TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 9.23.10

Morning Audibles 9.23.10

Yesterday, somehow some malicious software got itself into my computer operating system so I had to go the NUCLEAR OPTION route and reformat my hard drive...

That's why I'm kind of out of pocket here as I'm re-assembling the pieces... Be back soon...

CV

256 comments:

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72bat said...: happy birthday, i-man; September 23, 2010 at 7:40 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.forbes.com/2010/09/01/economy-recovery-stimulus-opinions-columnists-nouriel-roubini.html?boxes=Homepagecolumnsblogs

V-Shaped Dreams Evaporate

"The truth is that we have not had much of a recovery in the first place, which might prevent the economy from falling enough to display what many would label a double dip—although we are now assigning a 40% probability to such an outcome. Weak economic growth and labor market conditions imply that the U.S. output gap keeps widening and the employment-to-population ratio will continue to fall. The anemic recovery and downward trend of inflation and inflation expectations are raising concerns that the economy could not only surprise to the downside but eventually stall. A growth rate of 1% or lower (now likely for H2 2010) is a severe growth recession, as potential growth is closer to 3%.

With growth nearly stalled, an unstable disequilibrium arises that is likely to tip the economy into a double-dip recession. The unemployment rate climbs, the budget deficit widens because of automatic stabilizers, home prices keep falling, bank losses are much larger and protectionist pressures come to a boil. Stock markets could sharply correct, and credit and interbank spreads could widen as risk aversion increases. A negative feedback loop between the real economy and the financial system could easily tip the economy into a formal double dip: The real economy reaches a near-stall speed and risky asset prices correct downward, leading to a negative wealth effect, a higher cost of capital and reduced business, consumer and investor confidence."

...And higher taxes, even the expectation of higher taxes, will simply add to this. No, next year looks like it won't be pretty...; September 23, 2010 at 7:45 AM
Ben22 said...: Happy B-day to the I. Hope you have a great one.

Looks like it could be an interesting day today.; September 23, 2010 at 7:52 AM
AmenRa said...: I-Man

Happy birthday!; September 23, 2010 at 8:11 AM
AmenRa said...: Today is shaping up for a Snagglepuss day.; September 23, 2010 at 8:18 AM
Jennifer said...: Happy Birthday I-Man!

CV -- Out of pocket? How BR of you!! :-)

So, any hope of breaking the 200?; September 23, 2010 at 8:29 AM
Jennifer said...: And...whoosh. Now that's a good morning.; September 23, 2010 at 8:31 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Ben,

How are you finding NeoWave?

Do they label their short term charts? That is one of my major peeves of EWI/Hack-berg.; September 23, 2010 at 8:42 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

HB Brah!

@Jenn

BR??? Not exactly... Here's TWSWB version...

"I'm out of pocket today because busy I'm shopping for boats in the Hamptons after my appearance on Kudlow, and attending the liberals of America grand debating society fundraiser and learning the proper way to slather Grey Poupon on my Ferrari with my left hand, while my right hand signs books..."

Me? I'm just a humble hard drive re-formatter after karen sent me to a link yesterday that bombarded my computer with malware...; September 23, 2010 at 8:42 AM
Jennifer said...: That was hysterical. I couldn't resist since I'd never heard that expression anywhere execpt at TBP. Funny, I hadn't been there in days but I, too, had tears in my eyes after the "unusual injuries" story. Sorry for the hard drive. Don't be too hard on Karen. Off to care for the parents and the wee ones. Hubby just sent me a copy of an obituary where the family of the deceased asks that in lieu of flowers mourners send contributions to the political campaign of whoever runs against Obama in 2012. Have a good day everyone!; September 23, 2010 at 8:46 AM
karen said...: CV, I go to all my links! sorry just the same for your trouble.. hope no one else here was infected similarly. good morning all and birthday wishes to the I-Man! could be a birthday to remember..; September 23, 2010 at 8:53 AM
Anonymous said...: jennifer- where you been?

"out of pocket" is "businessese" slang- just like saying you're on the "down low" because you mis-priced and cost the company some change-

and yesterday- I was glad to hear b22 talk about compliance training-

glad to know I wasn't the only one suffering

CV-

try downloading MalwareBytes- a great anti-malware tool; September 23, 2010 at 9:07 AM
karen said...: just noted on a 16 day, 60 min, dto chart, inv H&S..

substitute USO and, you got it, an H&S..; September 23, 2010 at 9:07 AM
karen said...: and i'll keep my links to myself!; September 23, 2010 at 9:08 AM
CV said...: @karen

Not really a problem... (tutto sommato)...

In fact, I'd been kind of wanting to just do a complete re-format of the hard drive anyway (which I do from time to time)...

I'd never found the time...; September 23, 2010 at 9:09 AM
ben22 said...: @McHappy,

After I bought MEW I subscribed to NEoWave's S&P forecasts to help with the book training. One thing you'll notice about NeoWave is that they are so much more specific about timing, and to a trader, that is huge.

