Morning Audibles


Oh... But before you BUY THE DIP... Make sure you TOSS THE CHALK...


50-1 at Bodog... LeBron tosses the chalk in Cleveland tonight... Place your bets! And with your winnings... "Buy the fucking dip!"

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251 comments:

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Anonymous said...

MackieFear,

re: short Ag..

see:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=PB

I'd like to see who was Short 'Bellies' in August..(?)

think those 'wounds' have healed yet?

AAIP

karen said...

ben.. do look at the gld:uup chart.. and don't say i didn't warn you all.

McFearless said...

lol, no, they have not

the silver trades at least had stops, like AT said yesterday, sometimes your best trade is getting stopped out

I'd have lost a bundle otherwise

those were bad trades

lesson learned, though I wish there was not tuition involved...but there always is.

McFearless said...

Karen,

yeah, was just about to check that out

McFearless said...

oh wow, you are right, textbook H&S almost, even has the right volume on BOTH shoulders

nice eye karen

Leftback said...

LB thinks that if we see a massive squeeze into the close then tomorrow will be a SELL THE NEWS. OTOH, if we bleed down tonight, then they will....

BUY THE EFFING DIP....

Leftback said...

sometimes your best trade is getting stopped out

Uh-huh... and there is a charge for tuition.

Leftback said...

The 5 year at 1.67%, GDP at 2.50%. Those are supposed to be tight, so one of these is wrong.

Yield on the ten year, 3.00%, yield on SPX is 1.80%. That yield ratio is one that is associated with rapid economic growth. Normally...

These are all signs of ZIRP/QE and markets driven by liquidity.

Leftback said...

LB is scaring himself bearish !

karen said...

Nouriel

Spain is too big to fail but also too big to be saved or too big to be bailed out. Official funds aren't currently enough to bailout Spain

McFearless said...

LB,

maybe you know the answer

in Japan after they started to QE, did that same divergence in JGB's and GDP show up and then remain?

Nenner commented yesterday he's been overlapping Japanese CPI from 89 with ours, perhaps not the greatest excersize but it is interesting when viewed.

karen said...

LB, Transports are so so so bullish tho.. don't be afraid.. dip in, the water is warm.

karen said...

love this! http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/what-would-steve-do/

karen said...

Market Trends on Job Report Fridays
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 2, 2010 AT 02:17PM
After four straight reports where the S&P 500 declined on the day of a Friday employment report, bulls are now hoping the index can make it four straight days of gains following the release of the monthly employment report. In the table below and the charts on pages 4-6, we highlight the performance of the S&P 500 and each sector on employment report Friday’s since March 2009. As shown, equities typically react...

Continue reading... (Must be a Bespoke Premium member to view.)

Bruce in Tennessee said...

"An Irish bank failure would plunge much of the rest of the euro region into crisis, said Valdimar Armann, an economist at Reykjavik-based asset management company GAMMA. “The banks are too entangled in the European web of banks,” he said.

European banks had $509 billion in claims against Ireland at the end of June, Bank for International Settlements data show. Euro-region governments will assess how far investors should bear potential write-offs on a case-by-case basis starting in 2013, finance ministers said on Nov. 28.

Kaupthing, Landsbanki Islands hf and Glitnir Bank hf failed two years ago after they were unable to secure short-term funding. Kaupthing’s so-called winding-up committee said Nov. 26 that it’s dealing with 28,167 claims filed by creditors across 119 countries totaling $63 billion."

...and read the patient's prognosis..one has disease as far as the eye can see...one was ill, but is obviously going to get well.

...Imagaine that.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40474974

"Despite the stock market’s relatively robust performance in 2010, this has been a bad year for active mangers—in fact, as bad as it’s ever been.

Just one in four beat their benchmarks for the year, according to date from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which said this is the “toughest year on record” for active management.

At the same time, the growth guys have mopped up the value guys, no matter what the world’s most famous value investor, Warren Buffett, says."

McFearless said...

Bruce,

Haven't you heard, buy and hold bro

Bogle was just on CNBC the other day

pay attention, they shun sunspots too :-)

McFearless said...

growth and value

such odd terms anymore

NFLX, ok, growth stock

but AAPL

with $45/share in cash....a value play?

p/e ratio took on a whole new meaning in Japan the last 20 years, just sayin....

Leftback said...

A lot of those active managers are MOMO guys.
The trades of the year were simple:

a. SELLING equities early and buying Treasuries.
b. BUYING Treasuries and sitting until August.
c. SELLING Treasuries for high yield and dividend stocks.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ben,

I don't envy you your job. In this manipulated environment, it must be hard to see the tea leaves through the mud.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Lefty,

I am not sure you work, anyway..

