There are some good levels identified in this one...please enjoy.
S&P 500 Commentary 20Feb12
In Honor of one of the Presidents being remembered this weekend:
Gettysburg Address:
Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.
Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle-field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.
But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate -- we can not consecrate -- we can not hallow -- this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us -- that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion -- that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain -- that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.
- ABRAHAM Lincoln
39 comments:
Already the "press conference" is over two hours late and no appearance from the Eurogroup. I guess the PSI isn't working out the way they hoped.
Thanks Andy. AAIP had a link to someone with a multi-year megaphone pattern that could possibly lead to a very nasty down move.
"that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain -- that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.
~~~
One of my goddamned most favorites quotes of all time (I had that speech pinned up on my bedroom wall all the way until I was 17 yo and bolted the hell out of there for "supposedly" greener pastures)...
As for the REALITY of the consecration???
We shall see... I suppose... Because I'm not sure "piss in her pants Fergie"
http://www.hilaryshepherd.com/rantsnraves/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/fergie-pee.jpg
& her BLACK EYED PEAS homies really understand...
~~~~
THEY b the future...
Not some TIRED old "former mullet havin" jackass "uni-bomber" like myself could even comprehend...
http://sphotos.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash2/38180_427787576184_48037131184_4755761_7657923_n.jpg
Andy T
Looking at the megaphone pattern it appears the upper range for SPX in 2012 is 1591-1593. If you use the extreme highs and lows for fibonacci it also shows the SPX is battling the minor 38.2% retrace (1361.42). I hope you don't mind as I add the chart to the end of your post.
Fellas,
The megaphone or "broadening pattern" is widely considered one of the more unreliable patterns by most market techs, Bulkowski refers to it as a "poor performer"
certainly doesn't make the outlook wrong but it should be given a lower probability of being the correct outlook
in looking over AAIP's link you have to notice the extremely high level of subjectivity required in calling each of those price formations the same thing and the letter included a very small sample size of the pattern at that degree of scale
I've seen them referred to as megaphones in most texts but Bulkowski doesn't have a megaphone on his site and he's the only one that has attempted to quantify all of these at this point:
http://thepatternsite.com/bt.html
excellent update AT, given evidence the last 3 weeks, such as COT positioning among others, I believe a small degree short squeeze is currently underway, like you within the next several trading days I'm expecting a short term top to form and a retracement as a result
thanks man
Thanks ben22
ben22
Since I was just using trend lines for the "megaphone" the upper trend line is from 1591-1593 in 2012.
If I was using CB's theory of fibos then 1370 would be the 0.0% retrace. What I find interesting is that it still lines up with the 38.2% minor retrace.
http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/thebearslairview?art_id=10633
Machines From Hell
quote:
"The second question, and the more difficult one, is what we can do to prevent the Machines from Hell from destroying our economy. In most cases, the cure is still available, albeit painful. Greece must be thrown out of the euro (thereby halving its living standards but restarting its economy) and draconian deflation imposed on the other PIIGS, under the threat of similar retribution. China must recapitalize its banks, borrowing the money from international markets to do so (thereby liquidating its $3 trillion of foreign exchange reserves). Quantitative easing must be replaced by Volckerite monetary policy, with the chips falling where they may in government financing and banking systems. Social Security and Medicare eligibility must be delayed until 70 (easy) and the various scams and “free lunches” in the medical arena must be ended – bringing major short-term pain but a long-term fall in medical costs that will benefit everybody. Volckerite monetary policy must be combined with a tight “Volcker Rule” separating deposit-taking from speculation (and tax incentives for setting up mutualized deposit-taking institutions similar to the British building societies). Above all, “too big to fail” most be abolished, deposit insurance cut back, the government removed from housing and rules established to ensure that the Fed (if it is allowed to exist) follows monetary policies equivalent to a Gold Standard in their effect on prices and markets.
Most likely, the Machines from Hell will be allowed to rumble on unchecked. In that case, collapse of our economic system is inevitable."
SPX Around 1294 was a probable turn point, then we thought 1325, now near 1375 the new top?
some stuff i found while out trying to find where the SPX will top or looking for the end of the internet, which ever comes 1st...
Charts-A-Pallooza
SPX trend
Put/Call Ratio Visualization
SP500 weekly chart as of Fri Feb 17 - Despite mixed signals, FX markets today suggest stock bearish.
stock cycle calculator
Pain First, Gains Ahead - chart 1
1474 (or thereabouts) bitchez...
On other 'predictions' themes...
A "PRE GLANCE" at cv's 2012 OSCARS PREDICTIONS for this weekend...
(unfinalized)
http://fantasy-sports-nation.blogspot.com/
The Eurogroup may have "agreed" to a deal for Greece but there is still no agreement on the PSI. Just enough BS to drive the headline algos into an orgasmic frenzy.
02-21-2012
the 'day/month' gives you what you need for 'the year'..
~~
also, re: 'Megaphone'..
