Y'all keep the party going... (CV)
"THE FED" - Is NOT "the Bernank"
(Note: Real ramp - above 100 - occurred post breakdown of Bretton Woods)
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61 comments:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704307404576080322679942138.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories
New Hit to Strapped States
"With the market for municipal bonds tumbling, cities, hospitals, schools and other public borrowers are scrambling to refinance tens of billions of dollars of debt this year, another sign that the once-safe market is under duress.
The muni bond market was hit with the latest wave of bad news Thursday, prompting a selloff that sent the market to its lowest level since the financial crisis. A New Jersey agency was forced to cut the size of a bond issue by about 40% because of mediocre demand, and pay a higher rate than expected. And mutual fund giant Vanguard Group shelved plans for three new muni bond funds, citing market turmoil."
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/01/14/indian-equities-cause-for-concern/
Update: Indian equities – cause for concern?
...Does this mean that the stronger Asian markets will be the harbinger of American stock prices? They are down 8 of 10 trading days...see the article.
cv: How do you like this weekend?
To me, the best bet is Green Bay. That line surprised me a bit--I thought the 'cons might be favored by a little more at home. I like the Pack today....
The "hardest" bet looks like Seahwaks in Chicago. The prevailing wisdom is that Hasselbeck shot his wad last week in a big time/emotional game and the SeaGulls would have nothing left for a tough game in Soldier Field.
I'm staying away from this one even though I'm itching to money on Seattle.
Big day yday in the AT household...
For the first time ever, we allowed our 13 year old daughter to wear a little bit of makeup to school. A lot of these girls been wearing heavy (clownish) makeup for a while now.
We resisted....
She was so excited about this. Definitely carried herself differently on Friday...it was interesting to observe.
The kid is 5'9" and weighs 130+....can only hold them back so much.
Ugh.
re: Football
I think I'm going with the Seagulls + the pins, and the same, with Green Bay..
wouldn't be, too, surprised, if that turned out being an 0-2, but, that the way it feels..
Chicago has some O-Line problems, and Atlanta's will, definitely, have their hands full..
AAIP
AT,
good to hear that the young one is off to good jump~
AT -- I know what you mean about holding them back. My oldest is 9 and in 3rd grade. She is the oldest in her class, having missed the cutoff by 2 weeks. She is the tallest by far (and we like to think one of the smartest :-)). I have been drawing these arbitrary lines in an attempt to keep her age appropriate from the very beginning. I had refused all the High School Musical movies, until two classmates teamed up to have a joint b-day party inviting the entire class to see HSM3. I caved, and we watched 1 and 2 prior the movies. We go to Catholic school in large part because of the uniform. No clothing struggles when everyone wears plaid jumpers! I dread the teen years. Good luck to us both!
Re last night's tax/muni bond discussion -- Karl Denninger (one of my favorite doom and gloom talkers) has had a lot recently about the the tax/deficit issues, more on a federal level, but the same ideas apply. My take away was that the gap could not possibly be filled by increased taxes, the difference between what we take in and what we need is many orders of magnitude greater.
@Jennifer---
I was the product of Catholic schools. Uniforms are "ok" for sure.
I'm not sure why the public schools don't mandate them more often. It would actually decrease the cost to families--no need for the Aeropostale/A&Fitch bullshit!
Would also decrease the societal/youth pressure/tension.
I'm usually not one for suppressing individualistic expression/freedom, etc...
But, school uniforms are a "no-brainer."
My daughter is one of the youngest in her class--she made the cutoff by 2 days.
Parenting is pretty much the most difficult job I've ever had...by a long shot.
In re: Munis...
I guess it makes sense that the "debt tension" battles will first be waged at the local levels. They're on the front lines of the squeeze and do not have the same "levers" to pull as on the State or National level.
Just an FYI, Re: Orange County bankruptcy:
An article in The Journal of Derivatives (Summer 1997, Vol. 4, No. 4: pp. 61-66) indicates that:
"The county emerged from bankruptcy in June 1996, after filing a recovery plan centered on an $800 million bond issue, in which the previous bondholders were fully repaid"
I hope that helps whoever asked about it.
Now who said watch out for Green Bay in the playoffs?
Ra.
I think everyone here liked the Pack. At +600 odds lto win the SB last week, that was the value buy.
The most important thing is getting "hot" .... and the Packers are very hot.
Pack are rooting for the Bears tomorrow....
If the 'Gulls find a way to beat the Bears tomorrow, not sure I'd want to face Seattle in Seattle.
@Matthew,
Thanks for that -- I'm the one who asked. Long-time lurker, found most of the folks here from the TBP days.
