A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: Free money is not a guarantee of anything.
SPXBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Now below SMA(21). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1225.85). Third close below weekly 3LB midpoint and tested the weekly 3LB reversal. The monthly 3LB reversal is back from IR and starting the next game. QE2infinity.
DXYHanging man day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above the 23.6% retrace at 78.72. Closed above SMA(55). Above the weekly 3LB reversal. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 76.48).
VIXBullish long day (failed harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above SMA(89). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 18.26). Running from the "no fear" zone to fear.
GOLDBearish long day. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed new 0% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1403.20). Quickly approaching weekly 3LB reversal.
EURUSDBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below its 50.0% retrace at 1.3514. Back below SMA(55). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.4098).
JNKBearish LONG day. Now below SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Completely failed the Gann 4x1. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.80).
10YR YIELDBearish long day (gap still open). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 is the line in the sand. Still above SMA(89). Tested but failed SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.84).
DJ TRANS AVGBearish long day (inverted hammer failure). Failed to get above 11/09/10 midpoint. Now below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 4924.46).
CRBBearish LONG day (harami failure). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). Still failing the Gann 1x1. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 319.11). Almost at the weekly 3LB reversal.
XLFBearish long day (homing pigeon shot down). Midpoint below EMA(10). Now below all SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.23).
58 comments:
@AAIP (other thread)
"http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BZQ
who's liking BZQ, now ~17.60, to hit 20+ ?
AAIP"
Personally - I like the 20+ call... But don't quote me on that (I'm working on the WEEKEND HANDICAPS at the moment)...
It just seems to me that the "meat tenderizer" of the week is getting POMO to whack PM's (and, of course - commodity EM's)...
You know... So BB can appear to have it all under control...
After all... We can't have printed dollars bidding up the price of grandma's catfood & heating oil ahead of the long winter, can we?
Interesting evening. Got home from the mine, "helping" my brother set up his CPU that he built for work, the thing is the size of a D-9, and we are now monitoring alien spaceflights in and out of the Milky Way, and other assorted things I did not realize were possible from your home.
Later this week he will start designing a whoozit to fit into a whatzit network. I am afraid I am basically just lost...
He has about 75 consulting contracts he's working on..double click and the entire schematic comes up to be worked on...
My job seems fairly simple compared with this. He tells me a prototype of one of these projects will be delived from China in a few days via Fed Ex and he will debug it here at the Ponderosa. Interesting...
@Creditcane/3lb king
1-1-8-6
Caveat: FREE MONEY... might... just might... end up to be a guarantee of one thing, and one thing only...
MORE FREE MONEY
Play that scenario out to the bitter end & you know where it leads?
@Bruce (6:26)
"designing a whoozit to fit into a whatzit"
---
Tell me this is not a GOVERNMENT OPERATION
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3csfLkMJT4
& I'll possibly have some faith...
Thinking about GM IPO...
Anyone else noticing a lot of Camaro's on the road? I sort of wanted one, just for fun, but it seems like there are a 'ton' on the road right now.
Is that just me? Is that selectivity bias...
At any rate, congrats to the GM engineers on that one....I think it's a sharp looking vehicle, though, the blind spot looks wicked.
Camaro
CV
Still a few trading days left to try and get a reversal. Problem is all of the problems are coming to the forefront. As I hear "experts" talk with the MSM that this is only a minor correction. If we get a weekly 3LB reversal, regardless of opex next week, a minor correction might be their undoing.
fractals bitchez!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/putting-fed-shame-presenting-galaxys-biggest-bubble
No wait... I'm going to go RP one better...
Socio-Economic-Physical-InyoFace-MegaGalactic-HowYaLikeMeNow fractals bitchez!
KOOL MOE D (vs. Mad Stuntman)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XreQcobx4U
BEASTIE BOYS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjtHWyqYhtI
Always liked the Beastie Boys.
@Andy (7:15)
On my way back from THE FARM to MD on Sunday... I saw a Camaro (like you refer to)...
Blow the friggin 'doors' off some chump who was squatting in the fast lane on I-70...
It was kind of comical :-)
FF Question of the week: Does one start Kyle Orton @ San Diego in what will likely be a shootout? Or do you start Michael Vick home against the G-Men coming off that INSANE performance?
see the Camaro's all over the place around here, and less BMW's
I think they are pretty cool looking, though I'd bet all knobs inside are sort of plasticy clunky
plastics....
Back in the '68 (camaro vs. firebird) days tho...
I was sort of sympathetic to the BIRD...
Maybe that's because I had a '66 GOAT...
Admired the 351-Cleveland's tho...
