Speaking of remembering (which is not something I care to do much of as far as 2010 is concerned)... It's that time of the year to do a little "looking back" at all the things we managed to accomplish during the year...
Why not start with the great "Accomplisher in Chief" (who is busy in Hawaii
Like the Ancient Romans used to do with their Colisseum games (to represent great accomplishments by the Empire), the Chi-Coms decided to bring that tradition forward & held a track meet to visually honor and represent all the Great legislative accomplishments that BOTH theirs, & our "centrally planned" governments have achieved in 2010... The gala "timeline of events" spectacle was called...
"2010 - in 110 meters"
Now that the footrace has been quietly, and successfully run... All that's left to do (save for the "2nd string" slopping it up on Wall St. for another day & a half until the bonus checks are cut)... The only REAL thing left to do (since the economy is on autopilot), is sit back and relax... Appropriately - The "Relaxer in Chief" EXTEN-ZE his vacation plans...
as it says on the top of the can, once again, "Livin' Large"
Obama Extends Hawaiian Vacation Another Day
Apparently, the "Extender in Chief", knowing that 2011 is going to be another tough year, chock full of battles to fight (perhaps we graduate and move on to "Steeplechase" events), was motivated by what the EXTENZE product has to offer...
"One little capsule of ExtenZe gives you the manhood you’ve always wanted!"
He's going to need all the manhood he can muster when facing down tough customers on Capitol Hill...
(is that the "nutsack" on that gavel that he's holding there?)
If all that fails... I'd say he ought to just put down the cigarette, jump out of the golf cart, & join his good buddy, pledged humble servant Ashton Kucher (who, these days, can be found dodging and running around old VW busses in Topanga Canyon [in preparation for when he's gonna need to "save his family" for that fateful day when the garbage disposal doesn't work])...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/forget-hugh-hendry-ashton-kutcher-recommends-you-panic-and-prepare-apocalpyse
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/forget-hugh-hendry-ashton-kutcher-recommends-you-panic-and-prepare-apocalpyse
CV has one final... "perplexing" question (to AK)... When was it... EXACTLY... That you made the jump from "Hope & Change" to "TEOTWAWKI"?...
Expect to see Ashton Kucher, coming soon, to the Home Shopping Network to hawk his new line of stationary bicycle power generated kitchen garbage disposals... And starring in his upcoming movie...
"Dude, where's my composter"?
155 comments:
High of 47 here today. Break out the suntan lotion!
@BinT
What a coincidence!
47 matches what Obama carded on the FRONT 9...
But I think he "signed" for a 36
http://www.dixon.com.au/Knowledge-Centre/article2/17-09-10/Residential_property_your_SMSF.aspx
Friday, 17 September 2010
Purchasing residential property within your SMSF can be an effective way to increase the value of your retirement savings. Firstly, the maximum tax rate your SMSF will pay on rental income is 15%. Secondly, residential property generally returns around 10.3% pa, comprising approximately 3.5% net income and 6.8% capital growth.
"The merits of investing in residential property are compelling. Since March 2002, residential property values in Australia have increased by an average of 9.38% each year. This figure compares favourably to the growth in equities, which over the same period have grown by an average of 7.15% each year. The growth of each asset class is depicted in the graph below:"
...CV, you'll be pleased to know that Down Under there is still bookoodles of money to be made in real estate as you look forward to your golden years...
...If I could only find that phone number...
Our low was 61 this morning
Nice winter, so far...
Foghorn
JBTFDuplex...
@BinT (8:22)
Another fallacy...
Even if there was still money to be made, notothing is worth anything without considering the FOREX implications, taxes, and transaction costs...
Most of the $$ I made in Italy (in real estate), was simply because I bought in Lira (which was .79 eurocents to the dollar), and sold at 1.35...
Problem is... now I'm holding all these worthless FRN's...
