TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 9.27.10

Morning Audibles 9.27.10

Whoda thunkit?

Apparently... nobody gives a FF about bankers, 'Wall Streeters', or the opinion of Wall Streeters who blog...

They're too busy facing the REALITY that they don't have a job, and probably don't have a boat or a Ferrari to get themselves to the movie theatre to buy a ticket to see a film about people who they don't relate to in the least bit, and continue to lie to them 23 years after the fact...

`Wall Street' Misses as Public Stresses Over Jobs Not Misdeeds'

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-27/-wall-street-misses-as-moviegoers-stress-over-jobs-not-bankers-misdeeds.html

Excerpt: "Public frustration has moved on from Wall Street bankers since the crisis two years ago and now is focused on the pace of recovery and unemployment. People are more concerned about making ends meet than financiers’ misdeeds, said Lee Ohanian, an economics professor at the University of California at Los Angeles..."

Money Never Sleeps?

Well last I heard it, it ought to be catching up on some "Z"'s, But the "O"'s keep interfering...

208 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 208 Newer› Newest»

McFearless said...: morning all, I have continued to keep a close eye on private REIT's and their valuation methods through all of this. While it is not reflected in SRS, which has a -59% one year trailing return, here's what continues in the real world:

http://www.faqs.org/sec-filings/100923/Inland-American-Real-Estate-Trust-Inc_8-K/exhibit992.htm

Note that this was sold to investors at $10/unit.

"In an 8-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on September 23, 2010, we stated that the new estimated value per share of Inland American is $8.03. It is important to note that this estimated value is only a snapshot in time, and we believe it does not reflect the long-term value of our assets. As the economy slowly improves, we expect the value of our shares to reflect that. Keep in mind that we have the ability to pursue a liquidity event when we believe it will provide the most value for our stockholders. We remain confident in our best-of-class portfolio of diversified commercial real estate assets and in the strength of our balance sheet, which we believe has positioned Inland American for future growth."

haircuts, bitchez; September 27, 2010 at 9:21 AM
karen said...: morning! timely audible CV.. really great.; September 27, 2010 at 9:30 AM
McFearless said...: also, got an e-mail from one of my favorite advisors at my company in response to me telling him he made a nice trade in BEE DOOO, he's been about the best possible contrary indicator I know of since early 07, here's what his e-mail said, this is the whole thing:

"amazing...the only techie that i got wrong was sandisk so far. and I didn't find netflix til it was too late. apple is going to $400 easy"; September 27, 2010 at 9:30 AM
karen said...: Dow ‘Super Boom’ to Drive Average to 38,820 by 2025, Hirsch Says

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aRcK6Ix9n61A; September 27, 2010 at 9:32 AM
karen said...: more on secret committee to save the euro..

http://www.twitlonger.com/show/67p5ls; September 27, 2010 at 9:35 AM
McFearless said...: Super Boom, 38,820

lmao.......; September 27, 2010 at 9:36 AM
CV said...: Cost of bread at DOW 11,000 = $3.00

Cost of bread at DOW 38,820 - $11.00

So maybe you'll only lose just a small margin of your purchasing power...

If you own stocks that is... For the poor? Well sorry, you're just going to have to eat less...; September 27, 2010 at 9:36 AM
karen said...: http://www.businessinsider.com/owner-of-segway-inc-dies-in-segway-accident-2010-9; September 27, 2010 at 9:36 AM
karen said...: BTW, that Tepper commentary/video reminds me of Cayne saying, ..as long as the music is playing you've got to get up and and dance.; September 27, 2010 at 9:44 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2010/09/23/130083071/the-friday-podcast-toxie-r-i-p

We are gathered here to day to commemorate the passing of Toxie, Planet Money's toxic asset.

The first to speak will be Wit Solberg, the investor who helped us buy Toxie. Wit also invested in Toxie — and, like us, he lost more than half his investment.

..Listened to this Friday on NPR. You might find the podcast interesting this morning.; September 27, 2010 at 9:46 AM
karen said...: http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-saut-too-many-investors-are-listening-to-hindenburgs-and-roubini-and-missing-an-awesome-rally-2010-9; September 27, 2010 at 9:50 AM
I-Man said...: I keep hearing fiddles... but they're fiddling in the wind...

Dont you love musical chairs fused with hot potato?

Its like tip-toeing through a minefield...; September 27, 2010 at 9:50 AM
Anonymous said...: The French don't seem entirely focused on macroeconomic issues:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11419212; September 27, 2010 at 9:51 AM
CV said...: Yeah - we're getting some kind of "fellation" here in the US, for sure...; September 27, 2010 at 9:56 AM
AmenRa said...: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE68P01P20100926
Japan's Takefuji preparing bankruptcy filing-media

TOKYO, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Struggling Japanese consumer lender Takefuji Corp (8564.T) is making final preparations to file for bankruptcy protection from creditors, crippled by obligations to repay overcharged interest, local media said.

Takefuji had 430 billion yen ($5.1 billion) in liabilities as of the end of June, the Nikkei business daily reported, adding that president Akira Kiyokawa would step down.

The Jiji and Kyodo news agencies also reported that Takefuji was likely to file for bankruptcy.

An official in Takefuji's finance division said the company was checking on the media reports and declined to comment further. He did not give his name.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange suspended trade in Takefuji shares.; September 27, 2010 at 9:56 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Actually, Karen, I got more insight out of the Tepper interview on CNBC about how traders think than I have from the Mauldin letters, Pimco crying jags, or heaven forbid, Cramer....

..those who trade for a living are a different breed, and I thought this was the best thing I'd watched all year. Honestly.

When I retire and invest more actively, I will return to Mr. Tepper's thoughts frequently...; September 27, 2010 at 9:56 AM
karen said...: Bruce, I forgot all about Toxie.. thanks for posting that..; September 27, 2010 at 9:56 AM
McFearless said...: ah, you know Jeff Saut has called this all pretty well, so it's sad to see him have to resort to stuff like this to make his point:

"So far, that “shun equities” mindset has been wrong-footed."

He also says in the article that he's really all about the "investment" side of it and not so much the trading side of things, with his blue chip dividend payers....and he's really upset that investors might not "get in" on this move from 1040 up to "maybe the April highs"....

Consider:
i. If you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 on 12/31/1999 and held it, you would have little more than $9,400 to show for it today, including your reinvested dividends.

Now, read this statement again:

"So far, that “shun equities” mindset has been wrong-footed."

Since when Jeff, September 1, 2010?; September 27, 2010 at 10:01 AM
karen said...: http://www.businessinsider.com/robin-griffiths-ppt-2010-9

Cazenove Strategist Says It's The Plunge Protection Team Driving The U.S. Equity Markets; September 27, 2010 at 10:06 AM
McFearless said...: Bruce,

I'm curious, what did you find so interesting about Tepper and his commentary? I'd like to get inside your head a little bit on that one if you are open to sharing.; September 27, 2010 at 10:06 AM
McFearless said...: maybe Saut was talking about since March 2009, he couldn't have been talking about october 2007....nah.

but here's the thing, then he just lied to prove his piont, see, cause Prechter was a big bull in February and March 2009, yet he specifically cites Prechter as being one of those that have been wrong footed to shun equities since whenever he is talking about.

ahhhh.....details.; September 27, 2010 at 10:08 AM
karen said...: Ben... Andy had some comments on Tepper the other night..

