to beware of foot..."
While you're doing that... I'll mull it over this weekend to decide whether it's in the cards for me to become more of a Big Picture Guy (to "beef up" my qualifications)...
I realize that's an awful lofty goal... But forgive me if I don't meet the standard... And instead, find myself having to "AIM HIGH" in other ways...
Lastly... For those of you who can't shake a "sick sense of irony" in daily living...
- HERE'S YOUR "BANKER" BONUS -
Glock Pistol Sales Surge in Aftermath of Arizona Shootings
190 comments:
http://www.csgv.org/issues-and-campaigns/guns-democracy-and-freedom/insurrection-timeline
http://twitter.com/evgenymorozov/status
http://www.religiondispatches.org/archive/politics/1801
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/jan/11/arizona-rightwing-extremism-immigrants-judge-roll
German comedian/commentator Volker Pispers discusses the “war on terror”:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4H_E8b-qmo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOZd3iCknZU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRWAyM26YV8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQ9Amuri6G8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2ullkbVCL8
@wunsa
No way I click on that "TWITTER" link...
I'm afraid I'd risk getting tossed in the GULAG...
@CV.
You should ask "The Ritholtz" why Interns don't get paid? Isn't there a minimum wage law in this country?
Sorry, the Twitter link was cut off:
http://twitter.com/evgenymorozov/status/24597002675298305
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110112/ts_nm/us_usa_poll
Obama's job approval rating went up to 50 percent from 45 percent in December, the first time Obama has achieved 50 percent approval in this poll since last June.
....
1 in 20 think he's doing a better job than last month? What changed?
"Most of the gains came from his fellow Democrats, 77 percent of whom approved of him, evidence that he is bolstering his position within his core constituency."
Ugh. He gives them the status quo and 77% lap it up.
At the moment, that's a worse number than the 59% of self-described "libertarians" who voted to re-elect Dubya.
...
Alright, enough polischticking for me...
JBTFD!
Hey slugo, 1300 is just around the corner.
@Larry
Can't wait (to buy "TLT" calls, that is)...
Don't bother me just now... I'm snow blowing!
Too bad the S&P has trailed gold and silver for the past year...
Oh no wait... Make that "12 years"...
"Don't bother me just now... I'm snow blowing!"
Oh no!!!!!!!!!
Don't tell me all those appearances on CNBC with Kudlow & Ron Insana have gotten to you in THAT way!
@Bothritz
Where I lived in Umbria, Italia... "Panicale sul Trasimeno was nearby and was close to the home of Lamborghini (which originally did engines for tractors & snowblowers)...
Bet you're jealous!
Now I gotta go too...
Since there's snow on the ground... I'm going to go skiing and take some pictures...
Because they're WAY more interesting than seeing boring old pictures from, St. Moritz, Chamonix, Kitzbuhel, or Gstaad...
Don't take that comment out of context! Like when I said I was long, "was" is the key word. If the market goes up, I "was" long before it went. If the market goes down, I "was" long before it went... I win either way... got it? Now back to blowing snow... errr, snow jobing, dammit! ...snow blowing!
I totally understand...
That's why your name is "Bothritz"
Where in the hell does all this snow come from.
No work today....sledding day today! I am buying a snow blower from Amazon today. None of the stores in the area carry them. No one ever needed them before.
"Total accumulation of less than an inch"
That is the forecast for my area today...what a maroon! We have to have 4 more inches at least compared with last night.
71% Oppose Raising Debt Ceiling As Congress Prepares To Ignore Supermajority's Wishes Again
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/71-oppose-raising-debt-ceiling-congress-prepares-ignore-supermajoritys-wishes-again
Meet the NEW NEW BOSSE(s)... Same as the OLD OLD BOSSE(s)...
Apparently - It costs a lot of money these days to have a fancy "tea party"... Must be the inflation...
CV.. loved the morning audibles!! that Couric tape was fantastic.. all of it was.. really a treat : )
Seeing TIP down just as LB forecast.. Seeing BAC leapfrog has me ill, however.
Snow on the ground in 49 states...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36740125/vp/34328514#34328514?from=msnhp>1=43001
Wow! 49 out of 57... That's a high percentage!
Why don't you loan me that snowblower CV? Or send Lefty over here and we'll try to melt it with hot air....
@karen
CV is secretly "rooting" for BAC to stay afloat...
There's a branch really close to my house, and they smilingly hand me 5 rolls of nicklels every time I go in there with a $10 FRN...
@Bruce
By the looks of your driveway... I'd suggest a "Bobcat"...
http://www.bobcat.com/utility_machines/tractors
here you have it in a nutshell:
U.S. stocks start higher, lifted by strength in the banking sector
01/12/2011 09:57:02 AM
Finally we're getting to the bottom of things...
