TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 9.10.10

Morning Audibles 9.10.10 - OK This Is Weird

OK, this is weird...

I'll tell you this little story... (It's not long, actually)... But here goes...

Last night was the start of the NFL season, so may last post on the blog, ANY BLOG, was a few minutes before 7PM (est)... I had no interest in markets, I just wanted to cozy up to the TV with some beer (Stellas, on this occasion), and watch the events unfold (I had no players on either team playing on any of my fantasy teams, but a few players were going AGAINST me on the match-ups...

I had NO IDEA what I was going to do for a thread in the morning... Markets seem dull, there's still no volume, everything seems out of whack, (yet unwilling to budge)... And, OF COURSE, we have that 2 month window into the elections where we know "THEY" always hold up the markets... I mean, you can count on it, just as you can count on your coffee machine to start percolating out the juice at whatever time you set it to... Although some of us prefer to make coffee the old fashioned way...

Anyway, by the time the game was over, I still had no idea what I was going to do as a thread... I thought the Dave Matthews Band "pre-game" concert was, um, wait for this... BETTER THAN EXPECTED... He finished, with a mix that transitioned into "Burning Down The House" (by the Talking Heads)... Which I thought was an interesting statement... I still haven't searched around the internet yet this morning, but I'm going to try to find a link...

Anyway, I wake up at about 5:30 this morning... And without doing, or thinking about anything, (and while I'm still lying there in bed)... I decide that I'm going to do a thread on GOLD... See if anything is up (or down) in that department... I swear, I didn't even look at any blogs, comments, or ANYTHING... The first thing I did was just download a simple chart of $GOLD... Here's my crappy chart...

It frankly didn't look too good (on the surface)... Well, actually, it looks FANTASTIC... Just, not in this exact moment (as it looks prepared to correct)... My "angle" on this was going to be to look at the GOLD chart from a MONTHLY 3LB perspective... So it was only then that I came to the Survivor Capital blog, and lo and behold I read the last few comments from last evening...

Nic said...

OK I am bearish Gold. Sorry Gold bugs.
Strong dollar, Possible double top, bearish evening star on the daily. If we break out of the rising channel from July lows I am a seller looking for 1200 again.

September 10, 2010 12:09 AM

karen said...

Nic, I <3 you.. no apologies to this bug as I am so so so bearish gold as we in so cal say : )

$1200?! C'mon! can't we see lower than that?!

CV, I bot a case of Stellas in your honor yesterday.. Afraid to refrigerate them tho.. as soon as they go in, they come out..

September 10, 2010 12:40 AM

karen said...

Speaking of bugs and buggers.. $wtic.. what was that today?! hoping it was a gift, I am.

September 10, 2010 12:41 AM

AmenRa said...

Gold almost made it back to its previous high but got scared.

September 10, 2010 1:01 AM

---

So now my only fear is that we've unwittingly reached a consensus... Actually not, because I hope to hell this thing pulls back... We haven't had one of Andy's charts in over a month on GOLD, so I'm going to re-print the one from the beginning of August here... And maybe after he polishes off that steak in Calgary, and checks his teams FF stats, he'll know what direction to go this coming Sunday...

Gold Report 1 Aug 2010

The Dave Matthews Band (9.09.10)

"Why I Am/Burning Down The House"

237 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 237 Newer› Newest»

Bruce in Tennessee said...: And yet we could still be in a worldwide collapse:

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aCXFsvmmmJS8

Greece May Need to Roll Over EU Loan, JPMorgan Says

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Greece may need to extend a 110- billion-euro ($140 billion) bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund by an extra three to six years to avoid a default on its debt, JPMorgan Chase & Co said.

“No one is even contemplating or thinking about” debt restructuring, Christodoulou told Andrea Catherwood on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse” program. “The general public is very supportive of our measures.”

...The dominoes are still standing for now. But if they fall, will gold fall too?; September 10, 2010 at 8:31 AM
AmenRa said...: I sense the goal this week is for the SPX to hold 1100 which will be the ammunition for opex week.; September 10, 2010 at 8:32 AM
CV said...: @Amen

You might be right... On that chart that I put up in the thread at the close yesterday, there's still room on that parallel price channel...

Oddly enough, the top of that is around the 1110 level at this point...

Besides being the .09 from 1220... 1110 is also the WEEKLY close from the day after Flash Crash (which happened on a Thursday)...

It would classicly HOKEY to close somewhere near 1110...

Then gun it up next week (opex week)... Only to later sell off and have next weeks candle some kind of horrible looking shooting star...

I'm still sitting on my hands here... Fully hedged either way, not predicting the next move...

The only OFFSIDES I happen to find myself on right now is the dollar... But those are FUTURE calls, so it's not really critical at the moment...; September 10, 2010 at 9:01 AM
CV said...: "Here’s a news story that summates the US economy’s problems rather well:

The last major GE factory making ordinary incandescent light bulbs in the United States is closing this month, marking a small, sad exit for a product and company that can trace their roots to Thomas Alva Edison's innovations in the 1870s.

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/07/AR2010090706933.html?wpisrc=nl_headline

Here we have a product, invented by one of America’s Greatest inventors (if not THE greatest), of which the US was the premiere manufacturer, now being manufactured ENTIRELY overseas:

How could this have happened?

What made the plant here vulnerable is, in part, a 2007 energy conservation measure passed by Congress that set standards essentially banning ordinary incandescents by 2014. The law will force millions of American households to switch to more efficient bulbs.

The resulting savings in energy and greenhouse-gas emissions are expected to be immense. But the move also had unintended consequences.

Rather than setting off a boom in the U.S. manufacture of replacement lights, the leading replacement lights are compact fluorescents, or CFLs, which are made almost entirely overseas, mostly in China.

This story, more than anything else I’ve seen in recent weeks, summates beautifully the current political/ economic situation for the US today.

Congress which is comprised of individuals who know nothing about engineering, chemistry, manufacturing, or any other technical know-how, pass a law based on political agenda without even bother to consider the impact on the US economy.

As if that weren’t ignorant enough, Congress then proclaims that the new clean energy policies will CREATE jobs, once again proving they don’t have a clue what they’re talking about when it comes to real economic conditions in the US.

The end result?

An industry that has flourished in the US for over a century, founded by an American genius, has now been entirely outsourced overseas. That’s just one more nail in the coffin for the American manufacturing base. And one more wave of American workers finding themselves at the unemployment line (the last existing plant in Winchester, VA is laying off 200 people this month)."

Phoenix Capital Research; September 10, 2010 at 9:11 AM
McFearless said...: I love that DB is looking for 11 billion....

I'm still leaning toward us going to 1127-1130 here, seen a lot of mention of B wave triangle, seems to be a fairly legit count at this point.

we'll see, probably skate out a little early today, it is one awesome day outside here in DE.; September 10, 2010 at 9:15 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I couldn't help but notice that Norway is buying Greek debt, as they felt the possibility of default was, er, quite small.

And now CR is commenting about U3 rising above 10 as the year ends...

...When I was younger, I think I must have been smarter than I am now. There is an old song about "I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now"...in my case I think I was better able to see the nails in the road earlier...or maybe the road has changed.; September 10, 2010 at 9:15 AM
McFearless said...: was a pretty good game last night, too bad Favre can't show up for camp, they might not have looked so sloppy last night otherwise, Vikings really seemed to miss Rice as well. Colston didn't do much last night but my TE came through with a score.

In the wise words of stiffler's coach

you don't score, until you score.; September 10, 2010 at 9:17 AM
CV said...: The Vikings had a poor game plan (go figure - Brad Childress)...

They wanted to stay away from disaster (Porter & Grier) in the first half so they kept handing the rock to Adrian Peterson...

