TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 7.8.10

Morning Audibles 7.8.10 - Doesn't Add Up

The January correction printed a low of 1044 (on February 6th)... Since then we had the FLASH CRASH (1065), followed by two raps on the door at 1040 and 1042 (which produced mild rallies)... Finally the S&P crashed through the 1040 barrier and closed 4 straight days both UNDER 1040 and UNDER the trend line from the January highs (1150) following through the subsequent low closes...

My question is... Why all the waiting and effort to get through 1040, then, after you finally do it, & doomsday is nigh (you even have the PERMABULLS on Fast Money saying "we're going way way lower"), you have DARK CROSSES, you have debt crises in Europe which haven't been solved, you have NO NEW talk about QE2, aircraft carrier units in the Straits of Hormuz, oil washing into Lake Ponchatrain...

What do you do?... You bust through 1040 (the number everyone was saying needed to be HELD AT ALL COSTS or it was the end of the world)... And then, upon "seeing the other side"? Meh - You mosey around with a few closes in the 1020's, print 1010 for a minute or two, go to a weekend barbecue and you're done with it?

Because Doug Kass says the "bottom is in"? Because of a perky luxury goods number?

Last week, it seemed the PPT was defending 1000 at all costs... Where was the SURGE PROTECTION TEAM on a 3+% up day? And anyway, the call Kass made wasn't until the SPX had regained 1040...

Whatever, these markets seem like a total joke (and probably are), and trying to justify price movements as I'm doing now is certainly an exercise in folly... But that's what we do...

Here it is again... My final take...

SPX UP 3.13% (on low volume)

The volume associated with the 4 "tall white" candlesticks (the ONLY ones which managed to materialize out of the last 32 trading days) was... 500.9 million, 395.5 million, 240 million and 248 million today... And gee, the PRIOR 3 were antecedent to the DARK CROSS...

On the other end... We find...

10 year note @ 2.98

Is there... PERHAPS... Something wrong with this picture?

239 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 239 Newer› Newest»

BinT said...: Continuing unemployment claims fell sharply...now, just why do you suppose that is?

The CEO of one of our local hospitals sent us all a letter yesterday. They lost 1.1 million dollars in June, and laid off 25 employees yesterday. The letter says they hope to bring them back within 90 days.; July 8, 2010 at 8:49 AM
CV said...: Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased 21,000 Last Week to 454,000

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFtaA.my83Hk&pos=1

So now, because unemployment benefits have expired and therefore JOBLESS CLAIMS numbers improve as result, this is hailed as POSITIVE?

rally in stocks!; July 8, 2010 at 8:50 AM
wunsacon said...: AmenRa, not sure this helps your situation. But, I recommend some items to anyone running Firefox.
Cut down on bandwidth consumed by advertising:
Flash Block
Ad Block
and for security (though it at first gets in the way of your normal browsing):
No Script; July 8, 2010 at 8:59 AM
mcHAPPY said...: 1070 area should be a lot of fun:

1) if 1067 is counted at the bottom of 1 of minute 1, then we could still be in a fourth wave. As long as we close under 1067 this is still on the table.

2) .5 retracement off 1131-1010 is - you guessed it - 1070.

Today should be quite interesting.

Ideal situation: touch 1070, down to sub-1000, back up to 1044, again, lol.; July 8, 2010 at 9:13 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Also, EWI made reference to this last night, but the explosion off 1044 yesterday was undoubtedly a lot of short covering. Many flat the market waiting seems like a good time to pack it in.; July 8, 2010 at 9:14 AM
Anonymous said...: ...Local News...

"blah,blah, blah... jobless aid dropped by 21,000, blah, blah, blah... layoffs are slowing, blah, blah, blah,...signs of the economy stablizing, blah, blah, blah"

Nothing about the 100's of thousands losing their unemployment benefits.; July 8, 2010 at 9:17 AM
wunsacon said...: Not sure what to make of this:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/08/281356/commercial-bank-gold-swap-intrigue-continues/

Is it possible that parties are starting to exchange gold as collateral (in whatever interbank financing deals) in order to avoid counterparty risk???; July 8, 2010 at 9:17 AM
AmenRa said...: bob and wunsacon (from previous thread):

I use Investor R/T with data from IQFeed. Somehow I went over 5GB in a few days this month. No such thing as grandfathered in on the Laptop Data Connect plans. They removed the soft cap and made it a hard cap. So to hell with them. Currently looking at Clearwire 4G network and plans.; July 8, 2010 at 9:22 AM
CV said...: @Amen

Or you could always tie a string between two tomato cans...; July 8, 2010 at 9:25 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

Argh Argh Argh!; July 8, 2010 at 9:34 AM
CV said...: 5 green 1 min candles; July 8, 2010 at 9:36 AM
spoonman said...: haha, maybe we hit Ben's 1098 today...; July 8, 2010 at 9:38 AM
CV said...: Bloomberg:

Stocks rise for 3rd day on "economic outlook"...

Just in case anyone was curious...; July 8, 2010 at 9:39 AM
bob said...: AR

I don't have much time this morning, on the way out the door, but I find it amazing that you do what you do with a wireless connection.

No way to get a wire? Latency would be a lot better.

I'll leave a comment at your place with a contact. I can try to help, but honestly I don't have that much experience with wireless.; July 8, 2010 at 9:41 AM
karen said...: morning! not a good one.. went back to bed before the open.. : )
couldn't stay away, tho.. guess we had a rev split on drv?

U.S. stock indexes push toward early 1% gains, keying on better reading on jobless claims
07/08/2010 09:42:52 AM

the above reminds me of what Andy always said.. the number has to go down as there will be no one left to loose their job..; July 8, 2010 at 9:53 AM
CV said...: Did anybody check this out? :-)

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cnbc-guest-says-absent-plunge-protection-team-stepping-market-would-fall-wien-kernan-disgust; July 8, 2010 at 9:53 AM
karen said...: Bottom line: the market is rallying from oversold conditions, but the risk trade is over.

