Many have been reading all the "2011 Predictions" that the Doug Kasses of the world like to put out... (although I do like the little list that LB linked to Mish yesterday)...
Remember last year we all did a little list on S&P "High-Low" predictions for the year? CV's entry was HIGH 1235 - Low 840...
Frankly, I feel pretty good about that... Here's why...1235 was almost correct... We peaked at 1220 in April and then pulled back... Everyone remembers the summer, when that S&P was trading down near 1,000, it was getting ready to take out some technical levels, that, if busted, could have VERY WELL taken us down into the 800's quickly... Look at any chart and you'll see that when you're talking an "8" handle, 840 is about as good a number as any...
What happened thereafter was the Bernank going beserk and basically offering up QE∞ which the bankers embraced as their only possible chance to get any bonuses for 2010 markets embraced with enthisiasm, and took the indices back up to, and just past, the April highs... Frankly, I'd describe everything "after" 1220 as silly season (actually - I'd describe everything past 666 as silly season - but I'll leave that for Ritholtz's quant computers - which run on "hopium injections" & silver spoon fed dollops of Grey Poupon - to figure out... either that, or Harry Wangers magic numbers)...
Remember that SPX was at 1220 the day the JBTFD video came out... We're on DAY +12 since that "propaganda machine" was launched and have been green 10 out of 11 times... Which pretty much tells me that every "bonus waiting" criminal on Wall Street, and the Bernank himself, is silently praying to (insert "diety" of choice) that it just continues to hover until the year end checks are cut...
So... 1220 + 15 = 1235... 1260 - 25 = 1235... CV's "fuzzy math" (we're in "the zone")...
So... 1220 + 15 = 1235... 1260 - 25 = 1235... CV's "fuzzy math" (we're in "the zone")...
In any case, based on what I've observed happening in 2010... I've decided that I'm not going to get in to the prediction game for 2011... (Save for my NFL & NCAA Football picks [& Oscar picks])... You can follow those on the weekend thread (as well as the running totals)... I won again with Boise State last night, taking my record to 4-0-1 in the college bowls... Tonight I'm going with the SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS in the Pointsettia Bowl, but based on the conditions of Qualcomm Stadium, I'm thinking I might have to switch that pick to Navy...
It appears that karen isn't the only one with a broken sump pump in Southern California...
Let's not forget that this just happened in Minneapolis only a week ago...
Tell me... "Who predicted" a ROOF COLLAPSE and an UNDERWATER STADIUM last year?... Well - One might say that Robert Prechter predicted these... A little "Socioeconomics" at play here??? Roofs caving in??? Playing fields submerged??? Little humans running around trying "fix" everything in time so that the bread and circuses can go on???
I ran across this amusing comment at Zero Hedge...
It pretty much sums up my take on things (and the notion of tossing my hat into the ring for any more predictions (other than those ones which require a decisive outcome to occur within 60 minutes of playing time [in football games], or, within a fungible 3 hours of time [Oscars], based on how much time is needed for all the Hollywood liberals to tell you how great it is to finally have a "smart" President in the White House, and that the only movies worth awarding are ones that
ANYWAY... THE COMMENT:
"bingo. believe this ..... my husband is threatening to have me committed to a mental facility, my kids think i'm nuts, my sister has told me to "stop it ..... get off the damn internet !" & I've lost what few friends I've had because of this "economic collapse / country collapse" stuff. In fact, I got an email today from an acquaintenance telling me that it's all in my head & I need to open my heart to love & healing !!! ........... If this country doesn't collapse within the next few years I won't be able to show my face in public !"
ROR - She pretty much summed it up (not the least of which when she referred to her friend as an "acquaintenance")... I'm guessin that's a new word that describes those "fringe" friends, who you have not "de-friended" yet, and that you still feel obliged to communicate with from time to time...
Anyway... all I can basically add to these "de-evolution" notions is... (This is my prediction for 2011)... As "We're" getting closer... So am I...
I'M GETTING CLOSER
151 comments:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/23/business/23prichard.html?_r=2&ref=business
Alabama Town’s Failed Pension Is a Warning
PRICHARD, Ala. — This struggling small city on the outskirts of Mobile was warned for years that if it did nothing, its pension fund would run out of money by 2009. Right on schedule, its fund ran dry.
Then Prichard did something that pension experts say they have never seen before: it stopped sending monthly pension checks to its 150 retired workers, breaking a state law requiring it to pay its promised retirement benefits in full.
Since then, Nettie Banks, 68, a retired Prichard police and fire dispatcher, has filed for bankruptcy. Alfred Arnold, a 66-year-old retired fire captain, has gone back to work as a shopping mall security guard to try to keep his house. Eddie Ragland, 59, a retired police captain, accepted help from colleagues, bake sales and collection jars after he was shot by a robber, leaving him badly wounded and unable to get to his new job as a police officer at the regional airport.
