Weekend EDITION - (Week 1 NFL Picks)

Sunday September 12, 2010 - NFL SCHEDULE (Week 1)

AFTERNOON GAMES ADDED

EARLY GAMES

Carolina Panthers at New Your Giants (1:00 EST)

Line: New York Football Giants by 6.5

Steve Smith (Panthers) was out for the entire pre-season, which makes what they accomplished on offense fairly irrelevant. Smith adds a "dimension" to the Panthers offense that many NFL viewers simply don't appreciate. A lot of praise is DESERVEDLY heaped on the two headed backfield of DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, but it is the ability to run PLAY ACTION that makes them even more effective... Add to that, the fact that left tackle Jordan Gross is back in the lineup and Carolina should have the opportunity to control a lot of clock in a lot of games this year... Gross was struggling a little in the pre-season, getting flagged for a lot of penalties with the umpire lined up in the backfield, but he's starting to sort that out... I'm a believer of "horses for courses", so the fact that Steve Smith was able to chalk up 60 yards and a touchdown in last years 41-9 blowout of the Giants might factor in... Those numbers aren't gaudy in of themselves, but consider that Matt Moore only had to throw 20 balls in that game... Jonathan Stewart ran over the Giants for 206 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries in that game, so if the Giants decide to game plan for him, Carolina might just go the other way... It's not like the Giants have solved all their defensive problems... They're relying on Chris Canty and Jonathan Goff to clog the middle...

Carolina might have similar problems trying to contain Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs as well... It's much harder to face a healthy Brandon Jacobs (before he goes down with the inevitable injury)... Those two can help their team in avoiding 3rd & long situations... And with that in mind, and with the loss of Julius Peppers on defense, Carolina may have to get more creative in it's blitz packages... Eli Manning, at minimum, has the football aptitude of his older brother, and should be able to use his talented wideouts Steve Smith (Giants), and a healthy Hakeem Nicks (who might have a breakout year)...

I see this game as being fairly evenly matched (with teams trading jabs)... For that reason, if I'm betting the game, I don't want to give up 7 points...

The Giants are opening up their new stadium here (the one that will host the Super Bowl in a few years)... Interestingly, in recent years, favorites opening up their new crib are just 3-8 against the spread since 1997. Bill Simmons wrote an entire article about this a couple of years ago. I'll take the PANTHERS and the points for (1 unit)...

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST)

Line: Falcons by 2

These are not the droids you are looking for... 

Every year, Vegas starts out by putting a JEDI MIND TRICK on the public (with some team, or some game)... The Steelers failed to make the playoffs last year (after winning the Super Bowl the previous year), and that was followed up by all the "off-field" antics of their feature QB Ben Roethlisberger... The proud city of Pittsburgh has been playing on the defensive all winter long...

The sum of these happenings is the fact that Big Ben is still out for the first 4 games (due to suspension)... They brought in Fat Albert lookalike Byron Leftwich to fill in, but he crumpled to the ground in the last pre-season game with a knee injury... So now the Steelers have to either go with veteran Charlie Batch, or 2nd year guy Dennis Dixon (and the public is not buying it)... Instead, they're buying into the story that the NFC North has become very competitive (with the Ravens & Bengals), and that the Steelers might be TOAST if they can't start the season at least 2-2 (with some tough games on the schedule)...

Dixon may be prone to errors, but he can create a lot of havoc with his feet... It might end up making some kind of difference... The Steelers are likely to try and establish Rashard Mendenhall, but if he can't get things going behind a depleted offensive line, this may turn into a high school football game...

Atlanta may have some problems of their own... Matt Ryan is a talented QB, but Pittsburgh still has one of the most relentless pass rushes in the NFL... A lot of 3rd & longs may ensue, and that can be a recipe for disaster... Add to the fact that Troy Polamalu is back healthy again and will be looking to wash last season out of his hair...

The bottom line here is that lines makers have gone overboard in making the Steelers appear vulnerable... The public has taken the bait... When was the last time you ever saw the Steelers as an UNDERDOG at heinz field against a team that didn't even make the playoffs the year before?

