AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: I'm headed up the coast. See you soon Wall St.

SPX
Spinning top day. Morning star formation? Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below the trendline (3/6/09-7/1//10). Passed the third test of 1041.83 (.1459 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1071.69). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Held the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 83.31).




VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below weekly 3LB mid but above monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 27.46).



GOLD
Bullish long day. Keeps resolving dojis higher. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still heading towards the 0%. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1230.10).



EURUSD
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Still failing the 4x1 Gann. It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2654).



JNK
Bullish short day. Still failing to close gap. Still above the SMA(89) and above the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 is held. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 26.85).



AUDJPY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed the 23.6% retrace at 75.5696. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.1783).



DJ TRANS AVG
Spinning top day. Still below the upper trendline and the SMA(233). Still below the SMA(55) and SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4236.96). Still below weekly 3LB reversal price.



SLV
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Above the 85.4% retrace heading for the 100%. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 19.12).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 8.31.10

A risk-off flattener day. You got that, right? The long end was strongest today and 2s10s declined to about 199 bps. Corporate bonds remained strong, and the long bond reached a 3.52% low yield. High yield had a good day, all things considered.

Corpies: LQD 0.34%; AGG 0.07%; JNK 0.34%; HYG -0.03%;
Govies: TLT 1.19%; IEI 0.18%; TIP 0.28%
Hedgies: TBT -2.24%

We sold some AGG today. We are hedged against our remaining fixed income exposure. We are not bullish on bonds here, and see significant rate risk growing here, especially in Treasuries of which we are short.

Oh and just so you can hate me, I am long equities as well.

Morning Audibles 8.31.10 - No Matter What - We Get Out of This...

You didn't have to wait until this morning to get this... You could have had it last night if you were paying attention...

(from ZH)


"EURCHF has just taken out all stops as it plunged by almost 60 pips in the span of a few minutes as Japan opens... Which opened about 2% down... Which goes to show just the idiocy levels of our markets - there was nothing incremental from last night's BoJ decision, so the Nikkei should have been dropping then. But instead it decided to trade way higher and only plunge once Made In New York Atari algos told it it was safe to plunge.

Either way, set your alarm clocks to around 5 am, which is when the SNB tends to intervene most often, and have those upside EURCHF stops ready, as the pair is wound so tight it is just waiting for the Hildebrand match: the (very temporary) bounce, which will cost the SNB another CHF10 billion will likely send the CHF about 150-200 pips lower, only to retrace all losses imminently."

In any case... It's not NOTHING... But amongst Hindenburg Omens, Cardinal Crosses, Death Crosses, 200MA tickdowns, PPT "open market" activity... It's just AMAZING to me how this RASPUTIN of a market manages to skip along in it's "DL" like state of calm, and even (as was the case this past weekend), manage to convince bears that they should be COVERING and COWERING in the corner...


This is TWO DAYS IN A ROW that CV is featuring "Deep Purple" on this blog... Frankly, I hadn't expected to do so yesterday... But Monday  (and, in fact, THIS WHOLE SUMMER has got me wondering)... Which is... Frankly... a state I've been in for more than 18 months... But delay after delay beats even a resolute soul down... After all, CV doesn't enjoy the luxury of vacationing & "kickin' it with the lap dogs" as others seem to have mastered the art of...


My retort to the tourists & lapdoggers of the world...

We all came out to Montreux...

On the Lake Geneva shoreline...

To make records with a mobile

We didn't have much time...

Frank Zappa and the Mothers...

Were at the best place around...

But some stupid with a flare gun

Burned the place to the ground...

Smoke on the water, a fire in the sky... Smoke on the water...

They burned down the gamblin' house,

It died with an awful sound...

And Funky Claude was running in and out

Pulling kids out the ground...

When it all was over

We had to find another place...

But Swiss time was running out

It seemed that we would lose the race...

Smoke on the water, a fire in the sky, Smoke on the water...

We ended up at the Grand Hotel

It was empty cold and bare...

But with the Rolling truck Stones thing just outside

Making our music there...

With a few red lights and a few old beds

W

e made a place to sweat...

No matter what we get out of this...

I know, I know we'll never forget...

Smoke on the water, a fire in the sky... Smoke on the water...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water...

SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below the trendline (3/6/09-7/1//10). Still holding 1041.83 again (.1459 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1071.69). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day. Back above the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 83.31).




VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still holding below weekly 3LB mid but above monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 27.46).



GOLD
Doji day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still holding onto gains (heading towards the 0%). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1227.00).



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Still failing the 4x1 Gann. It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2654).



JNK
Bearish short day. Still failing to close gap. Still above the SMA(89) and above the SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Still confirming inverted hammer. The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 is holding. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 27.81).



