A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
These rogue waves are merciless.
SPXBullish long day. 1041.83 (fibo .09 from high) tested and passed. Still below the SMA(21) and the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the trendline using 2010 lows and below the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. Daily 3LB reversal (reversal now 1022.58). QE2infinity.
DXYSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Back below the 76.4% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 84.72).
VIXBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below weekly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Back below the SMA(55) and the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).
GOLDBullish thrusting day. Below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1240.70).
EURUSDHammer day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). No test of the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) is on hold again. Tested trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10) and passed (again). New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 1.2481).
JNKBullish long day. Tested the 38.2% retrace (passed) but failed the 50.0% retrace test. Back above the SMA(233) and the SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBullish long day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 131.08).
10YR YIELDBullish long day. Midpoint still below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 30.32). Can you say 2.0%? It's coming. Is the Fed getting worried yet? BB is totally bald now.
XRTBullish piercing day. Midpoint still below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.12).
98 comments:
Today's result is exactly the kind of thing I had been fearing for several days now. That was a real ass-torqueing for shorts. The good news for bears is that these kind of massive/violent spikes are usually the sign of bear market bounces. That, and a little vaseline should make shorts who piled in on the neckline break feel better...
1070-1075 should be easy to achieve tomorrow. That level looks like an area to maybe add in a few short if you've kept your powder dry.
Oddly enough they needed a day like today because the SMA(50) is about to incorporate the flash crash and following days of bull destruction.
@Amen (7:06)
That's what I've been re-iterating AD NAUSEUM...
I call it... THE ACCELERATION...
6 days more until the 50 meets that candle...
Frankly, I'm happy as hell (in a way)...
I always wanted to GET VERY SHORT this market at higher levels...
I was only hoping the SEQUENCE would have been a little different...
- I'd really like to have seen a "9" handle first... Then a WICKED 2 stretching all the way, perhaps, to 1150 again...
Instead, it looks like we're going to end up with this faggoty ass trading range...
(a TIGHTER faggoty ass, to boot, which, most likely, pleases NOBODY... Although one would have to search elsewhere for that distinction because I really wouldn't know)...
Whatever...
& BTW
3.5% "up" day?
Where was the SPT "Surge Protection Team"?
If the markets are up 300% tomorrow, I wonder if any circuit breakers will be tripped...
We couldn't ALLOW that to happen now could we?
Please...
Nobody bother answering my (7:38) because I already KNOW the SURGE PROTECTION TEAM...
SPT = Lloyd & Jamie "distributing" their shares to Johnny after the ALL CLEAR signal has been given by Doug Kass...
It's a JOYFUL moment... Which nets just enough to pay for the Labor Day barbecue... Thank you Johnny for your continued patronage to the fine art of "kleptocracy"... (is that a NOBEL category yet)?... No wait, I already know the answer...
CV
Circuit breakers are there to break the "fall" not the climb. The stock market going down is unpatriotic. So sayeth the messiah O and his chief priest BB.
when I was a kid I remember some of the things I wanted to be, police guy, space guy, dj, michael jordan
after my meeting with my client tonight their son was around the table and I said, "what do you want to be when you grow up"
response: Czar
now this didn't actually happen...but you could imagine.
McFear:
Well, I guess I start to get really scared when I hear aspirations like this: "Well, the government pays pretty well and the benefits are great. A good paying government job of some kind would be cool."
@Amen (7:44)
Thanks for clearing that up...
We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming...
TODOS PRESIDENTE... TODOS HOY!
What an effin' Banana Republic we have become overnight...
I resemble that remark!
No... I do!
McFear:
Was there some sort of "falling out" between Daneric and Kenny? I'm noticing that there is no longer a "linkage" between those two sits and they're no longer calling their labeling method "Kenny and Daneric's Labeling"
Andy,
that's mainly scary because in general it is true.
@Andy 8pm
Welcome to Canadian mentality. I'm still young enough where friends are gaining experience to get to their 'dream' or 'ideal' job. Canadian federal government is just about most of these people's dream - and rightfully so: indexed pension, crazy sick leave and vacation, benefits galore, and no accountability for work, or lack thereof, unions rule.
oh yeah dude, kenny and dan, they had a huge blowout about two weeks ago.
kenny accused dan of copying his site, stealing charts, making odd comments on his blog...I'm not sure where all of that came from so I just keep looking at both of their charts.
b22-
a real Czar- as in Emperor of Russia- that would be pretty cool- as long as your last name is not Romanov-
but these appointed Czars- quite worthless- like that war on drugs- hasn't worked out real well- people still seem quite ready to use those mind altering substances at every chance-must be something to that mind altering experience that people crave-
AT-
speaking of USG jobs- we're turning into the Roman Empire- those jobs are the most protected and rewarded-
politician's trip all over themselves to make sure public unions get raises and healthy benefits to ensure electoral victory
alright, who did that comment at 8:04, that's a classic there....I
and AT, good call on the busted H&S....
The only issue is something I think Ben mentioned today: on the way down will it be a B wave or the start of the big one?
If minute 1 ended at 1010 it would be 120 points. 1.618 of 120 is 194. If it dies at 1070, 194 minus this is..... 876.
I find it amazing how when doing up scenarios or actual events, I/others keep coming back to the same numbers +/- 1 or 2.
oh right, and the chart labels were another thing apparently, I think it was said Dan changed his labels so nobody noticed he stole the charts....
McHappy, lets just watch the retrace, if it does more than 50% the whole idea of the impulsive P3 down having started needs to be set aside for now. What they label as 2 retraced 50%, so we can't have ii of 3 going more than that....it makes no sense, so the real problem here is I think there are highly valid counts that point to the 1098 area and therefore put a huge dent in the idea of P3 right now
Oh yeah. Meant to mention I got an iPad yesterday. I didn't pay for it though and it was only the base model/16GB. Cute little gadget though. I can see the initial appeal as it is a nice device but don't think it is worth the cash. I'll probably use it as a pretty cool photo album and movie player for trips.
@Ben
Yeah, I'm pretty bummed with EWI right now. I just don't like the "We forecasted that..." when right and the "Let's make no reference to being wrong..." when not. That is the nature of their business though.
ahab,
no doubt on the czars, but hey, job growth in that czar sector, which is a positive for the
e
c o n
o
m e
McHappy,
yeah, you just have to live with that with EWI because they are a big marketing machine. they do it constantly, it's all good, readers know the real deal.
thing is, could either you or me name any outfit on wall street that doesn't do the same exact thing?
nobody comes to mind on my end...
@Karen, Earth quake in your area? Hope you'r Ok
@mcHappy
I agree with ben (8:20)...
I don't want to jump the gun here...
But I'm fine with a 1071-2 ish tomorrow... I hope it happens...
All I can say is this...
I'm not a WAVER, but I listen to you guys... And all these "moves" for the past 45 days have been crystalizing the scenario every day (as we speak)...
It's a good reason to keep powder dry...
And that's why, earlier, I was rolling my eyes towards the notion that making any BANK on todays move was nothing more than a lucky coin flip...
A REAL "home gamer" better bring more to the ballpark than what they bagged today...
Just saying...
another thought tonight, the Fast Money segment about hedging your portfolio was once again a good indicator, right DL?
@McF
Yeah... Wasn't GRASSO just saying, like, a DAY ago...
We're going MUCH MUCH LOWER... (dude)...
Now THAT's some FAST MONEY!
http://globalastrologyblog.blogspot.com/
Good mundane astrology blog. Lots of content.
CV
I think i figured out what was bugging me about his use of GNP in that story. The easiest way to get more GNP bang for your buck is to devalue the dollar. Dollar down, exports and GDP up. This also pushes up the value of holdings out of the country. The second part is where he would get the most bang for his buck.
the Fast Money segment about hedging your portfolio
I mean really- who are this show's audience?
I find that comment almost comical- just like the title of the show "Fast Money"
Bald guys with pony tails AND beards, very bad.
CV,
yep, that's exactly what he said, he said "the break of 1044 tells me we are going a lot lower" literally two days before the April peak he laughed at the notion of doing anything to protect one's long portfolio.
that is some fast money (losses)
CV is going to re-iterate...
SPX UP 3.13% (on low volume)
The volume associated with the 4 "tall white" candlesticks (the ONLY ones which managed to materialize out of the last 32 trading days) was... 500.9 million, 395.5 million, 240 million and 248 million today... And gee, the PRIOR 3 were antecedent to the DARK CROSS...
On the other end... We find...
10 year note @ 2.98
Is there... PERHAPS... Something wrong with this picture?
Dougie K?... DL?... Please "chime in" at will...
Bob-
also GNP nor GDP take into account destruction, depletion, environmental degradation, scarcity-
look at Katrina- by all measures New Orleans was a boom town after the storm
@bob (8:49)
Valid...
Problem is... With the exception of this minor "corrective" phase we happen to be in...
BUCKY ain't going down for a bit (in aggregate, from where CV stands)...