Trying to get them changed into lumber, copper, containers, pipes, engines, tools, tractors, & cement as quickly as possible...
one for McB,
THE MOON SUN HYPOTHESIS - BACKGROUND
In 1984, I read with great interest David Williams’ book Financial Astrology. It proved highly stimulating and set me on a course of studying the business cycle. After much research, Williams’ work was found to be invalid. Although fascinating, the larger planets in the solar system could not be correlated with the timing of major financial crises or the business cycle generally. Thus, Williams' findings were negated as having any practical use in market forecasting. However, what did stand out was his coverage of J M Funk’s 56 year panic cycle. This consisted of three sequences, in which major US financial crises happened every 56 years. In the 100 years to 1930, these three sequences contained 6 years, in which occurred five of the worst panics in US economic history - 1837, 1857, 1873, 1893 & 1929. Truly amazing! Ensuing assessments found that financial distress occurred quite regularly in grid patterns based on multiples of 9 and 56 years.
Although a 9/56 year panic cycle was clearly evident, a causal factor precipitating this repetitive cycle could not be readily established. Major crashes and panics took place every 56 years - but why???? Traditional astrology was the initial area favoured, but it offered no satisfaction. No relationships could be proven between the planets and the 9/56 year panic cycle. Numerous other traditional factors were considered, such as sunspots and eclipses (as distinct from eclipse cycles), but these were equally unsuccessful. Finally, I noticed that, on the same date every 56 years, the Moon’s north node was sited only three degrees further clockwise on the ecliptical circle. This was very intriguing and ultimately proved to be a gold mine for further analysis. Follow up research established numerous Moon Sun correlates with the 9/56 year cycle, major financial upheavals and peaks/toughs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index.
The basic hypothesis is that the Moon and Sun activate human physiological cycles (there are numerous scientific studies to support this), which influence the mass mood and thus drive financial activity. The mass mood of a population is postulated to oscillate between optimism (a rising market) and fear (a falling market) in accordance with Moon Sun cycles...
http://www.davidmcminn.com/
AAIP
one for McB,
THE MOON SUN HYPOTHESIS - BACKGROUND
In 1984, I read with great interest David Williams’ book Financial Astrology. It proved highly stimulating and set me on a course of studying the business cycle. After much research, Williams’ work was found to be invalid. Although fascinating, the larger planets in the solar system could not be correlated with the timing of major financial crises or the business cycle generally. Thus, Williams' findings were negated as having any practical use in market forecasting. However, what did stand out was his coverage of J M Funk’s 56 year panic cycle. This consisted of three sequences, in which major US financial crises happened every 56 years. In the 100 years to 1930, these three sequences contained 6 years, in which occurred five of the worst panics in US economic history - 1837, 1857, 1873, 1893 & 1929. Truly amazing! Ensuing assessments found that financial distress occurred quite regularly in grid patterns based on multiples of 9 and 56 years.
Although a 9/56 year panic cycle was clearly evident,...
...
The basic hypothesis is that the Moon and Sun activate human physiological cycles (there are numerous scientific studies to support this), which influence the mass mood and thus drive financial activity. The mass mood of a population is postulated to oscillate between optimism (a rising market) and fear (a falling market) in accordance with Moon Sun cycles...
http://www.davidmcminn.com/
AAIP
http://www.cycles.cc/
http://www.davidmcminn.com/pages/links.htm
y mas, para otros..
ibid.
@AAIP
so does that mean I should JBTFD? :-)
AAIP,
thanks for that, interesting stuff! I'm going to dig through that stuff today.
I really enjoyed that hurdler video, funny stuff there.
as for Obama and golf, I'm pretty sure he's played every other week since becoming president. wonder what it's like to have that much free time
claims way down today
morning thought, train your mind to think in a non-linear fashion
@ben22
"train" (your mind), and "non-linear" don't often collide in the same sentence...
But I'm open to your creative Amtrak configuration...
that wasn't really in relation to the way rails are laid.....
I'm sure if you think long enough you'll know what I'm talking about.
What I'm "thinking" is that if the S&P keeps levitating... I'm about to grab hold of the 3rd rail
go for it.
of course, at this stage I'd rather be long in individual names than the index because what does the index offer you?, from a wave perspective it's most likely we are either in a wave 5 of C or an E wave on the S&P so the S&P could top out fairly quickly and may not get to 1300+ before a more serious correction.
