TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 8.12.10

Morning Audibles 8.12.10

Sorry... A few computer problems this AM (slow & agonizing) kind of like one of those highway projects...

SPX looks very weak this morning... Bounce day? Weekly candle starting to look FUGLY...

If it's simple MORALE problem, there's an easy way to fix that...

And when you're done (and after some 'round the horn hoops & a round of 18 holes at the country club)...

303 comments:

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Nic said...: Pie :) All I can smell is Napalm
Good Morning CV; August 12, 2010 at 9:08 AM
Nic said...: Fannie and Freddie not to big to fail, good opinion piece:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/12/opinion/12carney.html; August 12, 2010 at 9:11 AM
CV said...: @Nic

LOL

It's weird... The futures were down like this late in the evening, then they recovered, now they've regressed towards where they were last night...

I haven't looked at anything yet, but it reeks of European liquidity problem (and/or LIBOR)...; August 12, 2010 at 9:12 AM
AmenRa said...: Ext Bene +180380
EUC +1158473

Wow.; August 12, 2010 at 9:13 AM
CV said...: @Amen

Those EUC's are the way they figure how many votes they're going to get for passing the extended stimulus measures...

It's easy to count that way... :-); August 12, 2010 at 9:20 AM
AmenRa said...: DXY has broken out above 82.30. Wasn't that Andy's level/; August 12, 2010 at 9:26 AM
Nic said...: FX risk isnt selling off with stocks, bounce might be coming this morning; August 12, 2010 at 9:28 AM
karen said...: morning, all.. i don't trust this market one bit!; August 12, 2010 at 9:32 AM
karen said...: watching tbt or $tnx for a turn.. also remember the 1065-1066 level.; August 12, 2010 at 9:33 AM
karen said...: dollar and gold up together.. love it : ); August 12, 2010 at 9:33 AM
karen said...: jnk got as low as 38.53.. i still think sub 38.5 is coming.

aapl getting cored..

copper up.. sitting on 20 ema.; August 12, 2010 at 9:37 AM
AmenRa said...: TRIN below 0.6 so someone is doing a lot of buying.; August 12, 2010 at 9:38 AM
CV said...: @karen how can anybody trust a market that has gapped at the open, like, 13 out of the last 17 days...; August 12, 2010 at 9:39 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep

trading the low in open range promising sign we almost never buy strength GS sold 1k 600 on the open JAM THEM; August 12, 2010 at 9:39 AM
Nic said...: mrtopstep
GS BOT 500 1077 area; August 12, 2010 at 9:45 AM
I-Man said...: Good Morning Capitalist Warriors of Old...; August 12, 2010 at 9:46 AM
Nic said...: From Jon Najarian:

S&P 500 Futures Fair Value
So, program trading will be the watchword today, as whenever futures gap lower or higher we pay sharp attention to the levels at which the program buys or sells kick in.

Today's S&P Fair Value -2.30 under the cash SPX

Buy Programs will kick in if the futures are -0.95 under, meaning they will sell the overvalued futures and BUY the stocks that make up the index

Sell Programs will kick in if the futures are -3.45 under, meaning the program traders will buy the undervalued futures and SELL the stocks that make up the index

Watch our MrTopStep on Twitter (twitter.com/mrtopstep); August 12, 2010 at 9:50 AM
Harry Wanger said...: The indices will lead.; August 12, 2010 at 9:56 AM
karen said...: i was looking at $gainers, most actives, etc and came a cross BIS.. up $3.73, vol 200 (ultrashort naz biotech) give me a break!; August 12, 2010 at 9:58 AM
I-Man said...: Re: last nights FF convo...

Unfortunately, I'm in Kauai on the 29th, (I was on vacation this same week last year and missed the draft!)

$100 bones is kinda steep for FF in I-Man's world... didnt realize I was runnin with such ballers... thats more than I've ever done before, and will be a tough sell to the Mrs, as we are in serious spartan budget mode due to the uncertainty of I and I income at the moment...

If there are others that want to play and are ready to pony up $100, and can make the draft date, give them priority.

I love football, and love you guys, but I wont be the least bit slighted if I'm not on board with the league again this year.

No worries either way for I-Man.; August 12, 2010 at 9:59 AM
karen said...: Blackstone Group Raised To Conviction Buy From Buy By...
9:56 AM ET | Dow Jones (rolling my eyes!); August 12, 2010 at 10:00 AM
karen said...: Early indications today suggest that the WTO is likely to rule against the EU in a dispute with China. It looks as if the WTO will say that the EU’s policy of slapping extra duties on imports it considers to be unfairly priced is in violation of the agreement. This case involves the EU effort to impose a 5-year levy on Chinese iron/steel fasteners imports (trade valued at about $750 mln in 2007). If this is indeed the ruling it could have broader implications and force the EU to impose anti-dumping tariffs on a company-by-company basis, rather than an across the board blanket act. This is potentially the first WTO victory for China over the EU.

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/tensions-rising-with-china.html; August 12, 2010 at 10:02 AM
karen said...: BreakingNews - Average rates for 30-year fixed mortgages fall to 4.44 percent, lowest level in decades - AP; August 12, 2010 at 10:04 AM
karen said...: bingo! CAGC; August 12, 2010 at 10:07 AM
karen said...: China Agritech, Inc. (China Agritech) is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company manufactures and sells organic liquid compound fertilizers, organic granular compound fertilizers and related agricultural products in the People's Republic of China.

I bet they sell bridges in Brooklyn, too.. but whatever.. could be a good, mindless trading stock.; August 12, 2010 at 10:08 AM
I-Man said...: And I dont even want to contemplate the scale of that type of arb that Dr J is writing about up there...

No wonder the keep all those quants so busy in the basement...; August 12, 2010 at 10:09 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep

TOP NOTCH has 1083.50 pivital; August 12, 2010 at 10:12 AM
karen said...: LB.. don't get on my spelling.. that was a paste!!; August 12, 2010 at 10:12 AM
I-Man said...: Just think of how far we could get as a society if all of that brainiac quant "talent" was put to good use solving the worlds problems, instead of devising schemes to skim a few points here and there (with sick leverage, of course) in index arbitrage...; August 12, 2010 at 10:13 AM
Nic said...: HAHAHA; August 12, 2010 at 10:13 AM
CV said...: "solving the worlds problems"

You really want people FIXING THINGS?