Far worse was the retired fire marshal who died in June. Like many of the others, he was too young to collect Social Security. “When they found him, he had no electricity and no running water in his house,” said David Anders, 58, a retired district fire chief. “He was a proud enough man that he wouldn’t accept help.”
...and
“Prichard is the future,” said Michael Aguirre, the former San Diego city attorney, who has called for San Diego to declare bankruptcy and restructure its own outsize pension obligations. “We’re all on the same conveyor belt. Prichard is just a little further down the road.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Despite-protests-Greek-apf-1485283919.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Despite protests, Greek Socialists win budget vote
Prime Minister George Papandreou insisted the austerity measures -- including pay cuts for state workers, sale tax hikes, and axing labor rights -- were working.
"We will not go bankrupt. In 2012 we will return to a path of growth ... we will not give speculators or ratings agencies the pleasure," he told parliament shortly before the vote.
..and
Many were urban transport employees incensed at recent salary cuts and the prospect of radical restructuring -- without layoffs -- for their state-run companies, most of which are rapidly losing money.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/20/a-dalton-minimum-repeat-is-shaping-up/
A Dalton Minimum Repeat is Shaping Up
"The sun went spotless yesterday, the first time in quite awhile. It seems like a good time to present this analysis from my friend David Archibald. For those not familiar with the Dalton Minimum, here’s some background info from Wiki:
The Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity, named after the English meteorologist John Dalton, lasting from about 1790 to 1830.[1] Like the Maunder Minimum and Spörer Minimum, the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2.0°C decline over 20 years.[2] The Year Without a Summer, in 1816, also occurred during the Dalton Minimum. Solar cycles 5 and 6, as shown below, were greatly reduced in amplitude."
..Wonder if the winters are indeed getting longer and colder...this might be worth putting an eyeball on...(in your case, Lefty, all 3)...
Karen,
In the comments section of the above, there are ideas about California's future rainfall....
(Hint, get some boots..)
"We're gonna need a bigger boat"
We're working on it...
Well, the salt mine is officially closed today. I will probably be away from the computer until Sunday. Merry Christmas to everyone, even those bond analysts destined to get a lump of coal.
Guys and gals...remember...JBTFD!
Haven't been around much, but thanks for the post CV. Totally resonated with me! Just yesterday at lunch, my dad says "so, you think FCX can go to 130?" (1, we have very interesting meal time conversations, and 2, I've created a put-selling monster!!!) When I say that I think the precious metals will have a big correction soon he gets all hot under the collar at me and blames my overall bearish bent, then spouts off all these pseudo stats about how the market for copper (copper!?!?) is looking really good next year. I'm feeling the heat.
BinT -- Prichard AL made my morning radio news today...
Merry Christmas everyone!
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/dec2010/pi20101222_648765.htm?campaign_id=yhoo
Shooting Gold Diggers at African Mine Seen Amid Record Prices
"Villagers, too, are hunting the ore on the North Mara land that their ancestors worked for decades, sometimes paying with their lives.
Security guards and federal police allegedly have shot and killed people scavenging the gold-laced rocks to sell for small amounts of cash, according to interviews with 28 people, including victims' relatives, witnesses, local officials and human-rights workers.
"They are not arresting them or taking them to court," said Machage Bartholomew Machage, a member of the Tarime District Council, the highest local government body. "They are just shooting them."
...Here, at least, if asked,"Got gold?"...the answer should be NO.
Good morning! My what a cheery group of friends I have here! LOL..
JAS, anyone? 45 yesterday.. 60 on buy out today..
You want "cheery", you just go to one of those cutesy little "doggie bow wow" blogs...
Here - all you get is the "truth"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuyS9M8T03A
"You can't handle the truth"
this is interesting: Body of Thought: How Trivial Sensations Can Influence Reasoning, Social Judgment and Perception
Fleeting sensations and body movements hold sway over what we feel and how we think
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=body-of-thought
I have never had a Trivial Sensation.
Someone may have explained this before, but...
Does anyone have ideas about why Chinese and Brazilian equities have underperformed emerging markets significantly this year (as measured by the MSCI indexes)?
if one were bullish, this is the cheapest you could buy insurance at any point in the last 18 months.
Now I wonder who that might be, ragging on AFIA2BNL?
Wonder if Jennifer's Dad might be a Contrarian Indicator in terms of the copper market? Unless...
Maybe it was J's D and not the JP Morgue!
Cornering Cu, I mean. Is his name Hunt?
ROR...
We are almost rooting for "Goldfinger" to rally a bit today, so we can leg into The Widowmaker some more. A bit bizarre that GDX is up, just take a look at GDXJ today....
Show me a Junior Gold Miner and I'll show you a man standing next to a hole in the ground. It was a good trade at the end of 2008.
Matthew,
There is widespread concern about "dodginess" in accounting in China, where some companies may be outright frauds, and about banking and leverage in Brazil. The other huge factor is concern about inflation, higher interest rates and a hard landing.