Things to do while kicking ass on the golf course in Hawaii on vacation...
Obama bypasses Senate to name new envoys
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_obama_envoys
WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama has bypassed the Senate and directly appointed four new U.S. ambassadors whose nominations had been stalled or blocked by lawmakers for months.
The White House announced Wednesday that Obama would use his power to make recess appointments to fill envoy posts to Azerbaijan, Syria and NATO allies Turkey and the Czech Republic.
@ben22
How can we JBTF if there's no D?
GOOG $600 =
GOOG $600 =
http://theennuilife.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/a-12.jpg
Johnny really has been sending FXI and EWZ parabolic this week. I wonder what happens when the pros return to office next week. Yes, I wonder...
Johnny likes "the Olympics"
aaahh! I am completely creeped out by that creepy pledge! and, late to the table.. need to catch up.. i simply could not understand if the owl was telling me to get up or stay in bed.. such a pleasant sound, it didn't really matter..
morning!
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=LC
Cattle, Feed Animals, in general, are going to continue climbing in Price..
also, as an aside, watch, to see, 'Latino' & 'SE Asian' Recipes become more popular (as they typically use less, and less expensive, cuts of Meats)
AAIP
@karen
Speaking of "owls"... This one ALMOST made the cut on todays thread topic...
http://www.motifake.com/image/demotivational-poster/small/1002/extenze-owl-editon-zelda-link-funny-owl-annoying-pedophilism-demotivational-poster-1266707120.png
This was my "all time" favorite tho...
http://static.funnyjunk.com/pictures/12659813016280.jpg
Maybe I'll have to do a "the making of..." video...
Now we know what Andy T was up to in Vegas the other week...
Bellagio nixing $25,000 chip after casino heist
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_bellagio_hold_up
CV, stop it!! i've never heard of that stuff.. still laughing over the hurdler.
but ever so humiliated i was duped into voting for Obama..
Oh, Karen! Say it ain't so!
(But you still got pretty feet!)
and cursing myself for giving away a huge copper box, which is now worth it's weight in gold, i mean copper!!
A girl should never,ever give away her box.
Bruce, as a registered republican who voted for Ron Paul in the primary, there was no I was going to vote for Sarah Palin..
As a matter of fact, anyone that voted for Palin or Obama should probably be banned from this blog.. or at least declare themselves so we know how stupid they are.. or were.
Time to "old school" it with Tinker Toys & Lincoln logs...
Nintendo issues age warning on its 3D games
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/entertainmentjapangame3dnintendo
CV.. great link on the Bellagio!!! i love it.. forwarded it to my neighbors.. who were in that business for years.. but, mostly for the statement, "The bottom line is that they're not money."
IBM.. is that a breakout yesterday? or a dbl top.. this market is the worst.. i'm totally buying into the sunspot theory.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40850388
“A lot of investors would rather have the solid assets of a bank backing their bonds than the promise of a sovereign with weak finances,” said Ted Lord, head of European covered bonds at Barclays Capital.
Covered bonds have proved particularly attractive to investors worried about changes to bank resolution regimes in Europe.
Germany passed a law in November that will force bondholders to take losses if a bank fails – but this does not include covered bonds. Other countries are expected to follow suit."
...The article states that this is coming to 'Merica this next year. (Probably!)
Chicago manufacturing gauge leaps in December
10:36 AM ET 12/30/10 | Marketwatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A barometer of manufacturing conditions in the Chicago region jumped in December to its best level in more than 22 years.
The Chicago PMI rose to 68.6 in December from 62.5 in November, marking the 15th straight month that the gauge was over the 50 level indicating economic expansion and well above the 61 reading that economists polled by MarketWatch expected for December.
To put December's report into context, the median showing of the Chicago report between 1970 and 2009 was 55.1.
The survey of purchasing managers showed the highest production levels since October 2004, new orders at their highest levels since 2005, the best employment levels in more than five years and the highest prices paid since July 2008.
