A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: You can't protect yourself from the wrath of a Creditcane. Many have tried. All have failed.
SPXDoji day (also tweezer top formation). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1232.92). QE2infinity.
DXYDoji day (possible bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the 38.2% retrace at 80.63. Still below SMA(89) & SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 81.19).
VIXSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.01). Relocated to the "no fear" zone (for now).
GOLDSpinning top day. Still above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Closed above 14.6% retrace (1392.69). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1338.80). My precious.
AUDJPYSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above SMA(21) & SMA(144) and SMA(55). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 0.8007). Note: keeps reversing once it gets above 0.8300.
JNKBullish harami pattern. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing the Gann 4x1. Held SMA(89) again. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.30).
10YR YIELDBullish long day (confirmed bearish thrusting). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.34 has held. Above all SMA's. Above its 61.8% retrace (33.72). Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 31.65). It's not stopping yet BB.
CRBBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Above the Gann 2x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 296.22).
XLFBearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Closed below its 14.6% retrace (15.64). Above the lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.23).
IQIBullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Held its 0.0% retrace (11.45). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 11.70).
XRTBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 48.14). Closed below its 38.2% retrace (47.61). JBTFD...
12 comments:
I'm thinking recent 'trends' have been stretched out..
esp. in the CRB & the USTreas Complex..
OpEx is coming up, Sheep need to be Sheared, no?
We, either, get a reversal, or "there's a different set of Problems fixin' to come Home to Roost"..
right now, I like the 'reversal'-side of things..
AAIP
P.S. a bid in the Paperback would be a + :)
You missed it, you know you want it, you all love it...
The Bond Report 12.14.10
So we have all been treated to howls of anguish yet again from the bugs and ZH nihilists about the imminent demise of the bond market. Let us take a sober look at what has transpired today, and then over the last month or so.
Today, first, was this the Death of Bonds? Is Newport Beach in flames, with Bill and Mohamed breaking out the PIMCO rowboats and paddling furiously in the direction of Catalina Island to escape hordes of angry investors anxious to pursue the exponents of a Ponzi scheme far more massive than Madoff? Um, obviously not.
Today was a dirty great big STEEPENER. The long end sold off hard on the PPI data or perhaps just because people felt like selling the long end. So it wasn't a good day for MBS, really, which is obviously tied to the 10y and 30y. It also wasn't a good day for TIP, which has a lot of long duration. So what we saw was recognition of DURATION RISK, as the inflation data made people get shorter in duration.
Today was also a RISK-ON day in terms of SPREAD RISK. HY was bought today, at the expense of Ts and IGs. We have seen lots of days that look a bit like this over the years, they tend to follow warmer price data and recoveryish economic data like today's 0.8% retail sales number.
But this is not the end of days. The action in munis we have to say continues to be horrendous. We really don't advise catching this knife at this point.
Corpies: LQD -0.61%; AGG -0.56%; JNK 0.50%; HYG 0.49%
Govies: TLT -1.46%; IEI -0.57%; TIP -0.96%
Hedgies: TBT 2.76%
Today we bought a smidgen of LQD and a bit more TIP. We still own no
AGG and no Treasuries but we are getting very tempted.
Now, let us reflect on the last month or so. We had a mini-bubble in bonds of all stripes. Hedge funds had clearly waded into Treasuries with leverage, and everything had been bid up to the moon before the QE2 announcement. What followed was the most predictable Sell The News event in human history.
The mini-bubble has now been largely unwound as TLT has dropped about 10-11%, TIP about 6%, and MUB has been absolutely and completely shellacked. In riskier assets, HYG and JNK are only off between 2-3% and MBS about 5-6%. To us, this has all been extremely predictable, and we believe that bonds in general are close to finding a stable floor as the unwind is now largely complete. RATE RISK has largely been removed from the market here. Is the Fed going to raise rates tomorrow? Are we Greece? I think not.
So we are now back to September, with Treasury yields back more or less where they used to be, but equities much more expensive. We think that the conditions for an equity correction are building and that fixed income plays of all sorts will be the beneficiaries of such a sharp correction.
Our asset allocation is now:
Equity longs 17% (0% index longs)
Equity/metal shorts 17%
HY Bonds 22%
IG Bonds 1.5%
TIPS 12%
Cash 30%
Note that this is not a all über-bearish, we are flat - positioned for a correction in our income-producing stocks by hedging our longs, and we are steadily becoming more constructive on fixed income. Higher yields from here would make bonds even more attractive. I have always disliked munis, and am not tempted to indulge just now. We are getting close to blood in the streets, but we aren't there yet.
