So let's celebrate our reasons for keeping the BEARS ON ICE...
And continue our incantation as to why stocks, or bonds will never go down, now that the House has sent the tax bill to
- When the bill arrives on the desk - JBTFD
- When Obama unscrews his pen - JBTFD
Hopefully, the teleprompter will go on the fritz for a few manic seconds, which will give you yet another opportunity to JBTFD...
Congress Passes $858 Billion Tax-Cut Extension, Sends to Obama for Signing
Stocks Up 17% Since Bernanke Disclosed QE2 Disarms Fed Critics
EXCERPT:
"Republican leaders in Congress say they have “deep concerns” about [the Bernank's] quantitative easing. The U.S. stock and credit markets don’t share those reservations."
ummm... That's the YIELD son (mr. "credit markets don't share deep concerns")...
Earlier this year, CV (JBTFD) with Vincent Jackson (in Fantasy Football)... That move worked out well, so maybe there's something to this theory after all...
In other news... Ritzy has a thread up on the TIME - Person of the Year
For the life of me, I can't understand how it wasn't "champion of justice" ANTOINE DODSON!
(Notwithstanding "the Bernank's" 100% certainty that he'll be able to withdrawl stimulus in time - some things will always remain shrouded in mystery)...
141 comments:
"The $858 billion tax deal approved by Congress Thursday is "all candy and no spinach," but at least it shows that President Barack Obama and Republicans can cooperate on fiscal issues."
That, so help me Obama, is the headline on CNBC this morning. If cooperation means you can cooperate to add roughly one billion dollars in future debt to the budget in roughly a week, send the gridlock monkey back asap....
I think he meant trillion...
Of course Ritholtz - In his ultimate wisdom makes the argument that like Jeff Bezos as "Person of the Year" was like "ringing the top"...
Ummm... yeah... But... Have you checked AMZN share prices (now vs. then)? How did your QUANTS happen to miss that one BR?
Also... No word from you last year about THE BERNANK, as possibly having "rung a bell" of sorts...
I guess that means that a guy like you can go on making 2 & 20 off the "genius" of the Bernank... So... no "bell ringing" on that one...
Zuckerberg appears to have mild hypertelorism.
BR is being helpful anyway, because that 10y AMZN chart looks like it's drawing a "poor man's" version of 3P&ADH...
& CV is going to chime in with one more little addition...
There is "no bell ringing" until Hollywood chimes in...
The Social Network is up for 6 Academy Award nominations (tied for most)... And, if you read CV's "Oscars" predictions last year, I tried to fill your melons with some seeds of knowledge...
The "Chosen People" (like in banking - like to reward their own - Right Barry?)...
So until the story about this little "Chosen One" runs off stage with a couple of statuettes in it's hand for all it's gladhandlers, then no BELLS will have been RUNG)...
Then they can go back to Holocaust movies until the story of how Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner, & Larry Summers, Jamie Dimon, & Lloyd Blankfein saved the free world...
@BinT (8:18)
CV will too (if I don't stop opening beer bottles with my eye socket)... :-)
You can blame karen... I'm a Natty Boh guy, but she got me on to these "Stellas"!
CV:
I have been pondering the day...(I would like to open beer bottles with my eye socket too...Jackie Kennedy also must have done the same)...
I posted about the massive Washington state budget cutes yesterday...as I cogitate it seems to me that even if we have some baby inflation for awhile, that austerity and debt repayment/repudiation are going to be the global norm going forward. More and more Portugals trying to get out of the blizzard and fewer and fewer Chinas with acres of empty cities.
...If Bernanke spent a good portion of his life learning about the "mistakes" of the GD, I wonder if future bankers, assuming we have future banks, will see this time as mistakes on steroids...
I favor Pacifico myself...
CV:
I ask you the same question once asked of Dustin Hoffman:
Is it safe?
@Bruce
The problem with the Bernank IS that he's trying to fix what happened in the 30's, in a completely different era...
Forget, for a second, as to whether central bank policy resonse would or wouldn't have worked (even if todays levers were applied to those circumstances)...
To give an example... You couldn't just GO BACK and fight the battle of Gettysburg... Why? Because everythings different (technology, social behavior, and what have you)...
As another example... I was watching THE HISTORY CHANNEL the other day... The spent an hour addressing the topic of how Saddam Hussein's regime was modeled after THE 3RD REICH... It was a very compelling argument...
OK... So take it from there...
You get all these "hypothesis" lovers that talk about "what could have been done" to stop Hitler (and, ostensibly, avoid the Holocaust and WWII)...