The national Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing poll is due for release Monday, and the national gauge isn't expected to be nearly as ebullient, with economists expecting that report to be virtually unchanged at 56.5.
"One thing to note is that the Chicago region is very sensitive to autos and perhaps the success of the recent [General Motors] IPO is getting purchasing managers across the region increasingly bulled up. Nevertheless, business activity across the region is expanding briskly," said Neil Dutta, economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Economists put a positive gloss on the data released Thursday, also showing weekly jobless claims below 400,000 and a 3.5% improvement in pending home sales in November.
"Three good pieces of economic news today -- lower jobless claims, higher Chicago manufacturing, higher pending home sales -- all suggest better economic growth in 2011," said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo.
@karen (10:23)
"ever so humiliated i was duped into voting for Obama..."
That's OK... It takes a solid force field to avoid getting put under a spell by the magic pixie dust...
The pixie dust never worked on CV...
I'm happy to report also that the "W" magic pixie dust didn't cause me to pull the wrong levers either...
Neither did the GORE, THE MCCAIN, THE DOLE, THE "I VOTED FOR IT BEFORE I VOTED AGAINST IT", & THE "I DIDN'T INHALE BEFORE I DIDN"T HAVE SEXUAL RELATIONS WITH THAT WOMAN...
Last "Prez" I voted for was Reagan... Tho, in retrospect, I might have been a little naive...
But those were my days of youthful exuberance when I believed that it ACTUALLY DID come down to a choice between two...
And the "alternatives" were Carter & Mondale...
---
So now that we've gotten through Augustus, Tiberius, Caligula, Claudius, & Nero (present)...
I suppose we have...
Galba, Otho, Vitellus, Vespasian, Titus, & Domitian on tap...
@karen
"As a matter of fact, anyone that voted for Palin or Obama should probably be banned from this blog.. or at least declare themselves so we know how stupid they are.. or were..."
No one will ever be banned from this blog for saying anything... ETHNIC CLEANSING is policy for other blogs...
I'd rather think of this blog as "Ellis Island"... (or - "Gilligan's Island" on some days)...
You can be either Ginger or Mary Ann (your choice)...
But hint: Most guys will tell you they dig "Mary Ann"...
FWIW...
Permabull ROBO TRADER (from Zero Hedge) was posting some comments today and yesterday that were uncharacteristicly 'bearish'...
Morning all, there are some interesting things happening, even at the quietest moments. The ONE TRADE is alive and well today with DXY below 80, and there is a possibility that they might take it down to 78 again to generate one last surge for the year before Monday's fund flows.
Here is a list of HAVENS/ALTERNATE INVESTMENTS that are making new highs or looking very toppy/double toppy:
Swissy
Yen
Aussie
Caddy
Gold
Silver
Copper
Miners
Rare Earth Stocks
NFLX
Pets.com
So, take your pick. I think we have reached the stage where the next upward move in DXY could be quite violent, because there are so many other investment classes leveraged against it that will have to be unwound at the same time. We like UUP and that other old chestnut CASH as we go into the Jan 5 ADP and Jan 7 NFP data combo. Remember they don't have to be great to begin the unwind, just reasonable.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/30/dont-believe-the-rosy-forecasts/
Friedman's lesson isn't that forecasting is impossible, but that the best prediction is usually the basic assumption that prices and growth rates will go back to their historic averages, or in economic parlance, "revert to the mean." What's difficult is guessing when that will happen. Indeed, the timing is truly unpredictable. But it invariably does happen.
http://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-hundreds-of-nyc-sanitation-workers-who-earn-over-100000-2010-12
When you think about the earnings of Wall Street sell-siders who also shovel shit all day, it puts sanitation workers in perspective.
Everyone here is familiar with the demographic time-bomb embodied by the Boomers, born 1946 onwards and retiring 2011 onwards. Here is a nice reminder of some salient facts:
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/in-2011-the-baby-boomers-start-to-turn-65-16-statistics-about-the-coming-retirement-crisis-that-will-drop-your-jaw
Remember the very BEST outcome from this would be a Japanese-style lost decade or two. BTW, Japan may have a break out year in 2011, b/c they are finally very close to a bond market break that will drive a currency depreciation and inflation. JGBs will not be the first target of global bond vigilantes, but they will be on the lost for 2011.
