TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 3.24.10

Morning Audibles 3.24.10 - Anatomy of a P2

Don't worry if you're NOT a "chart-o-logist", CV is here to explain to you the basic definition of what the Elliott Wavers describe as a "P2"...

Here's what it looks like to EW'ers... (courtesy DANERIC)

Here's what it looks (and "feels") like to the rest of CRAMERICA (with appropriate "date" insignias)...

It all starts with a friendly bartender (preferably a Princeton or Harvard type) - March '09

Line 'em up - April '09

Don't FRUIT the damn things!

Cheers!

Nice first round there! You feelin' it? I'm feelin'it! - May/June '09

Let's take it another step! - July '09

Now that's what I'm talking about! (but skeptics appear - chick in green top) - August '09

You're doing it WRONG! - September '09

Uh oh! It appears I might have a drinking problem - October '09

OK then... FINE! I'll be analytical about this and set some 'targets' - November '09

Go for it... But just a friendly reminder from some RESPONSIBLE types - December '09

No heed? Well then, we wish you our best upon embarking on your quest - January '09

Last warning... But this is what happened to the LAST GUY... - January '10

Had too much? OK, we'll support you for a couple more rounds - April '10

Welcome to P3... Hope you enjoy your stay! - BEYOND

Just sleep it off... don't mind us! - FURTHER BEYOND

Your trusty dog Cramer, Obama, Bernanke, Rover said it would be OK? He'll explain it all to you when you eventually sober up. - Do DATES really matter at this point?

But who am I to stop you from your celebratory TOAST?

Gotta warn you though that this might happen!

But no matter what happens... You'll always have people like Peggy Joseph on your side because, HEY, you're going to pay for her gas and mortgage, right?

282 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 282 of 282 Newer› Newest»

Leftback said...: "peak oil is coming sooner than we think"

peak oil inventories more like !! we are awash with the stuff...; March 24, 2010 at 2:53 PM
I-Man said...: @ McF

You're too good for Johnathan any damn way.

And for sure, I'll keep you looped in. You're my boy, blue.; March 24, 2010 at 2:54 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

T-bills are the safest possible cash, much safer than a checking account, the mattress is a bad idea, if at home you'd at least be better of with a safe :).

I also meet a lot of people that keep any gold/silver they have in a safety deposit box.

Not smart....

Just think that through... P3, total chaos....Oh hello Mr. DL, sure, you can come in to our branch and get your gold and silver coins/bars, would you like a loli-pop on your way out?; March 24, 2010 at 2:56 PM
Leftback said...: 2s10s at 273 bps from 266 yesterday. 292 or so was the peak.

Today or tomorrow probably a good day to buy a pinch of the 5y Ts.; March 24, 2010 at 2:57 PM
McFearless said...: LB,

I suppose it makes sense with all the focus on the Euro/Dollar, but I'd have not expected the year that's been put in by GBP so far.; March 24, 2010 at 2:59 PM
Nic said...: Inventories are a joke, agreed. but the stories were out there, people read them and USO is more than 30% of the WTI open interest.; March 24, 2010 at 3:00 PM
I-Man said...: And money kept in mason jars underground molds...

Dont ask how I know.; March 24, 2010 at 3:00 PM
McFearless said...: Nic,

Did you trade at a shop before you went out on your own? Or are you on your own?; March 24, 2010 at 3:01 PM
Leftback said...: Quick observation that JNK and HYG are not off much. So again, without an ACROSS THE BOARD sell-off in credit, this is NOT the bond market break. This is a trade - the steepener and the tightener. As if spreads were capable of getting any tighter.; March 24, 2010 at 3:01 PM
I-Man said...: "USO is more than 30% of the WTI open interest."

Ho boy... I didnt know it was that high...

Ruh-roh.; March 24, 2010 at 3:01 PM
Leftback said...: LB thinks sterling is doomed. Not for the first time.

The I-Man, LB could do with some "flowers" today, and a nice glass of red. Do you guys know what it's like when you DODGE the dreadful trading day, it's almost more disconcerting than when you take the bullet.; March 24, 2010 at 3:04 PM
DL said...: McFearless,

Hell, if you've got lollipops, I'll come for a visit.; March 24, 2010 at 3:04 PM
karen said...: I-Man.. check 2:05 on GS.. it's showing on stockcharts, anyway..; March 24, 2010 at 3:04 PM
CV said...: @LB

They should call it "peek oil"...

as in... Let's take a PEEK to see how many barrels of oil Lloyd has squirreled away in his basement...; March 24, 2010 at 3:06 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Holy Kitty Litter, Batman, that 10 year bond spike is impressive today!; March 24, 2010 at 3:07 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

No lollipops at our office, but we have got plenty of account applications here, lol.

I also bought a stuffed bear and put it on top of my file cabinets in full view of my meeting table. No clients have commented on it yet, I wonder if it occurs to them what it means or if they just think, "what's with the stuffed animal"; March 24, 2010 at 3:08 PM
CV said...: I have the lollipops actually IN the safe deposit box...