Andy T said...
I caught that Tepper interview live this morning getting my girls ready for school (wife out of town)...

Two thoughts crossed my mind:

a) Congrats to him for getting balls deep in the middle of the shit;

b) Fuck him...he basically front ran the U.S. Government (similar to Billy Gross and Pimpco).

So, is he really a "genius" for just front running the big dumb Government (We the People)? I think he was "just smart enough" to realize that, for at least a little while, the USG would backstop everything.

I'm not sure about his conclusions for the future, either. The terms "QE" and "ZIRP" are in the American lexion now, and the general public doesn't like it much. Thuse, the Tea Party movement, etc.

I think there is a "third outcome" that he doesn't realize: The economy doesn't get any better and there is no 'political will' to engage in QE2. The Fed's hands are tied and must just let some assets deflate.

Kudos to CNBC for getting that interview. That guy actually talks like a lot of traders I know...and if it weren't for public TV I'm sure he would have used the phrase "asshole long the stock market."

September 24, 2010 9:51 PM; September 27, 2010 at 10:09 AM
karen said...: For Gilt followers: http://www.businessinsider.com/kevin-ryan-ceo-gilt-groupe; September 27, 2010 at 10:16 AM
Anonymous said...: "[Tepper] basically front ran the U.S. Government"

Didn't he do this based on public information? It sounded like he did, and anyone could have done the same, no?

Unless of course if you had been reading certain independent blogs to distance yourself from the BS in MSM and you were convinced that Ben was an idiot, the Fed powerless, and deflation was coming...; September 27, 2010 at 10:17 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Ben,

As you know, I was very lucky during the tech bubble, and as some wag once said, you only have to do it once.

So I have been very conservative the last several years. However, after watching the Tepper interview, I realized I have gotten lazy, just because money is no longer important to me. I have a sufficient sum.

Tepper, though, made me consider, and actually reminded me of the way I thought in the late 90's...listening to what the government said, investing with the herd, doing my best to not stay too long at the party...all the things you guys do now....

...I miss it, and I spent 5 hours early Saturday morning going over some things I haven't reviewed in 6-10 years. Changed some of my favorites on my home computer, made a list of ETF's both short and long that I may consider in a few months, and so forth. Mainly, it made me realize how "fat and lazy" my investment thinking has become as I have been very content just to sit and watch...

...I also realize that I don't have to know as much as Tepper to make money in the markets. But I have let lapse the good investing habits I created over time, and it is probably time to dust them off. When I retire, I'll have to have something to do, and I don't gamble, unless stocks are it..but If I start back in this full time, I will make money.

"Some say they can do anything. Some say they can do very little. Both are right."; September 27, 2010 at 10:19 AM
karen said...: check the daily candle on nflx today..; September 27, 2010 at 10:22 AM
karen said...: oops on crude.. wasn't paying attention.. listening to Tepper, LOL.; September 27, 2010 at 10:25 AM
wunsacon said...: Andy,

>> The Fed's hands are tied and must just let some assets deflate.

But, the Fed doesn't have to listen to the political will, does it? Otherwise, why has the Fed already given away so much free money?

Really, the Fed might not like the "heat". But, Ben thinks what he's doing what's necessary to save a system that's "worked" (until it didn't) for almost 100 years. Do you think he'll stop doing what he's doing without being forced? If not, who's going to force him to stop?

I wish I were wrong. But, I suspect a new Congress will convene, villify the Fed, but take only token measures to "stop" the Fed or change the system.; September 27, 2010 at 10:27 AM
karen said...: http://www.marketfolly.com/2010/09/jim-chanos-still-short-ford-f-china.html; September 27, 2010 at 10:28 AM
wunsacon said...: McFearless, look at SPG!!! Back near 2007 highs.

Don't those rats have to raise money or something, to pay down some of that debt?

A $27B market cap, with recent annual income and fcf of around $400m? Is that a nutty evaluation or am I crazy?; September 27, 2010 at 10:33 AM
McFearless said...: Bruce,

ok, that makes perfect sense. thanks.; September 27, 2010 at 10:38 AM
McFearless said...: wunsacon,

beats me man, re: SPG, but while everyone is watching the squiggles move from lower left to upper right, I figured I'd point out that REITS are still marking down their share values by 20% or more on a fairly regular basis, but this news doesn't seem to be making the wires.; September 27, 2010 at 10:41 AM
McFearless said...: "If not, who's going to force him to stop?"

Well, there is this not so little "force" called the bond market that tells Mr. Wizard what to do, people could see this if they just made simple charts, there is this other thing called gold that may stop him from enforcing his will on the world.; September 27, 2010 at 10:42 AM
karen said...: EEM chart looks toppy..; September 27, 2010 at 10:45 AM
McFearless said...: I thought of something funny in the shower this morning, funny to me anyway.

Often times I see in argument to the idea that we could have another depression, people will say something like "there is no rational reason to compare now to the 30's because it's so much different than it was now" and there are, you know, like 50 variations to this argument, business is different, technology, ....whatever.

So what's funny about this? Well, oddly enough despite the loud cries of not being able to compare the periods, it would seem our policy (well, some of it anyway) matches that of man who was born in 1883 and died in 1946, coming up with most of his theories in 30's.

So, if there is no sense comparing the two times, why do we use the same monetary philsophy from that time?; September 27, 2010 at 10:46 AM
karen said...: my internet is so slow i might have to slit my wrists.. but then not much happening anyway..; September 27, 2010 at 10:48 AM
I-Man said...: "Surely everyone goes about like a shadow. Surely for nothing they are in turmoil; they heap up, and do not know who will gather."

Psalm 39:6; September 27, 2010 at 10:48 AM
karen said...: i can hardly watch a streaming video tho.. and I wanted to hear Chanos..; September 27, 2010 at 10:49 AM
Jeff Spicoli said...: @McF (10:46)

That dude's a fag...; September 27, 2010 at 10:51 AM
karen said...: naturally.. http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2010/09/27/stanley-chais-big-feeder-to-madoff-dead-at-84/; September 27, 2010 at 10:59 AM
karen said...: here, this could stir things up a bit:

http://www.businessinsider.com/tea-party-beliefs-quotes-2010-9; September 27, 2010 at 11:05 AM
McFearless said...: my tepper post got eaten somehow....

oh well, to sum, dude's fund was down 26 or 27% in 2008, so it's very likely he was caught up in the idea the Fed would backstop things long before March 2009 as I'm sure most people here can remember this was stated during the duration of the 07-09 decline, which was that the Fed would come in and stop it by "providing liquidity" I think he is also fully aware of that third outcome, he has simply dismissed it, it's such a low probability event that he doesn't need to bother with it. Sometimes people claim that you need to see all sides, that you shouldn't dismiss anything, that "money is lost this way", of course, when a hedge fund manager with billions under management does it....it's ok, in fact, its insightful.