Seems to me that most of the problems in the world are actually BECAUSE too many people are fixing things all at once...

JM2c; August 12, 2010 at 10:17 AM
karen said...: I missed this earlier but geeze does this reit trade rich..

Essex Property 2Q Down 17% On Lower Same-Property Revenue
5:06 PM ET 8/4/10 | Dow Jones
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Essex Property Trust Inc.'s (ESS) second-quarter profit declined 17% on lower average same-property revenue, as the West Coast apartment owner's results missed Wall Street's expectations.

But the real-estate investment trust raised its full-year guidance for funds from operations, a key profitability metric for REITs, to $5.14 to $5.30 a share from the company's already-lifted May view of $4.80 to $5. It attributed the change, in part, on better than expected returns from external growth investments.; August 12, 2010 at 10:18 AM
karen said...: i'm hoping uup put in a dbl bottom on the 3 month chart and is not making a right shoulder !!; August 12, 2010 at 10:26 AM
karen said...: this is very frightening:

http://www.floridaoilspilllaw.com/feds-confiscate-independent-lsu-scientists-samples-because-project-not-approved-by-bp-others; August 12, 2010 at 10:28 AM
I-Man said...: If we breakdown here... its short city.; August 12, 2010 at 10:29 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep

thinkin minor sup 1176 are; August 12, 2010 at 10:30 AM
karen said...: this is the miner i want:

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=109629&sn=Detail&pid=92730; August 12, 2010 at 10:35 AM
karen said...: royalty company, actually.. i used to own a lot of RGLD.. never shoulda sold it : ); August 12, 2010 at 10:35 AM
McFearless said...: my thoughts on the FF is that last year in our league I think it would have been a lot better had we played for money but,... if money is going to keep people out of the league then I'm in even if we just do it for fun again.

So I'll do whatever the group wants to do.; August 12, 2010 at 10:38 AM
I-Man said...: Nevermind... looks like bid city.

Time to get dirty...; August 12, 2010 at 10:39 AM
CV said...: @McF

We'll see how it develops...; August 12, 2010 at 10:41 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep

TOP NOTCH = 1077 BIGGEST VOLUME LEVEL during crrnt trade a breach w/mo cud signal new lows 30yr volume 131.22; August 12, 2010 at 10:42 AM
McFearless said...: CV,

I skipped the LA trip, too much going on right now to step away so the only dates I think that look bad for me right now are 9/2 and 9/7 as far as the draft goes. Other than that I should be able to make most dates work.; August 12, 2010 at 10:45 AM
karen said...: MultiPlan Sells $675 Mln Sr 8-Yr Notes With Yield 9.875%
10:40 AM ET 8/12/10 | Dow Jones

huh?!; August 12, 2010 at 10:46 AM
I-Man said...: Hey I dont want to be the broke ass that screws up the game...; August 12, 2010 at 10:46 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

there is too much fibo all over the dollar chart for me to think it's going to develop a tradeable H&S here. In the few dozen times I've looked the H&S work best when there aren't such clean fibo relationships on the charts. With the dollar it's both price and time.

the sentiment story there is also both funny and amazing to see over and over again.; August 12, 2010 at 10:47 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

Just put together a sack of winning trades between now & then...

Problem solved :-); August 12, 2010 at 10:48 AM
Nic said...: Ok folks I am out for the rest of the day but leaving a bit of a crude long running, looking for a retest of 80 where I will sell again.
Spoos back and retest 1100-1106 and then back south is my plan
Have a great day; August 12, 2010 at 10:52 AM
karen said...: i'm seeing 1088-1090 firm resistance.. my top isn't important anymore.. what do you all see?; August 12, 2010 at 10:53 AM
McFearless said...: ha, that's what I was thinking, could always trade your way into FF.; August 12, 2010 at 10:53 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

I'm with you on that call 1088-1090, and then your 106 is key, left a quick post on the prior thread this morning about that.; August 12, 2010 at 10:54 AM
CV said...: yeah, this move off the open this morning looks ABC-ish...

I'd eventually expect lower lows before going back to the KT zone...; August 12, 2010 at 10:56 AM
karen said...: hate to be on the other side of nic.. but i see uso breaking 34...; August 12, 2010 at 10:58 AM
McFearless said...: From Rosie Today:

"Finally, the best way to describe the financial backdrop is that it is truly a meat-grinder market. The S&P 500 was at 1,090 back on October 14, 2009. It’s at 1,090 today. That means 208 trading days of doing nothing. Nada."

"Yet, what is amazing is the extent of the volatility — 208 days of nothing except a market that has moved up and down on a daily basis by 1,028 points (including 25 trading days of 2% declines or more since the March 2009 lows; the Dow has now fallen 200 points or more 11 times)"

The retail investor has no business messing around with stocks right now, no business at all.; August 12, 2010 at 10:59 AM
I-Man said...: Yeah... I dont trade fi money... I trade fi win.; August 12, 2010 at 10:59 AM
karen said...: oh, should i go to yesterday's thread and finish it up ?? laughing
so much to read all the time.. that's why i love having all your eyes, too!; August 12, 2010 at 11:00 AM
I-Man said...: And starting out as a daytrader isnt exactly making the big bucks folks...

I'll be lucky to pull 50k in my first year... lucky.; August 12, 2010 at 11:01 AM
karen said...: excellent commentary from Rosie.. i should take that advice.; August 12, 2010 at 11:01 AM
McFearless said...: embracing fixed income last fall was a smart move, and I'm still happy I wiped out all my longs at 1k, regardless of what has transpired since.; August 12, 2010 at 11:04 AM
karen said...: Maxine Waters Whacked, Barney Frank Untouched: Jonathan Weil

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anhfBhV52DOk; August 12, 2010 at 11:04 AM
CV said...: @karen

more time for surfing...; August 12, 2010 at 11:06 AM
CV said...: @karen

The sucky thing is that if the GOP wins control in November...

all we're going to see for the next 2 years are a bunch of corruption investigations & hearings as far as the eye can see...

Fine...