Read more: http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/jim-bianco-expects-retrenchment-of-stocks.html?; July 8, 2010 at 9:59 AM
Nic said...: Morning
1077/1079 is the descending trendline resistance from the highs for S&P; July 8, 2010 at 10:00 AM
McFearless said...: little busy this morning, bought a little more short today at 1070.....; July 8, 2010 at 10:04 AM
CV said...: @Nic

I think anything in this 1070-1080 range might make a good entry...

I was looking back on DAILY charts going back to last September (when the SPX first "topped out" at 1071)...

After any pullback under that level, the candle basically did a GAP up move...

- October
- November
- February

...and just recently a GAP DOWN

Draw a rectangular box around that 1071 area with a few handles either way and you'll see what I mean...

Therefore, I would not be surprised to see at least one attempt to break free to the upside on that level (as the market did on OPEX Friday in June at the 1116-1131 levels)...

A fail there might mean the end... And in this case, it might be hard to get past, say 1080 (18 less than 1098)...

JTOL; July 8, 2010 at 10:07 AM
karen said...: if i see one me h&s... they're everywhere! rounded out my drv to an 1k... i hate those rev splits!; July 8, 2010 at 10:08 AM
AmenRa said...: btw the corner will be late again today...; July 8, 2010 at 10:11 AM
McFearless said...: couple thoughts:

1. If I recall correctly the claims number was in the 450k range a few months back for a while.....today's data is a big so what in my book, as if we can really properly count claims weekly, and as if the number won't be revised

2. there is a growing chorus of people that are coming out again to speak agains the dollar

3. many of the typical bulltards that show up when the market goes up like it did yesterday were out in full force "long and strong"

4. I sense a great desire amongst pundits to fit all of the market action into a neat little box that comes out looking "like the 70's" .... it is recency effect, but recessions like markets follow guidelines of alteration....; July 8, 2010 at 10:13 AM
wunsacon said...: On a weekly chart for the past 2 years, does HYG look like it's been in a bear wedge for about the past 3 months?

Ech...Time to head off to the salt mine. Will check back tonite... Later, folks.; July 8, 2010 at 10:17 AM
CV said...: @McF

I'm going to add a #5.

Going back to the DARK CROSS... Look at the behavior of that during the decade 2000-2010...

In 2000 & 2007 it was bad and led to a long bear market...

2004 and 2006 we had crosses that "crossed right back"...

I think there some kind of LAST HOPE out there that we can get a 2004 or 2006 type of situation going...

From a pure "technical" standpoint, it's really the only thing to hope for (if you're a BULL)...

Fundamentally, of course, we are exponentially worse off than 2000, 2004, 2006, OR 2008...; July 8, 2010 at 10:19 AM
karen said...: sorry if this was mentioned already but DIA neatly filled june 29 gap on this morning's pop.. look at this morning's daily spy candle..; July 8, 2010 at 10:20 AM
mcHAPPY said...: "The Decision" tonight is definitely providing a good distraction as well. Hopefully Dumb Money is talking about hot long stock picks tonight.; July 8, 2010 at 10:22 AM
McFearless said...: also, with regards to sentiment, from my perch bulls are making the same mistake bears did in 2009, treating every bullish reading as a "sign" that we have to turn the other way.

I've watched sentiment hardcore for a long time, it needs to reach extremes, and then it often hovers around those extremes for quite some time, the only place I don't see it play this way as often is in commodities.

Examples:

We saw 2% dollar bulls in late August 2009, an all-time low for the DSI survey, the dollar took a few more months to bottom, we saw huge bullish sentiment on the dollar this year, but it happened about 2 months before it put in this last top. The Euro did the same in reverse over the period.

We saw 3% DSI bulls on S&P in late 2008, we didn't bottom for another six months almost, at the lows an all-time record low bullish 2% on the S&P, a mere 1% difference from six months earlier....we saw 92% bulls on the S&P via DSI in September 2009, we didn't top until April 2010 though, prior to June of 2007, there never was once a 90%+ bullish reading on DSI for the S&P, even then we got the reading in June, and didn't top out until October 07 as everyone knows, we stayed up there in the 90% bullish range for months during this rally, it only dropped below very quickly for the Jan/early Feb sell-off this year, and then marched right back up there into April.

There are countless examples of what I'm talking about here, lets not get caught up in the silly talk about sentiment.; July 8, 2010 at 10:23 AM
McFearless said...: CV,

Here is something richard russell brought up last night that should make the gold bugs very happy...check out the idea of the dark cross...or lack of...on gold.; July 8, 2010 at 10:25 AM
I-Man said...: Morning Capitalists!; July 8, 2010 at 10:27 AM
CV said...: Yo brah...; July 8, 2010 at 10:28 AM
CV said...: @McF

Just looked... or Silver; July 8, 2010 at 10:30 AM
BinT said...: Morning I-Man!

Key Factors

While we continue to hope that the latest move is a sign of a continued downward trend, we are still very skeptical as the data point to more or less the same type of movement that we have seen since the middle of November 2009.
The four-week moving average has stayed between 460,000 and 470,000 since the end of May as one week’s downward move is quickly reversed during the following week. We anticipate that this will continue over the next several weeks.
However, the move in the continuing claims level does not point to payroll gains and instead is most likely due to an increased expiration rate.
More importantly, the emergency benefit level has been in a free fall over the past several weeks as the level dropped 367,948 for the week ending June 19, which is in-line with last week’s announcement that 3.3 mln emergency benefits are scheduled to expire by the end of July.
Unless Congress can agree to extend the emergency benefits payouts, we could see a significant decline in income in both June and July. Since jobless benefits have been a major source of income stability over the past several months, the lost benefits will have adverse effects on our consumption forecasts.