It would seem to me though it's just more example of how the market is all about perception.

he's no dummy to be sure, but I don't find his comments smart at all, he even said so himself that they weren't smart, he said over and over again in the interview "sometimes it's that easy"

I thought there was one extremely wise insight though, it seems most everyone else missed it, when asked about performance Tepper revealed that

"for my investors about 30% per year, for me, about 40%"

bwahahahahaha; September 27, 2010 at 11:07 AM
karen said...: I did an overlay chart.. $spx/$tnx/$bkx

big spx divergence.. thanks to monetary policy..

only quip i don't remember tepper saying is "dont fight the fed."; September 27, 2010 at 11:08 AM
karen said...: Ben, hadn't seen your post when i posted! LOL; September 27, 2010 at 11:09 AM
McFearless said...: "Unless of course if you had been reading certain independent blogs to distance yourself from the BS in MSM and you were convinced that Ben was an idiot, the Fed powerless, and deflation was coming"

that's interesting, I have those exact same convictions but magically I was ass deep long in early 2009 anyway.; September 27, 2010 at 11:11 AM
karen said...: Ben, Ben, Ben, haven't you learned anything from me about shunning bait? laughing..; September 27, 2010 at 11:17 AM
CV said...: Here's how they BACKSTOPPED it in 2008

http://www.campathletic.com/images/Backstop3.JPG

I think now, they're on this version...

http://www.walkupfence.com/images/baseball-backstops/baseball-backstop.jpg; September 27, 2010 at 11:18 AM
wunsacon said...: >> Well, there is this not so little "force" called the bond market that tells Mr. Wizard what to do, people could see this if they just made simple charts, there is this other thing called gold that may stop him from enforcing his will on the world.

For that to happen, bond investors have to *leave* bonds. Where will they go?

If they go into stocks, Ben is happy.

If they go into commodities, they force costs up and businesses to become less profitable. Only then does Ben stop giving away free money.; September 27, 2010 at 11:23 AM
karen said...: CV, thanks.. my best laugh of the day.. so far!; September 27, 2010 at 11:24 AM
karen said...: http://www.businessinsider.com/will-japan-intervene-again-and-risk-chinese-rage-2010-9; September 27, 2010 at 11:26 AM
karen said...: Glen Urquhart: "The exact phrase 'separation of Church and State' came out of Adolph HItler's mouth, that's where it comes from. So the next time your liberal friends talk about the separation of Church and State, ASK THEM WHY THEY'RE NAZIS."

http://www.businessinsider.com/tea-party-beliefs-quotes-2010-9; September 27, 2010 at 11:28 AM
CV said...: @wunsa

Anecdotally, with the rise in PM's lately, it seems like "the latter" is gaining momentum...; September 27, 2010 at 11:28 AM
McFearless said...: I can't help it karen.

@wunsacon,

what about that other asset class... cash?

Also, one might want to ask, rather than using the blanket statement that "investors are buying bonds".....what type of bonds are they buying and what is the risk?

The most recent EWT did have one interesting data point worth noting:

"....most investors are not hiding in Treasuries; they are chasing yield! To that end, they are shunning Treasuries to invest in high-yield money market funds and bond funds, which hold less-than-pristine corporate and municipal debt. To show you how divergent these trends are, reports show that taxable corporate bond funds took in $26 billion in August and muni bond funds attracted $ billion, but long term government bond funds drew only $191 million."

recall stock market performance in August....ya think maybe investors got even more frisky about risky debt in September?; September 27, 2010 at 11:30 AM
McFearless said...: correction from above: muni bonds attracted "$5" billion; September 27, 2010 at 11:31 AM
karen said...: anyone else getting deja vu on all the buyout news???; September 27, 2010 at 11:34 AM
McFearless said...: oh man, special package through the company for sixers/heat game....

I'm tempted.; September 27, 2010 at 11:36 AM
karen said...: I just found about 10 more links I could post..

Banks Keep Failing, No End in Sight
Since WaMu Fell, 279 Lenders Have Collapsed; Lost Jobs, Curtailed Lending and the Big Get Bigger

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704760704575516272337762044.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business; September 27, 2010 at 11:36 AM
McFearless said...: Glen Neely stated early last week that (not word for word)

now will start a period of 2-4 months of better economic news that will convince everyone that it is safe to get back into the market, it will also mark the end of the rally that started in March 2009.

he's bullish near term, but read the statement carefully for the bigger picture.; September 27, 2010 at 11:38 AM
karen said...: japan's export growth slows for 6th straight month
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11416470

U.K. House Prices Decline the Most in 18 Months, Hometrack Says
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aepe9F8KS2Ts; September 27, 2010 at 11:39 AM
karen said...: MacroMan today: The price action in equities and US$ on Friday together with the following Asian session would make one think that it's all go for piling on the risk. But we can't help but notice this female rough collie tugging at our ankles and barking something? Sorry, we cant quite make that out? Did you say that the runaway train is heading towards the broken bridge? No?; September 27, 2010 at 11:41 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Ben,

Easy. I think you missed the importance of the interview. This interview highlighted, at least for me, the essential difference in the mindset of the trader vs. the investor. Tepper, I thought, showed extremely well the charecteristics of the trader. I, and you too, have a lot of the investor gene deep within us that makes the "well, better luck on the next trade" mentality hard to stomach.

Man, this guy IS the trader. I loved the interview. But when it is my money, it is hard to be as flippant as this fellow was on CNBC. I put hours each day in, and when I was all in I was anxious all the time. I even sold a high 6 figure position in AMAT on Christmas vacation, so that shows you how little I was able to enjoy it.

Trader vs investor. But he's like the defensive back who knows he'll get burned by Manning or Brady. He has a short memory and still thinks he's going to win every matchup.

You are doing great.; September 27, 2010 at 11:42 AM
CV said...: "now will start a period of 2-4 months of better economic news"

---

That's OK... That's pretty much the NFL season... I can keep you all entertained with my NFL & NCAA picks until then...

It's time you all learned how to stay ahead of the bookmakers...; September 27, 2010 at 11:43 AM
karen said...: flippant is the perfect word, Bruce.. i had cocky on my mind.. but yours is better.. a bit cagey too with his replies.. contrast him to the Chanos vid i posted earlier..; September 27, 2010 at 11:46 AM
karen said...: Time to vote! http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/9/27/bullish-or-bearish.html; September 27, 2010 at 11:48 AM
karen said...: http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/9/24/hot-breadth.html; September 27, 2010 at 11:49 AM
CV said...: Did you say that the runaway train is heading towards the broken bridge?

---

How about the runaway double decker bus heading towards the low bridge?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzwXNvMyZd8&feature=related; September 27, 2010 at 11:50 AM
I-Man said...: 'Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it.'
-Adolph Hitler

'There are a lot of people who lie and get away with it, and that's just a fact.'
-Donald Rumsfeld

'Repetition does not transform a lie into a truth.'
-Franklin D. Roosevelt

'During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act. Political language. . . is designed to make lies sound truthful.'
-George Orwell

'The first casualty of war is not truth, but perspective. Once that's gone, truth, like compassion, reason, and all the other virtues, wanders around like a wounded orphan.'
- Ente Grillenhaft

'The 1st panacea of a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the 2nd is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; a permanent ruin.'
-Ernest Hemingway

'I just want you to know that, when we talk about war, we're really talking about peace.'
-George W. Bush

"We're not going to monetize the debt."
-Ben Bernanke

'We are never deceived; we deceive ourselves.'
-Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

From:

Jah-nonymous Monetarist

http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2010/09/sacred-profanities-bonfire-of.html; September 27, 2010 at 11:58 AM
karen said...: this should be interesting!!

http://www.businessinsider.com/david-rosenberg-delivers-withering-rebuttal-to-david-teppers-uber-bullishness-2010-9; September 27, 2010 at 11:59 AM
karen said...: http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/09/guess-who-is-lobbying-against-marijuana-legalization.html; September 27, 2010 at 12:04 PM
CV said...: How do you all like this bunch of baloney?

