TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 8.5.10

Morning Audibles 8.5.10 - It's Just a Shot Away

Oh, a storm is threat'ning

My very life today

If I don't get some shelter

Oh yeah, I'm gonna fade away

War, children, it's just a shot away

It's just a shot away

War, children, it's just a shot away

It's just a shot away

Ooh, see the fire is sweepin'

Our very street today

Burns like a red coal carpet

Mad bull lost its way

Here are a few other occasions, in 2010, that the MAD BULL lost its way - (notice the blue circle & associated low volume days - contrast that with the red circles/huge volume)...

And what does that mean for the 10yy? Look where the yield was during previous low volume equity melt-ups... Triple bottom at present... Is there such a thing?

285 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 285 Newer› Newest»

Anonymous said...: wunsacon- previous thread-

quite dramatic there my friend- currency collapse?

BOE queezing all along- the pound still hanging in there-

maybe QE is the new Alchemy- the dream everyone has been hoping for for centuries-

easy prosperity- who could have known how awesome it would be; August 5, 2010 at 7:47 AM
CV said...: @ahab

Yeah... If you're playing a game of MONOPOLY, and you're out of cash... And the other guy has all the properties on the board...

Theoretically... You could keep playing forever and ever, and keep landing on BOARDWALK with 5 hotels on it and just keep OWING the other guy more and more money...

Of course then, the could just keep building more and more hotels with that money you owe him...

Free Parking & Jail are your only chances...; August 5, 2010 at 7:55 AM
Anonymous said...: CV-

no doubt-

and I don't know about anyone else- but I can't wait for President Sarah Palin-

I wonder if Chris Matthews would throw himself off a tall building (one could only hope) and Keith Olbermann breaks out his inner assassin and tries to take her out with his Daisy rifle-

and then we will have the dunderheads like Sean Hannity marching in lockstep behind Commander in Chief Palin- no war too ridiculous or unnecessary- sucking the coffers dry- with nary a peep then about reckless spending on foreign campaigns-

man- that just sounds like nirvana to me; August 5, 2010 at 8:09 AM
CV said...: @ahab

All I hope is that the NFL keeps going...

CV needs his bread & circuses too...; August 5, 2010 at 8:28 AM
72bat said...: @ ahab -
as karen would say, "ahab, stop it, you're scaring me."; August 5, 2010 at 8:30 AM
McFearless said...: ooh, now that you are all so enlightened on employment this morning...quick, place your bets on that claims number!

you know, it's "news" that the job market sucks; August 5, 2010 at 8:32 AM
72bat said...: initial claims
actual expected prior
479K 455K 460K; August 5, 2010 at 8:33 AM
Anonymous said...: speaking of the NFL-

what is your take on Martz going to Chicago? It appears that Lovie Smith will only be a figure head of sorts- also-

the Skins w/ McNabb may be contenders; August 5, 2010 at 8:33 AM
McFearless said...: if we open with a decent dip this morning I may buy that again on the long side S&P.; August 5, 2010 at 8:37 AM
McFearless said...: if the Skinds w/McNabb might be contenders (no mention that the best player on D can't pass his physical?)

then my money is on the bengals to win the super bowl

also, in case people haven't heard it, "she plays for the bengals" is the new "butterface"

good uniform....bad helmet.; August 5, 2010 at 8:39 AM
Anonymous said...: 72bat-

I say bring it on- lets make it all as ridiculous as it can be-

I have no illusions that it should be anything less-

I would love it to see it- just to see what the reactions will be from the Literati- all their twisted and contorted faces trying make sense of the the rejection of all their enlightened ideals by the dregs of society; August 5, 2010 at 8:42 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

no doubt on Haynesworth- all I hear about on sports radio; August 5, 2010 at 8:47 AM
McFearless said...: I mentioned this Nanex study yesterday, BR has a post on it today:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/quote-stuffing-and-strange-sequences/; August 5, 2010 at 8:48 AM
McFearless said...: ahab,

he looks to me like he put on some muscle in the offseason, not fat, he's messing around it would seem, it's not a tough test he's failing, not a good sign this early in the season.; August 5, 2010 at 8:49 AM
CV said...: @ahab

Martz in Chicago:

Well if someone can do an offense that can make friggin' John Kitna throw for 4,000 yards, Cutler ought to put up better numbers than last year...

Probably at the expense of having all his internal organs removed... The ringing in his ears may not stop for the next 5 years...; August 5, 2010 at 8:54 AM
CV said...: Haynesworth = FAT/LAZY/OVERPAID

It seems he has found the PERFECT home in our Nations Capitol...; August 5, 2010 at 8:55 AM
CV said...: The only difference is, at least the OTHER FAT/LAZY/OVERPAID things (like banks), can pass stress tests...

I nominate "Shanahan" for Treasury Secretary!; August 5, 2010 at 8:57 AM
72bat said...: ahab -
the dawning of a new "know-nothing" party; August 5, 2010 at 8:57 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Holy Tomato Can in the Road to Kick Batman...

479k...

Well I get to vote today, anyway.; August 5, 2010 at 8:57 AM
CV said...: @McF

Ritzy... Once again... is about a WEEK behind the game...

Hell - ZH had that up last Friday... and CV even used it for the WEEKEND thread...

See SATURDAY, JULY 31st, THREAD; August 5, 2010 at 8:59 AM
CV said...: @72bat

GOP Problem solving:

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_k_ICSkAB1hk/S7znQDli1bI/AAAAAAAAFgg/TXUR51D3Lsk/%5BUNSET%5D.jpg

In alternate years, just invert the image from left to right/right to left...

Or maybe I could just find one of those little spinny thing to put on my desk and save all the bother...; August 5, 2010 at 9:05 AM
CV said...: CV's EARLY PICKS (2010 NFL)

NFC
East - Cowboys
South - Saints
North - Packers
West - 49ers
WC - Vikings
WC - Panthers

AFC
East - Jets
South - Colts
North - Ravens
West - Chargers
WC - Texans
WC - Bengals or Patriots; August 5, 2010 at 9:11 AM
Anonymous said...: CV @ 8:55- now I understand- a perfect fit

b22- local sports radio hasn't been too kind to McNabb- many comments on his ability to choke however I think it was a decent move- they just may make the playoffs

72b- the people will reject those that "think" they know best-

and will tell them to go fellate themselves

gotta roll- all have a good day; August 5, 2010 at 9:12 AM
Larry Bothritz said...: Anyone know where I can rent one of these cars to drive to the Hamptons for some weekend dining?; August 5, 2010 at 9:15 AM
CV said...: @Larry

How about a loaner? (with a hatchback for easy access to the Grey Poupon))

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_L8BTRutV0uk/SRdS2LrNaII/AAAAAAAAJNQ/U0OcfxXfCWk/s400/Yugo+Car+Ad+1987.jpg; August 5, 2010 at 9:18 AM
CV said...: @Larry Comes with a chauffeur as well...

http://junkcarnation.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/yugo.jpg; August 5, 2010 at 9:20 AM
McFearless said...: ahab,
McNabb won't let any of that phase him, people were all over him in Philly every year. With Westbrook hurt so often and his less than talented pool of WR's up here I think the dude has had a good career, not to mention, he not a giant douche bag like so many sports starts are.

