Morning Audibles 12.31.10

On this "last day" of 2010... Many people The one half witted person on the planet, me, who happens to be eyeing capital markets this week must be wondering why what looked to be the start of a rollover, or early move to the exits yesterday suddenly escaped the butchers knife...

Through extensive research, CV has found the culprit!



"DANVILLE — A 900-pound bull being transported to slaughter escaped Wednesday morning and led his owner and authorities on a two-mile, hour-long chase through two townships.

Wayne Myers, of Bald Top, Montour County, was en route to the butcher with the raging 2-year-old bull when he stopped at a red light near the Danville Middle School on Route 11.

Then the 900-pound animal made a break for it, he said."

That should just about do it, for me, as to what "answers" I might be able to provide for 2010... So as we flip the calendar to 2011... You'll have to ask yourself one simple question... "Do you continue to want the truth?"...


Can you handle it?

The following might be a "short list" of some of the "truths" we need to face in the coming year...

Ezra Klein... Constitution has no binding power on anything because it's 100 years old



And, of course, there doesn't seem to be a shortage of mesmerized zombies (vis-a-vis the Kucher-Moore video from yesterdays thread who would agree with Ezra Klein, and are happy to start their own blogs to spread the word - I found a few here)...


Their version of that raggedy old document, The Constitution, just doesn't fit their lifestyle... So theirs goes something like this... (ht/bigjournalism)

Preamble:


We the People of the United States progressive-minded citizens of the North American Province of the United Nations, in Order to form a more perfect Union obtain a far groovier chakra, establish & legislate SocialJustice, get righteous with Mother Earth, insure domestic Tranquilitypartnerships of any nature, the "gayer" the better, provide for the common defencepromotion of peace, free love and a total lack of responsibility, promote the general creation of the Welfare State, and secure the Blessings of Liberty some boss doobage to for ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America North American Province of the United Nations.

Article I


Section 1

All legislative Powers herein granted shall be vested in a Congress of the United States, which shall consist of a Senate and House of Representatives and shall be subjugated to the will of the United Nations.

Section 2

Clause 1: The House of Representatives shall be composed of Members chosen every second Year by the People of the several blue States …

Clause 2: No Person shall be a Representative who shall not have attained to the Age of twenty five Years, and been seven Years a Citizen of the United States, and who shall not, when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State in which he shall be chosen approval of the Democrat Party (which has transferred its allegiance to the communist party).

Clause 3: Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers collected in mass quantities from the rich, which shall be determined to be anyone who makes more than $10,000.00 per year…

Clause 4: When vacancies happen in the Representation from any State, the Executive Authority thereof shall issue Writs of Election to media shall fill such Vacancies... Dissenting opinions will be banned from commenting on blogs, and the Internet shall be censored...

---

Hey... Let the censorship & police state party begin!

Internet Groups fear UN Could Threaten Cyberspace

Excerpt:
"Technocrats like Holland have also been hinting at a specific threat: that the UN could become a forum where authoritarian governments who are riled by the free flow of information work to put the breaks on its superhighway."

---

No Refusal Checkpoints


EXCERPT:
(Says the vigilant Mother Hen)
"I think it's a great deterrent for people," said Linda Unfried, from Mother's Against Drunk Driving in Hillsborough County.

Florida is among several states now holding what are called "no refusal" checkpoints.

It means if you refuse a breath test during a traffic stop, a judge is on site, and issues a warrant that allows police to perform a mandatory blood test.

It's already being done in several counties, and now Unfried is working to bring it to the Tampa Bay area.

"I think you'll see the difference because people will not drink and drive. I truly believe that," she said.

Not everyone is on board, though.

DUI defense attorney Kevin Hayslett sees the mandatory blood test as a violation of constitutional rights.

"It's a slippery slope and it's got to stop somewhere," Hayslett explained, "what other misdemeanor offense do we have in the United States where the government can forcefully put a needle into your arm?"

---

While CV is certainly not siding with drunk drivers, CV also believes that one should NEVER trade FREEDOM for SAFETY... Pigs are nice and safe and happy in their pens... That is, while they are in the process of being fattened up for slaughter...