I take Vick over noodle arm any day of the week, Denver played real well last week, and Vick just gives you dynamics in that Philly offense that you can't get with Orton.
desean jackson is good for one huge play per game
@Andy (7:28)
Of course now... That depends on WHO you're playing (in the SC league)...
if you're playing CV... I'd suggest you go with Jimmy Clausen, Derek Anderson, or Charlie Whitehurst)... otherwise... I'll get back to you...
@Andy
Beastie Boys rock!
(all time favorite of CV)... kinda of a PREVIEW of what's become of the BLOG world...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBShN8qT4lk
Andy - I have an old (In nice condition) Dodge Charger (2-door) when I take it out, I happen to see tons of newer Chargers (4-door) and Camaros. But when I am driving my beater 4 door gets me to work broke down ugly looking Skylark, I do not seem to notice too many.
So to kind of answer your question about selective bias, I think there is some of that, but there are quite a few out there. Although FWIW I like the older style cars better.
Mangy Mutt
Don't go dissing me bro, it wasn't my fault we lost that game.
I am a great QB - You'll see.... You'll See...
I think the new KOL album is just alright, many of the songs sound like other ones, but track 3, Pyro, that's a good song.
Don't EVER discount the NYCC remix tho... (the version CV always uses in classez - that rocks the house)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYFX9Ce1qwQ&feature=related
You ever play any of my songs?
They are really cool songs to get down to.
I can really rock'um.
Bieber
I'm a big Tom Brady fan, that's all I'm saying right now.
Like Baby Oh!
@Charlie (White)
LOL... Let's put it this way...
I'll take Matty H (and the points), vs. the Saints this weekend...
If it comes down to you?
I'll take the NEW ORLEANS D (and "hope" for 30 defensive fantasy points for picks & fumbles), this weekend...
:-)
@McF
Deep into the 4th Q yesterday... DJ's "only" catch was the 88 yard bomb on the first play...
That's enuf for a fantasy DINNER tho, so I'd better shut up...
@McF
Also... Yes - Orton doesn't have a strong arm (like many new prototypes in the NFL these days)...
But I'll say... He's ADDED something in the offseason... It may be a "one off" (this season), but it'll end up being his best season ever...
@Justin Beider (7:46)
In a word... "NO"...
or as BLACK SHEEP would say at (1:40)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_JtkSmw808&feature=channel
Let me tell it you REEEEAAAALLL slow... "gotta go"...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-16/continental-ag-shifts-from-bmw-luxury-to-2-700-tata-nano-in-asian-growth.html
Continental AG Shifts From BMW Luxury to Tata's $2,700 Nano
...First one in the market...
CV,
jackson seems to make a play every game, he's the man.
Kyle Orton has had a good year but I think SD is going to play tough down the stretch thats a tough matchup for them this week after the big divisional win last week, imo.
@bat from previous thread:
re: Denninger
The longer this goes on and the more unbelievable stuff I see going on such as outright fraud not being prosecuted and bankers bonuses reaching record levels while the average person is struggling, the more I think Denninger is one of the most rational people out there - at least financial related.
>> Denninger is one of the most rational people out there
I love Karl Denninger. He seems very rational to me, even if I disagree with an occasional post.
Johnny Rotten also seemed very rational to me, when at the end of the last Sex Pistols concert he uttered:
"Ah hahaha! Ever get the feeling you've been cheated??"
That's something most Americans should now be able to appreciate.
I've always been skeptical of Kyle Orton....always thot his gun was weak.
I picked up him earlier this season because he displayed a bit more arm strength than he ever had before. He definitely did something in the offseason--his ball has more zip on it and he can throw the long ball more accurately.
The Josh McDaniels offensive scheme is definitely geared for QBs, so Orton is the beneficiary.
Kudos to the guy for whatever he worked on in the offseason.
I let Brandon Lloyd go earlier in the season, wish I wouldn't have done that.
Bankers and pay....
One of the most common rants I've seen this year is hatred/disgust with "bankers" and their pay/bonuses.
I have slightly different take on it all:
These guys are behaving EXACTLY as a rational person would. Why are we blaming them or spewing venom their way when they're acting as an rational player would?
We (the People) bailed out these financial institutions and save their companies. The FedRes are the idiots who are pushing QE.X, et al in an effort to stop deflation. It's the not the Bankers fault that the Fed doesn't realize they're jamming money through the wrong mechanism.
Bankers=Rational Players
US Government=Naive
Federal Reserve=Misguided
US Citizens=Screwed and knowing it
Nobody should have been bailed out. If the FedRes wanted to "create dollars," they should have just deposited $1000 in everyone's bank account every Sunday. Then, you would have spurred some economic activity. Not kidding.
Hey Bruce,
If your bro needs help, I'm good with computers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaSTmn4Hhvw
McFear:
"I let Brandon Lloyd go earlier in the season, wish I wouldn't have done that."