I think the Steelers have enough of the SOLID personnel (defense, defensive line, etc.) to step up and keep them in any contest... Add to the fact that they're playing with a chip on their shoulder as they're being disrespected in their own house... I'll take the STEELERS for (4 units)...

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Bucs (1:00 EST)

Line: Bucs by 3

Jake Delhomme has actually had a pretty decent pre-season behind center for the Browns... It's amazing to watch what happens when you put someone like Mike Holmgren into the front office of an organization, and somehow DUDS turn into STUDS... Cleveland probably won't be playoff bound this year, but they aren't likely to be the doormats they were last year either...

Tampa Bay's defense gave up at least 107 rushing yards to all but two opponents last year... They added Gerald McCoy to this mix, but it still may take time to see that pay off... No doubt,  Jerome Harrison and Peyton Hillis should be asked to find some holes and move the chains.

Tampa Bay will also be a much improved team this year, but it may not be very clear to see as Cleveland has a fairly decent defense. I don't want to spend too much time on this game (because it's clearly one of the less interesting match-ups of the weekend)...

Most likely, there are some FANTASY players of interest here (Jerome Harrison, Cadillac Williams), but I don't see huge performances...

A preferred "betting angle" of mine is to take teams that are LAYING points that aren't in the position to do so... Tampa Bay, LAYING POINTS?... Until they prove themselves, they shouldn't be laying points to any team not named the "Ole Miss" junior varsity... I'll take the BROWNS and the points for (1 unit)...

Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00 EST)

Line: Jaguars by 3

I'm not really sure that there will be much interest generated in this matchup when one views the entire menu of NFL games at large... That's exactly what I like... I like games that the bookmakers can kind of cozy in under the radar...

The Jaguars, at home, are used to playing in an empty arena... They are probably amongst the worst run franchises in the NFL (despite the fact that they have managed to field some OK teams over the years)... The Indianapolis Colts should thank their lucky stars that they play in this division because it just about guarantees them 2 wins per year... Jacksonville only laces up their shoes when they play Indy... Other teams in the division (like the Houston Texans) have profited from this in the past... If you're scheduled to play Jax the week before or after they play Indy, you're as good as gold...  

It's kind of weird, because ALL the stats on Jax don't play out (if you only look superficially)... They've had a pretty good record against the spread in opening games, but that doesn't really tell the whole story...

I'm actually throwing the book out on this one anyway... For one simple reason... TIM TEBOW is a Jacksonville native... Nuff said... It doesn't matter if he's playing for the opposing squad, or if he's really a PROVEN NFL prospect... He matters to these locals...

It's a great place to come in and start a pro career...

Therefore, I could on about Maurice Jones-Drew (speculation on his injury), or the defensive problems both of these squads have, or the IMPROVEMENT in arm strength that Denver QB Kyle Orton showed in the pre-season... This is TIM TEBOW, and I'll take the BRONCOS and the points for (3 units)...

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (1:00 EST)

Line: Colts by 2.5

Andy is not going to like this one... Frankly, I'm not sure I really like making this call, but I put myself on the line every week to make one, so here goes...

Peyton Manning is still a beast (There, at least I made BRUCE happy)... He can substitute parts in his offense, and still put up MVP numbers...  

The Texans actually limited the Colts to 44 points in two games last year... Some of was due to the fact that Joe Addai was hobbled, and therefore manning had to work out of longer downs & distances... Yet Manning still went a combined 61-of-85 for 562 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions in two meetings against Houston... Only the "psychic" powers of Mike Singletary seem to be able to slow Peyton Manning down...

All AFC South teams have their game faces on when they play the Colts... The Texans, in their own right, have traditionally done a great job early on against the Colts in terms of establishing a lead. Given their personnel, that's not surprising...