This will finally drive investors out of JGBs and into equities, but if you do go long the EWJ make sure to hedge the currency risk first, and WAIT for one of the inevitable global sell-offs before jumping in.
"How about stocks? The best measure of the whether stocks are cheap or expensive is the price earnings formula devised by Yale economist Robert Shiller, which divides the current S&P price by a ten-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings. By smoothing earnings, Shiller avoids the error of judging that equities are cheap when profits are unusually high, as they are today.
Today, the Shiller PE is a lofty 22.7 -- that's more than 40% higher than its long-term average of 16. Indeed, stocks could keep rising for months or even longer. But that would make them simply more overvalued than they are today. In other words, a Friedmanesque reversion to the mean does not signal a rise in equity prices at all, but a sharp drop. The only question is when it will happen."
..From Karen's post above..reading this it sounds Hussmanish....don't you think?
CV (10:48) ""As a matter of fact, anyone that voted for Palin or Obama should probably be banned from this blog.. or at least declare themselves so we know how stupid they are.. or were...""
Ooooo You are a poopy head, there I said it -Pthththththt
Yea they should be banned from this blog because they were not smart enough to vote for me in the first place. Besides I have prettier feet then Karen.
Oh yea did I mention you are a poopy head.
And remember in 2012 Vote for me, vote early and vote often.
not sure if this was posted already:
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/12/30/year-end-investor-letter-a-wall-street-parody/
B in T:
The venerable yield watch method is appropriate here.
5y yields higher than SPY and 10y yield higher than DIA.
GLD, SLV and JJC still yielding zero, along with most NAZ stocks.
Sooner or later this matters.
How many people wish there was a triple inverse rare earth miner ETF?
Look for a surge in the "rare element" Dumpinum...
as we go into the Jan 5 ADP and Jan 7 NFP data combo
You mean... "The most important ADP/NFP of all time?"
Traders are loading up on shares of "unobtanium"
"as we go into the Jan 5 ADP and Jan 7 NFP data combo"
Absolutely the most important ADP/NFP of all time, just like the last one. Lest you dissolve in a fit of giggles, this one is the December number and therefore includes a lot of the retail hiring.
The first reason we think this is important is b/c once we return to GHOST MALLS in Jan, some of that hiring will be unwound, and so the Jan and Feb jobs picture may not look so pretty.
The second reason we think this is important is that this may lead to some more bond dumpage going into the Jan 12 and 13 auctions of 10y and 30y and present us with the high yield on TNX and TYX for Q1, and a very nice entry point into USTs, before Bwarney Fwank points out that Fweddie Mac is insolvent and we have another FWASH CWASH.
"Japan may have a break out year in 2011, b/c they are finally very close to a bond market break that will drive a currency depreciation and inflation..."
Japanese nickles bitchez!
@Anon
Obama & Bwaney Fwank are silently praying for a killer snowstorm so there will be something to blame everything on...
The precise meterological explanation will be that Bush caused the snowstorm...
Quick! Re-fi now or be priced out forever!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/486-fannie-30-year-fixed-mortgage-back-7-month-highs
@karen (11:35)
Well when they finally ask the NYC sanitation workers to take a modest pay cut, to say $99,000 a year...
Expect a "Greek" type reaction...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fcodegghjPA
Bwarney Fwank wiww be seen as one of the main viwwains on the Hiww when the histowy of this pewiod is finawwy witten.
There are so many Twojan horses when you look carefuwwy.
I like doing that, I don't know why.
The Swissy... beneficiary of two weak currencies in 2010.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FXF:US
The yen... is that a double top or are you just pleased to see me?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FXY:US
The Aussie... irrational exuberance in the face of a housing slump.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FXF:US
Sorry FXA for the Aussie, lazy cut and paster...
carleygarner
From our softs broker ~ I have never seen this big of a drop in sugar...ever
sugar down 10.4%
It is beginning.... profit taking.... one at a time to the chopping block or the whole complex all at once next week?