Luckily for them, the Saints kept trying to strop the ball, so AP wasn't going down on first contact... He kept getting extra yards, the Saints got tired on defense (cause nobody is in full 60 min game shape yet), and it allowed Minny to extend some drives and keep the score close...

The Saints rectified the situation by TACKLING AP better (not going for strips) in the 2nd half...

Enter Brett Favre (who, as you say, was now facing longer down & distances)... At that point, all the Saints had to do was manage the clock...

It could have been a BLOWOUT for the Saints, instead it just turned into a pretty easy win...

The Vikings are going to have a rough start to the year... They still have the Jets, Cowboys, & Packers in the next few weeks...

It might be over before it begins for them... I warned everyone of this...; September 10, 2010 at 9:29 AM
McFearless said...: watch how ridiculous this video here is:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/62560490/

their preconoditions that were necessary for a year end rally are just beyond amazing to me:

QE2
no new capital raising for banks
tax cuts.....
analyst marking down expectations
changing control of congress

talk about someone that is fully entrenched in the exogenous cause model, every single one of which is easily disproven...wow, that's a bit mind numbing.; September 10, 2010 at 9:34 AM
CV said...: Geithner Says China Needs to Let Market Drive Up Yuan

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-08/geithner-says-china-needs-to-let-markets-drive-yuan-higher.html

Excuse me... but does Geithner EVER, I mean EVER have anything else to say...

Not that if he did, I'd want to hear it...; September 10, 2010 at 9:35 AM
CV said...: funniest part of that is "let market"...

WHAT fucking market?; September 10, 2010 at 9:36 AM
CV said...: market? MARKET? Beuller?

Oh yeah... that thing that a collection of small & independent individual capitalists do battle in day in and day out...; September 10, 2010 at 9:38 AM
Peoples Bank of China said...: @Geithner

"China Needs to Let Market Drive Up Yuan"

ROR; September 10, 2010 at 9:40 AM
karen said...: morning! overslept :(
great topic for audible, CV : ); September 10, 2010 at 9:44 AM
McFearless said...: knapp also claims late in the video that if the Bush tax cuts are not extended then it "significantly" increases the chances of a double dip recession.

Um, I'm sorry, but this is about the most moronic statement one could imagine. Logically though, if it were the case, I just had an idea, how about 0 tax on everyone, and therefore...a 0% chance we'd ever have another recession again!

Read My Lips

No Taxes, No Recessions

....bitchez; September 10, 2010 at 9:44 AM
CV said...: @McF

"if the Bush tax cuts are not extended"

Biggest Earners Lose Cost of New BMW After Bush Tax Cuts Expire Next Year

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-10/biggest-earners-lose-cost-of-new-bmw-after-bush-tax-cuts-expire-next-year.html

---

No... LB won't be able to buy a new BMW if the tax cuts aren't extended...; September 10, 2010 at 9:47 AM
CV said...: @karen

I'm goading Andy into what the Sunday Night Post Chart should be...

Hint Hint; September 10, 2010 at 9:49 AM
karen said...: uup at 24 again.. got my coffee but i'm still asleep.; September 10, 2010 at 9:57 AM
karen said...: WASHINGTON (REUTERS) -
The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it sold 10 metric tonnes of gold to the central bank of Bangladesh on Sept. 7, using Tuesday's market prices for the transaction.

The IMF fund has already sold 212 tons of gold to the Reserve Bank of India, the Bank of Mauritius and the central bank of Sri Lanka, all in November last year.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=111048&sn=Detail&pid=92730

While Thursday's sale was modest in size, it drew attention in markets.
"It's only 321,000 ounces, the equivalent of 3,000 COMEX contracts," said Frank McGhee, head precious metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago. "But it can, in general, indicate that the Asian central banks continue to buy and add gold into their reserves, which over the long term is a very healthy thing (for gold)."; September 10, 2010 at 10:03 AM
McFearless said...: that bloom article on taxes is all over the map...they talk about a new york couple earning 1 million, they magically throw in cap gains of 50k....every year (riiiiight, and that's piss poor planning if that's the case, or they are just unreal traders with no tax deferred accounts, btw, ever heard of futures???, mr and mrs. high net worth)

but later it's good because under the ways to avoid it they discuss Roth IRA,. why, I have no clue.

You can't contribute to a Roth if you make that much money, you aren't even in the ballpark of being eligible, and if you were, can anyone name the max contribution....seriously, then look at how many years it takes a roth to beat out a tax deferred account.

then later on....try munis! you avoid some taxes, I mean, you might lose all your money, but hey....no tax.

making investment decisions solely because of taxes is almost never a good idea, no, it never is a good idea....ever heard someone say "I don't want to sell my stock because I'll have to pay taxes on my gains"

I hear it all the time....head scratching follows, I always wonder, well if that's the case, what, exactly, was your goal when you invested....to lose?; September 10, 2010 at 10:04 AM
McFearless said...: The Big Picture takes about three days to load on all my computers now, the ads are taking over that site, it's annoying.; September 10, 2010 at 10:08 AM
karen said...: I'm watching this one.. i missed it the other day and can never get enuf MW..

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/meredith-whitney-wall-streets-biggest-ponzi-scheme-is-how-it-keeps-investors-in-the-dark-on-their-own-investments/; September 10, 2010 at 10:12 AM
McFearless said...: that said, I would suggest people read the Crowd Query thread over there about whether or not Obama was too cautious, some of the comments are eye opening to say the least, I especially enjoy the guy Rodger Malcom Mitchell that posts there.

It's always amazing as a trader to remind yourself of just how deeply held the belief is that the Fed is able to determine outcomes with monetary policy and that intervention always works, if one does it correctly of course. This is a complete denial of historical fact, yet people hold on to it as if we are some new breed of enlightened entities that have it all "figured out", this is aka the potent directors fallacy.

but hey, what should I expect when we live in an era where people write books about how everyone is fooled by randomness, yet they themselves know all the "must have" trades....for those random events.... which are certain...but random; September 10, 2010 at 10:14 AM
CV said...: Can't be half as annoying as the commentary...

See... BR is an idiot and I'll prove it... If he'd just start putting up Glenn Beck ads, then nobody would visit anymore, then the pages would load faster...; September 10, 2010 at 10:14 AM
McFearless said...: watched that yesterday, meredith is great, that was a good interview if you wanted to learn a lot about her background. I'd love to have lunch with her or to work for her.; September 10, 2010 at 10:16 AM
CV said...: Nothing to sink any teeth into here...

I gotta get back to doing the football handicapping for the weekend...

Yesterday's game was a PUSH... Saints favored by 5, they won by 5...

FIGURES!; September 10, 2010 at 10:30 AM
Jennifer said...: Thoughts on the TLT daily chart? Its bumping right up against the 50 -- looks like its due for a bounce. Also -- anybody catch that Lowry's article posted at Traders Narrative suggesting behind the scenes accumulation?; September 10, 2010 at 10:30 AM
Jennifer said...: And who would buy DB today? Arrrgh.; September 10, 2010 at 10:31 AM
Japanese Tan Joe said...: We need a cataRyst...; September 10, 2010 at 10:31 AM
karen said...: MW, "could I be that alone and be right on this"

I feel like that a lot!; September 10, 2010 at 10:33 AM
McFearless said...: "And who would buy DB today?"

Same group that bought all those Citi shares above $4. Or Norway?

this barrier triangle needs to get over with already, I think that's where we are, yelnick has that big chart up today if people need a visual.