Anyway, what your answer makes me wonder about is whether IQI has been overly beat down. Essentially I'm thinking AT's boss might be right for the wrong reason.
- Whammer
Hey Whammer. I remember you.
My bosses rationale is this: "Well, if the don't pay back the bondholders, then they'll never be able to borrow again."
He has way more money than me, so it's hard to argue too much with him.
In re: Orange Co.
If I remember that one right, they went BK due to some idiotic treasure making really huge bets on derivatives. In other words, the OC was fundamentally in decent shapeN but they enetered into some very bad deriv deals.
Some of the situations today seem a bit different....
AT, you've got a good memory. I did subscribe to your mailing list for a while when you were doing that.
You do raise a good point about the OC -- it was pretty much a rogue treasurer and there doesn't seem to be a lot of sense in attempting to extrapolate from that case.
- Whammer
@Andy T
The answer to your questions above...
I liked the PACK too (as I'd mentioned before, they & the Ravens were my preseason calls to go to the Superbowl)... But I didn't put any $$ on either the Ravens or Packers...
I looked at the lineup for the weekend and decided that probably NO MATTER what I did, I was going to end up going 2-2 (which puts you down the vig)... & As you always say, sometimes the best trade is NO TRADE... (That would have happened yesterday, I would have been 1-1 and lost the vig...
I'm actually just kind of enjoying "BEING A FAN" this weekend... (no action)...
Similarly - I'm doing nothing with either game this weekend...
Here's what I'll say...
You're getting VALUE in taking both the Jets & the Seahawks in these instances... So - gun to my head... I'd go that way (but a gun wasn't to my head)...
WAIT! Am I allowed to use that expression anymore?
Let's just assume it's a "water pistol"... No wait! that would be WATERBOARDING! I'm friggin' confused!
---
I always like to conjure up and keep in mind INTANGIBLES... For some kooky reason, the Superbowl often produces "re-matches"...
Out of the pool of teams left (Steelers, Packers, Patriots, Jets, Bears, Seahawks)... The following "re-match" scenarios exist:
Packers - Patriots (Brett Favre's only Superbowl WIN)
Bears - Patriots (SuperBowl Shuffle)
Steelers - Seahawks (Superbowl XL)
Ironically - trying to "visualize" any one of those scenarios, doen't get you any closer to picking todays games...
Interesting tidbits...
Often... teams rise and fall in 'Chinese astrological' cycles...
2010 was the "Year of the Tiger" (but soon we will go in to the "Year of the Rabbit")... It happens on a lunar cycle (he Chinese New Year), so the actual date varies - and is usually somewhere between mid-January to mid February, MEANING, the Superbowl itself may be played in one zodiac or another despite the games that the regular season was played in...
Looking back...
1998 was the last "Year of the Tiger"... What team went to the Superbowl? PACKERS (but so did the Denver Broncos - so where were they?)
1986 - Year of Tiger - Denver Broncos vs. New York Giants
1974 - Steelers - Vikings
Often you see teems "rise" around these occasions... For example, the Falcons ONLY Superbowl was "year of rabbit" (1999)... Maybe next year will be lucky for them...
Rams & Titans ought to Rise... Vikings ought to come back next year... 49ers & Raiders ought to be in the spotlight within 2 years...
If you didn't 'catch' it...
'Steelers' vs. 'Vikings' is like saying Steelers vs. NFC NORTH...
So maybe we see a "Packers - Steelers" Superbowl... The CHALK would say a Packers-Patriots replay at the moment (and I think that's the game that most of America - including myself - would like to see)...
The Pack went into Foxboro decimated (with injuries) and desperate (for a win), and ALMOST beat the Patriots on a Sunday Night game (with Matt Flynn at QB)...
I gotta like the Packers in a re-match...
OFF SUBJECT... but...
SOCIOECONOMICS 101
Movies, pop culture, (& things) portray 'sentiment' at any given time, correct?
It's the SUSPENSION OF DISBELIEF that allows things to go on for longer periods than logic would seem to dictate...
On the agenda (of movies) coming out in 2011...
'The Adjustment Bureau'
Release date: March 4
Genre: Thriller
Rating: PG-13
Premise: It's based on a futuristic story from 1953 by Philip K. Dick that suggested reality is nothing more than a deliberately contrived illusion. Sound familiar?
Movie Trailer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHVU3fKhsjI
'Sucker Punch'
Release date: March 25
Genre: Action/fantasy
Rating: Not yet rated
Premise: This action/fantasy takes place in the mind of a girl who dreams of escaping from a mental facility.