The problem when playing the Colts isn't ESTABLISHING a lead (which good teams can do, and poor teams simply go down 14-0, and it's on cruise control from there)... But consider this... It's not a coincidence that two of the top 3 fantasy backs (Chris Johnson of the Titans, & Maurice Jones-Drew of the Jaguars, come out of the same division)... The Texans are hoping that Arian Foster will play that role this year... What role is that?

Simply this... If you don't have the game nailed down by 17 points against the Colts within the last 5 minutes of the game, and have a running back that can grind out a few first downs... Sure as shitfire, Manning is going to come back and drop 2 TD's on you before you have a chance to leave your seat and reach the stadium exits... 

Don't believe me? Ask Sage Rosenchoker (Texan fans)... You'll find him totin' a clipboard behind Brett Favre & Tavaris Jackson in Minny these days...

Make no mistake that this is a big game for the Texans and that they'll bring 100% to this effort... Also noteworthy is that in recent years, making a play AGAINST the previous years Super Bowl loser, has paid off well... But the Colts (& Manning) have not been among those Super Bowl losing teams... So it's too tough to go against them on such a slim point spread... I'll take the COLTS for (0 units)...

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (1:00 EST)

Line: Dolphins by 3

If you look around at mocks drafts, most of the 2011 crop has the Bills drafting in the #1 spot (which basically means, before the season has even started, most are projecting the Bills to be the worst team in the league... Socio-economics in play here? Bills suck? 

I dunno...

Most who follow football know that the Bills have no marquis QB, their owner is stingy, and half the time they're toying with the idea of moving half their games to Toronto... Besides that, they are making an transition to a 3-4 defense without really having the proper personnel (which are hard to find because only about 2 out of 120 NCAA programs run a "pro style" 3-4 defense)...

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams could easily combine for a lot of yards in this contest, provided they stay healthy, and the Bills stay properly confused...

What Miami really needs to do is to run the rock, & keep the down & distances manageable... Their receivers, including high profile Brandon ("If they lock us out next year I'm going to play for the Denver Nuggets") Marshall, have dropped nearly a dozen balls in the pre-season... Maybe Marshall is expecting bounce passes or alley oops...

Buffalo is going to come at Miami with C.J. Spiller (who is likely to have to create magic on his own, because besides not addressing QB needs, the Bills suck at drafting offensive tackles)... 

It'll probably end up being one of those situations that Miami, (with 8 in the box), can contain Spiller most of the time, but then one or two moments, a big play will happen (either if Spiller manages to break free, or, on a long play action pass to Lee Evans)... 

These are the kinds of games that drive you nuts if you're a fantasy owner... Do you "sit" Spiller & Lee Evans because they may goose egg? Or, do you wait it out and hope for that one lucky play that secures your production "nut" for the weekend... 

From a betting perspective, the thing that bothers me most is that the entire PLANET is on the Dolphins... Interesting, when you consider the following:

- Miami has not won in Buffalo since 2004. 

- The Dolphins have never won a Week 1 game with Tony Sparano.

- The Bills have to feel really disrespected. Along with the Browns, they've been the butt of every NFL joke this offseason. New head coach Chan Gailey has even ask his own fans not to heckle the team... No joke...

- Miami, after "looking past" crappy Buffalo, has to play the Vikings, Jets, Patriots, Packers, Steelers, Bengals, Ravens and Titans in consecutive weeks... It could be a sword that cuts either way... Either the Dolphins are "looking past" the Bills, OR, they could be thinking, "We better get this division win under our belts here, the road gets tougher ahead"... 

Sometimes, that's a recipe to play TIGHT though, and what do the Bills have to lose... I think I'd go with the BILLS and the points for (1 unit)...

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (1:00 EST)

Line: Bears by 6.5

The further the Lions get from the Matt Millen years, the better they become... This isn't the 0-16 team from two seasons ago... One must now recognize that they have some potent weapons on the offensive side of the ball (as well as the middle of the defensive line)... Matthew Stafford this preseason: 37-of-52, 353 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. His completion percentage was 71.2 %... 

