Weekend Edition - Week 12 NCAA Picks & Week 11 NFL Picks

CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals (all "ATS" [against the spread])

2010 NCAA Picks (aggregate): 44-31-2

2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +1

NCAA 2010 Wager Total: (-$160)* (do as I "say" not as I do - the REDUX)

---

NFL Picks (aggregate): 75-62-5

NFL (unit picks differential): +22

NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+1,740)

Gameday/week writeup...and so... the "acne faced", months removed from senior prom, POINT SHAVING saga continues... Impossible to actually BET on these games (unless you fancy yourself as a Viking God, betting with play $$ and weilding a blunt tool... Me?... Instead I like losing money to guys who smell like aftershave mixed with a Philly Cheesesteak & are busy fitting Jim Tressel for cement shoes if the Ohio State line doesn't come out just right... Nevertheless... I dutifully present my humble opinions & vouch for my misgivings...

I'm taking credit for my midweek misses picks (just as I took credit for my LOSS in the NFL [with Miami])... Andy & Amen are privy to these midweek picks because the game write-up thread is in the queue usually by Wednesday... Anyway, it's a simple formula that I've told u about all year long... Take midweek live home dogs (Akron & UNLV qualified)... Take Boise State & TCU every week... You won't win every one, but you're likely to stay ahead of the vig...

WEEK 12 NCAA PICKS (pick in BOLD CAPS)

Miami (Ohio) at AKRON (+10) - 1 unit (from Wednesday Night)
Miami (OH) 19 - Akron 14 (+$100) - Correct
Air Force at UNLV (+19) - 1 unit (from Thursday Night)
Air Force 35 - UNLV 20 (+$100) - Correct
Fresno State at BOISE STATE (-30.5) - 1 unit (from Friday Night)
Boise State 51 - Fresno State 0 - (+$100) - Correct

Tennessee at VANDERBILT (+9) - 1 unit
Tennessee 24 - Vanderbilt 10 - (-$110) - Incorrect
Penn State at INDIANA (+11) - 1 unit
Penn State 41 - Indiana 24 - (-$110) - Incorrect

Additional games of note (no "unit" plays) - [results] Green = correct/Red = incorrect: CV would favor: Michigan State, Iowa State, Rice, Stanford, Army, Hawaii

Gameday thoughts here...
No different from last week... I stayed on the Boise State train (but you missed that train because they won 51-0 last night)... Remember... HAL computers run the bulllsh** BCS... So, it's a good time of the year to start looking at "bowl eligible" teams (who are playing just a little harder)... A greedy NCAA athletic director needs 6 wins to be qualified for a bowl (which means $$ for the school if they get in one - even if it's just called the "weed eater", the "pizza pizza", or the "muffler" bowl [sponsors])...

I'm taking Vandy (just to piss I-Man off for the last time since he's ready to quit all blogs)... I'm going AGAINST Penn State just to piss ben off (and put the HEX on the Bo Jacksons) :-)...

Note: CV is 0-4 on picking Penn State games this year, so FADE MY PICK whatever you do... I've stayed away from "Volunteer" work (except for the volunteer work I do in publishing this blog - so we'll see if "fading" those Volunteers actually makes me $$)... Socioeconomic irony bitchez! :-)

Results:

Week 11 NCAA Picks (ATS): 6-5-0

Week 11 unit pick differential: +1

Week 11 wager total: (+$80)

---

NFL Preview: Game Write-up for NFL to be posted before Sunday kickoff

Week11 Injury Report (for FANTASY PLAYERS):

BYE WEEK

(no more fucking BYE WEEKS - get back to work you slaves! - and NEXT YEAR start "entertaining" us ROMANS for 18 weeks instead of 16... Yeah! You heard me! It's tough to handle the idea of having two less weeks to bet on - C'MON MAN)... When we get to an 18 game schedule, look for Obama to start advocating a law that REQUIRES sportsbooks be built all around the country... Need those revenues... You know... for "education", and "better schools"... The KIDS! He believes the children (and their iPhones are our future)... "Teach them well and let them lead the way... Show them all the beauty they possess inside"... Whitney Houston Brown will sing you the rest as soon as she puts down her crack pipe...