Flying drunk proves fatal for Romanian bird flock
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41037289/ns/world_news-europe
"BUCHAREST (Reuters Life!) - There was nothing mysterious about the death of a flock of birds in Romania last week -- they were simply drunk, veterinarians said..."
I think I will be calling Tony today at the WFC exchange desk to see what the buyback rate is today on my loonies..
Whatever he meant by this.. i don't like the inference: Ashraf Laidi,
Even people above age of 50 on TV are starting sentences with "so". when will Bernanke say "QE3, doh, like really"
very cute: http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/01/11/guest-post-the-stock-rabbi-on-not-being-a-schmuck/
A superb deck of slides for fixed income guys and the women who love Bond:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/its-gundlach-jeffrey-gundlach-and-his-latest-contrarian-thoughts
If you missed the message it is: Deflation, bitchez.
Gundlach is a fan of MBS and govies.
Many HFs may not be big players today. Even SAC is under about 18 inches of snow as the Greenwich-Westport area was hit much harder than the city.
Mike Bergen
Bernanke loves to talk about a "wealth effect" from higher stocks - how about a "poverty effect" from higher food, gas, etc for most ppl?
Excess snow on Wall St...
So what else is new?
LB. for heaven's sake.. just because you don't have internet in your lair..
ppl? We don't need no stinkin' ppl!
CV, LOL!
ugh.. just looked at JJC.. i cannot deal with that chart!
who among us bot the DF dip yesterday? it almost touched its 5 ema... you have to be sharp if you want to get in on that one.
if i didn't mention the possibility of an abandoned baby on BAC today, no one would know me anymore..
At 61.8 retrace of all time low to all time high on EUR, actions tomorrow...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/the-bid-abides-48-cash/
another abandoned baby? lulu
Megaphones bitchez!
new chart in thread
1296 is next 18 number.. just sayin'
Khloe Kardashian Pregnant?
http://specials.msn.com/A-List/Lifestyle/Khloe-pregnant.aspx?cp-documentid=27202196
I swear... It's NOT me! (this time)
Would you like to see a dinosaur with atrocious relative strength? Look at MCD compared to the S&P500 starting in December. In my opinion, this is a classic case of MF managers, who almost always use relative strength in addition to their fundamental analysis, dumping a bad stock.
Given that they were probably chasing it up (due to relative outperformance earlier in the year), I wouldn't be surprised to see them continue to unwind positions this quarter.
It's not cheap, the dividend is not as attractive as it was a year ago, and the selling pressure make this one a true dog.
Just some other notes: don't forget that they financed their Chinese expansion with Japanese yen. I call that a gamble; large upside or downside and certainly more vol.
hey, this is good..
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan11/dollar-rises01-11.html
11:00:00 EST Briefing.com
A refreshed buying effort has taken the stock market to a new high for the day. The move also puts the market at its best level in 28 months.
Financials, now up 1.4%, continue to lead a broad-based advance that has all 10 major sectors in positive territory. Even telecom has caught a bid, though it is still a relative laggard. Telecom's 0.4% gain today pales in comparison to the 6.0% that the sector lost during the course of the four previous sessions.
With investors willing to hold riskier issues like stocks, the dollar has come under increased pressure in recent trade. In turn, the Dollar Index is now down 0.5%, which puts it at a fresh session low and a new weekly low.
gee, the nas is not keeping up with the joneses.. only up .62%
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/facebook-goldman-sachs-we-trust
This could go another hundo on the dow with just a push...
I'm not sure if this is such a good thing on the 60 min: $cpmktl
Kate Hudson Pregnant with Rocker BF Matt Bellamy!
http://www.postchronicle.com/news/original/article_212343011.shtml
"Just days after Actor Owen Wilson revealed he and his girlfriend Jade Duell are expecting a child together"
---
Jeez! Seems like there was a lot of hubba hubba going on this past summer...
They should have been JBTFD (and they'd all be rich!)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ImRyPymRAM&feature=related
SPY 128.58 is the 423.60% extension of that chart that I put in the thread...
fascinating tidbit as I was looking into the dow high of July 2008.. the next number to beat.. July 28:
high 11820.21
low 11410.02
close 11632.38
I'd say the Fed has succeeded in removing volatility from the market..
I-Man
Looks like they want to keep this charade going until the banks report their earnings. Which happens to coincide with opex week. Just sayin'
How can a market be a "charade"?
There is a buyer and a seller for every trade...
@karen
The last time the UPPER BAND of the (2,20) Weekly BB's was this low was July '07...
"Subprime is contained!"
"There is a buyer and a seller for every trade..."