Many "reason" that "by all means necessary", an attempt should have been made to kill Hitler... There were certainly chances...
So what does the US do? It invades Iraq and ends up killing Hussein pre-emptively...
The response?
Oh, we should NEVER have gone to war... The assertations about WMD were false... Look at the "beehive" that was stirred up... yada, yada...
Look - I don't care... But in the end, if the GOAL was to avoid another Hitler (because you believed that was what was brewing - and - which the History Channel documentary was making a case for - that another 3RD REICH was in the making)... Then no matter what happened afterwards, or how some want to measure it, you succeeded in your objective...
My point is... That is the FALLACY with these types of processes of reasoning...
They lead you nowhere...
ZH has been down since late last night...
The hens in the coop must be running around like crazy not knowing what to do :-)...
Extreme Futures
Symbol Last Change %
SUGAR #11-WOR 31.79 +0.79 +2.12
#11 SUGAR 0.2839 +0.0045 +1.61
ULTRA T-BONDS 125.28125 +1.68750 +1.36
5 YEAR 2.45049 -0.06426 -3.45
10 YEAR 3.64312 -0.09086 -2.83
NATURAL GAS 4.030 -0.055 -2.10
http://www.ino.com/
AAIP
I think all the disenfranchized ZH'ers ought to go spend a day at ANONTRADERS...
That ought to freak the cuddly little puppies out...
cv-
the "History Channel" gives 'History' a bad name..
AAIP
AAIP-
Agreed.
@AAIP
Frankly - I do too...
I think most of the stories come from a bunch of people sitting in a conference room together and concting "what if" scenarios...
They spit and paste a few things together, and the story ends up like a version of Forrest Gump...
It is good "mindless" entertainment though... And "why" I like to watch is that many of these images, or minute historical reference points, jog my own brain to create my own "what if" scenarios...
It's not UNLIKE when I attach a YOU TUBE music video to an article, or concept...
morning! CV, i'm imagining you with a beer belly now : )
So the TAKE AWAY is that it keeps you trained on the concept of NOT just swallowing propaganda as it's fed to you by the MSM...
So I don't really care if THC is factual of not... It just reminds me that hardly anything is factual, and I should continue to keep an open mind...
Or... One could fixate themselves around a group of bloggers who do not invite other POV's...
That would be pretty easy, for some...
anyone gonna buy the TBT dip? it's been a buy since the first week of October.. just sayn'
i'm gonna wait for the 50ema.. seems to hit that every 4 weeks or so.
@karen
I'm just trying to enjoy all the wonderful food and drink that there is in this world while it still is... ACTUALLY... around...
now another question is whether to buy GDX on the dip to its 50 ema.. that has worked beautifully since the end of July.
@karen
TBT - FWIW, I'm not buying it (but I certainly would be tempted)...
If there's anything I've learned since ('09) it's that these moves overshoot, and or become exaggerated...
So with that said... I don't want to be the FIRST ONE running into a burning building by buying TNX at 3.6%...
my 2 cents
btw, gld tapped its 50 ema yesterday.. will probably do so again today.. JBTFD it your in the TCC (Total Conviction Crowd).. aka GIB??
@karen
Turd Ferguson doesn't seem to be too worried about gold or silver right now...
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/
He's been right for awhile now... But then again, so have cognos & Harry Wanger...
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/17/business/economy/17norris.html?pagewanted=2&_r=2&ref=business
quote:
"One sign of economic optimism is surging interest rates on long-term Treasuries. During the first 10 trading days of December, the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose from 2.8 percent to almost 3.5 percent. It has been nine years since yields rose that much over so short a time. Then markets were beginning to suspect the 2001 recession was ending, as it was. Markets now seem to expect a much better recovery next year than we saw this year.
There is another available interpretation. “Did these rates move higher because the economy is getting stronger,” asked Bernard Baumohl of the Economic Outlook Group, “or because bond investors fear the Fed is about to err by continuing to pump too much money into an economy that is in the midst of accelerating? Our concern, after talking to clients, is that it’s the latter.”"
I wonder if the first five 1-min candle rule applies today...
@karen
Perhaps HERE is a better barometer on whether you should JBTFD in gold... lol
Fancy ATM skips the folding cash, spits out gold
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101217/ap_on_re_us/us_gold_atm
I can imagine all the "car jackers" that are going to be hanging around that little kiosk...
30yr Bond 120.25000 +0.71875 +0.60
10yr Note 119.656250 +0.437500 +0.37
NY Gold 1371.9 +0.9 +0.07
NY Silver 29.010 +0.228 +0.79
I'm thinking, as the last two days, that TBT is a Short.
