A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Creditcane™: I am the master of your fate. I am the captain of your soul.
SPXBearish long day. Did not hold 1110. Back below the SMA(89) but below the SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 1127.79). QE2infinity.
DXYBullish long day. Back above SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated and tested 80.95 (fib .09) and passed easily. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 80.41).
VIXInverted hammer day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still holding below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89) but above the SMA(144). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 21.74).
GOLDSpinning top day again. Above the SMA(21) and the SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 14.6% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1158.60). Tested but failed (again 3x) the weekly 3LB reversal price.
EURUSDBearish long day. Confirmed hanging man. Midpoint below the EMA(10). Did not hold the SMA(144). Back below 1.2935 (fib .1459) and the 38.2% retrace. Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 1.3274).
JNKBearish short day. Resolved doji lower. Did not test the 76.4% retrace and then closed below the 61.8% retrace. Below the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).
GSBearish long day. Resolved doji lower. Failed the SMA(144). Midpoint below the EMA(10). The 38.2% retrace (153.99) didn't hold. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 156.41).
10YR YIELDBearish long day. What 14.6% retrace? Have a new 0.0% fibo retrace at 26.83. Midpoint way below EMA(10). Below the SMA(21). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 28.24). Mine, mine, mine. They'll take any yield as long as it's not equities.
DJ TRANS AVGBearish LONG day. Now below the SMA(89) and SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). About to test trendline using highs. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 4516.35).
WTIBearish long day. Below the SMA(21), SMA(89), SMA(233) and SMA(144). Midpoint below the EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 82.55).
AUDJPYBearish long day. Back below SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Heading back towards 23.6% retrace at 75.5696. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.1783).
EURJPYBearish long day. Back below SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below 23.6% retrace at 111.2349. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 108.0025).
LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT
The Bond Report 8.11.10
What a day... action in credit markets was more sedate than in the equity arena, but there was still whackage in high yield and an orgy of buying in Treasuries. Towards the end of the day there was a move out of IG and into HY. The 5y TIPS yield reached zero and the 10y UST reached 2.68% at the close. Remarkable stuff, considering the DEATH of TREASURIES was foretold this time last year.
Corpies: LQD 0.00%; AGG 0.09%; JNK -0.97%; HYG -1.30%;
Govies: TLT 1.34%; IEI 0.20%; TIP 0.00%
Readers of LB will not be surprised to learn that he thinks this is all a bit overdone and he wouldn't put any of Granny's money into TIPS or Treasuries just now, after all the short covering this week, who could possibly be left to buy?
Cash is fine, there will be other opportunities, and just for a trade we fancy a cheeky entry into higher yielding bonds. We have been selling long bonds every day this week and will continue to sell strength. We have no TIPS and expect a sell-off at some point. We own large amounts of AGG, some JNK, LQD and a tiny bit of TLT (or their equivalents).
45 comments:
Thanks Ra.
What course is that? That hole looks nasty.
figure people would at least want to glance at this
http://tv.yahoo.com/blog/who-are-tvs-top-earners--1459
That's the Investment Links at Squid Sands there, Ben, and you're looking at a 756-yard par 3 with 365 bunkers, one for every day of the year.
But with me as your caddie, you will have no fear. Put your trust in our experience, and your money in my pocket.
but can I get some sort of CDS on my score for the hole?
oh, and I want to pick what I'll shoot before I buy that swap from you, and then I'm going to shoot that, now just find someone else to take the other side and I'm ready to go, and make sure you don't tell em I got to pick my score.
Two Morgan Stanley brokers convicted of fraud can keep their signing bonuses:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a84iRSvxQcAQ
Alot of comedians here today...
Wonder why???
@CV,
Check this out, from Dow Theory Letters Today:
"I'm leaving it for mad Wednesday, but tomorrow I'm publishing a big Russell rant, so sit down when you read tomorrow's site. Hey, I'm mad as hell, and I'm not going to take it any more."
what was that you were just saying???
That was sort of fun day....
Big, big move in the Euro...that sort of move is not "normal."
Beniccio Bernanke's best laid plans got shoved his buttocks today.
I'm sure he'll "respond" to the market's transgressions against the almighty and powerful Oz.
he he.
Yeah, fun.... what's that..?
"THE FUN"
Japan 1995.
Note the 2-month delay between the DEATH CROSS and the beginning of the big dipper. SO in our case that means July to September. Some of the other Japanese formations of the 90s are nightmarish, will share these another day when I am more bearish !
Nikkei 1995
I-man (6:39)
Other then TWA giving me the giggles...you haven't been around much lately...I know...you're in learning mode.