Michelle Obama gives World leaders pickled okra among other 'tasty' treats from her garden.

http://www.sodahead.com/united-states/michelle-obama-gives-world-leaders-pickled-okra-among-other-tasty-treats-from-her-garden/question-1246129/

Her garden? I suppose that means it was all grown with tender loving care in the White House garden...

Let's see... Do any of you out there grow fruits & veggies?...

OKRA, while you can start it in a greenhouse, and/or with a peat pot, generally they don't like to be transplanted...

So it's better off just planting them straight in the soil as soon as the temperature is warm enough... The rule of thumb (around these parts), is never get any of these SUMMER crops into the ground before MOTHERS DAY (as there always seems to be one last frost day that will bite you in the ass and ruin your day...

Now, OKRA needs about 50-60 days to mature, and ought to be picked over frequently as they become ripe...

So assuming they were "planted" the week after Mothers day, that puts you square into the middle of July for the VERY first fruits to come out, and were most likely producing from the middle of July to the latter part of August...

It seems to me that FLOTUS was in Spain, then Martha's Vineyard during that entire time stretch, so I assume the OKRA just harvested themselves, jumped into the pickling jars all on their own, then wrapped a bow around themselves...

I hate PHONEY BALONEY BS...; September 27, 2010 at 12:06 PM
karen said...: didn't anyone watch this? http://www.businessinsider.com/robin-griffiths-ppt-2010-9; September 27, 2010 at 12:08 PM
CV said...: @karen

Then... If you combine my (12:06) with your (12:04)...

I wonder who the first POTUS will be to turn the "rose garden" into a couple marijuana plants?; September 27, 2010 at 12:11 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Karen,

I read the Business Insider piece regarding Rosenberg and Tepper. Exactly as I would have expected.

But again, Rosenberg is a big picture guy. Tepper is a trader. These are the two ends of the Bell curve of investing. Tepper has managed to divorce himself from everything that matters except to the short term trade. So what if Bernanke and Obama and Geithner are mental midgets? THAT won't change how Tepper trades this week. And next week, he will reconsider and may change entirely. Rosenberg is right, of course, but the whole benefit of the CNBC video is the ability we all had to look into this very successful trader's mind.

...You NEVER get to much education or information. Not in my business and not in investing.; September 27, 2010 at 12:18 PM
AmenRa said...: Dallas Fed cam in at -17.7. How long can the ISM stay above 50?; September 27, 2010 at 12:24 PM
karen said...: Doug Noland sums it up perfectly: "The Government Finance Bubble thesis holds that government debt is the latest - and greatest - episode of Hyman Minsky's "Ponzi Finance." During Q2, the markets accommodated a $2.0 Trillion annualized pace of federal debt growth. In just eight quarters, federal government debt expanded $3.610 TN, or 54%, to $10.308 TN. In a short 24 months, federal debt has jumped from 46% to 71% of GDP. And as long as the markets allow such unprecedented issuance of non-productive Credit at historically low yields, it's quite possible that household incomes, corporate earnings, the general economy, and the securities markets might appear ok. Heck, Washington seems awfully determined to resuscitate asset prices. But we don't have to look back too many quarters for a stark reminder of the nature of Ponzi Dynamics and Fragilities."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18319/q2-2010-flow-of-funds; September 27, 2010 at 12:28 PM
McFearless said...: Bruce,

the only problem I might have with this idea that Tepper is a true trader is the fact that he has over $12 billion in AUM. $12 billion. I think maybe it's lost of some folks what you have to go through to move that kind of money around, you can't trade it. I manage less than $100 million and even I cannot manage that amount like I do my own accounts, its impossible.; September 27, 2010 at 12:32 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Ben,

It isn't even about Tepper...stay with me here. It is about Tepper's thinking...the economically "amoral" thinking he obviously goes through...give me a few minutes to catch up and send some pre-op orders in and I'll tell you why it is good for me and you over my lunch break...; September 27, 2010 at 12:36 PM
karen said...: funny tweet from SellPuts

volume is so thing one fat finger in the SPY might trigger a global market collapse; September 27, 2010 at 12:38 PM
karen said...: thin! not thing!; September 27, 2010 at 12:39 PM
CV said...: "one fat finger in the SPY might trigger a global market collapse"

or news story that Steve Jobs was gravely ill...; September 27, 2010 at 12:43 PM
McFearless said...: If leftback were around I'm thinking he'd be advising for people to sell govvies today.; September 27, 2010 at 12:44 PM
karen said...: new 52 week fxa high.. 96.65
sighing, are we there yet?!; September 27, 2010 at 12:47 PM
karen said...: Ben, funny.. i just heard from him and he said, "I might sell some bonds tomorrow." He is very ill.. or so he says !! laryngitis, i think.; September 27, 2010 at 12:49 PM
karen said...: karen: those of us that watch the tape.. is this the slowest day EVER, or what?!

CV: i kno, right?; September 27, 2010 at 12:50 PM
bob said...: http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php

Look at the SPY max pain graph. I have never seen one look like that before.; September 27, 2010 at 12:52 PM
McFearless said...: ah, that sucks Karen, probably from all that running around he's been doing.

Well, as he has (I think) properly pointed out, the POMO has a much larger impact on the bond market in any given day, so if he sticks to that I'd think he'd be looking to sell something here in that space.; September 27, 2010 at 12:55 PM
karen said...: thanks, bob! amazing view!

and then there's this:

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/9/27/sp-500-short-interest.html; September 27, 2010 at 12:58 PM
karen said...: "Apple is an outlier." abnormalreturns

http://chart.ly/wuk637i

"As an investor you need to pay attention to Apple whether you like its products or not."; September 27, 2010 at 12:59 PM
AmenRa said...: 1. Can anyone stop Sugar?

2. Yen almost at weekly 3LB reversal price. Japan's FinMin has one hand on the hotline...; September 27, 2010 at 1:00 PM
karen said...: check CAT chart..; September 27, 2010 at 1:01 PM
karen said...: bearish engulfing on BAC.. we KNOW there are problems under that hood..; September 27, 2010 at 1:02 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Ben,

The video was great. It reminded me that most of us make real money when we take real chances. I invested everything, and some of the things I invested in had NO profits. You remember.

I am simply saying that I could care less about Mr. Tepper as an individual. I did some reading, and apparently he only had 2.7 billion under management in 2008, so he is attracting money. You guys know this better than I, but this is the typical blood in the street investor. I don't emulate him, but I salute him. And I have emulated him before.

He reminds me of what it takes to be a trader. Which is what he is. You can call trading investing if you wish, but calling a zebra a horse doesn't keep the stripes away when you look at it.

When liquidity is easy, as a rule equities should outperform. Tepper just reminds me of that simple rule. The question is: Do we want to take his chances, or not?; September 27, 2010 at 1:03 PM
karen said...: http://www.businessinsider.com/how-big-is-the-housing-markets-shadow-inventory-problem-2010-9; September 27, 2010 at 1:10 PM
I-Man said...: @ Bruce, Ben

I-Man says that its all trading... all speculation.