TLT is the JBTFD-play..
AAIP
DXY & EURUSD up. What gives?
the drop in the aussie and cando are helping.. further signs of commodity weakness to come.
i'm not sure this day will go anywhere.. i'm going to slip out to make a cup of coffee.
here's something a bit frightening:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogdec10/Devils-Christmas-Letter12-10.html
Taleb's new book "The Bed of Procrustes" takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. It represents Taleb’s view of modern civilization’s hubristic side effects—modifying humans to satisfy technology, blaming reality for not fitting economic models, inventing diseases to sell drugs, defining intelligence as what can be tested in a classroom, and convincing people that employment is not slavery. (amazon.com naturally : )
Sounds to me like the "latter" post was MORE frightening...
Karen -- how did you know that earlier this morning I was planning on revealing my own ingnorance and asking if anyone here knew what that meant? Strangely, now that I've read your review, I have a twinkle of a memory from a fantastic freshman year Greek myth course. Must exist in one of the few brain cells I didn't kill that year.
Today is my big present wrap-a-thon, and I need to do it during market hours while my kids are gone. Make lots of money without me.
I've not seen many people on financial TV that are as full of hubris as Taleb is,.... jmo. I've always been annoyed that he and Mandelbrot would not give credit where it was due. Mandelbrot's concepts on fractals were presented by Ralph Elliott decades earlier, he (Mandelbrot) certainly advanced it, but he's often credited with discovery, guess that's part of "history" as well.
In re: Bond y's to tha moon!
let me just type it again in case people still aren't getting it when it comes to moods and markets, 9/22/10, Glenn Neely:
"this month kicks off what will be a slew of positive news events for 2-4 months. Why? The counter-trend rally that began 03/09 is nearing its end. So, to create an important top, the market must now convince the majority it is now safe to get back in."
The majority are using the bond movement to confirm their linear projections of "the economy", iow, they are now convinced.
Or, as RP said on Wednesday night
This is a catharsis of bullish conviction
I guess 3.5% & 4.6% was more than BB & TG could handle.
I'm going to counter Satan with a little Erma Bombeck. Here is a Christmas essay from 1976 that I have loved for years. I try to re-read it as inspiration before writing our own annual missive (which this year seems to need an "R" rated addendum as all the funny things our kids have said this year are only funny to a certain few with adult senses of humor.) http://wandascountryhome.com/christmas/chimes/
And yes, I realize Ben wasn't born when this was written.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The estate of Jeffry Picower has reached an agreement with the trustee for the liquidation of Bernard Madoff Investment Securities and federal prosecutors to compensate victims of Madoff's Ponzi scheme, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York said Friday. The settlement is expected to total $7.2 billion and is by far the largest related to Madoff's case, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Later, traders :-)
today, it's time for a little Bing Crosby in the office, my favorite Christmas album:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecnehcLIVeI
yesterday was a blast, it snowed pretty good in philly, I just so happened to leave center city at rush hour, took me over 3.5 hours to get home, which is normally about a 30-35 minute trip. I'd guess I saw 40 accidents on the way.
So I had THAT going for me.
TLT Calls
90.00 TLT110122C00090000 2.75 0.15 2.89 2.93 54 2,167
91.00 TLT110122C00091000 2.33 0.38 2.27 2.31 136 12,073
92.00 TLT110122C00092000 1.80 0.19 1.76 1.81 489 6,604
93.00 TLT110122C00093000 1.37 0.21 1.33 1.36 313 3,459
94.00 TLT110122C00094000 1.00 0.17 0.99 1.02 143 3,893
95.00 TLT110122C00095000 0.74 0.14 0.73 0.74 214 3,693
96.00 TLT110122C00096000 0.53 0.13 0.53 0.56 33 4,345
97.00 TLT110122C00097000 0.38 0.04 0.38 0.40 50 1,885
98.00 TLT110122C00098000 0.28 0.04 0.28 0.30 89 1,452
99.00 TLT110122C00099000 0.20 0.02 0.20 0.22 1 1,817
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TLT&m=2011-01
AAIP
320.90 -0.35 (-0.11%) AAPL
http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php
is, still, saying ~310, who'll be correct?
ibid.
wow! for once the ten min $indu of the last 4 days looks nothing like the $spx on same time frames..
$indu has a h&s, btw..
i think that is the dollar's influence on those thirty?
copper is bugging the heck out of me..
ben, what you described is a total nightmare, lol..
remember when a euro weakness saw a flight to gold?