TRUE:
JPM Algo: "I'll sell 127.00"
GS Algo: "I'll buy 127.00"
GS Algo: "I'll sell 127.25"
JPM Algo: "I'll buy 127.25"
JPM Algo: "I'll sell 127.50"
GS Algo: "I'll buy 127.50"
JPM Algo: "I'll sell 127.75"
No bid
Brian Sack Algo: "I'll buy 127.75"
Johnny: "I'll JBTFD"
Brian Sack Algo: "Sold to you at 127.74"
It's called "Efficient Markets Theory"...
JPM Al
"I'd say the Fed has succeeded in removing volatility from the market.."
Maybe they just pushed the vol into the fixed income market :D
It even goes on in the supermarkets...
Supermarket: "I'll sell you CATFOOD for $1.50 a can"
Grandma: "I can only afford $1.00 a can"
Supermarket: "Reduce can size 50% (then knock 33% off the price and advertise a SALE ON catfood - "2 cans for $2, but only if you buy two cans)
Grandma: "I'll do a reverse mortgage on my house, and take two cans please"... I'll put the rest into tax free munis...
"1 in 20 think he's doing a better job than last month? What changed?"
Social mood
presidential popularity and stock market performance are very closely linked, it's not about what politicians do, it's about how people feel.
fundmyfund Mark H
$$ Canadians now have more debt per income than Americans - raising fears of a bubble to the north. http://is.gd/AmwIHf
CV, the truth is far simpler... but that makes for a good short story.
"1 in 20 think he's doing a better job than last month? What changed?"
He avoided the "triple bogey" on the 12th hole at Kapalua...
He's ready for the PGA Tour now...
@I-Man
What is the truth?
That "cognos", "Harry Wanger", & "Robo Trader" are battling it out amongst each other?
1,300 became the better next target when 1250 was broken sharply as posted here, it's not magic, this is basic charting 101, the waves have been a lot clearer lately, and had nothing to do with the Fed, 1350 is still in the cards as well but a much lesser probability as internals are mixed as we move higher
was today really so hard to see coming after the successful debt offering from Portugal?
it would seem this board has become fed watchers anonymous
take a look around for just 30 seconds, people are bullish!!!!!
"" karen said...
1296 is next 18 number.. just sayin' ""
I'm sayin' it too sweetie...
1332
1314
1296
1278
1260
1242
key "18" pivots
I-Man
But the buyers and sellers are algos, JBTFD'ers (who buy from the insiders who are selling). It's like juggling plastic knives and wondering when they'll get switched to the real thing.
Mr Top Step
big seller of $ED_F 2yr #bundles thru screens, a steepener being unwound? where the short $TY_F part of the trade covrd via the auction 2day
@ben22
Answer me this question (honestly)...
What reasonable "probability" would you have placed on reaching 1350 had it not been for:
- Change of FASB rules
- "Stimulus Program"
- QE
- QE2
- European Bank bailouts
CV, your question is irrelevant.
Does it matter "who" is trading against "who"?
Isnt that the beauty of a price chart? The anonymity?
Its when I get caught up in the who's, why's, what's, etc that my trading starts to suffer...
Ben, I have noticed what you have, when you say the waves are clearer, I agree that the market action is clearer than it was a month ago... I think its just volume.
The market trades its cleanest in heavy volume, imo.
CV, again at 12:13...
The question is irrelevant.
Ra, for every algo making trades, there is a trader who programmed it.
Kevin Depew
Been waiting for the last index, the SPX, to hit the WEEKLY TD Prop Up Exhaustion target of 1287.42. Been a struggle to get there.
A couple things: Just because TD Prop targets are met, doesn't mean we can throw down shorts and celebrate all the way to Mark Joseph's.
I guess my point is, it doesnt matter a bit if its Wanger, I-Man, karen, Ritholtz, GS, JPM, SAC, getco, whoever...
It doesnt matter if its a machine or a human...
It is all the same thing, and its the same as it ever was.
Same as it ever was.
Same as it ever was.
Meredith Whitney Defends Muni Call, Sees 'Indiscriminate Selling' http://yhoo.it/hkOrXg
I was waiting for someone to tell me I was IRRELEVANT...
Thanks for clearing that up for me...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-12/short-selling-against-s-p-500-companies-drops-to-one-year-low.html
CV,
I think you've already got your mind made up right?
How about instead of me answering I'll just send you the April 2009 elliott wave theorist where all the targets are laid out? this way you'll just see it in writing with a date. It's on there, before the Fed did anything they started making the calls in February 2009 for where the rally would go because the wave pattern made it so. The higher targets were lower probabilities, never impossibilities, along the way people had to find "answers" for their disbelief in the "manufactured rally". People like dead hobo would ask me what I'd do for my clients if I was wrong about being bullish....now he's a bull.
