Weekend Edition - NCAA & NFL Picks

CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals (all "ATS" [against the spread - wager totals include the vig lost])

2010 NCAA Picks (aggregate): 57-40-2
2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +2
NCAA 2010 Wager Total: (-$110)* (do as I "say" not as I do - the REDUX)


2010 NFL Picks (aggregate): 93-76-5
2010 NFL (unit picks differential): +31
NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+2,950)

Gameday/week writeup...

We're coming to the end of the line before we get to these games are ridiculous because there should be a playoff system, the NCAA are a bunch of greedy bastards, the festive college bowl season...

Think it's hard predicting college football games? (look at my WAGER TOTAL numbers in NFL vs. NCAA - even though the aggregate picks are fairly evened out)... What's the takeaway? Watch, but don't BET on college football... Anyway, that whole thing is about to gett even more difficult because during bowl season, you get to try and figure out a bunch of "out of conference" match-ups with degenerate kids who have spent the last month cheating on, studying hard for final exams instead of doing what they're paid to do, told to do on the gridiron... Think coach Saban & coach Kelly are tough guys? Try professor Obama vonDunham in "The Politics of International Basket Weaving"... Now THAT's a tough final!

Anyway, once again, here's CV's system (which hardly applies this week - except for noted exceptions)... Many of the games this weekend are CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS (so they're being played at neutral sites)... You have to factor that into the lines...


- Take live home dogs (regardless of what you think)
- Start fading "BCS #1" ranked teams as soon as the rankings come out
- Take Boise State & TCU regardless
- "Go the other way" (in which CV handicaps the Penn State game)
- I had Virginia Tech working for awhile as well, but that's more or less run its course now that they're in the ACC Championship game

Notes to that (this week)... The "live home dogs" is just about ended... It worked yet again this week with Fresno State... I also had Arizona State (which I gave you mid week), but the rule didn't apply there, as they were VISITING team... I took ASU for other reasons... On Saturday, the "live home dog" rule will apply to Louisiana Tech, Oregon State & Washington State... Note: It will NOT apply to South Carolina or Nebraska (because both are conference championships being played at neutral sites)... The system usually works better when the game is being played under the lights/mid-week, but I'll go along with the calls this Saturday anyway... If I had to peel one of those games out, it might be Washington State (because the Washington Huskies are still eligible for a coveted spot in a muffler or weed eater bowl at some town that only has bus service in & out)... ESPN doesn't send Erin Andrews to those towns (because the locals might get too drunk and crash their pickups)...

The "FADE BCS #1" ranked teams might apply EXTRA in this case... Because 13 times, in the past 12 season, believe it or not, the #1 ranked team LOST in the final week of play... IT'S TRUE!... However, that was always when either an SEC or Big 10 school was waiting in the catbird seat to take over either the #2 or #1 spot... With TCU perched at number #3... I expect the refs of the Oregon game, and the Auburn game to be instructed to be handy with the yellow flags (in case a good play is made by either OSU or USC)

... Or, you'll see a bunch of "whoops" missed extra points...

(Footnote: the schools that Oregon & Auburn have to get through today to make it to the BCS National Championship game, are nicknamed the "Cocks" and the "Beavers")... I won't editorialize on that one...

TCU, & Penn State are idle... Boise State is playing, but they get deleted from consideration this week according to another rule... Don't take teams laying huge point spreads the week following an emotional loss...