.....From Briefing.com about the jobless claims this morning...Even B.C thinks we are now addicted to government monies...what seems unsaid is that the private sector is still bracing for 2011.; July 8, 2010 at 10:30 AM
CV said...: $COMP hasn't "crossed" yet (but it looks like it's about to)...

I wonder what Doug Kass will have to say about that when it happens... He was saying to run into "technology" as a high beta...; July 8, 2010 at 10:32 AM
McFearless said...: what up I, how's the mini world today?; July 8, 2010 at 10:34 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

Yeah... What side of the ball are you on today?; July 8, 2010 at 10:38 AM
McFearless said...: oh give me a break already, all over the web is Warren's "best advice ever given to me"

love, lovey, love

now you can take that to the bank folks....; July 8, 2010 at 10:41 AM
I-Man said...: Tried both once so far...

Dont have much to work with yet trendwise...

Market cant seem to figure that out either.

I was thinking trend higher day earlier, but now I'm not so sure.

We made it up so fast, I think the market has indigestion.; July 8, 2010 at 10:42 AM
I-Man said...: How beautiful did Spain look yesterday?!

They surgically destroyed Germany...; July 8, 2010 at 10:44 AM
McFearless said...: well, as I was saying last night if this was ii of 3 down then we shouldn't retrace more than 50% because of the size of the retrace of wave 2, this means the highs today should stick.

I'm skeptical of this count as I said yesterday because there are legit targets above in the 1090-1100 range.; July 8, 2010 at 10:45 AM
Thurston Howell III said...: WB has nothing on me...; July 8, 2010 at 10:47 AM
I-Man said...: Yeah, I'm kinda thinking we'll see a few hundred pts higher on the YM. Maybe back to 10,200 on the dow cash... but probably some consolidation to occur between now and then.

Monday looks like it might end up being a day of trend convergence... also the day after the new moon.; July 8, 2010 at 10:48 AM
I-Man said...: Probably just triangle out until about 11:30 east coast time.; July 8, 2010 at 10:51 AM
McFearless said...: new moon + total solar eclipse on 7/11.; July 8, 2010 at 10:51 AM
McFearless said...: oh, and I'm on team edward....; July 8, 2010 at 10:51 AM
McFearless said...: I,

do you see the mini's busted out of the up channel right now?; July 8, 2010 at 10:52 AM
CV said...: Today is also one of those Bradley Siderograph days...; July 8, 2010 at 10:53 AM
McFearless said...: Ra,

curious, did you play any options to the upside going into today, as in July expy?; July 8, 2010 at 10:53 AM
I-Man said...: which timeframe ben?; July 8, 2010 at 10:54 AM
I-Man said...: actually... I dont have any channels on my YM charts right now, so no.

Havent updated my ES charts since last week.; July 8, 2010 at 10:56 AM
Anonymous said...: 1062 is like... hey wait, get back here. You need to visit me for a while before you go talk to 1080. And, no way in hell are you going to visit 1098 any time soon without a longer visit. Oh, and by the way, 1044 is kinda pissed that you didn't stay the night last night. Yesterday, you just blew through town like you had some place important to go to.; July 8, 2010 at 10:57 AM
McFearless said...: it's all good I.... know a lot of bulls want that gap closed at 1074....; July 8, 2010 at 10:58 AM
AmenRa said...: Ben

I thought about it but didn't. Opex has lost some of its bullish momentum the pat few months.; July 8, 2010 at 11:00 AM
McFearless said...: man....calling the high today the top of C of ii does have a decent look to it....we'll see. I think Andy had it yesterday, keep your powder dry and take some kind of shot in the 1070's....; July 8, 2010 at 11:01 AM
I-Man said...: I think we have a tradable dip here... not sure tho. Just bagged a modest short, but looking to get long now, just waiting for it to walk into my limit.; July 8, 2010 at 11:10 AM
AmenRa said...: The finviz.com home page is pretty good even though it's not continuous because it refreshes.; July 8, 2010 at 11:16 AM
I-Man said...: I love the news page on finviz... 1 stop shoppin.

:); July 8, 2010 at 11:17 AM
18 said...: anyone ever think about doing EW using the major or minor "18" numbers? Or is it possible.

major - every 3rd 18 level
minor - every 18 level; July 8, 2010 at 11:27 AM
McFearless said...: 18,

I'm working on it....; July 8, 2010 at 11:31 AM
mcHAPPY said...: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/msg-shares-hit-on-lebron-james-news-2010-07-08

This is pretty funny. The sad part is this is the same type of 'reporting' the MSM uses to 'report' financial news on a daily basis - rumours, gossip, and innuendo.; July 8, 2010 at 11:33 AM
CV said...: Wells Fargo plans to cut 3,800 jobs.

Wells Fargo and jobs cut as 638 offices to be closed. More than 3,800 jobs will be eliminated as Wells Fargo plans to restructure its consumer finance unit. In addition, Wells Fargo plans to cut 2,800 positions in the next two months, and another 1,000 jobs will be eliminated next year.

The San Francisco-based bank is consolidating Wells Fargo Financial into its community banking network. The company says 638 independent consumer finance offices will be closed as a result. In addition, Wells Fargo said it will no longer originate non-prime mortgage loans.

http://www.newsoxy.com/business/wells-fargo-and-jobs-13686.html; July 8, 2010 at 11:38 AM
CV said...: Of course, the above headline wasn't important enough to make it to a Bloomberg or CNBC front page news item...; July 8, 2010 at 11:40 AM
karen said...: A typical bounce? for the typical recovery..; July 8, 2010 at 11:43 AM
CV said...: Here's what's on Bloomberg (as Wells Frago is cutting 3,800 jobs)...

