A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Creditcane™: Time to prove that gravity is not just a theory.
SPXBearish short day (or a bearish harami wannabe). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above all SMA's. Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high) and was heading for 1151.86 (the .0557 fib from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1125.07). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish short day (start of a morning star). Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Well below its 61.8% retrace at 79.72. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 79.39).
VIXBullish short day (yet still confirmed inverted hammer). Midpoint above EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.89).
GOLDDoji day (set hanging man free). Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed test of new 0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1298.00).
EURUSDBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above its 50% retrace. Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3467).
JNKSpinning top day (stepped on dragonfly doji). Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above the 85.4% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.47).
10YR YIELDBullish harami day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 was resuscitated. Still below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60) and all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 27.95).
EURJPYSpinning top day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace at 114.4666. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 113.0501).
DJ TRANS AVGBullish short day (another hanging man pardoned). Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4475.12).
AAPLBearish spinning top day. Above all SMA's (I mean it IS the NASDAQ). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 283.77).
14 comments:
HH:
"we in the West may be confusing China's ability to create GDP growth with them creating wealth and I have to be adamant, that they are not the same"
Karen -- you were comparing SPX candles earlier today...I think that the 9/24 candle looks most like the Aug 2nd candle when taken in context...
"confusing China's ability to create GDP growth with them creating wealth and I have to be adamant, that they are not the same"
They are the same if GDP is growing more quickly than the population. Whether or not that wealth is largely concentrated is another issue entirely.
McF -- re: Reggie Middleton and JPM -- I love this guy and his analysis is really good (former subscriber) but there is no technical analysis / timing of entry of positions going on here at all. So, basically, at the end of the day, I felt like he confirmed what I suspected/feared all along, but there was no real actionable advice there. In fact, he was putting out super bearish stuff on banks he was just starting to cover in March and April of '09...if you took positions in them then you got screwed. I let him go since he was pretty pricey. Of course, I substituted the almost as pricey EWT/EWFF combo package so that judgment was questionable too...
McF -- re: Reggie Middleton and JPM -- I love this guy and his analysis is really good (former subscriber) but there is no technical analysis / timing of entry of positions going on here at all. So, basically, at the end of the day, I felt like he confirmed what I suspected/feared all along, but there was no real actionable advice there. In fact, he was putting out super bearish stuff on banks he was just starting to cover in March and April of '09...if you took positions in them then you got screwed. I let him go since he was pretty pricey. Of course, I substituted the almost as pricey EWT/EWFF combo package so that judgment was questionable too...
Anon,
perhaps you miss Hendry's point, but a question, what of Japan then, if what you say is true, what happened? I'm fairly certain, though I'd have to look it up, that Japans population growth in the 60's 70's and 80's ended up being far lower than their nominal GDP growth. Did that result in building wealth for the Japanese?
How about today for them....their population is in decline! an added bonus if what you say is true, while nominal GDP is far lower than what it used to be there, are they creating wealth when it runs above their declining population?
Anon, I second McFearless' first statement. HH is suggesting "China is building, that building is adding (*plenty*) to GDP, but it is *not* wealth".
Why isn't it wealth? Because no one is any "wealthier" by owning condos that no one lives in.
Now, someone might call this a lot of stupid state intervention. And, sure, it was. But, the final decision of whether to buy a stupid condo still remains with the individual. To me, it seems that Chinese consumers are building expensive tulips.
exactly wunsacon, when government needs to borrow and govt spending becomes a larger and larger part of GDP what is becoming clear is that the debt is mostly non-self liquidating, there is no production tied to the propping up of assets, nominal measurement of GDP does not capture this.
in other news, glad to see Jamie Dimon was finally able to sell his Chicago place, just a wee bit less than what he was asking for originally in April 2007.
well worth reading-
Pentagon Loses Control of Bombs to China Metal Monopoly
war worthy?
Ha! Yeah, let's outsource everything. I think Rome did that, too.
I'm taking my toys and going home: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&tkr=IBKR:US&sid=avTt81oBYr7U
Interactive Brokers Threatens to Curtail Options Market Making
By Nina Mehta and Whitney Kisling
Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Interactive Brokers Group Inc. may withdraw from some options market making because its regulatory obligations allow firms with the fastest computers to take advantage of the company, Chief Executive Officer Thomas Peterffy said.
Most exchanges require market makers to provide bids and offers in options across many strike prices and maturities. Because the contracts are derivatives whose value is tied to stocks or exchange-traded funds, market makers must constantly update quotes to reflect price fluctuations in the underlying security.
Interactive Brokers provides bids and offers for investors to trade against in about 300,000 products in the U.S., Peterffy said. His company isn’t able to update options prices fast enough to prevent high-frequency trading firms from profiting from inefficiencies when they’re too high or low given moves in the stock market.
“If there are no changes in the regulations, then we may discontinue as market makers in certain products on certain exchanges,” Peterffy, the company’s chairman who founded Interactive Brokers in 1977, said in an interview. “The high- frequency-trading firms are looking at the same input variables and it takes them much less time to pick off a handful of quotes that haven’t yet moved than it takes us to move the quotes.”
So what will happen between now and Dec 1 to prevent this: Mark Pittman Wins: Fed To Disclose Emergency Lending
(from ZH)
Mark Pittman's last valiant effort to bring some transparency to the most destructive organization in the history of mankind has succeeded. According to testimony to be delivered to the House tomorrow, "under a framework established by the act, the Federal Reserve will, by December 1, provide detailed information regarding individual transactions conducted across a range of credit and liquidity programs over the period from December 1, 2007, to July 20, 2010. This information will include the names of counterparties, the date and dollar value of individual transactions, the terms of repayment, and other relevant information. On an ongoing basis, subject to lags specified by the Congress to protect the efficacy of the programs, the Federal Reserve also will routinely provide information regarding the identities of counterparties, amounts financed or purchased and collateral pledged for transactions under the discount window, open market operations, and emergency lending facilities." Luckily this action by Bernanke will prevent the rioting that would have followed an appeal to the Supreme court, which would have certainly sided with the secretive group of Keynesian priests. If nothing else, the plethora of data will keep the blogosphere preoccupied for days upon days, rummaging through millions of pages of explicit corruption.
you think that's all really coming out tomorrow Ra? we'll see, but I'm a skeptic until then.
Ben
IAB forgoing market maker duties because of HFT is interesting. It won't happen over night but it's something to keep an eye on.
The Fed or some other body will find a way to stop the disclosure come hell or high water. Probably find a way to make it a national security issue.
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