AmenRa's Daily Candle Wrap

Bullish long day. Held above fibo extension 1153.47 and next price target is 1172.08. No selloff due to health care reform (but the bill signing is tomorrow). No daily 3LB changes. Only 7 more days of QE!!!

Bearish thrusting day (which is a continuation pattern). Tested Gann 2x1 and failed. Uptrend may be back (midpoint is still above 10 SMA). No daily 3LB changes.

Bearish long day which negated the bullish engulfing (but it did open 7.8% higher). Held the fibo ext of 61.8% (support). Midpoint still below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.

Bearish short day (lower shadow too short for hammer). Closed below the 89, 55, 21 and 10 SMA's (again). Tested the weekly 3LB mid (1099.50) and passed. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1108.10.

Takuri line (possibly) but there's nothing to be bullish about. Midpoint is now below 10 SMA. Closed below 21 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.

Bearish long day. Closed below the monthly 3LB reversal of 18.61. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 19.69.

Bullish spinning top day. Held the 10 SMA and gap from 5 days ago. It doesn't want to give up just yet. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 552.42.


Andy T said...

Was sort of an "easy" daytrading call, as if there is such thing. 1150 was broken resistance which became support....and it was. What it means now is that there is very real support at 1150--1152. A break down below there should cause at least a mini "whoosh" lower. In the meantime, "same as it ever was...."

Anonymous said...

Ra says-

"Only 7 more days of QE!"

true- and I think for the time being the Fed is getting of the MBS market-

but we now have Geithner starting to talk about the GSE's which- as we know- have an unlimited backstop from the Treasury-

it makes me wonder if the next "phase" of supporting housing prices is about to kick in-

not sure what exactly- but massive debt forgiveness and write-downs and blanket payoffs of 2nds at 100% on the dollar may be in the offing-

anyone have other ideas

anything to keep homes from foreclosing

Anonymous said...

my man Jesse- as usual- good insight-

"The adulation which the media and financiers had showered on Mussolini and Hitler and their economic recoveries in the 1930's was widespread, as it was for Japan Inc. in the 1980's, and for China today. The crowd always gets it wrong, but it is surprising how often the monied interests and the professionals get it wrong as well, and remain stubborn in their misjudgement until they are overwhelmed by its consequences."

so true, so true- China- I don't believe the hype- a crash and the fall of a government waiting to happen

Mannwich said...

This post is dedicated to the "one trade" dollar crowd here.

Anonymous said...

. . .and I am really surprised I never got any response to this post from andy's Sunday night thread-

"what of the flip side-

where Google's departure shows the weakness of China- an insular country with no basic freedoms-

might it send a danger signal to all technology companies who want to compete in that space- that not only does China not value freedom but will gladly steal your technology w/ impunity-

and what of the countries where the tech company is headquartered-

could it not lead to trade restrictions because China does not truly have open markets- but only a market open to those willing to self censor?"

Denniger's take today-

Anonymous said...

Some interesting post from :

1)Fed's MBS exist won't impact markets:UBS. "The 'exist' is all priced in...more worried about rising rates, but neutral on global equities.

2)More upside to loonie against U$D . One loone = 1.05 uncle sam.

3)Rosenberg -S&P cyclicals are expensive. Housing and retail stocks are expensive.

4)Adding 'China' to name leads to outperformance- thinks Queen's University Prof.

There you have it from Canada.

luv the gold trend said...

For fun, I got Neely's gold service. Given that it's copyrighted, I'll give one of his insights and then a plug :)

He's calling for at least one more new all-time high in gold in 2010. My only plug is I like his broader style and not trying to call every minute turn. However, it's definitely not just traditional EW. I definitely have to get his book.

Ahab, Doug Dachille was on Bloomberg radio a week or so ago explaining how the federal government will support the mortgage industry once fed purchases end. It's basically fred & fan buying deliquent loans for full $100. i thhink he even said most laons were multi-year deliquent. Sounded insane ... "same as it ever was ..."


Anonymous said...

Trader Mark's post at said it all on China's trade practices. Titled" Bloomber:China rules hurt U.S. companies"

In it he writes," You can hear the Chinese saying, yes yes please bring all your work and R&D...somewhere Mao must be laughing"

Anonymous said...


exactly- protect the banks bad investments. Maybe the banks have been sitting on these delinquent mortgages taking no action because of a nod and wink of what is about to now happen-

very plausible

Anonymous said...

anon @8:46-

my point exactly

AmenRa said...


Isn't that the same thing they did during the Mexican currency crisis? The banks were told to hold them until they had regained their value (aka mark-to-fantasy). Then they could sell them later once they were back to par.

mcHAPPY said...

What do those who have a grasp of EW think of Lara @ ?

McFearless said...


I'm working off the same basic count on the USD. If the count is correct the silver short trade is a good one right now as well imo.

CV said...


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