- U.S. June Retail Sales Advance as Warm Weather, Bargains Attract Shoppers

- Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased More Than Estimated Last Week to 454,000

- Trichet Says Europe's Economy Stronger Than Some Outside Investors Think

- Stocks, Oil Gain on IMF Outlook Boost, Jobs Data; July 8, 2010 at 11:44 AM
I-Man said...: Uptrend seems to be running out of steam... going to start looking at shorts.; July 8, 2010 at 11:44 AM
I-Man said...: Could get a little pre-lunch waterfall action here...

Get your trunks on.; July 8, 2010 at 11:48 AM
CV said...: BDI in freefall & look at Natty Gastoday...

What is wrong about this picture?; July 8, 2010 at 11:50 AM
mcHAPPY said...: I can't believe I'm so fixated on LeBron but here is a thought:

Would it be insider trading if LeBron bought a bunch of MSG stock, leaked rumours he was signing, sold stock for profit, shorted stock, then leaked rumours he was going/staying elsewhere?; July 8, 2010 at 11:57 AM
I-Man said...: LeBron's going to the Blazers!

(psych); July 8, 2010 at 12:02 PM
CV said...: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCZyRaFo5vM; July 8, 2010 at 12:03 PM
karen said...: another for the UFB file:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2010/07/geithner-obama-capital-gains-dividend-tax-rates-kudlow.html; July 8, 2010 at 12:30 PM
McFearless said...: Lebron could be a hero to the state of Ohio and the whole country, I realize Cleveland even if he took a pay CUT, they don't have much room to move around this year...but could you imagine how people would love him if he said:

"I want to win more than anything in the world. I make a lot of money outside the game, I want to win so bad, and the the city of Cleveland means so much to me, the state where I grew up means so much to me, that I will sacrifice my pay so that we can build a team and bring a title home"

I think the idea of sacrifice would mean a lot to the masses....; July 8, 2010 at 12:30 PM
McFearless said...: “We’re going to make sure that we keep at 20% the existing rates on dividends and capital gains,” Geithner said. “We think that’s good policy.”

How is it possible the Treasury Sec. doesn't know what the top cap gains rate actually is?

How?; July 8, 2010 at 12:31 PM
Nic said...: ZH say market talk DeutscheBank has failed stress test.; July 8, 2010 at 12:38 PM
karen said...: are we fatigued yet?!; July 8, 2010 at 12:43 PM
I-Man said...: Nah... havent even eaten breakfast yet...

:); July 8, 2010 at 12:44 PM
karen said...: a great read posted at ZH:

The Rats are Cornered

This email will be pretty brief as I am still getting used to getting back to the fake world. Although I did work a little every day and kept up with the major news both financial and otherwise I am certainly behind on the details. This is how I would summarize what has gone on and where we are headed. The stimulus and gimmicks initiated by a desperate political class prodded on by our Keynesian witch-doctors Summers and Geithner ran their course and at the end of that road was a massive pile of debt, chronic unemployment, a populace that doesn’t believe or trust anything the government says or does and a housing market set to resume its downward spiral. So basically the forces of deflation have taken over once again. Banana Ben Bernanke knows it and he knows what he wants to do about it. He wants to print so much money it would make your head spin. He wants to drop nuclear bombs of QE2 all over this great land. That is his answer to everything. The man is 100% insane according to Einstein’s definition. I quote: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."; July 8, 2010 at 12:45 PM
Nic said...: Meredith Whitney cuts Goldman 2010 EPS estimate from $20 to $15.70/share; July 8, 2010 at 12:49 PM
karen said...: sorry.. that post was from another goldbug..; July 8, 2010 at 12:49 PM
McFearless said...: man....that 1070 level proved to be some stiff resistance eh?; July 8, 2010 at 12:58 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

12:45

it's all playing out like the deflationists have been saying it would yes?; July 8, 2010 at 12:59 PM
I-Man said...: uh-oh... Lil Wayne just popped up on the ipod...

Thats a major short signal imo...

Not sure how to quant that tho.; July 8, 2010 at 12:59 PM
I-Man said...: "Fingernails dirty... been countin dirty money since 12:30..."

"I tote a toolbox, its hammer time."; July 8, 2010 at 1:01 PM
Anonymous said...: "McFearless said...
How is it possible the Treasury Sec. doesn't know what the top cap gains rate actually is?

How?"

It's a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.; July 8, 2010 at 1:02 PM
mcHAPPY said...: "McFearless said...
How is it possible the Treasury Sec. doesn't know what the top cap gains rate actually is?

How?"

It's a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma."

I thought it was an easy answer: the guy doesn't pay taxes so why would he know?; July 8, 2010 at 1:09 PM
Tiny Tim said...: Only the little people pay taxes.

Yes I know I am short.; July 8, 2010 at 1:10 PM
co-president Pelosi said...: The top tax rate on capital gains is going to 40% if I have anything to say about it.; July 8, 2010 at 1:13 PM
McFearless said...: more good news for employment, it just never stops:

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100708-709340.html

"In the first phase, announced in February, Merck said it would reduce its global work force by 15% by the end of 2012--or about 15,000 employees based on Merck's head count of 100,000 as of Dec. 31. This was expected to account for about $2.6 billion to $3 billion of the targeted cost savings."; July 8, 2010 at 1:17 PM
karen said...: US Retail

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/4aa40b92-8a99-11df-bd2e-00144feab49a.html; July 8, 2010 at 1:19 PM
arbitrage789 said...: from the WSJ link provided by McF @ 1:17:

“The site closings …illustrate attempts by major pharmaceutical companies to control costs as they grapple with drug patent expirations and low research productivity”

. . . . . . . .