An "investor" just rationalizes it in different ways.

Somewhere in between Investing and Trading, we lost "Speculation."

Some have tried to insert "Gambling" for "Speculation"... but I think thats a falsehood, for a true speculator anyway. (Or, good one.); September 27, 2010 at 1:17 PM
karen said...: this is wild.. just pulled up homes between 500-700k in my zip code.

59 listed.. of the first 6 listed, 4 are "taking back up offers."
next two pages had 2 in escrow out of 12..; September 27, 2010 at 1:19 PM
McFearless said...: I-man,

yes, I agree, I'm just making a distinction that someone that pushes around billions cannot trade the way we discuss trading here on a regular basis, it's not the same thing, when you are allocating that kind of capital you cannot just change your mind about something on a whim, which we can all do any time we want on any given day, you can't do this with a book that big, especially when some of your customers are pensions.; September 27, 2010 at 1:20 PM
bob said...: I saw the interview with Tepper, and I have to say that I think he addresses the point about his size, without calling it that.

He is forced to buy into markets where there is no bid, or where he gets the "grass" as he puts it. If no one follows he does become lunch for the lions.

He's a salesman, and tries to put a good spin on this reality.; September 27, 2010 at 1:29 PM
McFearless said...: as far as taking risk with him now (though i'd argue he almost said there was no risk, as he outlined two outcomes both with the exact same end game, stocks go up)

one other thing I'd also point out is that I think most people missed most of the rally in 09, Tepper got the whole thing, so he is already approaching this a lot different than most people and probably helps explain why he is so "calm". If C stock goes down 40% from here, he's still made a lot of money from his buy, the new buyer is down 40% though.; September 27, 2010 at 1:29 PM
McFearless said...: bob,

thanks for the link above on max pain.; September 27, 2010 at 1:30 PM
CV said...: I love those search queries on options pain...

you click on the symbol, and instead of SUBMIT, the button says "Bring me the pain"... ror; September 27, 2010 at 1:35 PM
CV said...: Welcome to the US... here's your pickled okra...

Now some would consider that pain...; September 27, 2010 at 1:36 PM
CV said...: ror

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2010/09/us_apologizes_for_flying_phili.html; September 27, 2010 at 1:40 PM
CV said...: Speaking of the fall harvest...

I'm bored out of my gourd!; September 27, 2010 at 1:46 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://seekingalpha.com/article/227184-the-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-a-turn-for-the-worse

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: A Turn for the Worse; September 27, 2010 at 1:49 PM
karen said...: Abnormal correlations abound.. that is the new normal. Governments are in the midst of currency wars and currency traders are the new gun runners..; September 27, 2010 at 1:52 PM
karen said...: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/33ff9624-ca48-11df-a860-00144feab49a.html

Name an important country that hasn't intervened in their currency of late..; September 27, 2010 at 1:55 PM
karen said...: it really bugs me that the rising aussie isn't having a negative effect on gold.

the rising rand sure did..; September 27, 2010 at 1:57 PM
karen said...: A James Altucher that I liked!

http://www.businessinsider.com/think-you-can-get-buy-on-250k-even-1-million-wont-cut-it-in-new-york-2010-9; September 27, 2010 at 2:00 PM
CV said...: BR's thread...

The Left Right Paradigm is Over: It's You vs. Corporations...

Typical article with a bunch of numb nuts comments to follow...

---

OK great... So now what do we know that has changed?

So corporations support one side or the other (RIGHT OR LEFT), through lobbying and campaign contributions...

Whoever wins, gets to set policy and make laws, that will help the corporation... The last I checked, "corporations" don't make laws, or can declare war on another country (they can only PAY OTHERS to do it)...

But regardless of the distinction, what has really changed (by TWSWB coming out with this wonderfully refreshing new insight?)...

In the end, if you want to fight against a political ideology, at least you have face to fight, or otherwise a group to align yourselves with...

I'm not saying that's right, wrong, or helpful, but hell - it makes someone at least "feel" a little better if they can vent (since they know the effort to CHANGE things isn't within any realm of individual effort)...

Fight a corporation? How do you do that other than to STOP FUCKING BUYING THINGS, or, STOP USING banks...

I doubt the "Thanks you, BR, for reiterating what MANY of us have been saying for years now. Amen. Need to keep hammering these points though for people on the “left” and right” to get a clue. I’m guessing it’s going to take at least one more shot by both parties politically for enough people to wake up to this scam. people of the world are ready or prepared to do that...

But to them, it feels good, just aligning themselves with Mr. Barry Libertarian...

I wish I hadn't gone there or read the comments... What had been just an average boring day has now become annoying...; September 27, 2010 at 2:01 PM
I-Man said...: The whole country is a corporation.

One big lie wrapped up in a fancy colorful package.; September 27, 2010 at 2:04 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

I agree with that JA comment, as I said a few weeks ago, $250k in my part of the country does not make you rich at all, I doubt where you live it does either.

and this is not an argument against those folks paying more in tax, I'm just a little tired of the media making the blanket statement that everyone above $250k has it made by calling them "wealthy"

income does not auto equate to wealth; September 27, 2010 at 2:06 PM
karen said...: If this isn't a sign of the top... SMH:

Ready to Be Rich
David Tepper—whose hedge fund made a killing during the crash by betting the government wouldn’t let the big banks fail—is coming out of the billionaire closet.

http://nymag.com/news/features/establishments/68513/; September 27, 2010 at 2:09 PM
arbitrage789 said...: McF @ 2:06

I agree. If one factors in assets that are held by individuals (in determining financial wealth), people who earn $250K are probably nowhere near the "wealthiest" 2%; September 27, 2010 at 2:11 PM
McFearless said...: when did it become news that the debate should have never been about left or right?....maybe because I'm young I never believed that because not once in my adult life have I been able to tell the difference between the two parties as a result of action, sure people do a lot of talky talky about what it means to be a Dem or a Rep, but it's not your talking that matters

what matters is what you do; September 27, 2010 at 2:11 PM
arbitrage789 said...: McF @ 2:11

I'm not sure exactly what you're trying to say in that post (2:11), but I would observe that, over the last 20 months, the difference between the two parties is as stark as it ever has been.; September 27, 2010 at 2:16 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

I just noticed you linked glen urkhart (spelling?) quote above, he's another DE guy, our politicians here are really making some national waves.

First State baby!; September 27, 2010 at 2:17 PM
CV said...: @McF

It's just more of the classic "GRAND effing DEBATING SOCIETY" bulls**t that liberals like TWSWB like to spout out every once in awhile...

As soon as they figure out "the argument" or "the debate" that they've been fostering has been figured out to have no value...

What do they do?

REPACKAGE IT... Dress it up in a new costume and send it out to be considered with 10 "new" debating points attached to it...