But what good will it serve except waste more time until the tide gets turned again...; August 12, 2010 at 11:08 AM
karen said...: yes, CV.. i'm shark bait!

http://www.surfline.com/video/locals/great-whites-off-san-o_46403; August 12, 2010 at 11:09 AM
CV said...: @karen

Maybe one of these will show up at your doorstep...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMaKQJbSJx0; August 12, 2010 at 11:17 AM
CV said...: TWSWB (on a mountain of cash)...

"A few weeks ago, I mentioned we were 50% long, 50% cash, and were planning on selling into any rallies. Since then, we have sold some winners outright (PWER), cut back other positions, and been stopped out completely of losers; win some, lose some. We are now approximately ~85% cash."; August 12, 2010 at 11:22 AM
karen said...: tbt put in a new 52 week low today.. 34.45.. i'm not interested in buying yet, tho.; August 12, 2010 at 11:28 AM
McFearless said...: would seem we still have some room to run on the long bond imo.; August 12, 2010 at 11:30 AM
McFearless said...: karen,

check out the exas chart today, lol, I'll never get involved now that I've watched it for a while, it's not much different than trading an SRS or something like that really.; August 12, 2010 at 11:30 AM
McFearless said...: C,

that was an interesting post by BR, love the bravado from the fund manager, good insight into sentiment.

stops are for losers

really? I disagree.; August 12, 2010 at 11:33 AM
McFearless said...: otay.....so I've been buying dips last couple weeks, I believe I'll be shorting if we can push a little higher today, so now I'm looking to sell some rips, ya heard.

will soon change my handle to flip flopper

I do what I gotta do.; August 12, 2010 at 11:35 AM
CV said...: "You'd be missing all the FUN(d) by stopping out"...

"Huh?"

"You know... THE FUN(d)"; August 12, 2010 at 11:36 AM
Leftback said...: Hello all,

Yesterday was a long hard day for LB, a bit slow getting going here. Just watching today, as one does after being stopped out (and hey, that's what stops are for). LB also has a lot of cash. About 9% long equity positions (mostly non-US), and then we are about 40% in various fixed income vehicles, from JNK, HYG, AGG to TLT. We have been moving out on the risk curve in the last week or so as Treasuries have rallied.

Note that cash positions are an implicit statement that USD will rally, because otherwise one would be fully invested in a stronger currency.

Like b22/McF, I am so glad I went the fixed income route last summer and the strategy has succeeded well beyond my expectations. LB is a good strategist but not a good trader, like you lot. Just concerned here that JOHNNY is starting to see the gains in Ts, and all we can see is some over-priced low yielding securities we want to sell.

Right now, the plan is to add a bit here and there to higher-yielding credit on weakness. We think that we will have time to bail before the ship goes down. Equities are a joke, but we will play the casino a bit here and there from both sides.; August 12, 2010 at 11:42 AM
CV said...: I know you all laugh and chirp about the VIX...

But the VIX candle has been interesting the past two days...

yesterday was a GAP... Then today it pierced the 50MA before pulling back...

Up a little higher would be the LD from the May & July peaks... Timewise, we'd be just about on course to touch that LD again...

Next week is opex...

So it seems to me... THE MAX PAIN right now would be to continue weaker (for a day or two), and get August 110-112 CALL buyers to call it quits... (meanwhile - get the VIX to "close" north of the 50MA for a day or two...)

Maybe even get some nibbles on PUT buyers for 106...

Then reverse the whole thing and cover the distance in two days next week...

if it's not back to 110 by late next Thursday, then the FED can come out with a "surprise announcement" at 3:55PM or some BS like that...; August 12, 2010 at 11:43 AM
karen said...: ben.. i have been watching exas.. spied it red this morning but too little volume for me right now..

i added CAGC to my watch list for quick trading opps..; August 12, 2010 at 11:46 AM
karen said...: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHjgyTLMPmk

Crescenzi; August 12, 2010 at 11:49 AM
AmenRa said...: Now are the PDs selling the 10yr that they bought at the auction? Yield up almost 60 bps.

Buyers have morphed into sellers as TRIN has gotten above 1.01.; August 12, 2010 at 11:53 AM
McFearless said...: "LB is a good strategist but not a good trader"

I'd count myself in that group in a lot of ways. As I've said before I tend to trade the big waves, not the small ones. I've basically told clients for years now that I'm just not good or fast enough to outsmart this market so we are going to embrace the returns bonds can give us in this kind of environment, it's served them very well the last few years. Fortunately most of them have come to realize it is not in fact crazy advice to step aside from equities for a time.

will I keep speculating though with my own money and working on my skills....hell yes!; August 12, 2010 at 11:53 AM
CV said...: "will soon change my handle to flip flopper"

McF = "McFlipflop"; August 12, 2010 at 11:56 AM
McFearless said...: McFlipFlops

not available for breakfast so stay in your car....; August 12, 2010 at 11:58 AM
Jennifer said...: McFearless -- If you took your clients out of the market on April 26th, and I think I read that you did, then you are probably in the top 1% of traders.; August 12, 2010 at 12:01 PM
Leftback said...: Jennifer,

We like to compare ourselves to the elite of traders, rather than the mass of InvestTools™ out there....

McF,

Thanks for keeping LB company in the Fixed Income Universe.; August 12, 2010 at 12:07 PM
AmenRa said...: from the John Taylor article at ZH:

Things changed dramatically between Friday, when the weak employment numbers were released, and Tuesday afternoon when the Fed announced it was edging back toward Quantitative Easing by taking the roughly $180 million it received from interest and pay-downs in its MBS portfolio and reinvesting that cash in the Treasury market. This move told the world the Fed saw the US economy headed into a recession. Although both Friday and Tuesday signaled a weak US economy, the Fed’s position only became clear on Tuesday, and by early Wednesday, the whole world knew the US economy was headed lower. The Fed’s move signaled the situation was not a lukewarm Goldilocks but a cold one on the way to getting colder.