C'mon man!; September 10, 2010 at 10:36 AM
McFearless said...: Japanese Tan Joe,

ROR; September 10, 2010 at 10:36 AM
Jennifer said...: I'm getting some CAT puts. You can thank me for any ensuing rally.; September 10, 2010 at 10:41 AM
AmenRa said...: Another head fake at 1110?; September 10, 2010 at 10:43 AM
McFearless said...: I like your style jennifer, I'm not quite ready yet but I'll be in that trade with you when my index charts line up a bit better.; September 10, 2010 at 10:46 AM
Anonymous said...: TLT is at the confluence of the 50-day, the trendline from back in April, the gap from mid-August, and the 61.8% retrace from the late July low. If it doesn't bounce here---someone please tell me what happens next!; September 10, 2010 at 10:48 AM
McFearless said...: Anon,

If it doesn't go up it will go down or sideways.

Hope that helps.; September 10, 2010 at 10:50 AM
CV said...: How many times are we going to repeat this same pattern...

Market races up to over head resistance (twice over the summer - now this)... Hangs there for 5-7 days...

Has a final blowout day over, only to come retreating back, then collapse down to lower support...

Must be some kind of algo nirvana that they teach in algo boarding schools...; September 10, 2010 at 10:52 AM
CV said...: @McF

"If it doesn't go up it will go down or sideways"

Personally, I prefer the 3-D models...; September 10, 2010 at 10:53 AM
karen said...: Bank of America Stock Price to Increase by 30% in Next Year, Bove Says: Rochdale Securities vice president of equi... http://bit.ly/aex3w4; September 10, 2010 at 11:00 AM
karen said...: @mrtopstep said: Obama about to speak $ES_F $NQ_F #futures @TOPNOTCH[09:41:38 AM] SPZ 1104.20 key bias to the buy side at this time. Both futures are still in an inside tradeing range from yesterday, so because of this bias, look for them to test the highs from yesterday $; September 10, 2010 at 11:01 AM
Jennifer said...: CV -- you posted the story about the CFL bulbs -- any comments on the source? I get "promotional" emails from them all the time.; September 10, 2010 at 11:06 AM
Jennifer said...: Unsolved mystery of the universe -- why does anyone listen to Dick Bove anymore?; September 10, 2010 at 11:07 AM
Anonymous said...: Any thoughts on the idea of bulge brackets gunning large caps to finish this month in order to goose their premature remuneration (har har har!)?

I'm thinking that they get the terrified congress critters to renew (at least for a short time) the "Bush tax cuts" and the above becomes moot.; September 10, 2010 at 11:09 AM
karen said...: Moody's: banks to write off another $286 billion in loans through 2011 http://goo.gl/fb/dkEoA; September 10, 2010 at 11:10 AM
karen said...: HAMP modifications on Fannie, Freddie loans up 65% in 2Q http://goo.gl/fb/8LRlj; September 10, 2010 at 11:13 AM
AmenRa said...: Jennifer

After Bove was proven wrong on his earnings call "live" on CNBS he had stayed away from making predictions. I guess he thinks people forgot about that incident.; September 10, 2010 at 11:13 AM
McFearless said...: "why does anyone listen to Dick Bove anymore?"

beard; September 10, 2010 at 11:14 AM
CV said...: @Jennifer

There's a whole topic thread on that at Zero Hedge...

Lots of comments on the engineering of the bulbs themselves, the politics, the manufacturing, risks, etc...

You ought to read through it...

The best way I could sum up my PERSONAL viewpoint is this...

Frankly - I think the SOLUTION to most of the problem of using too much energy is to STOP USING SO MUCH DAMN ENERGY...

I've said this many times...

People (and legislators), tend to try and tackle problems on the SUPPLY side... (either coming up with more supply or WHAT THEY SAY is more efficiency)...

You see this all over the place... One thing that really ANNOYS me are these IBM commercials that say "Let's build a smarter planet"...

BWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHH!

Like the answer to our problems are better microchips so we can go on running the lights full blast in Times Square, downtown Hong Kong, Shanghai, Las Vegas, Macau, or wherever...

Cv thinks a SMARTER PLANET is one where these types of places (or energy demands) don't exist (until - of course - we live in that futuristic Star Trek/Star Wars world that all energy needs are miraculously taken care of by some fictional "di-lithium" crystals which are mined "pollution free" on some OUTPOST planet named "GoreBama" in the nether reaches of the galaxy...

So - as for light bulbs... For now, I'm happy with ANY sort (that don't contain vaporized mercury)...

And guess what... I'll mostly keep them OFF unless I really need them...; September 10, 2010 at 11:21 AM
Anonymous said...: Bove is actually a pretty erudite bank analyst, but he's like a scientist that is too close to his work. I think where he runs into problems is that he always assumes the most optimistic outcome for macro factors and he is almost always a complete tool when it comes to forecasting.; September 10, 2010 at 11:23 AM
Jennifer said...: Sorry CV -- I'm with you on the bulbs, but what I really meant was whether you had an opinion on that Phoenix Capital guy -- I think his name is Graham Summers?; September 10, 2010 at 11:24 AM
CV said...: After reading the comments today...

CV is thinking that if you took the DNA of Dick Bove & Tim Geithner... then started them out at opposite ends of the particle accelerator of the large hadron supercollider... then smashed them together...

You'd get...

- an exceedingly low IQ (somewhere south of Forrest Gump)
- that only knew how to say... "I think that Bank of America will be up 30% next year because the Chinese need to devalue the yuan"
- That has a beard
- And who still has a home for sale on the market

But that's just me...; September 10, 2010 at 11:27 AM
karen said...: from a topstep tweet: CRUDE: retracing to the 100 dma at 76.05 is normal. If it holds there another shot at the upside is eyed. The target is 77.00.$; September 10, 2010 at 11:28 AM
CV said...: @Jennifer

Graham Summers?

I'll get back to you on that... At first blush...

- If he's related to LARRY = BAD
- If he's related to SUZANNE = GOOD

:-); September 10, 2010 at 11:29 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: "Frankly - I think the SOLUTION to most of the problem of using too much energy is to STOP USING SO MUCH DAMN ENERGY..."

I know CV hates my Prius, but the guy at the pump Thursday asked me," Is that all the gas you are going to put into that thing?"

..Yep, I replied.; September 10, 2010 at 11:31 AM
karen said...: Bruce.. great comment, LOL.. had to copy that and send it to my husband.. left off your name of course : ); September 10, 2010 at 11:40 AM
karen said...: My goodness.. I didn't know about this! Death toll rises to six in Bay Area gas explosion 11:33 AM ET 9/10/1

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The death toll from the natural-gas-line explosion in a Bay Area suburb stood at four people Friday morning, with 38 homes destroyed as authorities got a first look in the sunlight at the devastation.

The explosion in a residential section of the city of San Bruno, located south of San Francisco and near San Francisco International Airport, also caused significant damage to seven houses, authorities said.

A state of emergency was declared in the city. In a Friday morning press conference broadcast on local TV stations, Calif. Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado said more than 50 people were treated for injuries. Three of them were in critical condition.; September 10, 2010 at 11:41 AM
karen said...: ugh... i can see the spx at 1130.. hating life right now : (

LOL, not really, but kind of : ); September 10, 2010 at 11:43 AM
CV said...: @Bruce

It's not so much that I hate the Prius...

I mostly hate the notion...

It's become sort of what I'd describe as a superficial "film" or "residue" that I see exists as the top layer of all problem solving these days...

Kind of like "gold plated" jewelry (to use a metaphor)...

It's like most people want to wear these things as a badge... "Looky here - see me? - I'm green"... While that same person drives his/her little Prius back to the 4,000 square foot house that has a large screen TV in every room of the house (and they're all on)...

I'm not saying YOU're in that category (in fact, I rather doubt you are)... But it's the FALSENESS that I see everyday with regards to people TALKING about something, and actually DOING something...

