A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
This rematch is ready for prime time. So..."Let's Get ready to Rumble!"
Creditcane™: Can't you feel it? Something's wrong. Even the big boys are scared.
SPXBearish harami day (the reversal pattern that refuses to be confirmed). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1259.78). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the 38.2% retrace (80.63). Back below SMA(144), SMA(21) $ SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.03)…yet.
VIXSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.45). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Still has a monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDBearish long day. Back below SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Still below 14.6% retrace (1392.69) but didn't test the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1368.90). Must have the precious.
EURUSDBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 38.2% retrace at 1.3121. Back above SMA(21) & SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3395).
JNKSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below SMA(89) but still above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).
10YR YIELDBearish long day. The 23.6% retrace at 32.75 is begging for a test. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Failing upper trendline.
CRBBearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No test of new 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 323.94).
IQISpinning top day (failed taker confirmation). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). Still testing its 0.0% retrace (11.45). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 12.30).
30YR YIELDSpinning top day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.98). It's waiting for something. Maybe the truth?
TLTBullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Tested and failed its 76.4% retrace (92.50). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 90.94). "I've fallen and I can't get up."
LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT
The Bond Report 1.13.11
Corpies: LQD 0.43%; JNK -0.10%; HYG -0.02%
Govies: TLT 0.90%; IEI 0.39%; TIP 0.31%; AGG 0.36%;
Munis: IQI -0.35; MUB -1.15
Mortgages: MBB 0.12
Hedgies: TBT -1.62%
The continued weakness in munis may have contributed to the strength in the US Treasury market today, despite a not very terrific auction of 30y. IG was bid ahead of HY today and the whole day had a "risk off" feel to it.
The failure of TLT to sell off after noon today was striking. A break of the muni market to new lows might well create an increased aversion to risk in the US credit market.
We have been trimming risk in credit. HYG down from 22% to 18%. TIP from 15 to 6%. TLT from 0 to 2%. AGG from 0 to 5%. Hedges are off in bonds. Fixed income up from 31% (hedged) to 34% (unhedged) into the 3 day weekend.
24 comments:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/ACM_The%20Great%20Vega%20Short.pdf
Apologies if this was posted already -- I'm behind in my reading. Excellent perspective, if long.
From Andy Crowder:
It was just another day in the park for the bulls. The continued push since the gap higher on 1/3 has managed to push the tech-heavy QQQQ into a short-term “very overbought” extreme with an RSI (2) at 98.4. As I always state, when an ETF typically reaches an extreme of this manner the market fades over the short-term (1-3 days). A move that pushes QQQQ lower would likely close the gap at $54.62 which would mean a 3.5% loss for the QQQQ.
Got a complete ass-kicking on Bucky today. It was awesome.
Bucky did not look good. Lets see if this 78.75-79 zone holds.
Goldman went bullish on the Euro - targeting 1.37. FWIW.
Yeah, my working theory on the DXY was that 79.75 had to hold, thus I was max long just in front of it. The break of 79.75 forced me out of 80% of DX.
Still long the core 20% of Max holding and probably will be till it goes to ZERO, but today wasn't great.
The good news is I've avoided being short the S&P...it still hasn't broken down below certain key technical levels. So, I've stayed away.
Preservation of trading and mental capital is critical....
I see the Canadians are busy banning really old Dire Straits songs...
http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2011/01/13/dire-straits-money-ruled-offensive-canada/?test=faces
haha, that'll help, I'm sure. Seriously, who cares? Don't listen to the song.
I'm definitely running low on mental capital. Taken a couple shots at the S&P. The worst is to catch a small move down, then have it reverse and go against you. Ugh. Exhausting. Same thing just happened with Bucky. Small losses are starting to add up...grrr. I'm going to learn something from you here and wait for it to break.
Andy T
I'm waiting for a daily 3LB reversal down, a close below the weekly 3LB mid or anything that says the trend on the SPX is ready to change.
A few weeks ago, Ben22 cited Neely's idea that we all fall into a few different categories of traders "naturally":
1) Bottom and Top Pickers
2) Momentum Traders (Buy High/Sell Higher or Sell Low/Buy back Lower)
3) But the dip/Sell the Rally folks
I am NOT a momentum trade. I'm mostly a #1 type who tries to pick significan tops and bottoms. I think the initial moves after major tops and bottoms are made are usually very significant. So, it's "fun" to catch those things.
I "can" be a #3 type, but that doesn't come naturally.
So, the key is understanding your nature and "what you are" and then to know what kind of market your in....
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/football/ncaa/01/13/newton.going.pro.ap/index.html?eref=sihp
Cam Newton leaving college for Pros...
Who would have thunk it?
Bull/bear dueling interviews with Schilling/Siegel over at pragcap. Our man Schilling is full of wit, wisdom and insight. Siegel, as usual, is full of...well, we'll let you sniff for yourself, but it's definitely bullish.
By nature I think I favor #1. See a good set up, set your stops and take a shot. I can see how one makes money with the momo strategy, but it doesn't feel right to me. Overall I'm not a well enough developed trader to be definitive. Helpful categories, though.
That's why I use 3LB. It tells me things are a changin' when there's a reversal. I haven't dedicated enough time to EWT to use it proficiently. But insane moves in the market don't bother me as much if they don't break the levels from 3LB. Now I'll admit I'll take a position after a weekly reversal without waiting for confirmation. But that's me. An ITM option (delta 0.7 or higher) is my usual move (with a 10% trailing stop).
Now I'm wondering if I should use a delta of 0.618 or 0.764.
AR,
you're talking of getting Long ITMs, yes?
AAIP
AAIP
Reversal up - buy ITM calls.
Reversal down - buy ITM puts.
AAIP
Time decay becomes less of a factor if you use deeper in the money options. Time decay has kicked my ass when I would use otm options.
from the previous thread.. I think Einhorn has a lot of CSTR.. not sure what happened there.. but it did have a big gap to close.
thanks AR, futures are not happening for me this evening.. today began typically, got mildly interesting, and then ended typically in our JBTFD market.. what is it about me that cannot grasp that mentality?? LOL
CV
You are the equivalent of the bassist in a band. You have great rhythm, keep good time. But, stepping out in front turns most of the crowd off.
I once saw a show with Les Claypool, and about 3 other bassists on stage at once. It was the only show in history I have ever walked out on. Complete nonsense, and I actually liked all of the musicians individually.
Bass is a very under appreciated instrument, but completely critical to any band's success.
I just think you have to make peace with keeping the music going.
You really don't have the personality to step to lead guitar/singer, and I don't think you would want to. You piss too many people off, and I think that you enjoy that. Other than the Ramones, no other band in history, that I can think of, has succeeded in building an audience this way. Maybe Ween.
Thanks for all of the good times and great shows.
Karen
Futures are treading water until JPM reports. I know it's BS but it is what it is.
>> I see the Canadians are busy banning really old Dire Straits songs...
I guess they're worried listeners don't know the context -- that listeners won't realize the refrain is sung "in character" and not meant to insult homosexuals.
It's like the folks who watched "All in the Family" and sided with Archie Bunker.
Or, maybe they realize some of their listeners are gay and don't enjoy hearing "the little faggot" being sung so derisively.
Anyone live in Illinois? You might want to sign up:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/01/campaign-to-recall-illinois-governor.html
As I've said many times before, I favor increasing taxes on the rich but only in conjunction with serious cuts to public worker/contractor salaries/benefits. So, IMO, I agree with Mish that the current Illinois governor's plan is ludicrous.
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