Speaking of happy "pegs"... (and UNHAPPY ones as the case may be - let's start with the UNHAPPY ones first)... Well - I think Peggy Joseph, at least, started out happy...


But as Maggie Thatcher said... "The problem with socialism is that eventually to run out of other peoples money to spend..."

Cuba Slashes State-Subsidised Soap

HAVANA (AP) - The cost of cleanliness will rise in Cuba after its cash-strapped, communist government announced Wednesday that soap, toothpaste and detergent will be slashed from monthly ration books.


Cuba's official Gazette said that effective Jan. 1, "personal cleanliness products" will join a growing list of products cut from the ration books that islanders have come to rely on for a small but steady supply of basic goods.

Maybe they could borrow a few bars from Gitmo (as that place still seems to be fully operational)...

OK OK... So Peggy Joseph never said anything about Obama paying for her soap... But she was happy about Obama paying for her gas... I can see why...

Five Dollars per Gallon of Gas by 2012!

 



EXCERPT:
"Five dollars per gallon of gas by 2012! A former president of Shell Oil considers this likely. The average price on Christmas Day for a gallon of regular gas reached $3.28 in Los Angeles County, the highest price since October 2008. In one month, the price rose 13 cents, up 35 cents year to year.


Where are the calls to sic Obama's Justice Department on Big Oil to hold the oil companies accountable for "market manipulation"? Why aren't we hunting down the amoral "oil speculators" responsible for repealing the law of supply-and-demand in order to line their pockets?


During President George W. Bush's administration, we constantly heard demands to hold the President accountable for "Big Oil's price gouging." House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., just two years ago, knew exactly whom to blame for "skyrocketing" oil prices: "The price of oil is at the doorstep; $4-plus per gallon for oil is attributed to two oilmen in the White House and their protectors in the United States Senate."


In 2007, when the average national price ranged from $2.17 to $3.22, then-Sen. Barack Obama demanded that the Federal Trade Commission investigate Big Oil for "price manipulation." In 2008, presidential candidate Obama urged the Justice Department "to open an investigation into whether energy traders have been engaged in illegal activities that have helped drive up the price of oil and food."


Obama also called for "a windfall profits penalty on oil selling at or over $80 per barrel." As of Christmas 2010, a barrel of oil sold at slightly above $90. What happened to the windfall profits tax?

I'm sure he's going to get to that just as soon as he finishes his "lobster lasagne"...

Cooking for the President: Obama Dines at Alan Wong's

Cost to Taxpayers

My apologies because I'm surely out of line here... CV didn't get the message from Ashton Kucher and his little band of "blogeteer" groupies, that it is MY job to SERVE the President...

So I suppose that'll have to become my New Years Resolution for 2011!

"One for all and all for One" - Doesn't it go something like that?


 


104 comments:

CV said...

U Conn basketball streak ends at 90...

A Fibo number (rounded to nearest integer)...

CV predicted this last week...

AmenRa said...

ES down, oil down, dollar down. Correlation hell. Gold up, silver up (aka Blythe is at the bar celebrating New Years).

CV said...

I have to head out for a few hours, so I'll be back later in the day (maybe after the market closes tho)...

Amen, you can skip the WRAP this afternoon if you're so inclined...

Whatever you want to do (or be creative - like the Bernank)... :-)

karen said...

Good morning! and Happy LAST day fo 2010. CV.. THAT was a long one.. TBT is dipping again, kind of.. i would wait.. $ndx never did better its 2007 high of 2239.23.. better luck next year, i guess.

CV said...

JJC

Nickles bitchez! (off to get some - at face value)...

http://www.coinflation.com/

$4.3386 = copper price / pound on Dec 30, 2010.
.75 = copper %
$10.9698 = nickel price / pound on Dec 30, 2010.
.25 = nickel %
5.00 = total weight in grams
.00220462262 = pound/gram conversion factor (see note directly below)


The NYMEX uses pounds to price these metals, that means we need to multiply the metal price by .00220462262 to make the conversion to grams.



1. Calculate 75% copper value :

(4.3386 × .00220462262 × 5.00 × .75) = $0.0358681


2. Calculate 25% nickel value :

(10.9698 × .00220462262 × 5.00 × .25) = $0.0302299


3. Add the two together :

$0.0358681 + $0.0302299 = $0.0660980




$0.0660980 is the melt value for the 1946-2011 nickel on December 30, 2010.

karen said...