My POV is, if you're going to do something... Go all the way...

The fact is, with the Prius (and technology behind it)... There are not enough "mined" resources to build a world full of Priuses...

So at best, it's a "boutique" (from a mass fleet standpoint)...

Real problem solving will occur when people take steps to curb demand and usage, NOT buy technology & gadgets...

For every Prius that rolls off the assembly line, 100 I-Pads (needing constant re-charging) roll off the assembly line...

I realize that alone isn't enough to QUANTIFY what I'm trying to say... But it points in the direction of my argument...; September 10, 2010 at 11:44 AM
karen said...: CV, do you see hypocrisy in everything?! my word.. my reason for disliking the prius is so shallow.. i'm really feeling bad about myself now ; (; September 10, 2010 at 11:46 AM
CV said...: @Bruce

... & don't get mad at me...

I'm picking Peyton & your Colts to beat Andy's Texans this weekend... lol; September 10, 2010 at 11:46 AM
CV said...: @karen

"do you see hypocrisy in everything?"

That's a broad question...

Answer: I see hypocrisy in many of the people I see driving around a Prius... & there are other things that I see hypocrisy in...

Occasionally too... I point that finger at myself...

If you want to apply that to "everything", be my guest...; September 10, 2010 at 11:49 AM
karen said...: The way I conserve.. fuel for instance.. is to use less.. I don't just hop in my car and run out for something.. but plan my trips for efficiency in mind (time and fuel) doing 3 errands at once for instance... Sitting in a car is not fun for me.. so i'm not sure my motives arent purely altruistic..

I am hardwired for efficiency however.. hate waste in any form.. my father-in-law gave me a great compliment once.. said, Karen just needs to walk thru a room and everything falls into place.

Of course, doing too many things at once doesn't always work!! Laughing.. then I have to berate myself.. sorry for the missive.; September 10, 2010 at 11:51 AM
CV said...: Which reminds me of a funny moment...

When I was younger (and renting a house in California with my brother and this other guy Tony)...

...one day Tony says to my brother...

"You know... I'm a hypocrite, and you're an a**hole..."

then he turns and points to me and says...

"but CV, you're basically a hypocritical a**hole"...

---

It's 25 years later and we all still laugh hysterically over that one...; September 10, 2010 at 11:53 AM
Jennifer said...: CV -- thanks for the laugh! Back to mom duty now, time for preschool pickup.; September 10, 2010 at 11:54 AM
Jennifer said...: Oh -- my CAT puts are up 5% -- don't jinx them while I'm gone. Its my first good trade in a couple of days.; September 10, 2010 at 11:55 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Oh, I understand CV. Sometimes when my wife and I sit in the morning and review the markets before I head off to the salt mine, I think about something Longfellow wrote years ago.

Aftermath

When the summer fields are mown,
When the birds are fledged and flown,
And the dry leaves strew the path;
With the falling of the snow,
With the cawing of the crow,
Once again the fields we mow
And gather in the aftermath.
Not the sweet, new grass with flowers
Is this harvesting of ours;
Not the upland clover bloom;
But the rowen mixed with weeds,
Tangled tufts from marsh and meads,
Where the poppy drops its seeds
In the silence and the gloom.; September 10, 2010 at 11:58 AM
karen said...: big news.. anyone else seeing this?

RT @zerohedge: Volcker says sustainability of euro in "real jeopardy"//uh oh, time to start planning European vacation; September 10, 2010 at 12:07 PM
CV said...: @karen

Not that I want to get in to a debate on the subject... But let me point out an ANGLE on what I'm talking about (with regards to energy usage)...

A belief of mine is that it starts IN THE HOME...

Think of it this way... Let's say the GOVERNMENT wants to get into the REGULATION business...

Fine... Why not do it this way? Start "rationing" electricity... It ought to be easy to do... Just have the electric company, or gas company shut off your electricity when you've reached your monthly quota...

- People with SPECIAL NEEDS (medical, or whatever), could apply for what they needed...

- Any OVERAGE could be bought at a high rate... So if you're rich feel it's your God given right to gorge yourself on energy, you pay for it...

- or, it doesn't have to be that draconic... Simply ALERT people that over "x" amount of watt hours used, the rate of usage would quadruple...

I think you'd find people would be pretty quick to modify their behavior... They'd find ways that they never thought they could before... (I mean right down to hanging a few clothes on a wire, or not eating toast in the morning to save a few watts)... This would ESPECIALLY be a good lesson for kids (who are probably the biggest hogs)...

I'm just blurting this stuff out right now... But I do so, and perhaps even in an idiotic way, to CONTINUE to point out that people haven't even lifted a finger to address these issues yet...

It's no different from out banking problems...; September 10, 2010 at 12:07 PM
karen said...: just got this from twitter but it looks like an interesting site to explore!

http://www.greenhomesforsale.com/listing.php?id=18861; September 10, 2010 at 12:09 PM
CV said...: "time to start planning European vacation"

Great - a European Vacation!... And to think, just yesterday we learned how to smuggle all our coke and extacy tablets over there...

SWEET!; September 10, 2010 at 12:09 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I think Peyton wins too, but the preseason (like every Colts preseason) looked awful. I will be in the Smokies Sunday and won't see the game. And heading out now for playtime with the Mizzus. Back late tonight.

Saw the Clooney movie last night. Liked it a lot. There are many plot elements that aren't explained in the movie, and my wife and I talked them out on the way home.

...Later.; September 10, 2010 at 12:10 PM
CV said...: Later Bruce...; September 10, 2010 at 12:11 PM
AmenRa said...: Why can't Obama stay off the tube? I've seen more of him than any other President in history.; September 10, 2010 at 12:12 PM
Nic said...: Thanks for quoting me CV :) hehe

AUDUSD is at a big trendline resistance from July08 highs. If it fails to break then could be a good signal for a risk off week next week. That pair is my canary in the coalmine for risk.; September 10, 2010 at 12:15 PM
CV said...: @karen

Personally... I think that fully integrated "green homes" are still a long way off...

Simply because a lot of the technology is going to change...

Amen - here, the other day was talking about Thorium reactors and the like... I still don't know as much as I should about them, but it sounds promising...

IOW - Everyone, now doesn't need to be going out and laying top dollar on expensive things like solar and wind... Only to find them relatively obsolete in years to come...

Remember that TOP OF THE LINE 8 TRACK TAPE PLAYER you bought in the 70's...?

How about that Gordon Gekko cellphone? Hmmmm...?

Baby steps... Baby steps... (and shut the lights off while you're making those baby steps)...; September 10, 2010 at 12:15 PM
Nic said...: SELL GOLD NAAAAAAAAAOOOOOOW; September 10, 2010 at 12:15 PM
I-Man said...: Ra @ 12:12

Narcissism?; September 10, 2010 at 12:16 PM
karen said...: Bruce, thanks for the Longfellow... didn't help my spirits, tho.; September 10, 2010 at 12:17 PM
CV said...: @Nic

At this point... RISK OFF seems to be on tap...

That's why the thread has devolved into a soliloquy of CV talking energy conservation...; September 10, 2010 at 12:17 PM
Abe Lincoln said...: I never appeared on TV...

& that's NO LIE; September 10, 2010 at 12:19 PM
Nic said...: This week has been choppy as heck, you could lose limbs in this nonsense. Jewsish and Muslim holidays and no volume. Here is hoping next week is better.; September 10, 2010 at 12:20 PM
karen said...: is the $compq a tell? choppy as heck and i am seasick from it.; September 10, 2010 at 12:22 PM
karen said...: take a look at bac, c, gs.. point out anything bullish that you see, pls.; September 10, 2010 at 12:29 PM
CV said...: @Nic

I've been saying this for the past few days now...

