Creditcane™: Do you really believe I allowed Greece to be saved?
SPXSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held the 0.0% retrace (1359.44). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1349.96). QE2infinity.
DXYSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing the 61.8% minor retrace (79.60). Tested and failed SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.57).
VIXBullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.10).
GOLDBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (1721.30). Tested and held SMA(21). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1717.70). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(21). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (1.3222). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3253).
JNKSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (39.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.60).
10YR YIELDBullish short day. Tested and failed SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.47).
WTIBullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 61.8% retrace (102.44). New high on dally 3LB (reversal is 102.14). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERBullish long day. Tested and held SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (31.85). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 33.21).
BKXSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.62).
HYG/LQDSpinning top day. Holding above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7908).
USDJPYDoji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 38.2% retrace (78.990). New high on daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.46).
EEMBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above all SMA's. Holding above its 61.8% retrace (43.48). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.92).
COPPERBullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Failing its 50.0% retrace (3.863). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.978).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
26 comments:
With all of the hype over Dow touching 13k I looked at the Dow/Gold ratio in 5/2008 which was 13.629. This month the ratio is 9.582 so even though the Dow hit 13k its value is actually down 29.69%.
Thanks for the wrap AR. Was a really busy day in commodity land despite IP Week in London. Went to a local "new orleans" style restaurant tonight ... looking for a mile Mardi Gras feel...the place was packed, packed, packed.
Happy Fat Tuesday everyone.
Now, on to church tomorrow to forgive all my sins....hope they got some time on their hands to hear what i have to say.
Ra, 29.69%, wat about the divi's?
another DOW megaphone with a wedgie
GLD vs. GDX
...GDX is Heading For Nowhere
Copper has broken its 15 min down trend.. it cleared the 3.80 i mentioned lastnight as a bullish pinch level.
DJ trans divergence
State Energy Data System: Liquefied Petroleum Gases and Other Petroleum Products Through 2010
State Energy Data System: Liquefied Petroleum Gases and Other Petroleum Products Through 2010: "New releases of energy consumption, price, and expenditure estimates by energy source. Descriptions of the codes in the data files are listed here (xls)."
Topic(s): Government Documents
http://www.beSpacific.com
ibid.
How the hell do you go from a +5.0% revised to a -0.5%? Thanks NAR for you BS reports.
They accidentally were looking at copies of the BLS reports (& were reading them upside down)...
@AAIP (9:12)
The Ras Tanura export terminals (oil & LNG) in the Persian Gulf are among the largest in the world & only about 130 miles from Iran (that country that's 'likely' to get a whuppin' stick put on it)...
http://makanaka.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/saudi_aramco_ras_tanura_tank_farm.jpg
CV
I think the NAR & BLS were in the same statistics class in college.
You mean the one that everyone cheated off the same guys exam?
& he turned out to be the stoner who got a "D-"?... (but later went on to be Senator Blutarsky)?...
CV
Class motto: Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics. Yeah, so?
LMAO: I just remembered when the market being down 0.5% was considered a big deal.
Emotionless algos & bots, programmed to chase momentum, (making terabytes of unfathomable computational 'alternative universe' hypotheses) & co-located within 'short hairs' of the action...
Hmmm...
Where do I sign up (& how many 'commission free trades' do I get)? Or do I just get to keep the cheap plastic pen made in China?...
... at least the 'polymer' brothers & sisters of that plastic pen might have got to do something noble (like make it into somebody's rice dish, or the many other uses of plastic that humans have been clever enough to discover)...
All this talk about AAPL reversing because of a 5% intraday move. I don't see it. The weekly chart was forming a evening star but this week didn't gap lower (preferred) and it also doesn't appear it wants to close lower either. It's still above its 0.0% retrace (497.62) also. The daily chart had a bearish engulfing that wasn't confirmed. The daily moves have almost wiped out the damage from the long bearish day.
"Emotionless algos & bots, programmed to chase momentum"
this statement is, by itself, a contradiction
read it closely....
Coffee closed below its 61.8% retrace and 144SMA last week. Yay.
Ben - I would take the counter side on that and say it is not a contradiction, computers are machines that do nothing else then what they are told and (in this case) the algos are the language they speak.
They do not care one wit if the market goes up, down or sideways, they do not care if there is a war in the Middle East, or if China is conducting slave labor, they do not care how many shiny iThings are made or sold.
They only react to these events on how they are told.
But I garuntee the people writing the algos and maintaining the computers care and have great emotions and the more confidence they have in their algos the more confident they will become and we all know what happens when someone becomes overly confident.
