AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: Force fields are illegal. Let me in!

SPX
Spinning top day (another hanging man set free). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Tested and failed 1177.84 (the .0344 fibo from high) again. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1165.15). QE2infinity (aka the beginning of the end).



DXY
Bullish short day (formed a bullish piercing but 1st day should be longer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested its 85.4% retrace at 76.29 and passed. Well below 78.41 (.0557 from low). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.32).



VIX
Bearish short day (upper shadows indicating direction it wants to go). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.21). Managed to return to the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish engulfing day (or so they want you to think). Way above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of new 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1347.70).



EURUSD
Dark cloud cover day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3840). Table throwing at the G20?



JNK
Homing pigeon day (but we're in an uptrend and it's mostly for downtrends). Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed back below the 100% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.01).



10YR YIELD
Bullish LONG day (after closing gap). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 is the line in the sand. Back above the weekly 3LB mid (25.35) and SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 23.81).



DJ TRANS AVG
Spinning top day (confirmed hanging man and bearish harami). Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4583.57).



CRB
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Failed the Gann 1x1. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 299.93).




YEN (FXY)
Bearish short day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested but failed its 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 120.86). There's pain and then there's pain. Domo arigatou.

Morning Audibles 10.15.10

Got a headache?

IT happens... (mostly to yours truly - so I'm not as concerned as I perhaps should be about your silly problems)...

Capital Markets are always going to make somebody grumpy in one way or another... It is, in fact, all GAMBLING, so some are going to go home happy, and some grumpy on any given day... (Assuming there's REAL MONEY, not "pretend money" at risk)... The only one who is RARELY grumpy is the casino owner (who just takes the vig from both sides)... Or, perhaps, the person who sits around and collects a paycheck from somebody, but sits around and blogs all day on his employers time...

As for the REAL RISK bunch... And the casino operators who take their vig... There IS actually a way to make him grumpy... How do you do that? Easy! You take away all the clients... The FED, the banks, & the politicians are the casino owners here, and they simply don't understand a world where all the former "gung-ho" clients have had their pockets emptied, and are trying desperately to go back home with the last token of bus fare in their pockets...

They'll do everything in their power to shut down the bus terminal, keep you in town, and convince you to bet that last token on a shiny new machine that's a guaranteed winner...

Yours truly is sick of this game, and that's why I'm grumpy... I'm sick of the game, I'm sick of the casino owners, I'm sick of the "promoters" of the casinos, I'm sick of the conned people, I'm sick of the gargantuan efforts to enlighten the conned people, I'm sick of the fact that most of this has been brought out into full daylight, yet people still don't choose another path, and MOST OF ALL, I'm sick of hypocrites who try to play both sides...

Yes, you hypocrites know who you are...

You're the "Wall Streeters" who blog about a housing crisis, write a book, get a bunch of little elves to follow you around... Then, the CRISIS you predicted finaly becomes manifest... YOU'RE A HERO!... So how do you celebrate your accomplishment?... You sit there and watch a policy response that you must KNOW is doomed to eventually create an even deeper problem, and negatively effect the lives of tens of thousands (if not millions) of people... And do you complain about that?... No! And why? Because the "failed policy" response, in this case, happens to allow YOURSELF to feed at the trough...

It's a sin when mortgage brokers were pushing Ponzi finance scemes onto the market under the guise of a housing bubble, but now that that has all collapsed, and you have the FED trying to keep asset prices afloat, you're using the liquidity and leverage which is created in that process... And your rationale for doing so is...

"Do you want to be right? or do you want to make money"... Hmmm, it seems to me that the people you were railing against 5 years ago were saying the same thing at the time...

Probably the only thing more more comical than your hypocrisy, are your little school of PILOT FISH, who hang around your little "losers come all" open cocktail party (and add their contributions to the crapheap)...

Earlier this week, before a class, I got into a discussion at the gym about this "so-called" PROBLEM that is bantered about in the blogosphere all day long...

I explained that THE PROBLEM is simply that we're facing something CANNOT FIXED... At this point in time, it's in broad daylight, and yet everyone is standing around wondering what they should do... It's a cadaver people... There's no pulse, and it's not breathing... You're only wasting time and medicine by trying to bring it back to life...

Market BEARS know this... It's only a matter of time... Now, that TIME thing is tricky because the longer TIME goes on, the more opportunity there is for people to believe that the cadaver is not, in fact, dead... "Ooh, I think I saw a twitch there, did you see it? There was a twitch!"... NO PULSE, NO RESPIRATION, and you're talking to me about twitches that you think you saw?

I think that's the thing that irritates me the most (having to stand around and listen to all the rationalizations of all the people who think this can be fixed)...

"Oh well, I KNOW it's all going to fail, but hey look! AAPL is at $300"... "GOOG was up 10% last night"... "Gold is going to the moon"... "Oh we're SURE to take out the April 1220 highs by the end of the year"... "These markets will stay supported thru the elections, stay long!"...

There should be a law that says any company that invented this should

be BARRED from having a $300 stock price...

Anyway, all of the desire to grasp on FALSE HOPE INDICATORS isn't really helping the problem...

There is actually a bright side to all of this (for me)... Most people (most "Americans" - I should say), are woefully unprepared for a serious collapse... Despite the enormous measures I've taken to gain a degree of self sufficiency over the past couple of years, I still consider myself behind the curve... That's mostly because, over time, and in preparation, you start realizing things that you'd never considered before...

So this "stalling", this "kicking the can" down the road, has actually given me more time to accomplish things without having to do it in a hasty manner... It's like a "hobby" now...

But a warning to you all... If I've been at this a couple of years now, (and I still feel unprepared)... Well - just think about that for a minute... I will guarantee you that nobody could prepare themselves properly (even if they were given a guaranteed one months notice)... 

And don't expect that "notice" to come along... Like they say... "Nobody rings a bell at the top"...

And as for headaches... If this blog gives you one, then I suggest you not read it... Or otherwise take an ASSpirin...

Or, as I've heard... Some medicines can be taken this way, and are the preferred method used by the company they keep...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Don't believe the hype. Lying can only get you so far. Until the Reaper appears (aka Foreclosure Felon's brother).

SPX
Hanging man day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Back below 1177.84 (the .0344 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1165.15). QE2infinity (aka the beginning of the end).



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested its 85.4% retrace at 76.29 and passed. Well below 78.41 (.0557 from low). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 77.32).



VIX
Bullish short day (failed to bullish thrusting which is good). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.21). Escaped the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish short day. Way above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed above new 0% retrace (time for another 0%). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1354.40).



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3840). Table throwing at the G20?



JNK
Bearish engulfing day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed back below the 100% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.01).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day (closed gap). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 has held. Still below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60) and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 23.81).



DJ TRANS AVG
Hanging man day (and formed a bearish harami). Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4583.57).



TLT
Bearish long day. Closed below SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below its 23.6% retrace and upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 104.22). Falling/declining wedge to be broken to the downside?




GOOG
Bearish short day. Tested and failed the 50% retrace. Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 538.23). Closed above monthly 3LB mid last week.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: My first cousin is named Foreclosure Felon.

SPX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Above 1177.84 (the .0344 fibo from high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1165.15). QE2infinity (aka the beginning of the end).



DXY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below its 76.4% retrace at 77.60. Also below 78.41 (.0557 from low). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 77.39).



VIX
Bullish long day (also bullish thrusting). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.21). Still hanging out in the "no fear" zone (yeah right).



GOLD
Bullish long day. Way above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed above new 0% retrace (time for another 0%). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1340.30).



EURUSD
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3772).



JNK
Bullish long day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed back above the 100% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.01).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day (failed to close gap). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 has held. Still below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60) and all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.56).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day (quit setting the hanging men free). Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4583.57).



CRB
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Held the Gann 1x1. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 295.11).




XLF
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed to close above SMA(144)---see Aug 3rd. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.89).

Morning Audibles 10.13.10

With futures slightly green this morning, we're getting very near the 1174-1175 zone (where many traders around here have been calling as an area, basically, where "the bullet hits the bone"...

CV has been pointing out for several weeks now that there was evidence (at least the way I see things), that Mr. Market was not only looking for a certain PRICE level, but that it was also marking TIME... I presented some of the following charts a few weeks ago, but I'll update them here...

If my observations are correct, a "corrective" move should begin within 6 trading days... It may have already begun and/or could start at any time... It is quite possible, given the number of bearish divergences, and the nature of the last "correction", that the move could happen without warning, and be quite steep... I would expect the "feel" of the move (as it's happening) to convert a lot of newly minted bulls, back to bears, in a flash... In any case... The GREEN BOX area is what I'd be looking for... 

This a look at the VIX WEEKLY... One of my favorite indicators of "corrective" moves that come without warning is when the candles touch the lower BB's... Mind you, this is a WEEKLY VIX, so a touch can be made, then nothing happens for several days... In any case, we're getting very close... Another way of looking at this is when the upper BB band gets itself down around the 30 level... Often that brings about 1-3 days of long white candles only to come back and resume trend afterwards... The bottom line is that this VIX chart complements the SPY chart with respect to some of the TIME elements mentioned before...

Of course, if none of this really interests you, because you're a bull, and care more about making money, than being right, you could simply go about your merry way and "sext" fotos of your @ssets to this girl right here...

J! - E! - T! - S!

JETS! - JETS! - JETS!

First though... You might want to check to make sure that she's not on the payroll of the company you work for (or you'd risk a "harrassment" or "misconduct" case)...

Does anybody know how the SEC handles things like this? I'm thinking this guy, after the VIKINGS lose their next game, and he tosses 3 more interceptions, might be getting himself a job at the SEC (and I'm NOT talking "South Eastern Conference")...

The last I heard, his wife was chasing him out of the house hitting him with a football helmet and he was crashing his tractor into a tree... Stay tuned...