BAFFLE THEM WITH BS! You're a genius BR!; September 27, 2010 at 2:18 PM
karen said...: How It Is NOT Different This Time:
Cayne/Tepper
Merger Mania and Magic Mondays
Divergence in Financials

How It Is Different:
No IPO Boom
ZIRP
Rivalry Currency Devaluations
RE Deflation; September 27, 2010 at 2:21 PM
AmenRa said...: Can't have a f'ing down Monday at all.; September 27, 2010 at 2:22 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

there is drastic difference in rhetoric. And sure, with some of the issues such as abortion, there is probably a pretty consistent contrast between dem and repub, when it comes to things like taxes or economic policy, rhetoric is cheap. both parties have been behind one disastrous law after another during my life time, and ALL of them promote a central bank that not only destroys lives, but is specifically spoken against in the constitution; September 27, 2010 at 2:23 PM
Jennifer said...: I see that I've missed "all the fun" during my time away...hope everyone made some money in my absence.

Domestic tip of the day: Pickled okra can be the main ingredient in a tasty hors d'oeuvre -- spread one thin slice of deli ham w/ cream cheese, roll around the outside of one pickled okra, slice into bite sized pieces...sounds odd but really quite good.

House guests gone, back to the markets.; September 27, 2010 at 2:23 PM
McFearless said...: really though DL, I just wanted to use a line from a Batman movie.; September 27, 2010 at 2:25 PM
karen said...: http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2010/09/27/2010-09-27_celebrities_seeking_pistol_permits_on_the_rise_in_the_city_lifestyles_of_rich_n_.html; September 27, 2010 at 2:25 PM
CV said...: @DL

What I "think" MCF is saying is this...

What's the sense in changing a "left/right" argument into a "corporation vs. me" argument...

The corporations (in 2008), put all their money behind the present PUPPET IN CHIEF... Now that they're figuring out that people are souring on that idea, they're going to toss it to the other side and/or "hedge" their bets...

So I'm supposed to be MAD at them for doing that?

OK - Suppose I am... Well then - the only way to "punish" a corporation is to stop buying their products... PERIOD...

Don't like banks? Pay off all your debts and pull your money out... Buy gold... Barter for goods... Grow your own food...

If you're not willing to do any of that, then either make a lot of money and start BUYING some politicians of your own, or start your own political party, win some seats, and go in there and change Washington yourself...

BR is just writing a thread like that because he's a friggin LIBERAL...

People are dissatisfied, so it's time to change the topic... It's time to "blame the corporations"...

When George Bush was President, the SAME corporations had the same control over everything... But then it actually WAS the fault of Bush...

Instead now it's the fault of the corporations that Obama is a failure...; September 27, 2010 at 2:27 PM
arbitrage789 said...: McF @ 2:17

“our politicians here are really making some national waves”.

Yes. And I learned recently that Christine O’Donnell ran against Joe Biden in 2008, and got 35% of the vote, despite the fact that Biden outspent her by 30:1, and despite the fact that Biden was widely known nationally.

Thought that was interesting.; September 27, 2010 at 2:27 PM
Jennifer said...: CAT is at 80??? BIDU is at 102??? I'm feeling dizzy, the air is so thin up here. What happened? I was only out of commission for 2 days...did they save up last Wednesday's POMO money to make Friday go further? I think I need some okra.; September 27, 2010 at 2:28 PM
karen said...: new spx high confirming new fxa high : ); September 27, 2010 at 2:31 PM
McFearless said...: Huge Hat Tip to a poster and Danerics site for this:

I would highly suggest people read this, it helps validate my theory on POMO with data:

http://www.tradingtheodds.com/2010/09/permanent-open-market-operations-pomo/

"At first glance (Compound Return, Geometric Growth per Trade, Profit Factor) it seems that a tradable edge might be provided, but the above-average profitability on POMO days is mainly due to the significantly below-average percentage of violent losses on those days (e.g. max. loss -3.46%). In fact the probability for a higher close on a POMO day (54.59%) more ore less equals the benchmark probability (random or at-any-time chance) for a higher close, and furthermore the median trade on a POMO day (+0.05%) as well as the Distribution of Returns (the setup’s median return in comparison to the benchmarks’s ranking of daily returns) slightly undercuts the benchmark’s median trade (+0.06%) and Distribution of Returns respectively."; September 27, 2010 at 2:31 PM
arbitrage789 said...: CV @ 2:27

Yeah, I noticed BR’s post today on the evil corporations. Even if there were some way to eliminate the corporate influence on Congress, other interest groups would come in to fill the void, and I’m not sure we’d be so much better off then.; September 27, 2010 at 2:31 PM
karen said...: 1150 should be a piece of cake now.. tho why it was so hard on friday is beyond me..; September 27, 2010 at 2:31 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

I made a comment last week that she wasn't as popular in northern DE as she was in southern DE, I'm not so sure about this after this weekend, I think I may have underestimated how many people in New Castle County are going to vote for her.; September 27, 2010 at 2:32 PM
CV said...: @Jenn

"Domestic tip of the day: Pickled okra can be the main ingredient in a tasty hors d'oeuvre -- spread one thin slice of deli ham w/ cream cheese, roll around the outside of one pickled okra, slice into bite sized pieces"...

I have no doubt that that is a tasty snack...

But CV has a basic rule of thumb...

If something is TRULY good, it is good ON ITS OWN...

You shouldn't have to hide it wrapped in cream cheese, ham, and a biscuit...; September 27, 2010 at 2:32 PM
McFearless said...: @Jennifer, 2:28, please take the time to read the link I posted at 2:31 re: POMO.; September 27, 2010 at 2:34 PM
arbitrage789 said...: McF @ 2:32

Dems outnumber Republicans in Delaware; but the independent voters could push her over the top if they want to.; September 27, 2010 at 2:35 PM
karen said...: Ben, from your link, "This could very well be a reason for the market’s above-average month-to-date performance despite a couple of (negative) seasonalites (e.g. the historical negative week immediately following September’s triple witching) and setups (e.g. the down-day immediately following the Labor Day exchange holiday)."; September 27, 2010 at 2:36 PM
Jennifer said...: McF -- just saw it...need some time to digest.; September 27, 2010 at 2:36 PM
karen said...: The only problem is that intervention works until it doesn't.. got yen?; September 27, 2010 at 2:36 PM
CV said...: @DL

BR's post was, pure and simple, an effort to DODGE any blame to the current administration for its failed policies...

In 2008, they "inherited" this mess (blame the former regime)...

Since - their own initiated policies have failed (and made the problem even worse)...

So now? "It's not OUR FAULT - it's the big bad corporations"...

I thought one of the things that Obama ran on in 2008 was to remove the lobbying from Washington... EPIC FAIL...; September 27, 2010 at 2:37 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

yep, that's what I think I've missed, there are more indies now here it seems.; September 27, 2010 at 2:38 PM
CV said...: @DL

I'm sure if the GOP wins back a majority, 2 years from now BR will be back to blaming "the right" (as it magically won't have to do with corporations anymore)...; September 27, 2010 at 2:39 PM
karen said...: I think no matter how we voted in the last presidential election, we would all agree on one thing with regard to the present administration: EPIC FAIL

Or, as Danny likes to say at Option Monster, "Anybody happy?!"; September 27, 2010 at 2:39 PM
karen said...: topstep:

http://www.hedgeaccording.ly/2010/09/mr-top-step-in-hd-for-monday-september.html; September 27, 2010 at 2:40 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Karen @ 2:31

S&P futures made a new high yesterday at 6 P.M.