Mangy Mutt
Mangy Mutt,
I have a simple question for you:
who, exactly, programs the computers? or who, exactly, is telling the computers how to react?
Lets say the simple answer is this: People
If a computer is in fact programmed to "chase momentum" then it automatically has a built in bias does it not? Why wouldn't an algo that is programmed to "chase earnings growth" or "define the lag impact of QE and its future impact on prices" or whatever.... be used instead? Someone has to make a call which may or may not be based entirely on objective data.
If a progam is written to ignore certain economic data releases and not others it has bias built into it. If a program is written to ignore movements in all stocks with a market cap less than X then it has a bias built into it. If an algo is written only to trade stocks that gap down on high volume over the next 20 trading days then it has a bias in it.... I could continue with endless examples.
If there is a built in bias one could generally conclude that there are emotions present
why?
going back to the idea of a momentum chasing algo....
Momentum measurement alone always involves some level of subjectivity, unless of course you can find me a momentum study with 100% accuracy in its forecasts, no drawdowns, and that also erases any question about the probability of future outcomes as the program only identifies promised winners.
Of course, you cannot produce such a thing because it does not exist.
Also, this:
"They do not care one wit if the market goes up, down or sideways, they do not care if there is a war in the Middle East, or if China is conducting slave labor, they do not care how many shiny iThings are made or sold"
doesn't prove your point or even bolster your argument in any way
Why?
For starters I can claim the same things about myself, anyone could, just like this: I don't care if the market goes up down or sideways, I don't really care if China is conducting slave labor or not, I don't care if Obama is president and so on, all I care about is the trend and how to make money off of it. I certainly don't care how many iPhones sold last month if I'm basing my analysis on AAPL on its price chart and other technical indicators.
In fact, I'd guess that ALL individual traders will make these claims at one point or another.
further, one could even argue that there are algos that are programmed to follow the exact things you just claimed they don't care about!
thus, I could go and program my own algo, which anyone can do through excel on any number of mechanical systems btw, and by the very way you framed this my bias/emotion will be present within it since I determine the inputs going into the algo and when they change if at all, it is not even entirely out of the question to consider a situation where the algo writers denies that he is wrong and that instead says to himself that the market is wrong....but thats an entirely different topic..., the program is written, at least in part or on some degree of scale, based on some of my own subjective conclusions about "what will work" since there is no program that can predict future results with absolute certainty.
I might make a last claim, which is that you seem to be stating that science and all study of it, because lets stop pretending that algo writers don't have total physics envy... is completely without emotion
and I must say, that concept is quite hilarious if one even has only a very general knowledge of past scientific "facts" and the "rationale" behind them
Ben “I have a simple question for you:” Nah that is not a simple question.
And although your (4:23) argument is well laid out, I believe either a) your premise is off balance or b) I misinterpreted it.
How I interpreted your premise is; It is a contradiction to say – computers (bots) can be programmed (Algos) to chase momentum. And in my point of view that is not a contradiction.
Computers are machines that have no, none, nada ability to think and or reason and are in fact emotionless, but they can be given pretty amazing instructions that make them appear to be “Thinking” but this is false, they are simply predicting.
If my understanding of your question is correct “who, exactly, programs the computers?” Then it is people and not just one people, but many people, who work on individual pieces of this code and more than likely one person does not know what the other people are doing, this code is then compiled into a program and the bugs are slowly worked out.
Also if my understanding of how this code works the computer splits out the input data to multiple processors that run “What if’s” - If headline “Bernanke Craps his pants” appears at 2:30 in the Washington Post, what will happen to the company that makes Depends. These processes are run millions of times per second and play off each out come until a “viable” outcome is reached And allows the HFT handlers to have a superfluous prediction of the future.
Each time they get it right, the code is tweaked, to make it more accurate and each time they get it wrong the code is tweaked.
So back to your premise, these HFT machines are most certainly programmed to not only chase, but create momentum, but because they are merely machines, they themselves have no emotions.
Mutt
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=w1
any bets that Ye Olde Shiny gets U$D 35+ ?
ibid.
MM,
unfortunately much like when we had the entirely pointless "time is money" conversation I think you are again missing the point or you simply didn't read the rest of that post or any of the countless other ignorant posts like that from CV
at the minimum its just another moronic yet slightly more concealed swipe at anybody trading in the markets
and just so you know, I do agree with you 100% that an inanimate object such as a computer, yes, certainly!, it can't technically have any emotions....
hilarious that I'm even trying to have a conversation with you about that.....
ibid
I'd take that bet, there's a trade set up there for sure
Ben (6:29) Could not agree with you more.
I enjoy thought provoking discussions, but somethings can get rather circular and that is no fun.
Mutt
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