Coming into view... (soon, within a few weeks)... ought to be a scenario where the VIX revisits the lower WEEKLY BB's...

To me, that tends to be one of the tells of all tells...

It is one of those moments where the markets are actually, usually, charged with optimism... Then... UH OH...

What accompanies that moment is usually some statement (from some FAST MONEY analyst), that only a CATALYST would bring the market down...

Of course, after a big correction (like FLASH CRASH), everyone starts looking at VIX levels again, and recognizes that in hindsight...

If next week is RISK OFF, and VIX stays low, therefore... We're likely to see that within the end of the month...

This was the exact same set-up into the April highs...; September 10, 2010 at 12:30 PM
McFearless said...: Obama thought he was going to be part of reality TV....clearly, he is always on Ra.

Karen,

the only thing that worries me about those bank stocks, remember about 3-4 weeks ago that giant put spread that was done on the XLF? That was a big player that put that on, they talked about it in the VIX sonar report weeks ago.; September 10, 2010 at 12:33 PM
karen said...: an argument against adding gold to your portfolio

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=111030&sn=Detail&pid=92730; September 10, 2010 at 12:34 PM
McFearless said...: I caught a gnome nibbling on one of my gold coins last night, it had a beard even.; September 10, 2010 at 12:35 PM
Nic said...: I agree CV and US 10 Yr Yields faces monster Fib resistance zone towards 2.81%.
If equities rollover there will ensure good USD bottom; September 10, 2010 at 12:39 PM
CV said...: @Nic

I'm going to put a WEEKLY VIX chart in this thread to illustrate...; September 10, 2010 at 12:41 PM
McFearless said...: I have RUT in a corrective wave 4 right now...and magically, another triangle, because that's all we get anymore.

I'll attempt to play wave five, but really i'd like to get in on the retrace of those five waves down because next leg there should be a really good one.; September 10, 2010 at 12:42 PM
karen said...: for ben, El-Erian Says Economy Needs `Structural Solutions': Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPme7Zoh8-Q; September 10, 2010 at 12:46 PM
CV said...: @karen (12:46)

ROR...

All I can say is... I'm happy we have all these people around...

Now I know how it feels to be a "pre-revolution" French peasant, and therefore don't have to blow $20 bucks on a movie ticket and bucket of popcorn to SEE what it was all like...

@Amen

There u go again... POPCORN!; September 10, 2010 at 12:50 PM
McFearless said...: it's hard to listen to him speak...; September 10, 2010 at 12:51 PM
CV said...: @Nic (or anyone interested)

NEW CHART IN THREAD

This is what I'm talking about on the VIX...

And my definition of "how it mirrors" some of the pre-APRIL 1220 high was reflected in these same threads (and comments), that CV published back then...

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_uq2KcmM6MLM/S8hVfm2SyGI/AAAAAAAAAyM/I-TX---xhgM/s1600/spx_4610_durations.JPG

This thread:

http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/04/morning-audibles-41410-cant-drive-55.html

These charts:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uq2KcmM6MLM/S8W4JcMZc3I/AAAAAAAAAxs/-6Xhj41pvDc/s1600/VIX_weekly.JPG

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uq2KcmM6MLM/S8W4GJTuN2I/AAAAAAAAAxk/NRYIVHdd3F8/s1600/VIX_Daily.JPG; September 10, 2010 at 12:53 PM
McFearless said...: I need a new hugh hendry video soon, havent' seen him in some time now; September 10, 2010 at 12:54 PM
Nic said...: Thx CV
Looking now; September 10, 2010 at 12:56 PM
karen said...: i actually thot that was a good listen.. interesting tho that he conceded the ten year could drop down to 2.5 or a bit lower on a QE 2 infusion..

I like what he said about deleveraging.. it is my working thesis, btw.. and it takes years to accomplish..; September 10, 2010 at 12:57 PM
McFearless said...: CV,

EWI is harping on the VIX right now as well, they like the sell signal it's given since it's only happened twice this year and both led to some nice sell-offs.; September 10, 2010 at 12:57 PM
Nic said...: Great article from ZH about how government slacks topticked Gold
http://bit.ly/aLGy7g; September 10, 2010 at 12:57 PM
CV said...: @McF

Do you ever see Bruce Wayne & Batman in a room together?

---

LB has been "around" lately (kind of - when he's not wasting his time)...

Now - LB, we think, is in London...

Could a Hugh Hendry sighting be imminent?; September 10, 2010 at 12:58 PM
CV said...: @McF

The VIX WEEKLY BB's are one of McHughs favorites as well...

CV's too... (as I find they end up to be those things that tend to happen OUT OF NOWHERE, and NOT when the "Tan Joes" of the world are waiting on a CATALYST)...

Andy T just posted here yesterday... We don't want the market to sell off on BAD NEWS, we want it to sell off on GOOD NEWS...

Right?; September 10, 2010 at 1:01 PM
McFearless said...: alright, here's the deal, Goldman has made basically one horrific call after another this year, Morgan Stanley too.

So, it begs the question.

Who is "they"?; September 10, 2010 at 1:03 PM
karen said...: this is really bad on the gas leak and explosion:

http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local-beat/PGE-Investigating-Complaints-of-Gas-Smell-in-San-Bruno-102625569.html; September 10, 2010 at 1:04 PM
McFearless said...: Well, the last top call I made with the fibo work was +/- 2 days from 8/12, a few weeks back i gave 9/12 as the next date, ihave the chart hanging above my computer right now from July when I came up with these two dates...we'll see if it works, but that book I suggested, it's rapidly improving my trading.; September 10, 2010 at 1:06 PM
CV said...: @Nic

One thing that I see is that the VELOCITY of the FLASH CRASH skewed the "bubble" on the BB's so much... That at this point, they're in a highly accelerated upwards slope...

IOW - Even if the VIX just "hangs" here (around 22) for a week or two, that lower BB is going to INTERCEPT the candle by the end of the month...

Now... If you ADD a potential breakout to 1130 in equities next week (with, say, the VIX pushing down to 21 or 20 & change - because it's Rosh Hashanah - Yom Kippur break)...

There's your CATALYST right there...; September 10, 2010 at 1:07 PM
karen said...: i find it insane the isrg trades at 280..
axp is down today..; September 10, 2010 at 1:07 PM
Nic said...: Contrarian signals, Its different this time
'Gold is the best asset class to be in' http://tgr.ph/c33691; September 10, 2010 at 1:08 PM
CV said...: @McF

"So, it begs the question.

Who is "they"?"

---

Why naturally... THE BILDERBERG ZIONIST CONSPIRACY - lol; September 10, 2010 at 1:09 PM
McFearless said...: Nic,

do you view silver as a viable short as well or do you prefer gold at this point?

I still really can't get a read on the silver charts.

help!; September 10, 2010 at 1:09 PM
CV said...: @karen

"axp is down today..."

That's just because CV called them yesterday to cancel my Centurion Card...

Nothing to see here... MOVE ON...; September 10, 2010 at 1:11 PM
McFearless said...: "Centurion Card"

kanye prefers the term African American Express.

Say what you will about Kanye, but some of his rhymes are just awesome, or I think they are.

mayonnaise colored benz I push miracle whips

that's another one.; September 10, 2010 at 1:14 PM
McFearless said...: MCO is up nearly 30% since mid June, keeping an eye on that one.; September 10, 2010 at 1:17 PM
Nic said...: McF - I do. Im getting really bullish USD for the next little while.; September 10, 2010 at 1:17 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Ben,

Just catching up and have been quite busy since back to work - what book did you mention that is helping your trading?

As for the charts, I"m seeing two things with drastically different outcomes:

I see a triangle forming off yesterdays highs at the open.

