Morning Audibles 7.8.10 - Doesn't Add Up


The January correction printed a low of 1044 (on February 6th)... Since then we had the FLASH CRASH (1065), followed by two raps on the door at 1040 and 1042 (which produced mild rallies)... Finally the S&P crashed through the 1040 barrier and closed 4 straight days both UNDER 1040 and UNDER the trend line from the January highs (1150) following through the subsequent low closes...
My question is... Why all the waiting and effort to get through 1040, then, after you finally do it, & doomsday is nigh (you even have the PERMABULLS on Fast Money saying "we're going way way lower"), you have DARK CROSSES, you have debt crises in Europe which haven't been solved, you have NO NEW talk about QE2, aircraft carrier units in the Straits of Hormuz, oil washing into Lake Ponchatrain...

What do you do?... You bust through 1040 (the number everyone was saying needed to be HELD AT ALL COSTS or it was the end of the world)... And then, upon "seeing the other side"? Meh - You mosey around with a few closes in the 1020's, print 1010 for a minute or two, go to a weekend barbecue and you're done with it?
Because Doug Kass says the "bottom is in"? Because of a perky luxury goods number?

Last week, it seemed the PPT was defending 1000 at all costs... Where was the SURGE PROTECTION TEAM on a 3+% up day? And anyway, the call Kass made wasn't until the SPX had regained 1040...
Whatever, these markets seem like a total joke (and probably are), and trying to justify price movements as I'm doing now is certainly an exercise in folly... But that's what we do...

Here it is again... My final take...

SPX UP 3.13% (on low volume)

The volume associated with the 4 "tall white" candlesticks (the ONLY ones which managed to materialize out of the last 32 trading days) was... 500.9 million, 395.5 million, 240 million and 248 million today... And gee, the PRIOR 3 were antecedent to the DARK CROSS...

On the other end... We find...

10 year note @ 2.98

Is there... PERHAPS... Something wrong with this picture?


239 comments:

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mcHAPPY said...

The more I play with the iPad I can't believe people get so caught up in it. Seriously, if I did not get it for free, I would not have it. While it is 'cool' it is hardly earthshattering or revolutionary. I mean, I'm using it as a photo album, movie player at the cabin, and web browser when not at home/work. I'm not sure what the prices are in the US (and I'm too lazy to look) but I know in Canada they are running from $550-800. I think they are overpriced by about 300 on the lower end and 400 on the higher end. Then again, I'm still using my old 2005 Samsung cell phone on a pay-per-use basis - what do I know.

McFearless said...

any cool stock applications McHappy?

mcHAPPY said...

I'm guessing 1090/1 area on the SPX. All those gaps I was yammering about last week are getting filled. Right when I gave up on a bounce shorter term - we had it. Damn you trading gods, damn you.

McFearless said...

they always take longer to complete than you expect, man is that the truth McHappy...part of the reason I stick to the bigger waves.

mcHAPPY said...

@McF

Not sure. My online broker does not have any - yet. They sent out an email yesterday about phishing scams but they were working on them.

Maybe if I go travelling I'll use it then. Here is the app I found at iTunes store:

http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/stockwatch-portfolio-tracking/id288895476?mt=8

CV said...

@McF

I've been telling you...

Pay CASH for everything... Ask for your "change" change in nickels...

@McHappy

CV already has ample supplies of the BASICS... Now I'm onto "non-essentials" like...

- alcohol (vodka, tequila, etc.)
- chocolate bars
- sterno cans (may become handy "barter" instruments)
- KOOL-AID packets
- various hygiene items
- coffee & coffee filters (an amazingly cheap item that is VERY handy)
- Those little shower sponges (you can get like 3 for a buck)... You break them apart and there's like 25 feet of tubular wire netting... (ever see CASTAWAY?)

Stuff like that...

mcHAPPY said...

CV,

I can understand you not throwing an iPad in for your essentials, but to leave it off your "non-essentials" list is like slapping Steve Jobs on the ass like a newborn - totally disrespectful. lol

wunsacon said...

>> CV already has ample supplies of the BASICS

I bought some "Mountain House" long-term food supplies. (Wife thinks I'm nuts. I hope she's right...)

Wes said...

...all those fisherman on the gulf coast with no reported income...buying gold in amounts over $600...eh?

CV said...

@wunsacon

Nice "college try"...

But I'm afraid you'll need more calories (and variety) than that my friend...

CV said...

People buying gold here are morons...

You needed to buy gold in 2000...

Now you need food & fuel...

Pretty soon you'll need ammo...

CV said...

Tilapia bitchez! :-)

Wes said...

you gonna get sick of dat fish cv...

but, at least you will have protein...

wunsacon said...