If you look at India, the growth story there is at an earlier stage, and some of the other emergings like Vietnam had been beaten to a pulp so had further to come back.
M&A Boom Goes Along With Commodities Bubble
By Jamie Coleman || December 23, 2010 at 15:24 GMT
It’s not just commodities that are being snapped up by investors. Commodity producers are being snapped up by other producers as well.
Heavy M&A inflows look to be supporting the AUD as well as the prices of commodities…
Reminds me of the late 1990s when European tech and telecom firms were paying astronomical prices for US properties during the dotcom bubble… Deutsche Telekom paid $50 bln cash for Voicestream Wireless at the top of the market, if my memory is correct, the poster-child for bubblicious deal making…
speaking of emerging, I've been watching the TUR chart
Another breakthrough in medical science.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-22/alcoholics-may-stop-at-one-drink-with-help-from-lundbeck-anti-abuse-drug.html
The drug, nalmefene from H. Lundbeck A/S in Valby, Denmark, blocks brain signals that make activities such as sex and drinking feel good.
I am pretty sure that some of our friends here are not going to be queueing up for this. It probably blocks trading too... and turns everyone into bond investors.!
Prichard, Alabama is an interesting example of the way that Third World America pervades the country now. You should see the rust in the NYC subway system. Now look at trains in the "emerging markets" countries like China and in "Old Europe" - then tell me who is a 3rd world country.
NLY is ex-div today, for any bargain hunters out there. We own this, but aren't biting on more just yet.
these are both long reads.. Mark H - Fantastic must read on Reuters - is America the Sick Man of the Globe (my comments not as must read but offered) http://is.gd/jjaEz
re: third world
take a train ride from DE to NYC or down to DC
that's an interesting glimpse of America
This place in the E 60s has been infamous for years as a hang out for "family" types and "goodfellas"...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_localnyc/restaurateur-who-owns-eatery-complete-with-boccie-court-pleaded-guilty-to-tax-evasion-scheme?bouchon=501,ny
ben 22:
Camden? Baltimore?
Further afield, a trip through the hinterlands of Southern Virginia to just over the NC state line will show you chicken farms and workers living in conditions you thought only existed in Africa or Central America. It's everywhere if you know where to look.
This is what banker bonuses and income inequality breed. Is this really the "Freedom" and "Opportunity" we hear so much about?
oh yeah, been around those parts of NC as well on my way to the research triangle to see some clients, and yes, camden and Baltimore, west philadelphia, it's heartbreaking
Diana Olick
Unadjusted new home sales down 4.7%. Lowest number ever recorded. Year to date sales down nearly 15% from 2009.
lumber soaring again today.. what a crazy market.
McB,
re: view from Train..
looks like a Movie Set from a 'Mad Max'-knockoff, no?
~~
karen,
been meaning to ask, why do you have to get up, periodically, to operate the Sump Pump?
Doesn't that thing have some type of 'level-activativating'-Switch?
and, btw, you were wondering why I was sending you "Stormwater"-eNewsletter, hmm? :)
AAIP
Very quiet day in energy-land.
AAIP,
yeah, looks exactly like that.
AT,
not worked up over those natty numbers? ROR.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/the-1-indicator-for-2011/
camden and Baltimore, west philadelphia
Many of the banks and mortgage brokers did a lot of subprime "business" there, it wasn't about commissions and profits, though, it was about "building neighborhoods".... and "The American Dream". Nice.
"Is this really the "Freedom" and "Opportunity" we hear so much about?"
yes, as a matter of fact, it is..
for the 'Cavaliers of Credit', that is..
~~
We're(writ large), really, f****** st**pid, We were warned, repeatedly, that this would be the result of 'Central Banking' -- it's amazing to hear the, supposedly, edjumacated re-iterate the nonsense defenses of the FedRes, et al..
Some bunch that goes with 'Consensus' "Proves" 'Global Warming/Climate Change' ...
F****** Bernays knew, that, which of he Spoke..
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Bernays+Propaganda
AAIP
"Some bunch that.." Some=Same
YES we have no bananas...
Rather long and bearish post. We concur:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/update-on-the-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-of-85-indicators/
Our guess is the 4% estimates for Q4 GDP are optimistic, and a lot of it was simply due to higher fuel prices. More importantly, this are priced in, along with 3.5% GDP for 2011. The economy will be slowing again by mid-January, on seasonal lulls in retail exacerbated by higher fuel prices.
The reflators are ahead of themselves, but the PPI and TIP spread will continue to rise for a while b/c of the delayed effects of the fuel price increases. Treasuries may well be beaten with a stick some time in the winter/spring, but will rally in the summer.
I don't have the knowledge to talk about global warming but this guy does:
http://motls.blogspot.com/
lots of interesting stuff from a more than qualified person, can't say I understand it all, but aren't we supposed to "see both sides" ??
Mark.. somehow you missed my posts about the the floats (which activate the automatic mode) being broken as well as one pump.. water continues to flow into the tank.. i emptied it last night and just emptied it again this morning..
karen,
yes, I did .. that would A: it...