Anonymous said...

gotta hop, I'll try to catch up later~

AAIP

karen said...

LB.. that's TA !! (Tepper Analysis, aka, hindsight)

AmenRa said...

I leave and come back and the market has gone nowhere for three hours. Figures.

McFearless said...

If it were easy Bruce, everyone would do it, I like the pressure, it's healthy for me. Being held accountable for things isn't all bad, sometimes it's good to have to face the music.

now your job, I'd be the worst at that, no doubt in my mind

we all have our things I guess

karen said...

Alea, Bernanke to Appear on ‘60 Minutes’ http://goo.gl/kTYlo

karen said...

If you would like to redistribute this article please respect FT.com's ts&cs and copyright policy which allow you to: share links; copy content for personal use; & redistribute limited FT content. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/62a1ffd2-fe49-11df-abac-00144feab49a.html#ixzz16zPQKszK

Fed reveals it lent billions to hedge funds during crisis

By Sam Jones, Hedge Fund Correspondent
Published: December 2 2010 20:14 | Last updated: December 2 2010 20:14
The US Federal Reserve lent billions of dollars to hedge funds as part of its emergency liquidity programme during the financial crisis, data released by the central bank show.

Against growing regulatory pressures, a favourite industry rejoinder has until now been the widely held belief that hedge funds avoided taking taxpayer money and had not, unlike many banks, had to be bailed out.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/62a1ffd2-fe49-11df-abac-00144feab49a.html

McFearless said...

karen,

it is, but leftback at least made those trades

nice dude.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

If Lefty came in Ben, he'd get a paper sack over his head stapled to his shoulders...

(Some problems are insoluble)

McFearless said...

"Alea, Bernanke to Appear on ‘60 Minutes’"

wonder if he brings that Jos A. Banks card with him

with that, he's all set

karen said...

quote of the day: “To blame speculators (because) a crisis has emerged is like blaming gravity for a plane crash.”

http://www.forexlive.com/151106/all/the-line-of-the-day

karen said...

oops.. guess i won't be copy and pasting FT articles anymore..

karen said...

BreakingNews

U.S. House votes to extend Bush tax cuts for middle class; measure likely to die in Senate due to GOP opposition

karen said...

http://www.forexlive.com/151109/all/how-will-payrolls-play

i think he's covered all the bases... : )

Jennifer said...

Bernanke was on 60 min back at the end of Feb, beginning of March of '09. Maybe his being on now marks the end of the rally. I'd like that for Christmas.

AmenRa said...

Karen

Paste the article into a text document first. ;-)

karen said...

Alea_

Spain bank restructuring fund to issue more debt http://goo.gl/nYf8t

Leftback said...

The market is still a massive game of chicken.
That's my analysis, Karen.

LB did make those trades in 2010 and was very upfront about it.

2011 is going to very tricky indeed.

karen said...

http://dailybail.com/home/chris-whalen-with-dylan-ratigan-which-banks-how-much-surpris.html

Anonymous said...

LOL

KKK Snowman

karen said...

nassim taleb: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1678196077&play=1

I-Man said...

Alright, I swore off this forecastin shit... but I just got irie, and feel like doing a little forecastin...

ES:

Near resistance: 1223
Should be breached and HELD next week if the uptrend continues, which it should, for the short term.

I've been striving for no bias. My timing work pointed to a low for ES/YM on 11/23, which I shared with Miss K back in Oct. Although it was not a price low, it was the end, of something inna the I mind.

Likely that something was some breed of correction off some breed of high. (With the premise in mind that there are often distinct price and psychological pivots.) I would not disregard any ganns or downtrend lines, EWave counts off the last high tho, we will get back to those at a later date.

I have been assuming that the price low from Nov 16th will hold, ES 1171, and my heads up is the Nov 23 close of 1177 on ES.

My Gann support work off the April high lined up with the low of 11/16, and we have held that line, and had a nice surge off of it.

Looking further out, the next resistance level for ES is 1250, timeline, approx second week of January.

Not looking for any meaningful price correction before that time. Buying the fucking dips, I would be, were I doing any swing trading.

The Gann angle off the Feb lows that we have recently reclaimed after the Nov correction is an indication the market wants to continue higher... for whatever reason.

The DXY charts look constructive also, which is intriguing. MA has mentioned before that the USD and SPX/DJIA could move up together, along with gold/silver, in some sort of perverse comeuppance for Bernanke-I.

