Morning Corner 12.15.11

NFLX (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
low= 63.60
rev= 113.18; mid= 88.39

NFLX is trying to stop its down move but it doesn't appear they're having any success. It's still below all SMA's. It's still below the 61.8% minor retrace. SMA(21) is sloping down. MACD crossed above zero last week and Williams %R is not overbought so there's still a chance to move higher…NOT.

SODA (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new high 36.16
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 36.16
rev= 30.79; mid= 33.05

The weekly reversal up last week appears to be a head fake as it's not being confirmed this week. It's already back below the weekly 3LB mid. It's back below SMA(13) and nowhere near SMA(21). It's below the 61.8% retrace and has failed to hold the upper trend line.

3 Mth vs Overnite Libor (daily info)
-no change (above mid)
high= 0.405
rev= 0.392; mid= 0.399

The spread between 3 month and overnight libor is 151bp above the highs from 2010. Bottom line is that the situation has gone from bad to armageddon.


BinT said...

Census shows 1 in 2 people are poor or low-income

Nearly half of Americans are low-income as rising expenses, unemployment shrink middle class

BinT said...

Euro zone decline eases, recession still looks certain: PMI

AmenRa said...

Amazing how the economic reports are all much BTE when Santa has been reported to missing persons.

AmenRa said...

Industrial Production -0.2% - WTE
Capacity Utilization 77.8% - in line

ben22 said...

the income inequality rhetoric is hotter now than in 08 no doubt, however, there was a great discussion on this today on bloomberg radio, there is far less inequality now versus 2007 if one looks at the recent data, here's some background:

there was a prof on bloom this morning that was "pounding the table" on the fact that Washington continues to publish data that cuts off in 2007 when discussing income, this is what politicans are CURRENTLY quoting, this of course fuels the class warfare rhetoric and public discussion, further, he made a very good point backed up with numbers that at the very top of the income chain, the names only stay the same for a year or two, its in constant flux, staying at the top is rare

I'll stick with the idea that if one so desires, they can still "make it in America" and the facts are, as we stand here today, the "wealth gap" while still large by historical standards, has in fact gotten smaller since 2007.

Anonymous said...


as per usual, the worst impediment to 'Making It', in the U.S., or elsewhere, Today, or Yesteryear, is the Time spent complaining about ~"not being able to 'Make It'"..


AmenRa said...

It appears that someone in the market is not buying all of the BTE economic news. When you beat by 2-3 standard deviations something's amiss.

cv said...

the facts are, as we stand here today, the "wealth gap" while still large by historical standards, has in fact gotten smaller since 2007

"THE FACTS" are... just about anything anyone wants to make them out to be...

Just about anybody could go out and mine any set of data that if presented in the right way could confirm any bias that they wanted to seed...

Weath gap bigger, wealth gap smaller...

What the hell does that mean? What is WEALTH?

Rich fuck "A" lost a third in his billion dollar portfolio (net loss 333MM)...

Peggy Joseph & 1,650,000 of her closest friends got "food stamps" (so now basically get $200 more free dollars a year so they can use the proceeds to upgrade their iPhone)...

Gap neutral right?

What's changed? Do peggy & her friends feel "wealthier"?... Is rich fuck guy miserable because he can't go yacht shopping with Fuzzmaster 2000?

Who the hell knows?

I guess it keeps the chartmasters happy though...

ben22 said...


are you serious? data mining? by whom? this is not a semantics discussion, it's based on actual IRS tax data, which really shouldn't need an interpretation, its simply the numbers that came in.
the words wealth gap are in quotations because as should be obvious to anyone alive the last several years when politicians speak of "wealth" they are talking about incomes and the magic $250k, not assets, the IRS now tracks the $10 million income and above bracket, in 2007 there were roughly 13,000 filers in that bracket, in 2010 there were under 7,000 and the further point is that the assumption is the are all 7,000 that were already there before is incorrect, people fluctuate up and down the income scale their whole lives. If a person sells a business for 2 million they are in that bracket for one year, as an example.

Not everyone is named Lloyd Blankfein is the real point and so don't get suckered by rhetoric as things have further balanced out, yet as I plainly stated above are still above historical norms when looking at people at the top versus those at the bottom or in the middle

we know some/many people were kept in that bracket above as a direct result of government bailouts while at the same time the same administration smartly puts out 2007 data rather than publishing figures from after that period and screams about ineqaulity, the very inequality they help to maintain rather than just letting the markets correct the rest of it.