THURSDAY GAME

Chicago Bears (6-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-4) (8:20 EST - NFL Network)

Line: Dolphins by 1.5
CV took: Dolphins  - (3 units)
Chicago Bears 16 - Miami Dolphins 0 - (-$330) - Incorrect

The (Mark) "Duper" Bowl

EARLY SUNDAY GAMES

DE RAIDERS! (5-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) (1:00 EST)

Line: Steelers by 7.5

Last week against the 29th ranked defense (Patriots), the Steelers O-Line couldn't block anyone... Granted, they were playing on a short week, but that MNF game against the Bengals cost them Willie Colon, & Max Starks... Chris Kemoeatu (G) will also be missing his 2nd game here so I can't really see Rashard Mendenhall getting much room to run... The Patriots got to Ben Rothleisberger 5 times, and the Raiders are tied for 2nd in the NFL with 27 sacks... Hines Ward has a concussion, and they're even auditioning a new field goal kicker...

Needless to say, the fortunes of the steelers are spiraling downwards quickly... OTOH, the Raiders have been playing brilliantly of recent... McFadden is the NFL rushing leader, and if the Raiders can keep the game manageable with 3rd & shorts, it'll negate the Steelers most potent weapon (which is their pass rush)...

Still... I don't trust Jason Campbell... He's been playing well lately, but is still an inconsistent... I'm still remembering the November 2008 game vs. the Steelers (in DC) on the eve of election day... The Steelers bitch slapped him on that night, and soon thereafter, Campbell was benched, and shuffled out of DC...

I'll go with the RAIDERS here for the possible upset, but can't lay more than (1 unit) on the outcome...

 Houston Texans (4-5) at J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets (7-2) (1:00 EST)

Line: Jets by 7

The Texans have been abysmal versus Rex Ryan as of recent (both versus the Ravens & Jets)... But you gotta think that Ryan was playing with a stacked deck (a defense which can create havoc against a pass happy team with no running game)... The Texans are actually much different this year (as Matt Schaub & Andre Johnson fantasy owners knowby now)... They like to pound the rock with Arian Foster... The Jets have been 'shakier' stopping the run than most would expect... Last week, Peyton Hillis ran all over them, and they have surrendered yards and first downs to other quality backs this year as well...

While the Texans defense sucks, the Jets aren't interested in "flashy" offensive propositions... I probably have more confidence in the Jets offense to move the ball against the Texans defense than vice versa... Darelle Revis will erase Andre Johnson, so this could end up a low scoring affair...

With that in mind, I like to take a team with "a touchdown" in points... Houston has failed to cover for 5 straight games... But the longer that goes on, the more it "favors" them in terms of taking them in a betting proposition... You'd have to be worried if they were a sorry team facing a 14 point line... 7 points makes them a 4 point dog on a neutral field (probably about right vs. Jets)... Basically that's saying "they're NOT a sorry team... They NEED a win here... Jets need to manage a game... Side with the points... TEXANS for (4 units)...

Carolina Panthers (1-8) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3) (1:00 EST)

Line: Ravens by 11

What worries me most here is the pointspread... The Ravens should be able to "name the score" here... 11 points? Carolina is down to auditioning 3rd string QB's... They're about to start some guy that was stocking shelves and watching games on TV two weeks ago... Ravens are coming off a tough loss at Atlanta that they lost in the last 50 seconds (Atlanta is 18-1 at home as of recent)... What's "worse" is they lost the game on two blown calls (both were "admitted" to be blown calls after the game by the refs and players involved)... One went for a TD, the other kept alive a drive on 3rd down that led to a score... But the Ravens are on 10 days of rest here...

Again... Why the short line? The Panthers, besides the QB problems, lost their left tackle Jeff Otah, and their first 3 backs...

I'm not going to noodle on this much more... I'll go with the RAVENS, but only for (1 unit) because the line is fishy...

Washington Redskins (4-5) at Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks (5-4) (1:00 EST)

Line: Flaming Thumbtacks by 7

Anybody that saw the Redskins versus the Eagles on Monday Night Football must be wondering if they'll even win another game this year... It's still bothering me that Michael Vick is getting all this glory because the Redskins flat out played horrible... They played well for a few series (when they were totally embarassed and out of it), but then folded again...

It shouldn't be a surprise... They were only pegged to win 4-5 games this year, and have already accomplished that... The TITANS on the other hand played poorly in Miami last week, but still find themselves in contention... They still have all their important games in front of them (including 2 games with the Colts)... I think they can get better here utilizing Randy Moss to set up opportunities for Chris Johnson...