Global Frown Will Turn Europe Upside Down; August 12, 2010 at 12:07 PM
karen said...: oh brother: Foreclosures Spread in U.S. as Idaho Defaults Mount
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aBjcgAjkNnPU

Nokia Loses, Android Gains on Smartphones: Gartner
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a18mU8uRDyxs; August 12, 2010 at 12:08 PM
McFearless said...: Jennifer,

I sold some up there, but mainly I've had clients out of the market since 07, I brought some back in during the 09 rally, but mostly I just stayed with my bonds, which a lot of them were still up double digits last year, along with a gain in 08. I had done a huge liquidation for clients in January of this year at the 1150 area b/c if you go back to AT's site that was my top call, 1158, where on the count I was running with A would = C. We got that nice drop in January right there, it was an awesome fibo set-up, but we all remember March and April and so I had added shorts for some clients around then and was wrong for a few months and I had the wrong count. It was a really tough time b/c after not having pushed clients heavy back into stocks in 09 and then being early with some shorts like that and avoiding the market meltdown no longer matters, people want to know what you've done lately, not over the long run.

I guess I'm talking more about my individual trading skills when I say I can strategize better at this stage. Going into this year as documented by many posts here and other places my top two ideas were short China and long the US dollar, which I sold all out of in May and have been buying back here recently as stated on the board. Both trades were "right" Really though, my execution of the China short in particular was very poor as I used FXP improperly, it was the right trade, but I don't have much to show for it and I didn't trade the rally in late March early April as effectively as I could have nor did I trade the rally that started in July as effectively as I could have.

So, I'm still getting better like everyone else.; August 12, 2010 at 12:09 PM
karen said...: Corey:

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/update-on-surging-bond-funds-tlt-and-ief/; August 12, 2010 at 12:10 PM
CV said...: "This move told the world the Fed saw the US economy headed into a recession."

So I suppose this is the RECESSION within the DEPRESSION...

Is that like a "riddle wrapped in an enigma"?

Or is it something simpler, like, "a pig in a blanket"?; August 12, 2010 at 12:11 PM
McFearless said...: I've got a little SDS going right now, will likely close it before 4 today.; August 12, 2010 at 12:12 PM
karen said...: another great TraderMark:

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/08/bookkeeping-selling-index-longs.html; August 12, 2010 at 12:14 PM
Leftback said...: When I see this stuff, I am thinking, SHORT-TERM TOP:

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/update-on-surging-bond-funds-tlt-and-ief/; August 12, 2010 at 12:21 PM
karen said...: LB, do you have a hangover??; August 12, 2010 at 12:24 PM
CV said...: @karen

On Trader Mark's 3 scenarios...

The thing that comes to my mind is this...

If Goldman (and everyone else), is already out with "lower" GDP forecasts, and with the FED not doing much this week...

It would seem to me that the "capitulation" is already in that we're not going to see 1220 anymore (even though - during July - maybe there was a breath of hope for that)...

So if that money is off the table, the next best thing would to cut as wide a path as possible for a trading range (assuming that an outright crash could be forestalled for as long as possible as well)...

I think that's what equities are going to do here... Just go sideways...

But why make your range 1086-1115?

If 1150 might still be on the table (1115+35), why not broaden that out to 1050 (1086-35)...

JM2c

More "pennies" to pick up... (and it jives with Rosies comments earlier...; August 12, 2010 at 12:26 PM
Leftback said...: The claims number was awful today. Just awful. This is an awful government, and I fear it will be followed by an even more awful Republican government.

It's hard to have any risk on in the face of that kind of data, and yet.... the FED is essentially sponsoring a move toward risk, especially in credit, by saying we will put a floor under Treasuries. So that takes away rate risk, leaving only default risk, which is over-estimated at present.

You really have to make these moves when it is emotionally somewhat difficult to do so. I mean, it seems like a bad week to be selling TLT, as it zooms to a quadruple top... but we'll see what happens.; August 12, 2010 at 12:31 PM
karen said...: CV.. i'm not onboard with his scenarios.. i just enjoy reading his commentary : )

my scenario #1 is we stay below 1088-1090..; August 12, 2010 at 12:35 PM
karen said...: zerohedge

The Dallas Fed Reminds That The Economy Is Doing Much Worse Than In The Administration's Worst Nightmare http://bit.ly/96a4ku; August 12, 2010 at 12:36 PM
karen said...: Doug Kass just sent out a tweet that he is adding to his position in ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE: TBT).
He points out that there is a divergence between TBT and the S&P 500 over multiple time frames.
Kass, a noted short seller, is the president of Seabreeze Partners and a frequent contributor to TheStreet.com and CNBC.

http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/10/08/425620/doug-kass-adding-to-tbt-tbt

(I'd fade that move!!); August 12, 2010 at 12:38 PM
karen said...: just added PST to my watchlist.. ultrashort 10 year treas.; August 12, 2010 at 12:39 PM
CV said...: I'm going long the Doug Kass flip-flop index...; August 12, 2010 at 12:43 PM
I-Man said...: I'm going long the demise of Dougie Kass...; August 12, 2010 at 12:51 PM
Leftback said...: Dougie is not a fool. No-one has perfect timing.
Agreed about the flip-flops, but this is a nightmare market....; August 12, 2010 at 12:52 PM
Leftback said...: Look at USDJPY....; August 12, 2010 at 12:56 PM
I-Man said...: I dont trust any other traders... let alone one who spends way too much time hanging out with the corporate shills in Englewood Cliffs, NJ...; August 12, 2010 at 12:57 PM
CV said...: @LB

Don't get me wrong... I like Doug Kass...

CV reserves the right to "flip-flop" anytime...

From time to time tho... I have to STICK PINS into the dolls of these "anointed ones" who bathe in their ANOINTED ONE "generational calls"... (only to moonwalk later on)...

Further - I think they do a disservice to the public (in the larger picture)...

J6P doesn't have time to do his own research... So J6P tends to listen to these GURUS blindly (and it always ends up costing them money)...

Who ends up with that money?

Dougie and all his Hamptons buddies...

Well... actually the UKRANIAN HOOKERS and COKE PUSHERS who service that community, but CV is just discussing "supply chain dynamics" here...; August 12, 2010 at 1:00 PM
Leftback said...: It's a problem when you are a money manager and a media figure at the same time. Even Barry is stuck with not being able to admit being wrong at times, because then he would lose clients.

Fees, baby.; August 12, 2010 at 1:03 PM
arbitrage789 said...: LB:

"It's a problem when you are a money manager and a media figure at the same time"

..............

You speaking from experience?; August 12, 2010 at 1:05 PM
Leftback said...: 30y auction was fugly. 3.954 at 2.77 BTC. Weak.
Predictable in a saturated market.