@CV,

get a Mac

@ahab,

I'm an anti-money laundering pro this morning....; September 23, 2010 at 9:11 AM
Anonymous said...: been seeing a lot of unusual deals lately-

got a Korean lady wants to cash out on a New Jersey property and expand a home based Korean Doenjang company-

. . .and I am like- what the hell is Doenjang?

marginal credit w/ a judgement- but I think I can pull it off anyway; September 23, 2010 at 9:11 AM
CV said...: @ahab

I'm not sure it was really "malware" per se...

It was just something that got in there and intercepted my browser...

My browser, then wouldn't come up unless, of course, I went to this site, gave my credit card, and downloaded their PROTECTION service...

Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhh!

I couldn't remove the damn thing, so I decided to go the nuclear option...; September 23, 2010 at 9:12 AM
CV said...: @b22

I have a mac... But I also have a PC, and I happened to be on the PC when it happened...; September 23, 2010 at 9:13 AM
CV said...: The MAC is in WVA...; September 23, 2010 at 9:15 AM
ben22 said...: CV

I was just playing, but all joking aside, I'll never buy another PC again.

I'm no computer whiz by a long shot, so for someone like me that needs the computers to work all the time, once you go Mac, you never go back.; September 23, 2010 at 9:15 AM
Leftback said...: Happy birthday, I-Dude.

Congrats to all the overnight shorties. You know I like to think of Karen wearing something short overnight.

That was a good call.
Karen must be almost in ecstasy by now.; September 23, 2010 at 9:17 AM
Jennifer said...: @ahab -- where have I been? Hmmm....lets see...I've been driving around suburbia with my posse of kids strapped into their car seats in the back of my minivan and occasionally folding mountains of laundry while watching the ticker scroll by on the bottom of the CNBC screen. For 9 years. Before that, I have these vague memories of a law firm...what I really remember though is that the Starbucks in the lobby of my building got rolls of all the new quarters first, so you get get a jolt of caffeine and a new state quarter all at the same time. Ahh...corporate law. Nobody (at least at my level!!!) was ever "out of pocket."; September 23, 2010 at 9:17 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

that's funny- I do that same exact training- got my eye out for suspicious activity so I can file and SAR-

lol

CV- hate to say- but that's malware- next time-

load up in safe mode- and run anti-malware software-

it will take the malware out back and shoot it; September 23, 2010 at 9:18 AM
CV said...: CV was short overnight...

(looking, hopefully, for that 1110 - as mentioned yesterday)...

I'm contemplating booking profits somewhere here near the open tho...

We'll see how deep this thing goes... Something tells me this is a "correction" (and not the big one)...; September 23, 2010 at 9:20 AM
Leftback said...: This might be an interesting precedent:
Court Voids Condo Purchase on Upper East Side; September 23, 2010 at 9:21 AM
Anonymous said...: jennifer-

next time you need a (sounds like a much needed) break- leave a message on your cell phone saying you will be out of pocket for a while-

and then take a nice long nap (of course if your kids are still little munchkins- may not work out to well); September 23, 2010 at 9:23 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: The unemployment numbers were what they were..but the worldwide numbers for the case of a slowing global economy...for the last couple of days look pretty weak, or a least as though a downtrend is developing...

http://www.rttnews.com/CorpInfo/EconomicCalendar.aspx

..You go back by going to the bottom of the page and choosing the day before...; September 23, 2010 at 9:27 AM
Jennifer said...: CV -- I have a bad feeling that we won't break through 1116. I was short too, but since my profits have been scarce, I might take what I've got and call it a day.; September 23, 2010 at 9:30 AM
Leftback said...: 10y at 2.48% this morning. Another great day to sell Treasuries.; September 23, 2010 at 9:34 AM
Leftback said...: Under 1127, Karen..... are you, um... excited ??

Karen.... ??; September 23, 2010 at 9:37 AM
Anonymous said...: alright- going to whip up a three egg omelet w/ shitake mushrooms, little red onion, a little colby jack- topped w/ avocado and tomatoes-

sounds pretty damn good doesn't it? and then I gotta roll-

but did everyone see my post from last night (which I purloined from ZH)-

pretty eerie- I am going enter into my calender an 11:00 9/30 Walmart visit- just to check it out-

and Jennifer - also- fwiw- great decision I think- kids are lot of fun (some hassles- but mostly fun)- I really miss not having the little wankers running around anymore- as now they are 19, 17 and 12-

where does time go?

all have a good day; September 23, 2010 at 9:38 AM
CV said...: @Jennifer

I'm thinking pretty much the same thing...

For about two months now, I've been noticing that when the SPX leaves gaps behind, the tendency is to go back and give the "look" that they're going to get filled, then reverse somewhere in the middle of the candle before the fill is complete...

That said... The OPEN SPACE is around 1113... and that candle takes you to around the 1116 level...