AAIP
another lame and frustrating market day.. i think i'll rake some leaves for a bit.. pls sext me if all hell breaks loose.
karen... please refrain from emptying your sump onto out playing field...
We have a game to play tonight... We realize that the US Naval Academy is going to play, but these conditions are NOT what what we'd envisioned...
Thank you for your cooperation...
The MANAGEMENT
This really bugs me when I see the DXY down and the EURUSD down at the same time.
"another lame and frustrating market day"
I never expect anything different this week. I don't even bother with anything this week, typically, unless some low volume big move needs to be faded.
Matt
Some thoughts about China. I liked the line about China being like a bus going at 50mph and packed with explosives. He also talks a bit about corruption and bureaucracy. He is Russian, so he knows of what he speaks. Americans have no idea how much corruption lurks in some of these countries.
http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2010/10/18/why-china-is-really-in-big-trouble/
This really bugs me when I see the DXY down and the EURUSD down at the same time.
It's my fault, I am strong. Mrs Watanabe should be careful with her leveraged AUDJPY and NZDJPY trades. Wonder if Asian players are smelling a risk-off move? You know I am everyone's favorite haven.
Thanks for the link "A fixed income analyst to be named later" :D
The interviewee was very lucid.
I guess the reason I have a little problem with China and Brazil lagging EMs is that they all seem to have these overcapacity and transparency issues and it seems like they should be tightly coupled. When I start to see the risk premiums separate so much, I get a little confused.
Matthew,
that was a good i-view, I had read that a while back..
one can sign up for e-mail service that includes stuff that he 'shakes out into the wild'...
see, at the end of article..
"...Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo. He is the author of “Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets” (Wiley 2007). To receive Vitaliy’s future articles my email, click here..."
AAIP
I suspect that the HFs who are in those markets simply rotate among EMs to some degree in the same way that the domestic equity guys in Dallas rotate between "tech", "telecoms", "retail" and other high beta sectors.
When oil is high, you go with Russia, when gold is up, South Africa, copper and coal, Australia, soft commodities, Brazil. You get the idea.
Working in Denver, I suspect that guy is pretty close to the mining sector and knows when insiders are selling. That usually precedes a commodity collapse/correction by a few months. After a while, insider selling gets noticed by hedge funds and they start selling too.
When GDX/GLD or XLB/JJC starts to decline sharply, you have an inkling of what might be ahead. The OIH slipped in 2008 well before the USO tumbled, as insiders knew it was a bubble at $100-125/bbl wtic, even if Krugman didn't...
We are devotees of the Sideways Market theme, and we share VNK's views regarding the importance of owning dividend stocks, holding cash and buying-and-selling rather than holding. We really like to "trade around a core position" in dividend stocks and high yield bonds.
Income is what it is all about in these markets. Sitting on your cash is one of the best things you can do in choppy bear markets, as an opportunity will always present itself before long.
Ya'll forget bout them markets now, shucks, come down my place this weekend fer some real fun
check out this chart:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dogismyth/folders/Default/media/facc4296-7f0f-4dfb-b792-fdb75a8ad7d6
http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2010/12/22/the-most-important-graph-of-the-year/
The most important graph of the year
...About to close it down, but this is interesting. And maybe someone here suggested this, I just got around to reading it. There is a lot of red under the curve..that will have to go away somehow.
“Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets”
I'd bet that in about a decade this book will be a big seller, you know, since instead people might want to think about that now, but quite often stuff like that sells after the fact.
I seem to remember reading that when Frost and Prechter put out EWP, which was super bullish at a time when everyone was in the super bear 70's and early 80's it sold something like 300 copies on the first print, I think in 1986 it sold over a million.
i accidentally just discovered the ticker EW.. quite a ride up.
i'm confused at the FT graph actually..
Yeah, one day, maybe even B in T will say, you know, maybe (AFIA2BNL) wasn't such a tool holding high dividend stocks and junk bonds and trading in and out of Treasuries...
Now for the time being, of course, we love the abuse..
Mr Market has offered us another bite at The Widowmaker today, which we accepted. The Chinese would think it was a good joke if they hiked on Boxing Day, as a sort of gift to Western investors. They really don't need to pay these copper and iron ore prices, and sooner or later they will do something about it.
The FT article was unreadable. Usually the writing is better.
interesting:
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=175706
gotta say I'm on board w/ much of this:
"...We are devotees of the Sideways Market theme, and we share VNK's views regarding the importance of owning dividend stocks, holding cash and buying-and-selling rather than holding. We really like to "trade around a core position" in dividend stocks and high yield bonds.
Income is what it is all about in these markets. Sitting on your cash is one of the best things you can do in choppy bear markets, as an opportunity will always present itself before long..."
w/the proviso "Fade Calls to generate, even, more Income.." the ol' adage "Always Be Selling"--applies, including Fading Puts to initiate Long Positions..