A point worth noting for those people who think that the U.S. government can reduce pharma company profits, without any adverse effects.; July 8, 2010 at 1:22 PM
CV said...: @Pelosi

You're going to get 40% of the vote and lose your congressional seat if I have anything to say about it...; July 8, 2010 at 1:35 PM
karen said...: Stocks Struggle to Extend GainsU.S. Markets are open. 2 hours and 24 minutes until close.
The stock market surged in the prior session without any clear catalyst, but stocks have since struggled to extend the move despite some encouraging data.; July 8, 2010 at 1:37 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

check out the chart on GPS today....then compare to ANF.; July 8, 2010 at 1:37 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Pelosi probably wins her district in a landslide. Might even be unchallenged.; July 8, 2010 at 1:38 PM
Huey Lewis said...: I want a new drug; July 8, 2010 at 1:38 PM
CV said...: Goes to show you what a bunch of morons she represents...; July 8, 2010 at 1:39 PM
McFearless said...: re: euro stress tests.

remember the market after our nonsense stress tests?

which btw, we blew through most of the worst case scenarios in that thing during our "typical recovery"....yeah, try and square that one.; July 8, 2010 at 1:41 PM
McFearless said...: for astro fans, got the link over at Dan's:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7yutt3heU8

the video was really slow to load for me. I'm still really new to all the astro stuff, I find it interesting, too bad we aren't going to get a total eclipse of the heart.

ba-dum ching!; July 8, 2010 at 1:43 PM
McFearless said...: Jamie with the volatility sonar report for today:

http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv; July 8, 2010 at 1:47 PM
McFearless said...: you know another thing I don't like....the volume during this supposed wave ii has been bigger than the volume of Wave 2. I'd like to run that by Andy but I'm thinking this is another issue. There is one large volume bar though that we havent' come close to at the very top of Wave 2.

You can see what I mean here from Kenny:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/TDXxOCMrfbI/AAAAAAAAGRE/t_6QWOsNE7s/s1600/SPX+Daily.png; July 8, 2010 at 1:50 PM
karen said...: ben, almost triple volume on anf.. i'll call it short covering on the news:

A major gainer, shares of Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) rallied nearly 8% to $35.49 as same-store sales jumped 9% -- more than triple the 2.8% analyst average. Total sales for the five weeks ended July 3 increased 23% to $277.3 million.; July 8, 2010 at 1:51 PM
Anonymous said...: Karen

Remember it's easy for same stores sales to jump higher when there are fewer stores...

AmenRa; July 8, 2010 at 1:54 PM
karen said...: my fav, jcg, is down over 1.5% today..

GPS did not have the short position that ANF had..

8:10 AM ET Gap Inc June Banana Republic N Amer Same-Store Sale Up 6%
Dow Jones
8:10 AM ET Gap Inc June Old Navy N Amer Same-Store Sales Flat
Dow Jones
8:10 AM ET Gap Inc June Intl Same-Store Sales FlatDow Jones; July 8, 2010 at 1:54 PM
karen said...: AR, true, true.. i know that crate & barrel closed the store nearest to me.; July 8, 2010 at 1:55 PM
karen said...: i had to go for a rare second cup of coffee at 10:55 pacific time.. my first cup was a disaster, so weak! and these gray days are really getting to me. it was that or pass out, literally.; July 8, 2010 at 1:56 PM
I-Man said...: just brewed a new pot I-Self... must be something in the air...

This is going to be a great close for shorts...; July 8, 2010 at 1:58 PM
Crate & Barrel said...: Now that I'm closed...

Looks like I'm going to have to go over to Abercrombie & Fitch to get me some new duds...; July 8, 2010 at 1:58 PM
karen said...: speaking of aapl:

http://www.businessinsider.com/apples-new-store-in-paris-is-absolutely-gorgeous-2010-7#-2; July 8, 2010 at 1:58 PM
CV said...: BTW

CV predicts that LeBron will stay in Cleveland...; July 8, 2010 at 2:02 PM
karen said...: Market Volatility Affects Bank Lending, LBO Transactions
1:56 PM ET 7/8/10 | Dow Jones

Reports that some banks have dropped out of the debt financing for the rumored EUR25 billion leveraged buyout of Spanish infrastructure group Abertis (ABE.MC) have underscored why widespread LBO chatter from earlier in the year has hasn't yet reached fever pitch.

"The LBO screens keep coming around, and at any given time you have companies that meet the criteria, but there is more wishful thinking than anything," said Marty Fridson, global credit strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

Concern about the mounting debt of some European governments and the potential effect that may have on banks owning that debt have "put a damper on things, so whatever prospects were there were dimmed by the upsurge in sovereign risk concerns," Fridson added.

Many banks have had trouble tapping debt markets themselves, let alone to finance LBOs, said Olivia Frieser, a BNP credit analyst in London covering European banks. "The market's been very difficult or almost closed for about a month now, so it's not as easy or obvious now," she said.

J.P. Morgan just lowered its forecast for second- and third-quarter U.S. GDP to 3.2% and 3%, respectively, from 4% previously in each case.; July 8, 2010 at 2:02 PM
McFearless said...: Mr Top Step:

http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv; July 8, 2010 at 2:03 PM
McFearless said...: C,

This morning a lot of "insiders" seemed to think it would be Miami, I have to admit, I'm sort of on the edge of my seat waiting for it.; July 8, 2010 at 2:04 PM
karen said...: hey, if you watch the video in the last slide of the apple store link you'll see Steve Jobs looking good!; July 8, 2010 at 2:04 PM
McFearless said...: hey C,

Yahoo has a story about your coin find:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100708/ap_on_re_eu/eu_britain_roman_coins; July 8, 2010 at 2:05 PM
karen said...: i don't even have the heart to watch topstep! malaise has really taken ahold of me..; July 8, 2010 at 2:06 PM
CV said...: @McF

All I know is this...

The NEWS CONFERENCE is scheduled in CLEVELAND...