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/12/30/justice-tells-regulators-to-beef-up-derivatives-rules/
Justice’s concerns center on two proposals released by the C.F.T.C. and S.E.C. in October, which aim to curb Wall Street’s influence over the $600 trillion derivatives market.
Banks now hold $234 trillion of the insurance-like contracts, which derive their value from another asset, such as a foreign exchange rate or a package of mortgages. Four of the nation’s largest financial institutions — JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs — account for more than 90 percent of the banking industry’s activity in derivatives, according to a report this month by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
Under the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, companies will be required to trade credit default swaps and other derivatives through regulated exchanges or so-called swap execution facilities.
The C.F.T.C. proposal, part of the Dodd-Frank law, would prevent a bank or financial firm from controlling more than 20 percent of any one derivatives exchange or execution facility.
That is a start, Justice said, but the proposal could still could be “preserving the opportunity” for a few banks to get together and accumulate a majority stake in the exchange.
Christine Varney, the head of the Justice Department’s antitrust division, likened this situation to “three or five largest airlines controlling all landing rights at every U.S. airport.” In the derivatives world, such concentration translates to higher trading costs, outdated data and less transparency in the market, the letter said.
I think I'll go hunting for bearish rising wedges.. as i believe i see one in crude oil.. and since it's all one trade... and we know volumes have been decreasing.. "A bearish rising wedge is a technical pattern that is formed as a stock price moves higher on decreasing volume, as the daily trading range becomes more and more narrow."
today's move in copper was totally absurd.. at least when viewed in JJC..
some of these wedges already seem to have broken down, aapl for instance..
d*mn it is so cold in my room (56) i may have to take a hot shower as i can hardly type and am shivering. i gotta kill those silver fishies, however.
Here is another top:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DBA:US
It looks like the softs are going to lead this meltdown. Copper hasn't got the message yet. It's up "on China".
This could actually be a lot of fun to watch.
Anyone seen Beeks?
Every time we think of K having a hot shower we have to take a cold shower. HYG 90.11 for those keeping score at home...
JT Smith/Aristar Funding re pending home sales: HEADLINE UP 3.5% UNADJUSTED ACTUAL CONTRACTS SIGNED DOWN 9.3%
odds are not in my favour for a gift box from journelle.. tho i went ahead and put 3 items in my shopping cart this morning.. : (
Loads of contracts cancelled when mortgage rates spiked.
Game over until Spring.
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/12/every-year-it-is-something-this-year.html
This year it is rare earths..
Ashraf Laidi
US foreclosures back up in Q3 http://bit.ly/hdx8Iv when blocked 4closures go thru in Q1, supply rebound @ odds w/ other macro data
New blog post: This about sums it up... http://www.forexlive.com/156296/all/this-about-sums-it-up-2
.. it's all a lot of oysters and no pearls...
Or Maybe This One…
http://www.forexlive.com/156298/all/or-maybe-this-one
FOR the lovelorn, the new year can be an unhappy time, as they cast envious glances in the direction of lovey-dovey couples at the season’s parties. For online-dating agencies, it is a golden opportunity, as people who have spent the holidays ruminating over unsatisfactory or non-existent love lives log on in their thousands, hoping to find romance—ideally before February 14th. “The period between New Year’s Day and Valentine’s Day is our busiest six weeks of the year,” explains Sam Yagan, the boss of OkCupid, a big American dating site.
http://www.economist.com/node/17797424?story_id=17797424&fsrc=scn/tw/te/rss/pe
there is no reason for no volatility, no volume market day to have gone so quickly other than that my life is flashing by before my eyes..
someone make it stop, please!
silverfish nymphs (and pobably adulsts as well) are killed by sub-freezing temps, but adults will just go dormant @ 56 deg, only to revive once temps warm again.
http://tinypic.com/r/2ns0sqa/7
@karen (1:38)
This next comment about sums it up...
.
minus the "."