I dont really give a shit about the reasons anymore. Just want to chill out in the woods along a riverbank chasing steelhead and ignore it all. I'm done sweating all the troubles of the world, and being awestruck by its babylonian decay.

Ive realized that as a day trader, anyway, that all that shit above about price and forecasting, THE WHY'S, etc. have little to do with making money. I have to forget about all of that between 7 and 1 PST, and just focus on what I see on the 30/15/5/1 min charts.

That WaPo article on the Fed data had me so angry earlier today I almost shut down my computer tho!

Fucking Nancy Capitalist Crony BS!!! HOG??? WTF? Korean Dev Bank??? WTF?

Dont even get the I started on GE and their petulance. Rant concluded.

One Love All. Itinual.



Later,
I

karen said...

thank you, I-man! certainly the dollar and the spx could and should move up together in a strong or growing economy..

Leftback said...

Moving together would be enormously pleasurable, Karen...

Bye for now, folks.

I-Man said...

You two finally moving IN together, LB?

I-Man said...

;)

Sorry K, that was bad...
Just couldnt resist playing along with ye old LB/karen banter.

Leftback said...

The Bond Report 12.2.10

All the pain was before the bond ETFs traded, but the selling of Treasuries continued in today's session. This must have been a really bad day for picking up pennies in front of the steamroller....

Corpies: LQD -0.22%; AGG -0.20%; JNK 0%; HYG 0.06%
Govies: TLT -0.27%; IEI -0.23%; TIP -0.04%
Hedgies: TBT 0.69%

We remain long HYG and SPY, with some TBT, and a pinch of TIP. It is very likely that we wlll move to a more conservative position over the next 3-5 trading days. Say what you will about LB but we have nailed the fundamental turns in the bond market fairly well in 2010....

ben22 said...

sorry folks but this isn't in the DATA:

Barry Ritholtz Says:
December 2nd, 2010 at 6:21 am

In 2010, small investors had little cash because they were all in to US Treasuries — the Risk Off, Fear trade.



Nope, here's some stats, from earlier in the year, the new data shows what small investors are starting to do now, there isn't just one type of bond in the bond market....:

Reports show that taxable corporate bond funds took in 26 billion in August and muni bond funds $5 billion, but long term government bond funds drew 191 million.

From Bloomberg:

Junk bond sales have reached $172.2 billion in 2010, exceeding the annual record set in 2009 with more than three months left in the year (9/17)

Issuers have sold 4.4 billion in bonds tied to subprime auto loans, more than double the amount arranged in 2009...AmeriCredit Corp, the lender to car buyers that's being purchased by GM just sold $850 million of bonds tied to auto loans in its largest sale in three years......

Securities linked to loans to consumers with credit considered subprime account for 20% of asset-backed auto debt issuance this year, double the share in 2008 and 2009 according to Deutsche Bank (9/16)

anyone just stating that "retail investors are 'in bonds' is missing The Big Picture"

Of course, who cares about making accurate, factual statements, if all you are trying to do is make money?


Also, as I got those stats out of 9/17 EWT, I saw this again:

"In late Feb. 2009, Buffett, in the annual report of his Berkshire Hathaway Corp., predicted, "We're certain that the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 - and, for that matter, probably well beyond." The media reported this conviction on March 3, three days before bottom tick in the stock market, aka, The Leftback Bottom. (that part isn't in the EWT letter)....Now, thanks to the optimism behind the rally, leaders see the outlook as rosy."

ben22 said...

I also think this guy "dead hobo" is a total clown.....a nice clown though...very amusing, iow.

this was the guy that kept asking me in 2009 when i was super bullish

what if you are wrong, what will your customers say, he was more nervous about it than me the entire late spring and summer, going on and on about how great it was that he was staying out.

the market is rigged, why do you think it can go higher

this isn't a "normal" market

blah blah blah blah blah

now he magically "gets it"

sold to you

ben22 said...

and and btw, the Neely 9/22 statement is ringing even louder in my ears today, look at this rubbish, Im' dying over here right now:

"History has since proved it is a reversal and we can look forward to a couple of years of increasing job growth, at least. Fundamental economics says this is a predictor of economic growth, which means it is a predictor of market growth."

ben22 said...

and so I'm not accused of stretching reality above:

first this
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/job-openings-vs-unemployed/#comment-179032

and then this:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/job-openings-vs-unemployed/#comment-179036

See now folks.....the "fundamentals" changed

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/job-openings-vs-unemployed/#comment-179049

lmfao

it was fun being a big bull last year

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