FXA to a new high.. the spx cannot be red on that.. or stay red, i mean.

CV said...

@karen

sorry for the long thread...

The POTUS dinner menu from last night inspired me to do a "10 course meal"

karen said...

I want to marry this fellow:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdYsOs8TpD4

karen said...

wonder what boosted IMAX this morning.. $ndx at support..

karen said...

JJC is playing that leap frog game that the euro played in 2009. DUST might be a good play for new year..

karen said...

guess it'll just be the 3 of us here today, me, myself, and I, that is : (

AmenRa said...

Karen

Hopefully before he becomes "dinner".

karen said...

i guess there was takeover speculation on IMAX??

and in other news, Jon Najarian tweets:
YouTube was started with $11 million investment in 2005 and Sold to Google in 2006 for $1.6 billion

ben22 said...

wife and I watched The Town last night.

cool movie I thought, the one little part at the end was stupid, there's a chase scene in it that's aces.

AmenRa said...

Karen

Is that his way of hinting about Groupon?

karen said...

AR, I guess so...

optionmonster Jon Najarian
Groupon 2 IPO By End Of 2011, gets Fidelity Investments, T. Rowe Price $ $MS commitments http://nyti.ms/g7LvfW

karen said...

this is for CV: Josh Brown
I predict a surfeit of Black Eyed Peas music this evening. Will keep a screwdriver at the ready for eardrum gouging.

karen said...

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/12/31/overbought-the-entire-month-of-december.html

karen said...

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/12/nyt-dealbook-new-round-of-financing-for.html

Whatever the valuation the story of Groupon is just amazing; this company was not even in existence 10 quarters ago... and now has turned down a deal to be bought by Google for $6 Billion. [Nov 30, 2010: From Startup in 2008 to Potential $5-$6B Buyout from Google in 2010] Just as awe inspiring is revenue over $1B... in 2 years... incredible

ben22 said...

so the oil article starts by "forecasting" (trend extrap anyone?) $5 gas, then it gets political, then it concludes that nobody can control this supply and demand which is *really driving the price.

um

lmfao

ben22 said...

has anyone here used Groupon? I signed up, Im not sure I get what all the buzz is about, but then again, I'm not on Twitter either. I wouldn't mind seeing a bloated IPO though, remember when Blackstone went public.

ben22 said...

enjoy:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/may-you-have-good-luck-all-year/

karen said...

well, i just visited for the first time.. so it's all about discount shopping? finding deals in your area?

karen said...

ben, glad you posted that video.. i saw it on twitter but didn't click it..
i swear, i think it'll bring me good luck.. it just makes you BELIEVE IN LUCK!

Leftback said...

I am starting Noupon. You send out coupons in the local newspaper as a circular and then....

wazzat? Been done. Crap...

karen said...

JJC at a new high.. didn't the USA have some copper mines in Ajo, AZ? doesn't this continent have any natural resources? the USD says no.

karen said...

http://www.usmagazine.com/healthylifestyle/news/john-mellencamp-and-wife-call-it-quits-20103112

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

I wonder if anyone would be interested in sharing their yearly performance data? I am happy to share ours, including the ugly parts. We are split into five portfolios that have different strategies, leverage rules and risk tolerance. If anyone is interested I can post the details of the final results on Monday. The short version is that the "winner" was one of our smaller simpler portfolios that can do TLT, EEM, JNK, SPY etc. no leverage, no shorts. Our ability to time the major turns in the Treasury market was key to the success of this effort.

The "loser" was our hedging and trading portfolio, with a number of ill-timed and over-sized widowmaker trades. A we all know it wasn't a great year for shorting stuff in general apart from TLT, but we may need our "special situations" vehicles a great deal more in 2011.

We are entering 2011 with 15% longs (all individual names) and 40% fixed income (HYG 22, LQD 3, Tip 15). The rest is cash or in an active "widowmaker". We expect to add equity shorts, perhaps as soon as next week.

Anyone thinking of putting on TBT today, I think that's a winner for a week or two into the Jan 12, 13 auction. If Europe blows up immediately, all bets are off on this.