Now let me hear that djembe in 5/4 time...for "balance" you know...or 6/8...my favorite groove.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40bWymVPsx8&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hmV3xQ9qlw&feature=related
I don't know if anyone is looking at FUTURES...
But I've seen S&P down as low as 1076...
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Tokyo isn't going straight down, so that's something...
Good work today, CV. Quality, as we say back home.
@LB
Yes I'd agree with what's happening in Tokyo...
It seems... based on my observations... like the overnight markets have been producing the TECHNICAL wave peaks (and therefore it makes the cash markets more blurry)...
It's gotta be driving WAVERS insane...
I think they'd better start adding these prints to their bag of tricks or they'll get fooled a lot...
Interesting (8:23)
CV-
are you resurrecting the Ritholtz FF league for this year?
I'm in- $$$ if possible- paypal- $100 - $200 per team?
let me know
@ahab
Yeah... tentatively I'm planning a draft date for August 29 (sunday)...
We can talk about cash later - but most seem to be up for it...
You're definitely in if you wanna be...
So far I think I have:
-CV
-Andy
-Ben
-You
-Manny
-Mutt (I think)
So need to get others... I think 2s2b said he'd get in...
Bob? DL?
Anybody else ready for some football?
BTW
You can all just contribute your entries to CV, because I'm going to SMOKE you all this year...
Oh wait... I-Man is in for sure too (as long as he's not dicking around on a wakeboarding excursion in the Carolinas)... :-)
@LB
Thanks also... for THE BOND REPORT...
As long as you can manage to author one, we're more than happy to publish it... (That would be AMENRA's job because it goes together with his CORNER (daily wrap)...
the 29th I will be on Hatteras Island- somewhat desolate- but I may be able to find a connection somewhere
@Nic
Per last week... I WOULD like the "Nicole Elliott" week wrap as sort of a weekly synthesis as well...
I like her...
@ahab
the 29th isn't SET in stone...
the draft date, at this point, is still highly flexible...
how many teams are you looking for-
12?
and I am assuming that CNBCsucks hasn't chimed in to try to continue his dynasty?
lol
I am thinking though- that bergie at the other site may be CNBCsucks or knows how to get in touch w/ him-
if you want some drama!
I'd love it to get to 12...
But I'll live with 10 if I have to...
bergie/CNBC is welcome if he wants...
i'm completely "in" for some FF football. $$ for sure to make it 'meaningful' and keep people 'checked in.'
"$$ for sure to make it 'meaningful' and keep people 'checked in.'"
AT- exactly!
OK then...
We just have to fill the league (a couple more teams will do)...
If we can't get the final 2-3 internally... I'd invite any of you to nominate a friend or a brother or something...
I can do this myself as well...
I'd REALLY like it to get to 12...
NIKKEI is giving up on it's early gains...
Hair on top of that candle...
Siegfried, "cold steel" now??
I would love to play FF with you guys. But, you'll probably tell me to go play with myself.
Good story about borrowers not paying home equity loans http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/12/business/12debt.html?_r=1
Created AUDJPY & EURJPY using individual futures to make a custom instrument. Added the charts above. The candle beyond the black triangle at the bottom of the chart represent the futures market after it reopens.
Hello CV
Sadly Nicole got kicked off this Tuesday technical spot because of CNBC's FOMC coverage but you can download all her daily and weekly technical analysis here:
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/TresInternet/index.htm
Amenra
I love the EURJPY AUDJPY charts, thanks
I love this too:
Judge orders Wells Fargo to change overdraft policy, return $203 million in fees to customers: http://tinyurl.com/29hfazj
Oops better link:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/08/11/ap/business/main6764462.shtml
Nic
Is that KATHERINE knocking on WFCs door?
Sorry about today, Ben. One of our co-location sites suffered multiple simultaneous network outages. Our teams are working on it. We'll have those averages back up tomorrow.
What I am reading:
Fed's rethink policies encouraging home ownership:
http://usat.me/39651232
(I am thinking horse ~ barn door, etc)
Moody's: Money Market Accounts Were in Worse Trouble Than We Thought - Business - The Atlantic: http://bit.ly/9lD2ld
WSJ.com (free article)- U.S. Lawmakers Gear Up to Seek New Yuan Policy, US China trade deficit at 2yr high
http://on.wsj.com/bwoDll
And twitter abuzz cos KRod is being detained at precinct at Citi Field, formally charged with 3rd degree assault.
I don't know who KRod is but sounds interesting
Well, we'll see if we can get to Karen and CV's 106 area. I would prefer to see us slice right through that like we did the 1094-1095 area but I'm not sure it's going to happen on this move., might get the bounce first. Yesterday internally was bad news.
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