A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: Wake me up when the new year starts. You will get cut if you continue to juggle knives.
SPXSpinning top day (tweezer top defeated). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1241.59). QE2infinity.
DXYBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Below the 38.2% retrace at 80.63. Back above SMA(89) & SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 81.19).
VIXBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 17.74). Relocated to the "no fear" zone (for now). Also has a monthly 3LB reversal down.
GOLDBullish short day. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Still below 14.6% retrace (1392.69) and above the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1338.80). Must have the precious.
EURUSDBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Now below its 38.2% retrace at 1.3121. Below all SMA's but SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3001).
JNKBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing the Gann 4x1. Back above the SMA(21). Tested but failed the SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.30).
10YR YIELDBullish short day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.34 has held. Above all SMA's. Still below its 61.8% retrace (33.72). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36).
DJ TRANS AVGSpinning top day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 5099.38).
CRBHanging man day (and after a long day go figure). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. Above the Gann 2x1. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 317.29).
XLFDoji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Held its 23.6% retrace (15.51) and held trendline. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.23).
IQIBearish LONG day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Looking to retest its 0.0% retrace (11.45). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 11.50). Fed pulled a one night stand on the munis.
17 comments:
'Tightness' fears send sugar price to 29-year high
Sugar futures set a fresh 29-year high, boosted by a "continuing perception of nearby tightness" in supplies, and on a firm day for many food commodities as an expected selling wave failed to appear.
Prices of many soft commodities rose on Monday, helped by some crop specific factors – with Ivory Coast unrest helping cocoa add 2% at one point - and by an apparent reluctance among investors to undertake an end-of-year liquidation of positions that the market had been expecting.
"We are now more than half the way through December, not far from Christmas, and the sell-off has yet to appear," a London farm futures trader told Agrimoney.com.
"There is now increasing thought that maybe speculators will stick around after all."
Latest regulatory data on positions on US crop futures showed speculators increasing positions in cocoa, coffee and sugar, and staying stable in cotton.
'Strong structure'..."
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/tightness-fears-send-sugar-price-to-29-year-high--2630.html
AAIP
nice wrap-age, AR~
I think this says some more about social mood right now:
http://dealbreaker.com/2010/12/netflix-ceo-applauds-hedge-fund-managers-call-balls-to-short-company-would-still-appreciate-if-hed-refrain-from-doing-so/
I have to laugh at this Kyl from Arizona commenting on the first responders 6.2 billion
"I don't know, it's a lot of money"
this was a guy that backed bush policies and TARP yes?
@McF
OK... I'm going to give you a few of the reasons I think dollars are being hoarded...
Please note that there is not really any particular correlation here... Just different reasons that add up to an aggregate...
IDEA #1
For many decades now, other countries have used the dollar to arb as an inflation hedge versus their own currencies... I used to travel all over the world... Some of my first travels were to South America in the 80's (that's where I got my first introduction to this)... So I go to Brazil, and when I was leaving the country, I had about $40 worth of the old "cruzados"... I had no idea about the inflation that these people were experiencing... Anyway, it was August, and they'd already signed me to come back the following March... So me, not knowing anything, just thought... "Meh - I'll just keep these $40 worth of cruzados, because I'll need them 6 months from now"... BAD IDEA... When I came back 6 months later, they were worth about a nickel... So - for decades, the idea to hold dollars (in a world where the dollar price of gold was relatively unchanged - made sense - and we're still basically still running on that assumption)...
IDEA #2
This is 'similar' to the above...
When I moved to Italy (in '94)... The exchange rate was about 1200 Lira to the dollar... But within about 5 years, it was more than 1800 Lira to the dollar...
It was a dilemma for me, because although I was living FINE in Italy... I was getting 'poorer' by the day in earning power (vs. Americans making dollar wages)...
My SAVIOR was when the Euro came online... Essentially, the Euro pegged everything (more or less) to the DM... It didn't really effect wages or pensions (for most Italians)... But what it DID DO was provide a bump to asset values...