Andy T said...

Classic post CV.

Loved it....

Andy T said...

@leftback:


I'm a big seller of Groupon and Facebook.

Those people need to do their IPOs as fast as they can and get their cash back.

Talk about your "fad" investments...

karen said...

new high in AGQ..

Anonymous said...

Talk about your "fad" investments...

Groupon can easily be replaced by my low-tech Noupon.
Facebook could be replaced by having actual conversations.

karen said...

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Bullish sentiment among investors was down during the week ended this Wednesday, according to the most recent weekly online survey of members of the American Association of Individual Investors.

Bullish sentiment fell to 51.61% from 62.28%, but bearish sentiment rose 20.05% from 16.41% during the previous week.

The percentage of investors who described themselves as neutral on the stock market rose to 28.34% from 20.31%, according to the poll.

karen said...

ben, i just unsubscribed to goupon on as I did not want one more daily email.. but what happens is hilarious!

"We're sorry to see you go!

How sorry?

Well, we want to introduce you to Derrick - he's the guy that thought you'd enjoy receiving the Daily Groupon email."

[Foto of Derrick, dejected sitting at terminal in cubicle]

with PUNISH DERRICK button to click.

And, no, i did not click on the button!

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

new high in AGQ..

Thanks for the reminder about the state of my widowmaker...
Then again, we all have our speculative crosses to bear.

Geddit... BEAR ...?

Arf arf

karen said...

LOL about my 'goupon on' typo.

Larry Bothritz said...

Poupon, anyone?

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

TLT has been range-bound between 92 and 94. We see one more leg down in the long bond before we can say:

"ALL ABOARD"....

Leftback said...

Andy T:

Did you decide to become a Spurs fan? Watching them has been a real pleasure. Modric, Van der Vaart, Bale, Lennon. Pace and guile. The league's most entertaining team.

When LB was a kid he used to play matches in the back garden against lawn furniture. Right now, Liverpool would lose 1-0 to the lawn furniture.

ben22 said...

Karen,

ha, yeah, I know exactly what you are talking about with that punish Derrick as I unsubscribed a few days after I signed up on Groupon, I didn't think any of the deals were very good, too many e-mails.

someone is using it though

ben22 said...

oh, and I did click the punish D button.

karen said...

IBM is still in that wedge.. why do i think the spx wants 1600 and the dow, 13000 ??

karen said...

fxa P&F bullish price objective was 102.. obviously it was met and exceeded.

karen said...

$spx ALMOST tapped its 10 ema today.. that might have been the dip to buy.. UPRO, anyone?

Anonymous said...

This is hilarious. Ben, do you have a confession to make?

http://gawker.com/5674353/i-had-a-one+night-stand-with-christine-odonnell

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

This is a wonderful opportunity to get short the Euro and sell the yen.

karen said...

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/12/31/pimco-settles-class-action-suit-for-92-million/?src=twt&twt=nytimesdealbook

ben22 said...

lol on the Christine Odonnell thing, I remember seeing that around the elections but not in so much detail.

nah, not me, I wasn't the guy who scored with the ladybug, but I do enjoy South Street now and then.

but you could imagine if I was that guy!

karen said...

nifty H&S on nflx 60 min chart.

Anonymous said...

Is today a full trading day or a half day? Thx in advance.

ben22 said...

Karen,

maybe we will go to 1,600 S&P, but then were do you think a credit/leverage bubble will form to make it so?

I ask because I think you are smart enough to realize that's the only way we get there, I have a few ideas on where that might be able to happen, but we are really running out of options, we can eliminate real estate, for example.

ben22 said...

today is a full day as far as I know.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

SPX 1600. NFW!

We are already in a commodity bubble. Crude and gasoline are already too expensive for what remains a weak economy and demand destruction is just around the corner. $100 oil is to 2010 what $150 oil was in 2008. China and the US are walking directly into a slowdown.

Look for Q4 and Q1 earnings to disappoint for many sectors. The margin squeeze caused by higher input prices and sticky output prices is the culprit in many industries.

ben22 said...

with financials doing what there doing and my trusty morningstar tool telling me that mf's are big underweight there 1,300 is def. in the cards.