AAIP
Ben
I think everyone has eliminated the possibility that 2011 becomes another year of deleveraging as the collective desire to hold up unsupportable asset prices (housing) begins to wane.
If this does come to pass, it won't be very "growthy", it will be more of a stumble and bumble, extend and pretend kind of year. Do we really think the bond guys who bought the 30y at 4.60% are morons? I'm not sure they are, you know. If we go back and kiss that level in January, I may join them. If there is a surge in junk and credit spreads tighten further, with the long bond going out to 4.80-5.00%, then I am buying Treasuries with both hands.
Turning Japanese. Hai hai hai...
Actually, I am a fan of AFIATBNL. But someone is posting under his aegis and he, sir, is a sexist infidel. Poor Karen, underwater these many days and having to put up with the likes of that scurvy miscreant.
Lefty, you should out the rascal...
If there is a surge in junk and credit spreads tighten further, with the long bond going out to 4.80-5.00%, then I am buying Treasuries with both hands.
...I will join you.
We do certainly feel for the lady after being pounded for several days, getting extremely wet and then being involved in a lot of pumping in the middle of the night, receiving 5-8 inches repeatedly.
And would China who is supposedly in short term notes, join you too?
Debt financing going up? Time will tell...
Red Card.
The year isn't over...
but...
a blast from the past!
(bold - highs/lows were not breached)
52wk Range: 1,010.91 - 1,259.39
Monday, January 11, 2010
S&P 500 Predictions --- One Week In
Below are commenter's predictions for the 2010 high and low tick for the S&P 500.
The high for the year so far is 1145 (rounded). Those whose "highs" are lower than this are red...
Reader High Tick Low Tick
72bat 1188 770
AmenRa 1190 690
Andy T 1050 760
bergsten 1250 625
Colin 1250 750
cv 1235 840
Dave Theory 1188 503
dss 1200 875
Emmanuel117 1220 920
HopeImWrong 1240 840
I-Man 1078 777
KC 1100 480
leftback 1188 550
lovethegoldtrend 1340 990
Mannwich 1165 895
Matthew 1170 950
McFearless 1158 764
mcHappy 1080 550
Onlooker 1000 560
Patrick 1200 500
qqqqtrader 1298 946
Squid Eater 1202 790
TexasRadio 1080 600
Todd 1200 900
Wershovenist Pig 1100 750
Average 1175 743
AFIATBNL: A Gentleman LEFTY: A sex-crazed debauched ne'er-do-well.
AFIATBNL: Loves the world. LEFTY: Loves half the world. (Yep...)
AFIATBNL: Always polite. LEFTY: Always causing trouble.
etc.
...this is the way I see it anyway....
..Later, taters.
let's see what happens at 1254...
It's probably a good thing we took over the bond beat....
Have a Merry one, Bruce.
Looking at the predictions, a lot of us underestimated QE (infinity).
We should have DXY and TNX range predictions for 2011, I think.
Maybe gold too.
You have pretty feet, Karen.
I rather think I underestimated the power of a social mood at cycle degree and how large rallies can be at this degree within secular bear markets
bottom line is none of us have ever traded in a secular bear market like this outside of some of you that traded Japan after the fallout.
Yes, this is Terra Incognita for most of us. I didn't trade Japan until after 2000, when it was pennies on the dollar. But knowing the history of the RE bubble and stock market collapse there helped a great deal in 2007.
Did this bubble already pop? Stay tuned...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GDXJ:US
TBT is asserting itself again..
AGQ is a nightmare.. those silverbugs are nucking futs. It that 30 day triangle breaks down.. we will see some tears.
H&S on the dow forming on the daily?
Buckle up for the Austerity v Entitlement wars, Ben.
Already playing on the streets of Athens.
AGQ and GDXJ are indentical on the 30 min 30 day chart..
Our "Widowmaker" is a chimera of short (Ag) and short (GDX). Wonder how much margin/leverage is lurking in those markets...?
I just wonder how swift the $gold sell off will be.. and if 1250-75 will be bot..
LB, you spend too much on commissions...
wish i'd bot the TBT dip.. i think AR and I are the only ones bullish that..
Holding HYG is a bit like holding TBT. Spreads are tighter today.
You know how much we enjoy a tighter spread.
you spend too much on commissions...
We have to enter slowly because of our large size.
good luck on the widowmaker trade, you may nail that
I had too much cold steel with silver this year.
still short SPY from this week with the 128.01 stop, even if this is not the start of a larger wave down there are enough divergences for me to believe we are topping at some degree and I can count five waves up completed or nearly so from either from July or the August lows so I'm bearish January at the minimum.
One month at a time.
also, I'm fairly certain that there is no way the dollar is impulsing up off the recent lows, despite how EWI has labeled their charts, it's still a corrective move from where I'm sitting.
DUST could be a buy if someone was feeling gutsy : )
DUST had a nice little base there on the 60 min chart until if fell out of bed today..
problem with DUST is its low low volume.