Movie Trailer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fF_6cO3pw6M
'Anonymous'
Release date: Sept. 30
Genre: Political thriller
Rating: Not yet rated
Premise: It's a costume thriller about who actually wrote Shakespeare's plays.
Group went to see Black Swan last night. Frankly I was turned off by it, and wish we'd gone to see Fighter..True Grit, however, was superb.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7082BL20110109?loomia_ow=t0:s0:a49:g43:r1:c0.200603:b40882506:z0
Economists foretell of U.S. decline, China's ascension
"The rise of developing Asia is going to accompany slower world economic growth," he said.
The United States will need to come to terms with the fact that its prevalence in the world is fated to come to an end, Jorgenson said. This will be difficult for many Americans to swallow and the United States should brace for social unrest amid blame over who was responsible for squandering global primacy, he said.
MIT's Simon Johnson put it more bluntly, saying the damage from the financial crisis and its aftermath have dealt U.S. prominence a permanent blow.
"The age of American predominance is over," he told a panel. "The (Chinese) Yuan will be the world's reserve currency within two decades."
Bruce-
We sort of liked Black Swan. Lot of good tension in that one, and the portman/kunis lesbo scene was ok. That said, it was a bit overrated. And, what the hell happened to Barbara Hershey's face? Note to Hollywood: don't go to the same plastic surgeon as Mickey Rourke.
Saw True Grit yday. We're big fans of J Bridges. I'm big on Coen brothers stuff. Needless to say, it was pretty good in my mind.
Chet--
Good stuFf above. I really only liked one game this weekend--the Pack.
That was probably the best playoff QB performance I can remember.
GB v. Pats might be a reality.
To All:
Due to MLK day off*, the Sunday eve. Post will be delayed by one day.
*Except in Arizona where everyone is a racist Tea Party type.
Enuff said :(
Mutt
That's awesome. I really loathe Tom Brady.
@Andy T (7:54)
LOL...
Pay him in EUROS (says giselle)...
Now... there's NO POSSIBLE Superbowl RE-MATCHES...
The closest possible would be the 1974 (Vikings - Steelers) Superbowl...
NFC Central (NOTRH)
AFC Central (NORTH)
Modern Day verion would be Steelers-Packers (but BEARS would also qualify)...
It seems like a GOOD TIME for CV to be "out of the business"... :-)
MM,
I won't worry about it..the 'Gulls had a good run..
losing their TE, so early in the Game, really hurt them, I think..
though, one thing I'm not sure I understand..Why didn't Carroll go for 2, after that last TD?
that, converted, would have have been awesome..
AAIP
btw,
who has early picks on those Conference Championship Games?
any early Line action being quoted?
ibid.
I haven't seen any early line, but the best thing to do is "guess" where they should be. If the actual line comes in too far off, go "in the direction" that it deviates towards.
I'm guessing the Chi-Pack line will be an EVEN line. If the Packers come out favored, put A Lot of money on GB.
I'm guessing Steelers will be favored by 6pts. If they come out favored closer to 10pts, then pound the Steelers. I sort of want to take the Jets in this one no matter the line, though.
yes, it's interesting..
GB has been 'looking good', though, I like Lovie Smith, a lot, too..
something tells me that NYC-Chicago SuperBowl tilt would be a good one, in many regards..
AAIP
Just checked an early line. Packers and Steelers are both favored by 3pts.
Both those lines surprise me a bit--the Steelers line is probably the most surprising.
Bet the house* on GB and the Jets.
*Ummmm, don't actually be the entire house.
Steelers by 6, is a good guess..
now, thinking about it, if it is over 7, I'd think it'd need to be Faded..
GB, as the #6, favored in Chi, would be eye-opener..
ibid.
wow, that is surprising..
both, that thin on the Steelers, at Home, and, that many, on GB, away..
ibid.
01/23 3:00 PM
303 N.Y. Jets
304 Pittsburgh
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME CBS
38½
-3.5 -115 38u-110
-3 -120 39u-110
-3.5 -110 38½
-3.5 -110 39u-110
-3 -125 39u-110
-3.5 -110 38½
-3.5 -110 38½u-110
-3 -120 38½u-110
-3.5 -110
01/23 6:30 PM
305 Green Bay
306 Chicago
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME FOX
-3.0EVEN
42½ -3-120
43½u-110 -3.5+100
43½u-110 -3.5+100
44 -3-120
44u-110 -3-120
43½u-110 -3-120
43½ -3-125
44u-110 -3-120
43½u-110
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/
Do you guys bet through a bookie or online? It is annoying as hell to fund an online account these days.