Merkel suffers her first defeat!
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adX4S2LuyXyQ
hilarious!!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/you-want-vol-heres-your-vol
"copper is bugging the heck out of me"
nickles bitchez!
fxe = inverted cup and handle on 3 month daily chart.
uup = sloppy cup and handle on 3 month daily chart.
SMA(144) was broken on 1/15/10 & 8/11/10 on the EURUSD. Freefall may be imminent.
but nothing is supposed to happen except a santa claus rally between now and the end of the year.. as a matter of fact, all the humans have already taken off for the holidays secure in the knowledge that the fed has their backs..
don't mind me, i'm just blabbing..
There was a Chanos interview on Bloomberg yestrday...
I had the link saved, then I lost it... I'm too lazy to find it but if anyone is interested in the latest Chanos/China affirmation is...
It's there...
CV, what is the stick figure with the gasoline can (?) supposed to imply?
china cracks down on shanghai lending
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704073804576023202671549110.html?mod=WSJASIA_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews
OMNIBUS-T
Republican Opposition Kills $1.2 Trillion `Omnibus' U.S. Spending Measure
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-17/republican-opposition-kills-1-2-trillion-omnibus-u-s-spending-measure.html?nstrack=sid:4832155|met:100|cat:106|order:1
@karen
It's was 'supposed' to be an animated .gif (where the dude pours gasoline all over himself and lights himself on fire)...
But the animation isn't coming thru...
EUR-
To the tune of "it's beginning to look a lot like christmas"
It's beginning to look a lot like capital flight, everywhere you look
Karen,
yeah, was one of the worst drives for me ever, I didn't want to get in my car this morning.
If I had my Bing Crosby disc it wouldn't have been so bad.
I am so bearish right now. As long as 1261 doesn't break to the upside it would appear the count is on the right track. I haven't put on any shorts yet but may consider doing that next week.
To the window and to the wall, puts are getting LOW.......
CV,
We thought it was CV with a can of catfood that was open.
Those LQD bites we bought are green. Just sayin..'
HYG is healthy. You all know what that means for K's wardrobe.
The China tightening is coming. We know it. Goldfinger knows it. Insiders at the mining companies know it. AUDJPY shorts know it.
Only Mrs Watanabe doesn't know it.
Take a look at TLT March 99 calls. If the recent move in TLT from 109 down to 90 experiences a 61.8% retrace, we should get there comfortably.
VIX at 16.5...yikes
TIP and LQD.
Lovely Bottoms? Or DCBs?
HYG and JNK.
Sideways Chop? Or H&S?
Discuss.
LOL, if you looked at a chart of HYG you would see that it is NOT healthy.. hanging on by its fingernails.. you should be more nervous about it.. and perhaps this is just a consolidation phase after its november move.. time will tell!
1278 - nothing to see here folks, keep moving
1260 - still, not this year my friends
1242 - you are here, still
1224 - you are going here (Karen said)
1206 - land here before years end? maybe?
1188 - will be the new 1098 we can't get away from, next year
1170 - slight chance we'll see this near Edison's B'day
1152
1134
1116
1098 - remember me, kept going back to it
that's what the tea leaves said this morning
880 - where we go without QE3,
or where we go if inflation takes hold.
It's a magnet.
666 - mark of the Devil
- and you know who's Bottom
1103 - Karen's Topp
1575 - Abby Jo's EoY Target
I am an absolutely massive windbag and the timing of my bond calls has been disastrous.
SEC and the Twelve Days of Christmas
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/7i2kkc
@McF
Don't you just LOVE FF?
I mean... You pin your entire season on the hopes of one player who you hope will be your "go to guy", if and WHEN you manage to navigate the gauntlet and secure yourself a playoff spot...
That man was AARON ROGERS for CV (in all my leagues)...
So here we are... SEMIFINALS... Team(s) are in the ff playoffs... Where's AR? ON THE BENCH with a concussion...
I know YOU have the same issue with Frank Gore...
I'll tell you... THAT's why, as commish, I made the system so that the $$ gets paid out on FIRST HALF & 2ND HALF wins & losses...
At least that's in the bag... This has happened to me multiple times thru the years that I had a killer squad going into the post season, only to have either my top players go down, or the "games" get played in some kind of blizzard with the final score 3-0 (and I have the kicker with the "0", and he missed 2 wide right for NEGATIVE points because of the blizzard)...
Word of advice... ALWAYS make it so that week 15 & 16 are platers in games that will be played in Florida, or in a DOME...