The Bears don't have enough skill in their secondary to slow down the Lions attack, so they're going to have to hope that the acquisition of Julius Peppers will help by applying pressure... It may end up backfiring, because with the acquisition of Jahvid Best, the Lions have someone they can dump the ball off to (who is a playmaker) in the face of all out pressure... Chicago surrendered at least 100 rushing yards to its final 11 opponents in last year. 

This will be the first installment of the Mike Martz hospital ward... It's first "patient" ought to be Jay Cutler... In Jay Cutler's four full quarters this preseason, he took nine sacks. If you extrapolate that over a 16-game schedule, Cutler figures to be sacked a whopping 144 times this year... Ouch!

Since it's not Martz's fat ass getting pummeled every play, he probably has not thought of the fact that his ridiculous "no blocking" schemes are going to unleash the likes of newly acquired, Ndamukong Suh, Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams. The Lions were able to generate a ton of pressure against their opponents this preseason - a trend that will continue in this contest...

An ANGLE that I like to apply to games is what's known as the "DIVISION DOGS of 7"... It hardly ever pays to lay 7 points to a division rival (especially on the road)... Until the Bears can prove that they're not just another desperate team, with a desperate head coach, that just hired a desperate offensive coordinator (against a re-invigorated team full of motivation)... Call me skeptical... I'll take the LIONS and the points for (5 units)...

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks Titans (1:00 EST)

Line: Flaming Thumbtacks by 6

I may be the dumbest guy on the planet... In my first two Fantasy Football drafts, I ended up with the #1 and #2 pick respectively... That means BOTH times I had the opportunity to take Chris Johnson (who may end up with over 2,500 yards in combined offense)... Both times I passed, and instead REACHED for Aaron Rogers... 

The problem with a #1 or #2 pick (in Fantasy Football) is that in a snake draft format, your next pick isn't going to come until #21 & #22 (or later if it's a 12 team league)... So sometimes you have to reach for YOUR GUY early if you think he may not be around later (and in the process, IGNORE all the insults being hurled at you by the other "drafters" who think drafts ought to go by chalk rankings)...

By "bet" this season is simply that Aaron Rogers will end up being the highest point scorer in fantasy football this season... That's not hard to assume when you understand that a QB has the ball in his hands on every single offensive snap...

Offenses that rely heavy on one particular player (like the Titans do with Chris Johnson), end up being "game planned" against... It's a way of other teams to make you beat them with your WEAKER stuff (instead of your main weapon)... Last year, Adrian Peterson, carried that mantle for the Vikings... Teams focused on shutting him down, and AP, although he had impressive numbers, didn't quite duplicate the output from his previous season...

I remember the beginning of last season when everyone was talking about Chris Johnson & LenDale White as being virtually inseparable (in anticipating scoring output)... By the end of the year, LenDale White ate himself out of the league, and has now bounced through 2 teams, and is out for the season...

What this all has to do with the Raiders, is that they (as well as other teams) will likely try to make the Titans ONE DIMENSIONAL on offense... I seriously doubt that Nnamdi Asomugha is too terrified of Vince Young's passing arm and weapons... Vince Young will likely end up having to be creative here to move the chains...

Unfortunately, Oakland won't have much to rely on to move the chains either... Michael Bush broke his thumb in the pre-season (and he could have given Tennessee's undersized defensive line some problems). Darren McFadden will get the start, maybe catch some passes, and go down on first contact as usual... I can't see Jason Campbell having a big game against a healthy Cortland Finnegan... 

The problem here, mostly, is with the line... The Titans are favored by 6.5 at home, yet the Raiders have proven to be a decent team to bet on when in these situations... Conversely, they suck as favorites... In a game that's almost a touchdown differential, and, that figures to either have a lot of punts, or consume a lot of game clock, it's tough to manage that kind of separation... It could be one of those games that, if you're siding with the Titans, and giving up the 6.5, you're in the 4th quarter with a 5 or 6 point lead, and BEGGING for the defense to come up with a "pick six" off of Jason Campbell on a last drive to cover your ass and keep your bookie at bay... I'll take the RAIDERS for (1 unit)...

