TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 9.22.10

Morning Audibles 9.22.10

And then there was one...

So I suppose everybody has heard the news that Snaglepuss Larry Summers is..

Otherwise known as: jumping ship, gettin' while the gittin's good, skippin town, gettin' the hell out of dodge...

Well, here's the OFFICIAL version (or one of 'em)...

Larry Summers leaving White House

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/09/21/larry-summers-leaving-whi_n_733711.html

The Obamanator remarked: "I will always be grateful that at a time of great peril for our country, a man of Larry's brilliance, experience and judgment was willing to answer the call and lead our economic team. Over the past two years, he has helped guide us from the depths of the worst recession since the 1930s to renewed growth. And while we have much work ahead to repair the damage done by the recession, we are on a better path thanks in no small measure to Larry's wise counsel. We will miss him here at the White House, but I look forward to soliciting his continued advice and his counsel on an informal basis, and appreciate that he has agreed to serve as a member of the President's Economic Advisory Board."

Translation: The stock market has been up all month, I just gave a telethon yesterday, and it was perfectly coordinated with some BS numbers by NBER & POMO activity by the Fed, so it ain't gonna get much better than this going forward...

Larry Summers, the director of the National Economic Council, will return to a teaching position at Harvard University at the end of the year...

In the interim "lame duck" period, and since he already has the proper costume, it's rumored he'll be kickin' it on the DEVO ('De-Evolution '10) World Tour...

"life's a bee without a buzz... It's going great, til u get stung..."
"And let us not forget to toast
everyone who might have missed the boat
And to everybody else who waits
Til the next one sails in again..."

Whatever Larry... Now that you've JERKED US BACK & FORTH for the 2nd time, don't let the door hit you in the ass as you BEAT IT, back to the Ivory Towers...

Or in your case...

Save Romer some pie for the re-union...

312 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 312 Newer› Newest»

spoonman said...: related to Ben's observation that puts aren't cheap:

http://pragcap.com/when-is-steep-too-steep; September 22, 2010 at 7:06 AM
Anonymous said...: here's one for y'all..

Here is a piece on the subject. It is dated Sept. 16, 2010.

http://www.darrenherman.com/2010/09/16/quantitative-analysis-fantasy-football/

The author of this post has apparently parlayed this into an enterprise.

http://www.varickmm.com/

An excerpt:

“I stumbled across Numberfire (I hate the name) from a friend of mine and did some research and saw that they were recently written up on TechCrunch. Numberfire applies data mining and statistical analysis to determine which fantasy football players to sit and/or start each week… they accomplish this by looking at many different data points that affect a players outcome such as the player itself, his team, his competition, and other factors.”

These guys have been looking at the mining solely in relation to FF. The point is to observe the behaviour(s)*. Frankly, it could be ‘fantasy anything’.

Just an idea.

http://techcrunch.com/2010/09/09/numberfire-gets-scientific-about-fantasy-football-picks/

AAIP; September 22, 2010 at 7:11 AM
72bat said...: happy birthday, ben!; September 22, 2010 at 7:21 AM
Ben22 said...: 72,

thanks man, appreciate it.

what a morning already, dollar back in the 79's.....; September 22, 2010 at 7:37 AM
Ben22 said...: this person Sugarman posted at Dan's last night, I always like this persons posts, often sees things I didn't catch, so maybe this is worth a read:

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2010/09/elliott-wave-update-21-september.html#comment-79944875; September 22, 2010 at 7:56 AM
Anonymous said...: here's a great headline-

"Summers' Stature Means Obama Faces Tough Task in Replacing Him"

ok then; September 22, 2010 at 7:57 AM
Anonymous said...: . . .and Snaglepuss- talk about bringing back some memories of Saturday morning cartoons; September 22, 2010 at 8:01 AM
ben22 said...: "will return to a teaching position at Harvard University at the end of the year"

pfft.; September 22, 2010 at 8:04 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: them that can, do
them that can't.....; September 22, 2010 at 8:26 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWa4fvrZOckY

Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Payrolls dropped in 36 U.S. states in August, led by Michigan, indicating the labor market will take time to rebound from the worst recession since the 1930s.

Employers in Michigan cut 50,300 jobs last month, the biggest drop since January 2009, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Texas and California rounded out the three states with the biggest job losses. Joblessness climbed in 27 states, with Nevada reaching a record 14.4 percent rate, the highest in the nation.; September 22, 2010 at 8:28 AM
CV said...: @MEH/AAIP

Thanks for that FF link...

I've often found that the stock "projections" numbers that ESPN & YAHOO uses aren't all that great (and find myself deviating from them all the time in setting rosters)...

A suitable example of this is the fact that I've used the MIAMI DOLPHINS defense already in both games this year, and depending on the league scoring parameters, the DOLPHINS D is, at the moment, the #1 ranked fantasy defense...

Knowing this before the draft, I didn't waste my time taking a D/ST in the regular draft rounds because I knew this would fall to me easily in the last round... Instead, I was able to bolster my squad by taking a better player (or even "sleeper") earlier on...

The Dolphins were playing the hapless Bills in week 1, and then got a chance to step in front of some Brett Favre interceptions in week 2...

I'm starting them this week as well (as I expect Marck Sanchez to revert back to form and toss a few picks as the Jets travel down to Miami)...

One drawback to that site in the link is that most FF leagues are CUSTOM...

The league commissioner sets the parameters on various styles of play...

So while one league may award more points for:

- 10 vs. 20 yards of receiving
- TD bonuses
- big game bonuses (100 yd rushing games & such)
- shutouts
- missed FGS & extra points

There's no way an analysis could get every scenario...

The best they could do would be to consider a DEFAULT scenario and then play an interactive role in plugging in the scenario for your particular league...