I have no real Opinion about it..thought it was 'Interesting'..
will say that, this: "...you have to notice the extremely high level of subjectivity required in calling each of those price formations the same thing..."
went through my mind, as well..
though, I will say that 'that Formation' doesn't strike me as 'Bullish'..~
AAIP
Still doesn't appear that futures are putting too much faith in the "agreement".
EURUSD down 70 bps from its overnight high.
Oscar predictions?
And if they don't win? Will it be because I only picked them 60% like the Superbowl?
And what does unfinalized mean? These are picks I made in my manic phase and I'll have to be sure I like them when I'm depressed too?
Nimrod. Go out and melt some nickels...give Madonna a call, maybe she'll send you some.
Who cares about your picks? Your momma?
...(Bloomberg) — Hedge Funds Boost Bullish Wagers to Five-Month High: Commodities
Hedge funds increased commodity bets to the highest in almost five months on signs that a rescue plan for Greece and faster U.S. growth will buoy demand as supplies shrink for everything from soybeans to copper.
Money managers boosted net-long position across 18 U.S. futures and options by 2.9 percent to 956,313 contracts in the week ended Feb. 14, the most since Sept. 20, government data show. Soybean wagers jumped 29 percent to a five-month high. Silver holdings rose for a seventh straight week, the longest advance in almost three years.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities reached a six-month high on Feb. 17 as euro-area leaders expressed confidence that an agreement on a Greek bailout can be reached. Reports last week on U.S. housing and manufacturing beat analysts’ forecasts, and claims for jobless benefits dropped to a four-year low. Investments in raw-material futures have jumped 13 percent this year, exchange data show....
http://taoistmonk.com/
ibid.
@Ra,
didnt get a chance to reply to you last night, home computer is all jacked up right now
anyway, like your chart, that is interesting on the fibo's
I'm reading this book by CB right now:
http://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Trading-Professional-Second/dp/007175914X
@Bruce
LOL...It's tradition...
market anthropology
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AFv5_PwGMU
cv--
also, re: Beisbol..
KCR is a team, finally, to keep 'an eye peeled for'..
&
Google's new fiber backbone to provide fastest overall Internet access in U.S.
Google Fiber Blog: "We’ve measured utility poles; we’ve studied maps and surveyed neighborhoods; we’ve come up with a comprehensive set of detailed engineering plans; and we’ve eaten way too much barbecue. Now, starting [February 6, 2012], we’re ready to lay fiber. As we build out Google Fiber, we’ll be taking thousands of miles of cables and stretching them across Kansas City, Kansas and Kansas City, Missouri. Each cable contains many thin glass fibers, each about the width of a human hair. We’ll be taking these cables and weaving them into a fiber backbone — a completely new high speed infrastructure that will ultimately be carrying Kansas Citians’ data at speeds more than 100 times faster [emphasis added] than what most Americans have today. At first, we’ll focus on building this solid fiber backbone. Then, as soon as we have an infrastructure that is up and running, we’ll be able to connect Google Fiber into homes across Kansas City!"
Topic(s): Internet
http://googlefiberblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/weve-measured-utility-poles-weve.html
h/t to:
www.bespacific.com
http://www.bespacific.com
By Sabrina I. Pacifici - bespacificearthlinknet
AAIP
@AAIP
Re: KC
They ought to get a dose of reality in week 1...
They open up with a 3 game series on the road in Anahiem...
Gonna have to stare down Weaver, Dan Haren, & CJ Wilson on top of keeping Pujols & Co. off the bases... I'm interested to see if Kendrys Morales can get back to his 2009 form before the crazy injury...
I see maybe the Miami Marlins making the biggest improvement over last year...
Probably have to win 90 or 91 games to put you in the wild card picture...
Marlins won 72 last year... I could see an 18 game swing...
I heard the Nats are going to shut down Strasburg after 160 innings tops...
Assuming he goes about 7 innings a start (on average), that means he'll get about 23 starts (give or take)...
The Nats run a 5 man rotation, so looks like he'll be shutting down around mid-August...
Makes it a tough choice in drafting him for fantasy leagues...
Almost SURE he won't be on your team come playoff time (which are usually first 2 weeks in Sept)...
Assuming he pitches to form, he'll give you some quality play in the first half of the season, but in most fantasy drafts, he's going as a low 5th rounder... That's a lot to spend early...
Quotage..
"No pecuniary consideration is more urgent, than
the regular redemption and discharge of the public debt:
on none can delay be more injurious, or
an economy of time more valuable."
-- George Washington
(1732-1799) Founding Father, 1st US President, 'Father of the Country'
Source: 1793, Message to the House of Representatives, Ref: Washington's Maxims, 64
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/George.Washington.Quote.A320
"We have stricken the shackles from 4,000,000 human beings
and brought all labourers to a common level,
but not so much by the elevation of former slaves
as by reducing the whole working population,
white and black, to a condition of serfdom.
