Sunday Evening Post & Monday Morning Audibles

Hello Capitalists,

The market update component will be a little late tonight and here's the "excuse:" My wife and I were the only people in America that had not been viewers of Mad Men on AMC. This last week we went on a Mad Men "bender" catching up on the first three seasons. The show is fantastic, but the side affect is that I am becoming Don Draper. For the uninitiated, this means I've taken up hard liquor, chain smoking, and womanizing, none of which is good for producing technical commentary on markets.

So, if the reports suck and are late, now you know why....


Gold Report 1 Aug 2010


And, here are some brief thoughts on the S&P futures and DXY.

I'm longer the DXY now at 40% of my Maximum long position. I remain just 20% short of a Maximum short position on the S&P 500. I won't add on to the S&P trade until we see another leg higher. If we never see that next wave up, then I'll just have to cry in my martini...

Market Update 1 Aug 10

Nothing to add to Andy's charts except I'm sure most people caught the Greenspan interview on MEET THE PRESS... I rounded up all the comments around the internet on it, and they were all pretty much what you'd expect based on who was 'opining' on the subject...

So for giggles, I'll add my input on Greenspan here (which should pretty much cover all past & future interviews)...

230 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 230 of 230   Newer›   Newest»
CV said...

New normal...

- 2 handle on 10yy
- Dow 14,000

I-Man said...

I'll take 201 for you Karen...

karen said...

Where is Andy?! I just don't see what could possibly go wrong here:


Stocks Spike on Light Volume
Mon Aug 2 15:00:00 EDT 2010 | Briefing.com
Stocks head into the final hour on track to settle trade at their highest level in more than one month. That said, it should be noted that participation has been rather unimpressive in that only little more than 600 million shares have been traded, so far, on the NYSE. Such low volume can often lead to exaggerated moves among stocks, since each buy order carries more weight when there is a lower relative total share volume.

I-Man said...

One more rip higher, and I-Man is satisfied. Well pleased, actually.

Cold Steel said...

A big ramp is what could go wrong... LOL.

A BTE ADP or NFP number is what can go wrong,
b/c nobody is expecting it.

Just sayin'... I am here.

CV said...

Nobody would be expecting the market to SELL THE NEWS on a BTE NFP either now would they?

CV said...

Here comes that 1128.15 close that CV was talking about earlier...

CV said...

Probably it'll go up another 1% tomorrow too and get everyone and their donkey talking about a H&S pattern...

Then tank...

karen said...

1127.40 is 100 day ma and 1132.59 is upper BB..

CV said...

1128.15 was the close on 5/6

Leftback said...

It's important to see both sides, as a wise man once said.

LB isn't emotionally involved with Mr Market. He is what he is.

Selling the news would come AHEAD of the number, b/c it would be leaked. Then PPT engineers a relief rally on the news, that has been the pattern of late.

karen said...

well we now have another gap to close.. the one between friday's high and today open.. which was also the low.

Leftback said...

Commodities are rich, especially crude.

A pull back on Wednesday or Thursday would make sense.

Karen, I like your 1132.59. Your icon is splendid also...
For some reason my rooster doesn't fit. Probably your influence.

Ben Bernanke said...

I re-iterate that it is the DUAL MANDATE of the Fed to insure...

- full employment [for bankers]
- price stability [in stocks]

Leftback said...

Not to mention

- helicopter maintenance

Ben22 said...

1130's is a huge fail for the bulls if that's all it does, it needs to overtake the 5/18 candle and if it does it'll close that gap right above.

Leftback said...

Factory orders and pending homes @ 10am tomorrow.
One doubts that those will be "Gangbuster Numbers" (Dennis Kneale)

We are taking it off* here.

* Just the bond hedge, Ladies...

Beaker said...

@LB

Stop misquoting me...

CV said...

Alright...

See all you capitalists later...

CV

Leftback said...

May see a JOHNNY HALF HOUR before the data tomorrow and then a reverse off of 1130-1335.

If the data are BTE, we will probably have an ugly squeeze to 1150 or so. Can't really see that here, but you never know. BUCKY could probably be pushed down a little lower without too much difficulty.

Crude is setting up for a fall. A soft ADP and supply build might make for a fun half hour on Wednesday. LB has developed a taste for the quick and dirty, in and out on Wednesday mornings these days.

Bonds will probably snooze unless there is a sensational red hot number. Like Karen, but we mean the factory/housing data.

Leftback said...

CV should get one of these, but it would be BR not BP.

http://blowmebp.com/order/

Ben22 said...

I have to reverse what I said about hedge funds earlier, I'm reading that overall they had the worst q2 in a decade, they have to perform, unlike mutual funds.

if we can't close below some of the key support levels that have been established they will come in and buy into year end.

Volume sucked today, but it was no worse than it was last summer in the heart of this move up.

Leftback said...

LB will be back with proper Bond Reports later this week, but for now he has to run.

Suffice to say:

RISK ON, baby. MOMO Monday.
JNK > LQD > AGG > TLT.
Curve steeper by about 5 bps.
We took off our hedge.

10 am Factory Data and Pending Homes.

Green Shoots or Clean Chutes, Patriots?

One Day at a Time, folks.

Leftback said...

FINALLY, Krugmeister is catching on.

The thing is, he is influential, so it matters. It is just a shame that he isn't very bright and as a Princeton economist and NYT writer really has no common touch.

Manny, Bruce and Karen have been saying all this for a year:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/02/opinion/02krugman.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=general

The New Normal. The Elite Don't Care. Brilliant, Paul....

Leftback said...

GS marketing to clients structured products based on selling volatility.

Short September volatility? From here..?
LMDO...

(Laughing My Donkey Off...)

Mannwich said...

No, they don't, lb. The "plan" is to keep the "bread & circuses" spigots on at just the right levels to keep the Sheeple fat & medicated (although not necessarily "happy") enough while the dismantling of Main Street and the middle class continues full throttle. They probably believe (and rightfully so) that this will keep the "barbarians" behind the gate for a long enough period before the mantra of "shared sacrifice" (amongst us, not them) is pushed down our throats.

Leftback said...

Tool Time™. This guy is a complete tool:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/it’s-time-revisit-tbt

I have to say this ZH poster has incredible timing, he always recommends what is about to go in the crapper.... in addition, he is another Death of Treasuries Tool. You know how LB feels about this.

Holding TBT is going to be a loser except during massive moves of months duration. It is a day trading vehicle like the rest, been there, lost money....

ben22 said...

structured products are pretty popular now with retail fa's and any wire house offers structured products now for retail investors, if you have enough AUM you can even request your own structured notes.

Johnny Retail said...

By the time I hear about it, it's a STALE TRADE.

Right?

McFearless said...

no John, you want to buy what the "smart money" buys and they do structured products. If it is good enough for them it should be good enough for you, and don't mind that giant rip I get to take....you'll get some of it back at the BBQ's.

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.