Creditcane™: REPETERE AD INFINITUM: CAVEAT EMPTOR.
Dragonfly doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Now failing the 0.0% retrace (1463.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1432.12). QE2infinity.
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above the 50.0% retrace (78.72). Still failing all SMA's. No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 79.89).
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (14.27). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.60).
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (1730.90). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1705.60). Must have the precious.
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Still failing its 38.2% retrace (1.3127). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2870).
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (40.10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.38).
Bullish short day. Tested and failed SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (17.47). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.82).
Bullish thrusting day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 38.2% retrace (95.94). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 99.33).
Bullish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (32.15). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.41).
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (50.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 49.29).
Bearish short day. Tested and held SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (0.7722). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7645).
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 38.2% retrace (3.673). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.688).
Doji day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now failing its 0.0% retrace (702.33). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 691.28).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
3 comments:
Take this for what it is worth. I've been told by dealers of two separate instances of slow money selling IG bonds into big BWICs and switching into other asset classes. In my experience, this is kind of rare, given that most money stays within an asset class and just sloshes around between sectors (and cash).
I don't know the who or what, but I'll just throw this theory out there. I think some pension funds are getting a little too bold and could be switching from their immunization strategies (i.e., liability defeasance) into total return strategies (you know, the same strategies that made them overweight equities in 2000 and 2007, leading to their severely underfunded states.
If this becomes a small trend (i.e., asset/liability mismatches across the corporate and municipal spectrum), I would expect equities and commodities to catch a marginal bid.
I hope I'm wrong (think of the pensioners being thrown under the bus by their investment committees), but I wouldn't put it past any money manager right now to throw caution to the wind and start risking to chase a rally that already happened.
Matthew
It's hard to go long when you're so close to all time highs. Some are willing to take that chance. I'd rather be a spectator. Plus the EU rumors are flying again so things must be getting worse.
It's funny that the MSM keeps hyping that EU officials are working on a bailout for Spain while Spain & Italy have said they won't seek a bailout unless yields surge.
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