C,

well, you know, when you are a wall streeter that blogs you just don't have time for the breaking news like you do if you are blogger that talks about wall street.; August 5, 2010 at 9:24 AM
CV said...: Alright...

So we all know this dip this morning is just so as to get freshly minted BULLS into "core positions"...

Wouldn't want anyone who bought over 1120 to sell for quick profits now, would we?

So where do we bounce...

1116 is a candidate (50MA)

1118.59 would be a .009 pullback

But if it goes to 1116, then that might bring the next FIBO, actually, into play (around 1112.30)...

TOPSTEP, yesterday, in-between bouts of gargling marbles, mentioned 1112 & 1106-ish as outliers...

We'll see...

CV <3's outliers; August 5, 2010 at 9:26 AM
CV said...: @McF

He had an excuse... I think he was up in Nova Scotia to see the total eclipse of the sun...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=js8YE7uZFUY; August 5, 2010 at 9:28 AM
CV said...: More (9:26)

TRENDLINE support (off 1010) comes in around 1100...; August 5, 2010 at 9:29 AM
CV said...: oooh...

The first tick down on the cash wasn't even a GAP...; August 5, 2010 at 9:30 AM
CV said...: Wait... I take that back...; August 5, 2010 at 9:31 AM
Larry Bothritz said...: Although I'm traveling (like a Wilbury) at the moment, I'll check on that car, will need USB port to keep in touch with my followers ;); August 5, 2010 at 9:32 AM
72bat said...: continuing claims
Actual Expected Prior
4537K 4530K 4571K; August 5, 2010 at 9:34 AM
karen said...: morning! i love it when you fellows talk football.. i can skip those and catch-up faster : ) another great audible CV.. i thot I cleared up that triple bottom thing, tho, last night..; August 5, 2010 at 9:34 AM
CV said...: @Amen

5 reddies... Count 'em up...; August 5, 2010 at 9:35 AM
CV said...: @karen

as is the case ofter... You were my inspiration...; August 5, 2010 at 9:36 AM
Leftback said...: 479k claims... he he he good day to be overnight short....
That's a lot less people buying GREY POUPON.; August 5, 2010 at 9:39 AM
CV said...: Lower low from yesterday (in the books)...

Now - Do you want to STEP UP and take out the lows from the last 3 days of candles...

Come on - I KNOW you do!; August 5, 2010 at 9:43 AM
karen said...: more on that buffet business i posted yesterday:

http://247wallst.com/2010/08/04/buffett-options-laws-of-unintended-consequences-brk-a-brk-b/

it's not he that was so smart but the people working for him.; August 5, 2010 at 9:45 AM
Andrew Rose Suckin said...: Look, don't bust on me. I got laid for buying that apartment.
The bitch begged me - it was the frickin SUB-ZERO, ya know!

Anyway, I make a lot telling lies on TV.; August 5, 2010 at 9:45 AM
CV said...: @Barry Ritholtz

BR... My gift to you...

http://www.wpr.org/news/images/OuttaMustard.JPG; August 5, 2010 at 9:45 AM
CV said...: How about a pickled gherkin instead?; August 5, 2010 at 9:46 AM
karen said...: CV.. i too was noting the lower low.. but let's be honest.. this is just a correction/consolidation.. 1220-50 in sight! unless you put more weight on spy.. then the turnaround could be here if tomorrow's high isn't breached : ); August 5, 2010 at 9:50 AM
CV said...: Looks like I picked a bad day to quit amphetamines...

NEW YORK — Crude futures dropped as a rise in U.S. jobless claims raised concerns about the state of the economy of the world's biggest oil consumer.

Light, sweet crude for September delivery traded 61 cents, or 0.7%, lower at $81.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded 74 cents, or 0.9%, lower at $81.46 a barrel.

View Full Image

Associated Press
Oil prices slipped below $82 a barrel Thursday, pausing from a rally that lifted the commodity to a three-month high this week.

Declining prices reflected an interruption to a stream of economic indicators pointing to a steady recovery that had propelled crude futures as high as $82.97 a barrel early Wednesday. The Labor Department reported an increase of 19,000 new jobless claims last week, defying economists' average expectations for a decline of 2,000, and reminding investors that U.S. unemployment has remained stubbornly high despite months of growth.

The weekly claims figures are the last data point to come before Friday's July unemployment figures, one of the most closely watched economic indicators, are released.

"Given the unexpected jump of 19,000 claims ... that doesn't suggest that things are hunky dory in the labor market," said Gene McGillian, an analyst with Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn. "The bulls were looking for a little further confirmation, and they didn't get it."; August 5, 2010 at 9:51 AM
CV said...: @karen

I'll go as high as 1186 (which I'd posted last week BTW)...

I'm not on board with 1220... yet...

I still think this pullback will be more than what we've seen thus far this morning...

I'm going to lean on the TOPSTEP numbers 1106-1112...

Right in the middle of that is 1110 (which CV ALSO said needed to be tested before anything higher than 1131 should be attempted...

Just so we're clear :-); August 5, 2010 at 9:54 AM
karen said...: gotta read this TBP post and comments:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/quote-stuffing-and-strange-sequences/; August 5, 2010 at 9:57 AM
wunsacon said...: >> currency collapse?

Ahab,

Here's what I'm thinking...

- Wait until Chinese citizens discover they can't eat their empty condos and decide to start purchasing some other store of value. Similarly, wait until other countries "reject the dollar" -- which Ron Paul has warned about.

- The value of the dollar derives from the fact that it's the only commodity you can use to pay your taxes...but the current federal government isn't insisting we reset taxes on the rich back to the pre-Bush years.

- The current federal government is bailing out every *inefficient* business (perhaps because they're the ones that are failing) and now the overpaid state workers. This $26B is probably a "downpayment" on what's coming. Giving purchasing power to non-value-creating organizations helps those employees bid for necessities (continuing "normal" demand) while placing burdens on the people who produce the necessities (increasing supply constraints). I suppose productivity gains can overcome the sloth. But, not so much in so little time.

...

Maybe the dollar does well compared to other fiat currencies. Mish might say "See? I was right". Well, yes, compared to other fiats and when you look at total credit. But, compared to food and energy? Those are *real* stores of value, because you can't exist without them.

I see GCC and DBA gapped up a couple of times. Unfortunately, I should probably open a commodities account and buy the long-dated futures, because these retail ETF's could perhaps be capturing a pittance of the move. (Haven't checked.); August 5, 2010 at 9:59 AM
CV said...: @karen (9:57)

Please don't make me read the comments... Here - let me guess...

BR:These are the type of HFT prints that one sees in a typical recovery

MEH: "typical recovery" www.clusty.com; TYPICAL RECOVERY;

FRANKLIN411: Well, in the NEW DEAL era, this type of quote stuffing was handled perfectly by massive amounts of Keynesian stimulus

CURMUDGEON: grumble, grumble, grumble, grumble

VENNDATA: It's all George Bush's fault

DEDUDE: x2

AHAB:Don't you two have anything less moronic to jabber about than party politics?