I'm somewhat amused by the hedgie using twitter to trade, there's this thing called elliott wave, measures social mood, maybe they hadn't heard of it.
Also, $39 million to start a hedge fund?
I never pay attention to when they start but that seems really small to me.
Agreed.
That could take off, like a BULL, in a CHINA STOP.
arf arf
whats the ticker for catfood?
I started with $1M, more or less.
Now everyone <3s me.
...Here are three more major investment themes the majority is still ignoring.
Water scarcity
We still won't admit that Las Vegas shouldn't exist. Yet its population continues to climb while 90% of its water comes from the Colorado River.
According to the Bureau of Reclamation, “The Upper Colorado River Basin is experiencing a protracted multi-year drought which began in October 1999.” In October, Lake Meade — which is fed by the Colorado — fell to its lowest level in 75 years.
Problems like this are commonplace all over the globe...
A billion people still lack access to safe drinking water; 2.5 billion lack access to water for sanitation and waste disposal. Drought and climate change are leading to the drying up of fertile land around the globe.
But like the end of cheap oil, there is huge profit potential in this situation.
When asked at a recent agriculture investment conference in Geneva whether it is possible to make money from water, Judson Hill of NGP Global Adaption Partners was clear: “Buckets... Buckets of money.”
Hill added, “The water business is very much like the energy business was 20 or 25 years ago. As the price of water increases we are all going to become better stewards, not because we all become environmentalists but because it will affect our pocketbooks.”
A renewed focus on water distribution and agricultural irrigation is imminent. Companies that manage water or help customers use less will be highly sought.
Top picks: Lindsay Corp. (NYSE: LNN) and Layne Christensen (NASDAQ: LAYN)..."
http://email.angelnexus.com/hostedemail/email.htm?h=d80e6c92d6460d11b377352cdff7b173&CID=7675366750&ch=A593D17423A2D4EC3D243150ABB4D122
AAIP
whats the ticker for catfood?
WHSK
i think HYG just topped out based on the 60 min..
No water scarcity in So Cal this week. Excess liquidity.
Not enough pumping...
We see new year flows into SPY, HYG and JNK and out of Treasuries.
Then we plan to sell the rip in HY and buy the dip in TLT.
It may not come to pass, but it is good to have a mental picture.
yeah, DE started with that much, but that was in the early 90's wasn't it?
I thought compliance costs ran roughly $250k per year on the average hedge fund, $39 million at 2% after you factor that in, rent, tech fees, staff, seems small. Maybe I'm wrong, the costs are lower.
...Austrians Do Not Call for Establishing a Gold Standard by Decree
To get the ball rolling, Austrian economists (in particular those in the Misesian-Rothbardian tradition) uncompromisingly call for replacing fiat money with free-market money — money that is produced by the free interplay of the supply of and demand for money.
Such a recommendation has a firm economical-ethical footing: free-market money is the only monetary order that is compatible with private-property rights, the governing principle of the free-market society.
The focus on private-property rights does not only follow from natural-rights theory (in the Lockean tradition), but it can be ultimately justified on the basis of the self-evident, irrefutable axiom of human action, as Hans-Hermann Hoppe has shown.[1]
Austrians therefore argue for privatizing money production, shutting down central banks, and letting the market decide what kind of money people want to use. Government wouldn't have to play any active role in the workings of a free-market monetary system.
One may hold the view that precious metals — in particular gold and silver, and to some extent copper — would be the freely chosen, universally accepted means of exchange. In other words, they could become money once people have a free choice in monetary matters..."
http://mises.org/daily/4880
ibid.
I traded LNN back in 2007, it made a giant double top in 2008.
This is why you don't live in the 'foothills' in CA.... mudslides.
http://news.yahoo.com/video/us-15749625/calif-communities-surrounded-by-mud-23605686
CV will appreciate this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/22/world/africa/22mali.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper
BNP Media • 2401 W. Big Beaver, Suite 700 • Troy, MI 48084
HFs are way way bigger than they were in the 90s, and the compliance works really well, ask Madoff investors and those who were in the feeder funds. I know people who invested in Fraudfield Greenwich who had never even heard of Madoff. They would have been better off in CDs with B in T.
if You guys want to make money in 2011, just follow this guy:
http://www.nailsinvestments.com/
194 wins/ 0 losses
Cramer said he was "one of the greats"
what could go wrong
PS: stock up on licorice
We're still in a $2 range on the SPX. I've spent more time getting beat at chess on the Mac than watching the market.
thanks for the mud video.. yikes! makes being snowed in seem like a walk in winter wonderland.
Just received a letter from WF stating in 2011 ALL of my mutual funds expense costs will be much lower, some expenses cut more than 50% from previous... hmmmm
I see one went from .74 to .20, guess this is good news but what are they up to... really.
I'm batting a 1.000
British pig producers continue building in cold conditions
Release Date: Wednesday, December 22, 2010
The widespread arctic conditions in the UK have not stopped British pig producers from continuing to build new accommodations for their animals.