15 min charts seem to be indicating some weakness into the close.. or perhaps that is my mind's eye.. jjc and fxa back toward highs of day.. so clearly i'm wrong about a last hour sell off.
wish I-Man was here to curse the dollar or the aussie.. either one would work for me.
Don't curse me, I am going to make a big comeback in 2011.
Besides we have a strong BUCKY policy.
Tiny Tim always says so, must be true, right?
BUCKY is headed UUP some time very soon.
I am going to collapse faster than the Australian cricket team.
Man, that Ashton Kutcher video was a bit creepy....
We pulled into Tyranny a few years ago, but nobody noticed.
Quiet Coup.
CV, you don't want to see this on.. New blog post: Who is Ron Paul?
http://www.forexlive.com/156306/all/who-is-ron-paul
a very subtle h&s on 3 day 15 min gld
UUP march 24 calls looking worth a throw...
a lot to pick through here, and some of it we already know, but I generally like a lot of the pieces in this...
---
"As I read stories recently about China reducing supplies for rare earths, I watched oil and grains skyrocket to new highs I couldn’t help but think to myself: “we are going back to real trade again.” What I mean is that the prices for all the real “stuff” that at the end of the day makes the world go round are still in the early stages of being revalued to a realistic level. We want China’s rare earths, they want our grains. Ok, we can probably make a deal there. Despite what they may say publicly no one wants dollars and neither should you. We are still in the middle of a secular bull market in commodities. In times like these real assets that were grossly undervalued relative to financial assets in the prior secular bull become revalued. Money also becomes revalued. We are still working off the bubble in financial assets and the bubble in fiat currencies (especially the dollar) that popped in 2000. It will be over when the Dow Industrials = the price of gold wherever that may be. It is still 8:1. It reached about 1:1 in both the 1930s and the late 1970s. In terms of gold the S&P500 was down 12% this year. Pathetic.
All of the phony aggregate demand that has been created has now led to the surging commodity prices we are witnessing at the moment. This is a very important signal that must not be ignored. Just as the surge in late 2007-mid 2008 was a huge warning of things to come. It is telling us the current global economic model of GDP growth at all costs is failing. It is telling us we are using up all of the world’s resources without any understanding of sustainable development. The U.S. government is actually encouraging people to buy homes and spend money on trinkets made abroad rather than figure out new sources of energy. We had our window to show real leadership and make the tough decisions and we failed miserably. The Kondratieff winter is knocking on our door and will blow in with reckless abandon in 2011/2012.
This is not to say I am bearish on mankind or the world 10-20 years from now. I am not. I think once we finish the next 5-10 years which could be very, very difficult we can emerge into a New Renaissance. We just need to clean out the trash first. That means the current group of political and economic leaders that have infected the global economy. My advice remains the same. You must accept the fact that the current model has failed and will be replaced. This is why I am so bearish on retail. The business model for too many of them is based on sourcing cheap goods abroad and selling them here. Those days are over. They are over because of wage and other inflation in China and the business model will also be slammed by the cost of shipping things once oil breaches $100/b again, which I expect in early 2011. Precious metals, agriculture and oil remain my favorite themes."
this fast day has now turned torturously slow..
Has anything happened worthwhile today? I see DXY is down and yields are up, AUDJPY down while EURJPY is up. Sugar getting smacked and oil is down. Enlighten me.
the indices are green.. AR.. what else?
Just looked at SPX. YGTBFKM...
Georgia Legislator's Bill Would Require Taxes Be Paid In Gold And Silver
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/30/georgia-bill-gold-and-silver_n_802618.html
worth a skim i guess: http://pragcap.com/macro-thoughts
CV.. the absurdity of that.. seriously.. where is my dip!!! i want it now, laughing.
GovMo hit a high today.. what an upset.
I'm going to put up a SPY chart with some Brian Sack prints...
It may explain this little quirky move here...
Hold on a sec...
someone whispered in my ear today
LEAPS ben
LEAPS
new chart in thread
I forgot to mention this morning that I threw up in my mouth a little bit when I watched the Nightmare on Rodeo Drive (the AK video in the thread)
thankfully I had some lucky charms around to wash that away.
then I blasted this on my stereo:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0y-7fl1nJfw
Never mind LEAPS.