I'm in 3 leagues this year, and the parameters are different for each one... Imagine the people with 10 leagues...

Anyway - interesting theory... & it's certainly correct to apply the logic because the Yahoo & ESPN prognostications suck...

Ironically - there is a little EMOTIONAL value to them...

Why?

Because everyone, during the week, looks at the COMPUTER "match-up" for the game...

So let's say you had CHRIS JOHNSON on your team... (or look at it the other way - let's say you were FACING Chris Johnson - which CV was, in 2 leagues in week 2)... Even though they were playing the Steelers, CJ was "projected" for around 19 fantasy points...

So in the MATCHUPS - I had to stare at the screen all week and figure I was going to lose to teams that were going to score 100+ points (because CJ was coming up with 20 of them)...

Frankly - I wouldn't have started CJ (I know that sounds crazy, but it's true - Previous years, I've sat Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, LT, Brian Westbrook & others, all in their prime)...

Turns out - CJ only came up with 3 points (why? Steelers - Although he did have an 85 yd TD run nullified by penalty)...

Anyway - It's hard to ignore those stupid projections... But in the end you should... It would be like trying to pick a win against the pointspread by using one of those Madden Football simulations...

Entertaining... but bogus...; September 22, 2010 at 8:34 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: ...Is it possible the term double dip will take over the lead position in the jargon race from unexpectedly?

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- European industrial orders declined more than economists forecast in July, led by a drop in capital goods such as factory machinery.

Orders in the 16-nation euro area decreased 2.4 percent from June, when they rose 2.4 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists had forecast orders to drop 1.4 percent in July, the median of 17 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed. From a year earlier, July industrial orders jumped 11 percent after rising 23 percent in June.

European manufacturers may curb output and hiring as a cooling global economy threatens to undermine exports just as governments step up spending cuts. The European Commission on Sept. 13 forecast the region’s recovery would show a more “moderate” pace in the second half. In the U.S., the world’s largest economy, industrial output weakened in August.

“The global economic dynamic is already past its peak,” said Andreas Scheuerle, an economist at Dekabank in Frankfurt. “We’ll see some cooling in the second half along with weaker output growth even if we’re still far from a double dip.”; September 22, 2010 at 8:35 AM
72bat said...: "will return to a teaching position at Harvard University at the end of the year"
if he does not return before january, he loses his tenure.
sounds like he has no place else to go.; September 22, 2010 at 8:38 AM
Jennifer said...: Happy Birthday Ben!

I'm thinking this morning will be a good time to close out those October GDX calls. Too bad I'll be using any profits to replace the diamond that fell out of my engagement ring yesterday. I won't be around much since I'll be spending most of the day crawling around on the floor hoping that against the odds I find the darn thing.; September 22, 2010 at 8:38 AM
CV said...: Ivy League Football `Mafia' Gives Wall Street a Talent Pipeline

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-22/ivy-league-football-mafia-provides-talent-pipeline-to-wall-street-jobs.html

---

See people... If you wonder why we mix so much football into capital markets here... This explains it...

All the Wall St. guys are Ivy league footballers...; September 22, 2010 at 8:46 AM
72bat said...: jesse's post on summers' departure:
"After the November elections. Bloomberg television is already lobbying for a Wall Street or otherwise financially connected CEO to take his place.
"Is Bernie Madoff eligible for a work-release program?"; September 22, 2010 at 8:54 AM
Anonymous said...: I wonder if coppie nooners would trade Tolbert (so I can handcuff him to Mathews) for Fred Jackson-

not much use w/o Mathews-

viable trade?; September 22, 2010 at 9:02 AM
72bat said...: jesse posted a 9/21 'consumer metrics institute' report:
NBER: Double Dip or Banana Split?
"We founded the Consumer Metrics Institute precisely because we felt that the economic bureaucrats in Washington were out of touch with the economy that most of us live in. They remind us of those patients sitting in wheelchairs in the "memory impaired" wards at nursing homes: with crystal clear recall of 1937 but no clue about what they ate for breakfast. Thank you, NBER, for making our case."
"In contrast, we measure what consumers are actually doing on a daily basis."
"...if the 2010 contraction we are now monitoring in consumer demand for discretionary durable goods scales to the full economy as faithfully as the "Great Recession (of 2008)" did, the second dip will, at minimum, be 33% more painful than the first dip and will extend at least half again as long. This, of course, assumes that stimuli comparable to those seen in 2008-2009 will be available to cause such a recovery during 2010-2011. Furthermore, the upturn that we measured in 2008 started when unemployment was still at a 6.1% rate, substantially better than we are observing now. Absent fresh consumer stimuli and dropping unemployment rates, the consumer demand contraction we are witnessing now could very well linger even longer"; September 22, 2010 at 9:08 AM
AmenRa said...: Yen already back above its weekly 3LB mid heading for its weekly 3LB reversal at 1.18930. The Japan Finance Ministry should be freaking out about now.; September 22, 2010 at 9:10 AM
CV said...: @ahab

Look like Ritzy's having a go at Summers too...

But of course - Ritzy has to find a way - in the end - to Blame it all on Bush...

"The change people voted for never appeared, and the Summers led economic team gave us two more years of Bush bailout policies..."

Um, excuse me, but the Democratic majority in Congress (ushered in, in 2006) had as much, if not MORE to do with bailouts than anyone...

Bush was a lame duck by the issue of bailouts ever arrived...

In fact - the $$ given to GM was basically to BRIDGE the gap between the 2008 elections, and when the new Administration came into office...

It was just the jungle giving Tarzan one last vine so he could make it to the next tree...

Once again... RITZY changing the argument to fit his views...