I'm pretty sure some MA's are around that level too, but I haven't checked...; September 23, 2010 at 9:39 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep

#futures UBS sells 500 SPZs UBS sell 200 holding the GLOBEX lows at 1117.50; September 23, 2010 at 9:39 AM
karen said...: and aapl sets yet another new high... my aapl friend stopped over last night and he will never sell his apple stock.; September 23, 2010 at 9:41 AM
AmenRa said...: Looks like the market is trying to stop the onslaught before EHS comes out. It could easily go from -1.0% to -2.0% in a heartbeat.; September 23, 2010 at 9:47 AM
I-Man said...: Thanks for all the birthday wishes... yall rock.

Could this be the day?; September 23, 2010 at 9:48 AM
karen said...: oh brother.. existing homesales and leading indicators coming up..

gs at 145.67 and falling.; September 23, 2010 at 9:48 AM
McFearless said...: this morning I'll change my stops from break even so that I can hold on to some profit if it turns back.

I still worry we'll see 1170-1190, but I'm not going to cover yet either.; September 23, 2010 at 9:48 AM
Leftback said...: Karen, I should have held you overnight after all.
LB feels like fading any JOHNNY rally that develops.; September 23, 2010 at 9:50 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep

#futures GOLMAN sells 500 SPZs
less than 5 seconds ago via TweetDeck; September 23, 2010 at 9:50 AM
I-Man said...: These will be excellent spin barometers... these data points.; September 23, 2010 at 9:50 AM
CV said...: Oh no! we're all on the same page :-(; September 23, 2010 at 9:51 AM
Leftback said...: European bourses looking like merde.; September 23, 2010 at 9:54 AM
CV said...: @karen

remember I was pointing out that DAX chart the other day?

Look at the DAILY DAX candles...; September 23, 2010 at 9:57 AM
Leftback said...: Mr Market loves to f*ck with traders.

Perhaps this number won't suck quite as monstrously as we think. Leading indicators we already know, of course, no surprises there.; September 23, 2010 at 9:58 AM
CV said...: AAPL trying to stay green...

Emphasis on "trying"...; September 23, 2010 at 9:59 AM
I-Man said...: Keep wondering how this market will be able to handle true liquidation...

Everything we've seen thus far have just been tremors...

With no shorts in the tape, they will all pounce at once at the first smell of blood...; September 23, 2010 at 10:00 AM
I-Man said...: Then the hunters become the hunted...; September 23, 2010 at 10:01 AM
Leftback said...: BTE !!!

When this rally stalls, LB will join Mr Shorty and Karen.
Even though Karen isn't speaking to LB.; September 23, 2010 at 10:02 AM
McFearless said...: we are still trending down in what appears to be a three wave pattern at this point, lots of overlap.

I see people saying it could be a complex series of 1's and 2's.....but that's doubtful

still looks corrective so we should be prepared to levitate again....stay ninja peeps.; September 23, 2010 at 10:05 AM
Leftback said...: As you know, LB loves fixed income. But he thinks that US guvvies have become too dear for his portfolio at present, and has instead begun to heart risk a little more, in the form of equities and high yield bonds.

Here is a commentary that seems timely:

Bond Markets Deaf To Reflation?

Not saying that there will be high inflation, just that the bond market is currently pricing in zero or less....; September 23, 2010 at 10:08 AM
AmenRa said...: Do the sell programs kick in on the 1st, 2nd or 3rd retest of 1130?; September 23, 2010 at 10:14 AM
karen said...: aapl 289.43!!; September 23, 2010 at 10:15 AM
karen said...: zerohedge

Tricky Dick Bove cuts MS 2010, 2011 EPS after saying banks can only go up, up, up.; September 23, 2010 at 10:15 AM
karen said...: August Leading Indicators Up: Fed Action Responsible
Spread between 10s and Fed funds pushed leading indicators up. Can anyone say QE2?

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Conference Board said on Thursday that its leading economic index -- a composite gauge of ten indicators including weekly jobless claims, stock prices and the money supply -- rose 0.3% in August, after a 0.1% increase in July. The rise was stronger than the 0.2% pick-up that economists polled by MarketWatch expected; nonetheless, the index has slowed to 2% in the six months to August, down from 4.8% in the preceding six months. The biggest positive contribution in August came from the interest rate spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and the federal funds rate, while the biggest drag came from the average weekly rise in initial jobless claims.
POSTED BY MARK AT 9:12 AM; September 23, 2010 at 10:16 AM
karen said...: selling off on good news would be good : )
crude selling off bit by bit still.; September 23, 2010 at 10:18 AM
Leftback said...: Anyone fancy another walk on the short side?; September 23, 2010 at 10:19 AM
Tricky Dick said...: "I'm not a crook"; September 23, 2010 at 10:19 AM
I-Man said...: Getting close, Lefty...

Still upside here, if it wants it.; September 23, 2010 at 10:22 AM
CV said...: On 1 minute charts...

There's a perfect price channel down from 1148 the other day...

Doesn't look to be quite complete yet...

@Amen

Maybe that TEST of 1130 comes when the LD of that price channel arrives... I could co-incide with a little mini extended 5 wave off today's bottom...; September 23, 2010 at 10:22 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep
#futuresspx 1126.50 high in the SPZ real quiet here
less than a minute ago via TweetDeck; September 23, 2010 at 10:23 AM
McFearless said...: I would rather add at higher prices or on momentum down here, fwiw.; September 23, 2010 at 10:23 AM
karen said...: i never left the short side..; September 23, 2010 at 10:23 AM
CV said...: I wouldn't be surprised to see a little FAKEOUT above that price channel to sucker in some stops...