While I'm worried that the Titans might be in "look ahead" mode, it's usually a good idea to fade a team that gets schellacked on Monday Night Football... The Redskins have issues which may not be resolved in this quick of a turnaround... THUMBTACKS for (1 unit)...

Detroit Lions (2-7) at Dallas Cowboys (2-7) (1:00 EST)

Line: Cowboys by 6.5

Both of these teams are the traditional Thanksgiving Day hosts... It's kind of funny and odd that they're facing each other here... In any case, that's not really important, but it does give me an excuse to put up the classic Madden TURDUCKEN spoof...

The Cowboys seemed to play more inspired playing under Jason Garrett last week vs. the Giants, while the Lions lost their 24th straight road game to the winless Bills... How can anyone sensibly take the Lions until they get off that schnide... They will, eventually, but this may not be the spot to do it (against a team that is clearly in personnel evaluation mode)...

One thing that would worry me about blindly fading the Lions here would be the fact that despite the impressive win vs. the Giants last week, the G-Men still managed to put up 450 yards of offense... I hate the prospect of teams being able to "score at will" (because that always leaves open the infamous "back door cover" on a 6.5 point line... I'll take the COWBOYS for (0 units)...

Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-6) (1:00 EST)

Line: Packers by 3

So here we go... This should be the last time Brett Favre plays against the Packers... And could be "Chilly's" last game (if the Vikings lose)... I like the idea of poetic justice... Not that Favre or Chilly are bad people (I actually basically like Brett Favre), but this circus had gone on long enough...

Favre had his chance last season to walk away a champion... He didn't get it done (in the end), but he went far enough... This "coming back" for a final FINAL chance was bad by design...

I kind of get a feeling sometimes, that karma plays a role in creating ironic circumstances to underscore points that humans ignore, or neglect on their own... The universe WANTS you to make the right decisions... If you fail to do that, it will conjure up some ridiculous caricature to let you know who's in charge...

Now, that was a BOLD statement on CV's part (because it assumes that I know what natures intentions are)... That's why, instead of being BOLD myself and making this the "pick of the month" (which I spent last week), or even a 5 unit pick... I'll take the PACKERS for a modest & humble (3 units)...

Buffalo Bills (1-8) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-7) (1:00 EST)

Line: Bengals by 5.5

The Bengals have really played their asses off the past two weeks (losing to the Steelers & Colts) in games that it was evident were the last gasp to get their season kickstarted for a late season run... They fell short in both...

The reason that I mention that is that it's important in handicapping to identify what the possible state of mind is with a team at any given point during the season... Anyone who plays fantasy football ought to know this... You can't wait for draft day... Then the season starts, and you start racking up wins & losses... Everyone is still "in it" for awhile (to get to the playoffs)... There then reaches a separation point in the W/L column, and some teams drop into the "mathematically" in it (which is usually about one game from being "eliminated")...

You lose interest at that moment... Mostly, these guys are professional, so that "we're defeated" attitude may only last a game or two... Then they often re-gain their interest as the prospect of "performance bonuses" comes on to the horizon (as well as "spoiler roles")... Oftentimes, when I commish a FF league, I insert these types of bonuses into the payout structure... It gives struggling teams a reason to suit up and play hard when they're down & out...

The Bills have been "down & out" all year... Most (including myself) had pegged them as probably having the worst record in the NFL in the 2010 campaign (the "Andrew Luck" drafting rights)... I'd made the Ravens & Packers my Super Bowl picks)... But the Bills ARE trying... They're just trying to get better in a new system... They finally beat the Lions for their first win of the season last week... So I think they can continue this momentum in this spot... Athletes and teams are superstitious about "streaks"... Once you start one, you always want to see how far it can go... Last year the Titans started 0-6, but then started reeling off win after win and finally almost made the playoffs with an 8-8 record... I'll take the BILLS here for (5 units)...

 

Cleveland Browns (3-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) (1:00 EST)

Line: Jaguars by 1.5

All the Browns have done recently is go 2-2 against the Steelers, Saints, Patriots, & Jets... The Jets game they almost won... They've been doing it with rookie QB Colt McCoy (who was almost an afterthought in the 2010 draft)... I've gotta admit that I thought he'd totally fall on his face in the NFL...