OK BARRY OK... WE REALIZE YOU HATE BUSH... Most people do, so get in line...; September 22, 2010 at 9:11 AM
72bat said...: forgot to link to the cmi report
"September 18, 2010 - Has the Bottom Been Reached?"(scroll down to Commentary, about 1/3 down the page); September 22, 2010 at 9:14 AM
McFearless said...: thanks Jennifer.

i didnt' close my shorts yesterday, we'll see how today goes.

@all,

something great just happened. I never had a snuggie but I did want one, as I mentioned I almost bought one several times and always ended up putting it back. Well, someone from the office gave me one today for my b-day, and it's a PSU snuggie!

what a great day so far.; September 22, 2010 at 9:25 AM
72bat said...: Team Macro-Man doing a cv style post on BB & QE
The Drugs Don't Work; September 22, 2010 at 9:27 AM
Anonymous said...: CV-

my view- I wanted the TBTF's to get smacked down w/ corporate officers held accountable-

I din't really care who took that initiative- but when Obama nominated Geithner and brought in Summers- I knew that was all out the window-

(you know and I know where BR's sympathies lie)

what about my 9:02?; September 22, 2010 at 9:27 AM
CV said...: Was it a "Nittany Lions" print?

Your wife is going to be jealous when you start attracting cougars...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PacVvfhEB1Y; September 22, 2010 at 9:29 AM
CV said...: @ahab

How am I supposed to know what Coppie Nooners will do?; September 22, 2010 at 9:33 AM
CV said...: It's strange to me that although the dollar is getting whacked here...

The call options on UUP haven't really budged much...; September 22, 2010 at 9:35 AM
CV said...: I should say... future months OTM (on that)...; September 22, 2010 at 9:35 AM
karen said...: good morning! (not so much! what a shocker to me to see the dollar like this.. would someone pay back some debt already? without creating new debt? ) but that is what has been happening.. new debt taken on at lower rates to pay off old debt.. no deleveraging yet.. : (; September 22, 2010 at 9:38 AM
karen said...: see that aussie fly!; September 22, 2010 at 9:39 AM
Anonymous said...: well I guess the worst that could happen is he could tell me to go eff myself-

I can handle that I guess; September 22, 2010 at 9:40 AM
karen said...: if the dollar gets cheap enuf, won't someone find it attractive?; September 22, 2010 at 9:41 AM
CV said...: SLV busted out over its March 2008 high...

Somebody remind me again why I shouldn't buy silver coins...; September 22, 2010 at 9:42 AM
CV said...: @ahab

I offered you a trade for Ryan Matthews the other week...

You should have taken it...; September 22, 2010 at 9:43 AM
karen said...: so much for the yen intervention working.. how bizarre..

happy birthday, Ben! glad you are having a good day !; September 22, 2010 at 9:43 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep

[08:36:07 AM]: SPZ SB 100x 400 GS bot 200 initial res? 1038 area about 90 locals in pit; September 22, 2010 at 9:44 AM
Anonymous said...: CV @ 9:43-

no doubt- although a lot of the season is left- w/ Tolbert as a handcuff I'll feel a bit more comfortable; September 22, 2010 at 9:47 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep
[08:45:00 AM]: SPZ buy stops? above 1140.50 area w/next good res 1146 area; September 22, 2010 at 9:48 AM
AmenRa said...: Ben

Happy birthday!!!; September 22, 2010 at 9:49 AM
karen said...: uup to 22? this could get ugly..; September 22, 2010 at 9:49 AM
karen said...: new high on aapl.. so much for yesterday's candles unless we sell off.. Naz weak overall..; September 22, 2010 at 9:52 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://slatest.slate.com/id/2268187/?v=1#3

Americans Believe Cutting Deficit Will Help Economy

A majority of Americans think cutting the deficit is a better way to strengthen the economy than government spending, according to a Reuters Ipsos poll released on Tuesday. The poll found that 57 percent support deficit cuts while the economy is struggling.

...'Mericans are soooo close, "missed it by that much"....

..Were it a cancer, you wouldn't decrease it, you would elimate it...cold steel, I believe is the term.; September 22, 2010 at 9:52 AM
CV said...: I'd consider trading Sproles for Fred Jackson...; September 22, 2010 at 9:53 AM
CV said...: Congrats Ben Bernanke... I hope you like your monster...; September 22, 2010 at 9:55 AM
Anonymous said...: Tolbert appears to be the "go to" after Mathews; September 22, 2010 at 10:05 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep

$ES_F #futures [09:02:59 AM]: SPZ initial sup 1132 area w/ stops ?? under yesterdays low 1131.00; September 22, 2010 at 10:08 AM
CV said...: @ahab

Classic thinking... But you can't base it on one half of football...

The Chargers were easily handling the hapless Jags... Garrard threw 4 picks which gave the Chargers good field position...

You can "go to" your fullback a lot when you're playing with a half a field...; September 22, 2010 at 10:08 AM
I-Man said...: Happy Birthday Benjamin!

Here's wishing you a good one, with a wicked reversal.

Any big plans for dinner?; September 22, 2010 at 10:08 AM
karen said...: hey.. did any of you note C's candle yesterday.. ?; September 22, 2010 at 10:09 AM
I-Man said...: AAIP...

Love that cat!; September 22, 2010 at 10:09 AM
Leftback said...: MY shorts are on, K, but I am stopless.; September 22, 2010 at 10:09 AM
McFearless said...: "It's strange to me that although the dollar is getting whacked here"

CV, the options pits are a bit strange right now to say the least, I'm not sure what to make of it at this point, something is brewing though.