THOR: Can't we all just get along? BR is trying to run a blog here & I'm doing my best to police it...; August 5, 2010 at 10:06 AM
karen said...: CV, Laughing hysterically thru my tears this morning!! This thread was different.. promise!; August 5, 2010 at 10:08 AM
McFearless said...: "Wait until Chinese citizens discover they can't eat their empty condos and decide to start purchasing some other store of value. Similarly, wait until other countries "reject the dollar" -- which Ron Paul has warned about"

the majority of US currency is held outside of the country as a store of value, these statements also are the exact opposite of what has historically occured during deflationary collapse. A word to the wise from someone that has traded DBA...it's a POS, you could be right about all this and have the right trade and won't see any upside in there.; August 5, 2010 at 10:09 AM
CV said...: @wunsacon

The problem with your theory is that most DEBT, at the moment, happens to be denominated in dollars...

So until all the debt holders get together and decide that they'll accept puka shells as redemption for that (or eradicate the debt altogether)...

It's bucky baby...; August 5, 2010 at 10:09 AM
McFearless said...: not to mention, wouldn't you be buying the DBA in dollars?; August 5, 2010 at 10:09 AM
McFearless said...: guys, I went long again the dip this morning....I have to come clean.; August 5, 2010 at 10:10 AM
wunsacon said...: >> man- that just sounds like nirvana to me

CV, enjoying the prospect of doom, eh? ;-)

Gimme Shelter -- my favorite Stones song, in part because of the lyrics...

Another good doomer song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5BVSRMblBc; August 5, 2010 at 10:11 AM
CV said...: CV is going to go out on a limb here and say we see another WHOOSH down on SPX here any minute...

I've got 1112 in my sights; August 5, 2010 at 10:12 AM
CV said...: @wunsacon

I'm just noodling on the idea that the

BABY BOOMERS

May end up doing a Marc Faber and be the

BABY DOOM & GLOOMERS; August 5, 2010 at 10:13 AM
Bob Pisani said...: But that's bullish for equities; August 5, 2010 at 10:14 AM
Leftback said...: I have said from the first that the I-Pad was an I-Phone for grown ups with fading eyesight...

Japanese Seniors Love the I=Pad; August 5, 2010 at 10:16 AM
McFearless said...: There is a lot of buzz all over the web right now about commodoties, I have to say it's a head scratcher to me how many people are still worried about inflation....somewhere down the line, of course. We are in deflation, it's a fact, and this despite all the "money printing" As far as inflation down the line.....since nobody wants to hear what inflation really is (expansion of money supply and credit) and would rather focus on price, perhaps the price of silver in the late 70's early 80's compared to today may give some of those planning "a few years out"....some pause.

probably not though, since that was likely "manipulated"; August 5, 2010 at 10:17 AM
Mannwich said...: QE2 coming.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/08/auerback-the-real-reason-banks-arent-lending.html; August 5, 2010 at 10:18 AM
Leftback said...: Really tempted to add to the short here.

BLS could print some ugliness in terms of fewer hours worked and a 9.8 or 9.9% unemployment rate... and even if they don't, Mr Market may want to get ready for it.... before he packs the GREY POUPON and some blow, and heads to the HAMPTONS tomorrow with Svetlana and Nadia.; August 5, 2010 at 10:21 AM
Leftback said...: No Jobs, No Credit-Worthy Borrowers.... No Inflation.... LOL.

This class is pretty easy, isn't it?
REAL WORLD ECONOMICS 101.; August 5, 2010 at 10:23 AM
CV said...: @McF

I think you have to be careful when you make a broadly brushed statement like "there's NO INFLATION"...

There IS inflation... It just doesn't show up in economic reporting...

- Your dollar buys less (than it did in 1913)
- The price of gasoline is NOT going down
- The cost to heat & air condition your house is going up (while your wage stays the same)
- Your water bill is more expensive
- A bag of DORITOS is more expensive (and there are less Doritos in the bag)... More AIR though
- Movie tickets cost more
- Your cable & phone bills are going up
- Fresh produce costs more
- Alcohol & Cigarettes not only cost more, but are TAXED at a higher rate because the states are broke
- Your property taxes (& insurance) are higher

But if you can avoid eating, drinking, being entertained, or partying... I guess you don't have to worry about inflation...

There's always your local CONVENT or MONASTARY...; August 5, 2010 at 10:25 AM
Mannwich said...: Would seem so, lb, but delusions of the inflationistas die hard.; August 5, 2010 at 10:25 AM
Mannwich said...: Asset inflation, yes, therefore that doesn't "count" to the Fed. In fact, the more asset inflation, the better. The Fed just doesn't increased worker bee salaries. Now THAT would be "real" inflation.; August 5, 2010 at 10:26 AM
CV said...: @LB

Thursday is Friday...

I'm counting on the move being over by today (or no later, tomorrow AM)...

The blow is being packed up as we speak... Ukranian hookers await...; August 5, 2010 at 10:27 AM
Mannwich said...: My property taxes have decreased by a few hundred bucks this year-FYI.; August 5, 2010 at 10:27 AM
CV said...: @Mannwich

NOT MINE... I doubt karens have either...; August 5, 2010 at 10:29 AM
karen said...: assessed value went down ~6k for the first time ever.. haven't received actual bill yet so i don't know if they raised the rate and added fees to make up the difference!; August 5, 2010 at 10:34 AM
karen said...: how in the hell is this supposed to happen?

The New York Federal Reserve Bank may require mortgage lenders to repurchase loans from within portfolios of securitizations.

The assets are located in the Maiden Lane (ML) portfolios, created to buy troubled assets including residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) from Bear Stearns and American International Group (AIG) as part of the government's bailout of financial firms.

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/08/05/ny-fed-looks-to-require-lenders-to-take-back-bad-mortgages; August 5, 2010 at 10:38 AM
CV said...: I think my point is...

Notwithstanding what the bills or assessed valuations were for 2010...

I think it's safe to assume that property taxes will not follow the same descending glide pattern than HOME VALUES will...

In of itself, that is INFLATION because you'd be paying more TAXES per value of property of what you own than you did in decades past...; August 5, 2010 at 10:39 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: My taxes went up..it is the way of the world.

I don't think people realize yet how much of a difference higher taxes are going to make next year. If you have been a small businessman all your life, you know instinctively what is about to happen.; August 5, 2010 at 10:39 AM
karen said...: Telling it like it is:

Here is the only guide you need to understanding any and all bailouts:

Bailout of X (housing, Iceland, Greece, AIG, Harry Potter Theme Park, the ibogaine industry, etc.) is always a bailout of banks. The bailout of X is simply shorthand for the taxpayer bailing out the banks which are insolvent due to their overleveraged, risky lending. The bailout of X (let's say housing) is simply the PR facade, the socially appealing and politically correct pretense to shovel billions of dollars into the banking cartel to save it from the consequences of its faulty risk models, fraud, collusion, embezzlement, misrepresentation and influence-peddling.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug10/bailouts-housing-banking08-10.html; August 5, 2010 at 10:40 AM
karen said...: BreakingNews - Average rates for fixed mortgages fall to 4.49 percent, lowest level on record

Me - 3.5 will be the new normal one day..; August 5, 2010 at 10:41 AM
CV said...: @karen (10:38)

I agree "How the hell is that supposed to happen"?