The 30y may rally a bit for a day or two, so the B/Ds don't lose money, but the rally should be sold.

Watch money move out along the risk curve...; August 12, 2010 at 1:05 PM
McFearless said...: "This is an awful government, and I fear it will be followed by an even more awful Republican government."

totally agree, talk with any obama fanboy and the fall-back argument is almost 100% of the time:

Well Bush.....

Better than bush should not be:

1. an acceptable outcome for any of us

2. a benchmark. Why would we compare obama's ability to the "worst president in history"

The GOP also likes to use Bush as a benchmark, but aiming low is the new killing it in the GIB.; August 12, 2010 at 1:06 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I heard that the spread between 30 yr T-bonds and 10 yr T-notes is near an all-time high.

What I want to know from the bond gurus is whether that's true, and when the spread is going to narrow.; August 12, 2010 at 1:07 PM
arbitrage789 said...: "This is an awful government, and I fear it will be followed by an even more awful Republican government."

Gridlock in 2011-2012. Gotta be better than what we've had so far.; August 12, 2010 at 1:08 PM
CV said...: I'm going to make a wild guess here and say that for all those who were patiently waiting for 1088-1090...

are going to wish they nabbed 1086.70; August 12, 2010 at 1:08 PM
I-Man said...: "Hedge fund managers now account for one fifth of all trading volume in the $10,000bn US T-Bond market, up from just 3% in 2009..."

Today's FT, pg 11

Might explain some of that, DL...; August 12, 2010 at 1:09 PM
CV said...: @DL

Gridlock is fine with me...

It's just going to be annoying to have to put up with all the inevitable "scandal & corruption" investigations (that will produce little or nothing, punishment wise, and just be a big fat DOG & PONY show)...; August 12, 2010 at 1:11 PM
CV said...: @LB

I can totally see a 98 handle on TLT by September OPEX...

Trouble is... that strike is "baked in" to the options premium at the moment - IMO...; August 12, 2010 at 1:17 PM
karen said...: caption from today's john murphy market message:

OIL AND STOCKS ON SHORT-TERM P&F SELLS -- VIX NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT...; August 12, 2010 at 1:20 PM
karen said...: short blurb from murphy:

BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO DROP ... We'll end today's message with perhaps the most important chart of all. Chart 15 shows a p&f downtrend in the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX). That downtrend started during May and hit new lows again this week. The Fed has indicated that it's going to concentrate its buying in 2- to 10-year bond maturities which is what the TNX is measuring. Falling bond yields translate into higher bond prices. Falling bond yields also imply economic weakness (and some deflation) which is normally bad for most commodities and stocks. Gold is the one commodity that normally rises in a deflationary envirnment. Defensive stocks that pay dividends also become more attractive to investors. That's why they're buying telecom and utility stocks. Both stock groups benefit from a weaker stock market and falling bond yields.; August 12, 2010 at 1:22 PM
karen said...: mrtopstep - upside dealing w/ 83.50 pivot & sttle 10500 w/stops abv 1091 area obj.

mrtopstep - key on 30yr goes 131.13 & higher will add pressure yo spoos 1077 area sup w/ stops below; August 12, 2010 at 1:23 PM
CV said...: @McF

This whole BUSH-OBAMA-CLINTON thing makes me laugh...

Pre 2008... The whole thing (by DEMS), was to portray Clinton as having the author of "The Economic Miracle"...

As far as I was ALWAYS concerned, Clinton was the "luckiest" SOB who ever walked the planet...

He took the realm right at the end of the COLD WAR, and in the recovery end of HOUSING BUST #1...

He had "Easy Al" Greenspan as the fed chief...

And he had a vice president who INVENTED THE INTERNET (which released a lot of VC into the economy...

Further... By 1994, his wifey's idiotic HC plan was shot to smithereens, and he had GRIDLOCK going full speed with Newt & friends...

Not much to do but just sit around and bask in your wonderfulness, right?

---

Well... OBAMA... What does he do when he comes in? Well, Clinton economic team 2 naturally (Bob Rubin, Summers, & crew)...

It just goes to show you how MORONIC it all was to begin with...

Rubin/Summers/Greenspan were morons to begin with (but served during a "no way to lose" timeframe)...

Let's see what you're REALLY all about when faced with real challenges (many of which wouldn't even be present, if you'd had some foresight to begin with)...

result = FAIL...; August 12, 2010 at 1:28 PM
McFearless said...: my own observation on bonds is that many mainstream pundits still find bonds a poor investment, I would not at all go so far as to say that the vast majority are bullish on bonds right now.

From my view, the move doin the long bond from July to early august looked corrective if it looked like anything, EWI says the 4.14% high is crucial and I would agree, so I'm not getting my panties in a bunch over bonds until a problem appears in that area.; August 12, 2010 at 1:30 PM
CV said...: @karen

"mrtopstep - key on 30yr goes 131.13 & higher will add pressure yo spoos 1077 area sup w/ stops below"

I'll take the UNDER

those 1077 stops are DAY TRADING plants...; August 12, 2010 at 1:30 PM
arbitrage789 said...: CV,

Don't you understand?

Clinton proved that higher taxes result in faster economic growth.; August 12, 2010 at 1:31 PM
McFearless said...: and regarding my above, my primary reason for stating that with regard to sentiment is the fact that it is still clear, right on up through the vast majority of those that sit on the Fed, that the primary concern remains inflation.; August 12, 2010 at 1:31 PM
Jennifer said...: While the vix may be near an upside breakout, as of now I'm showing it down for the day. If it doesn't get cooking soon then I think we're looking at a snap back tomorrow. Cobra has been very good at documenting a high percentage of vix down plus spx down = next day up or vix up plus spx up = next day down.

McF -- I'm not holding anyone to their calls! I've had plenty of trouble translating my macro big picture outlook into cold hard cash. My theme for the year, such as it is, is that the rally was totally fake and destined to fail. Sadly, I have not capitalized on this nearly as well as I should have, and now the failure is well underway. I'm not a professional, but I've got one "client" -- they're family and I think they are considering giving me the boot. Frankly, I wouldn't blame them...; August 12, 2010 at 1:32 PM
McFearless said...: "Gold is the one commodity that normally rises in a deflationary envirnment"

this statement is historically inaccurate.; August 12, 2010 at 1:32 PM
I-Man said...: Seeing a lot of "intimidation bid" going on in the ES...

