AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Shrugged off Case Shiller to close basically flat. Bah humbug.

Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1243.91). QE2infinity. Made a higher high but not a higher close.

Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of the 38.2% retrace (80.63). Held above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 81.19).

Bullish short day (or inverted hammer). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.74). May look to escape the "no fear" zone.

Bullish long day. Back above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Back above 14.6% retrace (1392.69). Held SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1338.80). Must have the precious.

Spinning top day. Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 14.6% retrace at 1.0913. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.0948). Currently has a weekly 3LB reversal down.

Bearish engulfing day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing the Gann 4x1. Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.64).

Bullish long day (failure to confirm bearish engulfing). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 35.66 has held. Above all SMA's. Back above its 14.6% retrace (33.86). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36).

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 326.80). We'll see it in the prices of finished goods eventually (actually seeing it now).

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Still below its 14.6% retrace (11.74). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 11.50). Watch states for bills allowing municipals to file bankruptcy.

Bullish short day (if Pinocchio was a bank his nose would be a redwood by now). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Made a 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 50.92).

Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 28.79). Shorts having conniption fits yet?


A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

The Bond Report 12.28.10

They held an auction and nobody came.

Then again, it is three days after Christmas and most of the fixed income traders are sitting at home playing with their kids' train sets, which incidentally are running much more smoothly and have more comfortable seating than the suburban trains of Gotham City financial capital of Bananamerica- those squealing subways and overground rusty buckets that normally bring the MOTUs to their trading desks.

Sell side pimping of "growth stocks", "inflation hedges", "commodity plays", "safe and tax-free munis", "yield and income" funds, "emerging market stories" and "dollar collapse portfolios" will likely dominate the GIB media over the next few days, with trading in Treasuries likely to be quiet if not totally lethargic.

Once the pimping is over with, we can start to take a much closer look at the Treasury market. We know exactly where the button is, but we are not pushing it yet. We will tell you that 10s30s is not going to get much wider, but we think there is a bit of room in 2s10s before the long end becomes a screaming buy. We'll give you the hand signals.

Anyway, you don't want to hear about bonds, Gentle Reader and Member of the GIB. No, you want to listen to Larry Kudlow and Jim Cramer, b/c it is Morning in Cramerica and it is time to sell your bonds near the bottom, and go for stocks. Always turns out well....

Anonymous said...

HYG closed at 89.73, comfortably above the KPL (at 88.50)

I-Man said...

Excellent wrap and report, I dear Sirs... back to a little holiday garage remodeling project. Cubby installation to the max...

Anonymous said...

speaking of "Mayor" Rendell's 'comment'..

"...The chaos was also reflected in New York's streets, where hundreds of abandoned city buses and dozens of ambulances still sat in the middle of snowdrifts from the storm, which clobbered the city with up to 2 feet of snow. A video that instantly went viral on the Internet showed city crews accidentally smashing a parked car as they tried to free a city construction vehicle.

Officials predicted streets would not be clear until Wednesday, a day later than they first promised.

"And even then I'm not so sure," Mayor Michael Bloomberg said.

Brooklyn resident Annie O'Daly waited more than 30 hours for help after falling and breaking her ankle Sunday night at around 8 p.m., said Jim Leonhardt, her husband. An ambulance didn't arrive until 2:30 a.m. Tuesday. Leonhardt had to help paramedics carry her out onto the unplowed street and over a snowbank.

Officials pleaded with private companies to help out, and the city converted various vehicles in its fleet into snowplows, including trucks typically used for cleaning graffiti.

"It's a bad situation and we're working together to correct it," Bloomberg said.

Some 1,000 vehicles had been removed from three major New York City-area expressways alone, the mayor said. In New Jersey, police in helicopters counted at least 60 vehicles stranded along a highway at the shore. Motorists were taken in National Guard Humvees and other vehicles to shelters..."

that 'Snow n' Blow' could have, easily, caused similar problems in Philadelphia--just 50-75 miles to the West..



I hear ya on the USTreas-complex, somthing tells me that we're going to see a 'face-ripper', for the Shorts, Rally that'll take the long-end sub-4%, to begin with..

some well-timed TLT (Put-Sales--Call-Buys) could lead to ^exponential gains, in the near future..

ben22 said...

whats up guys, looks like not too much market wise today but certainly some more carnage in FI. I agree with the sentiments that in the not too distant future there are likely some very attractive options plays available in that space for the ninja's among us. I see a lot of Johns thinking they called the top of the "bond bubble", which is funny since the term isn't even used properly in this case, I disagree, but lets let them enjoy their time in the sun (it's been dark a few decades now for those shunning bonds yes?). I went against Neelys stop advice when I raised mine but in stock land I expect the market to go down for at least 12 months once the trend change is confirmed and besides there are other counts besides his that are just as valid right now. The call for that long of a decline, that's about as non consensus right now as one could be but sometimes it takes some big balls to remain steadfast in the face of awful fundamentals and a technical picture that looks more dangerous by the day, especially when almost everyone else is saying not to worry about such things. Still, the trade might need to be long first as I mentioned earlier but the bear has not left for good, that much I'm quite confident about. Does this make me a zombie bear? Maybe. Do I really care what people think about that? No.

I won $74 on craps today, lol. Had a good time though, if I'm being real I was more excited about the buffet. Maybe I'll write a check and buy two shares of TBT on the next dip, but then, I could buy 15 shares of many choices.

Stocks aside, as we get into 2011 I'm far more interested in what the precious metals do from here. I'm not bullish or bearish the pm's, but I'm buying physical anyway, it only seems prudent at this point. Gold has clearly been in a long term bull market for a decade, but it's not quite clear that we've had that speculative blow-off phase in it yet, and as RR has been pointing out, all the great bulls end that way.

now it's time to watch these wussies play some football

PS: Pryor, OSU, eat shit.

ben22 said...

A little trip down memory lane:

Asked to comment, a spokeswoman for Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell insisted that "Mother Nature is the only one to blame" and said Rendell is satisfied with his state's response to the storm.

I'm quite certain had any issues resulted from them playing Sunday night the same "mother nature defense" would have applied.

Fitting, I suppose.

ben22 said...

in relation to my 8:46/Rendell memory lane post, this quote, from Doug Kass 15 list:

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

-George Santayana

BTW, I came out of philly in rush hour a couple weeks ago with the little dusting we had, it took me nearly 4 hours to get home to DE.

AmenRa said...


Just ask ex Chicago Mayor Michael Bilandic about snow.

I-Man said...

Long Hot Toddys...

ben22 said...

A common error: Being too bullish at tops:

Anonymous said...

anyone seen any of this:

art. in Bloomberg BusinessWeek last Month..


karen said...

Well, Mark, I can only imagine that Ahab is on top of all of that!

karen said...

Chet, if/when you have time: "Guess What? People Don’t Seem to Think It Was a Good Idea for the President to Get Into All That Michael Vick Business"

wunsacon said...

Wassssup, homies!

>> "Guess What? People Don’t Seem to Think It Was a Good Idea for the President to Get Into All That Michael Vick Business"

I agree. What is he thinking? Doesn't Bush III know not to play golf or shoot hoops or play fantasy football while kids-from-Kansas are dying in the ME to serve their NYC/DC masters? Phsaw.

wunsacon said...

The bond bubble appears to be crashing. Mish suggests China's crashing. I suspect the FDIC to take down a TBTF bank in 2011.


Post a Comment


This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.