I like a lot of cash here, and the idea of some divvie stocks coupled with cheap insurance seems like a good one to me too.

ben22 said...

ahhhh.....crappy spelling and grammar as always by me, sad.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

As usual, we are likely to see volatility in FX and commodities for a few weeks before the party really gets started in equities.

Alcoa earnings will be quite interesting. Remember that one is "gamed" to influence expectations. If it is WTE, then you know what is coming. Miners, industrials, energy companies are probably not the best place to be.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Financials have more write-downs, less M&A and regulation to look forward to in 2011. Not a very appetizing menu. I expect issuance of equity and asset sales will continue be a consistent theme among members of this group. The FX and fixed income trading desks will have to be on top form to maximize profitability.

ben22 said...

I don't think we will go there either (1,600), I'm still a huge bear overall, but hell if I know where this thing is going to top out, 1,300 or just above would make a pretty picture anyway, I also wouldn't be surprised to see us top out before that before a more serious correction, I just want to be ninja right now and hold a lot of cash.

on my performance this year, my trading account didn't do much of anything at all, a far cry from 08 and 09, and that's because I made tons of awful awful trades in silver, my years hard lessons in emotional bias, some real big dummy trades there.

karen said...

CHS.. too good: (at ZH)

3. The convergence of Hollywood, politics and finance will gather momentum. President Obama will start subbing for the L.A. Lakers, getting the nod from Jack Nicholson and Magic Johnson, while the First Lady will start attending tractor pulls and motocross races.

Ben Bernanke will be a guest on "Jeopardy!", while Tim Geitner will do a turn on "Dancing with the Stars." Everyone's favorite member of the Financial Power Elite, Warren Buffett, will guest-star on "CSI: Omaha" as the avuncular billionaire who has misplaced a few billion dollars invested in Goldman Sachs stock at the bottom of the market in early 2009.


Lloyd Blankfein, the CEO of Goldman Sachs who famously declared that he and the firm were "doing God's work," will join Brangelina on a goodwill tour of East Africa, offering U.S. Treasury bonds to village chiefs in exchange for any diamonds they might have laying around gathering dust. He will be welcomed as a very amusing fellow, though lacking Brangelina's star power and charisma.

ben22 said...

@afia,

indeed the fundamental issues in the financials aren't at all appealing, some of the charts there don't look all bad and desire for performance might drive them anyway.

then there would be some good short candidates in there for sure.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Jobs reports are likely to be strong for December (seasonal retail) and maybe that will roll over into January. Keep a close eye on the malls in the New Year for clues as to the direction of the March jobs report. If stores are empty then many of Santa's elves and helpers will be back claiming UE. Also remember that layoffs by state and local governments will continue and may even accelerate in the New Year.

karen said...

4. The SNAP food stamp program will be expanded to include cable TV access to a new U.S. government-sponsored channel, "Bread and Circuses."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/only-2011-forecast-bizarro-chance-getting-it-all-correct

karen said...

LB.. did you ever turn in your yen? i'm thinking of doing so with my canadian dollars..

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

tons of awful awful trades in silver

As fellow DOLLAR BULLS we feel your pain. That was our main widow maker this year also. Always early, means that will come good eventually.

China slowdown. Words to make commodity bears salivate.

karen said...

is that a good enuf cup&handle on DF?

karen said...

Looking at Winners and Losers of 2010
Fri Dec 31 12:00:00 EST 2010 | Briefing.com

Netflix (NFLX 177.23, -2.57) is this year's top performer in the S&P 500. The stock has surged to a 225% annual gain. F5 Networks (FFIV 130.46, -1.95) is the next best performer; its shares are up almost 150% this year.

At the other end of the spectrum, Dean Foods (DF 8.74, +0.08) and H&R Block (HRB 11.79, +0.00) are the two worst performers this year on the S&P 500. For the year the pair is down 52% and 48%, respectively.

Outside of stocks, commodities have ticked higher in recent trade. The CRB Commodity Index is now at its best level of the day as it sports a 1.4% gain. Underlying strength is broad as oil, natural gas, gold, and silver all trade with gains of about 1% or more.

Leftback said...