That tells me we're going down...; August 12, 2010 at 1:32 PM
McFearless said...: @Jennifer,

every advisor ever gets fired by someone in their career, sometimes its for the best. I don't know anyone that hasn't lost a client at one point or another.

this is one of the reasons I've grown beyond tired of the "overpaid bankers" meme because most people that say it lump everyone on Wall St. right into the same basket, I'm on the hook every single day I show up here to perform or my clients will walk, and take the equity in my book and my income right out the door with them.; August 12, 2010 at 1:36 PM
CV said...: @jennifer

The VIX pierced the 50MA on the open...

IMO - todays early action was reaction to that...

If we go up and re-test that, todays candle will look like a "hanging man"...

Jury is still out...; August 12, 2010 at 1:36 PM
karen said...: TopStep with Danny: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oq415iYZZU; August 12, 2010 at 1:38 PM
McFearless said...: what has historically happened in deflation is that what is being used as money rises in value as it becomes scarce.

just da facts.; August 12, 2010 at 1:39 PM
karen said...: Danny's talking news and fundamentals! LOL; August 12, 2010 at 1:40 PM
McFearless said...: A short on CAT this week would have been $$$$$; August 12, 2010 at 1:41 PM
arbitrage789 said...: McF,

Is my grocery bill going to go up or down?

Just the facts, please.; August 12, 2010 at 1:42 PM
CV said...: @DL

Clinton proved that:

- If there's no more cold war (and you can shutter military bases and weapons spending), it's easier to reduce spending

- If you have GRIDLOCK within your first 2 years, it's easier to reduce spending

- If you don't pass a government sponsored HC bill, it's easier to reduce spending

- If the Fed chair is an EASY MONEY type and responds to every recession by cutting the FED FUNDS rate, the economy will be OK (for awhile - or, at least until your ass is outta there)

- If VC are pulling money out of their pockets to start businesses because they think they're going to get rich off the internet, you have tax revenues coming in

- If you add on a multiplier to that - in terms of the broader SERVICE SECTOR economy - you're going to bring in EVEN MORE revenue...

- If your economic team allows banks to "lever up", it's going to fan the flames even hotter

AND, IF YOU ALLOW ALL THAT GO GO ON UNABATED FOR 8 YEARS - SOMEBODY ELSE IS GOING TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE TOXIC OVERFLOW LATER...

But you'll have secured yourself a golden parachute for a few decades thereafter until people figure it out...; August 12, 2010 at 1:46 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

there are no facts in a forecast, there are facts about what has already happened though.

in any event, how about instead of some comment like that you just come out and say you disagree with me.; August 12, 2010 at 1:47 PM
I-Man said...: In a healthy tape, theres no need to try to bully and intimidate with bullshit size...

Just an observation.; August 12, 2010 at 1:49 PM
karen said...: Treasuries Oscillate
Thu Aug 12 13:30:00 EDT 2010 | Briefing.com
Results from a $16 billion auction of 30-year Bonds were released at 1:00 PM ET. The auction attracted strong dollar demand of $44.3 billion, but its bid-to-cover ratio of 2.8 was below that of the prior auction. The auction also drew a yield of 3.95%, which is slightly above both the Bond's current yield and what had been widely expected.

The auction initially saw a negative response that sent Treasuries to session lows, they have since rallied back to trade with only slight losses.

Stocks haven't shown much of a reaction to the auction results.; August 12, 2010 at 1:50 PM
Leftback said...: Yes, the 10y30y spread will narrow.

But gains in the 30y will be outstripped by gains in HY, IMHO.

IOW, TLT may grind sideways, but JNK/HYG/LQD will grind upwards.
This is the FED's intent, to prevent another corporate credit crunch.

In addition, with option-ARM resets ahead in 2011, they want to nail mortgage rates as low as is humanly possible and encourage people to refi their way out of Hell. We cannot have bailouts of high-end homeowners so refis are the only hope for these people.; August 12, 2010 at 1:52 PM
karen said...: crude 4 cents till crude under $76

should be 60, but whatever : ); August 12, 2010 at 1:52 PM
karen said...: forget the re-fi option.. homes too underwater for LTV ratio..; August 12, 2010 at 1:53 PM
karen said...: bingo on crude.. 76 taken out.; August 12, 2010 at 1:53 PM
McFearless said...: three attempts at rising through 1085-86 with some authority today and all three are a bust thus far.

I will add more to SDS with some momentum down if I can before e.o.d.; August 12, 2010 at 1:53 PM
arbitrage789 said...: McF @ 1:47

No need to get defensive.

I'm just trying to take the inflation/deflation debate out of the academic/hypothetical realm, and into terms that an ordinary J6P like myself can understand.; August 12, 2010 at 1:54 PM
CV said...: So...

Based on my (1:46)...

A good start to the next POTUS election might be the following:...

- Committ to ending wars and extravagant military budgets...
- Hope for gridlock (either way - I don't care)
- Pray for INTERNET 2 to come along
- Keep Rubin/Summers/Greenspan & Bernanke far from policymaking
- Trash HC - and come up with a better plan
- Trash FINREG - and come up with a better plan

Just for starters...; August 12, 2010 at 1:54 PM
CV said...: @Mcf (1:53)

...my (1:08); August 12, 2010 at 1:55 PM
Leftback said...: Nice call on crude, Karen.

Many homes are too far underwater, and you know LB has no love for those people. But they vote. Remember HAMP didn't work, it was all for show. Most future programs will not work either.; August 12, 2010 at 1:55 PM
karen said...: ben! this guy won't quit! you will love it.. remember he was calling for the fxi breakout..

http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2010/08/good-news-could-come-from-shanghai.html; August 12, 2010 at 1:56 PM
The Squid said...: "In a healthy tape, theres no need to try to bully and intimidate with bullshit size..."

YOU WANNA PIECE OF ME?; August 12, 2010 at 1:57 PM
arbitrage789 said...: CV @ 1:46

Yes, yes, yes and yes.