@Ra,

thanks man.; September 22, 2010 at 10:10 AM
McFearless said...: @I,

thanks, maybe you'll get a TENN snuggie tomorrow.; September 22, 2010 at 10:11 AM
Anonymous said...: this comment kills me-

It really does make you wonder if the Fed realizes that so many Americans are in serious trouble and that something has to be done about it.

so what are they going to do? Mail room jobs at the Fed?; September 22, 2010 at 10:11 AM
CV said...: today's candle, thus far, is a good compliment to yesterdays C candle...; September 22, 2010 at 10:12 AM
McFearless said...: I got a mix going into the slow cooker this afternoon so I'll get to eat that later, it's going to be good, might take an early afternoon and hang with wifey the rest of the day, we'll see how things shape up after 1 or so.; September 22, 2010 at 10:12 AM
CV said...: @mcF

happy Birthday... But I caught you earlier in the week...

I-Man too...; September 22, 2010 at 10:12 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

thanks for the birthday wishes, or anyone else I missed, you guys are on fire with the posts this morning, I can't keep up.; September 22, 2010 at 10:13 AM
Anonymous said...: Garrard-

that dude's awesome :-)!!; September 22, 2010 at 10:14 AM
CV said...: @ahab

They could all make a giant human pyramid, and let Bernanke stand on top to drop dollars from it (if the helicopter breaks down)...; September 22, 2010 at 10:14 AM
karen said...: I ! It is supposed to be gorgeous this weekend! high 70s! 79! today it is 60 with a high of 70 expected.. Hope you are still coming : ) And the ocean is beautiful right now..; September 22, 2010 at 10:14 AM
Anonymous said...: I prefer unbirthday's myself-

there's 364 of those- every day is a celbration; September 22, 2010 at 10:15 AM
CV said...: @McF

Trade (from yesterday)...

Howie says 'Deal or No deal"?; September 22, 2010 at 10:15 AM
Leftback said...: Gold at new highs, spooz falling, this is pretty much what we expected.

Once BUCKY turns, the barbarous relic will fall hard and USTs will be sold. But it will take a few days and some decent economic data - which we are NOT going to see this week.

Happy b'day, Ben McF.; September 22, 2010 at 10:15 AM
McFearless said...: CV,

I can't answer just yet as I put a counter offer out there so am waiting to hear back, I'll let you know for certain by 1 pm.; September 22, 2010 at 10:16 AM
McFearless said...: thanks lefty; September 22, 2010 at 10:16 AM
karen said...: Nic updated her spx chart: http://stock.ly/content/details/3728; September 22, 2010 at 10:16 AM
I-Man said...: K,

I saw that... Saturday looks amazing.
Flying down tomorrow nite. Stoked fi beach...; September 22, 2010 at 10:16 AM
McFearless said...: am I crazy enough to take a new shot at UUP calls here?

I might be....; September 22, 2010 at 10:17 AM
Leftback said...: This is why LB thinks you will be able to hold the JNKy stuff longer than most think:

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1guMIufbfXg&pos=4; September 22, 2010 at 10:17 AM
karen said...: so bad econ data = lower dollar = higher stocks on QE but not the economy.. got it.; September 22, 2010 at 10:18 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

not sure if you caught my link this morning, but re: Nics chart, look at some other things line up right around her objective, these come from sugarman at Dan's site:

"Your 1158 around Friday is interesting!

SPX (10 point per day chart)

Tomorrow is the 57th trading day from the 1010.91 bottom. Starting at "0" on that day, the 2x1 time angle advancing up 20 points per day is at 1140 tomorrow, 1160 on Thursday, etc..

It is interesting that tomorrow is the 104th trading day from the 1219.80 top. Counting up 10 points per day from "0" is 1040 tomorrow. Remember the triple bottom was at this level earlier this month. This is a "Death Angle" and is 100 points below the market price currently.

If the market continues higher.....

The high price of 1576.09 was on Oct 11, 2007. Then 648 trading days later the market topped at 1219.80 for a difference of 356.29 points. Tomorrow is the 742nd trading day from the Oct 07 top. The 1576.09-1219.80 downtrendline is at 1161.72 tomorrow, 1161.16 on Thursday.

The 2x1 "time angle" described above will cross the downtrend line early Friday morning in the 1160.50 area."; September 22, 2010 at 10:19 AM
Leftback said...: K,

This is the JOHNNY HOUR. We are headed down, later today, or tomorrow after EXISTING (but not selling) homes.; September 22, 2010 at 10:20 AM
Johnny Retail said...: Yes it's my hour and I wanna buy buy buy.

Cramer and BRIAN told me to get busy early in the morning and then ignore the market at the close.; September 22, 2010 at 10:21 AM
Brian the Broker's Shapely Assistant Tawny said...: ooooo JOHNEEE, so bold and strong....; September 22, 2010 at 10:21 AM
McFearless said...: also, here's a short term chart from trade your way out:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_l2ArwNnohtQ/TJmFd70JgmI/AAAAAAAAA1M/AA_gVSZt9rQ/s1600/spx+220910.png; September 22, 2010 at 10:21 AM
CV said...: 3P&ADH?? (short term)

new chart in thread; September 22, 2010 at 10:22 AM
Leftback said...: Love it, my short is up, my LQD is up and my divvies are up !!
My LQD is so being sold this week along with some AGG.; September 22, 2010 at 10:23 AM
karen said...: Ben, had not seen that.. thanks.. but IF the market continues higher.. it has 1170 all over it in my opinion. but then, i don't think it is headed higher.. : ); September 22, 2010 at 10:23 AM
Leftback said...: 1170-1175 is plausible. That would bring out big sellers...; September 22, 2010 at 10:24 AM
I-Man said...: Ok Ben... Sugarman is copying my homework.; September 22, 2010 at 10:26 AM
Anonymous said...: Happy B'day Ben. I gather you have now completed wave 3 of 0. Have fun.