Now, it's not really McCoy that's the reason for the Browns success... Instead, it's been Peyton Hillis running like the 2nd coming of John Riggins, and a solid Brown defense (especially at the corners)... What's fortunate (when a team starts contending), is that the QB starts commanding appreciation... Mark Sanchez is this type... When the Jets are winning, everyone will talk about how great Sanchez is as a QB... But if Sanchez tosses 4 balls late down the middle and gets picked off, and the Jets lose... He sucks... Teams that don't have a QB that has the team on his shoulders (like a Peyton Manning), simply want the QB to manage the game and avoid making costly mistakes (ask Trent Dilfer)...

Another surprise, to CV, is the 5-4 record of the Jacksonville Jaguars... I still think their record is somewhat of a lie... Their wins have come against either questionable teams, or teams that were in a bad spot... David Garrard has had some good games, but they've all come against soft defenses... Houston, last week has the worst defense in the NFL... They torched Dallas when Dallas was not showing up for games, and they managed to squeeze out a win vs. Indy, but Indy's defense isn't all that great...

Where did Jacksonville struggle? I'll tell you... vs. the Eagles, vs. Chargers, vs. Titans (all who feature top defenses)... I don't think the Jaguars are "self aware" enough to realize that dynamic, and therefore I'll go with the BROWNS to come in with the upset special and blindside them when they're not looking... (4 units)...

 

Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) (1:00 EST)

Line: Chiefs by 8

I don't know if anybody saw Todd Haley "stiff" Josh McDaniel last weekend on the handshake after the Broncos "ran up the score" vs. the Chiefs... It was kind of funny... It's certainly not something I would do, but it was funny to watch... In a gentlemans game like golf, I would be appalled, but not as much in the NFL... Haley later apologized for the (lack of) gesture...

Anyway... It says something... It probably says it would have "sucked' to have been a Kansas City Chief this week in practice... But it underscores that Todd Haley is probably an intense guy who hates losing or having his team embarrassed... I like to use that psychology in handicapping games...

Speaking of which, the Cardinals themselves got embarrassed last week vs. the Seahawks... Most of the time, it's a great idea to take teams (which the public drops) off an embarrassing loss... So what do you do here when BOTH teams are victims?...

I'll go with the Chiefs winning this game (because technically they're still in a race for the AFC West, and the Raiders "could" possibly lose in Pittsburgh today, while the Chargers & Broncos play each other on Monday Night)... A win by the Chiefs keeps them among the leaders in that division...

The Cardinals are technically still in the hunt for the NFC West (which could see it's division winner with a 7-9 record - lol)... But Derek Anderson is still an interception throwing machine who is prone to mistakes under pressure... He's been playing a little better recently, so I'll go with the CARDINALS to cover this spread, with the Chiefs winning the game... (0 units)...

SUNDAY LATE GAMES

Seattle Seahawks (5-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-3) (4:05 EST)

Line: Saints by 11.5

Vegas has been tossing these "double digit" point spreads out on the Saints all year long... Frankly, I haven't been following the outcomes all that closely... I just roll my eyes, when I see each one, see the public plop down it's money on last years Super Bowl winner, then see the saints win by a field goal in the end...

For this game, Reggie Bush is back, (as well as Pierre Thomas)... I don't want to make too much out of that because it's tough for an NFL player to really be in "game shape" (versus players who have been playing 60 minutes week in and week out)... I don't want to make too much out of this... Seattle has surprised me all year long, and it looks like they have Matt Hasslebeck in the line-up... That is a plus, because he has enough experience to minimize mistakes...

The problem could come at any moment though (if Hasslebeck gets hurt during the game and they have to bring in Charlie Whitehurst to face the Greg Williams blitz packages)... I'll go with the SEAHAWKS to cover here, but can't recommend laying any units on a team that's one hard tackle away from having Pee Wee Herman taking snaps... SEAHAWKS for (0 units)...

 

Atlanta Falcons (7-2) at St. Louis Rams (4-5) (4:05 EST)

Line: Falcons by 3

This a time for the Falcons to step up and really show they mean business... Much has been made about their 18-1 record in the Georgia Dome with Matty Ice... many saw another "cool" last minute drive engineered versus the Ravens (helped by horrible penalty calls and a ball that was juggled on an out of bounds - ruled a catch)... But the Falcons have been "mediocre" on the road... If they want to be put in the pantheon of the New York Giants, they have to win these games...