Italy & Europe enjoyed the same lending & housing boom that the US experienced... But I got lucky because I cashed in my NASDAQ portfolio in 2000, and bought real estate (in Italy for .79 cents on the dollar)... By the time I sold in 2005, the Euro was 1.35 to the dollar, so besides the asset appreciation, I got the currency arb...
My point here is that the Euro was a game changer (for awhile)... That phenomenon is likely to unwind in the next decade... And so, as before, Europeans will seek to hold 'dollars' as the value of the Euro goes down...
Giselle can be your 'indicator' on this... :-)
IDEA #3
Remember in the late 80's (when you were, like, 9 yo), that the Japanese (with the NIKKEI at 40,000, and Tokyo golf club memberships going for $2mm) were buying up the Manhattan skyline marquis properties, Pebble Beach Golf Links, etc.?...
Well, that idea NEVER really dies... Foreigners ALWAYS want US 'stuff'... In the late 70's (before you were born - lol - as some internet trolls are quick to point out), it was the ARABS who were buying up Beverly Hills and Rodeo Drive with their petro dollars...
Andy ought to be able to comment on this (because Houston rises and falls on the same types of waves)...
My 'inkling' is that the LATEST version of this is a little more 'down home'... It's simply IMMIGRANTS (it doesn't have to be any particular ethnicity - it could be Asians, Indians, Middle Easterners, South/Central Americans, Europeans, whomever... They've figured out that it's easy and possibnle to pool their $$ together and put 5 Chinese (or whatever) families together in a McMansion... They come in... PAY CASH for it... That CASH comes from the 'squirrled away dollars' from many small private folks...
In any case... That speaks not only of WHAT WAS (in terms of dollar hoardes)... But how it's being put back into operation as we speak...
IDEA #4
"Cashless society"...
I "ROR" whenever I hear that expression...
Yeah right... It's been 15 fucking years since WINDOWS '95, and now we're so advanced that the way transactions have been conducted since the ancient Sumerian civilization is all going to wither away and vanish...
Not likely...
In fact - Since I KNOW you understand that the entire world commerce is based on DEBT right now... I'd argue that we're more likely to go backwards than forward...
As people tire of BANKS - LENDING (and 'especially', the NOT FEELING LIKE YOU HAVE TO KEEP UP WITH THE JONSES, plague that has clutched Americans for the past decade... dissipates)... People will SHUN lending, and all forms of RECORDED transactions going forward... to whatever degree is feasible...
The government operates 24/7 thinking of different ways to "make you pay a toll" for every transaction you make...
OLD SCHOOL is the only way to minimize that protocol... This isn't even NEW... It was a WAY OF LIFE that I understood for the 12 years I lived in Italy...
Now hang on...
It SOUNDS like I'm making a case for THE DOLLAR here...
YES... That would be correct... But not really...
Instead - What I'm saying is that under all those scenarios, all people are interested in is something that is universally recognized as a STORE OF VALUE...
And I believe we are experiencing the transformation AWAY from the dollar as being that STORE OF VALUE...
It's not going to happen overnight... But 'hoarders' are slowly making the switch...
Put it this way... If someone had a theoretical SAFE IN THE WALL that they always kept $10,000 in...
Nowadays, it may be $5,000 and $5,000 worth of gold... (50-50)
10 years from now, it may be 80-20...
Or not... But that's the way I see the dynamics incrementally changing...
FWIW - I've moved on to lumber, bricks, pipes, engines, and containers (which are even MORE valuable than gold - and out of reach for the government & tax man... or so I think)...
OK... Time for C'MON MAN!
CV takes the BEARS (lay 7 points) for (1 unit)...
Plus - I still have the BEARS alive in an 'exotic' that I gave everyone this weekend...
Another $400 that you all chose to thumb your noses at... :-)
Actually, the line has moved down to BEARS -5.5 because Brett Favre is starting...