Prashant; September 22, 2010 at 10:27 AM
karen said...: copper reversed up today.. ufb..; September 22, 2010 at 10:27 AM
I-Man said...: Watch ye death lines...

Its the same on YM as he has layed out for SPX, time wise.; September 22, 2010 at 10:27 AM
Anonymous said...: Denninger regarding the Fed and the $-

It would be nice if these clowns would pay attention to the consequences of their acts. That, of course, would require that they cared, and I'm quite convinced they do not.

why would the Fed care about a lower dollar?; September 22, 2010 at 10:31 AM
Leftback said...: I think the BoJ are going to be tested, and so is the low on the 10-year. My guess is that both of those low water marks will hold this week while we have the POMOs, and then will reverse next week.

Love being short and not getting ramped....; September 22, 2010 at 10:32 AM
McFearless said...: Prashant,

ha, yes I have, thanks buddy.; September 22, 2010 at 10:38 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

oh sure, that 1170 range is certainly viable, AT had that in his charts from 9/4 I think was the date....he mapped this out pretty well when few other wavers had it.

You da man AT.; September 22, 2010 at 10:38 AM
Leftback said...: Sell 'em bitchez....

Go on, PANIC.... JUMP, you F*ckers...!!!; September 22, 2010 at 10:39 AM
McFearless said...: I,

yeah, sugarman also does his/her charts by hand like you do, lot of similarities it would seem between your work. that person only comments when they have something important to say.; September 22, 2010 at 10:39 AM
karen said...: if 1134 spx would break i would be one happy girl. and if 1133 would break i would be ecstatic..; September 22, 2010 at 10:41 AM
Giles Straightarrow said...: I say old chap.... that's not awfully sporting....; September 22, 2010 at 10:41 AM
spoonman said...: haha Lefty - I was just thinking those exact words...jump, you f*ckers; September 22, 2010 at 10:42 AM
Leftback said...: "and if 1133 would break i would be ecstatic.."

We are certainly hoping that happens for you, Karen. It would only take a bit of climactic selling for you to achieve ecstasy....; September 22, 2010 at 10:43 AM
McFearless said...: I'm having deja vu in reverse from last summers H&S.; September 22, 2010 at 10:43 AM
I-Man said...: Giles you chump...

I'm gonna leave dreadprints on your tweed.; September 22, 2010 at 10:43 AM
karen said...: Oh, no! CV, our favorite topic/fear:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/albert-edwards-terminal-competitive-devaluation-nuclear-option-and-how-feds-policies-may-sta; September 22, 2010 at 10:44 AM
karen said...: GS under 150 : ); September 22, 2010 at 10:45 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep

ED_F #option 1st Opt sold 12.5k E2Z 80-83 call sprd at 31 profit taking on the massive long call position in the Green(3yr) Euro$ options; September 22, 2010 at 10:46 AM
McFearless said...: I would think it's almost a foregone conclusion that a huge war is going to happen within 5 years because of all this mess, that's the historical pattern with financial crisis like this.

hope I'm dead wrong on this one; September 22, 2010 at 10:47 AM
CV said...: @McF

"last summers H&S"...

Perfectly on topic for today...

As "SUMMERS", it would appear, has no neck...

All H&S on that dude...; September 22, 2010 at 10:47 AM
Anonymous said...: b22 @ 10:47-

I wonder- Japan and China- maybe they'll be going at it-

and Japan's ally- the United States; September 22, 2010 at 10:54 AM
karen said...: CV.. check the JNK chart.. !! sitting right there on 39.58.. or the 5 ema.. candles being confirmed for the turn..

one of these days that sucker is going to prove to be too good to be true!; September 22, 2010 at 10:54 AM
karen said...: $ES_F $NQ_F #futures $SPX
By Top Notch
How about that initial move higher. Ouch!! The s&p opened at 1133.20-1134.50 and really never stopped until a high of 1139.70, just missing that all important upsdie # price of 1140.10. It then does an about face at 9:00a.m.CT and made a new low at 1132.50, holding the all important pivotal level of 1132.20. Now the update says a trade under 1131.60 will continue a move lower as long as its by 10:00a.m CT and it follows thru with new globbex lows. Use caution with this idea. This future is acting very resilent. The nasdaq opens at 1977.00-1979.50, makes a quick low at 1976.50 and blasts off to the 1994.00 price, breaching that daily pivot price of 1898.25 by 6 handles. Now look what's happening. It did retest its opoening range and saw a bounce to the 1983.50, which is its pivotal price, but it needed to take out the globex low of 1974.50 to further erode. This future didn't!! Now watch the 1983.50 price once again. Overall these futures are in need of more downside. The bond opened substainily higher this morning at 132.27 regular session, 132.06 globex. It lead to a high of 133.01, followed with a low of 132.09, which held the globex open. They have since bounced to a retest of the regular session price of 132.27. New highs will test the 133.15 and a trend line price at 133.23. $$; September 22, 2010 at 10:55 AM
McFearless said...: ahab,

yeah I just don't know, but I do think China is somehow involved, I'm not sure this war will be all about combat, I keep hearing reports of china hacking into our electrical grid....as an example of what I mean.; September 22, 2010 at 10:58 AM
Leftback said...: Crude knows....

Keep an eye on Bucky. He was badly Dented last night.; September 22, 2010 at 10:58 AM
CV said...: "I would think it's almost a foregone conclusion that a huge war is going to happen within 5 years because of all this mess, that's the historical pattern with financial crisis like this"

---

Well isn't it re-assuring that we have the TELEPROMPTER IN CHIEF in a dual role as the COMMANDER IN CHIEF...