It's funny how this outlook has now become consensus just before we re-enter bear market....but see nobody is calling for that either, it just "can't happen", so when some nasty event occurs while we're in that bear market you'll end up asking me this same question again and the vast majority of people will use the events to tell you why we are in a bear market.
I've not deviated from viewing the market in this lense since I started talking to any of you, so we are going on about 3 years, don't hold your breath for me to change, despite all the "evidence"
and CV,
as for me as an individual, everyone here already knows what I did, I got super bullish in late 08, and just sat and waited for 1k as the minimum target and made a bunch of money, then I thought after that you'd need to trade again so I dumped all my longs at 1k and have done my best to trade ever since in a very very difficult market. Results have been mixed since then.
I didn't think we were going to get this high, no way, but the market doesn't care about what I think.
I-man,
I think we are now entering another period of general predictability like GN talks about. I think it's fairly clear that e-wave has been nearly useless for a big portion of this rally.
Of course, in the EWP (written in the 70's) people are warned that corrections are damn near impossible to count in real time.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-12/aig-s-asset-sales-are-making-company-weaker-former-chief-greenberg-says.html
and make no mistake, the exogneous cause model is THE model of choice for the mast majority of people in this world
MW on CNBC this morning was asked over and over again
"whats your event"
because how could she ever be correct without a catalyst
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/update-on-portugal-bond-auction.html
and last comment on this, 666-1350 would be considered a "fat-tail" right?
so what's "new" about that?
the market is all about fat tail events, for centuries now it's been this way
CV, you are surely not irrelevant, I just thought the questions were.
Not a personal attack at all, and if it came across that way, I apologize.
UUP tapped its 34 week ema.. uptrend still intact.. possibly forming right shoulder (inverted.)
Sometimes I wish this were all a script where I could just follow the fed and do what they do.
The truth is, it isnt anymore easy to buy a dip than it is to sell a rip.
Its never easy. If it were, I'd be rich, and so would all of you.
CV,
I'm not attacking you either when I say you already made your mind up. I saw you comment about a week ago that your targets for the S&P would have been correct last year if not for the Fed, so I figure it doesn't really matter what I say, you are convinced one way or the other already.
I didn't read this as a joke because you won't normally take the time to type out "I honestly believe" unless you actually do.
@ben22
Both you and I-Man are totally missing the point of what I'm trying to express...
You "interpret" me to be saying "THE MARKET SHOULD NOT BE GOING THERE"...
Instead... All I'm saying is (the SAME way you're saying it)... In April of 2009, that would have been a "low probability" assignment...
& I'm comfortable in my assessment that had it NOT BEEN for Fed maneuvering, then we might not be talking about those levels now...
Maybe we would have reached that high anyway... Maybe WORLD PEACE would have broken out spontaneously... Maybe every Chinaman would have bought a car... Maybe "free energy" would have been discovered... Maybe "hope & change" would have actually ensued... Maybe the 2nd coming of Jesus, or Mohammed, or Buddha, or Krishna, or Confucious would have occurred... Maybe Alladin's Genie would have jumped out of the lamp...
But none of those things happened... So... Using MEH's method of "occam's razor"... I don't mind assigning a high degree of probability (with regards to CAUSALITY) to the FED (and - in the process - point out what an ULTIMATELY USELESS and probably DEVASTATING factor that is likely to become in the aftermath)...
So we're talking about different things here...
- You & I-Man are saying "We're here... and the tape suggests that "xy&z" are in the cards... Let's keep vigilant for the signposts that lie along that road...
- I'm in a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT place... I'm simply pointing out that the higher we go, the more DOOM is likely to ensue (because of the ERRONEOUS "causality" that sheeple are making)...
Hell... On a different subject... I tried to tell people that Obama was FOS back in 2008... How the hell did I know anything...
Now... Here we are... So was I incorrect about Obama?... I suppose all the bad decisions he's made were just an "accident of the universe"...
Treasury Budget and Beige Book out in 13.. not that we need the fed or news to move the market.
@ben22
The most important thing I said in that last comment was with regards to "causality"...
It's not what actually happens (nor ever is)... It's what people BELIEVE is happening...
When I look around, I see a bunch of people who are CONVINCED that the Fed is responsible (which effects their behavior patterns)...
As a trainer, I understand very well the POWER OF SUGGESTION... Half the time I think I could tell someone to bounce on their head and eat grapefruits for 3 weeks straight and they'd BELIEVE me that that would be a viable method to lose weight...