I-Man knows all about those... It's his favorite thing to watch for...; September 23, 2010 at 10:24 AM
Leftback said...: Durables and new homes tomorrow.
That's not going to be pretty.

Karen, on the other hand, those are pretty feet...; September 23, 2010 at 10:25 AM
karen said...: ntflx is practically off the charts again today..; September 23, 2010 at 10:28 AM
CV said...: This is that PRICE CHANNEL I was referring to (10:22)...

Tho I'm sure most of you see it already...

NEW CHART IN THREAD; September 23, 2010 at 10:29 AM
Leftback said...: That's it JOHNNY, you've had your hour...; September 23, 2010 at 10:30 AM
karen said...: thanks, CV.. i'm not holding my breath to see if we bust up out of that channel..; September 23, 2010 at 10:31 AM
karen said...: 290 even on aapl.. you know that won't hold..; September 23, 2010 at 10:33 AM
Leftback said...: Our favorites, C and BAC are among the day's laggards.
Watch this thing get back to the opening level of the day and swoon....; September 23, 2010 at 10:34 AM
CV said...: I'm adding some shorts to the top of that channel (with some tight stops)...; September 23, 2010 at 10:35 AM
karen said...: this is an untrue tweet!! zerohedge

Only things trading: SPY, AAPL, AMZN
2 minutes ago via TweetDeck

In the Naz.. Qs and Sirus are most active.. Have I ever mentioned that I am literal to a fault ; ); September 23, 2010 at 10:36 AM
McFearless said...: karen,

it's 50-60 of the same stocks every single day for months, precious Citi is sometimes 20% of big board volume.

this will all end with tears; September 23, 2010 at 10:36 AM
McFearless said...: keep an eye on the trannies, we've gotten our Dow Theory non-confirmation.; September 23, 2010 at 10:38 AM
karen said...: in the dow.. BAC and Intel are the most active.. and C looks to be the most active stock of all, as usual..; September 23, 2010 at 10:38 AM
McFearless said...: did you guys see that post from BR this morning about BAC foreclosing on a guy that paid cash for the house he bought?; September 23, 2010 at 10:40 AM
karen said...: ben, i did.. there had been a mtg on the house in the recent past, tho.. so it's not as UFB as it is painted but still.. just shows you how backed up and screwed up everything is..; September 23, 2010 at 10:45 AM
Leftback said...: JOHNNY is staying a long time today... eff off, JOHNNY...; September 23, 2010 at 10:45 AM
karen said...: BR also had a good post about the Swedish Model again.. the US has screwed up horrifically 2 times in 10 years.. aftermath of 9-11 and aftermath of the financial crisis.; September 23, 2010 at 10:47 AM
Leftback said...: BAC really is a criminal enterprise that swallowed an incompetent one (MER). These people are just members of a crime syndicate, and the sooner we acknowledge that and use the RICO statutes, the better.; September 23, 2010 at 10:47 AM
karen said...: now we know why copper is up! Russia Approves 10% Export Duty On Nickel And Copper
10:35 AM ET | Dow Jones; September 23, 2010 at 10:48 AM
mcHAPPY said...: This is from yesterday and may have already been commented on and I did post on Ra's Wrap this mornign as well but I find it very interesting:

Bonds seldom lie.; September 23, 2010 at 10:49 AM
Leftback said...: Hedges on?; September 23, 2010 at 10:50 AM
Leftback said...: McH

That link was a dollar chart, I think..?; September 23, 2010 at 10:51 AM
McFearless said...: dont' forget about countrywide Leftback, I'm not sure who was worse, them or MER.

and BAC, they had their own "issues" before they got either of those other two, this is one company I'm very familiar with since they took over half of DE when they bought MBNA.; September 23, 2010 at 10:51 AM
CV said...: "Russia Approves 10% Export Duty On Nickel And Copper"

As CV always says... "Nickles Bitchez!"; September 23, 2010 at 10:53 AM
I-Man said...: Or Wachovia...

(The Dark Horse); September 23, 2010 at 10:53 AM
CV said...: Get -em while they're hot!

Get 'em before they start making 'em with zinc...; September 23, 2010 at 10:54 AM
Leftback said...: K,

LB has his shorts back on...; September 23, 2010 at 10:54 AM
Leftback said...: Countrywide was an obvious criminal operation.
Mozilo is clearly a crook and should be rotting in jail.; September 23, 2010 at 10:56 AM
I-Man said...: I-Man is fixing to get a bid filled here... tough to short into higher highs and higher lows... they've really strung em together now, so until the plug is pulled, might as well ride...