(1149.75 on ESZ0); September 27, 2010 at 2:40 PM
Lloyd said...: I am...; September 27, 2010 at 2:41 PM
CV said...: @DL

FWIW... There's probably some validity in saying that it's not "left or right"...

What disgusts me though is how FOS BR is...

He's trying to change the trajectory of the argument to cloak blame for his liberal buddies...; September 27, 2010 at 2:42 PM
karen said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/john-paulson-lecture-bonds-are-wrong-stocks-are-right; September 27, 2010 at 2:42 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Karen @ 2:39

Actually, there are a lot of people who have benefited a lot from Mr. O's policies.

(I'm certainly not one of them); September 27, 2010 at 2:42 PM
karen said...: LOVE, Tim..; September 27, 2010 at 2:44 PM
McFearless said...: "(I'm certainly not one of them)"

yeah, the rest of us are still waiting, but good thing we didn't give any regular folks any money, we could have changed the culture or something. You should thank God for that.; September 27, 2010 at 2:44 PM
arbitrage789 said...: CV,

I have you more or less pegged as a Pat Buchanan conservative.

(And that’s not a bad thing, on balance).; September 27, 2010 at 2:48 PM
CV said...: Obama is FOS as well (as if that is a revelation)...

When his "hallowedness" hadn't yet worn off (back in 2008)... He was like...

"Oh, I'll come into Washington and reach across the aisle and bring everybody together"... It'll be one big kumbaya party...

Granted, the GOP didn't offer much support, but hey, what's ANYBODY supposed to do when they're outnumbered and out gunned... Simply say... "OK - you have the numbers - so I guess your ideas are right"?

Now that they're losing support all over the place, it's back to a BULLY PULPIT...

People should have known this all along... They should have known it all the way back during the HC debate when Obama basically came flat out and said... "Well, WE WON THE ELECTION, so get out of my face with your opinions on anything"...; September 27, 2010 at 2:49 PM
karen said...: http://247wallst.com/2010/09/27/machines-that-dispense-gold-bars-coming-to-the-us/; September 27, 2010 at 2:51 PM
Jennifer said...: Re: POMO stats -- I'd be curious to see the same numbers run for the last two years only. I know there were POMO ops prior to that, but it is my impression that the banks weren't using the POMO funds to assist in their own recapitalization prior to Sept of 2008. What do you think?; September 27, 2010 at 2:51 PM
CV said...: @DL

I could barely even describe what Pat Buchanan might stand for or not... (other than I know who he is)...

Frankly - I hardly know the STANCE of any politician on anything...

"What's that?" you say... "How could CV have an intelligent opinion on politics without knowing what most of them stand for"?

Easy

I know what NONE of them stand for...

- None of the stand for ending the Fed
- None of them stand for balancing budgets, taking care of deficits
- None of them can escape the sinkhole of TBTF

Start with those three ideas, and we'll work our way down through the rest... But if you can't start there... The rest of your ideas are basically worthless to me...

So have fun debating all the other topics in your committees & town halls...; September 27, 2010 at 2:55 PM
arbitrage789 said...: K @ 2:51

Some of the "mark ups" on gold bars can be pretty steep these days.; September 27, 2010 at 2:55 PM
arbitrage789 said...: CV @ 2:55

You're mostly right.

But there's always Ron Paul (and his son).; September 27, 2010 at 2:57 PM
karen said...: today's spy volume will be lowest of the year, i guess..

you'd have to go back to Dec 30, to find a lower one..; September 27, 2010 at 3:01 PM
McFearless said...: Tim's comments were very interesting, they match almost identical to Neely's wave count.

This move down count end up being a giant bear trap, and that would push us to new highs. Stay tuned.; September 27, 2010 at 3:03 PM
CV said...: John Paulson Lecture: "Bonds Are Wrong, Stocks Are Right"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/john-paulson-lecture-bonds-are-wrong-stocks-are-right

BWaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!; September 27, 2010 at 3:04 PM
arbitrage789 said...: If we don't get a pullback of at least 3% beginning on Friday, I'll eat my hat.; September 27, 2010 at 3:04 PM
karen said...: $bkx is what i am watching.. let's see if it decides to trend up or down on the 13/34ema chart..; September 27, 2010 at 3:05 PM
karen said...: CV.. you didn't see my 2:42 : P

DL.. ha! we might be eating crow soon : ); September 27, 2010 at 3:07 PM
McFearless said...: the Paulson statements are confusing to the extreme to me, especially the statements about gold in relation to the monetary base, makes no sense to me at all.

ah....monday's are great; September 27, 2010 at 3:09 PM
karen said...: C and BAC look set to resume down trend..
I cannot imagine what ails them.. must not be long aapl/goog/bidu/nflx/cat...; September 27, 2010 at 3:09 PM
karen said...: i'm not gonna read any of that cr*p.. everyone talking their book.. for every big $ bull there is big $ bear these days..

i don't care about pomo either.. just watch the charts and make a plan.; September 27, 2010 at 3:11 PM
karen said...: Participation Remains Paltry
Mon Sep 27 15:00:00 EDT 2010 | Briefing.com
Only an hour remains before the toll of the closing bell and only a little more than a half billion shares have traded hands on the NYSE so far. The lackluster participation reflects the lack of interest on the part of traders amid this session's light news flow. It also reflects an uncertainty as it pertains to the direction of stocks.; September 27, 2010 at 3:12 PM
McFearless said...: this statement in particular:

"The price of gold has moved in correlation to the monetary base for as long as they have tracked the two data items."

requires a lot of explanation; September 27, 2010 at 3:12 PM
arbitrage789 said...: "It also reflects an uncertainty as it pertains to the direction of stocks"

Good thing that's a rare situation.; September 27, 2010 at 3:14 PM
CV said...: The fractals on this tape are very similar to what they were a month ago when the market was hovering in the 1120's (trying to break 1130)...

Then gave it all up and went down to 1040...

It would seem like it could just move sideways for a few more days, then just turn down without any warning...

It would seem that MOMO (beginning of month) days could be the next target to "distribute" more shares into the hands of the 401k chumps...

How that plays out, I haven't the foggiest idea...

Hover here, and use that activity to call the market up higher...

OR

Have a little "correction" first, and use that activity as a catalyst for a base (and FRONTRUN it, of course)...; September 27, 2010 at 3:14 PM
karen said...: Arlington Asset Investment Corp.(AIZ) invests in mortgage-related assets. Arlington Asset Investment Corp.(AIZ) declared a 71.4% increase in its quarterly dividend to 60 cents/share. Since 2005 the company has decreased its dividend regularly, which doesn’t make it a suitable investment to dividend growth investors. Yield: 11.70%

Invesco Agency Securities Inc. (IVR) operates as a mortgage real estate investment trust. The company raised its quarterly dividend by 35% to $1/share. The company has paid a fluctuating dividend since going public in 2009. Yield: 17.50%

More stocks mentioned: http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2010/09/two-consistent-dividend-paying-stocks.html

But my real point is how can a company like IVR generate a 17+% yield?? Seriously..; September 27, 2010 at 3:16 PM
CV said...: "It also reflects an uncertainty as it pertains to the direction of stocks"

BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHAAAAAAAAAAAA!

OK - Cv is going to sign off right now... Someone - please wake me up when there is CERTAINTY as to which direction prices will go, then I'll jump in with two feet...

