AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: You have climbed to the mountaintop. Now I'm about to cut the rope.

SPX
Hanging man day (failed to confirm bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above all SMA's. Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high) and was heading for 1151.86 (the .0557 fib from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1125.07). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day (imploded the morning star). Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below its 61.8% retrace at 79.72. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 79.79).



VIX
Inverted hammer day. Midpoint slightly above EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.89). Trending down on daily 3LB.



GOLD
Hanging man day (major rope). Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1294.60).



EURUSD
Bullish long day (another star implodes). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and passed its 50% retrace. Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3384).



JNK
Dragonfly doji day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and passed the 85.4% retrace. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 39.47).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 gave up the ghost. Made a new 0%. Still below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60) and all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 27.95).



AUDJPY
Spinning top day. Held its 61.8% retrace. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 79.5441).



DJ TRANS AVG
Hanging man day. Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4382.93).




CRB
Shooting star day. Still above the 100% retrace at 280.69. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 280.14). Held above its monthly 3LB reversal price.

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 9.28.10

The EoQ beckons. Performance anxiety reigns on the Street as fixed income managers bought everything in sight. There are bonuses, bragging rights, Ukrainian escorts and lines of blow to compete for....

Greed is Blind.

Corpies: LQD 0.18%; AGG 0.24%; JNK 0.20%; HYG 0.15%;
Govies: TLT 0.68%; IEI 0.20%; TIP 0.70%
Hedgies: TBT -1.34%

We enjoyed the show for the last few days, and sold another tranche of our fixed income, selling AGG and LQD. We are now down from a high of near 50% bonds to something closer to 17%, of which most is now JNK, and zero is Treasuries. We are close to shorting TLT, very close.

It is possible that the low in TNX is not in yet, and that the JPY and TLT will continue to rally on as late-comers join the party. We may find that we have left money on the table. But we have booked some good profits this year in bonds and have largely eliminated interest rate and economic recovery risk from our portfolio.

We prefer to seek risk-free reward at the expense of reward-free risk. This is how we roll.