Hell, this year... even DOMES aren't safe...
I'm just glad that I picked up Vincent Jackson while he was idle...
He got me my Aaron Rogers points last night...
All I need to do to break even on the exchange is just find some crappy QB to get me some basic Santana Moss points...
I'm sure even Rex Grossman couldn't f*** that up... :-)
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/12/17/gold-atms-calling-a-top-to-prices/
Our plan is to hang on to HYG by our fingernails for the yield, hang on to REITS, big pharma and telecoms by our fingernails for the dividend, indulge in bouts of hedging using ETF products and then run for the safety of the Treasury complex when spreads shrink to ridiculously narrow levels or Tsy yields become utterly mouth-watering.
We will let you know when we get there.
880 - JBTFD
666 - JBTFD
1103 - JBTFD
1575 - Wait for a pullback to 1574, them JBTFD
Nouriel is just a laugh a minute:
Bloomberg: Roubini Says Spain Risks Bank Run Without More European Support http://tinyurl.com/36bwt73
and another:
Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the global financial crisis, said political opposition may prevent additional rounds of monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aF0M94P8sJA4
Our "model" for 2011:
Q1 Euro Follies. Bailouts, EURUSD and EURJPY declines. China tightens, commodity clavadistas. SPOOZ tumble 9-12%. Nikkei and Shanghai take a big dip. Tsys rally on lower yields, fixed income outperforms other asset classes.
Q2 Housing falls again, USD stalls out, more QE3 chatter. Tokyo, NY and Shanghai all begin to rally as cash rotates into Asia and EMs. Equities recover.
Q3 Summer doldrums, mini-crash of 5%, managers rotate into fixed income ahead of another round of QE. Mini-bubble builds in bonds.
Q4 Equities rally on back of economic recovery due to stable commodities in Q1. Commodity bubble begins to grow again.
Employment in the US rises by one, as Blankfiend hires a personal shoe-shine guy for his office.
Bankers in (insert name of country) short the piss out of the govies of (that country), forcing a bailout. The bankers then borrow from the bailout authority and buy the govies of (that country) forcing down yields. The bankers then sell the govies of (that country) and buy commodities or AUD. The bankers make large profits and pay themselves monster bonii.
Did anybody see this video?
I'm telling you man... People are getting crazier and crazier...
And people think CV is "nuts" (cause I talk about getting some FREE money by asking for nickels in change, and think it's a good idea to have an extra jar of peanut butter in the pantry)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzkS-wfoQpQ
well, there goes 1244.. 1260 has better odds now.
Anybody see this too?
Pretty cool... Niagra Falls - Bone Dry
http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/12/16/5661928-niagara-falls-without-water-as-seen-in-1969
hmm, fxe and fxa not jibing with the spx push..nor is crude but there's been a bit of a disconnect of late..
amazing, CV!
Took off a portion of my short positions. Keeping the rest on, but a bit concerned we may get more Santa/Momo action on Monday, and would get back into the bear suit at that time.
Just feels best to be pretty flat in this listless low volume trade. Have been watching that DUST vehicle, might be the way to play rather than shorting the whole XLB with SMN.
Leaving for the weekend now. Best to all.
AFIA2BNL8R
Kind of makes you think twice before going over that thing in a barrel...
Because I know you were considering it karen :-)
fia,
I could see that playing out for '011..
the 'banker'-'bail-out "Authority"' "Good Cop/Bad Cop"-routine is inspired/insightful, as well..
peep are going to keep getting hosed as long as they believe in the CB-version of 'transubstantiation'..
"Golden Calves"/"False G-ds", and all that..lo, that we, ever, learn the History..
"*We shall, always, be with Us"
AAIP
30yr Bond 120.68750 +1.15625 +0.96
10yr Note 119.750000 +0.531250 +0.45
NY Gold 1373.1 +2.1 +0.15
NY Silver 28.955 +0.173 +0.60
TLT
Last Trade: 92.72
Trade Time: 1:05PM EST
Change: 1.15 (1.26%)
Prev Close: 91.57
Open: 91.88
Bid: 92.72 x 200
Ask: 92.73 x 3900
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TLT
March Calls
92.00 TLT110319C00092000 2.98 0.29 3.05 3.15 299 2,191
93.00 TLT110319C00093000 2.55 0.40 2.59 2.70 5 296
94.00 TLT110319C00094000 2.25 0.31 2.22 2.28 269 2,154
95.00 TLT110319C00095000 1.80 0.18 1.87 1.92 56 522
96.00 TLT110319C00096000 1.53 0.38 1.57 1.62 47 3,000
97.00 TLT110319C00097000 1.26 0.26 1.31 1.37 100 579
98.00 TLT110319C00098000 1.03 0.14 1.09 1.15 10 900
99.00 TLT110319C00099000 0.82 0.14 0.91 0.95 11 1,825
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TLT&m=2011-03
AAIP
vix under 16...