While boasting of our noble deeds,
we are careful to conceal the ugly fact
that by our iniquitous money system
we have manipulated a system of oppression which,
though more refined, is no less cruel than
the old system of chattel slavery."
-- Horace Greeley
(1811-1872) Editor of the New York Tribune, ran against Ulysses Grant for presidency
1872
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Horace.Greeley.Quote.B715
"The Founding Fathers of this great land had no difficulty whatsoever
understanding the agenda of bankers, and they frequently referred to them and
their kind as, quote, 'friends of paper money.' They hated the Bank of England,
in particular, and felt that even were we successful in winning our
independence from England and King George, we could never truly be a nation of
freemen, unless we had an honest money system. Through ignorance, but moreover,
because of apathy, a small, but wealthy, clique of power brokers have robbed us
of our Rights and Liberties, and we are being raped of our wealth. We are
paying the price for the near-comatose levels of complacency by our parents,
and only God knows what might become of our children, should we not work
diligently to shake this country from its slumber! Many a nation has lost its
freedom at the end of a gun barrel, but here in America, we just decided to
hand it over voluntarily. Worse yet, we paid for the tyranny and usurpation out
of our own pockets with "voluntary" tax contributions and the use of a
debt-laden fiat currency!"
-- Peter Kershaw
Author of the 1994 booklet "Economic Solutions"
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Peter.Kershaw.Quote.33E8
ibid.
More quotage:
"For it's ONE, TWO, THREE strikes you're out at the ol ball game..."
~Harry Carey
cv--
if Strasburg pitched ~160 innings, at anywhere near what he showed 'pre-Injury', and remained 'healthy'..that's be a major +, in my book..
not like he underwent major elbow re-construction, or anything..right?
AAIP
you want a 'Fantasy'-pitcher to Draft, pick up A. J. Burnett, now with the Buco's, in Pittsburgh..
you'll get, waay, mileage out of that..
@AAIP
Strasburg had 'Tommy John' surgery...
He's young enough that he can come back from that... Many top pitchers have recovered...
The problem isn't WHAT he'll do for you until August... The problem is that in fantasy, the playoffs start around Labor Day...
You could get your team into the playoffs, then be one & done...
cv--
'Tommy John' surgery = major elbow re-construction
and, please, Kindergarten was loong ago..
no need to re-visit such, is there?
ibid.
though, to repeat: "if Strasburg pitched ~160 innings, at anywhere near what he showed 'pre-Injury', and remained 'healthy'..that's be a major +, in my book.."
and, if you want a Pitcher that, virtually, no one else does, and, one that'll 'surprise' on the Upside..
take Burnett.
I don't know AAIP, his ERA has been in the fives now for two straight years and his SO's are down as well...you think he's got gas left?
maybe he'll face easier teams playing with the Bucs than he was in that AL division
I had Weaver AND Verlander on my fantasy squad last year and I still took 4th in my league
injuries and sit days in FBB are a major thing to watch, football is "easy" by comparison
McB,
I think a big part of the 'Problem', with Burnett, was the continual 'hootin' 'n hollerin'' from NYY-fan (esp. after his signing that Major League 'tract..)
There will be, waay, fewer 'White Lights' in the NL Central..
He, already, seems relieved to be out of 'the Bronx'..
+ when that cat is 'on', his 'stuff' is some of the best..
I think he, still, thinks that he can 'deal', and is looking to 'prove' it..
if somebody gave me the 'right' odds, I'd bet him for 20, or +, Wins..
in 'Fantasy-land' he'll be a 'steal'..
ibid.
I'm not against picking him (Burnett) up, maybe just in a later round though
I have to start thinking about this but currently I'm still in basketball mode
I used to love the Pirates when I was a kid, they were always good but just couldn't beat the Braves.
Ulnar Collateral Ligament Reconstruction (Tommy John Surgery ...new windowpreviewshow in cloudsflag as inappropriate
A Patient's Guide to Ulnar Collateral Ligament Reconstruction (Tommy John Surgery) Introduction The doctors call it a UCLR ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction.
http://www.eorthopod.com/content/ulnar-collateral-ligament-reconstruction-tommy-john-surgery
McB,
this: maybe just in a later round though
is the Idea..
in 'Fantasy-land', ~no one is going to be 'splashing out' for him..
~~~
right, then they Traded Bonds, after signing Van Slyke to the Major League 'tract..
haven't been over .500 since..
AAIP
basketball mode..
How 'bout those Sixers with the new (Old) logo?
talk about a "Change, We can believe in" :)
ibid.
04:08PM Don’t Overthink the 2012 Rally
(from Yahoo!)
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/dow-13-000-don-t-overthink-2012-rally-202901401.html?l=1
Translation: Hold'em Long 'n Strong, & JBTFD ~
AAIP
yeah, lovin the sixers this year, caught a game against the Hawks a few weeks back
fun team to watch, no superstar, though they've been on a bit of a slide here lately, that backcourt has to step it up (Holiday and Meeks in particular) they also have a very good coach, imo.
gotta run....
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