There, it's over. Was it good for you, too....?
"We are getting close to blood in the streets, but we aren't there yet?"
Not as much BITStreets that Mickey Ward (played by Mark Wahlberg in the just released film "The Fighter" - for which, CV's girl, Amy Adams WILL win an Oscar for)... and Arturo Gatti used to create...
The Fighter (a must see)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIcNP2F8cJg
Gatti death announcement
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVVqAsW-Fm0&feature=related
And lest you all forget...
It was with this THREAD POST... That CV's "psychic powers" first started working on Amy Adams...
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010_02_28_archive.html
CV's comment:
"But for the record... In a strange way CV often gets his hearts delight in this category as in the past CV has "willed" the following Oscars in this category into being:
- Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
- Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
- Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
- Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain (but it was a re-pay for Jerry Maguire)
- Jennifer Connelly - A Perfect Mind (flawless)
- Juliette Binoche - The English Patient
- Dianne Wiest - Hannah & Her Sisters
BUT... It's not perfect as I missed on...
- Minnie Driver - Good Will Hunting
- Natalie Portman - Closer
- Julianne Moore - The Hours
- Kate Hudson (my old friend) - Almost Famous
My solemn promise to all those ladies is that it is the JOB OF CV TO WILL THEM TO THE PODIUM (one of these days)... And probably, CV's favorite of all... AMY ADAMS... You 'should' have been nominated this year for 'An Education'... Don't worry... CV's "psychic powers" will put that soft gold statuette in your hands one of these days...
Position yourself against CV's psychic powers AT YOUR OWN RISK...
"re: Mr. Lee
What is his upside?
He is 32, tosses at 93 max, has great location.
Excellent.
In two years his velocity is going to be in the high 80's at best."
you guys got this one all wrong
You don't need to throw heat to win tons of games in MLB, location is way more important.... forget greg maddox, look at that oldy Jamie Moyer, 200+ games won and he never threw hard.
so many doubters....
today all these people saying the Phils needed bats instead....recency effect from the NLCS is what this is
Phils scored the 7th most runs in the league and 2nd most in the NL and that was with Utley missing a huge portion of the year and Howard not having a great year, Ibanez blew last year, Rollins was hurt a lot too and has been in a slump for two seasons, Dominic Brown is just getting started, and maybe, just maybe, Johnny Damon has some juice left and ends up in Philly....maybe. The only team that scored more and went further was Texas. San Fran was 17th in runs scored but average at best Cody Ross being on fire during the playoffs was all they needed with that bomb pitching on that team. They also had beards, and we all know the power of the beard.
Maybe the phils end up like the old Braves teams with Smoltz, etc, but hey, if that's the case they sell lots of tickets and this deal still pays.
From the Yanks perspective, well I don't know. There is little room now for any mistakes in that rotation, and AJ Burnett was pretty bad last year. Any injuries there and they've got big trouble, Boston is going to be tough.
Oh... and there... CV's "psychic powers" still at play because Portman wins for BLACK SWAN this year...
@McF
Well the Bronx Bombers definitely don't have to worry about the Orioles...
...so they have that going for them...
MackieFear,
what about young Mayberry, why doesn't he get any play/mention?
also, re: Moyer, I've long said that if he pitched for decent Teams, during his Career, he'd be mentioned in the same sentence w/ Maddox..
also, the NYY-haters luv to sqwalk about AJ, watch, in '011 it won't be an issue, one way, or the other..
the Bravos+Uggla win the NL East..
wild-card, at best, for the Beantowners..
AAIP
I skipped the bond report after the first line.. tho I'd already been tipped off.. rolling my eyes.. Someone is caught up in a playbook, or fundamentals.. and I'm not sure that flies in this market..
Anyway, I coincidentally ran into a friend at TJ's tonight that would like to post from time to time but has been thwarted by blogspot.. I convinced him to keep trying.
CV, stop scaring me! I really enjoy AA or I wouldn't have clicked on your link.
Black Swan, we shall see.. It is all TOO TOO TOO apropos..
Ritholtz likes the fundamentals in Citi-
“I think CEO Vikram Pandit has a good handle on the company and finally they’re getting out from under the government . . .The chart seems to be going from the lower left to the upper right. Of all the big banks this is the most undervalued and the best looking technically".
BR- from hate to love- dude is obviously fickle
. . .and this from Tim Knight-
http://slopeofhope.com/2010/12/gubmint-knows-best.html
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