A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Creditcane™: This is only a small portion of the devastation I can wreck. Prepare thyself.
SPXBearish short day. Gap is resistance (and is futile). Back below the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10) & (2/5/10-5/6/10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1127.24). QE2infinity.
DXYBullish short day. Tested and passed the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated and the 80.95 (fib .09) has been defeated. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 80.60). There is now a weekly 3LB reversal up.
VIXBullish short day. Hanging man? No. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still holding below weekly 3LB mid but now back above monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89) but above the SMA(144). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 22.01).
GOLDSpinning top day. Above the SMA(21), the SMA(89) and the SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above 14.6% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1197.90). There is a weekly 3LB reversal up.
EURUSDBearish short day. Midpoint below the EMA(10). Back below 1.2935 (fib .1459) and the 38.2% retrace. Also below the 3x1 Gann again. Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3231).
JNKSpinning top day again. Did not test the 61.8% retrace or the 50.0% retrace. Back above the SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).
DJ TRANS AVGBearish short day. Hammer was made of inferior metal. Below the SMA(55) and SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). Also tested trendline using highs and failed. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 4452.13).
10YR YIELDBearish short day. Gap is now resistance. Held new 0.0% fibo retrace at 26.83. Midpoint way below EMA(10). Below the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 28.24).
AUDJPYHigh wave doji day. Snuck above the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Above the 23.6% retrace at 75.5696. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.1783).
YEN (FXY)Bearish long day (3x). Above all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below the 14.6% retrace. Possible test of 113.86 (the 23.6% retrace) if BoJ gets serious (coming soon?). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 114.60).
70 comments:
hey I heard there was a margarita party going on?
@Jennifer,
Just caught your post from earlier re: DSI sentiment. Fwiw, those are facts those figures, we subscribe to trade futures, its pricey but I don't like waiting for EWI to publish the numbers, they never misrepresent them just publish whatever shows up on the reports. So the Euro and Dollar bull figures are entirely accurate.
AT,
You still watching sugar? You see a big decline coming soon?
Would appreciate any thoughts.
Good article in the Telegraph about savings accounts and CPI. It is written about UK but applies here. If CPI (currently 3.2%) hits 3.8%, then not a single savings account will offer a positive return http://bit.ly/cHaUSX
re: PIMCO selling treasuries
lets put this into perspective, they carved roughly a little less than 1/4 of their treasury exposure in PTTAX with a 26 billion sale, thats all, gross oversees a trillion by himself though, so $26 billion isn't "big". PTTAX alone is a > 240 billion fund with nearly 40% exposure to treasuries coming into the second quarter which is a 3 year high for the fund. He still kept 75% of their exposure and I called pimco late this afternoon to see if they are hedging and the answer was no, but if you want that buy the unconstrained bond. they still own virtually no TIPS and I see no reason why they'd buy them in the near term, the remainder being mortgages and corps with some of the odd short stuff he does in the fund.
he remains underweight in corps compared to peer group so I'll be interested to see what happens in that space with the fresh capital to work with from these sales, he'll need a lot more than $26 b though to really change the allocation in a material way.
I realize a lot of people hate PIMCO but Bill Gross knows what he is doing, it pays to watch him.
@McF
You missed the margarita party (which descended into WHALE TALES anonymous)...
I'm doing a DRIVE BY here (as I'm BACK from my Margarita Party - but now on my way to Office Depot to buy one of those UPS whiteboards for the fantasy draft league that I hold LIVE)...
We're going UPTOWN this year...
damn, whales tales eh?
did ahab show up? :)
I'm off to dinner with fam.
WHALE TALEZ bitchez!... :-)
Is Karen having fun yet?
Marabuzo baby. Love those weekly charts
When every EWer is calling today a iv of (i) I'm skeptical. A break of 1056 would certainly help the cause. Incidently, if this is iv of (i), 1.618 of i would take us to around 1056. With the big gap up from July 21-22 still in play and the resistance in the 1044-1070 range, I remain skeptical. There are still more short term bullish scenarios in play such as we are in (b) of a-b-c of C. Five waves from July 1st are complete i.e. that count is either finished or ruled out.