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (1:00 EST)

Line: Patriots by 4.5

Cincinnati has become a well balanced team that can compete with anyone in the league as long as they remain healthy... It is interesting to note the tenure of Marvin Lewis as their head coach... At this point, he is one of the top 3 "longest" tenured head coaches in the NFL... When he came over to Cincinnati from Baltimore, after having been the mastermind behind one of the most fearsome defenses (Ravens - Super Bowl winning team, 2000), many expected Lewis to continue with the defensive tradition, but instead he found himself with a team with some potent OFFENSIVE weapons, and a bunch of mismatched players elsewhere who never were the right personnel to fit into any particular scheme...

After several years of BAND-AID solutions, the Bengals finally managed to put together a DIVISION WINNER last year (which is hard to do when you have to play the Steelers & Ravens twice each year)... 

Most will note, with awe, the receiving corps of the Bengals (with "85" & now T.O.), but it was really the addition of Cedric Benson that allowed the Bengals of 2009 to manage the clock better on offense...

They really have a solid defense as well, but their main defensive front, led by Domata Peko, & Antwan Odom (coming off achilles surgery) was hobbled by injuries at times last year...

I think the Bengals are going to be a team that could repeat its success from last year, however, they're not going to "sneak up" on anyone this time...

It's tough, EVER, to sneak up on the Patriots... They've got to be coming into this year with a chip on their shoulder... Tom Brady looked outright MAD earlier in the pre-season with all the hype about the J-E-T-S Jet's Jets Jets, and the show "Hard Knocks" on ESPN... They might be out to prove that the AFC East still goes through Foxboro... Brady should be fully recovered from the knee surgery that kept him from playing 100% last season...

One thing to consider... VERY EARLY... Is that this game actually may end up being a "tiebreaker" for a playoff spot come the end of the year... Both teams may be vying either for winning there respective divisions, OR, have to face the tiebreakers in WILD CARD-VILLE... You can bet Bill Belchick has an idea like this in the back of his mind... I expect the Patriots to play hard and keep their foot on the gas pedal...  

I'm going to handicap the game on that notion... That the Patriots still have the better pedigree, and notwithstanding the talent that the new & improved Bengals bring to the contest, the Patriots will win and cover... PATRIOTS for (3 units)...

Afternoon games will be discussed in the SUNDAY thread... Here's the line-up...

AFTERNOON GAMES

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (4:15 EST)

Line: Cardinals by 4

Now that Kurt Warner has gone off to "Dancing With the Stars-ville" (and Matt Leinart got pawned off to the Houston Texans for a few Waylon Jennings 8 track tapes (why? I dunno, I guess because Ken Wisenhunt likes WJ)... Derek Anderson takes over as the starter...

Let's put it this way... Annie Oakley, Derek Anderson ain't... But it's probably an improvement over Matt Leinart (who has about the arm strength of Little Orphan Annie)...

I guess Anderson will be able to move the ball vs. the Rams... One reason being that the Rams D has difficulty stopping anything, and 2nd, because you don't have to be all that accurate when throwing to Larry Fitzgerald... Remember in Cleveland two years ago Anderson was throwing balls to Braylon Edwards who couldn't catch a ball if it was pre-coated with Elmers glue...

Sam Bradford is goiung to get his first real taste of the NFL here... Bradford was 21-of-28 for 257 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in his final two preseason contests, though he faced New England's block defense and Baltimore's scrub warmers...

Despite losing a lot of talent, the Cardinals still have a lot of veterans on the field, and this aspect should be evident against a rookie QB in his debut (who isn't surrounded with the best of supporting casts)... I'll take the Cardinals for (1 unit)...
 