AmenRa said...

Pretty good interview at Bloomberg:

cv said...

it's based on actual IRS tax data

IRS tax data huh?

You mean that IRS tax data where the lower income people tend to file an the EZ Form because its quicker & easier, and they can get their refund back faster along with the earned income tax credits, & government rebates & freebies that they got like at the end of the "W" Presidency...


the higher income people use every loophole in the book to essentially put them in Jeff Immelt-ville?

I believe I read somewhere anecdotally that Warren Buffett payed less tax (percentage wise) than his secretary...

If that's the data you're using, then sure, I'll go along, the gap between the rich & poor is shrinking...

Soon St. Warren's secretary will be his boss...

cv said...


I notice the charts today are NFLX & SODA

ror - touche'

Nobody ever accused Amen Ra of NOT having a sense of humor :-)

AmenRa said...

If you look at a 30 min SPX chart then you'll see a triangle that wants resolution.

AmenRa said...


Thanks for reminding me. I need to look at DPZ and YUM.

AmenRa said...

That triangles apex is around 3:30. Just sayin'

BinT said...

German Manufacturing Contracts 3rd Month

AmenRa said...

Still waiting for the rumor of the day that will be used to try and resurrect Santa.

AmenRa said...

Especially now that France is calling out Britain on their AAA status.

ben22 said...


first, what type of return people fill out does not change what I'm talking about, at all.

Second I happily use every "loophole" in the book myself. That still doesn't mean I don't have to report all my income to the IRS, give me a break.

repeating such tripe as "WB pays less percentage marginal rate than his sec."

here's a link to the marginal rates in 2010, we'll assume WB pays the 15% rate on his income:

if his secretary is single she didn't have a single dollar taxed at that rate until she made:

income between $34,000 and $82,400;

I highly doubt that WB's secretary made $34,001 in 2010 and if she did, only ONE dollar was taxed at 25% anyway, she did not pay 25% on all of it, in which case she did not "pay a higher percentage than he did" her effective tax rate at $34,001 of annual income is likely less than Buffett's at 15%.

besides, my guess is WB's secretary makes closer to six figures

poor thing.....he/she should make the same as Buffett shouldn't he/she?

really though, your second response to me was entirely pointless, you've just been in a mood to tell everyone here what you think you know the last two days, so I understand where its coming from

bottom line: the governement is perpetuating a myth by trying to claim that the "wealth gap" is getting worse since 2007, it's not, its getting better. The only reason it is likely not almost fully corrected by now is because as I said, they bailed out a number of shops that artifically allowed people to stay in those higher brackets when they should have been out of work.

AmenRa said...
S&P Cuts Ratings Of Ten Spanish Banks

AmenRa said...

TED spread
0.4482 June 2010
0.5490 today

AmenRa said...
Fitch Downgrades 8 Global Banks Including BNP, SocGen, BofA, Deutsche, Morgan Stanley And UBS

Every day after close it is one endless downgrade parade in which any of the permutations of rating agencies and either European sovereigns or banks get up and start playing musical chairs with each other. Then proceed to sit down for the overnight session. One of these days all the chairs will have been pulled. The banks cut are Bank of America, Barclays, BNP, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Societe Generale, UBS. Now we know that even creditors do not want to trigger any ratings downgrade covenants because it would offset what is likely a terminal margin call, but at some point someone will need to do through the various bond docs and find out just who (ahem Bank of America) will need to post far far higher collateral as a result of all these relentless downgrades.

From Fitch


Fitch Ratings-New York-15 December 2011: Fitch Ratings has today taken rating actions on nine global trading and universal banks (GTUBs). The actions complete its assessment of the GTUBs, carried out in conjunction with a broad review of the ratings for the largest banking institutions in the world. Fitch has downgraded eight issuers' Viability Ratings (VRs) and affirmed one, removing them from Rating Watch Negative where they were placed on Oct. 13, 2011.

AmenRa said...

On that note does anyone get the feeling that S&P will downgrade a sovereign(s) after a Friday close?

Post a Comment


This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.