Check yall at lunch time.; September 23, 2010 at 10:56 AM
karen said...: Macro Man was funny today: http://macro-man.blogspot.com/; September 23, 2010 at 10:56 AM
Leftback said...: Yes, I was going to post the European maps, bloody hilarious.; September 23, 2010 at 10:57 AM
karen said...: LB, you are quicker and more nimble than Jack! must be all the futbol.; September 23, 2010 at 11:02 AM
Leftback said...: LB has been known to take his shorts on and off, Karen.
We heart Profits, but not Risk.; September 23, 2010 at 11:10 AM
karen said...: cat back at its high..; September 23, 2010 at 11:18 AM
karen said...: gld also moving back toward its high..; September 23, 2010 at 11:19 AM
AmenRa said...: AUDJPY, EURJPY, C, BAC, GS, JPM, WFC, Oil all are down. The market is struggling. The pin has been pulled and they're playing hot potato.; September 23, 2010 at 11:19 AM
McFearless said...: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/09/janet-tavakoli-on-myth-of-amoral-debtor.html

Social mood is going to destroy the persona of Warren Buffett, how and when I don't know, but I don't think he'll be admired as he is today within a decades time.

People dumping all their BRK-A or B shares just because of Mungers comments?

Interesting times.....; September 23, 2010 at 11:21 AM
Leftback said...: Eventually the entire capital markets structure will be vilified.
That will be a great time to buy....; September 23, 2010 at 11:22 AM
Leftback said...: LB is popping out for a spot of lunch.
Make sure Blanky can't see my stops.; September 23, 2010 at 11:23 AM
I-Man said...: You could always "cover" them... then he wouldnt see them.

:); September 23, 2010 at 11:28 AM
AmenRa said...: I see the usual bump post European market close is still in effect. Again hot potato, hot potato, baker man...; September 23, 2010 at 11:32 AM
I-Man said...: Long oven mits...; September 23, 2010 at 11:36 AM
AmenRa said...: What is F up to? Their volume is higher than C.; September 23, 2010 at 11:38 AM
CV said...: Magic Johnson fadeaway jumper...; September 23, 2010 at 11:39 AM
McFearless said...: did he ever actually jump though?; September 23, 2010 at 11:40 AM
McFearless said...: DR, sticking to his story today:

The Fed just laid down the gauntlet and is preparing for a battle with the inevitable deflationary backdrop, while central bankers think they can merely start up a printing press, the reality is that the current crew of policymakers have only lived their lives fighting inflation and actually have no experience at all in combating deflation. This will be a long war and along the way, before we get the real policy-induced inflationary credit cycle that turns the secular bull market in bonds into a bear market, yields at the curve are going to drop to levels that will literally freak everyone out — perhaps everyone except for us, Van Hoisington, Doug Behnfield, Stephanie Pomboy and Gary Shilling.; September 23, 2010 at 11:46 AM
CV said...: @McF

Don't think so... but it was a SWEET shot tho...; September 23, 2010 at 11:47 AM
McFearless said...: CV,

Magic was one of the greatest players ever, I remember being a little kid and going over to my grandpa's house, who was a big Celtics fan, and watching games over there.

that was a great time; September 23, 2010 at 11:49 AM
CV said...: Not a "baller" like TG tho... ROR; September 23, 2010 at 11:50 AM
CV said...: Here's the last little WIGGLE CV is looking for... Before we go "slip slidin: down to 1110...

NEW CHART in THREAD (with AH prints)...; September 23, 2010 at 11:51 AM
karen said...: CV, it is looking iffy.. nice chart tho!; September 23, 2010 at 11:54 AM
CV said...: @karen

Nice place to go short with a tight stop tho...; September 23, 2010 at 11:54 AM
CV said...: Unless the ENTIRE S&P has just become AAPL...; September 23, 2010 at 11:55 AM
CV said...: aapl up 17 out of last 19 days?

C'Mon man!; September 23, 2010 at 11:57 AM
CV said...: aapl up almost 50% since flash crash lows...

C'Mon man!; September 23, 2010 at 11:58 AM
CV said...: Plus...

They have to start getting these BANKS a little cheap and scary right now...

So that johnny starts dumping at will, and lloys & jamie can swoop in with some call options around earnings season reporting for a pump and dump job...; September 23, 2010 at 12:04 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Right you are LB,

Here is the correct link showing SPX overlaid with TNX. I think we have a true leading indicator.; September 23, 2010 at 12:06 PM
CV said...: @karen

Heres a little broader look (5 min charts), drawn out a few days with some FIB extensions & price channels...

new chart in thread; September 23, 2010 at 12:12 PM
karen said...: mcH, this used to work as well: hyg:lqd.. but nothing is what it seems as far as i can tell.. "Investors are deaf to screams of..."

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMjtKlwvkUOc; September 23, 2010 at 12:13 PM
CV said...: @McHappy

Well... CV thinks that TNX yield has to get itself lined up with SPX 840...

Cause that was my "call" for the 2010 low... lol; September 23, 2010 at 12:13 PM
karen said...: i like that chart, CV, and will LOVE it if it holds..; September 23, 2010 at 12:14 PM
karen said...: i know, right?! $tnx is not lined up properly!! so maddening..

i'm having a hard time following today.. i am too weary of all this baloney.; September 23, 2010 at 12:16 PM
karen said...: running aapl to 300 seems questionable at best.. amzn? nflx? C'Mon man!; September 23, 2010 at 12:17 PM
CV said...: me too...