So... Finally... The Picks... (pick in BOLD CAPS)

ARIZONA STATE (+4) at Arizona - (1 unit) Thursday Night
Arizona State 30 - Arizona 29 - (+$100) - Correct
Illinois at FRESNO STATE (+5) - (1 unit) Friday Night
Fresno State 25 - Illinois 23 - (+$100) - Correct
Nevada at LOUISIANA TECH (+8.5) - (1 unit)
Nevada 35 - LT 17 - (-$110) - Incorrect
Washington at WASHINGTON STATE (+5.5) - (1 unit)
Washington 35 - Washington State 28 - ($110) - Incorrect
Oregon at OREGON STATE (+17) - (1 unit)
Oregon 37 - Oregon State 20 - ($0) - Push
unlv at HAWAII (-34.5) - (1 unit)
Hawaii 59 - Unlv 21 - (+$100) - Correct
CONNECTICUT (+2) at South Florida - (1 unit)
Connecticut 19 - USF 16 - (+$100) - Correct

Additional games of note (no "unit" plays) - [results] Green = correct/Red = incorrect: CV would favor: West Virginia, Auburn, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, UCF


Week 14 NCAA Picks (ATS): 8 - 2 - 2
Week 14 unit pick differential: +1
Week 14 wager total: +($180)

Week 13 NFL picks and game write-ups posted before Sunday kickoff...


 Houston Texans at Philadelphia Dog Killers
Line: Dog Killers by 9.5

CV took the Dog Killers for 3 units
Philadelphia 34 - Houston 24 - (+$300) - Correct


I realize that many of you rely on my picks each week to put food on the table and feed your families... But this week I'm going to do something a little different... I'm not putting any units on any of the EARLY GAMES (tho I will make a "pick" simply to fill out the card and let you know whhich direction I'd be leaning...

Why do this? (you say)... Several reasons... Number one, I've had a pretty decent week (hitting ALL my mid-week picks for multiple units), plus doing well on Saturday NCAA... So this is the stock market version of "booking profits"... I don't want to turn a winning week into a losing one...

Secondly, the public did very well versus Vegas yesterday as all the supported teams like Oregon, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Boise State, Nevada, & Auburn covered... The problem is, you have a whole slate of NFL games set up "lopsided" as well... I'm in this handicapping league (with about 90 other guys), we play for a pretty big prize... Anyway, come Saturday, each players "picks" are visible to all... I'm telling you... In the NFL, in most of the early games, EVERYONE is on one side or another, hardly any "mixture"... It's the equivalent of POMO or that other crap that goes on... Just buy the fucking dip has arrived this week in football wagering... Everyon just knows the Bears are going to cover against the Lions... And the Saints, Jags, Rams, Falcons, Packers, Colts, & Steelers are all EASY MONEY too...

So when I see something like that, I just stay away... If it's all that easy (and all these teams cover), Vegas sports will be shut down by Christmas... I'm pretty sure that will not happen, but with so many EASY MONEY games, it has created a lot of "noise", so it's hard to figure which one is the TRAP... One quick way to find out is to look at the ref crews... Carl Cheffers is doing the KC-Denver game (but the problem is, that's one of the games that is 52%-48%)... Scott Green is another trickster (but his crew is doing the New England - NY Jets game Monday Night)...

What I'm going to do here (because I'm feeling very strongly that a lot of these lines are going to come right down to the number)... Is offer a series of exotic bets (teasers)... In a 2 team teaser you can shift the line 6 points, in a 3 team teaser, you get to shift it 10 points)... It's usually a sucker bet, but this week it may be the best way to have a little action (on several outcomes), while locking in your profits and not giving much back if you lose...

Here are CV's "teaser" plays: (1 unit apiece)

Saints [change line from (-6.5) to (-0.5)] + Panthers [change line from (+5.5) to (+11.5)]

Saints [change line from (-6.5) to (+3.5)] + Panthers [change line from (+5.5) to (+15.5)] + Steelers [change line from (+3) to (+13)]

MONEY LINE PARLAY (Teams only have to "win" straight up)
Chiefs (-400); Lions (+190); Packers (-450); Falcons (-145); Chargers (-650); Colts (-240); Saints (-280)
Parlay Payout (on one unit) = $1560
wager: 0.5 units

MONEY LINE PARLAY (Teams only have to "win" straight up)

Chiefs (-400); Patriots (+190); Packers (-450); Falcons (-145); Chargers (-650); Colts (-240); Saints (-280)
Parlay Payout (on one unit) = $759
wager: 0.5 units


 Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings (1:00 EST)
Line: Vikings by 5.5
CV would "lean" to the Vikings

 Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (1:00 EST)
Line: Dolphins by 5
CV would "lean" to the Dolphins

 Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks (1:00 EST)
Line: Flaming Thumbtacks by 3
CV would lean to the Jaguars

 Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EST)
Line: Chiefs by 8.5
CV would lean to the Broncos

 Washington Redskins at New York Fumble Giants (1:00 EST)
Line: Fumble Giants by 7
CV would lean to the Redskins

 Chicago Bears at Drew Stanton Lions (1:00 EST)
Line: Bears by 4.5
CV would lean to the Lions

 San Francisco 49ers at 1921 Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST)
Line: Acme Packers by 9.5
CV would lean to the 49ers

(Pack going with the 1921 attire in this game)

(and you WONDER why Rex Grossman has had such a tough career in the NFL)

Rumor has it that if the NFL wants to move back to Los Angeles, West Hollywood is bidding for the stadium rights and would like Green Bay to consider a move...

Maybe when this guy becomes NFL commish...

 New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST)
Line: Saints by 6.5
CV would lean to the Saints


 Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:15 EST)
Line: Falcons by 3
CV would lean to the Falcons

(Bucs going with the "creamsicles" this weekend)

 Oakland at San Diego (4:05 EST)
Line: Chargers by 13
CV would lean to the Chargers

(Chargers going with the powder blue here)

 Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (4:15 EST)
Line: Seahawks by 5.5
CV would lean to the Panthers

 Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (4:15 EST)
Line: Colts by 5.5
CV would lean to the Cowboys

 St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (4:15 EST)
Line: Rams by 3.5
CV would lean to the Cardinals


 Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (8:25 EST)
Line: Ravens by 3
CV would lean to the Steelers


 J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets at New England Patriots (8:35 EST)
Line: Patriots by 3.5
CV is leaning to the Patriots


cv said...

OK... So now... Obama has my vote in 2012!

President Obama issues nine presidential pardons

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/view.bg?articleid=1300708OK... So now CV is an Obama Supporter for 2012...

"No one well-known was on the list, and some of the crimes dated back decades or had drawn little more than a slap on the wrist in the first place — such as the Pennsylvania man sentenced in 1963 to probation and a $20 fine for mutilating coins. The mutilation of coins occurred when a young Marine made dimes out of pennies, cutting the lip off, to use the coins in vending machines.

In an interview Friday, Ronald Lee Foster of Beaver Falls, Pa., said he got into trouble nearly a half-century ago when as a young Marine he whittled coins to use in vending machines.

"Well, we were only making only $82 a month," he said. "We were using them in the washing machines, the dryers, the cigarette machines and the pop machines on the base in our barracks."


Free that man (says CV)! Any President to issue him a pardon, deserves my vote! :-)

cv said...

@Andy T

I guess your "girls" didn't read this article before they went tree shopping...


Andy T said...


Like the LaTech pick a lot. Might have to put a few units on that one. Seems like a classic 'let down' game for the Wolpack following last weekend's drama. Also, Louisiana teams can be tough at home against bigger names. 61.8% of the players on LaTech have a family member betting big on the game....some extra motivation.

Andy T said...

XMas trees are a scam....

I'm rooting for 'Cocks and Beavers today....but, I have a feeling the Favored teams will have no problems today.

Anonymous said...

