AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: Repeat after me: imagine what happens when there are no shorts to buy back...

Bearish thrusting day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above all SMA's. Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high) and heading for 1151.86 (the .0557 fib form high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1121.90). QE2infinity.

Bearish long day. Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 80.95 (.09 fib from low). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 82.05).

Bullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.89). Trending down on daily 3LB.

Bearish short day (no gap up so not a shooting star). Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed retest of 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1270.20).

Bearish engulfing day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed the 85.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.50).

Bearish long day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 has been holding (for now). Back below the 14.6% retrace (26.94), still below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60) and now below the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.99).

Spinning top day. Held its 61.8% retrace. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 79.5419).

Spinning top day. Above all SMA's (go figure). Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed above 23.6% retrace at 111.2083. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 108.0800).

Bullish long day. Tested and held the SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 101.26).

Bearish short day. Failed test of 100% retrace at 280.69. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 274.27).

Bullish short day. Holding above the upper trendline and all SMA's. There's a lot of hair on these daily candles. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4450.73). Trending up on the daily 3LB.


The Bond Report 9.21.10

The FOMC statement provided the two things that the Treasury market wanted to hear: the economy remains weak, and yes, indeed, there will be POMOs. In fact there are POMOs scheduled this week, so why not front-run those suckers right now? So they did... and the last run of Treasuries which had been under water, broke the surface.

It was a risk-off day. IG outperformed HY and Ts outperformed everything. There was also a massive flattener, but even 2y USTs reached another record low yield. Even TIPS were bid, and so was gold, which is a clear sign that all that liquidity has to go somewhere.

Corpies: LQD 0.76%; AGG 0.43%; JNK -0.28%; HYG -0.17%;
Govies: TLT 1.39%; IEI 0.49%; TIP 1.28%
Hedgies: TBT -2.72%

We think bearish economic data may lie ahead, and that this move in Treasuries continues for 2-3 days with POMOs dead ahead. We also think this may be the last Hurrah, and that investors should take advantage of this rally in Ts and IG corporates to quietly leave the building, exchanging these instruments with eager arrivistes before turning out the lights on the Treasury market for a few months.

We will be unloading more of our AGG and LQD this week. What we will do with the cash is another question, but we would be buyers of a pull-back in JNK and in equities.


Andy T said...

Thanks for the Bond Report LB.

Missed getting filled on the S&P short at 1150 by 1.5 pts....was sort of a "dick for tick," but oh well...have to be disciplined....

For some reason, it feels like we'll be able to sell 1170 soon

arbitrage789 said...

I don’t know if anyone has posted this or not, but here’s a video of Prechter describing the overbought condition of the market:

I’m largely in agreement with him, at least on the short term.

AmenRa said...

Must be the post FOMC blues :-)

Nic said...

Never mind lumber, Oats are up 88% in 4 weeks but the Fed says the problem is not enough inflation.

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