Hope everyone has a good weekend.
How is the market gonna tank now that the Squid is calling for it? (See ZeroHedge.) Is the Squid talking their book after getting short??
I wonder whether the Squid wants to try to improve upon its recent lackluster track record (of giving customers bad advice) by making some calls that have a good chance of being proven correct.
well well well, maybe the writing really is on the wall for Keynesianism after all.
I mean that Central Banks, not just academics, may be waking up.
I wonder how Obama feels about having been sold such a dud...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eric-sprott-we-are-now-paying-funeral-keynesian-theory
Bertie
(God am I drinking red wine again?)
Are any of you facebook users? I "deactivated" my account but if you are and you use the Foursquare application to tell people where you are then you can get 25% off at the Gap today (one day only). This is their best ever offer for first time users.
FWIW I think their 1969 collection this year, particularly the skinny jeans are the best they have ever done.
Anyhow it says a lot about how important social media is for advertising today especially now we are in the back to school shopping season.
America is shopping again, port traffic shows imports up and exports flat http://nxy.in/i0hd4
Reuters:
Will continue watching yen carefully: Japan's PM Kan
http://bit.ly/c1lA4q
Signs that housing has not yet bottomed:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUIPxT6bDdA
Folks - Remember that Andy T is on vacation again this weekend so he'll be back next weekend with his Sunday Evening Post/Charts...
I'm going to leave this thread running until Sunday night...
@Bertie
"I wonder how Obama feels about having been sold such a dud..."
Sold such a dud?
All I can say is that the last time I checked, a person who operates a DAIRY QUEEN is supposed to know the difference between a Buster Bar, a Waffle Bowl Sundae, a Dilly Bar, and an Oreo Brownie Earthquake...
You see... Actually having a job there, (or somewhere else), helps teach a person skills that they might put to use later in life...
@Bertie
It doesn't even have to be a Dairy Queen...
It could be any fine establishment...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eREiQhBDIk
@CV
ah yes Falling Down, a pretty sad scene that one (pretty sad movie)...
What on earth has that clip got to do with Obama ha!
Tonight I caught up on yesterdays thread (everything happens after I go to bed), it was unadulterated hilarity right through to the finish.
Bertie
Oh Nic, I check your site every day now after that outstanding interview you did last month, posts have slowed down a bit there, are you still on holidays?
Bertie
@Bertie
It's a running joke...
CV has always joked from Day 1 that Obama (having passed from role of lecturer to community organizer to US Senator) had never really accomplished anything ADMINISTRATIVE in his life...
It always occurred to me that it might be a decent idea for a POTUS to possess SOMETHING in the way of administrative skills and not just be good at reading teleprompters...
Dairy Queen has always been my shining example...
But, that's not the case, and thus we've gotten a SELECTION of 'Harvard buddies', and czars...
Oh well - we were probably too far down the rabbit hole already to begin with...
Hey where's the steering wheel?
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:PMM6wbv7ZO7YFM:https://christal.elte.hu/curriculum2/Anglisztika/49Pint%C3%A9r/LRSetup/UK/CULTURE/images/steering%20wheel.jpg&t=1
@CV "Oh well - we were probably too far down the rabbit hole already to begin with..."
Yes I suspect so!
Anyway why are you awake CV, you seem to be getting worse than McF. Are you rising or still on your way to bed?
Bertie
oh hang on, its not early anymore is it! Its me that should be in bed
Hi Bertie
I haven't been very well lately, I got Lyme infection from a tick bite. I am feeling much better and hope to be back there posting daily next week.
Thanks for checking
Very sad. 33% of Irelands workforce under 30yrs old is unemployed
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/26/ireland-economic-collapse
@Nic re Ireland that stat is simply mind-numbing, a lost generation in the making.
Yes I knew about your Lymes but I was hoping that had fixed itself, it does go away doesn't it?
