AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: I play both sides. No trade is safe when I'm around.

SPX
Bullish long day. Morning star confirmed. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the trendline (3/6/09-7/1//10). Passed the third test of 1041.83 (.1459 fibo from high). Back above 1078.87 (1.618 fib from low). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1047.22). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Failed the SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 83.31).




VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Now below the SMA(21) & SMA(144). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 27.46).



GOLD
Bearish harami day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Yet is still heading towards the 0% (we'll see). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1230.10).



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint slightly below EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Still failing the 4x1 Gann. It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2654).



JNK
Bullish long day (yet closed unchanged). Still failing to close gap. Above the SMA(89) & SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 has held. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. closed one gap (2 more left). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 26.85).



AUDJPY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above SMA(21), SMA(55) & SMA(144). Tested and passed the 23.6% retrace at 75.5696. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 74.2463).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day. Back above the upper trendline, the SMA(233), the SMA(55) and SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 4082.51). Above weekly 3LB reversal price.



GS
Spinning top day (really? as bullish as today was?). Below all SMA's. Midpoint below the EMA(10). Below the 14.6% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 143.95).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 9.1.10

Ah, risk! A rose by any other name should smell as sweet....

Corpies: LQD -0.61%; AGG -0.33%; JNK 0.83%; HYG 1.02%;
Govies: TLT -2.08%; IEI -0.34%; TIP -0.43%
Hedgies: TBT 4.06%

We covered our short of the long bond, and enjoyed the screams. A little too much, perhaps, but that's what makes us who we are...

POMO tomorrow. Then we get to do this all over again.
Sublime. Admit it, we are good.

Morning Audibles 9.1.10

Welcome to September (traditionally - the WORST performing month of the year, on average, for equities - though you wouldn't know it by the S&P futures which are on track to gap up 10 points on news that China’s purchasing managers’ index had a WHALLOPING rise to 51.7 from 51.2)...

Pardon Me while I Raff Out Roud

For those of you who don't understand Chinese, that basically means that there will be 517 vacant buildings in every city instead of 512... A 5 building increase!

So now the FOXCONN employees won't have to stand in line anymore to jump out of windows...

Anyway... Since CV gets paid just about as much as these contented little worker bees... I'll offer my ENTIRE PAYCHECK and give you all the 5 cent rundown:

- Yeah I suppose the indices (which always lead) are a little oversold "short term"

- Yeah we had a "generational" triple bottom at 1040... count 'em! 3 in 26 hours! GENERATIONAL I say!

- Yeah it's the first of the month (time for Jamie & Lloyd to offload their overpriced crap onto your friendly neighborhood 401k manager... You know... For THE FUN)...

- Yeah it's still summer (and remember - this is the SUMMER OF HOPE - so we have that going for us)... And even though "Creditcane Earl" is bearing down on the Hamptons, well, for masters of the universe, that is just an excuse to go windsurfing, right?

So the question is? How long will this last?

Frankly... I have no idea... Many wavers still have tight ranges (not giving much more than the 1070 - 1080 area)... Some others like RETESTS back up in the 1110 area... And then there are still gaps to fill, potentially, around 1120 and way up at 1150...

What I thought I'd do is take a broader look at things... The following is a MONTHLY chart (going clear back to 1987)... Stock Market people remember that year... And it was also the year that this movie came out...

And here's what the S&P has done since then...

I think pictures tell their own words but since I make the BIG BUCKS here, I'll offer up what I see for free... (admitting this is REARVIEW MIRROR analysis)...

- The straight line ruler from the post 1987 crash low thru the monthly closing candle low in 2002 takes us to a point that the market lost this summer, and is thus far failing to regain... It is very close to the 1130 level where the market failed on the July candle, and now the August candle as well

- The 233 month moving average & 377 month moving averages are on the chart... When looking at things from a long term perspective, you need to apply long term thinking... 233 months takes you back to about 1991... 377 takes you all the way back to 1978... At minumum, these should "smooth out" presidential cycles, credit bubbles, and CRAZY IVAN Fed czars...

- The RSI (of the "bubblicious" 2003-2007 period, and the "fear-a-licious" 10/08 - 7/09 period can be seen is periods OUTSIDE of a fairly flattish wedge which extends back 15 years. The most recent months show some consolidation within, but the August candle produce a a trend line break of the trajectory since the March '09 lows... It may be nothing, but in May the trend line was broken as well, and the move to do so happened to be the flash crash...

So again... For all I know, this chart is worth nothing more than looking back at 1990 candles and reminiscing about that night in Copenhagen with "Rannevig" from Iceland...