So I have that going for me...; March 24, 2010 at 3:08 PM
Lord Blankfiend said...: Let's take a PEEK to see how many barrels of oil Lloyd has squirreled away in his basement...

They are over there, under that "TARP"..

Look if I was funny, I wouldn't work at Goldman, I'd be on Late Night. Oh wait. Leno isn't funny either.; March 24, 2010 at 3:09 PM
I-Man said...: K:

I got 13,849 shares traded for the GS 1min candle at 14:05 EST.; March 24, 2010 at 3:09 PM
Mack said...: Bill gross speaks, you listen..right?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36021165; March 24, 2010 at 3:09 PM
CV said...: We still haven't tagged 1165.32 today...

But I think it's coming before the close...; March 24, 2010 at 3:09 PM
Leftback said...: B in T:

We were HEDGED... LB is still shaking... !; March 24, 2010 at 3:10 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Lefty,

Don't know if you saw it or not, but earlier today folks in the Mother Country were opining that losing AAA rating status wouldn't be "so bad"

It is kind of like when the ugly red-headed kid beats you to asking out that good looking cheerleader in high school. Just rationalizing your way home...; March 24, 2010 at 3:10 PM
I-Man said...: Blankfiend, that was the funniest shit you've cracked since you started lurking here...

Whatever you do, dont look under the TARP.; March 24, 2010 at 3:10 PM
Nic said...: McF - I always intended to go to a shop or a fund and I have had a few prop offers.
Funny how things happen but someone who helped me early in my trading was working at a fund and they suddenly stopped them being allowed to trade personal accts, and so they gave me some money to trade and then the word spread and I got a few more the same way. So I am in the strange position of having some clients who are themselves traders.
I am not sure I would go prop now but I would consider the right offer from a firm.; March 24, 2010 at 3:11 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=auS83g4GxH4E

"Former finance minister Norman Lamont said today “it’s a risk” that Britain loses the top ratings grade because the nation’s tax take may not be enough to cover the cost of borrowing. The public finances are too tight to allow Darling to increase spending, he said.

“We are getting near to a situation where receipts are not necessarily going to be adequate for paying the debt interest,” Lamont said on Bloomberg Television. “It’s crystal clear that Alistair Darling doesn’t have any room for maneuver.”; March 24, 2010 at 3:14 PM
Leftback said...: 1.10 on the 2y is pricing in a rate hike this year, no ifs ands or buts.

Which means - someone is going to be wrong.. GS has a 3.25% f/c for the 10y and MS has a 5.5% f/c. That's some BIG AIR between those limits. This, my friends, will be interesting.

Bruce how do you know LB is NOT the ugly red-headed kid?; March 24, 2010 at 3:15 PM
McFearless said...: Nic,

thanks, prop interests me, but not as much as just trading my own money full time. I wouldn't mind working for a handful of people though, rather than the almost 200+ I deal with now.; March 24, 2010 at 3:15 PM
DL said...: B in T @ 3:10

Aren't they in better shape now (financially) than they were in 1945...?

So, it could be worse.; March 24, 2010 at 3:15 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: LB:

I can see you as really ugly...yep. But probably not red headed...; March 24, 2010 at 3:16 PM
Leftback said...: Today is a massive pairs trade.

LONG 5y (bankrupt mall operator) or (chotchke retail outlet) paper.
SHORT 5 and 10y Ts.

What could go wrong?; March 24, 2010 at 3:17 PM
McFearless said...: the personal account trading is a serious problem for an advisor, if I buy SPY for John Q., let's say $5,000 worth, and I want to liquidate my, say $500,000 position on the same day as him, I have to give him the better price or I'm trading ahead.; March 24, 2010 at 3:18 PM
DL said...: McFearless,

You've got to set up an account in the Caymans.; March 24, 2010 at 3:21 PM
Nic said...: McF that freedom is pretty cool, making less to have it can be worth it.
Sounds like you do pretty good though.
Its very easy to get remote prop backing, it all depends what limitations it would put on your trading style. For swing traders the overnight position limits etc can be a pain. etc.
I have considered switching to just trading crude to do it. I would get way more sleep too.; March 24, 2010 at 3:21 PM
McFearless said...: and to be clear, I'm not saying it shouldn't be that way, it should, it's just,.... an issue.; March 24, 2010 at 3:22 PM
Lord Blankfiend said...: That is a problem? Front running is my middle name, sucker.; March 24, 2010 at 3:22 PM
Nic said...: vampire squid visitors; March 24, 2010 at 3:24 PM
McFearless said...: Nic,

I think when/if I do switch that's my plan, trade one specific market and just attempt to own that space. Perhaps a few small trades outside of that.