Bertie
And did you get to enjoy the sunshine in the short Canadian summer Nic?
Impatiently awaiting the end of winter here. B.
From Rosenberg yesterday in case people missed it:
The aggregated household debt-income ratio peaked in Q1 2008 at 136%. Currently, this ratio is at 126%. But the pre-bubble norm was 70% (no wonder 25% of Americans have a sub-600 FICO score). To get down to this normalized ratio again, debt would have to be reduced by around $6 trillion. So far, nearly $600 billion of bad household debt has been destroyed. In other words, we have much further to go in this deleveraging phase. Maybe this is why the McKinsey report concluded that this process can and often takes up to seven
years to complete.
Folks, we are in this for the long haul. It’s not too late to enter the acceptance
stage.
What about debt in relation to household assets? That debt-to-asset ratio is currently at 20% (the peak was 22.7% set back in Q1 2009) but again, the pre- bubble norm was 12.5%. The implications: classic Bob Farrell mean-reversion would mean a further $7 trillion of debt extinguishment.
Thanks for the reminder McF, I hadn't got around to yesterdays Rosenberg yet.
This article was v good this morning regarding the Fed's options and how long it is going to take.
John Williams: Times That Try Our Souls
The message I am getting everywhere is this is going to take a loooong time to fix.
Nic,
that was a good read.
the measurement rosie gives above is one of many that look like that. Going into 2008 it's quite amazing how bad household balance sheets looked, they've not really improved in a meaningful way either.
Here are some other measurements and these only go up to 2000, these come from CTC:
Household's liquid assets were moved to 161% of liabilities from 1942-1966. At the end of 1999 liquid assets were 93% of liabilities so less cash was on hand than there were liabilities.
Me: I would suggest taking a look at the MEW slides that Barry placed in his Agoria slideshow and then the following slide which shows what GDP would have been without MEW (mortgage equity w/drawal) gives you a nice glimpse of how much worse this measurement got as we went into 2008.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/agora-symposium-slideshow/
Consumer Debt: At the end of 1966 consumer debt was 64% of annual disposable income, at the end of 1999 it was 97%.
Personal Savings Rate: From 1942 - 1966 the personal savings rate followed a fairly flat trend bottoming at 6.5% of disposable personal income in Feb 1969. Personal savings dropped persistently from 1975-1999 falling to a then record low of .5% in March 2000.
Unemployment: From 1948 to 1966 the mo. avg unemployment rate was 4.9%, it was 6.6% from 75-99. I doubt I need to much explain wha this looks like since 99.
Industrial Production: Average annual gain from 42-66 was 5.3%, it was only 3.4% from 75-99.
Capacity Utilization: rose 22% from 48 to June of 1966 where it reached 91.5%, it peaked in 1995 at 84.4% and was 82.7% in June 2000.
Now why on Earth with the above data, is anyone surprised at all that the Fed's low rates and provisions of "liquidity" are not causing all the robots....er, I mean people, to borrow and leverage up even more. This is not hard stuff to understand.
And btw, as noted in CTC, as dramatic as many of these fitures are, they don't even reveal the full extent of how bad it really is since the governments economic reports as well as corporate accounting methods changed from 1975-1999. They also note that if you start the second set of comparison data in 1982 instead of 1975 to put the expansion in the best possible light that many of the measurements are they show in the book are worse and there is very little overall change at all.
Wizard....pfffft.
A few "fundamentals" for the weekend.
the "new" new math-
http://reason.com/assets/mc/jtaylor/bokteacherbailout.jpg
hopefully next it will be green tea- they say that's good for you-
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/tomtoles/2010/08/11/c_08122010.gif
“Time discovers truth.”
“Anger: an acid that can do more harm to the vessel in which it is stored than to anything on which it is poured.”
Seneca
Great William Black interview. I wish he had Bernochio's job:
Bill Black: U.S. Using "Really Stupid Strategy" to Hide Bank Losses
another thing regarding the above, consider how many assets sit in such a small amount of hands, those averages on things like household liquid assets vs. liabilities hardly do justice by showing an average.
there was a high speed chase that ended in my hood this morning. most exciting thing that's gone down since I moved in here. even had a helicopter.
