"The animal spirit exorcism has commenced."
Creditcane™: REPETERE AD INFINITUM: CAVEAT EMPTOR.
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and failed the 0.0% retrace (1463.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1432.12). QE2infinity.
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above the 50.0% retrace (78.72). Still failing all SMA's. No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 79.89).
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Now failing its 0.0% retrace (14.27). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 14.38).
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (1730.90). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1740.50). Must have the precious.
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Still failing its 38.2% retrace (1.3127). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2870).
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (40.10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.38).
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (17.47). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.82).
Spinning top day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 38.2% retrace (95.94). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 99.33).
Doji day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (32.15). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.41).
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (50.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 49.29).
Bearish long day. Tested and failed SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (0.7722). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7645).
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 38.2% retrace (3.673). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.688).
Bearish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (702.33). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 691.28).
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (41.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.64).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
7 comments:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/09/fhfa-to-states-that-uphold-the-rule-of-law-drop-dead.html
FHFA to States that Uphold the Rule of Law: Drop Dead
If you had any doubt that the ongoing coup by bankers and their allies was proceeding apace, the latest story from Shahien Nasiripour of the Financial Times should settle all doubts.
The pink paper reports that Fannie and Freddie’s regulator, the FHFA, plans to punish impose surcharges on borrowers in states like New York because foreclosures take longer there. This is the excuse, erm, rationale:
US borrowers in states where home foreclosures are costly and time-consuming will have to pay more for their mortgages, the top housing regulator has proposed.
Lenders originating new loans in New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Florida and Connecticut will be forced to pay US-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac up to 30 basis points extra for their credit guarantee, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said in its proposal.
The fee would probably be passed on to borrowers. The agency said the surcharge would compensate for the increased cost of repossessing homes in the five states, costs ultimately borne by US taxpayers.
And the FHFA was open in that its aim was to put state law on its Procrustean bed:
“If those states were to adjust their laws and requirements sufficiently to move their foreclosure timelines and costs more in line with the national average . . . the fees imposed under the planned approach would be lowered or eliminated,” the FHFA said.
Now the reality, of course, is more complicated. The two mortgage insurers have refused to crack down on foreclosure mills despite overwhelming evidence of their failure to comply with long-established state law requirements. When the robosigning scandal broke, many judges in judicial foreclosure states started taking borrower challenges to servicer standing more seriously. New York’s courts instituted a requirement that lawyers submitting documents in foreclosures certify that they had taken reasonable steps to certify their accuracy. This might sound like a belt-and-suspenders requirement, but from a procedural standpoint, it made it easier for borrower’s counsel to seek sanctions if he though the bank’s attorney was playing fast and loose. And indeed, as we’ve documented, foreclosures ground to a near halt after the certification requirement was instituted.
GSE's trying to force states to cry "Uncle!" I call BS.
The g-fee increase, referenced above, has been known for a long time and the GSEs are just now getting to it. They have been mandated to increase these fees in order to protect tax payers (who are, after all, bank-rolling Fannie and Freddie) from losses on more risky mortgages. States in which recovery is hindered have riskier mortgages and the g-fees should reflect that. Below market g-fees are part of the reason those companies are in conservatorship in the first place. Anyone bitching about more realistic g-fees doesn't understand economics.
Foreclosure risk represents just one factor in the g-fee. For example, the 30y mortgages are considered riskier than 15-year mortgages, so the bulk of g-fee increases are being levied on 30y mortgages.
The big take-away from this for investors (in mortgage backed securities) is that the cuspier coupons will have somewhat subdued call risk. Last time I looked, I think that the Fannie 3.5s from the 2011 vintage were already paying a surprising 35 CPR (or something close to that).
Matthew
"States in which recovery is hindered have riskier mortgages and the g-fees should reflect that."
But the states are only hindering because the foreclosures are flawed (due to many things but most likely due to title problems).
Weekly 3LB Update 9/21/12
Upsets, comebacks and last second wins. What a great day of football.
Amazing that the market is back to unchanged. Figures.
New.
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