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (4:15 EST)

Line: 49ers by 3

Seattle has no pass rush and can't get to opposing quarterbacks... Alex Smith isn't exactly the re-incarnation of Joe Montana, but you have to remember that he was working without his main weapons (Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, & Vernon Davis in the pre-season)... Davis was just awarded the most lucrative contract for Tight Ends in the history of the NFL yesterday, so he'd better lace it up and produce something... Smith should have a pretty decent game at Seattle (and if you're a Frank Gore FF owner, you probably have a good chance of winning your first game (as long as your other players aren't named Lauverneus Coles or the Seattle defense or kicker)... Seattle allowed at least 113 rushing yards to eight of their final 10 opponents in 2009... This years version anhas not been upgraded...

Usually I'd have about a million funny things to say about how bad Seattle is... But this is Pete carroll's first game as head coach, so I'll wait until they PROVE themselves as truly inept before I start ladeling on the sauce... Seattle's biggest issues are their interior lines (on both sides of the ball)... This is the NFL... Most games are won there... My only problem with laying big units on this game is that everyone seems to be on the same page... Sometimes Vegas, though, doesn't mind tossing a bone to  the betting public in week 1... It keeps them coming back... Also, we'll see how an EASY win for the 49ers here effects the other lines (there will only be 3 games AFTER this one on the weekend schedule)... After paying out the 49ers winners here, Vegas will get its money back, either this week or next... 49ers for (4 units)...

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (4:15 EST)

Line: Packers by 3

CV's ass is a little on the line here... I mentioned before that in my 3 "money" FF leagues, I'd drawn the #1, #2, #4 pick in the draft... Each time, I reached for my main main for 2010, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers... 

I know it was a reach, but the problem is this... That high up in the draft, and your next pick becomes #20 and #21... Rogers was going somewhere between #12-#15 in most drafts, so there was a very good chance that he would be off the board by the time it came to my second pick...

I've learned that you have to play fantasy football with guys you like... I've also learned that many times you can go chalk (and draft a RB in the first round) then watch that guy go down with an injury and be out for several games (or the whole season)... Sometimes too, that back can be worn down by the time the Fantasy Football playoffs arrive, and he's getting less touches (or playing on some frozen tundra)...

Adrian Peterson was #1 or #2 in a lot of drafts, but I saw that he was playing the Vikings D, Cowboys D, Jets D, Packers D, and New England all in the first 6 weeks... That's a big punishing load to carry...

Now one could tell me that Aaron Rogers, as a QB, also plays in the frozen tundra of Green Bay... But I've found that can have an opposite effect... Those guys are used to playing there and have adjusted their games & playcalling... Rogers, often, can TORCH a teams secondary in late November & December games in Green Bay...

Rogers was 41-of-53 for 470 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions in the preseason. He might win MVP this year, and Green Bay ought to be one of a handful of NFC teams in early consideration to make a run at the Super Bowl...

Then again, he may go down in a crumpled heap in the first week and CV's season may be blown (like Tom Brady owners were a few years ago)... The problem with Green Bay's offense last season was its pass protection. Rodgers took way too many sacks in the first half of the season. However, that issue was resolved when tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher rejoined the lineup. Rodgers barely saw any pressure the preseason and didn't take a single sack.

The Eagles traditionally do try and put pressure on opposing QB's... So this game ought to say a lot... Rogers has a lot of weapons: Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and Jermichael Finley.

On the other side of the ball, Philly ushers in the Kevin Kolb era... Kolb played fairly pedestrian in the pre-season, and I think this game sets up for Clay Matthews to harrass
him all day long...

Some of the Eagles key players (DeSean Jackson & Jerry Maclin) are nursing minor injuries already)...
The bottom line is that the Packers have Super Bowl hopes, and the Eagles are, sort of, in a rebuilding phase... I say that not to criticize the Eagles so much as say that Green Bay ought to take a step up here and establish themselves as frontrunners... Think about it... They've managed to quietly stay away from all the media circus in Minnesota, Dallas, or now New Orleans... They're like the 49ers in that way (but more talented)... I'll take the Packers for (3 units)...

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (8:20 EST)

Line: Cowboys by 3.5

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (7:00 EST)

Line:

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (10:15 EST)

Line: