Morning Audibles 9.22.10

And then there was one...

So I suppose everybody has heard the news that Snaglepuss Larry Summers is..

Otherwise known as: jumping ship, gettin' while the gittin's good, skippin town, gettin' the hell out of dodge...


Well, here's the OFFICIAL version (or one of 'em)...

Larry Summers leaving White House

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/09/21/larry-summers-leaving-whi_n_733711.html

The Obamanator remarked: "I will always be grateful that at a time of great peril for our country, a man of Larry's brilliance, experience and judgment was willing to answer the call and lead our economic team. Over the past two years, he has helped guide us from the depths of the worst recession since the 1930s to renewed growth. And while we have much work ahead to repair the damage done by the recession, we are on a better path thanks in no small measure to Larry's wise counsel. We will miss him here at the White House, but I look forward to soliciting his continued advice and his counsel on an informal basis, and appreciate that he has agreed to serve as a member of the President's Economic Advisory Board."

Translation: The stock market has been up all month, I just gave a telethon yesterday, and it was perfectly coordinated with some BS numbers by NBER & POMO activity by the Fed, so it ain't gonna get much better than this going forward...

Larry Summers, the director of the National Economic Council, will return to a teaching position at Harvard University at the end of the year...

In the interim "lame duck" period, and since he already has the proper costume, it's rumored he'll be kickin' it on the DEVO ('De-Evolution '10) World Tour...

"life's a bee without a buzz... It's going great, til u get stung..."
"And let us not forget to toast
everyone who might have missed the boat
And to everybody else who waits
Til the next one sails in again..."

Whatever Larry... Now that you've JERKED US BACK & FORTH for the 2nd time, don't let the door hit you in the ass as you BEAT IT, back to the Ivory Towers...

Or in your case...

Save Romer some pie for the re-union...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: Repeat after me: imagine what happens when there are no shorts to buy back...

SPX
Bearish thrusting day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above all SMA's. Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high) and heading for 1151.86 (the .0557 fib form high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1121.90). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 80.95 (.09 fib from low). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 82.05).



VIX
Bullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.89). Trending down on daily 3LB.



GOLD
Bearish short day (no gap up so not a shooting star). Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed retest of 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1270.20).



JNK
Bearish engulfing day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed the 85.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.50).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 has been holding (for now). Back below the 14.6% retrace (26.94), still below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60) and now below the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.99).



AUDJPY
Spinning top day. Held its 61.8% retrace. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 79.5419).



EURJPY
Spinning top day. Above all SMA's (go figure). Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed above 23.6% retrace at 111.2083. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 108.0800).



TLT
Bullish long day. Tested and held the SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 101.26).




CRB
Bearish short day. Failed test of 100% retrace at 280.69. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 274.27).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish short day. Holding above the upper trendline and all SMA's. There's a lot of hair on these daily candles. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4450.73). Trending up on the daily 3LB.

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 9.21.10

The FOMC statement provided the two things that the Treasury market wanted to hear: the economy remains weak, and yes, indeed, there will be POMOs. In fact there are POMOs scheduled this week, so why not front-run those suckers right now? So they did... and the last run of Treasuries which had been under water, broke the surface.

It was a risk-off day. IG outperformed HY and Ts outperformed everything. There was also a massive flattener, but even 2y USTs reached another record low yield. Even TIPS were bid, and so was gold, which is a clear sign that all that liquidity has to go somewhere.

Corpies: LQD 0.76%; AGG 0.43%; JNK -0.28%; HYG -0.17%;
Govies: TLT 1.39%; IEI 0.49%; TIP 1.28%
Hedgies: TBT -2.72%

We think bearish economic data may lie ahead, and that this move in Treasuries continues for 2-3 days with POMOs dead ahead. We also think this may be the last Hurrah, and that investors should take advantage of this rally in Ts and IG corporates to quietly leave the building, exchanging these instruments with eager arrivistes before turning out the lights on the Treasury market for a few months.

We will be unloading more of our AGG and LQD this week. What we will do with the cash is another question, but we would be buyers of a pull-back in JNK and in equities.

Morning Audibles - 9.21.10

Here we go with a new thread, if it becomes "convoluted", I'm sure someone will be along to fix it...


What's "convoluted" to me is that we're on DAY 13 of THE TELETHON...

C'Mon Everybody! Let's Raise Money for Barry's Kids!

- Let's raise the stock market
- Let's raise taxes
- Let's raise hope (now that the "Summer of Hope" was a bust)
- Please Dog - Let's raise our vote count

The Only Part That Mattered In Obama's Telethon

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=167032

From KD


"Let me direct you to the only question that had value from an investment perspective:



SANTELLI: Mr. President. If I were to ask an investor would he invest in a company that for every dollar it spent it had to borrow 42 cents, I think that investor would think long and hard. Now if you look at the amount of money the government takes in and the amount of spending, those are pretty much the numbers for our government right now.


Does it bother you that 42 percent of our spending is borrowed even understanding that we have to deficit spend under tough times. How long can the U.S. continue to spend in that fashion without potentially hurting our long time financial health.