ROR!; September 27, 2010 at 3:18 PM
karen said...: 20 American-Made Products That Rely On Huge Protective Tariffs To Survive

http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-biggest-tariffs-2010-9#ixzz10l97c6LZ; September 27, 2010 at 3:22 PM
CV said...: "But my real point is how can a company like IVR generate a 17+% yield?? Seriously..."

---

CV believes the game, by CEO's & board members... NOWADAYS... Is to extract every last dime out of a company...

Since stock prices aren't really going up (or, at least like they used to in the good ol days)... CEO's & board members are loathe to sell shares into the market...

It's too visible and risky, tosses up a red flag, and FRANKLY, there aren't any block buyers...

So how do they "gut" the company and enrich themselves...

They go to the cheap rates in the bond markets... Borrow as much as they can... and UP their dividend payouts...

So the CEOS and board members are compensating themselves that way in lieu of bonuses, or stock sales...

When their CASH FLOW eventually hits a wall, they get bailed out (or assumed into another entity)...

It's a theory anyway... Probably what I'd do if I was a low life pig...; September 27, 2010 at 3:25 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Karen,

You post a lot of interesting articles, which is all well and good.

But I want you to "wade into the fray" once in a while and say what you think about some of these articles.

(Makes things more interesting).; September 27, 2010 at 3:26 PM
arbitrage789 said...: CV @ 3:18

Twenty years from now, the S&P will be higher than it is now.

If I'm wrong, you can sue me in the year 2030.; September 27, 2010 at 3:31 PM
CV said...: "Twenty years from now, the S&P will be higher than it is now"

So I guess that you're saying that in 2030, the S&P 500 will be 499 penny stocks... and AAPL...

In that case, you're probably right... It just may be higher...

It wouldn't have worked if you'd made a broad statement like that about the NIKKEI 20 years ago...; September 27, 2010 at 3:35 PM
CV said...: Frankly...

I'm not sure if the DOLLAR will be around in 2030...

So how the hell do I know what an index full of stocks priced in dollars will be...?; September 27, 2010 at 3:37 PM
karen said...: I won't be seeing Wall St 2 because it has Shia LaBeouf in it.. how's that for an opinion.; September 27, 2010 at 3:39 PM
AmenRa said...: I see Snagglepuss peeking around the corner...; September 27, 2010 at 3:39 PM
karen said...: I distrust APPLs books as much as Cs..

Markets can remain irrational longer than a person can remain solvent.

It's better to be lucky than smart..; September 27, 2010 at 3:40 PM
Jennifer said...: Prechter on CNBC now -- defending the DOW 1000 call. Maria is being surprisingly professional and deferential. He isn't really saying anything new. Pointing out how much HY debt issued recently. Advocating cash.; September 27, 2010 at 3:41 PM
AmenRa said...: HAHAHA the last thing the market wanted to do was take out its earlier low during the final 20 minutes. Figures.; September 27, 2010 at 3:44 PM
karen said...: if i were an nflx owner.. oh boy would i be selling..; September 27, 2010 at 3:44 PM
AmenRa said...: JNK and HYG are higher also.; September 27, 2010 at 3:44 PM
karen said...: $spx took out its open but no new lod..

annoying % correlations across the indices..; September 27, 2010 at 3:45 PM
I-Man said...: This market is absolutely the most frustrating pile of shit I have ever had the privilege to wade into.; September 27, 2010 at 3:48 PM
CV said...: @karen

My feelings on AAPL are that one day people are going to wake up out of their drunken haze and look around their junkpile...

They'll see that in the past 5-6 years they've bought 2-3 generations of I-Pod, nano's, & whatever, a few generations of i-phones, and maybe even an i-Pad or two...

Then they'll add up the cost of all they spent on those things, and realize that if the'd just said "NO"... The perhaps they'd have a few thousand dollars handy to use to buy gold, or some farming implements, or stocks (when the DOW hits 1,000, as Prechter says), or put a down payment on a house...

At that moment... AAPL is toast...; September 27, 2010 at 3:49 PM
karen said...: I-Man, LOL.. haven't laughed that hard since CV's 11:18 picture show.; September 27, 2010 at 3:51 PM
karen said...: we gotta find some bac news..; September 27, 2010 at 3:52 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I-Man,

You a bull, a bear, or a lion?; September 27, 2010 at 3:54 PM
karen said...: $sox turned trend chart up last Thurs-Friday.. but looking more like a bear trap today..; September 27, 2010 at 3:55 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I've got a limit order to sell (short) ESZ0 @ 1149... will probably get hit within the next few days.; September 27, 2010 at 3:56 PM
I-Man said...: Roadkill today...

Ask me tomorrow.

One trade at a time...; September 27, 2010 at 3:56 PM
Leftback said...: Hey dudes,

LB is feeling like Death on Toast, but had to crawl in to take care of a few things. Not even well enough to play futbol, K, but LB might be revived by a few of your classy icons.

Anyway, the reason I am posting is b/c LB was selling bonds today. My TLT is long gone, so was selling LQD and AGG. Basically the thesis is this: we are pricing in DEFLATION plus a MONSTER QE2 or even 3. If either of those fails to come to pass, it's CROWDED THEATRE time. Now God forbid if we actually created a job or two, it might be carnage at the short end. LB has made good money in fixed income and I hate giving it back.

Actually reduced bond longs from about 25% of the portfolio to 18% today, which is a big move for me. Have been mulling this for a while.

So what did I buy? Nothing. Right now LB is a CASH BULL. ROR...

Look, the fixed income guys and the equity guys have more or less made their quarters here. There will be peep taking profits over the next week or so, but LB feels like bonds are getting super-rich here. Equities could certainly run for a few more days.

Not short Treasuries but looking for entry points into the trade.; September 27, 2010 at 3:59 PM
karen said...: GuyAdami

Fantasy Trading Contest starts November 1st. Top prize is commission-free trading for life! http://bit.ly/cw6h0w; September 27, 2010 at 4:00 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Regarding treasuries...

If we finally get a modest pullback in stocks, which I'm expecting over the next few weeks, treasuries could benefit.; September 27, 2010 at 4:01 PM
Leftback said...: I thought FAST MONEY was Fantasy Trading Contest.
You mean Grasso is a real tarder? ROR...

That should be "trader", no wait, "tarder" is actually spot on.; September 27, 2010 at 4:02 PM
Leftback said...: "If we finally get a modest pullback in stocks, which I'm expecting over the next few weeks, treasuries could benefit."

Quite, and the reason I am not short. But the POMOs and auctions have introduced an odd dynamic, and I think we will just get a trading range set up that may be a very good trade. Now, if equities were sold and Ts didn't benefit, that's a big tell....; September 27, 2010 at 4:04 PM
karen said...: check aapl candle!! tomorrow could get very interesting..

orcl interesting as there was lots of chatter about insider selling..

LB, rolling my eyes as you professed to be dying if not dead.. altho i imagine you didn't have to bundle up and brave sleet and icy winds to find internet service..; September 27, 2010 at 4:05 PM
Leftback said...: K.,

I feel like crap, but there are just a few rain drops in the city today.
No Report today. Hope to be feeling better tomorrow.; September 27, 2010 at 4:08 PM

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Morning Audibles 9.27.10

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