But the truth is... IT NEEDS TO HAPPEN...

It was "illegal" in the first place for the Fed to have taken what ended up being IN those assets onto its balance sheet in the first place...

I'll dig up the clause in the charter if you're curious...; August 5, 2010 at 10:42 AM
McFearless said...: C,

those are all prices, I continue to use the actual def. for inflation when I discuss the topic. It ALWAYS comes back to prices though. Prices lag inflation or deflation since prices eventual reveal the effect of deflation, isn't that clear by now, when deflation took hold in 2008 it took that gas I buy from above $4 to below $2 at one point and it took all of a few months for it to happen, a 50% decrease in my cost while my own income changed nada over the period and the dollar indeed got stronger. Every Tim Seymour and Joe Terranova were saying at $150/bbl exactly what they are saying now about the coming inflation, people are holding on to a myth imo.

Also, I'm extremely careful about tracking my personal expenses and I'm not sure you can blanket all those prices to everyone, my comcast cable bill has gone down over the last 5 years as has my phone bill, I used to pay a lot more for unlimited texting and free night and weekend calls vs my fee for that now, some with my internet connection, comcast runs specials so often that I get all premium movie channels now for a fee less than what I used to pay just to have HBO. I'm getting a new deck on my house and I'm certainly not paying premium because the contractor needs business bad. Movie theatres where I live run specials all the time with low cost tickets. My RE Taxes are virtually the same exact as they were in 07. Services are losing pricing power more than ever from my perch. Taco Bell now offers a $2 value meal. Some things I need are no doubt on the increase, my cost per thousands of gallon's of water is way up since 07, as are my electric rates, but that's not a function of inflation, there are other dynamics at work there.

the fact is that both money supply and credit are contracting, it is undeniable.; August 5, 2010 at 10:43 AM
CV said...: @karen (10:40)

Sometimes I wonder if Obama is smart enough to actually understand that...

I really do wonder...

I don't doubt he has intelligence... But I'm FRANKLY not convinced he understands that...; August 5, 2010 at 10:44 AM
Leftback said...: See discussion of prices, commodities etc.. on Macro Man today. Some of those guys are London-based and are seeing a lot more inflation than we are, partly b/c of the weakness of sterling, partly b/c Swinging London is flooded with Arab and Russian oil money, and partly b/c UK recovery started later than ours and the Austerity has yet to hit.

UK inflation is much hotter than it is in the US. LB finds that food prices are low everywhere in NYC - except in the midtown and downtown nabes frequented by the Rich and Fabulous.; August 5, 2010 at 10:46 AM
CV said...: @McF

OK... That's a fair enough rebuttal...

I, frankly, do think of INFLATION in terms of PRICES (whether it's "correct" or not from an academic perspective)...

I'm interested in what REALITY exists that affects my ACTUAL behavior...

To behave otherwise would be like someone who was doing some kind of FANTASY TRADING account using an IMAGINARY $100,000 balance to trade with (to see how they'd do)...

Ha!

I don't have to explain to YOU what a JOKE that would be... Or how closely it aligned with REALITY...; August 5, 2010 at 10:48 AM
McFearless said...: while I don't like the labels EWI has, I do agree there appears some sort of triangle as mentioned yesterday, theres likely to be a strong thrust out of it, and my bet would be to the upside.; August 5, 2010 at 10:48 AM
McFearless said...: LB,

I'd think you'd agree with me saying that the deflation has hardly even hit yet, this is going to be a long process. Look at NYC real estate prices, you've got guys like ARS paying above ask! on a 2 bedroom place with a nice fridge...give me a break.; August 5, 2010 at 10:50 AM
Leftback said...: That bloke who writes Of Two Minds is absolutely brilliant....

I am not sure that Obama has much taste for economics, which would explain his Leave it to Beaver approach. Geithner, Summers, Goolsbee and all the other Chicago-school conventional economic thinkers are supposed to take care of all of this for him, leaving him to focus on social issues. Unfortunately, economics trumps all issues here..... the free thinkers are left on the outside.

Stiglitz, for example, and Simon Johnson have eyes that see and brains that can think, and even Krugman is catching on at last.....; August 5, 2010 at 10:53 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep

[08:45:07 AM]: SPU GS up to 700 sold locals bot & still a liitl long on the pop up weak shorts covering no real ppr buyer; August 5, 2010 at 10:53 AM
CV said...: @McF

See... That's the part of it that I agree wit you on...

So to clarify...

CV sees DEFLATION in asset "prices"
CV sees INFLATION in raw goods "prices"

Now- that second one doesn't mean to go out and buy commodity stocks...

It means that J6P needs to go out there and stock up on raw goods...

and I include "methods" of climate controlling your house (whether by propane gas, farmed renewable energy, pellet stoves, space cubicles, whatever) as being in the same category as a RAW good...

IOW - Want to beat inflation? Buy a big propane tank and fill it up... and buy some tomato seeds and till a patch of dirt... Buy some plastic trash cans to harvest water...; August 5, 2010 at 10:56 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-08-05/wheat-jumps-to-23-month-high-as-russia-bans-exports-corn-gains.html

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat rose to a 23-month high as Russia, the world’s third-biggest grower, banned exports because of the country’s worst drought in at least a half-century. Corn and rice also surged.

A ban would be “appropriate” to contain domestic prices that gained 19 percent last week, faster than at the peak of the global food crisis in 2008, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin told a government meeting in Moscow today. The ban on wheat, barley, rye, corn and flour exports starts Aug. 15 and ends Dec. 31, according to the government decree signed today.

“As of today, Russia has no grain market,” said Kirill Podolsky, chief executive officer of Valars Group, the country’s third-biggest grain trader. Valars will stop exports immediately because shipments may be held at customs until the start of the ban, he said. “This will be a catastrophe for farmers and exporters alike.”; August 5, 2010 at 10:57 AM
Leftback said...: Prices are interesting. Follow along with me...

If you want to buy a tomato or a bottle of wine in NYC, you can pay whatever you want, more or less.

25c for a tomato in poor neighborhoods, or $1 in Midtown. $6.99 for a bottle of Argentinian wine or $35 for almost the same thing in SoHo. It's part ground rent and part "what the market will bear".

The poor already know this. J6P will catch on to this first and then when the upper middle class trades down en masse, mid to high end grocers are in trouble. Muffy doesn't spend enough to keep them in business on her own.; August 5, 2010 at 10:58 AM
wunsacon said...: McFearless, thanks for the warning about DBA. After seeing the recent runup, I sold some for now.

Have a good day trading, folks. Off to the salt mine.; August 5, 2010 at 10:59 AM
Leftback said...: LB thinks the current commodity spikelet is an ECHO of the 2008 spike and it is caused by the FED pumping liquidity that currently has nowhere else to go. It is self-limiting - the cure for high prices is high prices (a favorite quote from RITZY).