I agree with all that.; August 12, 2010 at 1:57 PM
McFearless said...: LB,

aren't most of the Option ARM rate tied to LIBOR? Further, low rates aren't really a saving step for people that were on teasers thinking they can just refi, 4% is still way too much for many to service, so is 3%, hence this 0% 50k business, not to mention, low rates solve nothing once you are underwater or unemployed, if the Fed's goal is to keep interest rates low to benefit housing they are truly pushing on a string.; August 12, 2010 at 1:57 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

fair enough, but there is no debate about what gold has historically done during deflation, we simply need to look and see what it did and what was being used as money did.; August 12, 2010 at 2:01 PM
Peggy Joseph said...: @McF

"Further, low rates aren't really a saving step for people that were on teasers thinking they can just refi"

I'm not worried - Obama will pay my gas & mortgage; August 12, 2010 at 2:02 PM
CV said...: @McF

I think DL is doing what I always do...

We CONSTANTLY get into the same argument on this blog...

INFLATION vs. PRICES

They're two DIFFERENT arguments... actually...; August 12, 2010 at 2:04 PM
McFearless said...: speaking of who votes.

not being a political strategist I would think they'd do better to focus right now on the social security crowd and winning those votes rather than those that are underwater on homes which I think is 1 in 5 out of those in homes, though we have how many more baby boomers that know SS is in serious trouble not to mention the large population of those already collecting. Either that or they need to change how the CPI is calculated again.; August 12, 2010 at 2:04 PM
McFearless said...: CV,

yeah, I was just talking more from a trading perspective on gold/dollar.

while it is my favorite debate, I just haven't felt much like having it lately, too much fun in the market.; August 12, 2010 at 2:05 PM
Hu said...: CV (1:54)

Rotsa Ruck; August 12, 2010 at 2:05 PM
McFearless said...: Alright, lets see what happens if we can get to Timmay's 1077, if we break it fast I'll add some more short but will use a stop on that second batch.; August 12, 2010 at 2:06 PM
Leftback said...: McF

What I am saying is by keeping mortgage rates down they make sure that those 4-5-6% rates don't explode out to 8%... IOW, they know that many people are screwed and don't want that number to get any bigger. Yes?; August 12, 2010 at 2:07 PM
karen said...: pay a div; what an aapl idea:

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a04RAlRcPWt8; August 12, 2010 at 2:07 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Let's see what happens to mortgage rates when (and if) unemployment gets below 7%.; August 12, 2010 at 2:08 PM
McFearless said...: Left,

sure, I can't disagree with the concept, just doesn't seem to be having any meaningful impact though. But they'll keep trying.

I think I'm like a lot of people in wondering if BB is going to deviate from his speech at all about deflation, he hasn't so far.; August 12, 2010 at 2:11 PM
karen said...: $spx in no man's land if you ask me..; August 12, 2010 at 2:12 PM
CV said...: @McF (2:05)

Totally understandable... And from your GOLD/DOLLAR posture, I completely agree with your argument...

Here's the thing...

You're 29... When you're 50, the issue of PRICE will be right there in front of your eyes...

I know you're the PRUDENT type, but at 29 years old, you tend to think of yourself as having UNLIMITED "earnings" power... Therefore, the idea of PRICE doesn't fully gel...

Why?

Because the younger a person is, the more they see themselves as being capable of EARNING their way out of any jam...

It changes when you're 50...

You NO LONGER see UNLIMITED EARNINGS POWER... Instead, your mind gravitates more towards the concept of "How can I make what I've accrued last for the rest of my life (and what I'm expected to leave behind for others)"?...

PRICE becomes important at that moment...

And, erroneously or not, the PRICE/INFLATION argument tends to get tangled in that mindset...; August 12, 2010 at 2:13 PM
arbitrage789 said...: "It changes when you're 50..."

There's also the question of how to use the political process to shaft the younger workers, i.e., make them pay for all the entitlements for people above the age of 62.; August 12, 2010 at 2:15 PM
McFearless said...: @Karen,

re: FXI post

in wave world an A-B-C is a corrective pattern which would make that chart super bearish just not immediately, not sure what he's talking about there.; August 12, 2010 at 2:16 PM
CV said...: @karen (2:12)

IMO - if we were going to print 1090, we'd have done it by now...; August 12, 2010 at 2:16 PM
I-Man said...: DL, 2:15pm

Why do you think we dont give a shit about politics, and we dont vote?

Because it doesnt fucking matter.

The only thing people me and McF's age can do is what for it to weaken, and then help destroy it.; August 12, 2010 at 2:18 PM
CV said...: @DL (2:15)

Well - that is one of the reasons why the US is in a bit of a fix right now...

Economically - it would be better to EASE the burdens on young workers right now...

However - the demographics are skewing more towards OLDER voters being the majority...

Think any politicians are going to win any offices by CUTTING benefits to seniors...

Ha!

it's the effin 3rd rail dude!; August 12, 2010 at 2:19 PM
I-Man said...: Obama swindled more of us into voting with his speaking ability than I would care to imagine...

Its amazing what a dearth of leadership will do to a generation...

Hey, we wanted to believe, but all Obama has done is reinforce the LIE in beLIEve.

They are all rotten to the core, the system is rotten to the core.

Time to burn it down.; August 12, 2010 at 2:20 PM
karen said...: alaidi - $XAU looks most bullish vs. #Aussie + #euro. More Downside in $AUDJPY + $AUDUSD. $FXA $$

interesting to me he is watching $xau !; August 12, 2010 at 2:21 PM
Leftback said...: I-Man,

Fighting talk. I am with you, young people are pissed off beyond belief. Even LB who is not so young... if they don't dismantle some of these banking dinosaurs and allow capital to go to work to create jobs for young people, there is going to be some serious unrest.; August 12, 2010 at 2:22 PM
karen said...: if gld makes it above 119.. i think there will be a gold rush..; August 12, 2010 at 2:23 PM
CV said...: @DL

All anyone need to understand about politics is to watch the rat go through the snake...

The RAT = Baby Boomers

Until they die, they'll get what what they want at the expense of others...; August 12, 2010 at 2:23 PM
I-Man said...: Shit, half of us are going to end up supporting our parents anyway...

My parents are both near 60 and neither have a thing saved for retirement, what they do have:

Debt.
Illusions.