BUT

I also see an ending diagonal in to today's highs and it appears to be confirmed by both SPX and DOW. In the DOW it would be a truncated fifth and in the SPX it reached equality.

I have been looking at alt counts and I can see the case/count for a triple three forming. My only problem is (and this is my understanding only, correct me if I'm wrong) the Z should be higher than Y and the Y higher than W i.e. the peaks are slanting upwards.; September 10, 2010 at 1:22 PM
McFearless said...: Nic,

I'm there on the dollar, I did close one recent position because of how that started to look but I'm exposed in a decent way right now...I own calls but none of them expire until 2011, I'm looking for some short term options here next.; September 10, 2010 at 1:23 PM
McFearless said...: McHappy,

It's the Constance Brown fibonacci analysis book, it's fibotastic baby!

Nic has it as well and she agrees, I think it's a good match up to EWP which I know you are probably looking at daily, has really helped me to apply the fibo's properly.; September 10, 2010 at 1:24 PM
karen said...: Retail stocks rise for 3rd day; Lululemon shines
9/10/10 NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Retail stocks rose for a third day in the holiday-shortened week, with yoga-inspired athletic-clothing retailer Lululemon Athletica Inc. leading the gainers.

(whatever you do, do not look at the lulu chart!); September 10, 2010 at 1:25 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Thanks, Ben.; September 10, 2010 at 1:27 PM
karen said...: $nya trended up 3 days ago.. can't find anything bearish about that chart at all.; September 10, 2010 at 1:28 PM
karen said...: long term view of $nya if you can pull this up:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&id=p45236901427&def=N&listNum=1; September 10, 2010 at 1:30 PM
CV said...: @McF

remember what happened last time that you exited too early on bucky? :-); September 10, 2010 at 1:31 PM
CV said...: @karen

(whatever you do, do not look at the lulu chart!)

---

I leave that kind of stuff for ROBOT TRADER to deal with...; September 10, 2010 at 1:32 PM
McFearless said...: mcHappy,

are you counting an ED in the C wave?

we would prefer to see ED's in wave 5 rather than C but I've seen others mention this count this morning so I see where you come up with it, but man I'm so careful because of how rare you see the ED in the C wave. Also, I don't like the "look" just yet on the dow because fifth wave in the ED often has a throw over, plus, the examples of these I've studied you usually get a spike in volume right at the end of it and we haven't really seen that yet, but a move slightly higher would probably do the trick.

I think the spirit of the ED is correct right now though, that being:

dramatic reversal ahead

I'll keep an eye....did you check out that count on Yelnick?:

http://yelnick.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c563953ef0133f409a73e970b-popup; September 10, 2010 at 1:35 PM
McFearless said...: C,

oh yeah, I remember man...but that one I closed recently I had a very nice profit on so it was ok, never feel quite as confident with the dollar as I can with other trades.

I mean...it's the dollar after all.; September 10, 2010 at 1:37 PM
karen said...: (Reuters) - U.S. crude rose more than 2 percent to $76 a barrel on Friday following the shutdown of a major pipeline supplying Canadian oil to the United States, but a leading forecaster said world demand would remain tepid.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6810XU20100910; September 10, 2010 at 1:39 PM
karen said...: will xlf turn trend up? if it doess that is absolutely effing it.. will have to throw in the towel.. take my marbles and go home.. whatever.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&id=p38298062762&def=N&listNum=1; September 10, 2010 at 1:42 PM
karen said...: Nouriel

Hot potato game:China reduces its $ FX reserves to 65%, buys JBGs/Yen & other currencies & forces others to intervene to avoid appreciation; September 10, 2010 at 1:42 PM
CV said...: @McF

"never feel quite as confident with the dollar as I can with other trades."

"I mean...it's the dollar after all."

---

I'm going to say something right now that I think only YOU could appreciate...

I"M GOING TO TAKE THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT LOGIC...

The dollar (probably given the span of the rest of my lifetime)... will probably turn out to be the crappiest thing to own in history...

And that's why I'm most confident in it, IN THE NEAR TERM...

CV has stumbled on the realization that "money" flows into the the WORST of all possible investments in times of trouble...

The ONLY thing that I can RELY on at the moment is...

That there will be trouble... Therefore, you can count on the dollar... Only when we GET to that trouble, will be the moment that people find they're all parked there and it won't vbe the place to be...

So for now... I'm cool... :-); September 10, 2010 at 1:44 PM
karen said...: this gives me a headache:

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Moody's Corp. (MCO) was the top performer in the Standard & Poor's 500 index Friday on hopes the rating agency's shares will benefit from strong credit markets and easing regulations.

Shares climbed 6.5% to $25.09 in recent trading after an upgrade to overweight from neutral by Piper Jaffray. Analyst Peter Appert said he believes Moody's will continue to see revenue boosted by the recent flood of corporate borrowers selling debt that needs to be graded; September 10, 2010 at 1:44 PM
CV said...: @karen

Crude longs are getting poleaxed today...

I'm sure that was NOT worth mentioning...; September 10, 2010 at 1:45 PM
karen said...: Nouriel

China outsources its $ intervention to Japan & other countries by purchasing less $ & more Yen & other currencies: source of currency fight; September 10, 2010 at 1:45 PM
karen said...: CV, you mean crude shorts..; September 10, 2010 at 1:45 PM
karen said...: iShares Russell 2000 hovering just above flat line within week long range
1:39 PM ET 9/10/10 | Briefing.com
The IWM was higher three of the previous four days but little has been accomplished as it has formed a narrowing trading range (triangle) between its 200 day sma on the upside and its 50 day ema/sma on the downside. While it may prove difficult to see much follow through on a low volume Friday during a holiday shortened week in the midst of a religious holiday, we have well established parameters to monitor.; September 10, 2010 at 1:47 PM
karen said...: I have at least one promising proposition today: a watermelon martini!; September 10, 2010 at 1:48 PM
McFearless said...: strong credit markets and easing regulations!!!

UFB

you really couldn't make this stuff up if you wanted to, why does everyone believe in efficient markets?; September 10, 2010 at 1:48 PM
McFearless said...: how about a watermelon to the face martini?; September 10, 2010 at 1:49 PM
McFearless said...: I need to play some golf today, or at least go to the range, it's just too nice outside.; September 10, 2010 at 1:49 PM
karen said...: i dig the spx chart in this article:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/euro-edges-up-as-china-data-boosts-risk-appetite-2010-09-10?siteid=rss&rss=1; September 10, 2010 at 1:49 PM
McFearless said...: I like this Dr. J guy, he posts a lot at kenny's and sometimes at Dan's...check out all these wedgies he's showing:

http://www.screencast.com/users/doctor_jr/folders/Jing/media/abab2f2f-563c-49bc-b3b2-380c01f56ec5; September 10, 2010 at 1:51 PM
McFearless said...: those would actually align with what McHappy is talking about up there with the ED.; September 10, 2010 at 1:53 PM
karen said...: i'm having a decidedly miserable day and i don't smell a change in the air..

it is spectacularly beautiful here today and should be all weekend.. that is one element I do know how to use to my advantage.; September 10, 2010 at 1:53 PM
CV said...: @karen

"will xlf turn trend up? if it doess that is absolutely effing it.. will have to throw in the towel."

---

C'Mon... If you've learned ONE THING this year, what is it?

It's that you can't SHORT anymore until you see the "whites of their eyes"...

The THEY that was referred to earlier isn't the famous "THEY" of the government keeping equity markets docile until the elections crap that you read on other blogs...