The U.K. Daily Mail is reporting that President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama will not be invited to the wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton next April. The British tabloid cites "a senior courtier" as saying that "The guest list is still being drawn up and could change, but as things stand it’s right (to say Mr Obama will not be invited)."
http://windsorknot.todayshow.com/_news/2010/12/17/5668247-will-prince-william-and-kate-snub-the-obamas?gt1=43001
I'm guessing Prince William already has the iPOD with all of Obamas speeches on it, so he figured he'd go with someone else...
@CV,
yeah, that was a nice pick-up of V. Jackson on your end. The Frank Gore thing was a blow, he'd been consistent this year, Bradshaw got benched at the same time and Stevie Johnson got cold as well and with Lee Evans out all the D's key on him.
but rivers put me in a good position last night, really want to be in that final game against you for Survivor Capital bragging rights.
who won that SD-SF game last night?
SD?
@karen/ben22
new chart in thread
You know that WEEKLY BOLLINGER BAND $VIX.X touch that CV always harps about?
Well guess what? :-)
CV, we just gotta get to 15.23 !!
nice chart CV, that has been a good indicator for quite a while now.
The I-man and I were talking a little while back and sharing ideas we both ended up around 12/20-12/21 turn dates but using various methods to get there.
12/21 happens to be the Full Moon.
SD won last night anon
34-7
CV,
I snatched Dallas D last night, could be a decent match-up for them this week and I don't love the Gianst DST against philly.
Picked up some of those calls the other day, doing very well so far...
12/21, also a lunar eclipse....
Sexy Rexy to finish the year as the Redskins quarterback...
Heh, heh....
Bond bull said...
Picked up some of those calls the other day, doing very well so far...
December 17, 2010 2:32 PM
to paraphrase karen, "i kno, right?!"
~~
who likes the 'Bolts going to the AFC Championship Game?
AAIP
30yr Bond 121.18750 +1.65625 +1.38
10yr Note 119.750000 +0.531250 +0.45
NY Gold 1376.5 +5.5 +0.40
NY Silver 29.235 +0.453 +1.57
http://www.ino.com/
ibid.
@ben22
Don't forget what CV has been saying for a few weeks now...
- the July '09 low to April '10 high was 201 days...
- 12/27/10 will be .618 of 201 days (since the july '10 lows...
Just saying...
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/12/17/nkorea-warns-skorea-stop-live-drills/?test=latestnews
"SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea warned South Korea on Friday not to stage artillery drills on a front-line island the North bombed last month, saying it would hit back even harder than in the previous attack that killed four South Koreans.
The North warned the South against similar drills before the Nov. 23 shelling that destroyed homes and renewed fears of war on the divided peninsula.
South Korea has said it plans one-day, live-fire drills sometime between Saturday and Tuesday on Yeonpyeong, a tiny island that is home to fishing communities and military bases and sits just seven miles (11 kilometers) from North Korean shores. Seoul says the drills' timing will depend on weather and other factors and, despite the North's threats, the exercises will go ahead as planned."
...Well, this could REALLY provide the President with a significant problem...forget the spending bill.
hey team, was the TLT call trade....."easy"?
lol. ring the register peeps!
good eye anon the lunar eclipse, there's a bunch of astro stuff right at the end of this month....
CV,
we are also roughly 38.2 months from the october 2007 high.
@AAIP
I like the way the Bolts are playing... But here's the scenario...
- Patriots win HOME FIELD & 1st Round Bye
- Either Steelers or Ravens get the other BYE (Steelers have inside track - but if they lose to the Jets this weekend - and the Ravens beat the Saints - then it flip flops - and the RAVENS get the other BYE - assuming both win their final two games [which are against Cincy & Cleveland])... But let's say the Steelers have the inside track for now...
- I'll say Jacksonville wins the South (Indy still has a shot)
- Bolts win the West
That leaves JETS & RAVENS as probable wild cards... (Which means either of those teams would go out to SD to play, depending on the way the tiebreakers work out)...
That's no picnic... Especially because the weakest part of SD is in their special teams... The Jets & Ravens have two of the best special teams packages in the NFL...