Yeah, that was a rough drop for sure. However, I let Roddy White go (to you) in exchange* for Rashard friggin' Mendenhall who seems to be only playing 1/2 the games now. I could have had a Kyle Orton/Vick/Adrian Peterson/Roddy White/Brandon Lloyd combo going every week....
Ugh.
*I had to get a RB earlier in the season because Knowshon Moreno was "No Show" Moreno. If I had known he would have been at least 'serviceable' at some point during the season, that trade (Mendenhall for R.White) wouldn't have happened.
Oh Well...thems the breaks in Fantasy Football. Roddy White has done a bit better than I had imagined. He's been a stud.
I hope you win out.
Or just cut taxes, what a complicated idea...
I-Man:
Tru Dat.
Andy,
>> Nobody should have been bailed out. If the FedRes wanted to "create dollars," they should have just deposited $1000 in everyone's bank account every Sunday.
That was the one and only one way to fight deflation without bailing out the
very people who profited most from creating our problems in the first place.
>> These guys are behaving EXACTLY as a rational person would. Why are we blaming them or spewing venom their way when they're acting as an rational player would?
Is it "rational" to steal if I know I can get away with it? Sure. Should people not be angry about it? That's a different question.
There's a large amount of fraud and insider trading. It's just not being prosecuted. They're bribing Congress with the money they stole. The industry deserves our scorn.
Nice little write up here about how this horrible idea should die and go away:
Ethanol Subsidies Should Die
CSPAN captures the frenetic pace of work in the Fed's offices:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xNnRBksvOU
wunsacon:
"Is it "rational" to steal if I know I can get away with it? Sure. Should people not be angry about it? That's a different question."
The way that the "banksters" are most being enriched is by borrowing short at sub-zero rates and investing in fixed income down the curve. That's, FAR AND AWAY, the most lucrative game in town. It's a straight up transaction. Whatever insider trading/dealing your talking about is a mere pittance compared to that (essentially) zero-risk "trade."
So, yes, given the fact they (banks) have been given hundreds of billions of dollars at sub-zero rate, and they're investing it at 3-5% risk free rates down the curve, I would submit that they're acting very rationally and legally.
@Andy
Mendenhall's SUB PAR performance isn't simply his fault...
Max Starks, Chris Kemoeattu, and Willie Colon have all gone down to injuries... And Flozell Adams is a karate kicking "kung-fu" bandit...
The Steelers are now 3-2 with "Big Ben" in the lineup... (before - with the line HEALTHY & backup QB's playing "handoff city")... well...
Hmmm...???
@Andy (9:26)
You're not related to Wade Phillips are you?
I haven't been over to TBP in a long time, but I started scrolling through the comments and thought this was interesting.
Curtis Faith Says:
November 16th, 2010 at 7:21 pm
Well, I started telling all my friends on my blog last Wednesday to dump dump dump and get into U.S. Treasuries and to take money out of Goldman, and Shittybank, and Chase, and Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo and to put it into small local banks with good friendly staff. I also like Singapore with some stipulations.
I’ve never felt a stronger gut instinct that this is the big one. The ’29 level crash. The FED boys and their stupid inability to do anything because they know only what they think and nothing of how the rest of the world works. I really liked Tony Robbin’s link to the QE2 post earlier today. Funny as hell because it was so true.
Not a healthy pullback but the beginning of an epic crash the likes of which will bankrupt the big banks and take many with it. I see us taking out the lows of last March and then some before this settles. Way too much uncertainty going into the Holiday Season.
We have huge organized protests in Gettysburg this weekend for Women’s and LGBT rights, we have the National Opt-Out plan to tell the TSA to stop molesting our children, we have the Tea Party, we have QE2, we have a clueless Treasury Secretary who doesn’t know what he doesn’t know.
In short, I’m as short as I’ve ever been and have been for a full week. Leveraged to the hilt and adding on with enormous profits.
Not only that but the market gave the picture perfect signal. My favorite swing trade at just the right time.
I think Black Friday will earn its name next week after the travel snafus that will result from the TSA and other protests.
We have Ireland and Greece. A militant Israel posturing against Iran.
We have a China bubble that’s just starting to pop.
And we have massive massive mortgage fraud exposure.
In short, the world markets are fucked.
The only safe bet will be U.S. Treasuries. My friends in Asia and Brazil and Argentina already moved cash to the U.S. only out of corporate bonds and equities. Also my friend in the Middle East have been putting their money in the small trustworthy local Sharia banks. The big international banks are all in jeopardy.
We have never seen a time like this. The day of the 1987 crash was nothing like today’s market. We’ve got a dry forest with thick underbrush and hurricane level Santa Ana winds.
Seriously fucked!