It's called "suspension of disbelief" (which is what movie plotlines do all the time and is the first thing they teach you in film school)...
My referrals to THE FED have to do with the "suspension of disbelief" game that they are playing... NOT the closing level of the SPX on any given day...
Ok, I can deal with that.
One part I struggle with though, is that if there is more doom around the corner...
Then why do those doom scenario's keep getting taken out, and retested on the charts?
(not asking for an answer, just something to consider.)
I dont think we will make a lower low than 666 on spx/es... I dont say that out of anything fundamental or macro, I just say that because the setups keep getting busted.
The way I trade is open to upside and downside targets off every pivot in price, but if the downside targets keep getting busted, I wont keep looking to trade them.
Its the same whether its a 1,5,15min chart or 60min, daily, weekly etc...
I'm going to step away for a bit, but this is an important conversation.
Guarantee you that few "trading" blogs ever discuss this, and its crucial.
All those doom scenarios, when I brought the tablets down from the Empire State Building I told you there was no doom. Silly rabbits.
When interest rates start going up, and we say hello to our little debt friends, and they cost more to keep in the house.
Seen Greece?
@I-Man
I got your last post (from above), and just want to say one last thing...
What you have to understand is that you and I are playing different roles here...
You're a trader (who is trying to make $$ off the tape)...
I'm a blog host of SURVIVOR CAPITAL...
My goal is to present a "message"... If I just talked tape all day... If the tape continued to be strong, a casual "passr-by" might end up just thinking I was Harry Wanger or something...
So it compels me to include "suggestions" that Fed maneuvering (and you can't deny that they employ a HAND'S OFF policy), is likely harmful and counterproductive...
That's what differentiates my POV from that of Ritholtz (or someone)... It's all fine and dandy to him... He needn't bother as long as he's raking in the semolians...
I'd prefer, for myself, to have deeper reasons for doing things...
3.388% was the high yield for the 10y auction.
Not the worst.
Looking hard at 4.60% on the 30y if we get there.
Taking the rest of the day off to watch Liverpool.
Yeah, I kno, right?.....
meant to say... 'It would be hard to say 'THE FED IS A HAND'S OFF ORGANIZATION' and keep a straight face...
Anyway... Nowadays, with regards to taking out 666...
I really don't know anymore... All I know is this...
If 'monetary policy' continues to pound out the strategy of KICK THE DEBT CAN DOWN THE ROAD AT ALL COSTS...
Then... I have NO IDEA how the indices will react (nor do I care)... I believe the only viable SURVIVAL mechanism I'd have in that case would be to own physical goods...
If and when that "suspension of belief" gets BURSTED... There may be a chance on the other side of that to hold financial assets again...
Right now... I'd rather own physical assets than financial assets (tied to fiat currencies)...
Now go ahead and tell ME whether or not you think 'some little bird' just told me to act that way, or if I'm REACTING to the institution that supplies the fiat currency I'm referring to, and (PASS or FAIL), conducts an ongoing and blatant campaign to manage the flow of that on both a macro & micro level...
I'm too stupid to know...
Another eloquent presentation from Rosie:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rosenberg-presents-wile-e-coyote-market-18-easy-charts
Why do you always say you are leaving and then hang around?? LOL
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/1/12/down-days-disappear.html
The low participation by B/Ds in the 10y auction today means that "we're not there yet" in terms of getting "all aboard" the long bond. Still a 91 handle on TLT will have a few people nibbling. Let's see what tomorrow's PPI looks like and we will also get a new POMO schedule at 2pm today.
@ben22
and I know your laughing your ass off at this comment...
"If 'monetary policy' continues to pound out the strategy of... bla bla bla"...
Because you think it IMPLIES one thing happening causing another thing to happen...
That's not what I'm saying... I'm just saying that's how it's likely to be interpreted by PEOPLE...
People aren't very good at thinking on their own... You're a guy that likes PROBABILITY MATRICES... Well - the "probability matrix" on this one is going to be that the people think that the government & Fed have "control" over things...
Why do you always say you are leaving and then hang around?? LOL
B/c we loooove the company here, and b/c CV is a huuuuuuuuuuge fan of our fixed income analysis.
mostly b/c we adore your ankles.
@I-Man
...and not that it matters... But on this...
"CV, you are surely not irrelevant, I just thought the questions were..."
I AM my thoughts, and my thoughts are ME
anon @ 1:27, i just can't wait! guess you haven't taken off yet.. btw, don't eat yellow snow.
"B/c we loooove the company here, and b/c CV is a huuuuuuuuuuge fan of our fixed income analysis"...
Just tell me when to buy TLT calls...