Grab Ye Trustye Wyddowemakker
CV, showing me that chart doesn't make it any better. it's always set up in the ah! i don't want to play anymore.
Is 2011 a leap year?
Gotta go check...
@karen
well AT LEAST I can say (with the chart) is that I know I'm playing against a guy that's hiding an ACE up his sleeve...
Keeps me from going "all in"
Paulsen sells home for $1m less than he paid according to this article.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN3011337120101230
Paulson, excuse me.
HYG 90.12 for those who are following the wager.
I'm actually kind of relieved that most of this week has been accomplished without an equity ramp...
The 'feeling' that I'm getting right now has a little to do with tax selling...
Who is holding on to any losses (or 'needs' to sell anything), because it's been a straight ramp job since July...
Could it be that IN LIEU of the usual MOMO Month beginning next week, we get some portfolio dumping (sold to the MOMO's who have to buy)?
Push forward & bother about capital gains in 2012...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cR0ndO7Tfac&feature=related
Here's something we can wager on in 2011:
http://www.reuters.com/news/video/story?videoId=163940796&videoChannel=2602
LOL.
anon @ 4:07.. that happened so so so long ago, rolling my eyes.. what is the wager then?
Gotta go peeps...
Be back tomorrow for the final post of 2010...
HYG, can't believe i watched that, rolling my eyes, and shutting down my laptop!
I bet you are all agog for the Bond Report after that thriller.
Why doesn't someone to do a Commodity Report? I mean with 10% daily Pops and Drops it's a lot more entertaining than Bonds.
Although less nutritious...
I think there are some HYG imposters today...
The final TICK reading was -631. Someone waited until the close to make a run for it.
I thought we were playing 3 degrees to AK. I believe there will be no award, but I don't really remember the bet either.
And I am the original imposter.
We have a guest reporter on bonds today. Hit it, Marc:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-30/faber-says-long-term-u-s-treasuries-are-suicidal-investment.html
"US Trezharhee bondz are a soo-ee-cidell infestment. Ze dollahr vill bekum vurthlezz. The Feddderralll Reserf vill bankrupt ze countree..."
Thanks Marc, so, you're bearish Treasuries then?
"Zey are sertifikitz of konfiskayshun. You vill be doomed."
Looks like we are arriving at another Death of Treasuries™ moment fairly soon. Get ready to buy....
Faber,
I like the guy, been bearish on govvies for yearzzzzz....and, well, wrong.
sell that inflation trade marcky marc.
Hey, it's the end of the year - and we encourage a diversity of views.
Besides, we enjoy doing the accent.
A Gary Shilling v Marc Faber smackdown would be fun.
Peter Schiff v Mish as the undercard.
They are all smart but it is all in the timing.
well, for every dollar lost shorting govies he probably made $4 on gold and silver, he's been a super bull on those for just as long as he's been bearish govvies.
can't get em all right
It wil not be long before we change trains again.
If you ride the NYC subway to Herald Square, you can change from the R train to the D train. Nowhere else. Not a lot of people know that.
So now you know where we will be when we change trains.
Herald Square. 4.00% TNX. Pick your poison.
I forgot until Karen brought up margin yesterday, a few days before the April top this year that guy had written that article advising for young people to buy stocks on margin.
that was pretty funny by May 6. wonder how many learned what a margin call was.
I think if you are Marc Faber, Jim Rogers and Peter Schiff you have basically only one shtick. Hard assets, commodities, gold.
These guys don't change their shtick b/c it would confuse the punters and the media wouldn't know what slot to use them in.
Similar with Gary Shilling, Rosie and the hard core deflationists.
Recency bias will be slaughtering another group of sacrifices very soon, an age-old ritual at the altar of mean reversion.
We look forward to the bond report because it is like Freud used to think about dreams. It gives us insight into the jumbled mess that is Leftback's psyche...
...Scary when you think in these terms, ain't it?
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