AUDJPY
Bearish long day. Tested but failed the SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed below the 23.6% retrace at 75.5696. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.1783).



YEN (FXY)
Bullish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above the 14.6% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 117.63).




DJ TRANS AVG
Bearish long day. Back below the upper trendline and the SMA(233). Still below the SMA(55) and SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4236.96). Back below weekly 3LB reversal price.

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 8.30.10

A risk-off day in credit. LB is not a chartist, or a Fib merchant, but the moves in LQD, TLT and TBT were close to a 61.8% retrace of Friday's bloodbath.... today was a flattener, with the 7-10y being very strong. IG outperformed HY, and TIPS were well bid on a POMO day.

Corpies: LQD 0.65%; AGG 0.68%; JNK -0.10%; HYG 0.18%;
Govies: TLT 1.91%; IEI 0.52%; TIP 0.45%
Hedgies: TBT -3.73%

TLT is either making a lower high here, or else it will continue to surge higher as yields drive lower and lower on "the economy" and "the FED".

We tend to think that there will be a pull-back in Treasuries here, so we are hedging our fixed income for now. We are long AGG, LQD, JNK and HYG in various proportions.

For now, we are in the camp that says 1040 holds, yields have put in their lows, and there will eventually be a move out along the risk curve. If there is a decisive break of 1040, we will obviously re-evaluate.

Sunday Evening Post & Morning Audibles

Good Evening Capitalists,

I've actual written this yesterday because I'm on Galveston Island this weekend celebrating my oldest daughter's 13th birthday. Life moves quickly!

The short term bullish DXY count is 'hanging on by a thread,' with 82.60 being key near term support. A break down below that level would mean several days of congestion back to prices as low as 81.40 for next week. This would be consistent with the near-term bearish view on Ten Year notes.

The S&P futures ricocheted sharply off of the last line of support (1036) identified last weekend. This market looks headed higher this week. New bulls should use 1054 and 1037 and first and second levels of support for new length.

We remain 20% short S&P futures--it's amazing how relaxing trading is when you don't 'trade,' and just hold a core position.

We remain 40% long the DXY, but will reduce the position back to 20% on a break below 82.60, taking profits on the "double down" from a few weeks ago.

Hope everyone had a great weekend!

Market Update 29 Aug 10

MONDAY MORNING UPDATE (by CV)

Overnight, the yen had been weaker in anticipation of a FX move by the BOJ... Alas -

(from Bloomberg:)

The Bank of Japan expanded a bank- loan program, stepping up its monetary stimulus for the first time since March after the economy’s recovery weakened and the government pressured the central bank to act.

The BOJ will boost the amount of funds in the facility by 10 trillion yen ($116 billion) to a total of 30 trillion, the bank said in a statement after an emergency meeting in Tokyo. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa led the gathering after cutting short a U.S. trip in the wake of increasing calls from politicians for the BOJ to help stem a surge in the yen to a 15-year high.

Today’s decision reflects rising concern about growth in advanced economies that sent global stocks tumbling in the past three weeks. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke three days ago signaled a willingness to implement further steps if needed to avert another U.S. recession, in a speech that triggered a gain in stocks and the dollar.

“The BOJ’s additional loosening alone may not be sufficient to reverse the market’s trend, but it could make it easier for the Japanese market to ride the waves of a global market recovery,” Takuji Aida, senior Japan economist at UBS AG in Tokyo, said before the announcement.

The bank-loan program that the BOJ is expanding was set up in early December in response to a November climb in the yen to the highest level since 1995. That mark was breached this month, when the currency hit 83.60 per dollar.

The yen recouped some of its losses after the announcement, trading at 85.55 as of 12:19 p.m. in Tokyo today. Any moves in the currency market today may be exaggerated by a U.K. holiday, closing the world’s biggest market for foreign-exchange trading.

---

Monday is undoubtedly going to be difficult to handicap... Piled on to this is the fact that London is closed today and that tomorrow is the end of the month (headed into a 3 day holiday in the US next week)...

Expect the markets to be somewhat schizo... In other "more subtle" news, McHugh posted that there had been a 5th Hindenburg Omen triggered on Fridays action... This was later disputed by some H.O. purists... CV is not a "purist" by nature... I'm more like Al Davis "JUST WIN BABY"... In any case, barring semantics, there was the "spirt" of a H.O. on Friday... That makes a cluster of 5 in a period since August 12th...

Bulls will be looking to extend the rally started on Friday... Failure to do so will snatch the ball right out of their hands... In the end, this may turn out to be a big 'ol sideways moves (with scary breakouts and breakdowns all along the way)...

Kind of reminds me of August-Sept '08...