Why in the hell would he hold an hour long, prime-time news conference, in Cleveland, to tell the fans there he was dancing out of town?; July 8, 2010 at 2:06 PM
McFearless said...: that guy tim that does the tech analysis on Top notch is the real deal, I'd love to get a lunch with that guy to pick his brain.; July 8, 2010 at 2:06 PM
McFearless said...: Buffett: 'We’re coming back, no question in my mind'; July 8, 2010 at 2:08 PM
McFearless said...: after i watched the buffett video I had some warm apple pie with a can of cherry coke and I said shucks, jeepers and jee whiz.

anyone want to meet me at the five and dime for real soda's after work?; July 8, 2010 at 2:09 PM
McFearless said...: you know, buffett has clearly lost his edge, you don't do an interview where you state that Obama has to speak with great confidence about the future of the economy and then say stuff like, "no question we are coming back"

sort of easy to figure out what he's doing there no?; July 8, 2010 at 2:10 PM
McFearless said...: another bearded view (or stubble at least):

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/forget-mr.-market----economy-doesn%27t-need-more-stimulus-says-james-paulsen-517689.html?tickers=spy,dia,qqqq,%5Eixic,%5Edji,%5Egspc&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=; July 8, 2010 at 2:13 PM
CV said...: @McF

Well for WB... At least his $8 billion is "coming back" to him cause it's now out of FINREG...

Jeepers Gee Whiz; July 8, 2010 at 2:13 PM
karen said...: Mark's take on GS's USD call:

http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com/2010/07/gs-dollar-forecast.html

ZH said, "Goldman Goes Bearish On Dollar; Time To Short Euro Again"; July 8, 2010 at 2:15 PM
McFearless said...: whats all this red on my screen here

bulls?

BULLS?????; July 8, 2010 at 2:18 PM
arbitrage789 said...: The terms "bull" and "bear" are not meaningful without a time frame.; July 8, 2010 at 2:20 PM
CV said...: @karen

Going the other way on Goldman currency calls has been BANK...; July 8, 2010 at 2:20 PM
karen said...: i might just play 5 min macro and take some profits on my shorts.. i am so sick of this market, really. can we retest 1040 by the close? i really want 1010, of course..; July 8, 2010 at 2:21 PM
I-Man said...: Bulls went home early... they had a nice week already.; July 8, 2010 at 2:22 PM
Leftback spokesman said...: Karen,

By all means, take off your shorts.; July 8, 2010 at 2:23 PM
McFearless said...: Oh DL, let me try and rephrase that for you then:

Bulls looking for a rally for 2-3 weeks?

;-)

you do realize however that some people are in fact just always bullish or bearish.; July 8, 2010 at 2:24 PM
karen said...: LOL! http://www.twitvid.com/8XRPF; July 8, 2010 at 2:24 PM
McFearless said...: the move lower since about quarter after one can be a five....I'm still skeptical of the ii, but it's all playing out.; July 8, 2010 at 2:25 PM
karen said...: Dbl Dutch BJs.. i swear the best video ever..; July 8, 2010 at 2:26 PM
karen said...: "BJs from crack whores are $25 a piece, not that i would know this.."; July 8, 2010 at 2:27 PM
arbitrage789 said...: McF @ 2:24

Yeah, O.K., I plan to be a bull over that time period.

Regarding your other point, I would say that something like 95% of all analysts who make themselves available to the MSM are perma-bulls, another 3% are perma-bears, and only about 2% ever change their mind one way or another.; July 8, 2010 at 2:30 PM
McFearless said...: $25?

inflation....; July 8, 2010 at 2:30 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

sadly, those %'s are probably pretty spot on....random markets with an upside bias...I always loved that one.; July 8, 2010 at 2:31 PM
CV said...: One learns all kinds of interesting things on SURVIVOR CAPITAL; July 8, 2010 at 2:31 PM
karen said...: NIH scientists find antibodies that block most HIV
AlertEmailPrintShare By Wallace Witkowski
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Scientists at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases have found two antibodies that can stop more than 90% of the known virus strains that cause AIDS, the National Institutes of Health said Thursday. "The discovery of these exceptionally broadly neutralizing antibodies to HIV and the structural analysis that explains how they work are exciting advances that will accelerate our efforts to find a preventive HIV vaccine for global use," said NIAID director Anthony Fauci in a statement. The naturally occurring antibodies, called VRC01 and VRC02, neutralize more HIV strains than any other known antibodies, the NIH said.; July 8, 2010 at 2:32 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

now they can tackle the bacteria that are becoming immune to anti-bacterial soap!; July 8, 2010 at 2:34 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Karen @ 2:32

Never saw you post anything like that before.; July 8, 2010 at 2:35 PM
CV said...: "95% of all analysts who make themselves available to the MSM are perma-bulls, another 3% are perma-bears, and only about 2% ever change their mind one way or another."

I'm just a Wall Streeter who blogs...; July 8, 2010 at 2:35 PM
CV said...: $600 coin purchase or sale will require tax form in U.S. in 2012

http://www.gata.org/node/8801; July 8, 2010 at 2:39 PM
karen said...: cv, @ 2:39.. back to italy before 2012 sounds like a plan..; July 8, 2010 at 2:41 PM
karen said...: of course, the black market economy of so cal wouldn't be phased by a little tax law like that..; July 8, 2010 at 2:42 PM
karen said...: DL, here is the headline bulletin as it appeared in my inbox:

NIH scientists find antibodies that block most HIV
07/08/2010 02:29:20 PM; July 8, 2010 at 2:43 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Karen @ 2:32

This is a portion of the abstract of the article:

...........