My guess is we do the French thing and become surrender monkeys... pass the cheese please...; September 22, 2010 at 11:00 AM
McFearless said...: LB,

I see Jeter put his penthouse up for sale in NYC, that'd go well with your new beamer....I think he wants 15 or 20 million....lol.

alan jackson from country music listed his ranch in TN recently for 38 million, sits on 140 acres, I looked at the property, I don't even want to know what the monthly maintenance would run, it has to be insane.; September 22, 2010 at 11:00 AM
CV said...: "never stopped until a high of 1139.70, just missing that all important upsdie # price of 1140.10"

Don't be a dick for the tick (as Andy T would say)...; September 22, 2010 at 11:02 AM
Leftback said...: One of AT's classic lines.; September 22, 2010 at 11:08 AM
karen said...: topstep recap: http://www.twitlonger.com/show/65f0i4; September 22, 2010 at 11:10 AM
Anonymous said...: and regarding war-

I'm not sure Europe would get involved in another major war-

I think they would roll over first

gotta roll out- all have a good day; September 22, 2010 at 11:13 AM
CV said...: @Mcf

Q: What's an "acre"

A: It's when your tooth hurts!; September 22, 2010 at 11:14 AM
Leftback said...: Wish I had added to my shorts on that bounce....

K, my shorts are getting larger as you approach 1133 and ecstasy.; September 22, 2010 at 11:16 AM
CV said...: Q: What time do Asians visit the dentist?

A: 2:30 (tooth-hurty); September 22, 2010 at 11:17 AM
McFearless said...: I'm still laughing about DL's stopless post yesterday, that was some funny shet.; September 22, 2010 at 11:17 AM
Leftback said...: Anyone think we get a big sell-off this week?
Or is this all there is?

You know LB wants to see Karen in ecstasy.; September 22, 2010 at 11:19 AM
karen said...: I still don't get DL's post.. really.. that or i don't think it is funny.; September 22, 2010 at 11:20 AM
CV said...: Not sure if we get THE BIG ONE...

I'd like to at least see something that pisses off both bulls & bears...

That's kind of the theme I'm expecting...; September 22, 2010 at 11:21 AM
karen said...: now i want 1127..; September 22, 2010 at 11:22 AM
CV said...: I wouldn't mind seeing a test of 1110...; September 22, 2010 at 11:22 AM
McFearless said...: hard to say lefty, I think it could be just as probable that we go sideways, I'm sitting on these new shorts for now though, those 1170's targets are top of mind though; September 22, 2010 at 11:23 AM
CV said...: If the market is, in fact going to go higher, a WEEKLY test of 1110 would not seem like too much to ask for...; September 22, 2010 at 11:23 AM
Mr Market said...: I'd like to at least see something that pisses off both bulls & bears...

Now yer talkin'...; September 22, 2010 at 11:23 AM
karen said...: CV.. you didn't comment on JNK! look now..; September 22, 2010 at 11:24 AM
McFearless said...: I thought this was good from Neely's site:

Given the similarity of price and time exhibited by each leg of a symmetrical, is that pattern more likely to drift sideways rather than trend up or down?
Answer:
From personal experience, the reverse is more common. Symmetricals are so time-consuming (relatively speaking) that it is nearly impossible for a market to hesitate long enough to complete the entire pattern during one, sideways period. As a result, Symmetricals tend to have a clear, positive or negative drift. The one's I've seen have exhibited a decided upward or downward bias, which makes them difficult to identify, at least initially. Due to their "trendy" nature, they can be difficult to identify early in their development. But, after a Symmetrical passes its halfway point, the extreme price/time similarities that exist between all "same direction" waves makes it difficult to label any other way.; September 22, 2010 at 11:24 AM
McFearless said...: I'd love to see someone attempt a wave count on JNK, what a nightmare, i tried, and I failed.; September 22, 2010 at 11:25 AM
karen said...: there is an $spx gap at 1110..; September 22, 2010 at 11:26 AM
McFearless said...: I wish just one of you were in my office right now, I've been doing my annual compliance training since early this morning, you'd be amazed at some of this stuff, and the things advisors do that get them in trouble.; September 22, 2010 at 11:27 AM
Leftback said...: 1133, Karen....

Karen... ???; September 22, 2010 at 11:27 AM
72bat said...: @ zerohedge, albert edwards piece
themosmitsos comment
on Wed, 09/22/2010 - 01:14 #596643

WW III. Bring it. We NEED it. Whole planet is full of worthless people that feel they're entitled to all kinds of things, as a basic matter of fact. Everyone's special. War. Bring it.; September 22, 2010 at 11:27 AM
CV said...: Hoping for that 2nd crow on JNK...; September 22, 2010 at 11:28 AM
karen said...: 1110 is the 20 ema
My top is the 50.. just sayin..; September 22, 2010 at 11:29 AM
McFearless said...: today is considered Gann day. I didn't know that.; September 22, 2010 at 11:29 AM
McFearless said...: very basic of course but TLT is back above the 50 day on this move....; September 22, 2010 at 11:30 AM
Leftback said...: "1110 is the 20 ema
My top is the 50.. just sayin.."

Yes, Karen, I want your top.... in a trading sense, of course...; September 22, 2010 at 11:32 AM
McFearless said...: years to reach 50 million users:

Radio: 38
TV: 13
Internet: 4
iPod: 3

it took facebook less than 9 months to reach 100 million users and iPhone applications took 9 months to have 1 billion users.

interesting.; September 22, 2010 at 11:32 AM
karen said...: Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said U.S. banks will be able to adapt to tougher international safeguards by tapping future profits, rather than curtailing lending and choking off the economic recovery.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abECr0AYaZJ4; September 22, 2010 at 11:32 AM
karen said...: bat.. he says some really bad stuff.. i follow him on twitter and have almost unfollowed him..; September 22, 2010 at 11:34 AM
CV said...: @McF

Those are some interesting comments from Neely...