The line automatically slide 3 points to the home team...
So it is basically saying Jets-Steelers are PICKEM on a neutral field...
Packers would be favored by 6 on a neutral field...
Vegas is clearly trying to take advantage of the Packer "momentum" (and get early money going their way)...
My guess is that the line will drop 1 or 2 points by gametime...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Why-supermarket-stocks-are-apf-904020854.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
Why supermarket stocks are getting squeezed
Forty million Americans now rely on foods stamps, up 50 percent from four years ago, and the average price of gas now costs 12 percent more than it did at this time last year. That's one reason why middle and lower income consumers are increasingly going to supercenters that offer less selection but cheaper prices than traditional grocery stores. Grocery sales at stores like Walmart, Target, and Costco grew at a rate of 10 percent a year over the past five years, according to Packaged Facts, a market research firm. Sales at traditional grocery stores are growing closer to 4 percent.
For the first time last year Wal-Mart Stores Inc. generated more than half of its U.S. sales from groceries. The company can offer cheaper produce than a supermarket because it can use its enormous purchasing power to buy complete crops of apples in Washington and sell them in the U.S, Japan and South America, says Bernard Sosnick, a retail analyst at Gilford Securities.
Not every grocer is feeling a pinch from higher commodity costs. Whole Foods Market, which caters to shoppers who don't mind paying extra for organic lettuce, isn't as sensitive to the 2 to 3 percent bump in food prices this year predicted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Whole Foods' stock is up 88 percent in the past 12 months.
"If you are an upscale operator your ability to pass on inflation is much greater, but the middle-income stores are up against tough competition," says Karen Short, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets who covers grocery stores. "The high-end consumer is feeling better, but the middle- and lower-income levels are feeling much worse."
...Morning! Rain should get rid of the snow today. Full day at the mine. I see that Walgreen and every other retailer are increasing food space, fresh food, not for profits but to bring in customers. Interesting.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/17/business/17grocery.html?_r=1&ref=business
Big Retailers Fill More Aisles With Groceries
looking outside the 'Border'...
"If all the food in the world were shared out evenly, there would be enough to go around. That has been true for centuries now - if food was scarce, the problem was that it wasn't in the right place.
But there was no global shortage. However, that will not be true much longer.
The food riots began in Algeria more than a week ago, and they are going to spread. During the last global food shortage, in 2008, there was serious rioting in Mexico, Indonesia and Egypt. We may expect to see that again, only more widespread.
Most people in these countries live in a cash economy and a large proportion live in cities. They buy their food, they don't grow it. That makes them vulnerable, because they have to eat almost as much as people in rich countries do but their incomes are much lower.
The poor, urban multitudes in these countries (including China and India) spend up to half of their entire income on food, compared with only about 10 per cent in rich countries.
When food prices soar, these people quickly find that they simply lack the money to go on feeding themselves and their children properly - and food prices now are at an all-time high.
"We are entering a danger territory," said Abdolreza Abbassian, chief economist at the Food and Agriculture Organisation. The price of a basket of cereals, oils, dairy, meat and sugar that reflects global consumption patterns has risen steadily for six months, and has just broken through the previous record, set during the last food panic in June 2008.
"There is still room for prices to go up much higher," Abbassian said, "if, for example, the dry conditions in Argentina become a drought, and if we start having problems with winter kill in the Northern Hemisphere for the wheat crops."..."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/food/news/article.cfm?c_id=206&objectid=10699716
AAIP
AAIP:
I agree that there is real danger that food prices increase substantially again this year. In fact, it is my belief that they will. The CPI was up 6% when food and energy is taken into account, and I don't look at the core number, I look at the cost of living. Yes, I think food goes up significantly this year. I don't see how it could not.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/flaherty-details-new-mortgage-rules/article1872599/
Flaherty details new mortgage rules
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced Monday that new federal rules will reduce the maximum amortization period to 30 years from 35 years for government-backed insured mortgages with loan-to-value ratios of more than 80 per cent.
Secondly, Ottawa will lower the maximum amount Canadians can borrow in refinancing their mortgages to 85 per cent from 90 per cent of the value of their homes.
Thirdly, Ottawa will withdraw government insurance backing on lines of credit secured by homes.
I find the NFC Championship more compelling than any match up in the super bowl
Cutler may not be the most personable of players (but at last he doesn't do his interviews in a helmet a la vintage Ricky Williams)- however, he played a great game yesterday w/ 2 rushing touch downs and 2 passing touchdowns
being a type one diabetic possibly changes his demeanor a bit, facing the everyday struggles associated w/ disease may make his outlook different than other players (and as aside, is it a requirement to be jolly just because you were born in Santa Clause Indiana?)