And if the answer to that is "March"... Then does somebody else mind coming up with a unique and/or entertaining thread topic every day for the next 7 weeks?
spy and dia 5 min chart say a sell off is coming..
not what you see I-Man?
CV,
I'm going to have to say we are not really talking about the same things, which is fine, and I'd like to leave it at that. I think I've had this debate enough times here, at TBP, at Andy's, at the other blog, where I work, with other advisors, with family, with mutual fund managers, economists and on and on and on. I fall on one side, and then there is.....pretty much everybody else. Just kind of tired of trying to state my case at this point because it would seem to me nobody is listening as I'm constantly repeating the same things over and over again. Simply put, I'm tired of my own broken record.
I carry a view that basically isn't popular or believed by many people. Ok. I simply pointed out that I thought this was a site of traders, I come here for comments like the one anon made at 1:27, and pretty much most of what I read here of late are posts about the Fed, just wanted to try to steer us back to the tape. It's not my house though so it's not up to me.
my charts are fickle.. : )
i cannot argue with bill gross here: http://dealbreaker.com/2011/01/bill-gross-elaborates-on-his-us-policy-makers-are-praying-mantises-having-sex-with-us-and-then-biting-our-heads-off-analogy/
You're onto something there K,
But check it off the 15 and 30...
And you'll have a nice dip that only those with patience have waited for.
Something I've noticed is that there are a lot of folks trading out there without the right timing. They hit the price right alot, but at the wrong time. I do it too, and its one of the more frustrating things about this game.
Thats where the musician's "play the rest" mentality comes into play.
"Its easy to play any musical instrument. All you have to do is touch the right key at the right time, and the instrument will play itself."
-J.S. Bach
Please don't bite my head off. I like the other part.
this is so funny! Zerohedge says:
Nobody cares about Beige Book. Everyone cares about new POMO schedule
I am not even gonna read this one! Freddie Mac says rising mortgage rates won't stop the housing recovery in 2011 http://goo.gl/fb/G0ryy
zerohedge: Fed to buy $112 billion in next month
Oil supplies fall; gasoline stockpiles build http://yhoo.it/i6qqD1
I can't wait till POMO is sell the news, lol
GovMo needs to hold 38.50.
@ben22
"I'm tired of my own broken record..."
"just wanted to try to steer us back to the tape"
Lately - the TAPE has been a broken record (from where I sit)... It's the 12th of January (and all I've basically heard ABOUT THE TAPE, since about December 2nd is about how we're probably going to 1300+ (which has been correct)...
I'm just trying to keep MYSELF entertained in the process (even though those efforts seem to have little impact elsewhere)...
I've joking about "silver bitchez" & "nickles bitchez" & catfood since this past summer... (and I'm only interested in the physical)...
And since I believe that, and have stated that, these are acting as a BETA to the regular indices... The PROSPECT of "the indices" going to 1300 (or 1350), puts me in a state of INERTIA because I'm not willing to trade or accumulate further along the risk curve that that presents...
I'll gladly step aside here to assuage everyone from my "inertia" hang-up...
starting 2011 e*trade will be reporting cost basis to the IRS.. this is about effing time.. LOL..
Someone's playing chicken with the mystery seller...
If SPX takes out todays earlier high it'll probably break 1290 before the close. Did I put enough qualifiers in there?
If SPX takes out 1286, it'll probably make a new high today. There I fixed it.
CV,
I'm really not trying to be Johnny argue everything today but the tape is never a broken record
my thoughts on Fed causality.....not so much, those are boring and always the same.
but if that is how you see it then I say......screw "the market" there are thousands of individual stocks out there! Look at that p.o.s. NFLX, down over $20 off it's peak!
If SPX takes out 1286 BEFORE THE CLOSE, I meant.
forget nflx.. look at LULU's wedge on the 10 min today..
how'd you like that gap up open if you were short and individual name to the tune of 10k shares or so..
and btw, the massive action in options with complex bear trades continues today....
someone(s) either about to make a killing or this group is going to lost 200-300 million by the end of next month.
Scott Bleier
question for Elliot Wave Counters: Is the $SPX in the midst of its 5th wave up since the March lows? Isn't it usually the best? then kerpow?
Question for Scott Bleier:
Will you sell me your monitors when you blow up?
i am watching lulu with bated breath.. seriously.. if it can make a new HOD.. ANYTHING CAN AND WILL.