The "THEY", are the HFT algos that are most likely trading along an algo pattern to make the TECHNICALS turn bullish (or bring the "simpleton" technicals to the very brink of bullishness in the hopes that that FINAL STRAW will descend (in slow motion) from the sky and break all the camels (bears) backs...

It costs nothing to have these things cycle over and over again in the hopes that Johnny retail is going to come back once more and hold the bag... (as he has diligently done for the past 3 decades)...

Newsflash... It ain't gonna happen this time...

Johnny has gone home...

But the point of recognition hasn't been reached yet by the programmers of the algos...

We'll get there...; September 10, 2010 at 1:54 PM
CV said...: @karen (1:45)

yeah... obviously I meant crude shorts...; September 10, 2010 at 1:55 PM
CV said...: BTW...

CV went short gold today...

Not that anyone is interested...; September 10, 2010 at 2:00 PM
McFearless said...: you have huge balls; September 10, 2010 at 2:01 PM
McFearless said...: course, when you have a big ole stash of physical, you aren't risking much shorting gold in dollars.; September 10, 2010 at 2:02 PM
karen said...: http://www.businessinsider.com/gold-is-a-religion-2010-9; September 10, 2010 at 2:02 PM
McFearless said...: oh man.....psu v bama....I'm starting to get sweaty

Andy T is going down all the way by Monday night....my boys are coming to play this weekend.; September 10, 2010 at 2:03 PM
McFearless said...: gold is most certainily not a religion...religion involves belief in something for which there is no physical evidence... it involves faith.

I've actually held gold

C'mon Man!; September 10, 2010 at 2:04 PM
karen said...: LOL.. of course we are interested! i have 2k shares of dzz @ $10.94.. that's all i'm doing.. and 60k shares of nxg.; September 10, 2010 at 2:04 PM
karen said...: ben, you should post that in the comments section.. i was disappointed in the slideshow.. there were a couple good ones.. it was meant as a spoof anyway. nothing is very funny to me today.. perhaps i should rewatch watermelon girl. but that makes me laugh till i cry : ); September 10, 2010 at 2:06 PM
McFearless said...: karen,

you ever worry about getting out of that nxg all at once? that might be tuff to fill.; September 10, 2010 at 2:07 PM
McFearless said...: watch that podium speech for treasurer, that has to make you smile.

listen to soul sister by train, that's good for the mood.; September 10, 2010 at 2:08 PM
karen said...: Ben, you just made me laugh with your suggestions.. thanks!

on nxg.. don't plan to get out ALL at once.. but i'll tell you the norm a few years ago was several mill in vol per day.. not this few hundred k per day..; September 10, 2010 at 2:14 PM
karen said...: JFC.. (sorry, but my drv is still underwater.)

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/one-five-hotel-backed-loans-now-delinquent; September 10, 2010 at 2:16 PM
McFearless said...: yeah I see the average volume is way higher than today....volume is weak all over today, makes me think we are going to bust UP out of the triangle (on S&P/DOW, etc), not that I'd bet on that though, just watch and wait and see what happens.; September 10, 2010 at 2:16 PM
karen said...: well, if we bust up, i'll slit my wrists.. unless my home value goes up a couple mill with the market..; September 10, 2010 at 2:17 PM
karen said...: cept.. $tran not looking all that bullish..
neg divergence on my $wlsh trend chart (tho it turned up today).. so we're seeing the whites of their eyes now..; September 10, 2010 at 2:20 PM
McFearless said...: hey now....no wrist slashing, get a belly button ring instead.; September 10, 2010 at 2:20 PM
CV said...: Here's a "half baked" theory of mine...

I don't think it's far fetched to think that GOLD is a central bankers worst enemy...

So let's say JPM & the FRB are one in the same... & let's say that JPM has used whatever means it has at its disposal to try and keep gold prices down...

You have to think that I'm not being TOTALLY CONSPIRACY WHACKO when I'm saying that... People, too often, make the mistake, of thinking that just because somebody might be operating in a clandestine way, then it's a VAST CONSPIRACY...

No... it's not like that... I operate a Fantasy Football team... & I publish thoughts on the web... HERE... It's not out of the realm of possibility that I "seed", or "publish" football thoughts that confuse my opponents into creating a greater or lesser value for players (or strategy)... In fact - I admit that I do it all the time...

I'm not CHEATING... I'm not even LYING... I'm just trying to shake out my WEAKER foes (the ones who have not done their own research - and might be swayed by my opinion points)... I have NO REAL POWER to effect an outcome... IOW - I cannot LEVERAGE someone to trade me Chris Johnson for some hack that I drafted in the 6th round (no matter how much I build up the "illusion" of his value because he had a good week against the fucking Chiefs...

Now apply this to JPM...

Anyway... RE GOLD... My "instincts" tell me that JPM (assuming they'd been doing this, say, for the past decade - [trying to keep gold prices down]), have finally come to the conclusion that they screwed themselves, and are ACTUALLY behind the 8-ball now...

So NOW it IS time to launch the "nuclear option"... And the timeframe is going to happen to be short on this...

So we might see gold trade down near $1000 (hopefully in the $900's - but that might just be a dream)...

The banks will want to get their grubby mitts on as much of it as possible at that point (hopefully - using strong dollars - which is kind of a dopey thing to say - but there IS a sideline argument to that which I won't get in to)...

Anyway - that's the broad outline of my "half baked" theory...; September 10, 2010 at 2:23 PM
CV said...: @McF

"course, when you have a big ole stash of physical, you aren't risking much shorting gold in dollars."

BAM... u got it... The "short" I put on today in paper gold is, like 1/50th the value of physical...

Fucking beer money - lol... (& not even "Stella" beer money... More like Natty Boh)...; September 10, 2010 at 2:26 PM
karen said...: CV.. not half baked at all.. i'm counting on it, actually : )

Furthermore.. you look at the ten year chart of gold.. it needs to tap its 50 ma sometime in the next ten years.. if not the 100 or 200 ma.. 850-900 is still not out of line for the end of the year.. (except we are coming into a good time for gold.); September 10, 2010 at 2:28 PM
CV said...: @McF

& sorry to say...

Your boys are going to get CRUSHED in Tuscaloosa this weekend...

I hate to say it... I'm NOT a Crimson Tide fan...

I effin' HATE the SEC, as a matter of fact...

Mostly... I root for NAVY... Of course I share the USC allegiance with Andy, but these are tough times in So Cal (and I think Lane Kiffin is a jerk)...

Lean times in NCAA football for CV...

So... Go Midshipmen!... & NFL.. Go Ravens!; September 10, 2010 at 2:30 PM
Nic said...: Re McFearless 1:24 book comment
I uploaded it, you may download here:

https://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0B7not0MAZdrXYTUxZTUyNzItYzcyYi00YzFjLWJiYmItODNmMWU2ODgwNmE5&hl=en&authkey=CLXlz_IN; September 10, 2010 at 2:30 PM
karen said...: Ben, i'd rather slit my wrists, LOL! I'm disgusted I even have two holes in each earlobe.. though i pretend the second set isn't there.. did it with an needle and ice cube when i was 17... rolling my eyes.. they never healed over ; (; September 10, 2010 at 2:30 PM
CV said...: @karen

I'm glad you liked that theory (really am)...

Jeez... I tell you, if those technicals you point out come to pass...

CV will... without hesitation.., go ALL to gold and probably never trade anything else...