Likewise, the equity rally is an ECHO of the 2007 peak. Both will end before the winter. The winter, not Albert Edwards' ICE AGE...; August 5, 2010 at 11:03 AM
karen said...: alaidi - ElErian saying 25% chance of deflation reminds me of Greenspan starting w/ 25% chance of recession in 2006 b4 he said 60% $$; August 5, 2010 at 11:03 AM
McFearless said...: C,

I think people have changed their behaivor in response to prices, at least on gas. I wonder with gas for example, how much impact that is truly having on the average household budget in the bigger picture, I watched a fairly large client base change driving habits very quickly when it got into the mid 3's and beyond.

Consider that in July of 08 motorists had driven 30 billion fewer miles over the 6 month period compared to a year earlier.

The average motorist drives about 12k miles per year, so at 4 bucks a gallon you spend $3,200 assuming you get about 15 mpg's. Compared to $2/gal this is a monthly increase in cost for a driver of $133. I don't know the data on how many drivers are in the states, but if 30 billion less miles are driven and the average person does 12k per year, you can do the math and see that the cure for high gas prices was high gas prices.

Was $4 gasoline really rough for some people? Sure it was. But it's a little flea compared to the trouble people are having servicing DEBT.

further, there are other fixes if you didn't change driving habits, so at $4 you have to spend an extra $1,600 a year to drive those 12,000 miles. If that's the case why not cut the cable bill for a time, you could easily make up the difference, most people pay more than $133 a month for cable package/dish, etc. You don't need to be a Phd. to figure simple budget ideas out like this.; August 5, 2010 at 11:05 AM
CV said...: @McF @LB

Think of it this way... Both of you, the other day on this blog, were talking about how a 10% annual return would be SWEET... Right? Almost unattainable (without real risk)...

So compound that over 5 years from par

100 x 10% + 5 years = about 61% compounded return (take away taxes and you're down to under 50%)... but just use 50% as a ballpark number assuming you use Tim Geithner accounting principles)...

Or else... You could go out today and buy a 1.75 litre bottle of "Brand X" vodka (for 20 bucks) and put it in your basement...

Let it collect dust for 5 years (only real risk is that your old drunk uncle Willy comes stumbling down there one Christmas and drains you dry) :-)...

I'll betcha that bottle costs damn near $30 in 2015...; August 5, 2010 at 11:06 AM
karen said...: Is this sensationalism or serious??

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/forget-instarefi-here-comes-instaloanforgiveness; August 5, 2010 at 11:12 AM
CV said...: @McF

"Was $4 gasoline really rough for some people? Sure it was. But it's a little flea compared to the trouble people are having servicing DEBT."

The only reason we're not talking about this EYE to EYE here is that I'm taking it to the next step in the process...

People can ALWAYS get out of DEBT by declaring bankruptcy...

After that though... the FIXED costs of eating, housing, & energy still remain...

Those will have to be trimmed as well...

One of the SOCIOLOGICAL things that CV sees happening (that hardly anyone talks about), is that I believe FAMILIES will start moving in with each other again... (as most do in Europe - and around the world for that matter)...

What's interesting, is that that points to a WHOLE NEW LEVEL of "deflation" that nobody has even considered yet...

3 families living under the same roof eliminates the TRIPLICATE of household "trinkets" needed to buy... And think of OTHER things as well...

- CABLE SUBSCRIPTIONS
- NUMBER of REGISTERED VEHICLES

I won't go on, because it's EASY to understand the downsizing...; August 5, 2010 at 11:14 AM
Leftback said...: Looks like a good day for shorties to make coin.; August 5, 2010 at 11:15 AM
CV said...: @karen (11:12)

well if it's true... Peggy Joseph is a modern day Nostradamus...; August 5, 2010 at 11:17 AM
Anonymous said...: @ CV, regarding inflation/deflation - inflation in things we need. Look at college tuition vs. cpi. If you have a kid going to college, good luck!

I Can; August 5, 2010 at 11:19 AM
CV said...: @anon

Worse than that is the HIDDEN INFLATION of tuition...

meaning: The ROI of what someone paid for tuition in, say, 1980 and eventual wages & salaries pocketed

VERSUS

What you pay today, and what one might expect the ROI on eventual wages & salaries, going forward, to be (and the amount they will be TAXED on those wages - the SOCIAL SECURITY deduction & the idea that they will probably never receive the social security payment when all is said & done)...; August 5, 2010 at 11:23 AM
Anonymous said...: Leftback said...
Looks like a good day for shorties to make coin.

Agree, and maybe the same into next week...

Last 3 days plus today SPX has traded within 11 bucks (1117-1128), + or - a few points around 1122.88 (.382 1116-1134). Building up for the next move up? Or, bulls trying to keep it up which will eventually fail later today, tomorrow into next week?

just rambling on here but haven't seen much strength since the gap up a few days ago. Looking like 1116 will be hit before 1134 IMO. so thinking bulls don't have the upper hand this time... we'll see

18; August 5, 2010 at 11:25 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Well, about the Russian wheat ban. Two tiny thoughts come to my mostly empty cranium.

First, obviously, bread and all its relateds will be higher this winter.

Second, Putin and the ruling elite just DECIDED to stop exports of wheat. Whacks the exporters and farmers. At least that can't occur here...(sighs)...deep water drilling ban, nuclear power plants, cap and trade, etc and etc.

Time to go vote!; August 5, 2010 at 11:27 AM
karen said...: gotta run across the street to feed my neighbors' cat.. look at jnk while i'm gone and pls pls pls forestall a melt-up for 15 min.. thx; August 5, 2010 at 11:29 AM
CV said...: I've JOKINGLY said before that if someone has a "college age" teenage daughter (and she's attractive)...

If your goal is a real dollar return... a better ROI might be to buy her a pole and some dancing lessons rather than pay 4 years of college tuition...

In the end - both probably bring about the same atmosphere...

In one scenario she leaves with a pile of loot

In the other she leaves with a mountain of debt (then to pay off that debt has to basically go pole dancing in the business world anyway to get ahead)...

Of course I'm just JOKING here...

We know colleges and businesses are upstanding and reputable places that produce worthy graduates of scholar...; August 5, 2010 at 11:29 AM
CV said...: @18

My gut tells me that the bulls aren't going to want to give up the WEEKLY candle so easily...

The most bearish I could see it would be the bulls giving up on today and a retrace going asa far back as the beginning of the week candle (at 1101)...

Then... we'd get one of those Friday afternoon "melt-up" jobs (on short covering), and the SPX would close somewhere in the 1110-1116 range...

That would make a SPINNING TOP doji (for the weekly candle)...

PERFECT to give both bulls & bears indigestion over the weekend... :-); August 5, 2010 at 11:34 AM
72bat said...: @ karen
re: instaloanforgiveness
and doesn't the first commenter resonate with me...?
"And once again, as someone who made certain I bought all the house I needed but much less than I could "afford", and who's religiously paid off ahead of schedule on his mortgage (and as a result of these actions is still above water by more than 30% in spite of losing 20% in "value" over the last 2-years), I get to subsidize people who made imprudent decisions up and down the entire lending chain (from financer to borrower).
In other words, in spite of "doing everything right" through the years I'm played as a sucker. Again. As a matter of official Fed.Gov policy.
Damn, but do I loathe these motherf***ers.; August 5, 2010 at 11:40 AM
el gato de la casa pacifica said...: lucky puddy tat; August 5, 2010 at 11:41 AM
McFearless said...: "Look at college tuition vs. cpi"

College is not something you "need"

there's too much consensus in this idea for me, perhaps SOME things we need will go up further in price, some others will not, it's never that easy.; August 5, 2010 at 11:52 AM
karen said...: bat.. i completely commiserate! and, i want commensurate compensation! unfortunately, i gather that the prudent are the minority in this country. i suspect it will got to hell in a hand-basket rather quickly now.. the unintended consequences of moral hazard.; August 5, 2010 at 11:52 AM
McFearless said...: when I hear wheat ban I think MON, one of the most unethical companies in the world, the govts best buddy, iow.; August 5, 2010 at 11:55 AM
karen said...: I suppose we will all be dead soon anyway. Arab states go nuclear..

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abbxCRJ.4aPA; August 5, 2010 at 11:57 AM
karen said...: it drives me crazy to see charts of names like GS and MON imperceptibly interchangeable ! (excluding MON's wheat candlestick today..); August 5, 2010 at 12:00 PM
McFearless said...: "but haven't seen much strength since the gap up a few days ago"

from a wave perspective the gap up the other day looked more like a third wave than anything. What you are seeing now the weakness is common in wave iv's and this is clearly a triangle now, the move down today was not an impulsive one. if there is a wave 5 up to come it is supposed to be weaker than what came before it but for a trader it still means higher prices in the very near term.

if anything perhaps the small caps offer the best short opportunity right now both from a ta and long term cycle perspective.; August 5, 2010 at 12:00 PM
Leftback said...: No melt up today, LB will go with a late-day DUMPAGE.; August 5, 2010 at 12:01 PM
Leftback said...: Ben, agreed on the small caps... higher volatility than the divvies.; August 5, 2010 at 12:02 PM
karen said...: Another Three Peaks and Domed House schematic, CV!

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/08/a-top-of-sorts-is-near.html; August 5, 2010 at 12:12 PM
CV said...: @karen

From a tactical perspective...

CV NEVER understood why Washington is so afraid of the Middle East having nukes...

Forget the fact that Pakistan (or North Korea) have nukes for a moment... But think of it this way...

If all the Arab countries & Israel want to nuke each other into smithereens, why the hell should we care?

It would irradiate the oil in the region for how many years? The half life of the fissile Plutonium isotopes 239 and 241 are 24,100 years...

Gee - Why didn't Jimmy Carter think of that back in 1977...

Instead of wasting billions & trillions on the DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY to "reduce our dependency on foreign oil"... If that was the goal, he could have just divvied up our arsenal of nukes amongst Middle Eastern countries and let them have at it...

We could have stuck by with our shale deposits, Permian basin and "rollerskate looking" Honda CVCC's & been happy...; August 5, 2010 at 12:15 PM
CV said...: @karen

I was going to point out that 3P&ADH last week...

In fact... I think I did... HERE... Gotta go fetch it...; August 5, 2010 at 12:16 PM
Leftback said...: K,

Would love to see your Top again, before the end of the week.....

;-); August 5, 2010 at 12:19 PM
CV said...: The "business end" of nukes, ANYWAY isn't the BOMB...

It's the range of the ROCKETS that deliver the payload...

Unless you just want to go the suitcase route...

But if you wanted to go that route, you could do the job with Cobalt-60; August 5, 2010 at 12:20 PM
karen said...: do you all think i should stop following BreakingNews ?? I'm beginning to wonder if it is having ill effects..

Two school buses and tractor-trailer crash in Gray Summit, Mo., killing 1, injuring 50 - KMOV http://bit.ly/cBR1oX; August 5, 2010 at 12:21 PM
karen said...: i never expect to see a penny (and will leave the country if palin is put on the ticket again anyway!)

US Social Security To Dip Into Red In 2010
By Jamie Coleman || August 5, 2010 at 15:07 GMT
Outlays will exceed tax revenues for the first time since 1983 in 2010, say the Social Security trustees. A $41 bln deficit is expected this year and a smaller deficit is seen next year, after which a return to economic growth is expected to boost revenues. Deficits are expected to grow after 2014 as the baby boom generation retires. The fund will run out of money completely in 2037 if no changes are made.
One more factor helping balloon the US budget deficit. No doubt, the program will be made solvent overtime by raising taxes and raising the retirement age, a painful combination…; August 5, 2010 at 12:23 PM
karen said...: who would buy into this game??? insanity.

http://epicureandealmaker.blogspot.com/2010/08/jezebel-spirit.html; August 5, 2010 at 12:27 PM
72bat said...: karen -
yes; August 5, 2010 at 12:28 PM
karen said...: more insanity as reported by The Economist:

Alan Greenspan, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, weighed in on the state of the American economy, saying that it is currently going through a “pause” in a modest recovery, which feels like a “quasi-recession”. He gave warning that a double-dip recession could occur if house prices declined again.; August 5, 2010 at 12:29 PM
karen said...: bat, that "yes" could second any number of my above comments! laughing; August 5, 2010 at 12:30 PM
CV said...: Thanks Mr. Magoo...; August 5, 2010 at 12:30 PM
karen said...: mrtopstep

twitterland hows this 4 chatter #futures $ES_F Aug 5, 2010 00:26 EDTJames Pethokoukis An August Surprise from Obama?; August 5, 2010 at 12:30 PM
karen said...: BreakingNews - Senate approves $26 billion bill to aid states save jobs of teachers, police, public worker; August 5, 2010 at 12:31 PM
karen said...: mrtopstep

#futures $ES_F http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/ Rumors are running wild from to forgive a portion of the mortgage debt...; August 5, 2010 at 12:32 PM
CV said...: @karen

That's gonna be a PANDORAS BOX...

If that's the case... Then everyone should be forgiven credit card debt as well...; August 5, 2010 at 12:35 PM
karen said...: jjc did make a low on the week today, fwiw..; August 5, 2010 at 12:36 PM
72bat said...: wtf? hurray for the return of the epicurean dealmaker, always a joy to read his prose.; August 5, 2010 at 12:37 PM
ee cummings said...: yes is a pleasant country; August 5, 2010 at 12:37 PM
CV said...: Oh look...

I charged up $20,000 worth of dinners on my Master Card...

Now the food & bottles of wine have all been reduced in value by digestive enzymes...

They're WORTH LESS... So I need to be forgiven the price I paid for them...