Fed: Economy Expanded on Manufacturing, Holiday Spending http://bit.ly/gtZ
There are no gaps on the 5 min SPX (except for the open). So not much to pull back for a test. Sheesh.
this fellow might not be with us much longer: Julian Assange Says His 'Insurance' Files Include Cables On Rupert Murdoch And News Corp by @GlynnMacN http://read.bi/fpdZRv
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CR
Crude Oil 92.77 +0.41 +0.44
Natural Gas 4.470 -0.006 -0.13
Corn 633 +26 +4.30
Soybeans 1415.0 +58.0 +4.27
30yr Bond 120.71875 -0.25000 -0.21
10yr Note 120.546875 -0.328125 -0.27
NY Gold 1384.3 0.0 0.00
NY Silver 29.545 +0.046 +0.16
US Dollar
80.083
-0.763 -0.98%
http://www.ino.com/
Today's News
Federal budget deficit narrows to $80B in December
7 minutes ago
AAIP
http://mrtopstep.com/2011/01/12/mr-topstep-intraday-charts-wheres-the-beef-23-fib-1279-60/spx-1279-60-2-3-fib/
30 min 3LB trending up with reversal at 1283.02.
lol, that question from Scott Bleier is funny
First question: 5 up from March....NO, a wave up ended in april, it's debatable the form since then, one might have us in a triangle, or we are in wave 5, as Andy had mapped out on his charts, Danerics count is likely wrong but he's also got us in a wave 5. There is no large impulse pattern from the March lows, you can bank on that, this entire move was corrective.
Second Question: isn't it usually the best wave (wave 5)....lol, NO, that's third waves or C waves which are like 3's.
Third question: yes, after five up you get a correction.
Last....this one is free: it's Elliott
"if that is how you see it..."
C'Mon Man! If you say that, then it means you didn't bother to read what I was saying...
I never said "I saw it like that" (or if I did, I'm just guilty of typing too fast and/or not getting my explanation clear)...
My "implication" is that THAT IS HOW THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE SEE IT (whether anyone likes it or not)...
It's no different from how I handicap football games... How many times do you see me paying "little attention" to the "X"'s & "O"'s, and A LOT of attention to what percentage of the money is bet on one side or the other?
The take away from that is that I, like yourself, don't put a lot of FAITH into "causality" (because I'm more willing to bet a game simply because the PUBLIC gets carried away)...
"Causality" would imply that because Atlanta is 18-2 in the Georgia Dome with Matty Ice as QB, then the Packers don't stand a chance...
But that's what the sportswriters are going to talk about all week... You won't hear one sportswriter saying "51% of the public's money is on Atlanta, and 49% is on GB"... Or, 36% of the money is on the Jets, so I'm going to take them and the points... You're SURE to hear about Tom Brady, Belichick, and Rex Ryan...
---
I could go into my class tonight and talk about "Krebs Cycle", "actin", "myosin", and glycemic indices... But that wouldn't be very entertaining... Even though that is what's really in play...
So here... I'll just write TOMORROWS HEADLINE today (and someone can cut and paste it)...
S&P not at 1300 yet! JBTFD... Check back tomorrow...
new high for lulu..
Truth be told it looks like a fight to either hold 10 handles or retrace back to the open.
they sure BTFD in GLD today.. even GDX is green now.
And if you think CV is a big believer in "causality"... Then I challenge anyone on this board to an NFL 'hadicapping' tournament next season...
I'll leave you all to peruse your STAT SHEETS...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-11/argentina-buys-more-pesos-from-brazil-as-bills-disappear-from-banks-atms.html
What if its closer to 1400?
:)
CV,
re: if that's how you see it,
there were a lot of I's here were there not:
"Lately - the TAPE has been a broken record (from where I sit)... It's the 12th of January (and all I've basically heard ABOUT THE TAPE, since about December 2nd is about how we're probably going to 1300+ (which has been correct)..."
"from where I sit" "all I've basically heard"
where's my survivor capital decoder pen?
even if you were just relaying what you observed the thoughts of all the other people were, I read the post as: "this is how I see things having been since December 2, I think the markets been a broken record since then"
I think other things have been going on all over the place plus, the other reason I said that was because that's not how I remembered it since Dec 2, hence, if that's how YOU see it. I recall an awful lot of techs I read on a regular basis and lots of blogs going short at or around 1218 ES in early December before all the Santa Claus rally blah blah and the reminder that it would be the "third year of the presidential cycle" in 2011. The rally was already 3 months old by then and I don't remember a lot of people talking 1,300 back then either outside of the Birinyi's of the world who are always bullish.
I'll have to read more closely.
$ Vol Net
SPX +47M
NYSE +11.25M
NASD +19M
-------
BKX +1.58%
XLF +1.66%
AUDJPY +0.41%
EURJPY +0.79%
and yet the market is struggling to stay up.
This is one of those moments where it seems like just a feather touch in either direction will spark a nice move...
Here's me dip, might cause a slip... but hope it rips.
"I recall an awful lot of techs I read on a regular basis"...