Rogers and Cutler both appear to be at the top of their game at the moment. Should be a good one in Chicago, with play makers Clay Matthews, Peppers and Urlacher in the mix to possibly determine the outcome of the game
hmmmm . . . .
"Apple CEO Steve Jobs takes medical leave"
I agree with the NFC comments. I thought it fascinating to see the Patriots outplayed last night. I have to like Ryan. He's just fun to watch, and apparently smarter than most gave him credit for up to this point.
Denninger's post re Steve Jobs is titled:
"Warm up the Hearse"
bad taste (but still funny?)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-17/china-stocks-plunge-most-in-two-months-on-bank-reserve-increase.html
Liver transplants are hard to predict as to life expectancy. He's probably in a very tough spot.
Nope just bad taste.
For AT:
http://dealbreaker.com/2011/01/john-arnolds-centaurus-suffers-first-ever-yearly-loss/
China was down 3.8% last night, and now we are seeing spooz and queuez down as well. Equities are way over due for a takedown and here it is. We are short EEM and IWM here. Better to be lucky than good.... they will use Steve Jobs as "the excuse" but it may have been coming anyway.
Surprises keep coming in the NFL and not only Ryan and the Jets amazing secondary came up big, but LT, Mark Sanchez and Santonio Holmes have all shown a lot of people that they are a lot better than most people thought.
Centaurus.
Head of a man, body of a bull....
The usual stuff comes out of the rear end.
Wife of Tunisian dictator leaves country, imitates Olivia Newton-John*:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12209296
* Let's get PHYSICAL...(gold bars)
Weighing in on munis, we believe that the fears of WIDESPREAD DEFAULT have probably been exaggerated (although some will occur) and that there will be money to be made by buying the broad muni ETFs. However, we have no wish to be the first mouse here. There will be time to pick up this knife. We sense that the panic is not yet over.
AFIA2BNL
I saw that SSEC was down 3.03% (in one day). Add in Steve Jobs taking a medical LOA and a post MLK day 2009 is in the works.
Yes, we have been following IQI. The thought occurs that someone who holds munis might have to start liquidating something else, even if they are deciding to DOUBLE DOWN. IQI went to 8 in the 2008 panic which was a liquidation event, not related to muni credit quality. Right now it has tumbled from 14 to 11, so it has room to fall further.
Over a year, you could imagine one might make the dividend of the ETF (9% or so) and maybe 10-20% appreciation if IQI comes back, as lower interest rates across the board reduce the expense of new issues and hold the muni market together (hint: this is what we think will happen). So we think this is a good risk/reward setting up.
"SAN FRANCISCO/LONDON (Reuters) – Apple Inc Chief Executive Steve Jobs is taking medical leave for the third time since 2004, sending its shares tumbling more than 8 percent as the surprise revived concerns over the long-term future of the iPhone- and iPad-maker.
The company disclosed the news early on a U.S. holiday when U.S. markets were closed and did not specify why or for how long its visionary leader would be absent. Jobs' latest leave comes nearly two years to the date after he took a six-month break to undergo a liver transplant.
"At my request, the board of directors has granted me a medical leave of absence so I can focus on my health," Jobs, 55, wrote in an email to staff published on a regulatory newswire. "I love Apple so much and hope to be back as soon as I can."
Unlike the previous announcement, Apple did not say when Jobs would return, driving up the worst fears about Jobs' medical condition. An Apple spokesman declined to comment further.
"This time around you have to question his ability to bounce back," said Hudson Square Research analyst Daniel Ernst.
Jobs, a survivor of pancreatic cancer, said Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook would take responsibility for day-to-day operations once again, but he would remain as CEO and be involved in major strategic decisions.
Apple shares closed 6.2 percent lower in Frankfurt. Nasdaq futures fell 1.29 percent.
In recent days, Apples shares reached new all-time highs after announcing its iPhone would be available to customers of Verizon Wireless, the largest U.S. mobile operator...."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110117/bs_nm/us_apple
Bruce,
re:
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Food+Prices
yes, no doubt, upward pressure on 'Food Prices' is in the Cards..
~~
A fixed income analyst to be named later,
the 'Muni-'"Thesis" is becoming compelling..
much 'sturm and drang' in the "Headlines", at the minimum..
any idea when the 'Bat Light' is illuminated?
AAIP
@ben22. Thanks for that link. responded on the new thread just posted.
AAIP
Let's watch the charts, Mark. It's not the fundamentals, here, in munis - it's how much panic before they are backstopped..
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