A spokesman for the Staffordshire, UK-based ARM Buildings said his company has been able to continue with the majority of its contracts for new piggeries.
“Of course, we have had to postpone work on some sites for health and safety reasons or where the delivery lorries simply couldn’t get to the farm, but otherwise it was business as usual, particularly where the roofs were already on the houses,” he said.
Recent snow and cold weather have brought travel delays for air, rail and car passengers and numerous business and school closures throughout the UK.
http://www.wattagnet.com/ViewNewsLetter.aspx?id=19637&issueid=19645&elementid=9980&taxonomyid=2175&menuparentId=2171
Ra,
have you ever beat the Mac in chess?
I've almost busted mine a few times playing (temper temper)
IEF isn't looking very good on the weekly now..
"...but what are they up to... really..."
inducing peep to 'stay in'
much squawk about 'Gov't confiscation of 401k, et al., plans..
growing awareness of 'Costs'/'costs of long-only' set-up'..
AAIP
a sight for sore eyes.. AIG.. i think i pointed out yesterday's candle.
LOL at GM.. a bit of profit taking on yesterday's gain, looks like
and an up day for $vix, will wonders never cease..
but JJC now at hod.. someone make it stop : )
ben22
Yeah...after taking back a few moves to see where I went astray. And yet the computer was expecting that and changes strategy.
guess the HFTs are closed for the holidays... volumes will be a zero soon. then BB can just set the price at what he wants with no interference.
@ben22 (12:16)
From KD's post:
"debt service requirements are simply too high, and debt has not been written off or defaulted to any material degree.
He's basically talking about the same thing that CV has said ∞ times... It's the "monthly nut" syndrome...
Attention K-Mart shoppers... We wish to inform you that "economic fear and paranoia" has been postponed until after Christmas because, well, Christmas happens to fall on the 25th of the month, which means we successfully managed to hoodwink the monthly nut thru November and are operating on credit for the month of December...
Enjoy your holidays...
BB can do whatever he wants tomorrow.
Well, fixed income markets are officially at a standstill.
It is time for us to call it a day. HYG above 90.
But in the silence of Christmas week trading, a Stealth Weapon....
The Widowmaker™ has been deployed.
Now Voldemort has to keep up his side of the bargain.
We'll see how this pans out next week.
GGUF? Or the Clavadista?
Merry Christmas, all.
What have you done with the girl, Goldfinger?
http://www.stormh2o.com/index.aspx
k-
iffin' you care for some add'l info..
AAIP
ps.. many have little idea how 'water usage', and issues, thereabouts, are being used to, widely, restrict development, here, in the USSA..
ben, did you know cats love pumpkins??!! i did not!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcT4paZfflg&feature=related
Weep weep for America's new poor. Lower paid investment bankers like me are barely getting by.... and you want to restrict my bonus!
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Issues/The-Economy/2010/12/07/Down-and-Out-on-250000-a-Year
We need those bonii in order to "create wealth". Ingrates!
http://p.p0.com/YesConnect/HtmlMessagePreview?a=vCY4z-sfBWO924Glzr_uyy
...In an article from Science Daily, oil of oregano was found to be effective in killing Staphylococcus bacteria. It was also equally as effective in its germ-killing abilities as common prescription antibiotics like streptomycin, penicillin and vancomycin.
Read the rest of the article
http://www.lewrockwell.com/spl2/oregano-oil-health-benefits.html
...The Warren Commission should have really been called the “Allen Dulles Commission” because he controlled it and made it the farce that it was. Dulles was probably an elite sponsor (i.e. murderer), as well as certainly Lyndon Johnson. The 3 hardcore cover up artists on the Warren Commission were the 3 Council on Foreign Relations members: Allen Dulles (president CFR 1946-50), John J. McCloy (then chairman of the CFR 1953-1970) and Gerald Ford (CFR member, later president). John J. McCloy was a Rockefeller man, former head of Chase Manhattan bank, and very deep US intelligence since the OSS days. John J. McCloy’s nickname was “Chairman of the American Establishment,” and he mixed at the highest levels of business, intelligence and he was close to the Kennedy-hating Texas business elite. Cover up artist Gerald Ford was secretly reporting to Hoover and the FBI what the Warren Commission was doing. In 1970, Newsweek called Gerald Ford “the CIA’s man” in Congress. The CFR especially 40 years ago, was heavily Rockefeller influenced and it top players were deep CIA.
The CIA has been called the military wing of the CFR; and actually that is not too far from the truth. The CFR was in its heyday from 1950-1990.