Ahab, I agree. The way the "super fund" was set up is a great example of this. All of the spending on cleaning up those messes gets tacked onto "growth".
beards in general I'm thinking are trouble, which is a shame because I like to grow one for the holidays:
the wizard, krugman, stiglitz, galbraith,brian wesbury had a goatee at one point, .... janet reno
I could name more
then again gandalf had a beard
then there is this site:
http://www.beards.org/
@McF
Actually... I think FATTY (grasso means "fatty" in Italian) is right...
He's just not FAST MONEY... He's WRONG & SLOW money...
Bad for TV...
I love these guys... If not for them, how would CV ever be able to "capitalize" on their ineptness and sell high paying NET JET advertising to fund a blogspace? :-)
CV
Agreed, but I see that piece as an argument for devaluing the dollar. I don't think it would work, or that it should be done.
New high on the EURUSD.
bob,
thanks for that link 8:46.
MCF
someone sent that too me last week. It's a really good jumping off point too, and they have an RP picture there now.
@McF
I was going for the "goatee"... I needed another few days...
exactly bob- (sounds like from the Bob Newhart show- the original w/ Suzanne Pleschette (sp?))
GDP- doesn't matter from where or what consequences- whether cleaning up after a natural disaster or USG stimulus-
in the latter case of course the hope is it gets everyone back on the borrow and spend hamster wheel-
because that's great for GDP
bob,
that is a good way boost things in theory, just so long as nobody else is trying to devalue their own currency...these damn markets tend to get in the way of the best plans like that....evil speculators trying to lose their shirts and all.
GDP continued to grow in Japan during a deflationary collapse...
@bob
IMHO
With respect to dollar "devaluation" (in this period)... I'll go out on a limb here and GUESS that BUCKY will be relatively strong here for the next several years...
But after...
It's going to be VERY BAD for Americans...
Frankly - I don't even BLAME the current cast of characters (READ: politicians) for letting that happen...
Why?
Most of them can't see past their own dicks so it would be impossible for them EVER to see what they're bringing about...
We'll just have to muddle along as we go...
Ever thankful for their ultimate BEING-NESS...
@ahab
Suzanne Pleschette was HOT!
Thanks for remembering CV!
CV
I agree. I've been reading a lot on the history of england at the turn of the century leading into WWI/II. Very similar. Being a good trader (both sides) was key in surviving.
I love this quote-
“You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.” Winston Churchill
Suzanne Pleschette was a guaranteed a two pack a day smoker
bob-
Cecil Rhodes quoted around the turn of the last century-
Remember that you are an Englishman, and have consequently won first prize in the lottery of life.
how true is that now?
I can envision we are at that point where we might not do the right thing
"The will to prepare to win is far more important than the will to win.”
Bobby Knight.
Thanks again for the site, CV.
BinT,
Contributions are always welcome.
@BinT (9:51)
That's an EXCELLENT quote/thought...
Why didn't I think of something like that?
However... THE CHAIR THROWING gig? CV is very 'versed' on that...
I always hated Bobby Knight until he started doing the play by play for ESPN. He's the best there is, 5 minutes ahead of everyone else.
I wonder if there is any socionomics implications to the fact that Eminem back again....
His lyrics isn't exactly American Idol material....
-AT
Bobby Knight was a friggin' genius.
He's of the Bill Parcells ilk. They were master motivators/intimidators....
It's great when it works....blows up a bit when it stops working....
You talkin 2 me?
CV
Find your ulcer medication before you read this. Someone thinks TWSWB is a better forecaster than RP:
http://blogs.forbes.com/digitalrules/2010/07/insane-bulls-and-bears/?partner=rich_karlgaard_newsletter
OK wavers, there is a cute Aussie waver whose blog I read who is bullish. He doesn't have many followers and he only does the S&P and the ASX but an alternative perspective is always healthy right?
http://www.tradeyourwayout.com/
@Nic
Thanks cutie... :-)
All CV has to say is?
FOOD (which CV is a "fan" of, BTW)
Gotta get... NOW... to CV's "first" 2010 MOCK NFL DRAFT...
Just so these "Survivor Capitalists" KNOW who REALLY calls the shots in the NFL this year...
CV's "pick" #1
4th pick (in draft)... RAY RICE
So far... It's EARLY... But these "mugs" aren't all that stupid...
I'm impressed...
Updates coming...
Pick #2 (21st)
PEYTON MANNING
Tough pick at that level...
These dudes are SERIOUS...
The men who want to be roubini include Prechter?
What a clueless dolt. Roubini wasn't even heard when Prechter was called guru of the decade. I'm not saying you should "trade" for total collapse, but look, this article is terrible... Prechter was all in 200% short for 2008, slightly early on this call in 07 which you could factor out of your 08 profits, he told you to cover all shorts February 2009, he was early on one call that is currently out of the money at this point in going short again toward the top of the 2009 rally, his last call timing the top in April perfectly thus far.