Xueling Wu, “Rational Design of Envelope Identifies Broadly Neutralizing Human Monoclonal Antibodies to HIV-1”

Cross-reactive neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) are found in the sera of many HIV-1–infected subjects, but the virologic basis of their neutralization remains poorly understood. We used knowledge of HIV-1 envelope (Env) structure to develop antigenically resurfaced glycoproteins specific for the structurally conserved site of CD4 receptor binding. ... ...Exceptionally broad HIV-1 neutralization can be achieved with individual antibodies targeted to the functionally conserved CD4bs of gp120, an important insight for future HIV-1 vaccine design.; July 8, 2010 at 2:44 PM
McFearless said...: Macy's relative to a lot of the others had good numbers again, I've been so dead wrong about that stock.; July 8, 2010 at 2:45 PM
CV said...: @karen

I think I'm going to start my own country...

Can't be any harder than starting a blog, right? :-); July 8, 2010 at 2:46 PM
arbitrage789 said...: CV,

I'm sure that there are islands for sale.

Probably no internet, however.; July 8, 2010 at 2:48 PM
McFearless said...: C,

there's probably an app for that...but here you go to get started:

http://www.wikihow.com/Start-Your-Own-Country; July 8, 2010 at 2:49 PM
CV said...: Anyway, SURVIVOR CAPITAL access will likely be via HAM RADIO pretty soon as soon as El Presidente has this bill on his desk...

Proposed Internet ‘Kill Switch’ Raises Concerns

http://www.heartland.org/full/27937/Proposed_Internet_Kill_Switch_Raises_Concerns.html; July 8, 2010 at 2:50 PM
arbitrage789 said...: CV @ 2:46

Better yet, start your own bank in your new country.

Set the capital gains tax at zero.

Offer to set up "shell companies" for tax evaders in the U.S.; July 8, 2010 at 2:52 PM
CV said...: Here's the bill itself...

http://www.opencongress.org/bill/111-s3480/text; July 8, 2010 at 2:52 PM
McFearless said...: damn, Paul Goydos shot a 59 today....

paris says

That's hot.; July 8, 2010 at 2:56 PM
Anonymous said...: CV, if Greece is serious abour debt reduction, they should sell an island rather than defaulting.

What I donot understand is how a sovereign country can default. They always have some hard asset to sell? Even mineral rights etc. Unless they think they can get away with not paying.; July 8, 2010 at 3:00 PM
leftback said...: I shot a "59" too...

Then I had a beer at the clubhouse and went out and played the back nine...; July 8, 2010 at 3:00 PM
CV said...: @Anon

CV has always said we could sell Alaska & Hawaii...

It was too late to disqualify Obama, but Palin? Still a shot at that...; July 8, 2010 at 3:02 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Leftback @ 3:00

If you're really leftback, show us your pig.; July 8, 2010 at 3:04 PM
leftback said...: A diba diba DL... uh uh here it is...; July 8, 2010 at 3:07 PM
karen said...: EpicureanDeal

After all this hype, LeBron James better raise the effin' dead and cure leprosy wherever he goes.; July 8, 2010 at 3:08 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Leftback @ 3:07

I want a DNA sample, and fingerprints.; July 8, 2010 at 3:09 PM
karen said...: Consumer Credit Contracts
Jul 8 15:00:00 EDT 2010 | Briefing.com
The latest consumer credit figures were just released. They showed that credit contracted by 9.1 billion in May. A contraction of $3.0 billion been expected, on average, by a sample of economists polled by Briefing.com.; July 8, 2010 at 3:13 PM
McFearless said...: oh, btw, did you all see this???

Released on 7/8/2010 3:00:00 PM For May, 2010

Consumer Credit - M/M change Consensus $-2.0 B Consensus Range $-5.0 B to $2.0 B

now wait for it:

ACTUAL: $-9.1 B

Highlights
Consumer credit contracted a sharp $9.1 billion in May with April revised to show an even more severe $14.9 billion contraction. The April revision is very surprising given the initial reading of a $1.0 billion gain!

Revolving credit contracted $7.4 billion in May and contracted $8.3 billion in April. Non-revolving credit shows a $1.8 billion contraction in May on top of a $6.5 billion contraction in April. Neither category is likely to show much improvement in June given indications from today's soft store sales report and last week's soft unit vehicle sales.

Consumer credit had been leveling earlier this year but now appears to be on a double dip. This report could set stocks in reverse during the last hour of trading.; July 8, 2010 at 3:14 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

great minds thinking alike...; July 8, 2010 at 3:14 PM
karen said...: I <3 you, too, Ben.; July 8, 2010 at 3:15 PM
karen said...: Minyanville

Consumer Credit was horrific. May $7bln worse than expected; April revised down by $16 BILLION $$
2 minutes ago via web; July 8, 2010 at 3:16 PM
Anonymous said...: DL,

Are you hoping to out another of us?

Guess who - no wait, don't!; July 8, 2010 at 3:16 PM
karen said...: excuse me! revised down by $16 billion.. you mean the data points we get are that fabricated?!; July 8, 2010 at 3:17 PM
McFearless said...: look at that April revision team

inflation my ace!; July 8, 2010 at 3:17 PM
McFearless said...: alright karen now just stop.....lol!; July 8, 2010 at 3:17 PM
karen said...: so spin me on how this takes the spx to my top by the close..; July 8, 2010 at 3:17 PM
karen said...: speaking of pigs:

nntaleb

The perfect sucker understands that pigs can stare at pearls without seeing value, but doesn't realize he can be in an analog situation.
2 minutes ago via web; July 8, 2010 at 3:18 PM
karen said...: QE and ZIRP FOREVER.. i guess.; July 8, 2010 at 3:20 PM
CV said...: QE2 bitchez!

Not the ocean liner...; July 8, 2010 at 3:20 PM
McFearless said...: Bernanke must really be scratching his head:

why aren't these robots borrowing more with rates so low?