Fiat and Chrysler, which is joining the natural-gas vehicles association in Washington, are currently studying whether to sell natural-gas vehicles in the U.S., the two carmakers said. Fiat will re-enter the U.S. next year, and targets sales of 50,000 of the 500 compact in the market.
“We’re always looking at alternative propulsion systems and how to reduce our dependency on foreign oil, so this is one thing we are looking at,” Chrysler spokesman Vince Muniga said.
GM and Toyota are focusing on hybrid electric vehicles as their alternative to conventional gasoline engines. Detroit- based GM started production of the $41,000 gasoline-electric Chevrolet Volt Nov. 30 and forecasts sales of 10,000 of the cars next year and 45,000 in 2012.
Refueling Stations
Toyota is the maker of the world’s first mass-produced hybrid car, the Prius, which went on sale more than a decade ago. Chrysler is also developing an electric version of the Fiat 500 to begin selling in the U.S. in 2012 for city driving.
While recharging stations for electric-car batteries present an infrastructure challenge, locations for refueling natural gas vehicles are also limited. There are 1,300 stations in the U.S. for the 110,000 vehicles using natural gas, the International Association for Natural Gas Vehicles said. That compares with 160,000 gasoline stations, the Petroleum Marketers Association of America said.
The lack of methane fueling stations in the U.S. has limited these vehicles primarily to government and corporate fleets that can return to a central location to refill.
“That is where the industry is primarily putting its emphasis right now,” said Richard Kolodziej, president of Natural Gas Vehicles for America. Natural gas is about $1 less on average than a gallon of gasoline, he said.
Targeting Trucks
Marchionne, who plans to raise his Chrysler stake to 35 percent by the end of 2011 from 20 percent, last year separated the Ram and Dodge brands to create a standalone truck unit. His five-year plan for Chrysler includes bringing large- and small- commercial vans to the U.S. in 2012 under the Ram brand based on Fiat’s trucks platforms.
“That gives them the freedom to introduce Iveco products into the Chrysler lineup,” said Phil Gott , an IHS Automotive analyst in Lexington, Massachusetts. “The target customer would be the heavy duty fleets, they could cut their fuel costs in about half,” he said of natural gas engines.
The U.S. currently ranks 14th in the world in sales of natural gas vehicles, while Italy is sixth, according to the International Association for Natural Gas Vehicles. Pakistan ranks No. 1 with 2.3 million vehicles and 3,068 fueling stations. Marchionne hopes to boost the U.S. figure.
“Fiat’s technological leadership in compressed natural gas in Europe is a key asset for the U.S. natural gas-vehicle market,” the CEO said this week.
To contact the reporters on this story: Tommaso Ebhardt in Milan at tebhardt@bloomberg.net ; Tim Higgins in Southfield, Michigan at thiggins21@bloomberg.net .
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Kenneth Wong at kwong11@bloomberg.net ; Jamie Butters at jbutters@bloomberg.net .

CV said...

Fed workers told: Stay away from those leaked cables


"the Obama administration has warned federal government employees, and even some future diplomats, that they must refrain from downloading or even linking to any."

cv said...

Copper: Part I The new currency.


Nickles bitchez!

wunsacon said...

It's important to keep some information secret. But, this information is all over the internet now. I argue it's in the public domain. Telling people not to download -- which is required for reading it -- is not right.

More Big Brother-ism.

cv said...

big brother bitchez! :-)


It's time to embrace the insanity!

Anonymous said...

Via: Irish Times:

IT HAS BEEN the talk of Athlone for almost two years. What began as vague whisperings of Chinese investors scouting the midlands town for a major project soon developed into umpteen rumours, each one grander than the last. Local wags spoke of “Shanghai-on-Shannon” – but there were few facts. “It all appeared quite nebulous until the Taoiseach spoke publicly about it in late June,” says Tadhg Carey, editor of the Westmeath Independent. “That seemed to make it more real in the eyes of people here.”

Brian Cowen’s comments failed to shed much light, though he confirmed he had met some of those involved. “It’s about exploring the potential of this idea,” Cowen said.

A week later the Westmeath Independent published excerpts from a preliminary design statement and an image of what the project might look like. It describes “the greatest commercial and trade centre, tour centre, cultural centre, amusement centre and international conference centre in Europe”. The plans include a convention centre in the style of a Chinese palace, two five-star hotels, apartment complexes, a railway station, two bus terminals, a school, a medical centre, a fire station, a six-hole golf course and a 180m tower topped with a rotating viewing gallery.


Anonymous said...


posts, from earlier, were 'disappeared'..


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