I'm crossing my fingers...

Ironically... It doesn't imply any immediate threat...

We could just bounce along the upper line on that all afternoon...

Then either break to the upside, or break down at any given time...

Righ now, I'm favoring a scenario where we sell off into the close and end somewhere around todays lows...

Then we print somewhere around whatever support is (either lower price channel, or, 1110)...

Tomorrow should be some POMO activity so that may put a floor in possibly...

my 2 cents; September 23, 2010 at 12:18 PM
CV said...: @karen

Well you KNOW Cramer is going to be all over TV talking about that it AAPL is at 290, then perforce it's going to 300...

It would sound like a perfect reason not to make it...

THIS TIME...; September 23, 2010 at 12:20 PM
CV said...: Kind of like crude going to $200...

That didn't work out too well...; September 23, 2010 at 12:21 PM
mcHAPPY said...: I am puzzled. I can see a complete 5 at 1144 AND 1148. I can also see those 'tops' as being third waves therefore a push higher to maybe 11550-1160 range.; September 23, 2010 at 12:23 PM
CV said...: One of the reasons I like the idea of more weakness here is that it seemed like the market was TOO HASTY to find a bottom this morning...

Just a feeling I had...; September 23, 2010 at 12:23 PM
Everyone's Ex-Girlfriend said...: I kno, right?

( via Twitter ); September 23, 2010 at 12:24 PM
CV said...: @mcHappy

We probably are going higher in the end...

But maybe not before these algos do some damage to the bulls & bears in between who have no conviction...

Probably a lot of hedge funds who can still blow up before the end of the quarter...; September 23, 2010 at 12:25 PM
CV said...: Miki? (12:24); September 23, 2010 at 12:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Possibly. Did she put a little heart on top of the first i...?; September 23, 2010 at 12:29 PM
CV said...: Trivia Question only one would know...

What color was the Stella McCartney sweater?; September 23, 2010 at 12:34 PM
Leftback said...: This is boring...

KAREN, new icon please.... the more exciting, the better.; September 23, 2010 at 12:42 PM
I-Man said...: Mine was red, gold, and green...; September 23, 2010 at 12:49 PM
Leftback said...: Another really nice piece of analysis:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp-topping-out-usd-bottoming-out; September 23, 2010 at 12:50 PM
CV said...: red, gold & green?

Is this YOU I-Man?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmcA9LIIXWw&ob=av3e; September 23, 2010 at 12:51 PM
I-Man said...: I'd rather be Curious George, than Boy George...; September 23, 2010 at 1:00 PM
CV said...: @karen

look at this $SPX daily chart and see how it coordinates with the 200MA & the 50MA...

new chart in thread; September 23, 2010 at 1:02 PM
CV said...: @Amen

And check that out...

Observe the 200MA (edging up slightly - but flattening)...

Howz about the wave PEAK of the 200MA eventually to reach 1121 (the 50% fibo from 1576 - 666)...?

Hmmm?; September 23, 2010 at 1:06 PM
Leftback said...: Dribble or Ramp?

Today feels like a trickle down close...
I mean, no-one's seen COLD STEEL.; September 23, 2010 at 1:15 PM
Anonymous said...: I kno, right?; September 23, 2010 at 1:16 PM
Leftback said...: LB just got a bit larger.; September 23, 2010 at 1:20 PM
Leftback said...: Where is Karen when LB is replete with double entendre?; September 23, 2010 at 1:20 PM
CV said...: Trying on "entendre wicking" garments I suppose...; September 23, 2010 at 1:24 PM
karen said...: great chart, cv.. not that i like its bullish implications.. i could close out my sds for some small change, sighing.. dto is tempting me again.. b

sorry, ive got numerous distractions here.. gotta leave for the airport soon, too.; September 23, 2010 at 1:29 PM
karen said...: http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/23/liverpool-fans-mount-new-offensive-against-hicks/?src=twt&twt=nytimesdealbook

http://www.businessinsider.com/marc-faber-hyperinflation-2010-9; September 23, 2010 at 1:37 PM
karen said...: "Basically, if you look at consumption as a percent of the economy and at housing activity, the excessive debt growth began essentially after LTCM and, I have to say, it was a huge mistake of the Treasury and Fed to bailout LTCM because it gave Market participants in the financial sector a signal that there is a Greenspan put, and later on a Bernanke put, with an even higher strike price and this resulted in excess leverage. So, if you have problems, the Federal Reserve will bail you out or the system will bail you out. That’s where I think the Federal Reserve acted irresponsibly—irresponsibly—that has to be said very clearly. They didn't pay attention to credit growth. Every central banker in the world pays attention to credit growth, but not in the US." Faber; September 23, 2010 at 1:38 PM
Leftback said...: Lovely feet....

Not you, Marc. I meant Karen...; September 23, 2010 at 1:41 PM
Leftback said...: LB can almost smell the profit-taking.....