>> So, yes, given the fact they (banks) have been given hundreds of billions of dollars at sub-zero rate, and they're investing it at 3-5% risk free rates down the curve, I would submit that they're acting very rationally and legally.
Andy, they contribute lavishly to Congressional campaigns to buy politicians for bailouts. That adds to debt. Then, these bankers, who work at the Fed's quasi-public/quasi-private DEALER NETWORK, skim off the top.
Neither I nor even you have access to the data the way the Fed's DEALERS have access.
Hedge fund managers pay 15% tax rate. Lowest ever. Most Americans are against the tax cuts for the top 1/2%. Wall Street BUYS Congress to keep rates that low. That results in more debt. More debt issued? Oh, goodie. More debt to skim off the top.
I'm not in that room with Bernanke. The heads of the banks are. I don't know just how solidly to hold stocks because I don't know the timing and extent of Ben's actions.
Legal? It shouldn't be. AND THE BANKERS LOBBY TO KEEP IT THAT WAY.
You refrain from "scorn" all you want. Not me. The industry is a fucking sin. That's my view.
Wall Street, the FIRE sectors, are parasitic. It's grown so big it's killing the host.
McFear: On of your favorite peeps was on TBP tonight:
"dss Says:
November 16th, 2010 at 10:26 pm
Since the panic bottom in March of 09, whenever we get a pullback the “Mad Max” “End Times” crew comes out. Short everything! We are going to zero! P3! P3! P3! Sales of freeze dried provisions must be going through the roof. Ooogaa, Ooogaa, dive, dive! If the market didn’t go to zero during the crash of 08-09 it ain’t going there now."
Wonder if DSS has read any of my work in the last few years? I haven't mentioned the possibility of a P3 for at least 18 months, when it was still a possible outcome. Most of my wave counts have dismissed this idea for a long time (relative term for technicians) now.
Wonder what websites she's actually reading? Or, if she's just latching on to some very specific ideas (from a long time ago) in order to make some silly/stupid point. Or is she just being spiteful and condescending in order "to get a rise?"
I suppose the short answer is, who really cares? From what I can tell, the old lady* has never made a market call in her life.
* Not my term for her. She has consistently made of point of highlighting her age and experience on several occasions.
@wunsacon
"Andy, they contribute lavishly to Congressional campaigns to buy politicians for bailouts. "
I think your scorn is misplaced my friend. If you want to get into a philosophical argument over the mere existence of a "Federal reserve" and what their role in society is, then I think you would find we're on a similar side.
I think A LOT of Congressman were "sold the Bill of Goods" by Bernanke and Paulsen that they "needed to do something." Those weren't lobbyists making those calls. Those were individuals who were very scared of a total collapse and saw some serious shit coming their way--shit that would harm their buddies in the banking industry. In their defense, I think they truly believed that a non-bailout would harm Main Street. (more on that later)
It was the Congressman who flinched. It was the Congressman who failed to question the reality of the situation. It was TWO Presidents from different sides of the political spectrum who endorsed it all.
The actual problem is NOT the lobbyists or the political contributions. The real problem is that ALL OF THE GUYS in charge studied from the same Economics Textbook in College. And, that book has some major failings.
Misguided, they are.
Does DC run Wall Street or vice versa? Who's puppet and who's puppeteer? I can't tell. So, I'm angry at both groups.
Andy, I don't disrespect you, Ritholtz or a lot of other people who play the market. (I *especially* love short sellers. They tend to prick the balloons of the pumpers.) And I don't expect you to have to answer for Wall Street's sins.
Good nite, all. Going to bed early.
@wunsacon
Just because you posited the whole "bought and paid for" meme. How exactly do lobbyists and special interest "give" money to politicians? How do they bribe them in order to sway their votes on certain issues? What do the politicians financially have to gain by this activity?
Does the money show up in a personal bank account somewhere?
Are you suggesting that they receive special private jobs when they get booted from office?
I'm just curious how you see the quid pro quo playing out? Does it play out across the entire majority of Congressman or just a few "well connected" players?
Note: I'm genuinely interested in how you view the "mechanics" of the money transfer from "lobbyists/banks" to the politicians.
@wunsa.
good night. we can pick this discussion up some other time.
I really am interested in your perspective on this one.
Andy T
I don't expect a "P3" (I know who that is referring to) but a meaningful correction. You can't keep propping up equity prices with air forever.
Now what's "P3"?
You guys...
I just cant keep up with all this lingo.
And is P4 even worse???
AT,
eh, not really sure what she's talking about unless she reads Danerics site every day. Only discussion around here was basically to dismiss the idea of P3 for many, many months now, not to mention, many here were long in early 2009, not short, and caught the largest part of the move up.
I'm sure it was all just a random comment about being too bearish to improve your trading, totally by chance the wording there. ;-)
Is when you wet your pants
new thread
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