I do ok, but nothing to write home about really...given my obsession with socionomics I wouldn't mind dedicating a portion of my life to research in that area at some point either.; March 24, 2010 at 3:25 PM
I-Man said...: Blanky's on a roll today!; March 24, 2010 at 3:26 PM
McFearless said...: Lord,

I'm not down at 85. In DE we don't have front running capability yet. I think it's coming Q3 or so.; March 24, 2010 at 3:26 PM
Leftback said...: I bet Bill Gross had an intergalactic sized hedge on today and is talking his book. We had our second largest hedge of all time on today.

Buying a smidge of 5y Ts here. Just a smidge.; March 24, 2010 at 3:27 PM
Denise Garterman said...: We get a lot of visitors. In fact, we are long of celebrity visitors. Although we do not consider ourselves a celebrity, especially when we are long of gold. Which we are not.; March 24, 2010 at 3:28 PM
Nic said...: Agree McF - Good luck us!; March 24, 2010 at 3:29 PM
I-Man said...: The 5min SPY is pretty much wide open now...

The chop since the auction results has me kind of hamstrung here...

Dont have a clue which way it will go.

Part of me thinks "fake invisi-bid" spike, and fade...; March 24, 2010 at 3:32 PM
McFearless said...: LB,

Last I talked with PIMCO, which was late Feb. Gross had some short hedges on, I doubt today hurt him too much, plus, lots of his funds have been going overseas for fixed income.; March 24, 2010 at 3:34 PM
Leftback said...: SURELY, some room in Treasuries here, profit taking in equities? Rates are not going to go into orbit tomorrow, they will take down the 7y.

I mean, THIS AIN'T NO DISCO... the 70s, not gonna happen.; March 24, 2010 at 3:35 PM
Bill Gross said...: We are having a good day at PIMCO, we read LEFTBACK daily for tips, because MOHAMED is too busy writing books !; March 24, 2010 at 3:36 PM
McFearless said...: Have you all noticed that there seems to be a big effort right now to disprove the idea of the "new normal"?

I got my first taste of that yesterday with a link Karen sent me but now I'm seeing/hearing it all over the place.; March 24, 2010 at 3:39 PM
Mohamed El-Erian said...: Those assholes will be eating SPAM for dinner when THE NEW NORMAL catches up with them. IF the NEW NORMAL doesn't arrive, Bill will make me EAT SPAM ON THE GOVIES DESK....; March 24, 2010 at 3:43 PM
Leftback said...: Man, it just seems like everyone reads your blog these days, CV.; March 24, 2010 at 3:44 PM
McFearless said...: I'm waiting for Faber or Bobby P to show up.; March 24, 2010 at 3:45 PM
I-Man said...: Instinct.; March 24, 2010 at 3:47 PM
Obama said...: Some of you right-wing assholes are going to get audited.; March 24, 2010 at 3:47 PM
AmenRa said...: McF

I think Summers was one of the ones trying to discredit the "new normal".; March 24, 2010 at 3:47 PM
karen said...: there is no support for gld at 106, and if 100 goes..; March 24, 2010 at 3:50 PM
Leftback said...: Mr President. With respect, your NCAA picks were a bit suspect.

Now, some of us are LEFT-WING assholes. Now smash the banks, please, for the sake of the rest of humanity.; March 24, 2010 at 3:51 PM
I-Man said...: Sell em Lloyd... dont be a dick.; March 24, 2010 at 3:53 PM
John Mayer said...: That was a blast. I was diggin' it dudes. Especially the chicks.

Karen you are HOTT.; March 24, 2010 at 3:55 PM
mcHAPPY said...: In a situation where you find yourself debating going long or short - do nothing. The lessons mcHAPPY learned the hard way. Sitting in cash overnight.; March 24, 2010 at 3:56 PM
Barack said...: Just for you, Leftie, I will; March 24, 2010 at 3:57 PM
karen said...: gdx down nearly 4%; March 24, 2010 at 3:58 PM
karen said...: TGINF.. i wish it wasn't even 1PM/4PM..; March 24, 2010 at 4:00 PM
Nic said...: Looks like weak closes for AUDUSD and USDCAD.
AUDUSD under trendline support, USDCAD above resistance, could generate some more selling vs dollar.
Moodys confirm UK AAA rating, someone buys a couple of hundred pounds of cable just before 4 and still it tanks ... sterling and euro not looking pretty.; March 24, 2010 at 4:06 PM
AmenRa said...: Coming to you sometime around 4/1/10: QE to infinity; March 24, 2010 at 4:08 PM
Nic said...: I thought you said only 6 more days?; March 24, 2010 at 4:11 PM
Nic said...: Hehe; March 24, 2010 at 4:12 PM
I-Man said...: Ben,

You gotta link from that RP letter from last March you referenced yesterday?; March 24, 2010 at 4:17 PM
AmenRa said...: Nic

It's 5 now... :-); March 24, 2010 at 5:00 PM
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Morning Audibles 3.24.10 - Anatomy of a P2

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