Ahh... its so sweet.; August 12, 2010 at 2:24 PM
I-Man said...: Dont you love the irony McF?

We are our grandparents in their youth...; August 12, 2010 at 2:25 PM
McFearless said...: C,

In some respects that's true about me I'll admit, otoh, many experiences in this job have changed what I think I can do, fully realizing it's not all up to me with regard to my earning ability.

One Example:

I had a young and fit client that nearly died a few years ago falling out of his tree-stand, he had to be airlifted out of the woods with a broken neck, he almost bled to death but another hunter found him, he couldn't reach his phone when he fell out of the tree because he couldn't move and it had fallen too far away from him. I've seen many people become too sick or hurt to work so I hold no thoughts about my earnings ability always being up to me.

anyway, my b-day is in a little over the month, the big 3-0. You guys gonna move me to adult status at that point?; August 12, 2010 at 2:25 PM
Leftback said...: The two party system is dead, it just doesn't know it yet.

Wait until the Far Right emerges to battle with a new Green Left, and we will all forget the Elephants and Donkey show in a hurry, and politics will become serious instead of a game show. You can already see how bad the Far Right is going to be.; August 12, 2010 at 2:26 PM
CV said...: And as far as OBAMA is concerned, it's the same thing...

Obama won based on three plusses:

1. He appealed to the young
2. He appealed to African Americans
3. But most importantly - he appealed to the "hippie boomers"... (anti-war children of the 60's who wanted one more crack at revolution - you know - to show the YOUNG UNS how it's done)...

Obama really wasn't IN TOUCH with any of it at all... He clearly believed he had some kind of "special message"... He thought it was about himself...

So - when #3, above, disappears (when they find out their FINITE resources are about to take a hit - they'll discard him)...

And that's MORE than what will be able to be compensated for by #'s 1 & 2... (vote wise)...; August 12, 2010 at 2:29 PM
McFearless said...: I,

yep, supporting parents, going to happen to a lot of people in our age group.

this is some Fourth Turning type discussion here.; August 12, 2010 at 2:30 PM
McFearless said...: "He appealed to the young"

to SOME of the young, a group I count myself in, though I've been against him from the start, I've had no viable options for true leadership that actually had a shot at winning since I became eligible to vote. Not one.; August 12, 2010 at 2:32 PM
I-Man said...: Sorry, if I sound like I'm pissed...

Its worse when you're awake. Sometimes I wish I was still asleep like most of the people my age...

Blinded by entitlement, vanity, materialism... reality tv...

Lost from themselves.

Guess I need to get cracking and make some dough, buy some land with water access, and drop the fuck out.; August 12, 2010 at 2:32 PM
CV said...: @McF

"anyway, my b-day is in a little over the month, the big 3-0. You guys gonna move me to adult status at that point?"

Answer: NO "I guess by now you can take a hunch, and find that you are the baby of the bunch"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAElxLLys6k; August 12, 2010 at 2:33 PM
McFearless said...: hey, come on now, I-man and I are about the same age with almost identical b-days to match.; August 12, 2010 at 2:35 PM
CV said...: ...all you're here to do is just "WIGGLE OUR BEHIND"

Embrace it! :-); August 12, 2010 at 2:36 PM
CV said...: LMAO; August 12, 2010 at 2:37 PM
arbitrage789 said...: CV @ 2:29

The latino voters may give Obama a second term.; August 12, 2010 at 2:37 PM
I-Man said...: Whatever 80s boy...; August 12, 2010 at 2:39 PM
McFearless said...: "Blinded by entitlement, vanity, materialism... reality tv"

ah, yep.

every time I go out:

why don't you have an iPhone, Like I'm some sort of second class pos because I don't have one...please, I rock a free Razr...baller!; August 12, 2010 at 2:40 PM
McFearless said...: http://www.1980sflashback.com/; August 12, 2010 at 2:41 PM
Leftback said...: You two certainly are amazingly wise for 30.

LB was a completely clueless tool at your age..... (leaves door wide open for DL and Karen), although always extremely handsome (that's for B in T).; August 12, 2010 at 2:42 PM
McFearless said...: going below 1080 this time?; August 12, 2010 at 2:42 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

Don't be pissed at CV...

I don't have any kids I'm expecting to take care of me...

Nor a government...

Since you've known me (from DAY 1)... Every endeavor I make is in the realm of "self sufficiency"...

So keep those chinese throwing stars in your pocket...; August 12, 2010 at 2:42 PM
I-Man said...: Yeah... I need to get a Louis V decal for my bike...

That I'll ride in my $300 jeans... they make me feel so fresh...; August 12, 2010 at 2:42 PM
CV said...: Re 30... (last word)

I wish the VIX would get ABOVE 30; August 12, 2010 at 2:43 PM
I-Man said...: I love ya CV, you know my 2:39 was meant for McF I hope...

Him being born in 1980, and I-Man way back in 1979...

:); August 12, 2010 at 2:44 PM
CV said...: @IMan

Here was THE WORLD when CV was 30...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXEsSrmabA0

Now it might be easier to fast forward and understand where we are...; August 12, 2010 at 2:45 PM
I-Man said...: And I prefer the Nyabinghi Spear, the humble sling and stone, and donkey jawbone...

To the chinese throwing star.; August 12, 2010 at 2:46 PM
I-Man said...: Speaking of VIX...

Is everyone smelling the FEAR???; August 12, 2010 at 2:47 PM
McFearless said...: I have been thinking about a D&G sticker for my car though...haha.

it's that or spinners.; August 12, 2010 at 2:47 PM
arbitrage789 said...: "LB was a completely clueless tool at your age..... (leaves door wide open for DL and Karen)"

Not going to touch that one.; August 12, 2010 at 2:47 PM
72bat said...: @ i-man
"We are our grandparents in their youth... "
increasingly i see my 20-yr old daughter's future to be all too similar to those of my mom in 1930s and she hasn't a clue. feel like i've dropped the ball.; August 12, 2010 at 2:49 PM
CV said...: @McF

The "Infinity" that I saw with the D&G decal actually had spinners...; August 12, 2010 at 2:51 PM
I-Man said...: Parenting is a tough gig, Bat...

I'm learning that one every day.; August 12, 2010 at 2:51 PM

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