"Hannibal was a wuss. The Alps are easy to navigate with the right animal."
Creditcane™: Spreading my type of holiday cheer over the markets.
SPXBearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Tested and failed the 38.2% retrace (1241.13). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1261.01). QE2infinity. Still above weekly 3LB mid and back below the monthly 3LB mid.
DXYBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed the 100.0% retrace (79.60). Holding above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.28). Confirming the monthly 3LB reversal up.
VIXBearish short day (huh?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (26.16). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 48.00). The grip of the "fear" zone has been eliminated (for now).
GOLDBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (1718.10). Tested and failed SMA(55,144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1643.50). Must have the precious.
EURUSDBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 100.0% retrace (1.3350). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3464).
JNKBullish short day (still closed lower though). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(89). Failing its 50.0% retrace (38.24). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 38.30).
10YR YIELDBearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (21.37). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 19.39).
WTIBearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace (101.74). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 101.28). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERBearish short day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (31.85). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.65).
BKXBearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(89). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (38.43). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.05).
HYG/LQDBearish harami day. Failing SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7693).
USDJPYBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(21). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (77.740). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.70).
COPPERBearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (3.452). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.391).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
15 comments:
Ummm...
On the Ag charts... There would appear to be some kind of "confluence" coming (AFTER the YE bonuses are paid out, of course) between the 10, 21, & 55 MA's, which 'could' end up being a golden cross...
MUSIC ACCOMPANYMENT (on MA's)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_odTlZaoLCA&ob=av2e
Interestingly... the price level it comes at the same FIBO ratio (on the opposite side), where the DARK CROSS occurred at the beginning of the meat of the correction a few months ago...
JUST SAYING...
My interpretation... Come January, 'they're' going to start PRINTING like a mofo... (But make sure you sheeple go out there & buy all your Chinese manufactured X-Mas baubles over the next few weeks... run up the bill on the plastic card... & pay no mind to that coin dealer over there behind the curtain...
further thoughts at end of last thread - on copper...
CV
@Amen
Hannibal WASN'T a wuss...
"Vinegar & Fire Bitchez!"... I've used that technique myself before... Pure genius!
@Amen
The battle of Lake Trasimene (Trasimeno)...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Lake_Trasimene
It was only about 7 miles (as the crow flies) from CV's 'crib' in Italia...
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-h61puZHC6pU/TuaFdXERCcI/AAAAAAAAEH0/YF1rHMcRqVM/s1600/hannibal.JPG
You know... The 'non-existent' one... ror
cv--
did you see what happened to 'Cougar High'?
now 12-1, after losing to So.Miss., yon' 'Golden Eagles', now, the Cougs, are in the "Sandusky Bowl"..to play PennState..
wtf? is that right?/fair?
ibid.
@AAIP
"Cougars vs. "Nittany Cougars"...
Can't say I object (on morals)... Could be the start of a new PORN DVD series... You never kno...
CV
Sarcasm. Hannibal held down Italy for at least a decade. This time it's the "bears" converging on Italy.
Shocker. Was reading ritholtz and he's completely in favor of the %ofAUM as a good model for investors because the investors and advisors are on the same page.
That's pretty funny stuff....
No mention there about how bad the model is in a low/zero interest rate environment....
I'm surprised any of the asset advisory models are still surviving in this backdrop....
Note: there's always room for a good advisor who has a good track ... But, c'mon....by statistical definition, at least half the advisors are going to be below average...and if you're below average taking 1.5-2.0 pct in a market where the 10 year yield is approaching a similar return....then that's not awesome.
AT,
on the retail side consider the alternatives if you work with an advisor though:
1. Load mutual funds where you either put all your money with one mutual fund company to attempt to hit a breakpoint which is a great deal if you have 3/4 of a million to invest and don't have any plans to leave the fund family, but most people are still paying 1-5% up-front and an on-going fee via the 12b-1.
2. or go traditional commissions, which again, if you are working with an advisor they are going to run near 2% + and those types of accounts typically carry custodial fees
3. last, not saying they are all like this, but I know plenty of "fee only" advisors that "don't charge" for investment advice and just happen to do $10,000/yr "financial plans" for people with assets in no-load funds
I'm 100% convinced the wrap platform is the best for most retail clients that want any kind of active asset management and it does give the client the most flexibility to walk if they aren't happy with the advisor. As for the returns, well, one year doesn't make a decade and that "risk free" rate, and there are plenty of hedge funds that have lost money this year, where accredited investors pay 2 and 20....or more
Hussman 12/12/11
quote:
"As I noted last week, what investors really want isn't just for someone to buy distressed European debt, but for someone to buy that debt and willingly take a loss on it so the money doesn't ever actually have to be repaid. This is a solvency issue - a shortfall between money owed and the resources to credibly repay it. There is no legal trick to get around that. Ultimately, you either have to restore credibility, or you have to restructure the claims through default or devaluation."
The hedge fund incentive based model is bad, as it stands, but it can be made into an ideal model with a couple of small tweaks.
First, the ad valorem fee needs to be less than 50 bps.
Second, the incentive fees collected need to be placed in an escrow and then released annually on a rolling basis after a predetermined number of years (three to five to make sure you capture a large part of the business cycle) and only released it certain medium term performance objectives are met (otherwise, the escrow is returned to the investor(s)). There are a number of ways this could be implemented, but the key point is that they need to earn those fees before they are released.
The fact that the average hedge fund lasts about 4 years tells me that they are just biting off outsize beta during boom years, collecting large incentive fees, and then closing shop when their strategies turn against them. Without clawback provisions, they face no ill consequences and then start over again during the next up-cycle.
This is the primary flaw with the high water-mark provisions that are sometimes expressed in the investment contracts with hedge funds. If they fall below the HWM, managers just close up shop and start a new hedge fund with the basis reset. The escrow resolves this obvious flaw (n.b., the HWM can be implemented as part of the criteria for release of fees from escrow to the investment manager).
BTW: Hello everyone. Some days I regret not staying retired. I miss swapping market anecdotes all day here.
B22, maybe, this guy has a different approach to investing.
http://www.rickferri.com/blog/
I know I hate what WFC charges me to hold my 401k but only in it for the near 20% yearly match, now you can't get that instant return on that years donation. my god, I control my own investments with them and just to park my money in their MM fund, they have monthly asset fees.
( 12/09/11 Wells Fargo Stable Return G Pretax Asset Fees -$xx.xx AND 12/09/11 Wells Fargo Stable Return G ER MATCH Asset Fees -$xx.xx )
out of all SDS calls today, 1/4oz gold eagle. i know, everyone keeps saying it was going to churn, but 3 days of no direction on top of 4 months.
weekly bearish,
monthly bearish,
daily brutal.
neutral on the daily now,
prolly up tomorrow...
employment level from bls.gov
JAN-09 142,201,000
NOV-11 140,580,000
just saying...
L
ØBAMA
S
E
R
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