No I take that back... I'll hold 10% back in reserve to trade for fun... Either that, or just go enter the WORLD SERIES OF POKER to get my "gambling" jones on...; September 10, 2010 at 2:33 PM
McFearless said...: C,

I got a bad feeling about my lions this weekend, can't disagree there, not sure they are really ready for that.

also, enjoyed that post at 2:23, and I also like the movie half baked.

wesley pipes; September 10, 2010 at 2:35 PM
McFearless said...: well guys, I'm gonna get out of here, got some things to wrap up and I'm going to start the weekend a little early, enjoy the close and that possible melt up, be around here and there over the weekend. we should have a big week to look forward to.; September 10, 2010 at 2:36 PM
karen said...: will you guys PLEASE track down a copy of Ferdinand Lips "Gold Wars" and read it ??!!

when i got into gold.. these players were all still alive.. you gotta read that book.. it's not written in the vein of "The Creature from Jekyll Island" if that is what you are thinking.; September 10, 2010 at 2:38 PM
mcHAPPY said...: @Ben

The ED count I see would be a part of C.

I didn't see the count anywhere else - my own thoughts.

As you know, I subscribe to the STU from EWI which I check MWF but I do not visit any other EW site regularly - maybe once a week just to see what others are thinking. I noticed a few days ago that Daneric had similar outcomes in our counts but we came to it in different ways.; September 10, 2010 at 2:38 PM
karen said...: see you, ben.. pity CV.. stuck with me the rest of the day.; September 10, 2010 at 2:39 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Ben/Karen 2:20

Forget wrist slashing and belly button rings - go for a tramp stamp.; September 10, 2010 at 2:40 PM
karen said...: I really might have to take my marbles out of the ring:

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/9/10/using-the-past-to-predict-the-future.html; September 10, 2010 at 2:40 PM
CV said...: @karen

"850-900 is still not out of line for the end of the year.. (except we are coming into a good time for gold.)"

---

Hold on a minute there... '08 & '06 marked "lows" on gold for the year in October (well- '06 not exactly, but almost)...

Both were ELECTION years (God I'm starting to "hate" that moronic reference)...

So u never kno...; September 10, 2010 at 2:40 PM
McFearless said...: McHappy,

should have clarified, meant to ask if you had seen that count at Yelnick though it's completely different than what you are counting right now....anyway, take a look when you get a chance.; September 10, 2010 at 2:42 PM
karen said...: oh brother.. if you subtract 6% from where we are now.. as indicated by the bespoke link you get 1042..; September 10, 2010 at 2:43 PM
McFearless said...: now I really gotta go...peace.; September 10, 2010 at 2:43 PM
mcHAPPY said...: @Nic 2:30

Thanks so much for that link! Thank you so very very very much!!!; September 10, 2010 at 2:43 PM
karen said...: forget it! those charts aren't alike.. we've tapped 1040 way more times than the 60's comp..; September 10, 2010 at 2:44 PM
CV said...: STUCK? KAREN?

It does not compute... :-); September 10, 2010 at 2:46 PM
karen said...: CV.. you are right.. i was thinking more nov-dec as high times for gold.. but even then, last dec was quite unpleasant for gold..; September 10, 2010 at 2:46 PM
CV said...: @Nic (2:30)

Thumbs up! Nice catch!; September 10, 2010 at 2:47 PM
CV said...: @karen

I keep having to remind myself... (which I do happen to do with discipline)...

That when I think in terms of gold, I have to think in "multi-decade" and/or in CENTURY timeframes...; September 10, 2010 at 2:48 PM
karen said...: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajm8Pvdn2gFc

Air China Will Buy Four Boeing 777s at ‘Significant’ Discount; September 10, 2010 at 2:52 PM
karen said...: not much on the econ table for monday, data-wise.. tuesday is retail sales; September 10, 2010 at 2:54 PM
CV said...: Also...

I've said this before (which is something which you have tended to NOT EXACTLY agree with)...

On the DIP that I HOPE will manifest... I'm looking at possibly being more interested in going SILVER...

COINS (which are "perfect" because pre-1964 they are cut up into precise and perfect instruments)...

It's all a matter of how you're positioned...

Higher up the ladder?... Physical?... Gold is surely a no brainer...

But I'm the "practical" type... I tend to not think of things in terms of aggregate wealth, but instead, in terms of TRANSACTIONS...

Put it this way... If it happens, that, in a decade or so (while a new world currency is being decided upon)... If you need to go somewhere locally and buy a bag of wheat or barley, you're going to get along very well with a stack of MERCURY DIMES better than you're going to get along with a gold ingot...

It's like going to the local 7-11 with a $1000 bill and wanting to buy a SLIM JIM or packet of DENTYNE...

If you get the picture...; September 10, 2010 at 2:58 PM
karen said...: the hour just struck 12.. (there is a mock belltower across the street.. i love it! chimes the hours from 9AM to 5PM, or maybe 6).. anyway, so ominous for a trading day here because it means one hour to go..; September 10, 2010 at 3:04 PM
karen said...: here is the reason drv/srs should be in the gutter..

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/09/10/troubled-commercial-loans-may-be-near-the-peak-real-capital; September 10, 2010 at 3:10 PM
CV said...: @karen

I <3 belltowers...

My word, every town in Italy had one...

Besides the one at CASTELLO DEL ANTOGNOLLA (my home), which was a church built in the 11th century... Which was broken & silent...

The nearest one was at CAPOCAVALLO...

I loved to listen to that thing...

Aside from the one at Corso Vanucci (in Perugia)...; September 10, 2010 at 3:14 PM
karen said...: Andy Xie! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMxZshIYVC4; September 10, 2010 at 3:17 PM
CV said...: "Air China Will Buy Four Boeing 777s at ‘Significant’ Discount"

Correction:

Air China, funded by PBC, will buy 4 Boeing 777's at discount... reverse engineer them under government sponsored program...

and tell Boeing to SHOVE their next 100 orders...

---

In similar news:

AJC places "BA" on the conviction BUY list...

---

In similar news:

TOPSTEP - GS "buys" 500 PUT contracts on BA...; September 10, 2010 at 3:18 PM
Random Internet Sweep said...: In similar news:

Thor (from andytsexgang.com): "Hmmm! Looks like China is buying Dreamliners. Could it really be that their economy is on the rise? What say ye?; September 10, 2010 at 3:24 PM
CV said...: @Amen

C'MON MAN... Where is it... Oh THERE it is... MY 9:01) this morning... One of my MANY, daily, bullsh*t comments (that I publish on a daily basis - or WEEKLY basis - as the case may be)...

- 1110.88 (high on 5/7 - weekly close - day after FLASH CRASH)

- 1110.56 (here we are with a half hour to go)...

How fucking hokey is this... CV asks... again... lol; September 10, 2010 at 3:30 PM
karen said...: CV.. i kno, right?!; September 10, 2010 at 3:34 PM
CV said...: CV is trying out a new avatar...

I just realized that it was MY FAULT (not George Bush) that the DOW rallied this week...

Sorry... MY BAD...

I'll give you all about 2 more days to push this thing higher... Then I'm pulling the string...

Note to bulls: DON'T bet all your winnings on PENN STATE on Saturday; September 10, 2010 at 3:34 PM
karen said...: (Dow Jones)--The Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday expanded the trading halts it implemented following the May 6 "flash crash" to include more securities and outlined criteria for when stock exchanges should break erroneous trades.

The SEC also said its staff is working with stock exchanges to bar the use of "stubb" quotes, dummy quotes that aren't intended to indicate trading interest.; September 10, 2010 at 3:35 PM
karen said...: 1110.88 today's high so far..; September 10, 2010 at 3:35 PM
karen said...: i can't find a lower volume spy until Dec 31.. and that christmas-new year's week..

add that to your hokey.; September 10, 2010 at 3:43 PM
CV said...: @karen

1110.88 was tagged at 15:33...

My post was at 15:30...

NOW... Today's high & Friday close after FLASH crash = the same tick...

Hmmm...; September 10, 2010 at 3:44 PM

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Morning Audibles 9.10.10 - OK This Is Weird

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