Yen looks double toppy, doesn't it? This afternoon or Monday.

We think it is time for many to be calling a close to yen, Swissy, Caddy and Aussie longs. Whether the CAD and AUD will precede or drive the commodity collapse we don't know, but this is all a massive carry trade. Once the thing starts to unwind, it will be a classic case of fire in a crowded theater. The action in the smaller markets could be quite interesting. Witness the drop in sugar yesterday.

This is why we think the next dollar rally could be a screamer.

Anonymous said...

Buy DF and HRB. DOGS OF THE SPOOZ.

karen said...

i mentioned this earlier by he has a point:

Jim Rickards
On Friday+Holiday so no one notices RT/@_phlox PIMCO settles class-action..manipulating treasuries for pocket change: http://nyti.ms/eXClBt

karen said...

well sugar is back up today.. and crude is headed for $100 in another 10 in..

Bill Gross said...

"manipulating treasuries for pocket change"

Come on. I mean, this is what we do for a living.
Have a heart.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Do we all think that $100 crude/$3.50 gaso is the limit now?

Peep in DC and NY orbits don't seem to think of this as a challenge but if you are on UE or minimum wage or you live in high mileage areas then you were probably feeling the pinch at $3.

I'd be interested to hear whether people think we even need a "super-spike" to cause a demand crash this time.

karen said...

LB, I guess that means that you still have your yen.

Anonymous said...

K

Was that 10 min or 10 in.. ?
Just asking...

Andy T said...

@LB:

Tottenham is fun to watch. I'm sort of Samir Nasri fan....

Guess you'd have to call me a Spurs and Gunners fan.

Leftback said...

Glad to see you are calling them Spurs now.
Not Hotspurs and NEVER, EVER "The Hotspur".

Nasri is fantastic. That goal where he did a 360? Poetry.
Chelsea have that tired fading Empire look about them.

United will win the league. They have been poor most of the season.
No losses and they are in first place. Deep deep squad.
City, Arsenal will find a way to self-destruct.

Liverpool need to find a way to 40 points and stay above Wigan.
I would love to see them play local boys and just one or two stars.

AmenRa said...

32.75 is the 23.6% retrace of the Oct low to Dec high for TNX. Then its 32.36 (daily 3LB reversal) followed by 32.05 (weekly 3LB mid). Areas to watch.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

U.S. Treasuries, benchmarks for borrowing costs around the world, returned 5.5 percent this year, rebounding from a 3.7 percent loss in 2009. Bonds rallied from January through August as the U.S. economy threatened to slide back into a recession. They trimmed gains in the last four months of the year, sliding as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke implemented a plan in November to pump $600 billion into the market. Japanese bonds, the biggest debt market, returned 2.4 percent in 2010 as the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to “virtually zero.” The rally was more than double the 0.9 percent gain in 2009, based on the Bank of America data. Corporate bonds worldwide returned 7.12 percent this year, compared with 16.3 percent in 2009.

As a fixed income shop, these are our 2010 benchmarks:

Treasuries 5.5%
Corporates 7.1%

We beat these comfortably. We were less successful outside fixed income, of course.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Ra

We think the next move for TNX will be up again. This is just parking money over the weekend. Treasuries are not usually what investors think of first (retail especially) when the New Year opens. Yield hogs will be reaching out for a few days or weeks, we feel, unless there is some extraneous event, like a renewed European debt crisis.

karen said...

http://pragcap.com/is-housing-due-to-revert-to-the-mean-price

karen said...

freudian slip, that was. min not in, excuse me.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Today the market will close up.

Monday the market will open up.
What happens in the afternoon is anyone's guess.

There have been several markets where Jan 3 was the high for the year. Now there's a scenario that few seem to have considered for 2011.

Bucky the Talking Currency said...

2011 is going to be the year of me.

I am going to have two major rallies in 2011.
One of them is going to be a real rip-snorter.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

This guy seems to have his head in the right place.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Will-December-Lull-Lead-to-a-etfguide-3893492138.html?x=0&.v=1

Leftback said...

Need to take a break. Pizza time.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

TBT is probably a lay-up for a few points here into lunch Monday.

In fact rates at the long end are likely to drift up for a week or two absent some major catastrophe.