I STILL take the Bears
cv-
you should add 'refractory brick', and 'seeds', at the min..
though, I agree, in general, past a certain price point, 'Gold' loses its "lustre"...
Copper is much more likely 'to be Monetized', going fwd:, than there will be 'clamoring hoardes' (as some deeply disturbed 'Gold-ites' tell it) willing to trade 'Houses' for a, mere, couple of ozs. of Au..
though, you mention 'engines', what do you intend to use as 'fuel'? bio-diesel? 'wood-gas'?
AAIP
@AAIP
Great point on refractory brick & seeds... They are, of course, part of the package... (but to be sure - when I say 'pipes', I'm referring to irrigation [which naturally implies seeds], however, I'm at the point (generation) that I don't need any seeds except for what ones whimsically come to mind... Added butternut squash this year (which wasn't high on my list a few years ago...
...been harvesting my own stash (which is infinitely better because they're acclimated, as I'm sure you can imagine)...
Engines?
Answer: All of the above (for different purposes)...
First of all, I think it's a bad idea to only pin your hopes on one type (as you never know about fuel)...
I've made a few batches of bio diesel (as a hobby) from discarded vegetable oil (I keep trying to impress upon LB the 'recipe' for doing this - as it will be his only way OUT of Manhattan some day)... I'm collecting propane containers (of all sizes - from the usual 5 gallon ones you see, to the 100lb/20 gal ones, all the way up to the big blimps)... Reason being... I see them basically as "airplane bottles" (of booze)... People will need these so they have exceptional barter value... Worst case scenario is that I use the gas stored in them myself...
Wood is as you can imagine... I have 3 fireplaces at the farm... Two are regular wood burning (that's the armageddon route)... Another is a wood pellet stove (used as a MAIN SOURCE at the moment as long as the price point & availability aren't in question)...
My back-up generators all run on propane... & I store gasoline in 55 gallon steel drums (with a few cases of 'additive' octane boost for when it needs to be refreshed and put to use)... (Which is what karen should be doing if she can't find "93" in SoCal (but that's a different story)...
Here's what I see though... STEAM...
In a worst case scenario, the old Stanley Steamer might be a solution for short haul limited horsepower use... Something like this...
http://mikebrownsolutions.com/20hpse.htm
So - you could convert a light duty truck or ATV to that type...
For farm equipment, you go biodiesel (homebrew)... You work with local farms, and/or grow your own (soy, sunflower, whatever)... And crush it up something like this...
http://www.tinytechindia.com/oil.htm
For regular home electrical... The basic solar, wind renewable systems... Wood burning for heat...
I'm typing fast here - but that paints the scenario in broad strokes...
Basically you need EVERYTHING... And each individual system can serve as a redundancy for the other systems in a pinch...
FLEXIBILITY is the operative word...
Good Stuff above Chet.
Now, I have a simpler thought to convey...
Christmas is my least favorite Holiday by a long ways.
Fayre got Woottened...
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_8rpY5fQK-UQ/TQ0NPZ_2TaI/AAAAAAAAKkg/50K6hJxPlsA/s1600/2010Matr.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_8rpY5fQK-UQ/TQ0OCTjZq2I/AAAAAAAAKko/PtRoTslCvPs/s1600/2011MAtrix.png
Ben
In 2011 if junk bonds are "up" wouldn't that be the same as the S&P being "up"?
>> Bruce in Tennessee said...
>> wunsacon:
>> The thing that the amendment does is it allows the courts to declare unconstitutional spending without income to back it.
But, did this stop California? Illinois? And, if the states had their own printing press, how would it stop them?
Bruce, I'm afraid that the balanced budget amendment is a Maginot Line.
And I don't have any better or even other suggestions...
I haven't really given it much thought. But, what about the possibility of not taxing gains on gold or other precious metals? That would allow people to settle on "alternative currencies" that are less easily printed/mined. In turn, anyone who didn't want their currency to be debauched would trade in the alternative currency. (Wow, I guess I'm a gold bug!)
Post a Comment