Sounds about the same to me...; August 5, 2010 at 12:37 PM
YES said...: Owner of a Lonely Heart... Much better than a Owner of a Broken heart...; August 5, 2010 at 12:39 PM
karen said...: pandora's box.. you are not kidding! how in the h*ll could they even determine market value--or the amount to forgive is beyond me.. and how about if that original home equity was spent on consumer goods-- Obama is the new Santa Claus. Everyday is Christmas in the USA.; August 5, 2010 at 12:40 PM
Sally (Meg Ryan) said...: "Yes"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nNhOH4Y0bI; August 5, 2010 at 12:41 PM
karen said...: As absurd as the idea sounds.. you know it's true.. leaked to work out the bugs?; August 5, 2010 at 12:42 PM
CV said...: Take it out for a test drive... see what she can do...; August 5, 2010 at 12:46 PM
CV said...: They're fresh out of buildings to fly airplanes into, or underwater oil caps to blow...; August 5, 2010 at 12:46 PM
CV said...: It was SO MUCH EASIER in the "cold war" when we knew who the enemy was...; August 5, 2010 at 12:47 PM
karen said...: themosmitsos - If that's what we're going 2do,what about those that *ALREADY* lost their homes? Before this debt forgiveness? Screw em? 100% Fai; August 5, 2010 at 12:48 PM
CV said...: My suggestion (as host of a "supposed" financial oriented blog)?

Invest HEAVILY in "popcorn" futures... And get yourself a nice barca-lounger to go with it...; August 5, 2010 at 12:49 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Interesting day. DIL is coming so I took the day off. Ran 4 miles this morning then went to vote. I might have been the youngest bubba there. Never seen so many canes and swollen ankles in my life in one place.

But the turnout was strong. It took an average of 8-10 minutes for these older guys and gals to vote. And that kind of made me happy. That they made the effort in their condition...

I may, though, have been the only one to take a republican ballot. Where I vote is in the heartland of a democratic "artist colony" of retirees...; August 5, 2010 at 12:49 PM
CV said...: @karen

All this says... NOW...

Is that Obama has completely lost control...

The "fixes", proposed by his assembled team are a complete failure, and he is flapping around in quicksand as we speak...; August 5, 2010 at 12:51 PM
Meg Ryan said...: CV,

Have you seen my panties?; August 5, 2010 at 12:51 PM
McFearless said...: check out TSLA, looks like the company that's never made any money has lost some of its appeal.; August 5, 2010 at 12:51 PM
McFearless said...: social mood reveals itself when Greenspan is not just able to demand money for speaking engagements, but that he's even listened to at all.; August 5, 2010 at 12:52 PM
Saint Jamie said...: Sell 'em Lloyd....; August 5, 2010 at 12:53 PM
CV said...: @LB

CV thinks we "may see" the KT today (or in the AH)...

How's that for cryptology?

It gives me an "out"... So in case I'm wrong, I can always do a Doug Kass and weasel my way to the other side... :-); August 5, 2010 at 12:54 PM
McFearless said...: Daneric's blog comments have turned into the yahoo message board. That blows, there were a lot of serious wavers there when he first started it.; August 5, 2010 at 12:55 PM
Leftback said...: Always happy to see the KT, several times a week is nice.; August 5, 2010 at 12:55 PM
CV said...: @Meg Ryan

Panties are just an afterthought...; August 5, 2010 at 12:55 PM
Leftback said...: We are all serious wavers here.; August 5, 2010 at 12:55 PM
CV said...: @McF (12:55)

I kno right?

Nowadays it's like...

"I'm Buying here"

"I'm selling here"; August 5, 2010 at 12:56 PM
McFearless said...: C,

every other line is your mom jokes or something stupid. its too bad.; August 5, 2010 at 12:57 PM
CV said...: @karen

Come clean

Yelnick's 3P&ADH would be suggestive of something NORTH of 1220 (and into March 2011)...

Do you buy that?; August 5, 2010 at 12:58 PM
CV said...: @McF

I kno... The only idiot who does that around here is CV... :-); August 5, 2010 at 12:58 PM
karen said...: CV, you know we need to take out last friday's 1088 to reverse this train..; August 5, 2010 at 1:03 PM
CV said...: IWM - right now

Looks like it's BEGGING for a deeper correction...

I mean... Tuesday, it COVERED it's gap from Monday, and STILL hasn't reached higher highs...; August 5, 2010 at 1:03 PM
CV said...: @karen

I'm not calling for a p3 my dear...

I'm just looking for a healthy correction (maybe to your top)...

1090 would be as deep as I'd go...

But hell... I'd go LONG there (to be quite frank)...; August 5, 2010 at 1:05 PM
karen said...: the only hint that spx isnt running on all cylinders is spy..; August 5, 2010 at 1:05 PM
karen said...: ive got popcorn all over my lap and on the floor !! typing with right hand while left shovels it in : ); August 5, 2010 at 1:06 PM
McFearless said...: "the only hint that spx isnt running on all cylinders is spy"

how about volume, among other things?; August 5, 2010 at 1:07 PM
karen said...: mrtopstep

Major event in 6 weeks on $VIX? Jamie back on Sonar report video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6-RO25w9d8; August 5, 2010 at 1:08 PM
CV said...: In my mind...

The "perfect" MISERY INDEX lies somewhere between the 1110 level being taken out today, then re-gained by the close tomorrow...

For all we know, the squid has ALREADY ENGINEERED that for late this afternoon before heading off to a weekend of hookers & blow...; August 5, 2010 at 1:08 PM
John Houseman said...: "We make money the old fashioned way... we EARN it"; August 5, 2010 at 1:11 PM
karen said...: ben, that is what spy is ! combo of price and volume silly.. it is actually bot and sold.. maybe skewed by sso.. who knows. there are so many 'options' to play these days. all i can do is kiss.; August 5, 2010 at 1:11 PM
McFearless said...: karen,

i'm keeping in mind what I said last week, that a break of 1130's would fool the most people into thinking the bull was back, and just in time for a big fat C wave down. People want to foroget how often we continue to see distribution, I suppose that was my point.

re: VIX, for at least a month and half now all the action has been in that month's contracts, you'll see it if you go back and review all the old updates.; August 5, 2010 at 1:17 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I think the time has arrived where people now think our national government has forgotten one of their jobs is to make life better for the average American. And I don't mean handouts. I mean in the ability to make a living and live a productive life. Many of the people I see daily think the national government no longer listens to the will of the people. And many are "sure" the government could care less about the average worker...

...I'd have liked to be a fly on the wall about 1774 or so in the colonies when King George was discussed. It would be interesting to compare how emotions ran then to now.; August 5, 2010 at 1:18 PM
karen said...: h&s on 10 min spx.. it's true!!; August 5, 2010 at 1:18 PM
AmenRa said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; August 5, 2010 at 1:20 PM
karen said...: c breakdown today but im trying to curb my enthusiasm; August 5, 2010 at 1:22 PM
CV said...: @karen

Re: SPY

I don't know what kind of software you use... But I added a chart of SPY of the software CV uses above...

NEW CHART ADDED

It includes AFTER HOURS prints (yellow shaded areas)... Forgive me for the "doodle lines" on the chart - that's just me fooling around on my real time screen...

Anyway - this is why I think we see KT today or tomorrow...

The move would come pretty quick... and then probably reverse...

In the PREMARKET... They STAMPED what you'd been looking for (that 1131-1133 level)...

It's been all FIB retraces from there...

So until that wave stops... I'm on that train...