Last night vs. San Fran... Cifres almost got about 4 punts blocked... AND, an 85 yard kickoff return by Ted Ginn was called back for a penalty...
I don't know... I think the SURPRISE is that SD makes the playoffs, then everyone forgets their problems on special teams and they get bounced in the 1st round...
In that case... You see Ravens going to Foxboro (where they won last year in the playoffs and LOST in the regular season this year, in OT)... And you may have Steelers taking down Jets...
CV... perhaps, sees this as yet another Steelers - Ravens affair for the AFC Championship...
pls look at the aig candle.. be sitting down..
darn aussie dollar...
cv-
you're an unrelenting Ravens fan (not that that is a 'bad thing') :)
Pats have been looking pretty good, I was thinking Pats-'Bolts AFCC Game..still, long way to go, we'll have to see as it gets closer..
AAIP
maybe that is a bad tick on aig.. i can't find $60 on the minute charts.
buddy I work with just showed me an email he got today, it basically read:
XXXXX,
I just watched a show with wall street experts and they all said stocks were the place to be in 2011, the experts were David Bianco, Abbey Joseph Cohen, blah blah blah blah bunch of names listed off.
then something to the effect of, how could you possibly know something they don't.
iow, you told me something different but all the pro's on tv say X, you must be wrong and I want to make a lot of money. These people are a few years from retirement apparently.
I told you all several weeks ago that retail was going to start getting back in the market, now it's just showing up in the data, I've got the retail pulse bitchez.
here's a little trip down memory lane, funny, 2008 certainly DID bring clarity....though I doubt the kind he was rapping about
DAVID BIANCO, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, UBS Investment Research (UBS)
UBS's chief U.S. equity strategist expects economic growth to slow next year, to about 2%. But he believes the odds of a recession are less than 50/50, thanks to the Federal Reserve, which he expects to cut interest rates enough to provide relief to banks and, to a lesser extent, consumers. By yearend, Bianco sees economic growth heading modestly higher and the Dow at 15,250, or 14% above today's level. With the risks of a recession and a severe credit crisis still high now, Bianco is advising caution. He favors U.S. over foreign stocks, primarily because he expects growth abroad to slow more sharply than at home.
He's looking for U.S. corporations to post relatively healthy earnings growth of 10% in 2008, largely on the strength of U.S. exports and continued demand for high-technology products. For that reason, he favors large-cap companies with a global reach, which stand to benefit from exports. He's steering clear of U.S. corporate and high-yield bonds due to credit concerns and instead recommends British, euro zone, and Australian government bonds, which are cheaper than U.S. Treasuries. As the pace of bank write-offs slows and the threat of a recession recedes, Bianco says investors need to be ready to shift gears by buying distressed assets, such as the stocks of U.S. banks.
Bianco's Calls
DJIA: 15,250 (December, 2008)
S&P 500: 1700 (December, 2008)
Favorite Stock: Oracle
Observation: "2008 will bring clarity on U.S. economic health and the sustainability of robust earnings growth that the S&P 500 has generated in recent years"
the spy and dia have rounded tops on the 5 min chart.. Qs are even worse looking.. i'm up for a friday sell off..
Karen,
you know what happens when you start talking about rounded tops
right?
a melt up?? LOL
@AAIP
Sure, I'm a fan... But they're a good balanced team...
Their losses this year are as follows...
vs. 11-2 Atlanta (on the road on a last minute drive that the refs "gifted" two penalties for 1st downs, and a play before halftime where the replay clearly showed Tony Gonzalez dropping the ball on 4th down, but it was ruled a catch)... next play... TD
vs. the 11-2 Patriots (on the road, in OT, where the Ravens blew a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter)
vs. 10-3 Steelers (at home, they were winning 10-6 with 2 minutes to go before Troy Polamalu got the blindside of Joe Flacco with a safety blitz that allowed the Steelers to score in the final minute)...
a crappy loss to the Bengals in week 2 because they didn't show up after having beat the Jets...
They've had some crazy games also where they should have won BIG, then just got sloppy...
But NONE of the games they've played this year were they ever NOT in the game... In fact, the contrary...
Patriots - Steelers - & Falcons all had to stage miracle comebacks to win those games... (and in the case of the Patriots & Falcons, they hosts - where the Patriots have not lost a regular season game since 2006, and the Falcons are 18-1 in the georgia dome)...
Just saying...
I can't really see the lot sizes fast but call prices are in crazy land and it would seem people keep coming in and willing to pay above the ask.....
the conundrum continues
is it the kickoff to widespread participation, another great big bull market waiting in the wings
or is this dummies buying the top because they have "no doubt"
I can't say I've really experienced sentiment quite like this, it's just....something else.