Here is an absolutely spectacular article why the National Security State murdered John Kennedy. John Kennedy was despised by and did not control his CIA nor his Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Lyndon Johnson’s reasons to murder were out of his deep desperation and fear of what would become of him after his imminent expulsion from the 1964 Democratic ticket and his fears of going to jail over the exploding Bobby Baker scandal. LIFE magazine, being fed extremely damaging info by Robert Kennedy, was set to run an expose on Lyndon Johnson’s corruption that would blow him out of the water once and for all (Dec. 6th issue, but due to be printed and mailed on 11/29/63: source James Wagenvoord who worked at LIFE then). Bobby Baker was the protégé of a wildly corrupt LBJ in the Senate; Lyndon Johnson was like both a dad and a big brother to Bobby Baker (who named two of his children after LBJ: Lynda and Lyndon). Both Lyndon Johnson and Bobby Baker were receiving tremendous amounts of under-the-table money while Johnson was running the Senate. The Kennedys and LIFE Magazine were literally days away from politically executing Lyndon Johnson with the rope of the unraveling Bobby Baker scandal. After vaporizing the despised Lyndon Johnson, John Kennedy was going to replace LBJ most likely with Terry Sanford of North Carolina or possibly his good friend George Smathers of Florida as VP on the 1964 Democratic ticket..."
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig11/morrow-r1.1.1.html
bac just gave up yesterday's gains.. no worry it just needs to fill that little gap up before it climbs ever upward..
and if spx doesn't tag 1254 before moving higher, it will be completely unnatural.
spy has to close over 125 today in order for EVERY bear to capitulate.
Ruh roh. Looks like the sleigh is leaving a little early.
@
AAIP
"inducing peep to 'stay in'"
I'm staying in for 2 reasons...
For me donating every two weeks, my company's donation each year comes to 15-20% of my donation. And THAT return is not to shabby!
Recently, the bulk of the money is in a stable return fund. Only pays around .5-1.0%/YR, but hey, I won't get hurt if/when the market turns.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/paulson-offloading-bofa-dark-pools
A plausible scenario on how 2011 may develop:
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2010/12/one-scenario-for-early-2011-reality.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+google%2FRzFQ+%28oftwominds%29
ALWAYS have your 401k contributions and matching funds enter your plan via a money market account. Then you can move it when YOU feel like it. Think of it as Cash On The Sidelines....
Wells Fargo 401K'er said...
2x-check with 'Rules', in your area, tho, you can roll that 401k balance into a IRA, on an annual basis, if you so chose..
AAIP
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/a-look-back-at-past-decade-sp500-performance-in-december/
meh -
"you can roll that 401k balance into an IRA"
exactamundo.
being past a certain age, my plan permits me to rollover all my contributions (but not my employer's match) immediately.
check your individual 401k's rules
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=5870
Interesting piece of history on the Fall of Rome.
"Emperor.."
"I'm busy. Go away"
"Emperor, there is a Barbarian to see you"
"Sod off, I am watching the gladiators, you dickhead"
"He says it's urgent"
"Look, sod off, this is the good bit. With the lions."
"His name is Alaric. He wants our gold"
"Well where the eff is this Barbarian?"
"At the gates"
"What does he want?"
"4000 gold coins we owe him for his army"
"Ha! He'll be lucky. We spent the gold on those Nubian ladies"
"We don't have any gold?"
"Do I look like I have a load of gold up my toga?"
"But we were supposed to hold gold to support the lira"
"Yeah. Well. Look, we have lead. More if you include the plumbing"
"Emperor. This is serious. These are Barbarians, with default swaps"
"F*ck. What does that mean?"
"It means we are f*cked and we have to pay them"
"What if we don't pay?"
"I expect our interest rates would rise rather rapidly"
"Yeah, so? Who gives a f*ck?"
"The bond vigilantes, Emperor, and the Barbarians"
"Bollocks to the bond vigilantes. We can kick them in the Tiber"
"Then there are the Barbarians, Emperor."
"So what? We are the Roman Empire, tell him to sod off"
"With respect, these are nasty looking Barbarians, with axes"
"Don't we have soldiers, you know, the army?"
"They are in Gaul, Brittania, or having sex with slaves"
"Shit. Now what do we do?"
"Looks like Rome is going to be sacked any minute"
"Bloody hell, well just give him all our lira, you silly sod"
"We ran out, Emperor"
"Well, effing well PRINT MORE.... and ask them if they'd like some sour grapes while we begin the process of QUANTITATIVE EASING"
You see - if THE BEN BERNANK had been present in Ancient Rome, the Empire would still be standing.
big cats, pumpkins
who knew, cool video
The game is almost up Down Under.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/john-taylor-says-play-coming-end-global-reliquification-shorting-australia
nice shot of the eclipse here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhZWIgUUPZ8&feature=topvideos
http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=AUDUSD&tf=w1
should we be looking for a replay of early '009?
~~~
as an aside, anyone ever hear tell of the Quantity and Variety of Animals the Romans laid waste to, in the Coliseum?
AAIP
Who has started early on the eggnog?
THX! for the info guys!
Just for chits and giggles, pull up some monthly charts on TLT, GLD, PFE or whatever. Makes you look at things a little differently.
** MeRrY ChRiStMaS **
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/dec/22/tory-privatisation-all-state-forests
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