FWIW; August 5, 2010 at 1:22 PM
AmenRa said...: Bueños dias o bueñas tarde. ¿Que pasa?; August 5, 2010 at 1:22 PM
karen said...: sorry, AR, you r too late for the popcorn; August 5, 2010 at 1:23 PM
AmenRa said...: Karen

Lo siento; August 5, 2010 at 1:25 PM
karen said...: CV.. I'll take that train, too. meet you at the bar : )

(great chart! love the ah prints); August 5, 2010 at 1:26 PM
CV said...: How about a nice chimichanga?; August 5, 2010 at 1:27 PM
karen said...: Yo lo mucho siento, tambien : ) ahora, estoy muy gorda !!; August 5, 2010 at 1:28 PM
CV said...: @karen

I emphasize that AH aspect because it's been happening A LOT lately...

All these prints that WAVERS (like Daneric) are looking for are happening, but they're happening AH...

It happened at 1010... It happened from that rise off of 1065...

CV "missed" both of those (but I've gotten wise)...

The WEDGE conclusions (at the end of waves) are being stamped in the AH... trust me...; August 5, 2010 at 1:29 PM
McFearless said...: thrust out of the triangle here???; August 5, 2010 at 1:35 PM
AmenRa said...: CV

I wonder if they don't count the AH because it doesn't reflect all participants.; August 5, 2010 at 1:36 PM
karen said...: sorry! almost missed topstep:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjLQS9v2zZs; August 5, 2010 at 1:37 PM
karen said...: http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/signs-of-a-distribution-top-sp500-and-intraday-elliott-insights/; August 5, 2010 at 1:39 PM
CV said...: @Ra

I don't know...

When I pattern out all the TRENDLINES and FIB RATION (which include all these AH levels)...

They come in as fairly reliable... Many times actually more reliable than the CASH...

I'll put a few more up late to illustrate...

What TODAY is showing me is that TODAY's BATTLE has not been WON yet... We still have time to go to a higher high...

But the bulls are on the defensive...

I know that doesn't sound like (because that's what it looks like in the cash too)... But perhaps it's even MORE apparent in the SPY in this exact moment...; August 5, 2010 at 1:40 PM
McFearless said...: there are tips on what to do when you have waves that happen in after hours, this sort of thing has been happening a long time, it's important to keep in mind there are lots of wave violations on the very short term time frames, which is why I've said before news can move markets for a little bit of time, but it can never change a TREND:

Q: Wave analysts notice some abnormal patterns in wave structures from time to time. For example, some analysts cite examples of the 5th wave consisting of 3 waves. Someplace in 3rd wave, a 4th wave comes on top of the 1st wave. There are instances when flat have a 5 -3 -3 structure, but such patterns mostly occur within short timeframes. What is your opinion of such instances?

A: (Bob Prechter) I think most of these, by far, can be eliminated with a different wave labeling. I have seen a few thousand very bad wave counts in my lifetime. But there is a more fundamental observation, which is that no one can see waves of social mood per se. All we can see is the results of those waves, in human actions such as buying and selling stocks. It is not a perfect translation. Therefore, even though I believe that there are ideal social-mood waves, we have no perfect recorders of it. This is why you see anomalies in short term price action, which can be affected by random events such as whether the person who plans to sell that day has a flat tire and can’t get to his terminal. Intermediate, Primary and larger waves, in contrast, are usually quite perfect in reflecting Elliott’s forms. (Interview with TheIgnatPost.ru); August 5, 2010 at 1:42 PM
McFearless said...: I wrote this down a while back from Tom Prindaville from EWI:

It's just as hazardous to blindly accept the all-sessions futures' wave structure as it is to only view the cash index as "the true pattern." Personally, I resolve the issue by looking at the larger Elliott wave view AND other tried-and-true technicals.

aka: widen the lense.; August 5, 2010 at 1:44 PM
McFearless said...: @AT,

if you are around, have you ever seen three triangles in a row?; August 5, 2010 at 1:45 PM
CV said...: @Amen

And so my CONJECTURE (based on my reply to your comment)... Would be that despite not being ALL PARTICIPANTS, it's the MARKET MAKERS who are involved in stamping these prints...

And I think that says A LOT (especially in periods of sparse volume)...

To give you an idea... I'd give these prints about a 1 in 20 chance of ever being OVERWHELMED on any given day...

Until we reach the point that TS "really" HTF, of course... :-)

But we haven't arrived at that day yet (as CREDITCANE would most surely agree)...; August 5, 2010 at 1:48 PM
karen said...: A Jonathan Weil bedtime story:

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMbPXTOryycs; August 5, 2010 at 1:52 PM
CV said...: @McF

I'm going to add this...

As I observe these AH prints (on 1 minute candles)... They ALWAYS form themselves around fib levels and wave counts...

So after many months/years of observation... I can't simply dismiss them as random...; August 5, 2010 at 1:52 PM
McFearless said...: C,

they aren't random, they happen all the time as I said above, I'm just talking about how you go about trying to reconcile your wave counts around them, there is nothing random about markets, anyone that's ever traded them has to admit this.; August 5, 2010 at 1:59 PM
McFearless said...: to further clarify, i wouldn't interpret what RP is saying there in relation to chart as him saying those are all just random, perhaps if there was one of them over a year period, which you clearly just illustrated has not been the case.; August 5, 2010 at 2:01 PM
Leftback said...: K.,

I would probably get long if I saw your Top close up.
Much bigger if we were slightly below or right at your Top.

Thrusting out of the triangle might have to wait until next week.; August 5, 2010 at 2:01 PM
McFearless said...: we'll see as we approach days highs but I may have just nailed this triangle breakout as I bought more SSO just before typing my 1:35.

we'll see though.; August 5, 2010 at 2:02 PM
McFearless said...: be better to see us slice right through the 1124 and then the and if we get close to 1128 I'll just sell it again if it starts to look like it's struggling there.

I can't stomach being long unless it's really quick like this, time for that without as much worry was 2009.; August 5, 2010 at 2:04 PM
CV said...: @mcF

For fun NEW CHART IN THREAD...

Take a look at the 1 minute candles from this morning... their behavior (including AH [actually "premarket" trading])...

and see how they behave as an offset off the WHITE areas (open market trading)...

Look at the FIB levels... look at the waves... look at the wedge...

That wedge is set to expire at around 3PM (typical right)?...

We'll soon see...

---

Right now - I take it that we weren't able to blow the 22.5 level they were talking about at TOPSTEP... (that was the "escape" from the wedge you see)...

Says to me we're going lower...

But don't TRADE off that knowledge (lol- I know you know... so that statement wasn't meant for YOU)...; August 5, 2010 at 2:07 PM
Leftback said...: I think they will want to take profits on the week before too long. There really is very little likelihood of a lovely big positive jobs number.

Tiny Tim has telegraphed a bump upwards in U-3....

We have longs, but we are definitely feeling like hedging these today, and have added to those positions.; August 5, 2010 at 2:09 PM
Leftback said...: Added to the hedges put on last night, is what I meant.; August 5, 2010 at 2:10 PM
CV said...: @LB (2:09)

I was going to just say something like that...

Regardless of what NFP is...

Who want's to GET LONG - AHEAD OF IT - RIGHT NOW? (on a week that is already delectably green & showing signs of fatigue)?

takers?; August 5, 2010 at 2:11 PM

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