CreateCapital Scott Bleier
"This market feels terrific and the news is terrific and the indicators are terrific". Jim Cramer. If the market say it, it must be true
yes, I love pundits that tell me about their
feelings
and
the news
then I watch Oprah when I'm done trading
note also the number of companies that are starting to announce share buy backs
they love to buy em high....
I remember CAT, tons of share buybacks in the 60's 70's and 80's
down in the 20's and 30's talk of potential dividend cuts
that's some crack planning there.
bruce, this might interest you:
http://www.propublica.org/article/fannie-and-freddies-govt-regulator-opposes-reducing-mortgages-for-strugglin
speaking of those shit holes
young client of mine that works in mtg department at BAC, she got a random call from a head hunter at Freddie, offered her double her annual salary to go work there.
I had to laugh at that, you wonder how pissed off people would be if they found out folks at BANKS were getting offers like that from the govt now.....
well, ben, did she take it??
hasn't decided yet, she just moved to Denver and this job is in Dallas, she's in a good position now so the money is just one part of it, but yeah, sort of hard to pass up on doubling your income
HYG just popped.. almost over the downtrend line.. LB will be tickled..
Okay, I absolutely hate this market..
I wasn't even paying attention to the market today. Go figure. Nothing but BTFD.
hallelujah!
Nice candle on the SPOOZ today
Amen
30yr Bond 121.43750 +1.90625 +1.59
10yr Note 120.250000 +1.031250 +0.86
NY Gold 1378.1 +7.1 +0.52
NY Silver 29.170 +0.388 +1.34
320.60 -0.65 (-0.20%) 4:05PM EST
no ~310 for AAPL
no real movement in those Options, either..
AAIP
Extreme Futures
Symbol Last Change %
#11 SUGAR 0.3285 +0.0185 +5.95
SUGAR #11-WOR 32.82 +1.82 +5.84
COFFEE Mar 2.2640 +0.0985 +4.60
5 YEAR 2.34497 -0.16978 -6.75
10 YEAR 3.54023 -0.19375 -5.14
http://www.ino.com/
Pimco fuels bond market debate:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6726eeda-0963-11e0-8c68-00144feabdc0.html#axzz18PCgZ5dB
End a BS week with a doji day on the SPX. Figures.
AR, I kno, right?!
Rolling my eyes.. it serves us right.. i actually watched it do nothing. Well, I'll work extra fast for the next few hours.
Karen
Isn't Pimco considering moving some of their portfolio into equities?
AmenRa said...
End a BS week with a doji day on the SPX. Figures.
It's a cross dude... have faith!
TLT Calls Jan'011
92.00 TLT110122C00092000 2.49 0.88 2.40 2.50 2,238 6,604
93.00 TLT110122C00093000 1.93 0.77 1.88 1.92 1,367 3,459
94.00 TLT110122C00094000 1.42 0.59 1.42 1.46 1,370 3,893
95.00 TLT110122C00095000 1.10 0.50 1.03 1.07 1,145 3,693
96.00 TLT110122C00096000 0.75 0.35 0.75 0.79 951 4,345
97.00 TLT110122C00097000 0.54 0.20 0.54 0.56 854 1,885
98.00 TLT110122C00098000 0.41 0.17 0.38 0.41 552 1,452
99.00 TLT110122C00099000 0.29 0.11 0.27 0.31 139 1,817
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TLT&m=2011-01
have to migrate, try to catch up later..
AAIP
what does the PIMCO article say that we don't already know?
I'm not on FT, don't need another password and user id
here's a reminder on how pimco plays games:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/07/markets/bondcenter/gross/index.htm
Treasury prices have dived on inflation worries, global rate hikes and concerns of possible rate increases from the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, the 10-year yield rose above the key 5 percent level for the first time since August. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
Gross said he expects global growth to advance at a strong pace of 4 percent to 5 percent over the next three to five years and for inflation to rise mildly in the United States and worldwide. That combination "is not necessarily bond-friendly," his comments said.
Years of strong growth in low-cost countries have helped keep inflation contained, but inflation should drift higher as the labor forces of Asia and other emerging markets are incorporated into the global economy, Gross said.
PIMCO changes its mind, a lot, and don't think for a second they aren't trying to confuse people either.
As for that article, take note!, inflation and economic strength push bonds higher so said in 2007, .....sound familiar? There's even mention of how govvies will suffer as investors look for more yield.
I'm sure it's different this time.
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