Sir....they are Peeple

Shut the hell up johnson, I went to school for this shit, I'm a Phd dammit!; July 8, 2010 at 3:21 PM
McFearless said...: alright peeps i gotta roll for a few hours...be back later

good luck into the close if anyone is actually doing anything.; July 8, 2010 at 3:22 PM
karen said...: A rhyme for Ahab, wherever he is:

Mary had a little lamb
It drank some gasoline
Then it wandered near a fire
and since has not been seen; July 8, 2010 at 3:23 PM
karen said...: coud be an sds opportunity coming our way...; July 8, 2010 at 3:24 PM
karen said...: 1066 is resonating for some reason..; July 8, 2010 at 3:26 PM
karen said...: so once i finish off the last of the stellas.. i promise (myself) i won't buy another case...; July 8, 2010 at 3:27 PM
CV said...: Somehow I think 1084 will be the high print for this week...; July 8, 2010 at 3:31 PM
CV said...: FWIW

If you look at WEEKLY candles... The tops of all candles would make a touch of 1098 next week the leading diagonal from 1220...

Obviously, that's visible on all charts as well, but the impact resonates more when you look at it from a weekly candle perspective...; July 8, 2010 at 3:35 PM
CV said...: Here at 1065...

That's the FLASH CRASH low... Plus, it's a 61.8% fibo retrace from 1010 to 1098...; July 8, 2010 at 3:38 PM
CV said...: 78.6% fibo would be around 1078, which is also the 200MA on HOURLY candles...; July 8, 2010 at 3:39 PM
CV said...: There's also a reverse H&S going on at that 200MA (hourly)...

6 days down to 1010, we're in day #5 of the upswing; July 8, 2010 at 3:41 PM
Anonymous said...: SPY VOl 131m and +.02%
Yeah that's bullish {snark}

AmenRa; July 8, 2010 at 3:41 PM
CV said...: @Amen

Add it to this list...

The volume associated with the 4 "tall white" candlesticks (the ONLY ones which managed to materialize out of the last 32 trading days) was... 500.9 million, 395.5 million, 240 million and 248 million today...; July 8, 2010 at 3:49 PM
CV said...: Look at it this way...

On July 1st, SPX was 1010... if you were first in line and bought that, you have the chance to sell somewhere around here and 1080 and make about 7-8%...

That's your Q3 nut... Get out of Dodge (or see if there's a chance to buy in the 800's before the end of September...; July 8, 2010 at 3:53 PM
Nic said...: What's with the Leftback doubters?; July 8, 2010 at 3:59 PM
Nic said...: Loved the BJ video Karen; July 8, 2010 at 3:59 PM
I-Man said...: wow... glad I quit early today. Just got back...; July 8, 2010 at 4:01 PM
CV said...: over & out ladies...

Se ya in the corner...

remember... tonight "The Decision" (lol); July 8, 2010 at 4:06 PM
BinT said...: The massive drops in consumer credit should be telling Obama that they have become in the last two months increasingly wary of his policies. If Ben were to be seen out in his helicopter around these parts, he might be shot at...; July 8, 2010 at 4:57 PM
Nic said...: Paulson Hit With $2 Billion In Redemption Requests, Likely Source Of Recent Gold Market Liquidations. Paulson had to liquidate almost 10% of AUM in last few days. Fund had 30% of AUM invested in gold and gold-related assets as of March 31
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/paulson-hit-2-billion-redemption-requests-likely-source-recent-gold-market-liquidations; July 8, 2010 at 5:09 PM
BinT said...: Big Picture
•Consumers and lenders have been intertwined in a vicious negative feedback loop regarding consumer credit. First, lenders became extremely worried about overleveraged consumers, and they pulled back available funds to even the most credit worthy borrower. Next, the consumer became aware of the tightened lending restrictions and increased their savings rate in an effort to pay off their debts. Lenders noticed a drop in demand for loans and became even wearier of the type of consumer looking for credit in today's market. The loop continues as consumers push the savings rate even higher. Until lenders relax restrictions on lending, consumers will continue to demand less credit in the future.

...from Briefing.com; July 8, 2010 at 5:15 PM
wunsacon said...: BinT,

>> The massive drops in consumer credit should be telling Obama that they [are broke]. If Ben were to be seen out in his helicopter around these parts, [people would grab that cash with both hands and use it to make rent or buy a new I-Pad].

Fixed that for you...; July 8, 2010 at 5:47 PM
McFearless said...: Why the heck would anyone believe if it came to bernanke dropping money...literally, that people wouldn't hoard the cash, it's quite obvious that's not going to happen until total disaster has already taken hold, never once in the Fed's history were they ahead of a crisis, I'm so sure in that environment the net would run and buy ipads, the entire idea of this would only make sense to someone like the wizard because of how completely irrational it is.; July 8, 2010 at 6:06 PM
wunsacon said...: Of the many people still have jobs, (a) those who live within their means would hoard the extra bills and use it down the road while (b) the spendthrifts would spend it on I-Pads. The unemployed or the truly desperate would spend it on essentials.

I favor using Friedman's idea of a negative income tax to replace many existing social programs. To avoid the disincentive against working that "welfare" normally creates, the negative tax could be distributed equally to all citizens. (I.e., eliminate "means testing" entirely.) We wouldn't have to worry about "cheating" anymore either (at least not as "much"). And this "social safety net" would be more efficient than the bloated government bureaucracies it replaces.

If Bernanke were to start dropping money to everyone equally instead of the banks, it could become a step in the direction of the negative income tax.; July 8, 2010 at 6:28 PM
McFearless said...: CV mentioned this early, I find this to be extremely important news on a number of levels, and here is the sentiment on a gold site:

http://numismaster.com/ta/inside_numis.jsp?page=PollResults&PollId=4225&PollQuestioId=4289; July 8, 2010 at 6:31 PM

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Morning Audibles 7.8.10 - Doesn't Add Up

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