CV, yeah, I know it isn't nearly enough. I gotta do it slowly enough though not to cause "alarm"... ;-)

What else do you recommend someone living in a 2-bdrm apartment store?? (I'm probably being rhetorical with that question. But, if you have any suggestions, "shoot".)

[Gonna go for a swim...be back later.]

CV said...

@wunsa

Start with the basics...

- rice
- beans
- oil (cooking, olive, peanut, whatever)
- powdered milk
- flour
- sugar
- salt
- coffee
- tea
- canned this & thats (tuna, tomatoes)

You have your calories (carbs, protein, fats) right there...

If you can SEAL it in FOOD SAVER plastic all the better... But make sure you DOUBLE protect it by putting it in plastic bins (the ones you get at WAL MART or anyplace else)... Then... DUCT TAPE the seals on those...

If you leave stuff just lying around (even if it's air & moisture sealed), the mice will chew through and get to it... They can't get through the large bins...

So you SEAL it, then put it in the bins, then seal those...

Most of what I've listed above will have a shelf life of 2-5 years (depending on WHERE it is shelved)... Constant cool temps with low moisture are the best...

That's the best you can do...

CV said...

Good thing is... If TS "doesn't" ever hit the fan, you end up eating everything anyway...

I'm eating rice now that I bought in 2007... Replacing it with NEW bags...

mcHAPPY said...

@CV

Might help you out with the storage: root cellars.

Wes said...

...good strategy cv,

rolling inventory...

just like the grocery store...until it doesn't

Anonymous said...

well . .. was sticking up for Prechter at TBP-

my opinion is that the 1000 Dow is not that far "out there"-

not unprecedented- that's for sure

CV- what? no peanut butter?

Where's the creditcane post?

Wes said...

ahab,

creditecane...what is that?

...a hurricane of credit?

Anonymous said...

hey Wes-

were you at Naked Capitalism the other day messing w/ my mind?

the creditcane was the caption under Ra's image of the hurricane

Wes said...

...ahhh, thanks ahab...i was brain dead as usual. ;-)

no, i was not at Naked Capitalism...

...and, i would never mess with your mind...

remember this - funniest night ever...from TBP, or whatever cv alls him...

# Wes Schott Says:
June 5th, 2009 at 9:42 pm

sorry ahab

but I keep thinking about this, whenever I see your name, your posts are cool…

You can call me Al , Call me Al – Paul Simon song

exchange Al for Ahab. and I am crackin’ up

# call me ahab Says:
June 5th, 2009 at 9:52 pm

“Call me Ahab.” is the first line from the novel “Moby Dick”- look it up-

I have always thought that was the coolest start to any book – and that is why it is my handle- it is a man telling his story-

as we all are


# Wes Schott Says:
June 5th, 2009 at 9:54 pm

sweet

# Marcus Aurelius Says:
June 5th, 2009 at 10:01 pm

uh . . .

. . . not to be up in anybody’s business, or anything, but the opening line to Moby Dick is,


“Call me Ishmael.”

Sorry, Ahab. I’ll still call you Ahab, though. You can call me Al. (Just don’t call me Betty, Shirley, or late for dinner).

Anonymous said...

Wes-

hysterical stuff there my friend- I weathered the storm of criticism(-:!!!!

It's funny though- I posted at NC w/ my usual handle- and lo and behold- some dude posts as "call me ish" and starts busting my balls-

I thought maybe it was you

Wes said...

...funny dude,

not me though...

...that was the funniest ever...you were not really being criticized...just funnin'..a real riot...

Anonymous said...

wes-

that was a funny night-

maybe not criticism- but- definitely some fun was made at my expense-

it's all good- the "call me ahab" handle lives on(-:!!!

Wes said...

...and a bit more

...hmmm June 6th - D-Day,

my wedding anniversary, 28 years, then, 29, now...

# Transor Z Says:
June 6th, 2009 at 1:44 am

Legal employment is hideous at big firms right now. Not just anecdotal. Demonstrably bad.

Fortunately, I have work in some recession “growth areas” to keep the kids in chicken nuggets and french fries.

@Ahab/Ishmael: Maybe consider changing to Call me Mr. Tibbs!
# Whammer Says:

June 6th, 2009 at 2:44 am

@Transor, that’s the second time you’ve cracked me up this week — Mr. Tibbs!

I’m thinking I might change my name to Whammus Ahaberelius in honor of our two compadres….

Wes said...

Onlooker from Troy Says:
June 6th, 2009 at 11:59 am

Dude, you’ve got to be ahab! You can’t change your name now, that would be like renaming your 5 year old kid half way through kindergarten. All the other kids are gonna be very confused. :)

CV said...

NEW THREAD

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