Or you could instead LOOK FORWARD to Wall St. II... Where I suppose "Greed" is still "Good" and "Money Never Sleeps" because it's all debt and electrons anyway... (Here, see for yourself)...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/28/wall-street-2-trailer-vid_n_440392.html?show_comment_id=39036913#comment_39036913

Good luck trading...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: I'm headed up the coast. See you soon Wall St.

SPX
Spinning top day. Morning star formation? Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below the trendline (3/6/09-7/1//10). Passed the third test of 1041.83 (.1459 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1071.69). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Held the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 83.31).




VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below weekly 3LB mid but above monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 27.46).



GOLD
Bullish long day. Keeps resolving dojis higher. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still heading towards the 0%. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1230.10).



EURUSD
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Still failing the 4x1 Gann. It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2654).



JNK
Bullish short day. Still failing to close gap. Still above the SMA(89) and above the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 is held. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 26.85).



AUDJPY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed the 23.6% retrace at 75.5696. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.1783).



DJ TRANS AVG
Spinning top day. Still below the upper trendline and the SMA(233). Still below the SMA(55) and SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4236.96). Still below weekly 3LB reversal price.



SLV
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Above the 85.4% retrace heading for the 100%. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 19.12).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 8.31.10

A risk-off flattener day. You got that, right? The long end was strongest today and 2s10s declined to about 199 bps. Corporate bonds remained strong, and the long bond reached a 3.52% low yield. High yield had a good day, all things considered.

Corpies: LQD 0.34%; AGG 0.07%; JNK 0.34%; HYG -0.03%;
Govies: TLT 1.19%; IEI 0.18%; TIP 0.28%
Hedgies: TBT -2.24%

We sold some AGG today. We are hedged against our remaining fixed income exposure. We are not bullish on bonds here, and see significant rate risk growing here, especially in Treasuries of which we are short.

Oh and just so you can hate me, I am long equities as well.

Morning Audibles 8.31.10 - No Matter What - We Get Out of This...

You didn't have to wait until this morning to get this... You could have had it last night if you were paying attention...

(from ZH)


"EURCHF has just taken out all stops as it plunged by almost 60 pips in the span of a few minutes as Japan opens... Which opened about 2% down... Which goes to show just the idiocy levels of our markets - there was nothing incremental from last night's BoJ decision, so the Nikkei should have been dropping then. But instead it decided to trade way higher and only plunge once Made In New York Atari algos told it it was safe to plunge.

Either way, set your alarm clocks to around 5 am, which is when the SNB tends to intervene most often, and have those upside EURCHF stops ready, as the pair is wound so tight it is just waiting for the Hildebrand match: the (very temporary) bounce, which will cost the SNB another CHF10 billion will likely send the CHF about 150-200 pips lower, only to retrace all losses imminently."

In any case... It's not NOTHING... But amongst Hindenburg Omens, Cardinal Crosses, Death Crosses, 200MA tickdowns, PPT "open market" activity... It's just AMAZING to me how this RASPUTIN of a market manages to skip along in it's "DL" like state of calm, and even (as was the case this past weekend), manage to convince bears that they should be COVERING and COWERING in the corner...


This is TWO DAYS IN A ROW that CV is featuring "Deep Purple" on this blog... Frankly, I hadn't expected to do so yesterday... But Monday  (and, in fact, THIS WHOLE SUMMER has got me wondering)... Which is... Frankly... a state I've been in for more than 18 months... But delay after delay beats even a resolute soul down... After all, CV doesn't enjoy the luxury of vacationing & "kickin' it with the lap dogs" as others seem to have mastered the art of...


My retort to the tourists & lapdoggers of the world...

We all came out to Montreux...

On the Lake Geneva shoreline...

To make records with a mobile

We didn't have much time...

Frank Zappa and the Mothers...

Were at the best place around...

But some stupid with a flare gun

Burned the place to the ground...

Smoke on the water, a fire in the sky... Smoke on the water...

They burned down the gamblin' house,

It died with an awful sound...

And Funky Claude was running in and out

Pulling kids out the ground...

When it all was over

We had to find another place...

But Swiss time was running out

It seemed that we would lose the race...

Smoke on the water, a fire in the sky, Smoke on the water...

We ended up at the Grand Hotel

It was empty cold and bare...

But with the Rolling truck Stones thing just outside

Making our music there...

With a few red lights and a few old beds

W

e made a place to sweat...

No matter what we get out of this...

I know, I know we'll never forget...

Smoke on the water, a fire in the sky... Smoke on the water...