I, for one,would never allow LB to call me Claus.
And if I was taking Cialis for daily use, I would not allow the use of an avatar that might cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. You know who you are.
And where is Tiger in the PGA? Thursday he was only a couple of strokes behind.
And the Perseids were marvelous the last couple of days. I discovered a new phenomenon, and only because my wife and I were watching for meteors. I saw two Friday night that "blinked" that is, they appeared for less than a second and were gone. I imagine that these were small comet remnants that were coming in at exactly perpendicular to my axis of observation. Since only at times of major meteor showers do I ever stare at the sky for meteors, I have probably seen this before, and just not realized what I was seeing.
I saw the perseids for the first time too and I agree, they were marvellous.
Full cloud cover tonight :(
McF those traffic tickets are the only way they are going to pay for that helicopter - expect more of the same.
Video: Rick Santelli, Larry Meyer on Squawk Box from Thursday -- CNBC
From the Daily Bail
Quantitative easing is the new blood sport. The entire clip is awesome. Watch it all. The headline Santelli quote comes at the 1:45 mark. Then at 6:05 Santelli says:
"Larry, since when have the economy and tax dollars been turned into an experiment, a petri dish for economists who have maybe 3 large samples from the past 80 years to try to explain their Keynesian principles. I don't get it. This is an experiment taxpayers don't want to fund!"
Meyer, to his credit, admits a secret, that the Fed bluffs and lies about its ability to effect markets (at 8:05):
"You have to tell a little white lie. When asked if you have all the tools to solve the problem, you have to say 'yes.' Can you imagine if Bernanke said "we can't do anything about it," the market would be down 40% before he finished his sentence."
Santelli then retorts that the market would rally 1,000 points on the news that bailouts and Fed/Treasury intervention was coming to an end. If you're keeping score, this QE v 2.0 bloodsport battle goes to Santelli.
Hello from Cozumel Survivor Capitalists. Just checking in real quick at 40c/min internet cafe. Will be back on Monday and will be back to publishing ideas next week.
Go bucky, go.
I stayed up all night on mushrooms once tripping out on the Perseids...
-I
They really are amazing...
McFearless - read this about sugar:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/14/business/14sugar.html
Besides watching a meteor shower, I would like to recommend at least one other bit of astronomical wonder: look through a telescope at Saturn. It's a different experience to see it -- albeit, a small spec -- hanging in an image in the eyepiece than a picture.
Falling Down, Sad Movie. I think it is one of my favourite movies right from Scene 1 where the guy just gets of the car and leaves. One knows how it is all going to end, but still. One of Mr. Douglas' best movies.
Nic, looking forward to your postings.
Prashant
Funny you should mention Falling Down. I was just thinking a few weeks ago about Michael Douglas making the "Wall Street" sequel and how he should make a "Falling Down" sequel as well. "FD 2" is begging to be made today.
Didn't he get killed at the end of Falling Down?
@Nic
"You have to tell a little white lie. When asked if you have all the tools to solve the problem, you have to say 'yes.' Can you imagine if Bernanke said "we can't do anything about it," the market would be down 40% before he finished his sentence."
First Greenspan says that we're sure to double dip if house prices go down...
Bernanke seems to think he needs to single handedly buy S&P futures...
Now this guy...
Since when was it the JOB of the Fed to support the stock & real estate markets?
The fact that these guys are VERBAL about this is very troubling...
>> Didn't he get killed at the end of Falling Down?
Duh! [smacking own forehead] You're right. Well, we'll just have to get creative with the script... "Dallas" anyone?? Yes, that's it! FD1 was just a dream...
Or, call it a "remake" for current times rather than a "sequel".
Jeremy Siegel still promoting QE: The Fed Is Not Out Of "Silver Bullets"
Give me a f'in break.
