AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Came out swinging in the AM and got knocked around for a bit. Corner threw in the towel towards the close.

SPX
Hanging man day (but it didn't gap higher aka warning bears). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1276.56). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day (failed morning star start). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the 23.6% retrace (78.72). Heading for the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.64).



VIX
Bullish short day (failed to confirm dark cloud cover). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and passed SMA(55). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 17.75). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Doji day. Still below SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Tested and held the 38.2% retrace (1328.33). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1360.50). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Well above its 50.0% retrace at 1.3506. Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3466).



JNK
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(55). Finally closed the gap post dividends. Still above 38.2% retrace (40.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Failed the 14.6% retrace at 33.86. Back below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Holding above upper trend line.



CRB
Bearish short day (guess that was bearish engulfing which just was confirmed). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). No test of new 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 323.94). Also now below weekly 3LB reversal price.



MUB
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Held the 23.6% retrace (98.10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 99.96). Tested and failed the weekly 3LB mid.



TLT
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Held lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 90.94).

Morning Corner 1.25.11

Nikkei (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 10541.04
rev= 10211.95; mid= 10376.50


I'd say they were doing alright but that bearish engulfing is ominous. It won't take much to break below the weekly reversal price. If there is no support at the monthly mid it's going to drop hard and fast. But its been that way for a long time and previous highs will never be seen again.



RUXX (weekly info)
new high 680.21
trend=up
high= 680.21
rev= 640.78; mid= 660.50



Russia is doing all it can to hold the lower trend line. Part of Russia's advance is due to oil prices being elevated. How long that lasts is anyone's guess.



Shanghai Composite (weekly info)
new low 2715.29
trend=down
low= 2715.29
rev= 2842.43; mid= 2778.86



This week isn't starting off too well for China. Rumors of interbank liquidity drying up. Inflation much higher than reported (masters degree from the BLS). SHIBOR rates going exponential. Cities with no residents. Malls with no retailers. How are they going to lead the recovery?


90 Day Treasury (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 0.09
rev= 0.17; mid= 0.13



90 day has been moving higher since the last FOMC meeting. Is this a warning that the Fed may have to make a move on rates sooner than expected? ZIRP can't go on forever. Can it?



Some morning humor to keep your mind off the low volume ramp that's coming:

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Forgot about working the US markets. Had more fun in the foreign markets.

SPX
Bullish long day (resolved doji higher. damn). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1276.56). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day (start of morning star?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the 23.6% retrace (78.72). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.96).



VIX
Dark cloud cover day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.11). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bearish short day (failed morning star start). Still below SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Quickly approaching the 38.2% retrace (1328.33). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1346.50). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above its 50.0% retrace at 1.3506. Still above SMA(89). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3453).



JNK
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(55). Still can't close gap post dividends. Back above 38.2% retrace (40.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).



10YR YIELD
Spinning top day. Held above the 14.6% retrace at 33.86. Still above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Holding above upper trend line.



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish short day. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 5212.60).




CRB
Bearish long day (bearish engulfing?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No test of new 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 323.94).



XLF
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Held the 14.6% retrace (16.41). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.72).



IQI
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). Held new 0.0% retrace (11.15). Still above 23.6% retrace (11.68). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Now above weekly 3LB mid (11.76).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 1.24.11

A quiet Monday. It was quiet, too quiet.... he mused, as risky credits rose by 0.2% for the 69th consecutive day. The recovery in munis continued among the eerie silence. Little action in Treasuries, with no macro data today and auctions of 2s, 5s and 7s ahead of us this week.

We listened for the buzzing of US factories and the jobless returning to work under President Obanana and his new Emplyment Czar and personal grooming advisor Jiffy Emmelt, but we heard nothing, not even crickets.

Only the stillness of the frozen tundra, the far away howl of a wolf, and snow falling on cedars....

Corpies: LQD 0.05%; AGG -0.06%; JNK 0.22%; HYG 0.14%
Govies: TLT 0.04%; IEI 0.01%; TIP -0.07%
Munis: IQI 0.68%; MUB 0.50%
Mortgages: MBB -0.01%
Hedgies: TBT -0.21%

We get nervous when it is too easy, so we trimmed our HY holdings again and added to our EM shorts.

13% HYG, 10% AGG, 5% TIP, 4% TLT, 3% LQD (total 35%)
14% long equities, 19% short EMs, 6% short gold.

Morning Corner 1.24.11

IWM vs SPY (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new low 0.603
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 0.603
rev= 0.628; mid= 0.615


I've read somewhere that this is a good way to view liquidity in the market. Since there was a weekly 3LB reversal down does this mean liquidity is starting to dry up? If it is then does that mean QE3 is closer than we think? It's also now below its monthly 3LB reversal price. Ruh roh?


vs

Let the trash talking begin!!!

Sunday Evening Commentary

Hello All,

The added "color" this evening will be lighter than usual because, like most other red-blooded Americans, I'm watching the last best weekend of American Football.

Market Discussion 23 Jan 11

AAPL

A slide on Apple Stock was added in with this week's update. For what it's worth, I think Apple makes good products and Steve Jobs is a good CEO and they (the Company) probably have a "deep bench" and yada yada yada. However, whatever one thinks about its products can be much different than what one might think about the stock.

That's an important distinction that investors sometimes "lose sight of"....

The quickness and speed with which every "analyst" told you to "buy the dip" after the Jobs announcement was pretty strong evidence of the level of "commitment" towards APPL.

It's clearly the most "over-owned" stock on planet earth. That's not to say it can't keep chugging higher, but the stock will be exposed to rapid elevator rides lower.

For amusement sake, here was the blog discussion on Apple/Steve Jobs, etc last week at TBP: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/steve-jobs-apple/#comments

And, here are a couple of the illuminating morsels you got from that discussion:

==========

"cognos Says:
January 18th, 2011 at 4:29 pm

Yeah, this is all silly… but thanks for the $10 (I buy the dip).

This is the SAME announcement as last year and really represents that Steve Jobs is a part-time CEO. He took the same 6-month leave last year, announced basically at the same time, in the same way.

Looks like the company will do $25/shr in eps this year… conservatively $35/shr next year. What will that be worth?"

=============

Thor Says:
January 18th, 2011 at 9:03 pm

Here’s a question – how many of you folks who think this Apple thing is just a fad own an Apple product? If so, which one’s? .....

.... Apple is a successful American company making innovative, quality products. That are the classic American Comeback story as well, I don’t understand the strong negative opinions some of you have toward this company. Some of the very same people who will now, I’m sure, call me a Fanboy. Well yes actually I am a big Apple fanboy, why would I not be? I work with this shit for a living and from a professional standpoint, Apple makes a better product, by far – period.

============

So, there you have it. That's all you needed to know. Get out there and buy, buy, buy.