---
I'll have to go back and read all my comments over the past 6 weeks, but I don't recall making a lot of market calls... (I don't recall being a Lazlo Birinyi over the holidays)... In fact... I outright "shunned" the idea of making a TOP/BOTTOM call for 2011 (even for fun)... All I did was put a period at the end of the sentence on that game for 2010... Last look... I was "wrong" on the bottom call... I was "wrong" taking the Oregon Ducks too...
I've put up a number of GANN charts (sans comment), when some technical levels (mostly FIBOS, Gann lines, BB's, or whatever were clear on the chart), but not much in the way of "market calls" except to express frustration that the market is going so long without correcting...
The quote that you clipped out above is a RETROSPECTIVE of how I look at things today (during the same relative period)...
It "looks" like a broken record... My "sense" tells me that it is not how a market would behave if it were to trade on STARK realities (especially the LOW VOLATILITY part)... the likes of which [stark realities] that a Hugh Hendry, Rosie, or Jim Chanos like to express...
But the reality to THAT is... "How the hell do I know how it would trade if introduced to STARK realities (or even if I'm 'incorrect' that it's not already doing so)?...
I'm wondering if you would be as upset at Hendry, or Rosie if they ever made a lamentful comment about the Fed as you seem to take issue with me doing so...
AR, 1283.02 a possibility?
Karen
I'll let you know in 3 minutes...
oh come on.. one penny.. ?? no way.
or did i blink.. i only saw .03
it's coming tho.. i'm sure of it..
Karen
It tagged 1283.03 with a minute left. LMAO.
PLEASE let this be a sign of the top!
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-investors-are-all-about-lululemon-right-now-2011-1
I-Man
Your rip higher cometh...
I'll just stop and talk about "individual stocks"...
LULU - P/E of around 50 (by whatever measure of accounting they like to use)... Seems expensive & risky...
NFLX - P/E of around 70... ditto rest of above
BAC - Probably insolvent... Seems risky AT ANY PRICE (without QE)... But the Fed doesn't matter...
C - ditto
WFC - ditto
AAPL - 20% of NASDAQ... Everybody and their brother from Neptune into the stock (with leverage)... Seems risky...
Well - So much for "individual stocks" for CV's risk appetite
Back from the frozen wastelands patrolled by Sgt. Preston. He just went by in his sled with his pistol drawn and dogs straining at the traces.
When, oh when, is it supposed to stop snowing?
Hey the 10 year had one of those sinusoidal thingys today, Lefty. Did you make any money?
Yeah, wasnt worth it, Ra.
It slipped me the first time, but I caught the 2nd...
Paid for my first mistake and got me an extra $35.
Woo hoo...
Cya all,
-I
Mr Top Step
chatter = buy side now up to $512M
the buy side sure isn't accomplishing much..
C (hod)... BAC (hod)...
I'm going to have to research those stocks a little more to see what I'm missing...
I-Man
I was watching TRIN. It kept flashing +600 to +800. Somebody/thing was doing some buying during the lulls.
CV
Easy. Accurate financial records.
Yeah, I'm not technically supposed to be even trading after 3:40 est, but sometimes you just got to.
But it tends to have me trail my stop tighter than I normally would, which gets me out of alot of the end of day moves, regardless of direction.
To be honest CV, I have a little cash left in my old trading account, and have thought about swingtrading C, BAC, F, etc... to try and stack that account back up again.
I LOVE trailing stops. Will save you from many sleepless nights.
Ditto. Even though I manually trail them most of the time, they really helped me to cut my losses down, which were already small to begin with, but EVERY tick counts.
CV, they say BAC is trading below book value.. and if you believe that, i'm sure i can find a bridge to sell you..
We might see 1500-1600 before we ever see 1200.. at least that is what price and time is seeing.. $105 crude.. whatever!
gotta get outside.. we finally have warmth here.. i'll wash me car : )
pilates this evening (with Carolyn as the instructor..)
later all! AR, we were close!
me = my
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704515904576076332808788382.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us
Goldman Bankers, Ascendant Again
"Under another change, traders will suffer if the market for collateralized debt obligations and other complicated deals backed by mortgages or other loans rebounds. Goldman's Business Standards Committee yanked the power to underwrite such deals away from traders at the firm, handing it to the investment-banking unit.
Goldman's Michael Evans had an influential role in shaping the changes.
.Even a ban on traders and brokers writing anything "expressing a view" about a deal Goldman underwrote for 30 days following the deal's execution is a reminder of the embarrassment and financial risk suffered by the company, partly because of emails written by traders."
..Traders take it in the shorts...Investment banking! Now that's the ticket. Traders please get to the back of the bus....de nada.
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