Jeremy Siegel was on CNBC a few days ago. He was asked to comment on the fact that the S&P is down over the last 10 years. In response, he admitted that buying stocks in the year 2000 was a bad idea. And what does he say now?
BUY, BUY, BUY.
my man Pat Buchanan-
A nation whose national debt is approaching the size of its gross national product, that goes abroad to borrow money to keep non-essential workers on government payroll is a nation on the way down and out . . .
Nor is this the first time the Obama administration has rushed to save workers whom their own state, city and county governments were prepared to let go. Among the reasons the $800 billion stimulus failed is that so little of it was directed to firing up the locomotive of the economy, the private sector, and so much of it was spent to ensure that government workers did not have to share in the national sacrifice.
no doubt- so important in fact that Pelosi had to arranges a special session of Congress- it just couldn't wait until September-
don't worry government workers- the federal government has got your back-
for everyone else- there is unemployment and food stamps
Will there be a massive carry trade unwind soon?
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDHoiIqyn7TY&pos=1
‘Mr. Yen’ Says Japan Can’t Stem Currency’s Rise as U.S. Falters
Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s yen, the best performer among major currencies this year with a 7.9 percent gain against the dollar, may surge further as concern grows that U.S. efforts to boost economic growth may fail.
“What we are seeing is not appreciation of the yen but weakness of the dollar, reflecting concerns that the U.S. economy may falter,” Eisuke Sakakibara, formerly Japan’s top currency official, said yesterday on the Fuji television network. “There is a chance the yen will reach an all-time high and stay at that level for the time being.”
The Japanese government has yet to formulate strategy for stemming a yen surge that threatens the earnings of exporters including Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Canon Inc. A report today probably will show the nation’s economy grew at the slowest pace in three quarters in the period ended June 30, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast.
The yen reached 84.73 to the dollar on Aug. 11, a high since July 1995. Sakakibara -- known as “Mr. Yen” for his efforts to influence exchange rates through verbal and actual currency market intervention while at the Ministry of Finance in 1997-1999 -- said the currency may match its April 1995 peak of 79.75.
Japan economy grew at 0.4%. Expectations were 2.3%.
BANZAI!!!
AUDJPY -0.97%
EURJPY -.67%
Gold up, sugar up, oil down, 10yr yield down.
Starting to get good...
Here comes the monday morning kicksave...
I'm pretty sure many European markets are closed tomorrow...
CV
Hard to kicksave a carry trade unwind.
True dat
It's OPEX week tho...
So watch out for any big money STRANGLES up near spy 110...
Sounds like the perfect week for a OPEX eve "surprise FED announcement" on Thursday at 3:55PM...
No markets closed tomorrow, but a lot of europe is vacationing.
Next holidays are UK on 30Aug and USA and Canada on 06 Sep
Save this one CV
http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/8250/11873an1.jpg
Its the Fed chasing the market
Nic
I think this might be more appropriate example of the Fed: Dog chasing tail
CV, did you paint your tailgate on your Ford?
good evening! checking in.. how far back in comments do I need to go in my wine laden state..
so sorry about my avatar.. keep meaning to change it.. Nic, how are you feeling?? I'm so mad at AT.. bet he's in SD and not looking me up..
got new music!!
http://gilbereforte.com/blog/
commenter on Bill Ackman's investment in Stuyvesant Sound
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2010/08/ackman_lays_out_his_plan_for_s.html#comments
Report
BY JOHNOBOLTON on 08/14/2010 at 8:48am
Let me get this straight, Ackman puts down a modest 45 million and gets control of the entire property for what amounts to a 2.5 percent down payment on a 3 billion dollar mortgage, and gets 12 thousand apartments at roughly $300 per sq ft. He then proceeds to flip the complex to individual buyers at a $600 - $900 per sq ft, requiring a 20 per cent down payment,returning him 100 - 150 per cent profit, not to mention extremely profitable management fees. In olden days you'd be lashed to a flaming wheel and rolled of a cliff for hatching a scheme like this..
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