It pretty much goes along with a general philosophy of mine... Which is...

It was RIDICULOUS to ever think that banks would ever get bailed out, and then, seeing the "error of their ways", would return themselves to an AUSTERE and INCREMENTAL approach to anything...

It's in their very nature to go one way or another NOT SIDEWAYS...

So they'll always take 1000% risk, (and, of course, in the process - engineer 1000% failure)...

But I suppose one has to SEE this type of behavior playing itself out in real life to believe it...

That is what we are seeing...; September 22, 2010 at 11:36 AM
Leftback said...: Tight stops now, just in case Karen doesn't become ecstatic.
It was close there, for a second.... I know she's ready....; September 22, 2010 at 11:37 AM
CV said...: Radio: 38
TV: 13
Internet: 4
iPod: 3

it took facebook less than 9 months to reach 100 million users and iPhone applications took 9 months to have 1 billion users

KANYE WEST... 1 day - lol; September 22, 2010 at 11:37 AM
McFearless said...: CV,

I think Neely might be even smarter than Prechter, dude is on another level. I told Andy the other night I'm a little upset with myself I waited so long to get his book. I wouldn't suggest to anyone getting into waves to only look at orthodox method now that I know this.; September 22, 2010 at 11:37 AM
AmenRa said...: Gold got to close to 1300. Had to get knocked down. But not for long.; September 22, 2010 at 11:37 AM
karen said...: guess i should pick a dto target and put a limit sell up for a few k.. sighing.. son stomping around on stone floors with interview shoes on (ferragamo, cv).. it about to drive me out of my mind. EXCEPT WOW he looks so handsome.. just had me check his tie.. Hugo Boss suit.. geeze.. The other son may now have pneumonia.. : (; September 22, 2010 at 11:39 AM
McFearless said...: we still can't really see sellers coming in....I don't like this, may need to close up these shorts....still holding at the moment but I'm going to put a limit now at break-even.; September 22, 2010 at 11:39 AM
McFearless said...: good for him, he's going to look sharp for that interview.; September 22, 2010 at 11:40 AM
I-Man said...: deja vu... will this be the day we get our 5 down?; September 22, 2010 at 11:47 AM
McFearless said...: sorry if someone already linked this:

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=167203

"In a credit-driven monetary system, you can only get "inflation" (in the truest sense, where it flows through to wages and prices, thereby debasing - that is, helping - people pay down indebtedness) if there is credit expansion.

But when the limit of credit expansion is reached (which is known - when "QE" by whatever name is initiated, you've reached that point, as you are then artificially trying to create credit expansion that you are unable to stimulate otherwise) further machinations of this sort do nothing other than bankrupt the population."; September 22, 2010 at 11:47 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Ben,

I suppose it has to be asked....have the office secretaries come by for the "group spanking"?

...Just seemed the most inappropriate thing I could ask....:); September 22, 2010 at 11:47 AM
CV said...: @karen (11:29)

Not only does that GAP at 1110 show up in daily charts, it shows up in the WEEKLY as well...

I'm sure it'll NEVER get closed... EVER...

Next stop... DOW 36,000, right?; September 22, 2010 at 11:48 AM
I-Man said...: Gann Day...

Who Knew?

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125354476913027971.html; September 22, 2010 at 11:49 AM
McFearless said...: Bruce,

ha, nah, we keep it clean around here, god forbid a regulator would show up in the middle f that, it'd probably end up on my U-4 somehow.; September 22, 2010 at 11:50 AM
CV said...: @Bruce

BEN's office...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28W3d3brIf0; September 22, 2010 at 11:51 AM
Leftback said...: Crude is melting away, and even gold softer now.
USTs are still well bid.; September 22, 2010 at 11:51 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

MUST...PROTECT...1130...OR...HELLO...KATHERINE!!!; September 22, 2010 at 11:52 AM
McFearless said...: this thing needs to break 1130 already

COME ON MAN!; September 22, 2010 at 11:52 AM
Leftback said...: Never mind Katherine... Karen promised to be in ecstasy.....
LB is up for that. So to speak...; September 22, 2010 at 11:56 AM
McFearless said...: CV,

You'll see it now on the site but I'm going to pass on your trade offer as I've accepted a different one.

thanks for the offer though, I'm caught up on JC only getting 8 touches last week. lot of season left of course.; September 22, 2010 at 12:01 PM
Nic said...: Do you need a HUGH HENDRY fix? Here ya go:
http://bit.ly/ddfpM2; September 22, 2010 at 12:03 PM
Leftback said...: These little failed rallies are saying big sell-off day.; September 22, 2010 at 12:05 PM
CV said...: @McF

That's fine...

I've got two guys on a few of my teams...

JAMAAL CHARLES & BEANIE WELLS

That, of course, aren't producing as much as I'd like... But you have to be patient...

Wells hasn't even suited up yet (week 1 & 2)...

And Charles? Actually, he's put out the same numbers as Thomas Jones (on half the attempts)...

The Chiefs probably just want to see what they've got (in Jones)...

Both players are young and will have fresh legs in the 2nd half of the season...

Crunch time...; September 22, 2010 at 12:06 PM
Johnny Retail said...: Brian?
Brian??
BRIAN???

Click.; September 22, 2010 at 12:06 PM
CV said...: For now I have to make do...; September 22, 2010 at 12:06 PM
Jennifer said...: Herb Greenberg is talking about that etf issue that Nic's weekend article discussed. Interestingly, Kid Dynamite had a long post on kind of the same issue...it seemed like Herb was almost reading some of it on the air. Back to diamond quest.; September 22, 2010 at 12:08 PM
McFearless said...: C,
It was a tough choice, I thought on it a lot last night....I like Charles a lot even though a lot of people aren't too big on him, at any given time with his speed he could really break a long one, I just think for right now the trade I made was the best I could do, we'll see if it works out that way.; September 22, 2010 at 12:11 PM
Leftback said...: TLT carving a right shoulder, LQD closing in on double top.
Last chance saloon for bond sellers this week, methinks....; September 22, 2010 at 12:11 PM
McFearless said...: thanks for the HH link Nic.; September 22, 2010 at 12:13 PM
CV said...: @jennifer

I hope you find that thing...