Does anyone really think Durables was a rip-snorter in August?
Plus it's Friday tomorrow.

- after Labor Day, Friday is the new Friday.; September 23, 2010 at 1:48 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I also have lovely feet..by the way.; September 23, 2010 at 1:53 PM
I-Man said...: Now I-Man is short, Left.; September 23, 2010 at 1:58 PM
I-Man said...: Yeah, yeah, yeah... fuck you too Lloyd.; September 23, 2010 at 2:03 PM
I-Man said...: Last time I EVER advertise a trade...; September 23, 2010 at 2:04 PM
CV said...: @Amen

I was just fooling around and looking at some QUARTERLY 3lb scenarios...

Did you realize that 1010 was just about the 61.8% retrace from the high quarterly close (March 31st = 1169.43), and the quarterly reversal line (June '09 = 919.32)... (1014.86)

1116 would be the 61.8% from the June '10 quarterly close back to the March '10 quarterly close...; September 23, 2010 at 2:04 PM
Leftback said...: NO way we are going down very far until after Q3. The Q3 performance chase is still on and that will decide the MONSTER BONII for 2010. So a quick drop, buy the dip and back to the momo next week.; September 23, 2010 at 2:17 PM
Leftback said...: We stopped today at 1134, top of that trading channel CV drew.

Now the bottom of that channel is 1116-1120 or thereabouts, depending on how long this takes to play out.

I must be bored to talk short term waves. LB never does that stuff.
Usually we are all about the macro, Karen's panties, that kind of stuff.; September 23, 2010 at 2:25 PM
CV said...: Ah yes... "the chase"

part of "THE FUN"; September 23, 2010 at 2:26 PM
CV said...: Quick...

Without looking... What's on the back of a US $20 bill?; September 23, 2010 at 2:28 PM
Leftback said...: LB really misses those RoboTrader posts on daily ramp jobs.

Mainly, I read it for the articles, obviously...; September 23, 2010 at 2:40 PM
Leftback said...: C

The White House. What's on the back of a $100 bill?

[AKA: Bankster coke snorting aid...]; September 23, 2010 at 2:42 PM
Anonymous said...: I kno, right?; September 23, 2010 at 2:42 PM
Johnny Retail said...: Brian?
Tawny?

I don't like the look of this market today...; September 23, 2010 at 2:43 PM
CV said...: "What's on the back of a $100 bill?"

A half gram of coke...; September 23, 2010 at 2:44 PM
Leftback said...: Sell em, Lloyd....; September 23, 2010 at 2:47 PM
Leftback said...: If FOMC intervention ultimately fails, Bernanke can always resort to an alternative method of taming the Bear.

Woman Fights Off Bear Armed with Zucchini

See LB even translates for y'all...; September 23, 2010 at 2:50 PM
McFearless said...: Busy today....just came across this:

Warren Buffett says that, in his "common sense" opinion, we are still in a recession.

So what the heck is that, didn't he just say late last week there was no way we'd go into a double dip recession?; September 23, 2010 at 2:56 PM
McFearless said...: hate to say it squad but I don't think we've hit the top o' this run yet....; September 23, 2010 at 2:58 PM
I-Man said...: Just booked a 31 tick gain on my 31st birthday... thanks, Jah.; September 23, 2010 at 3:00 PM
McFearless said...: Buy and Hold isn't dead:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/no-buy-and-hold-is-not-dead-says-tongue--it's-just-sleeping-535446.html?tickers=MSFT,BP,JNJ,KO,%5Espy,%5Edji,QQQQ&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=; September 23, 2010 at 3:00 PM
McFearless said...: nice one I.

how many contracts they letting you push around these days?; September 23, 2010 at 3:00 PM
Leftback said...: Yeah baby... LB sees GREEN on the SCREENS.

About time we got a day trade right in equities.
Usually we have that "L" on our foreheads...; September 23, 2010 at 3:01 PM
Anonymous said...: I kno, right?; September 23, 2010 at 3:01 PM
Leftback said...: She's consistent, I'll say that for her.
Just not very deep...; September 23, 2010 at 3:01 PM
McFearless said...: Maria B had a long interview with the Spanish finance minister or something or other yesterday afternoon, I will try to dig it up here so others can hear the claims he made, I think it will be a video to remember in the fullness of time; September 23, 2010 at 3:02 PM
I-Man said...: Sigh...