It may not be so easy to do... The Rams have a similar story... Struggle on the road... Solid at home... Suprisingly, the Rams are in a battle of their own... Not for title of "best team" in the NFC, but they still have a solid chance of winning their division (which means HOME GAME in the first round of playoffs - regardless of record)...

The Falcons don't have an elite defense (especially their secondary)... This could be something for Sam Bradford to exploit (except that he's a little short on weapons at the moment)...

All in all, this is a very fair line... It's going to come down to whichever team steps up to play here, overcomes adversity, or simply gets lucky... I'll go with the RAMS for (1 unit)...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) at San Francisco 49ers (3-6) (4:05 EST)

Line: 49ers by 3.5

Unless you're a football wagering degenerate like me, you probably don't know that the Tampa Bay Bucs have a lousy record on the West Coast... This goes all the way back to like 2002 (and encompasses both good Bucs teams & bad ones - don't forget they won the Superbowl after the 2002 season), until Malcom Glazer decided he didn't care so much about the NFL as he did about equestrian events, tea parties, Manchester United, and basically piling up more debt than the US Congress...

So the public sees the Bucs with a (6-3) record, and the 49ers with a (3-6) record and says "WTF?"... Easy money right? 

Not so fast... Besides being horrible on the West Coast, the Bucs have one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL... Last week, they let the Panthers (who have some of worst offensive rushing stats in the NFL) start a 4th string running back, and have him rush for 100 yards... Frank Gore (49ers) could have a field day here... Troy Smith has been making things interesting at QB the past two games as well... One of the games, nobody saw (because it was in London)... Then the 9'ers had a bye week... Last week they played the Rams down to the wire, and won... As I've said above, the Rams are a better team than most think...

I'm thinking the "mobility" of Troy Smith, & the pounding of Frank Gore will be enough to wear the Bucs down on defense throughout the course of the game... The MO for the Bucs is that many "tough" wins they've had to come from behind... If the 49ers can get out to a lead here, they might be able to keep the Bucs defense on the field a long time in the second half in drives by just pounding the rock... That's Mike Singletary football...

I like the 49ERS here for (2 units)... 

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (7-2) (4:15 EST)

Line: Patriots by 4

Of course nobody (on the East Coast) will be watching the 49ers-Bucs game... All eyes will be on Peyton vs. Brady (and then Giants vs. Dog Killers - on Sunday Night Football)...

I'm sure you're waiting for some "pearls of wisdom" here, but really I don't have any... What can I say about this matchup that has not already been exposed abundantly over the past decade due to all the hype that this matchup brings about...

I often try to use one teams "emotional" state versus the others in determining the potential outcome of a game... Here? I know both teams will  "bring it"... So I guess I'll have to delve into some of the X's & O's...

Neither team has a defense that ought to put their team in the upper echelon of wins... Most of the time these teams win with their preparation and "will"... CV is lucky enough to have a team that's leading the SC FF league at the moment, but my team isn't even close to having scored the most points... Instead, I simply take the schedule game by game, and try to squeeze as many points out of the lineup as is possible, then let the chips fall as they may...

The Patriots are probably a 4 point favorite here because they just dismantled the Steelers last week on TV in my NOVEMBER PICK OF THE MONTH 10 unit play... Everyone knows the Colts have a lot of key personnal dinged up on offense... What IS in tact is Peyton Manning & the offensive line... Oftentimes, that's all you need...

Don't forget that prior to the win over the Steelers (who - as mentioned above - have more than half of their offensive line out), the Patriots struggled to keep the Cleveland Browns offense off the field... The Colts don't rely as much on the run, and don't have a Peyton Hillis, but they do have Javarris James (who CV picked up in a lot of fantasy leagues), and who has scored TD's in several consecutive games recently...

My hunch is that the Colts, as always, can keep this close... Maybe the Pats win in the end... Maybe the ending will be a "re-pay" for the controversial 4th down decision that Bill Belichick made last year in Indy, and the Pats eek out a win instead...

But if you give me Peyton Manning and 4 points... I'll take it... COLTS for (2 units)... 

 

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

(write-up prior to kickoff)

New York Football Giants (6-3) at Philadelphia Dog Killers (6-3) (8:25 EST)

Line: Dog Killers by 3
CV is leaning to small unit play on DOG KILLERS

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

 Denver Broncos (3-6) at San Diego Chargers (4-5) (8:35 EST)

Line: Chargers by 10
CV is leaning to zero unit play on CHARGERS