Time to pray to St. Anthony!; September 22, 2010 at 12:14 PM
CV said...: "Tony, Tony, turn around. Something's lost and must be found."; September 22, 2010 at 12:16 PM
karen said...: thanks NIC! even better!; September 22, 2010 at 12:18 PM
karen said...: oh no.. did Jennifer loose a diamond? I missed that story..; September 22, 2010 at 12:19 PM
CV said...: @Nic

That's what I was looking for yesterday (full version)... but you found it...

See? St. Anthony works!; September 22, 2010 at 12:19 PM
karen said...: fxa just went flat.. uup up..; September 22, 2010 at 12:19 PM
CV said...: @karen

That's exactly how she lost it...

It got "loose"; September 22, 2010 at 12:23 PM
CV said...: check the car Jennifer...; September 22, 2010 at 12:24 PM
karen said...: a site for CV: ComingAnarchy.com; September 22, 2010 at 12:26 PM
Leftback said...: Anyone piling on here with Mister Shorty's team?; September 22, 2010 at 12:31 PM
karen said...: deepfoo

Netflix, there is no price apparently at which people won't buy the stock. It is my official canary in the coal mine for speculation.; September 22, 2010 at 12:31 PM
karen said...: haha.. NFLX apparently had over 21% short.. volume still not reflecting mass covering..; September 22, 2010 at 12:35 PM
Nic said...: Remember the Tony Robbins warning a month ago to get out of the market?:
http://stock.ly/3pbb5p; September 22, 2010 at 12:36 PM
I-Man said...: I'm sure Paul loves that article... pfft.; September 22, 2010 at 12:43 PM
Leftback said...: Crude still rolling over, guys.; September 22, 2010 at 12:48 PM
karen said...: looking at spy daily chart with volume.. looks like yesterday was a distribution day as were two days last week.

oops.. thot that posted earlier.. was meeting with a waterproofing contractor..; September 22, 2010 at 12:56 PM
Leftback said...: Crime. These are some of the nicer middle class sections of Brooklyn.

Crime in NYC; September 22, 2010 at 12:56 PM
karen said...: zh-In other words, following retail's departure, now hedge funds themselves are starting to boycott the market until some semblance of normality returns. We hope the SEC, and the other idiot regulators realize this before their inactivity chases everyone except a few computers and primary dealers out of the market.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/harvest-returns-25-capital-investors-cities-record-stock-correlations-reason-withdrawing-mar; September 22, 2010 at 1:06 PM
karen said...: mrtopstep

#futures 1128 last we still think down 1121-1123
half a minute ago via web; September 22, 2010 at 1:09 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

last night you suggested checking the Q's, AMZN, etc. candles.

that was a good eye, naz is down much more today so far.; September 22, 2010 at 1:10 PM
karen said...: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a.xAMIoVV8og

Rahm Emanuel, President Barack Obama’s chief of staff, is likely to leave the White House before the November congressional elections to run for mayor of Chicago, people familiar with the matter said; September 22, 2010 at 1:13 PM
spoonman said...: Dear F*ckers,
Any time you're ready to jump, I'm ready to catch you...

--Spoonman; September 22, 2010 at 1:13 PM
karen said...: Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010, 12:13 pm
The Securities Exchange Commission Monday charged a Minneapolis attorney and two San Francisco promoters with fraud after they failed to disclose the financial collapse of a real estate lending fund to relevant investors.
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/09/22/sec-charges-4-with-fraud-after-failing-to-disclose-real-estate-investment-fund-collapse; September 22, 2010 at 1:15 PM
McFearless said...: rut is looking pretty good now on the bearish side, I still prefer the small cap shorts over large caps for now due to the sector rotation we keep seeing but this time around I did both.; September 22, 2010 at 1:17 PM
McFearless said...: now I'm at the part where I have to look at a picture and say if it is "secure" or not secure

the first picture is of a client tax return sitting on top of an unlocked file cabinet in the lobby of an office

um....secure?; September 22, 2010 at 1:21 PM
karen said...: Eisner on Obama's inexperienced team:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1yrawLd2tE; September 22, 2010 at 1:21 PM
Leftback said...: McF

We are long some divvys which are green (!) and short the RUT.
An awesome day, really.; September 22, 2010 at 1:24 PM
Leftback said...: Have to run for a while. Back for the close.; September 22, 2010 at 1:25 PM
McFearless said...: nice job leftback, the RUT short is G$$$$ today; September 22, 2010 at 1:25 PM
karen said...: http://chart.ly/vscucqm

Has the rise of index-linked investing, in part via ETFs, hopelessly distorted the capital markets?; September 22, 2010 at 1:27 PM
McFearless said...: I'll watch the video but I don't think that they have, over the years it would seem that with each new financial innovation people will claim that it's hurting the markets

this was true for options, futures, etc.; September 22, 2010 at 1:31 PM
McFearless said...: I still think the dollar move off the recent highs is corrective, not impulsive, but today may have only finished up wave 3 of C rather than C being finished.; September 22, 2010 at 1:36 PM

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 312 Newer› Newest»

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

TRADERS ANONYMOUS

Morning Audibles 9.22.10

312 comments:

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

About this Blog

Blog Archive

Search This Blog

AT's Wave Symbology