OBAMA: Well, it bothers me a lot. It bothered me when I was running for office and it bothered me when I arrived and I had a $1.3 trillion deficit wrapped in a bow and waiting for me in the Oval Office.


So, the answer to Rick's question is we've got to do something about it. And we have to do something about it fairly rapidly. The first thing you do is not dig it deeper. That's why this tax debate is important. We can't give $700 billion away to some of America's wealthiest people. We've got to make sure we're responsible for our budget, that's point #1....


The one thing I have to say to the public is that about 60 percent of our budget is entitlements, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. And a lot of the discretion I have is somewhat limited on these programs.


Now part of the reason health-care reform was so important is because the biggest driver of our long term budget deficits is Medicare. If our economy is growing at 2 or 3 or 4 percent, but health care costs are going up 6, or 7 or 8 percent, than the budget will blow up no matter how many cuts I make in other programs..."

Worst Over in Global Poll Pointing to Reduced Market Returns

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-21/worst-over-for-investors-in-global-poll-pointing-to-reduced-market-returns.html

For you applied logic afficianados, do some math on this algebraic equation...

(a)"Three out of five global investors say the world economy has weathered the financial crisis and has stabilized two years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

(b)Few believe the economy is recovering, with only (c)one in six of those surveyed describing it as expanding, according to a global quarterly poll of 1,408 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers. (d) Forty-one percent aren’t convinced the financial situation is stable and say further turbulence is likely."

A+B+C+D = drumroll please - cue Jeopardy music...

“When taken as a whole, the world has stabilized,” says Uzi Zimmerman, a respondent to the Bloomberg Global Poll..."

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OK... It's probably my CONVOLUTED logic here that doesn't allow me to understand how and why:

- the world has stabilized
- Equity markets have risen 9% in September with no correction, (and 14% in the quarter - which often happens in functioning bull markets)...
- Bloomberg blames the "crisis" on "Lehman"
- Obama blames the crisis on "Bush"
- The solution for all these problems is MORE (growth, taxes, prices, convolution, whatever)

I'm clearly suffering from some form of logic dystrophy so I'm going to need help...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: New highs on no volume. That's one of my illusions. Now imagine what happens when there are no shorts to buy back...

SPX
Bullish long day. Demolished the last two doji days. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above all SMA's. Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high) and heading for 1151.86 (the .0557 fib form high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1121.90). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 82.40).



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.89). Trending down on daily 3LB.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Indecision, indecision. How long before BB cries out "No mas!" Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1270.20).



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Should have seen more movement. Something's about to give. Midpoint above EMA(10). Testing the 38.2% retrace. Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2695).



JNK
Spinning top day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed the 85.4% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.50).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 has been holding. Still above the 14.6% retrace (26.94) and below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.99).



AUDJPY
Bullish long day. Now above its 61.8% retrace. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 79.4047).



TLT
Spinning top day. Tested and held the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 102.79). Trending down on the daily 3LB.



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day. Holding above the upper trendline and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4447.44). Trending up on the daily 3LB.

Sunday Evening Post & Monday Morning Audibles

Good Evening All,

It was an interesting week with the S&P Cash market failing to take out the 1131 once again. That level is indeed the "Ultra Pivot." It's worth pointing out, however, that the futures DID take out the proposed "neckline" in the pre-market on Friday morning and then FAILED. It looked quite bearish pre-market, but the cash index "hung in there" before the weekend.

It was several weeks ago when I suggested that we were in the middle of "choppy" and complex period--that has definitely been the case. At this point, though, we seem to be nearing the end of the "choppy" period and it seems like a good idea to increase our short position. We'll be going from a 20% Max Short to a 30% Max Short this evening.

The DXY took an unexpected dip this week that stopped me out of all DXY length. I still like that market for a long side bet, but the pattern is a little too confusing at this point. It's something that will need more analysis this week.

Random "Football" Thought: Can anyone beat Chelsea? The Blues seem somewhat unstoppable at this point. They are 5-0 having scored 17 times and allowing only ONE goal. Those are some gaudy numbers.


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CV adds, 9.20.10... As ususal, I'll let Andy's column stand as the Monday Morning Audibles in the abscence of some major news event...


CV is looking, "hoping" really, for the end of this 8+% in September... I should be happier this weekend because it ended up positive versus the bookie, & all 3 of my fantasy teams won (well - one isn't over yet, but the other guy needs the Saints to basically shut down the 49ers, and engineer 4 sacks 4 turnovers and a trip to the end zone)... But ya never know... 


Put it this way... that's about what the dollar needs to get going (and to get a correction in PM's), but we all know where that's going...


The downside (to my weekend)... Is only that I put about 6 hours of work into the yard on Saturday morning (mostly leaf duty)... Left to move some furniture to the farm... Come back this morning and there are now more leaves down than when I left Saturday... Kinda feels like trying to "short" any asset prices...


Nobody wants me to attach any Bloomberg headlines here because they would just piss you off... Or, if your thinking lines up with certain hues of pastel... You could debate them as functioned reasoning... I don't have time...


There - now I feel better :-)... ROR


Good Luck Trading!

Some sage words from Milton Friedman.....

S&P Update 19 Sep 10