I-Man said...

Cheers, Capitalists.

Lets all maximize light, and minimize dark on this next rotation. Honor the vessel.

Thank you to I and I host, CV, and the contribs, Jah Ra, Jah AT, and Jah LB... and of course, I and I fellow peanuteers... yalls good peoples. Blessings, flow.

One Love,
I-Man

karen said...

nflx 60 min h&s still in play.. no ibm breakout in sight.. tbt tapped 50 ema and filled dec 6-7 gap.. imagine that.

Mr Market said...

I like to fill gaps.

Mr Bond said...

I like to earn interest.

Goldfinger said...

I love gold, Mr Bond.....

Leftback said...

I wonder when they will ring the cash register?
They might not even wait for lunch on Monday.

ISM Mfg at 10am Monday.
Factory Orders at 10am Tuesday.
ADP Wednesday.
Claims Thursday.
NFP Friday.

Anything could be an excuse.
If the boys wanna sell, you'd better let em...

Larry Bothritz said...

I prefer Grey Poupon.

karen said...

another H&S.. CMG..

karen said...

$vix has a sloppy rev h&s.. wonder it the top of that megaphone will ever be tapped.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

As a day trader, one of the best things you can do is NOT prognosticate, as it is irrelevant to your job, which is to focus on price action, usually in one instrument only. Prognostication is only worth it until lunch.... nevertheless, we know you want to hear from us...

Far from being a ripping inflationary recovery we see this as being another grinding year much like the last. Bucky is going to surprise us a couple of times this year by going on a very strong run. Some sectors are going to be OK when that happens, others (miners) less so.

External events will be critical. Euro debt issues and the China-Australia-Canada housing market crash are the biggest Swans. These are obviously not Black Swans because they are so predictable.

For asset managers, especially us fixed income types, we have to have some kind of macro model in our minds to guide the process, and of course I usually begin by thinking of interest rates and Treasuries. If I get that broadly correct, then the rest of it should fall into place.

So starting with Ts, we think we start with weakness, on "the economic recovery", but by February and March we see lower yields again, as jobs stall and Europe deteriorates. US assets hold up well during this period. Spring and summer will see a weak US housing market, and we have another Sell in May, Go Away in stocks - and Treasuries will rally again. It's not worth trying to predict beyond July or so, as intervention is always with us during the reign of King Benajamin.

We will continue to sit in dividend stocks (some others are coming around to this philosophy) and we will trade around a core position in high yield corporate bonds. If nothing much happens, we will simply sit, and we will make money. At some point if we have a very sharp increase in yields or a major compression in yields we would sell HYG and go ALL IN Treasuries (TLT) and IG bonds (LQD or AGG) like we did last year. A 5% 30y would be irresistible to the banks, and to us.

As for equities, we would trade a January 7-10% sell-off from the long side (JBTFD, right?). We like ERX and EDC for fast money trades, and will take a few shots from the long side in emerging market equities (EEM) and SPY here and there, as we did last year, mainly when there has been a deep sell-off. Mainly we will stay out of trouble, grind it out and try not to lose money in our core portfolio.

We will attempt to catch the occasional Falling Knife and we will also endeavor to wield the Widowmaker against over-priced assets. We will use double entendres and make weak puns. It's who we are.

Happy New Year, all, and thanks for your pearls of wisdom.

karen said...

$spx and $indu have traded in perfect % sync most of day.. .11% now.. ufb, really.

karen said...

are we ready for some last hour fireworks? i am..

Mr Market said...

Last hour fireworks?

No chance. I am already "marinating ice cubes" with Art Cashin.

Leftback said...

Cheers all, and stay solvent out there.

Harry Ritzbolt said...

To All,

Happy New Year

Hope next year you'll match my performance!

And thanks for stopping by my blog!

AmenRa said...

A run for the exits to bring in the New Year?

karen said...

oh my, thank goodness 2010, is over.. see you all next year! best wishes : )

AmenRa said...

Prepare for an inundation of happy talk: economy is improving, no housing double dip, indices lead the way, EU is fine, banks are healthy, etc throughout January. Make sure you mix your drinks with Everclear to ease the pain of it all.

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