Fusion IQ's portfolio was down some 16% in 2008 to my knowledge, I highly doubt the 2009 performance was enough to overcome Prechters.
If this guy can't get the history of Prechter correct and is going to treat a call that he made nearly a decade ago about the dow as "coming out of the woodwork" then I may as well just focus on the short term performance of everyone mentioned...
there is nothing else that needs to be said especially coming from some guy that called for DOW 18k in 2007, but "made up for it by calling the low in March 09 and the top in April"
#26
DE SEAN JACKSON...
It's getting hard around here... Didn't expect that!
It's easy to grin
When your ship comes in
And you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile,
Is the man who can smile,
When his shorts are too tight in the seat.
-Ted Knight
OK... Now I'm out of my mind becaue I'm taking VERNON DAVIS in the 4th round...
The NEW rules have a 30 second pick...
Absurd...
VINCENT JACKSON #52
Hope he signs!?
Unrealistic... this 30 second draft...
Like effin SPEED DATING...
"Oh yeah... I'm gonna find the girl/guy of my dreams in less than a minute"...
JOKE... (kinda like the 2008 elections)...
PIERRE GARCON #70
Go figure!
Nic,
I've seen a few other people mention that count on the S&P from your 10:56, we'll know very shortly if that can be taken off the table or not,
eff it...
I'll take JAHVID BEST at #61...
OK that's it...
7 places (& a total friggin farce)... It's only a MOCK so WTF?
kinda like S&P "longs" today...
Have a nice SEASON... (or 2-3 "weeks", as the case may be) :-)...
@wunsacon
CLASSIC
Only ROYALTY, such as "friends of yours" could or would EVER know how to PROPERLY christen...
THE FLYING WASP...
:-)
@wunsacon
Don't get me confused with TED KNIGHT
I'm a huge Ted Knight fan, just on the strength of that one performance. ;-)
@wunsacon
For ALL to enjoy...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGpQej3o9eo
@wunsacon
or...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdVBhPvQ9_g&feature=PlayList&p=2C8F7F78126C5117&playnext_from=PL&playnext=1&index=5
or...(CV's favorite)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zrpx4NAtsFQ&feature=PlayList&p=2C8F7F78126C5117&playnext_from=PL&index=3&playnext=2
"You'll get NOTHING (& like it)"
But...
as for today's rally?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PmMFaVzbzc&feature=related
A few interesting links:
Heh, more "Prohibition II" insanity?
http://www.welovecostarica.com/public/46_US_Warships_Plus_7000_US_Marines_On_Route_To_Costa_Rica.cfm
More QE? But, when?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/07/AR2010070705100.html?hpid=topnews
Does the BIS normally accept other collateral for swaps? If so, I wonder what it means for them to accept gold. Does that mean they didn't trust the other assets the other party (a central banker) ight've offered?
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/07/280181/some-bistoric-gold-swaps/
Still didn't break the trend line using the 2010 lows...
I imagine most of you folks read Mish. (I do, religiously.) That article about raises in Illinois is nuts.
This election is going to come down to: public employees vs private employees. At least, for me...
http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/07/news/economy/credit_delinquencies/index.htm
Credit card delinquencies fall to 8-year low
"Consumers are doing a much better job managing their finances, building their savings and spending and borrowing less," ABA Chief Economist James Chessen said.
....Good. But, where does this lead? Borrowing less? I guess if I were on Wall Street I'd charecterize this as more money on the sidelines......
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=bdiy&exch=IND&x=15&y=11
Value
2,018.00
The Baltic Dry Index is now below the "all-time" low of the Great Recession. And the IMF is raising potential growth rates?
Economics is hard. Fixing oil leaks is easy....
Are you guys awake already? Can someone tell me what the term GIB as used on this blog means?
I mustn't have had enough to do at work today as this was bugging me!
Ta Bertie
Bertie
GIB = Global Idiot Bubble
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38143719/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/
Retailers post tepid June sales, start discounts
Shoppers buying mostly deeply discounted clothing amid job worries
Anyone use clearwire? My unlimited data connect plan is getting capped at 5GB. Running stock quotes everyday will send you over 5GB/month easily. So it's time to dump the current plan and switch to a truly unlimited plan.
AR
If you can get FIOS it is one of the best.
dslreports.com is a good place to look for reviews.
AmenRa, are you running stock quotes from a fat client trading platform? Or are you loading web pages with quotes (sometimes with Flash ads) on them?
NEW THREAD
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