1.; September 23, 2010 at 3:02 PM
McFearless said...: eh, 31 ticks is 31 ticks...; September 23, 2010 at 3:04 PM
I-Man said...: Tryin not to kick myself about the extra 13 I left on the table goin for that stupid 31... haha.; September 23, 2010 at 3:07 PM
I-Man said...: The I likes symmetry tho...; September 23, 2010 at 3:07 PM
McFearless said...: here it is, it was the Prime Minister:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1597555289&play=1

I would highly suggest watching all the way through, he has made some extremely bold claims in this clip, it should be one to remember.; September 23, 2010 at 3:07 PM
I-Man said...: wow... that was a big one; September 23, 2010 at 3:10 PM
Leftback said...: Ripped this from Jesse. You can see the big red bars - this market loves to throw 30 point down days. LB thinks one of those is on the way:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/TJtgJ3MAi3I/AAAAAAAAOtY/W9LLMd8BZAU/s1600/spfutuesdaily10.PNG; September 23, 2010 at 3:10 PM
I-Man said...: Ben, on a 1min chart, do you count that as one big wave 1 off the prelunch high?; September 23, 2010 at 3:13 PM
McFearless said...: the inverse H&S is not a great example of a solid H&S, the volume does not match, among other things for an ideal pattern, the far larger H&S building over a decade now is a near perfect example, and further, I see nobody talking about it.

after looking at his chart is it ok that I keep seeing red and blue lines flashing in front of my face?, lol.; September 23, 2010 at 3:14 PM
Leftback said...: Sell 'em bitchez...; September 23, 2010 at 3:21 PM
Leftback said...: McF

I was just struck by the big red bars.
- and by how we are so overdue another one.; September 23, 2010 at 3:22 PM
McFearless said...: I-man,

I try not to count that short term because the rules get broken constantly, on that time frame I basically admit that E-wave doesn't really "work"

where I think we are?:

hopefully this isn't too confusing I'll email you a chart later.

I have a few counts at work right now but the one I prefer best has us in a wave 2 of C or in wave 4 of 1 of C right now, counts aside, what I'm getting at is that the down move still looks corrective so far if I'm being totally objective. I think psychologically waves 3 and 5 up if that is the right count should drag people into the market and "off the sidelines"

The C wave could complete at several different levels, and possibly even above the April highs, though I'm not confident at all that it can get there at this time so I'm using it to build shorts rather than to try and scalp long given my pref. for position trading.

either way, once this run is over, so is the bull run from the March 09 lows, I pushed P3 aside a couple months ago once i started saying here that I couldn't count 5 waves down from the April highs even though EWI still marks it like that so we'll see who is right, I don't think they are.

I'll turn bearish if some downside targets are broken, like SPY sub 112 with some volume pick up but we aren't there yet, it would seem I'm trading very close to what AT is doing right now.; September 23, 2010 at 3:24 PM
McFearless said...: left,

I liked the chart it was just very busy. at least it didn't have a black background.; September 23, 2010 at 3:26 PM
McFearless said...: little OT but I heard some "data" today on the election here in DE that might be of some interest:

1. Mike Castle is apparently considering running as a write in candidate, so I would not write him off yet.

2. Why? because according to the data I heard, in New Castle County (where I live) which is far more populated than lower DE, Mike Castle won by about a 20% margin, where Odonnell got all her votes to win was in lower DE. For anyone that has ever lived in PA, politics in DE are similar, Western PA tends to lean way right whereas eastern PA/Philly, tends to lean further to the left/left center. Northern DE is far more left, by a long shot, than southern.

3. Castle is interesting because a lot of people in the state are cautious to vote for Coons (the Dem candidate) because of Harry Reid's comment that Coons was "his pet"

either way, things are gettinig tense here right now.

social mood bitchez; September 23, 2010 at 3:30 PM
AmenRa said...: Well we're below the daily 3LB mid pushing towards a daily 3LB reversal. 30 more minutes...; September 23, 2010 at 3:31 PM
Leftback said...: This is a bit tasty for those of us on the short side.

Follow through tomorrow on nasty durables data, bit of panic from the long only crowd, and all done and dusted by noon?; September 23, 2010 at 3:35 PM
AmenRa said...: LB

A case of not wanting to be long over the weekend eh?; September 23, 2010 at 3:36 PM
Leftback said...: S&P 500 1,124.82
Somewhere at the airport Karen must be a very excited girl.

Ra, I think nobody wants to be long or short over the weekend....

This has played out very well for LB so far, will probably stay short overnight.... (cue the usual comments, Karen); September 23, 2010 at 3:39 PM
McFearless said...: I,

my main concern is in counting this as an impulsive wave down, you have to say then we are seeing a series of complex 1's and 2's down.

It's really hard to nail a count like then if prior to that we werent' already impulsing down in a fairly obvious fashion, and we haven't been, it's more just a choppy meat grinder with no progress either way, so I'm hesitant to think that's what is happening here.

if we are still correcting tomorrow though then there will be a further test of my POMO theory, which is that it cannot overwhelm the trend, if the trend is down POMO appears not to work and we have POMO days that close in the red, like yesterday, if the trend is up, then it appears that it's POMO "working"; September 23, 2010 at 3:43 PM
bob said...: EUR has a nice top to it. One bullish case is that the 20 d just passed above the 50 d.

Currency land has a very choppy feel today, look at the AUDUSD chart.

USDJPY holding in the area of 50% line of the recent intervention. Forex live pointed out that the prior downtrend line is now serving as support.; September 23, 2010 at 3:43 PM
I-Man said...: Cool, I follow ya Ben. Thx.; September 23, 2010 at 3:44 PM

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Morning Audibles 9.23.10

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